Appears Aeroflot has cancelled all flights outside of Russia except for Belarus
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national ... s/2661708/

***edit - it takes effect March 8

SU150 SVO-HAV A350-900 VP-BYF is going through Gandar FIR now, thought Canada has banned all Russian flights?
https://fr24.com/AFL150/2b07cee0

I guess the ban apply only to Canadian airspace.

bourbon wrote:

Appears Aeroflot has cancelled all flights outside of Russia except for Belarus
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national ... s/2661708/

***edit - it takes effect March 8

I guess it takes effect on March 6 for flights from Russia. March 8 is for flight going back.

Scanorama wrote:

SU150 SVO-HAV A350-900 VP-BYF is going through Gandar FIR now, thought Canada has banned all Russian flights?
https://fr24.com/AFL150/2b07cee0

AFL150 is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean over international waters...what exactly is the problem here?

Scanorama wrote:

SU150 SVO-HAV A350-900 VP-BYF is going through Gandar FIR now, thought Canada has banned all Russian flights?
https://fr24.com/AFL150/2b07cee0

So they would still have access to the oceanic airspace that Canada controls - that is not "Canadian Airspace", just controlled by them.

That's one way to deal with the threat of lessors repossessing aircraft.

I'm surprised they aren't interested in/willing to/able to operate flights into friendly countries like Iran or China. Both can be done without overflying "unfriendly" airspace (in case of diversion). Is Belarus really the only country they trust will not play along with lessors' legal repossession requests? Or is it not worth flying to those countries anymore now that the Moscow hub is gone? Or is China something that could come back once they ease the zero-Covid policy there? I would have thought that Russia-China flights were mostly O/D traffic, not international connections.

RT is showing a live conference between Putin and female Aeroflot pilots and flight attendants. It's the usual nonsense justifications and embellishments. But I can't help but feel sad for these hardworking professionals who are losing their livelihoods thanks to sanctions.

I have no idea how many leased planes are used in China but maybe someone there told the Russians not to force Chinese government to chose who they want to get angry with.

MalevTU134 wrote:

I'm surprised they aren't interested in/willing to/able to operate flights into friendly countries like Iran or China. Both can be done without overflying "unfriendly" airspace (in case of diversion). Is Belarus really the only country they trust will not play along with lessors' legal repossession requests? Or is it not worth flying to those countries anymore now that the Moscow hub is gone? Or is China something that could come back once they ease the zero-Covid policy there? I would have thought that Russia-China flights were mostly O/D traffic, not international connections.

Right now one of the few international routes still operating is actually to/from Tel Aviv !

rutankrd wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

I'm surprised they aren't interested in/willing to/able to operate flights into friendly countries like Iran or China. Both can be done without overflying "unfriendly" airspace (in case of diversion). Is Belarus really the only country they trust will not play along with lessors' legal repossession requests? Or is it not worth flying to those countries anymore now that the Moscow hub is gone? Or is China something that could come back once they ease the zero-Covid policy there? I would have thought that Russia-China flights were mostly O/D traffic, not international connections.

Right now one of the few international routes still operating is actually to/from Tel Aviv !

Yes, but Israel has not closed its airspace to Russian aircraft, mainly due to domestic and regional political concerns. Not because they side with Russia in the conflict. And the order to stop flights is valid from tomorrow, March 6th. TLV flights will stop operating, too.

I am surprised Russia doesn't trust countries like Armenia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan not to do as they are told by Moscow. Usually these countries listen carefully to instructions from Putin...

davidjohnson6 wrote:

I am surprised Russia doesn't trust countries like Armenia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan not to do as they are told by Moscow. Usually these countries listen carefully to instructions from Putin...

Well, S7 got one of their A320s repossessed in Yerevan the other day, so that may be understandable. That got S7 to drop all their international flights.
But Iran and China play in a different league, I would have thought.

MIflyer12 wrote:

That's one way to deal with the threat of lessors repossessing aircraft.

Not really, considering if an aircraft is actually in the air lessors would have job trying to repossess it, unless you know of a way to do it.

Vicenza wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

That's one way to deal with the threat of lessors repossessing aircraft.

Not really, considering if an aircraft is actually in the air lessors would have job trying to repossess it, unless you know of a way to do it.

...until one day, you have to divert. It happens more often than you think.

It's not just the fear of repossessions. Although that is also very real.

They also lost their Sabre reservations system as a result of the sanctions. Not to mention the inability for passengers to use western credit cards to buy tickets. It's hard to run an airline if you can't sell tickets and collect the revenue.

As a result, they are also being forced commercially into domestic operations with domestic stop-gap replacements for reservations and payments.

airplanedriver6 wrote:

It's not just the fear of repossessions. Although that is also very real.

They also lost their Sabre reservations system as a result of the sanctions. Not to mention the inability for passengers to use western credit cards to buy tickets. It's hard to run an airline if you can't sell tickets and collect the revenue.

As a result, they are also being forced commercially into domestic operations with domestic stop-gap replacements for reservations and payments.

Very true. But the real reason is simpler than that: Russia forbids its airlines to operate foreign flights from March 6th (outbound), and all aircraft must be back in Mother Russia on March 8th. So it's now a matter of law, not commercial issues or repossessions.

phugoid1982 wrote:

RT is showing a live conference between Putin and female Aeroflot pilots and flight attendants. It's the usual nonsense justifications and embellishments. But I can't help but feel sad for these hardworking professionals who are losing their livelihoods thanks to sanctions.

Sanctions are not the cause, they are in intervening factor bud. Best if we keep politics out of this thread and that also means the back door.

oxonrow wrote:

phugoid1982 wrote:

RT is showing a live conference between Putin and female Aeroflot pilots and flight attendants. It's the usual nonsense justifications and embellishments. But I can't help but feel sad for these hardworking professionals who are losing their livelihoods thanks to sanctions.

Sanctions are not the cause, they are in intervening factor bud. Best if we keep politics out of this thread and that also means the back door.

Yeah, that was a gross simplification and I inadvertently stuck that in. My bad. That's why I posted a separate "sanctions" comment in the non av thread. Either way, losing the 225, civ av just recovering from covid and. Ow this. It's just sad for the aviation community

phugoid1982 wrote:

oxonrow wrote:

phugoid1982 wrote:

RT is showing a live conference between Putin and female Aeroflot pilots and flight attendants. It's the usual nonsense justifications and embellishments. But I can't help but feel sad for these hardworking professionals who are losing their livelihoods thanks to sanctions.

Sanctions are not the cause, they are in intervening factor bud. Best if we keep politics out of this thread and that also means the back door.

Yeah, that was a gross simplification and I inadvertently stuck that in. My bad. That's why I posted a separate "sanctions" comment in the non av thread. Either way, losing the 225, civ av just recovering from covid and. Ow this. It's just sad for the aviation community

No worries, it is true that this an unspeakable tragedy for all Russian people, including all those who started to build careers in the fast paced world of international aviation -- such a remarkable transformation of the airline scene in Russia over the past two decades, it's sad to see it come to a halt.

Is there any chance they're having Jet A supply issues? I read something the other day that hinted at that. I realize they have plenty of oil, but that doesn't necessarily translate to refinery capacity. If they source Jet A from abroad and that supply has been cut off, that could create some obvious national security concerns.

I have no evidence for this, just speculative/wondering out loud if maybe there's more to this than avoiding repossessions.

Flights to Belarus, well at least Russians can still vacation in 'Western Russia'...

atcsundevil wrote:

Is there any chance they're having Jet A supply issues? I read something the other day that hinted at that. I realize they have plenty of oil, but that doesn't necessarily translate to refinery capacity. If they source Jet A from abroad and that supply has been cut off, that could create some obvious national security concerns.

I have no evidence for this, just speculative/wondering out loud if maybe there's more to this than avoiding repossessions.

Very possible. And even if there's no shortage as such, maybe they are funneling existing reserves to the military? I mean, the Russian Air Force has been surprisingly quiet in the war so far, for some strange reason. Could it be possible that their reserves of fuel were mostly just available on paper, but had in effect been sold through the back door by unscrupulous generals through the years?

MalevTU134 wrote:

Very possible. And even if there's no shortage as such, maybe they are funneling existing reserves to the military? I mean, the Russian Air Force has been surprisingly quiet in the war so far, for some strange reason. Could it be possible that their reserves of fuel were mostly just available on paper, but had in effect been sold through the back door by unscrupulous generals through the years?

Or that. They could be stockpiling for military use and/or domestic services. The country's transportation infrastructure is unusually reliant on maintaining air links compared to other nations, so if the supply of Jet A isn't reliable, they'd need to make cuts accordingly.

atcsundevil wrote:

Is there any chance they're having Jet A supply issues? I read something the other day that hinted at that. I realize they have plenty of oil, but that doesn't necessarily translate to refinery capacity. If they source Jet A from abroad and that supply has been cut off, that could create some obvious national security concerns.

Russia is a net exporter of jet fuel, even before Covid cut passenger air travel demand. That doesn't mean they always have it where they need it...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russ ... SKCN26C1HN

MIflyer12 wrote:

atcsundevil wrote:

Is there any chance they're having Jet A supply issues? I read something the other day that hinted at that. I realize they have plenty of oil, but that doesn't necessarily translate to refinery capacity. If they source Jet A from abroad and that supply has been cut off, that could create some obvious national security concerns.

Russia is a net exporter of jet fuel, even before Covid cut passenger air travel demand. That doesn't mean they always have it where they need it...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russ ... SKCN26C1HN

Interesting. Maybe that rules out my theory. I think there has to be more to it than just avoiding repossessions though. There are plenty of friendly countries that wouldn't enforce the repossessions, so there has to be more to the story.

MalevTU134 wrote:

rutankrd wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

I'm surprised they aren't interested in/willing to/able to operate flights into friendly countries like Iran or China. Both can be done without overflying "unfriendly" airspace (in case of diversion). Is Belarus really the only country they trust will not play along with lessors' legal repossession requests? Or is it not worth flying to those countries anymore now that the Moscow hub is gone? Or is China something that could come back once they ease the zero-Covid policy there? I would have thought that Russia-China flights were mostly O/D traffic, not international connections.

Right now one of the few international routes still operating is actually to/from Tel Aviv !

Yes, but Israel has not closed its airspace to Russian aircraft, mainly due to domestic and regional political concerns. Not because they side with Russia in the conflict. And the order to stop flights is valid from tomorrow, March 6th. TLV flights will stop operating, too.

Debatable Russian Oligarchs hold significant influence with Likud’s pockets mate

atcsundevil wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

atcsundevil wrote:

Is there any chance they're having Jet A supply issues? I read something the other day that hinted at that. I realize they have plenty of oil, but that doesn't necessarily translate to refinery capacity. If they source Jet A from abroad and that supply has been cut off, that could create some obvious national security concerns.

Russia is a net exporter of jet fuel, even before Covid cut passenger air travel demand. That doesn't mean they always have it where they need it...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russ ... SKCN26C1HN

Interesting. Maybe that rules out my theory. I think there has to be more to it than just avoiding repossessions though. There are plenty of friendly countries that wouldn't enforce the repossessions, so there has to be more to the story.

Not that many if you consider the countries you have to overfly to get there, or risk diverting to. Belarus, Iran and China are probably the only ones. Ok...North Korea maybe, but no Russian airlines have flown there for decades

MalevTU134 wrote:

I'm surprised they aren't interested in/willing to/able to operate flights into friendly countries like Iran or China. Both can be done without overflying "unfriendly" airspace (in case of diversion). Is Belarus really the only country they trust will not play along with lessors' legal repossession requests? Or is it not worth flying to those countries anymore now that the Moscow hub is gone? Or is China something that could come back once they ease the zero-Covid policy there? I would have thought that Russia-China flights were mostly O/D traffic, not international connections.

A lot of finance in china these lease deals might have multiple owners or the way the deal structured the Chinese like money above Putin.

MalevTU134 wrote:

Vicenza wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

That's one way to deal with the threat of lessors repossessing aircraft.

Not really, considering if an aircraft is actually in the air lessors would have job trying to repossess it, unless you know of a way to do it.

...until one day, you have to divert. It happens more often than you think.

A valid question - even if they avoid the repossession, how are they planning to keep those aircraft in the sky, with them unable to purchase engines, parts and/or work with international partners regarding support, or replacement items? Apart from a diversion, regular maintenance is also an issue - and not one that being a 'domestic' airline can fix. I expect that this will push Russia towards more local production however I don't know that they are capable of ramping up production and/or those aircraft being able to handle all of their needs. Even reverse engineering takes time, and organically allowing those capabilities (not perhaps the style of the current Russian regime) would take far too long to achieve. How much attention will the current regime have to devote to this effort?

Harsher yet, though would be where to replace from; on the domestic production front - the MC-21 had quite alot of international corporation, with the gearbox, avionics, flight control system coming from U.S. partners (which would now be barred). Even with a total substitution of Russian produced parts/systems, it would require that those systems/manufacturers/developers to work towards ramping up (and at MAKS, PD had a 'great' showing, but this was a state sponsored event), and get those up and running - in order to even recapture the original timeline of the project (and/or meeting any internal needs on orders). What little export orders, must now all be re-thought as those not willing to follow Russia (or completely reliant on Moscow) would potentially have to discuss sanctions if/when they receive and/or interact with Russia during rather regular interactions such as maintenance and support - and that's past the Russian problem in the past, of supply/support issues, for these frames if/when they arrive (and, by this point, on whose EIS schedule?). How this then affects the CR-929 (which would have required significant Chinese involvement), is another issue - as these were the planned future of Russian fleets.

Are there any fully-Russian built/supported airlines produced today, that they can ramp-up quick production on?

Rajahdhani wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Vicenza wrote:

Not really, considering if an aircraft is actually in the air lessors would have job trying to repossess it, unless you know of a way to do it.

...until one day, you have to divert. It happens more often than you think.

A valid question - even if they avoid the repossession, how are they planning to keep those aircraft in the sky, with them unable to purchase engines, parts and/or work with international partners regarding support, or replacement items? Apart from a diversion, regular maintenance is also an issue - and not one that being a 'domestic' airline can fix. I expect that this will push Russia towards more local production however I don't know that they are capable of ramping up production and/or those aircraft being able to handle all of their needs. Even reverse engineering takes time, and organically allowing those capabilities (not perhaps the style of the current Russian regime) would take far too long to achieve. How much attention will the current regime have to devote to this effort?

Harsher yet, though would be where to replace from; on the domestic production front - the MC-21 had quite alot of international corporation, with the gearbox, avionics, flight control system coming from U.S. partners (which would now be barred). Even with a total substitution of Russian produced parts/systems, it would require that those systems/manufacturers/developers to work towards ramping up (and at MAKS, PD had a 'great' showing, but this was a state sponsored event), and get those up and running - in order to even recapture the original timeline of the project (and/or meeting any internal needs on orders). What little export orders, must now all be re-thought as those not willing to follow Russia (or completely reliant on Moscow) would potentially have to discuss sanctions if/when they receive and/or interact with Russia during rather regular interactions such as maintenance and support - and that's past the Russian problem in the past, of supply/support issues, for these frames if/when they arrive (and, by this point, on whose EIS schedule?). How this then affects the CR-929 (which would have required significant Chinese involvement), is another issue - as these were the planned future of Russian fleets.

Are there any fully-Russian built/supported airlines produced today, that they can ramp-up quick production on?

Good points. Maybe belong more in another thread, such as this one:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1470795

It's been widely discussed there.

In a unusual meeting Putin has tea at the Aeroflot Training Center with trainee FA's from Aeroflot, Rossiya Ural Airlines, S7 Airlines.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... n-WAR.html

MalevTU134 wrote:

davidjohnson6 wrote:

I am surprised Russia doesn't trust countries like Armenia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan not to do as they are told by Moscow. Usually these countries listen carefully to instructions from Putin...

Well, S7 got one of their A320s repossessed in Yerevan the other day, so that may be understandable. That got S7 to drop all their international flights.
But Iran and China play in a different league, I would have thought.

Not when Chinese owned companies own some of these planes, even if they are through subsidiaries domiciled in another country. When it comes to business, the Chinese can be calculative, they will make sure that they do not lose out financially.

jeffrey0032j wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

davidjohnson6 wrote:

I am surprised Russia doesn't trust countries like Armenia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan not to do as they are told by Moscow. Usually these countries listen carefully to instructions from Putin...

Well, S7 got one of their A320s repossessed in Yerevan the other day, so that may be understandable. That got S7 to drop all their international flights.
But Iran and China play in a different league, I would have thought.

Not when Chinese owned companies own some of these planes, even if they are through subsidiaries domiciled in another country. When it comes to business, the Chinese can be calculative, they will make sure that they do not lose out financially.

Very true.

There’s no international insurance for the planes, which also prevents flights to other countries.

So for now is only Aeroflot ceasing international flights, or are all other Russian carriers following suit ?

asuflyer wrote:

In a unusual meeting Putin has tea at the Aeroflot Training Center with trainee FA's from Aeroflot, Rossiya Ural Airlines, S7 Airlines.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... n-WAR.html

That's proof that Putin didn't go all nuts. He sits 8 metres from his Minister of Defense, but doesn't mind sitting next to young pretty trainee FAs. Not all his decisions are irrational...

alberchico wrote:

So for now is only Aeroflot ceasing international flights, or are all other Russian carriers following suit ?

By decree, all Russian airlines are obliged to. It's not by their choice, even if they wouldn't have many other options anyway in the short term.

sxf24 wrote:

There’s no international insurance for the planes, which also prevents flights to other countries.

That doesn't stop them from flying to Belarus, it seems...

MalevTU134 wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

There’s no international insurance for the planes, which also prevents flights to other countries.

That doesn't stop them from flying to Belarus, it seems...

Allowing operations without international insurance is a CAA decision. I would expect Belarus would accept support of Russian government for insurance (in whatever form that takes) in lieu of an international policy.

sxf24 wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

There’s no international insurance for the planes, which also prevents flights to other countries.

That doesn't stop them from flying to Belarus, it seems...

Allowing operations without international insurance is a CAA decision. I would expect Belarus would accept support of Russian government for insurance (in whatever form that takes) in lieu of an international policy.

Of course. But other "rogue" nations would do that, too. I mean, for example, everything is done ad-hoc in the Iranian aviation industry, so why not accept insurance underwritten by Russian insurance companies, or the Russian Government?

atcsundevil wrote:

I think there has to be more to it than just avoiding repossessions though. There are plenty of friendly countries that wouldn't enforce the repossessions, so there has to be more to the story.

I agree with you. I'm thinking something very calculated by Putin. Perhaps some major new turn in the war after March 8 that will thoroughly outrage the world even more. He wants as many Russian assets as possible to be in-country so they cannot be embargoed abroad. I hope I'm wrong.

Seat1F wrote:

atcsundevil wrote:

I think there has to be more to it than just avoiding repossessions though. There are plenty of friendly countries that wouldn't enforce the repossessions, so there has to be more to the story.

I agree with you. I'm thinking something very calculated by Putin. Perhaps some major new turn in the war after March 8 that will thoroughly outrage the world even more. He wants as many Russian assets as possible to be in-country so they cannot be embargoed abroad. I hope I'm wrong.

Considering that there's speculation that there is going to be a massive aerial bombardment on urban areas in order to force them to surrender, the Russian govt knows relations with the West will get much worse if they do down that road.

Amazing, not since the era of Stalin has Aeroflot been so limited in its international route network. This is the dawn of a new Cold War.

Folks wondering why isn’t SU flying to Iran or China, might wanna consider demand and other factors at play in the Iran-Russia aviation market. I can’t speak for China, but Iran and Russia are certainly not tourist destinations for one another. And I doubt demand is anywhere near where IR or others wouldn’t be able to handle. The main travel reasons are for diplomatic and educational reason (specifically military and energy related sectors) with random adventurous tourists here and there. No booze or free beaches in Iran should keep Russian tourists away … and certainly not a lot of love or interest to see Russia for most Iranians who, unlike the current Iranian regime, continue to view Russia with distrust due to long history of conflicts and territorial disputes between the two nations.

alberchico wrote:

This is the dawn of a new Cold War.

I hope it will be cold, but the beginning seems quite warm to me.

Homadreaming86 wrote:

Folks wondering why isn’t SU flying to Iran or China, might wanna consider demand and other factors at play in the Iran-Russia aviation market. I can’t speak for China, but Iran and Russia are certainly not tourist destinations for one another. And I doubt demand is anywhere near where IR or others wouldn’t be able to handle. The main travel reasons are for diplomatic and educational reason (specifically military and energy related sectors) with random adventurous tourists here and there. No booze or free beaches in Iran should keep Russian tourists away … and certainly not a lot of love or interest to see Russia for most Iranians who, unlike the current Iranian regime, continue to view Russia with distrust due to long history of conflicts and territorial disputes between the two nations.

I'm that "folks".
Thanks for your very informative reply!

Am surprised SkyTeam has not kicked them out (yet). Any chance this will happen?

Hey now maybe they’ll start hourly service to Pyongyang

MalevTU134 wrote:

asuflyer wrote:

In a unusual meeting Putin has tea at the Aeroflot Training Center with trainee FA's from Aeroflot, Rossiya Ural Airlines, S7 Airlines.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... n-WAR.html

That's proof that Putin didn't go all nuts. He sits 8 metres from his Minister of Defense, but doesn't mind sitting next to young pretty trainee FAs. Not all his decisions are irrational...

It does however reinforce the theory that he's terrified of a palace coup, and isn't acting rationally.

He's totally fine meeting with trainee flight attendants with probably 8-10 bodyguards in the room. But when he's sitting with people that might have the connections and wherewithal to depose him, he wants to be sixty feet away and talking into a microphone.

This is sounding increasingly North Korea hermit kingdom-like.

MalevTU134 wrote:

But Iran and China play in a different league, I would have thought.

I’m not surprised by Iran at all. Iran is currently in negotiations with the U.S. to remove its crippling sanctions. Apparently the negotiations are going well and there is no way Iran wants to risk its discussions with the U.S. to support Russia in this war.

The sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy so they are working hard to get those sanctions lifted.