Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
myki wrote:UL has been one of those "quiet achievers" that flew throughout the pandemic. With Western Australia opening and pent-up demand for travel, could it be a golden opportunity for them to add CMB-PER to their network?
myki wrote:UL has been one of those "quiet achievers" that flew throughout the pandemic. With Western Australia opening and pent-up demand for travel, could it be a golden opportunity for them to add CMB-PER to their network?
Obzerva wrote:An out there one, but with VA and UA now teaming up, any chance that UA's forgotten little route might make a return one day.
CNS-GUM ran for ages before eventually being discontinued.
Wondering if the fact UA soon having a partner at the Australian end would help support a comeback once normal travel capacities eventually return.
Obzerva wrote:An out there one, but with VA and UA now teaming up, any chance that UA's forgotten little route might make a return one day.
CNS-GUM ran for ages before eventually being discontinued.
Wondering if the fact UA soon having a partner at the Australian end would help support a comeback once normal travel capacities eventually return.
A350OZ wrote:Obzerva wrote:An out there one, but with VA and UA now teaming up, any chance that UA's forgotten little route might make a return one day.
CNS-GUM ran for ages before eventually being discontinued.
Wondering if the fact UA soon having a partner at the Australian end would help support a comeback once normal travel capacities eventually return.
I was thinking about this one the other day! What was the target market? FNQ people connecting in GUM to East Asia and US, or US service personell in the Pacific holidaying in FNQ?
A350OZ wrote:Obzerva wrote:An out there one, but with VA and UA now teaming up, any chance that UA's forgotten little route might make a return one day.
CNS-GUM ran for ages before eventually being discontinued.
Wondering if the fact UA soon having a partner at the Australian end would help support a comeback once normal travel capacities eventually return.
I was thinking about this one the other day! What was the target market? FNQ people connecting in GUM to East Asia and US, or US service personell in the Pacific holidaying in FNQ?
ben175 wrote:myki wrote:UL has been one of those "quiet achievers" that flew throughout the pandemic. With Western Australia opening and pent-up demand for travel, could it be a golden opportunity for them to add CMB-PER to their network?
PER-CMB could be a fantastic 321neo route, particularly if nobody enters the direct WA-India market. QF actually sells quite a lot of through-tickets onto UL flights from SYD/MEL to India, especially for lower-yielding pax.
tullamarine wrote:A350OZ wrote:Obzerva wrote:An out there one, but with VA and UA now teaming up, any chance that UA's forgotten little route might make a return one day.
CNS-GUM ran for ages before eventually being discontinued.
Wondering if the fact UA soon having a partner at the Australian end would help support a comeback once normal travel capacities eventually return.
I was thinking about this one the other day! What was the target market? FNQ people connecting in GUM to East Asia and US, or US service personell in the Pacific holidaying in FNQ?
I assume the route was supported by a corporate contract of some sort, probably the US Defence Department.
Tdan wrote:tullamarine wrote:A350OZ wrote:
I was thinking about this one the other day! What was the target market? FNQ people connecting in GUM to East Asia and US, or US service personell in the Pacific holidaying in FNQ?
I assume the route was supported by a corporate contract of some sort, probably the US Defence Department.
The route lived on 9x Japanese cities connecting one stop in GUM to the reef. It was 90%+ Japan point of sale. With flat to declining visitation as well as the reduced GUM hub size, the market went away. JQ seves the remaining market well.
jrfspa320 wrote:PER-CMB is actually a long route - it would be longer than AKL-PER. Would need the range of A321LR if not the XLR neither of which UL has on order. They have just retired all of their A330-200s so nothing smaller than an A330-300 that would be capable - would be too big.
Tdan wrote:tullamarine wrote:A350OZ wrote:
I was thinking about this one the other day! What was the target market? FNQ people connecting in GUM to East Asia and US, or US service personell in the Pacific holidaying in FNQ?
I assume the route was supported by a corporate contract of some sort, probably the US Defence Department.
The route lived on 9x Japanese cities connecting one stop in GUM to the reef. It was 90%+ Japan point of sale. With flat to declining visitation as well as the reduced GUM hub size, the market went away. JQ seves the remaining market well.
jrfspa320 wrote:ben175 wrote:myki wrote:UL has been one of those "quiet achievers" that flew throughout the pandemic. With Western Australia opening and pent-up demand for travel, could it be a golden opportunity for them to add CMB-PER to their network?
PER-CMB could be a fantastic 321neo route, particularly if nobody enters the direct WA-India market. QF actually sells quite a lot of through-tickets onto UL flights from SYD/MEL to India, especially for lower-yielding pax.
PER-CMB is actually a long route - it would be longer than AKL-PER. Would need the range of A321LR if not the XLR neither of which UL has on order. They have just retired all of their A330-200s so nothing smaller than an A330-300 that would be capable - would be too big.
Tdan wrote:tullamarine wrote:A350OZ wrote:
I was thinking about this one the other day! What was the target market? FNQ people connecting in GUM to East Asia and US, or US service personell in the Pacific holidaying in FNQ?
I assume the route was supported by a corporate contract of some sort, probably the US Defence Department.
The route lived on 9x Japanese cities connecting one stop in GUM to the reef. It was 90%+ Japan point of sale. With flat to declining visitation as well as the reduced GUM hub size, the market went away. JQ seves the remaining market well.
RyanairGuru wrote:Tdan wrote:tullamarine wrote:I assume the route was supported by a corporate contract of some sort, probably the US Defence Department.
The route lived on 9x Japanese cities connecting one stop in GUM to the reef. It was 90%+ Japan point of sale. With flat to declining visitation as well as the reduced GUM hub size, the market went away. JQ seves the remaining market well.
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The route was almost entirely Japan POS, topped up with some Guam-based US Defense personnel flying to Cairns during leave. CO’s historically large presence in secondary Japanese markets helped, as it provided convenient one-stop flights to those cities.
The inbound Japanese leisure market to Queensland beaches was once massive, but has been stagnant/declining for over a decade. Jetstar serve the remaining inbound leisure market well, although even their routes were seeing increasing levels of transfer traffic to SYD/MEL. It’s notable that all of the recent growth to Japan (pre-pandemic) was to SYD/MEL/BNE/PER, with even BNE-TYO largely serving Brisbane rather than Queensland beach markets.
jrfspa320 wrote:ben175 wrote:myki wrote:UL has been one of those "quiet achievers" that flew throughout the pandemic. With Western Australia opening and pent-up demand for travel, could it be a golden opportunity for them to add CMB-PER to their network?
PER-CMB could be a fantastic 321neo route, particularly if nobody enters the direct WA-India market. QF actually sells quite a lot of through-tickets onto UL flights from SYD/MEL to India, especially for lower-yielding pax.
PER-CMB is actually a long route - it would be longer than AKL-PER. Would need the range of A321LR if not the XLR neither of which UL has on order. They have just retired all of their A330-200s so nothing smaller than an A330-300 that would be capable - would be too big.
A350OZ wrote:RyanairGuru wrote:Tdan wrote:
The route lived on 9x Japanese cities connecting one stop in GUM to the reef. It was 90%+ Japan point of sale. With flat to declining visitation as well as the reduced GUM hub size, the market went away. JQ seves the remaining market well.
![]()
The route was almost entirely Japan POS, topped up with some Guam-based US Defense personnel flying to Cairns during leave. CO’s historically large presence in secondary Japanese markets helped, as it provided convenient one-stop flights to those cities.
The inbound Japanese leisure market to Queensland beaches was once massive, but has been stagnant/declining for over a decade. Jetstar serve the remaining inbound leisure market well, although even their routes were seeing increasing levels of transfer traffic to SYD/MEL. It’s notable that all of the recent growth to Japan (pre-pandemic) was to SYD/MEL/BNE/PER, with even BNE-TYO largely serving Brisbane rather than Queensland beach markets.
Thank you Tdan and RyanairGuru for these insights, very interesting!
Maybe off-topic for the AU forum, but out of interest where did the Japanese demand for tropical beaches move to? Because I know similar to QLD, New Caledonia while a small market by itself was also very heavily dominated by JP tourists in the ‘90s and ‘00s, but those numbers have also dwindled over the past 10-15 years.
qf2220 wrote:jrfspa320 wrote:ben175 wrote:
PER-CMB could be a fantastic 321neo route, particularly if nobody enters the direct WA-India market. QF actually sells quite a lot of through-tickets onto UL flights from SYD/MEL to India, especially for lower-yielding pax.
PER-CMB is actually a long route - it would be longer than AKL-PER. Would need the range of A321LR if not the XLR neither of which UL has on order. They have just retired all of their A330-200s so nothing smaller than an A330-300 that would be capable - would be too big.
Sounds like a possible QF A321 route perhaps?
qf2048 wrote:Just having a quick look at ZL's schedule on CBR-SYD. They seemed to have quietly reduced capacity on that route from when they first started out. Quick search on Flight Centre for next Monday to Syd. QF have 13 flights with ZL just having two. VA have yet to start ( using Link Saabs) so it's only going to get a lot more crowded. I would imagine QF and VA (will) have a major advantage with their respective FF base?
qf2220 wrote:A350OZ wrote:RyanairGuru wrote:
![]()
The route was almost entirely Japan POS, topped up with some Guam-based US Defense personnel flying to Cairns during leave. CO’s historically large presence in secondary Japanese markets helped, as it provided convenient one-stop flights to those cities.
The inbound Japanese leisure market to Queensland beaches was once massive, but has been stagnant/declining for over a decade. Jetstar serve the remaining inbound leisure market well, although even their routes were seeing increasing levels of transfer traffic to SYD/MEL. It’s notable that all of the recent growth to Japan (pre-pandemic) was to SYD/MEL/BNE/PER, with even BNE-TYO largely serving Brisbane rather than Queensland beach markets.
Thank you Tdan and RyanairGuru for these insights, very interesting!
Maybe off-topic for the AU forum, but out of interest where did the Japanese demand for tropical beaches move to? Because I know similar to QLD, New Caledonia while a small market by itself was also very heavily dominated by JP tourists in the ‘90s and ‘00s, but those numbers have also dwindled over the past 10-15 years.
Happy to be corrected if wrong, but i dont think it moved anywhere but just stopped. Japan was in an economic boom in the 90s but this has changed, and coupled with a negative population growth rate (there is now 2m less Japanese than there were in 2010), the economy of Japan has changed and overseas beach holidays to Australia are not the done thing anywhere near as much as they were.
Travlling through Japan you can see lots of towns that are also casualties of this population and therefore tourism decline - Hakone for example has many abandoned houses and clearly is a former tourist hotspot that isnt so hot anymore..
tullamarine wrote:qf2220 wrote:jrfspa320 wrote:
PER-CMB is actually a long route - it would be longer than AKL-PER. Would need the range of A321LR if not the XLR neither of which UL has on order. They have just retired all of their A330-200s so nothing smaller than an A330-300 that would be capable - would be too
Sounds like a possible QF A321 route perhaps?
Given most of the Sri Lankan diaspora in Australia is in Melbourne, I would suggest the existing direct UL A333 service remains the best way of servicing this largely VFR and tourist market. Just because an A321XLR could make the PER-CMB flight, doesn't mean it is actually a good business proposition.
Qantasman66 wrote:tullamarine wrote:qf2220 wrote:Given most of the Sri Lankan diaspora in Australia is in Melbourne, I would suggest the existing direct UL A333 service remains the best way of servicing this largely VFR and tourist market. Just because an A321XLR could make the PER-CMB flight, doesn't mean it is actually a good business proposition.
Is the Sydney to Colombo service on UL permanent now? I’ve never seen any articles on the service to say they flight to syd on a permanent basis.
a19901213 wrote:Just for the record the Japanese tourism to Australia had been declining from early 90s to early 10s but has been getting some momentum back since mid 2010s before covid hit us.
Ever since ANA/QF moved to Haneda they have been aggressively advertising Australia travel and actually did quite well luring Japanese visitors.
a19901213 wrote:Just for the record the Japanese tourism to Australia had been declining from early 90s to early 10s but has been getting some momentum back since mid 2010s before covid hit us.
Ever since ANA/QF moved to Haneda they have been aggressively advertising Australia travel and actually did quite well luring Japanese visitors.
kriskim wrote:
I think it’s also a generation thing too, Melbourne for example has been attracting more younger Japanese tourists whilst outbound has also gotten stronger, Melbournians are taking more trips to Japan as a preferred holiday destination. If it wasn’t for the pandemic, I think MEL-KIX could work well too.
From no service to 2 daily service by QF and JL, MEL has proven to be a lucrative market to Japan. There was always business demand from large Japanese companies, but there has been a surge in O&D demand in recent years.
anstar wrote:jrfspa320 wrote:ben175 wrote:
PER-CMB could be a fantastic 321neo route, particularly if nobody enters the direct WA-India market. QF actually sells quite a lot of through-tickets onto UL flights from SYD/MEL to India, especially for lower-yielding pax.
PER-CMB is actually a long route - it would be longer than AKL-PER. Would need the range of A321LR if not the XLR neither of which UL has on order. They have just retired all of their A330-200s so nothing smaller than an A330-300 that would be capable - would be too big.
I think PER-CMB/PER-AKL are more XLR routes than LR... JQ get their first neoLR this year but don't thi nk the XLR's come until 2024
NZ321 wrote:anstar wrote:jrfspa320 wrote:
PER-CMB is actually a long route - it would be longer than AKL-PER. Would need the range of A321LR if not the XLR neither of which UL has on order. They have just retired all of their A330-200s so nothing smaller than an A330-300 that would be capable - would be too big.
I think PER-CMB/PER-AKL are more XLR routes than LR... JQ get their first neoLR this year but don't thi nk the XLR's come until 2024
Just to put things in perspective; PR already regularly flies A321 MNL-SYD/BNE with an A321LR, yes? If I recall, this was already happening pre pandemic. MNL-SYD is 3879 nm vs CMB-PER is shorter 3592; so not sure if PER-CMB really needs an XLR. The current LR should be able to do it.
a19901213 wrote:Just for the record the Japanese tourism to Australia had been declining from early 90s to early 10s but has been getting some momentum back since mid 2010s before covid hit us.
Ever since ANA/QF moved to Haneda they have been aggressively advertising Australia travel and actually did quite well luring Japanese visitors.
RyanairGuru wrote:a19901213 wrote:Just for the record the Japanese tourism to Australia had been declining from early 90s to early 10s but has been getting some momentum back since mid 2010s before covid hit us.
Ever since ANA/QF moved to Haneda they have been aggressively advertising Australia travel and actually did quite well luring Japanese visitors.
Yes, but the demand is more diversified. Melbourne, as said, and also Perth had gained relative popularity, while the seven-nights-on-a-beach market was in significant decline. I agree with others that it is largely generational.
SCFlyer wrote:NZ321 wrote:anstar wrote:
I think PER-CMB/PER-AKL are more XLR routes than LR... JQ get their first neoLR this year but don't thi nk the XLR's come until 2024
Just to put things in perspective; PR already regularly flies A321 MNL-SYD/BNE with an A321LR, yes? If I recall, this was already happening pre pandemic. MNL-SYD is 3879 nm vs CMB-PER is shorter 3592; so not sure if PER-CMB really needs an XLR. The current LR should be able to do it.
PR uses a standard A321neo on MNL-SYD/BNE.
tullamarine wrote:SCFlyer wrote:NZ321 wrote:
Just to put things in perspective; PR already regularly flies A321 MNL-SYD/BNE with an A321LR, yes? If I recall, this was already happening pre pandemic. MNL-SYD is 3879 nm vs CMB-PER is shorter 3592; so not sure if PER-CMB really needs an XLR. The current LR should be able to do it.
PR uses a standard A321neo on MNL-SYD/BNE.
I think the restricting issue for a standard A321neo on PER-CMB would be a lack of diversionary options. By comparison, SYD-MNL has lots of en-route options.
qf789 wrote:Bamboo Airways to add 1 weekly MEL-HAN from 27 April 22
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... oi-flights
kriskim wrote:qf789 wrote:Bamboo Airways to add 1 weekly MEL-HAN from 27 April 22
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... oi-flights
Great news! Finally MEL is connected non-stop to HAN, I think it will be a very successful route for the airline!
Vietnam routes from Australia:
Bamboo Airways:
Melbourne - Hanoi
Melbourne - Ho Chi Minh City
Sydney - Ho Chi Minh City
Vietnam Airlines:
Melbourne - Ho Chi Minh City
Sydney - Hanoi
Sydney - Ho Chi Minh City
Jetstar Airways:
Melbourne - Ho Chi Minh City
Sydney - Ho Chi Minh City
3 airlines competing on both MEL/SYD-SGN, whilst QH has edged out VN to launch HAN from MEL.
oskarclare wrote:kriskim wrote:qf789 wrote:Bamboo Airways to add 1 weekly MEL-HAN from 27 April 22
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... oi-flights
Great news! Finally MEL is connected non-stop to HAN, I think it will be a very successful route for the airline!
Vietnam routes from Australia:
Bamboo Airways:
Melbourne - Hanoi
Melbourne - Ho Chi Minh City
Sydney - Ho Chi Minh City
Vietnam Airlines:
Melbourne - Ho Chi Minh City
Sydney - Hanoi
Sydney - Ho Chi Minh City
Jetstar Airways:
Melbourne - Ho Chi Minh City
Sydney - Ho Chi Minh City
3 airlines competing on both MEL/SYD-SGN, whilst QH has edged out VN to launch HAN from MEL.
I am surprised Bamboo or Vietnam have still not launched SGN-BNE. BNE could very easily support a 2x weekly flight there building up to 4x weekly. I wonder if also VN or QH or even VJ could operate SGN-PER with 321neo's
oskarclare wrote:kriskim wrote:qf789 wrote:Bamboo Airways to add 1 weekly MEL-HAN from 27 April 22
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... oi-flights
Great news! Finally MEL is connected non-stop to HAN, I think it will be a very successful route for the airline!
Vietnam routes from Australia:
Bamboo Airways:
Melbourne - Hanoi
Melbourne - Ho Chi Minh City
Sydney - Ho Chi Minh City
Vietnam Airlines:
Melbourne - Ho Chi Minh City
Sydney - Hanoi
Sydney - Ho Chi Minh City
Jetstar Airways:
Melbourne - Ho Chi Minh City
Sydney - Ho Chi Minh City
3 airlines competing on both MEL/SYD-SGN, whilst QH has edged out VN to launch HAN from MEL.
I am surprised Bamboo or Vietnam have still not launched SGN-BNE. BNE could very easily support a 2x weekly flight there building up to 4x weekly. I wonder if also VN or QH or even VJ could operate SGN-PER with 321neo's