scbriml wrote:telmat wrote:scbriml wrote:They talk a good talk, but when was the last time the Russian aviation sector met a target date?
Its war and the military also depends on a working civil aviation and other civil industries. Making predictions based on the performance of the pre-war industries isn't giving you the full picture. It is really all speculation.
There's really not much speculation involved. The Russian civil aviation sector faces massive challenges. There's zero evidence currently that they're able to overcome those challenges in anything approaching a timely fashion. As for war, Russia is struggling to replace military equipment that it's burning through.
telmat wrote:They do not need to compete with anyone. They simply need something that can replace their western fleets. Fuel economy, latest avionics is of secondary concern to them.
The huge question is, what are they going to replace their Airbuses and Boeings with? There's nothing available in anything like the numbers needed.
pro-russia crowd would say that that they will make their own, especially if the West stops meddling.
(of course, by "meddling" they mean allowing Ukraine to defend itself).
For example, if ruskies were allowed to capture Kyiv and Zaporizhia, they would have both Antonov and Motor-Sich under control. This would mean they could have a strong supply of D-436 family engines for small airplanes out there -- Tu-334 (yes, they are still trying to re-start that program, 34 years after official launch), Beriev amphibians, possibly to re-engine SSJ, and of course for An-148 series.
Possibly, they would restart An-148 series, in Kyiv, too.
Maybe those "twin Il-96 series" would be less of a pipedream -- they could build medium-haul mass carriers, just hanging D-18's under them.
So they could have a sensible cannibalization program for existing frames, to keep them running, while restarting russian production, supported with designs and supplies from occupied Ukraine.
Alas, Ukraine is shooting back, and these plans don't work.
And in russia, Rybinskie Motory and Permskie Motory apparently are much less competent in engine building, than russia likes to present...