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wjcandee
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:16 pm

blockski wrote:
There's no incentive for the investigators to leak anything. I can't speak for the Chinese authorities, but that's not how the NTSB operates - not to mention the treaty rules governing an investigation like this.


This all goes back to the AA accident in ORD. The NTSB guy stood up in a press conference like a day later and announced that they strongly-suspected blah-blah as the cause, and it was completely-wrong. Very-embarrassing. Now they take their time, and debate lots of things internally, before rendering a report that almost-always stands up to extreme scrutiny.
 
flybucky
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 13, 2022 7:19 pm

wjcandee wrote:
This all goes back to the AA accident in ORD. The NTSB guy stood up in a press conference like a day later and announced that they strongly-suspected blah-blah as the cause, and it was completely-wrong. Very-embarrassing. Now they take their time, and debate lots of things internally, before rendering a report that almost-always stands up to extreme scrutiny.

Which one was that? AA 191, the DC-10 crash at O'Hare in 1979?
 
wjcandee
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 13, 2022 7:24 pm

flybucky wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
This all goes back to the AA accident in ORD. The NTSB guy stood up in a press conference like a day later and announced that they strongly-suspected blah-blah as the cause, and it was completely-wrong. Very-embarrassing. Now they take their time, and debate lots of things internally, before rendering a report that almost-always stands up to extreme scrutiny.

Which one was that? AA 191, the DC-10 crash at O'Hare in 1979?


Si.
 
djm18
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:51 pm

Questions:

Any word on the status of the grounding of the 737-800 by China Eastern?

If there were some serious mechanical issue that could affect the aircraft type, would they then accelerate the timing of a preliminary report?
 
tkyang99
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 13, 2022 11:20 pm

djm18 wrote:
Questions:

Any word on the status of the grounding of the 737-800 by China Eastern?

If there were some serious mechanical issue that could affect the aircraft type, would they then accelerate the timing of a preliminary report?


I believe China Eastern still has them grounded. They don't really care anyway, with the lockdown in Shanghai demand is way down. A lot of their Airbus planes are also currently grounded due to low demand.
 
Sydscott
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:59 am

Question - with the data recorders being sent to the NTSB, will the results of the NTSB analysis go back to the Chinese Authorities for incorporation in their reports or will the NTSB release the findings / data independently of that process?
 
JohanTally
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Thu Apr 14, 2022 1:55 am

Sydscott wrote:
Question - with the data recorders being sent to the NTSB, will the results of the NTSB analysis go back to the Chinese Authorities for incorporation in their reports or will the NTSB release the findings / data independently of that process?

The investigating body in China is in charge of the investigation and once the NTSB has recovered as much data possible the raw data would be sent back to China. I wouldn't be surprised if the NTSB backs up the data for their own review but right now all findings are to be reported by the Chinese authorities.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Thu Apr 14, 2022 4:06 am

Agreed, NTSB is not the investigating agency of record, they are only a party to the investigation, and cannot release any information except to CAAC. So we won't know anything until CAAC releases their initial report. They have committed to doing that within 30 days of the accident. They may or may not chose to include flight or voice data. So we just have to wait and see what they say at that time. The report may be inconclusive pending further investigation.
 
tkyang99
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:27 pm

According to this video, info from the black boxes have already been downloaded and returned to Beijing on 4/8. That was almost a week ago...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41EOOfxpL2Q
 
Opus99
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Fri Apr 15, 2022 2:19 pm

I think we should be very cautious not to just assume that China will hide the outcome of this investigation. I think we need to give investigators time to complete their work and issue their initial report
 
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N14AZ
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:05 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I think we should be very cautious not to just assume that China will hide the outcome of this investigation. I think we need to give investigators time to complete their work and issue their initial report

You may be right. In case of the 1990 Guangzhou Baiyun airport collisions they had no problem to admit what had happened:

Image
Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Gu ... collisions

But that’s long time ago… Right now I am confident they will explain what happened in a transparent way. Especially since NTSB was involved and it’s hard to believe they didn’t keep a copy of the recordings.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:23 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I think we should be very cautious not to just assume that China will hide the outcome of this investigation. I think we need to give investigators time to complete their work and issue their initial report

:checkmark:

In a deleted post, I encouraged anyone here to find an example of an investigation that has been completed this quickly. Even preliminary reports take as long as it's been.

Leaks sometimes happen, but that's not a very useful data point to go off of. Also, there are times when limited, key information is put out very quickly because it's extremely urgent—something happened with a high probability of happening again soon... but it is not even a preliminary report, just a dire warning.

If you look at the timeline of other accidents, you'll see that this investigation is not YET looking suspicious. Obviously that could change, but as of now, people need to chill out and be patient
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Fri Apr 15, 2022 5:27 pm

Yes, it's too early to draw any conclusions about either the accident or the investigation. A lot of attention is focused on this and the NTSB will dissent if they think that data are withheld or that the eventual conclusions are not accurate. So have to let the investigation play out.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Sun Apr 17, 2022 6:35 am

MU has restarted B738 ops, B-207L looks to have been the first.
http://reut.rs/3uN4zTU
 
tkyang99
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:02 am

ikolkyo wrote:
MU has restarted B738 ops, B-207L looks to have been the first.
http://reut.rs/3uN4zTU


Interesting. So can we infer that they've already ruled out any sort of mechanical defect as the cause?
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:57 am

Seems likely. No safety bulletins from Boeing either.
 
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BoatStuck
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Sun Apr 17, 2022 9:24 am

tkyang99 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
MU has restarted B738 ops, B-207L looks to have been the first.
http://reut.rs/3uN4zTU


Interesting. So can we infer that they've already ruled out any sort of mechanical defect as the cause?


That's certainly fuel for the root cause debate.
 
planecane
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:05 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
Seems likely. No safety bulletins from Boeing either.


Or from the Chinese authorities.
 
CMA727
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Mon Apr 18, 2022 5:37 am

Human factor...
 
planecane
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:07 am

I don't remember if mentioned but it could have been an error made due to spacial disorientation or something. Human factor doesn't automatically mean pilot murder/suicide.
 
Opus99
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Mon Apr 18, 2022 12:29 pm

https://twitter.com/satcom_guru/status/ ... 6FDiepS1fw

This is another viewpoint from a past Boeing engineer.
 
flybucky
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Mon Apr 18, 2022 4:10 pm

This Wed, Apr 20, is 30 days after the crash (Mon, Mar 21), so that should be the deadline for filing the preliminary report with ICAO.
 
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enzo011
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Mon Apr 18, 2022 6:20 pm

flybucky wrote:
This Wed, Apr 20, is 30 days after the crash (Mon, Mar 21), so that should be the deadline for filing the preliminary report with ICAO.



About 30 days. The Asiana crash in San Francisco was about 31 or 32 days from date of incident to interim report. Same with AF447, just over the 30 days, although being one second over 30 days will have posters frothing at the mouth shouting cover-up.
 
CMA727
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Mon Apr 18, 2022 6:50 pm

planecane wrote:
I don't remember if mentioned but it could have been an error made due to spacial disorientation or something. Human factor doesn't automatically mean pilot murder/suicide.


Pilot fight in the cockpit?. That´s why no ATC communications, as far I understand is the case.
 
Reldiber
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Tue Apr 19, 2022 5:59 am

enzo011 wrote:
flybucky wrote:
This Wed, Apr 20, is 30 days after the crash (Mon, Mar 21), so that should be the deadline for filing the preliminary report with ICAO.



About 30 days. The Asiana crash in San Francisco was about 31 or 32 days from date of incident to interim report. Same with AF447, just over the 30 days, although being one second over 30 days will have posters frothing at the mouth shouting cover-up.


Don’t forget the Germanwings pilot suicide flight, which was six weeks to file the preliminary report.
 
airplanecrazy
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Tue Apr 19, 2022 8:51 am

I am working to simulate the flight path for the first 40 seconds of the event using the currently available flightradar24 data. Here is a YouTube video that shows my rough idea of a possible path of the aircraft. This is the least dynamic version of event I have thus far been able to simulate (I fully expect that if/when we get the full FDR data, that the actual event will be more dynamic -- i.e. more vertical motion and sharper turns).

Notes:
- The diamonds you see represent the flightradar24 data points
- I am using a starting altitude of 30724 msl (using flightradar24 geo height at TOD with HAE correction)
- I am using the Zibo 738 simulator
- The simulation assumes the event starts right after the ADS-B data point at 06:20:43.7. The turns would need to be even more aggressive if the event starts later.
- The blue airplane you see is showing the direct path between the flightradar24 data points with altitude corrected from pressure altitude to msl.
- The timestamps from the flightradar24 data are inaccurate. That is why you see the blue airplane appear to speed up and slow down compared to my model.
- The simulated aircraft does not fly exactly through the flightradar24 data points. This is a limitation in my ability to get X-Plane to exactly reproduce flights for each simulation run (chaos theory -- butterfly effect), and my fatigue trying to get it better.

My Conclusions:

- Most of the first 15 seconds of the event were dominated by lateral maneuvers, not vertical descent.
- There were some high G (2.5g +) maneuvers in the first 40 seconds
- The pullup between 06:21:14 and 06:21:19 was extreme. It was likely a 3.5g+ maneuver.
- The descent likely exceeded 50,000 fpm. As flybucky noted, somewhere in the ADS-B reporting chain vertical velocity saturated at -30976 fpm.

There are many reasons to be skeptical of this analysis (e.g. flight reconstruction by and amateur using X-Plane), but I have decided to throw it out there for your consideration anyway, I don't intend this thread in airliners.net to be the forum to discuss the details of this simulation. Please feel free to comment and discuss this with me on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/1uSg1iggn6Y
 
tkyang99
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:10 am

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... gn=3174696

They are lowering expectations already....

My guess is we will have to wait at least year to know anything, even though they already have readings from both the CVR and FDR....
 
ltbewr
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:11 am

I wonder if the preliminary '30 day' report will be delayed due to the pandemic conditions restrictions in some places in China as well as from shipping the recorder chips to the USA and back.
 
blockski
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Tue Apr 19, 2022 2:06 pm

tkyang99 wrote:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3174696/china-eastern-flight-mu5375-early-report-deadly-crash-unlikely?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3174696

They are lowering expectations already....

My guess is we will have to wait at least year to know anything, even though they already have readings from both the CVR and FDR....


This isn't 'lowering expectations,' unless your expectations for the preliminary report were unrealistic from the start.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Tue Apr 19, 2022 4:42 pm

tkyang99 wrote:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3174696/china-eastern-flight-mu5375-early-report-deadly-crash-unlikely?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3174696

They are lowering expectations already....

My guess is we will have to wait at least year to know anything, even though they already have readings from both the CVR and FDR....


The article you linked does not support your speculation that expectations are being lowered or that we won't know anything for a year.

Some key quotes are the following:

However, the report to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) – a United Nations body – is likely to only contain basic facts garnered by investigators, according to air accident specialists, and not analyses and conclusions on why the Boeing 737-800 plunged from a cruising altitude.
....
The report would be based on verified information available at the time of writing, including speed, altitude, radar information and voice communication with air traffic control, Joe Hattley, a retired aircraft accident investigator at the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, said.

“The essential thing about a preliminary report is that it has no analysis, no findings, no conclusions, but there may be things like safety recommendations,” he explained..


If you have read preliminary reports from other crashes, you will see that Mr. Hattley's description is accurate. For example, consider the Germanwings 9525 murders. The ADS-B data included changes in the commanded altitude to below ground level. The voice recorder was found the next day in good condition. The data recorder was found about a week later. Criminal investigators had within a week found the co-pilot's computer had searches related to suicide. Yet although the criminal investigators were sharing many of these details and the case seemed very clear, the accident investigators did not release the preliminary report until 6 weeks after the crash.

When they did, exactly as suggested by Mr. Hattley, the Germanwings 9525 Preliminary Report was limited to basic facts, not analyses or conclusions.

https://bea.aero/docspa/2015/d-px150324 ... 324.en.pdf

They stated, for example, that the pilot had left the cockpit while the co-pilot remained, the altitude selection was changed to a height below ground level, and that the pilot tried to re-enter the cockpit and numerous times tried to communicate with the co-pilot, in addition to the fact that the co-pilot had previously been treated for mental health issues. They did not state the conclusion that the crash was a malicious act on the part of the co-pilot.

It was only the final report that concluded the cause of the Germanwings 9525 crash was a deliberate and planned suicide by the copilot.

Note, I am using this example solely to show the normalcy of a slow, careful release of information by accident investigators even when the cause seems so clear that criminal investigators are already publicly preparing their case, not to favor murder-suicide as the explanation for the China Eastern 5735 crash over other possible explanations.

There may be details in the preliminary report, however, that make it pretty clear what the cause was. Or it may leave open too many questions like the AF447 interim reports.
 
mostlyharmlesss
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:37 am

The CAAC released a summary of its preliminary report on its website: http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TZTG/2 ... 12895.html

The summary (again, not the preliminary report itself) gave a more detailed description of the crash site, debris found, time of last atc communication, and final radar readings, etc. Re two black boxes, only says that they are badly damaged and still going through fixing/analysing process. Unclear whether the CAAC will made the preliminary report itself public.

Google or DeepL can do a decent job in translating the summary. I will leave it to the more competent guys in this forum to do a proper translation later.
 
Tartarus
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:20 am

 
moa999
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:22 am

Basically nothing new and
"the two recorders on the plane were severely damaged due to the impact, and the data restoration and analysis work is still in progress."
 
MPadhi
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:42 am

Tartarus wrote:
http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TZTG/202204/t20220420_212895.html#

CAAC Interim Statement.


Google Translate link: https://www-caac-gov-cn.translate.goog/ ... _pto=wapp#

The link may take a while to translate, but it should do so automatically.

Key quote from the translated link:
"The trailing edge of the right wingtip winglet was found approximately 12 kilometers from the main impact point."
 
ltbewr
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:52 am

We shouldn't be surprised at this limited report. The severe damage to the recorders as noted by others here and in news reports. The delays in retrieving the recorders. Delays from pandemic restrictions in a number of places in China. There seems to be less obvious reasons for the cause that needs to be examined. You don't want to blame the pilot then realize later it was a mechanical, electrical or electronic problem. It is better to say little than poison the final report.
 
airplanecrazy
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:42 pm

Tartarus wrote:
http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TZTG/202204/t20220420_212895.html#

CAAC Interim Statement.


"At 14:21:40, the last recorded aircraft information by the radar was: standard pressure altitude of 3380 meters, ground speed of 1010 km/h, and heading of 117 degrees. Subsequently, the radar signal disappeared."

I will note flighradar24's last ADS-B data was 14:22:35, almost a minute later.. Does this mean that flightradar's coverage was actually better, or is it possible CAAC collected additional ADS-B data after they lost primary radar contact?
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 3:13 pm

MPadhi wrote:
Tartarus wrote:
http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TZTG/202204/t20220420_212895.html#

CAAC Interim Statement.


Google Translate link: https://www-caac-gov-cn.translate.goog/ ... _pto=wapp#

The link may take a while to translate, but it should do so automatically.

Key quote from the translated link:
"The trailing edge of the right wingtip winglet was found approximately 12 kilometers from the main impact point."


I'm not engineer but can that be potential cause of such drastic change of flight characteristics?
737 can fly with 1 winglet missing and 12km from impact site doesn't seem like that much considering the speed the plane was traveling at.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 3:23 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
MPadhi wrote:
Key quote from the translated link:
"The trailing edge of the right wingtip winglet was found approximately 12 kilometers from the main impact point."


I'm not engineer but can that be potential cause of such drastic change of flight characteristics?
737 can fly with 1 winglet missing and 12km from impact site doesn't seem like that much considering the speed the plane was traveling at.


I would note two things:

1) if part of the wing is found away from the main crash site that doesn't mean everything else remained perfectly attached and in working order - it could indicate there was more serious damage at that point

2) without checking the flightpath I'd say it's possible this piece detached when there was the attempt to pull-up from the initial descent
 
flybucky
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:06 pm

MPadhi wrote:
Key quote from the translated link:
"The trailing edge of the right wingtip winglet was found approximately 12 kilometers from the main impact point."

That wasn't new info. The CAAC had already announced in their press conference on Mar 24 that a large piece of debris was found in Yatang Village (12 km from the crash site). Then on Mar 26, the CAAC announced that the debris was identified as the trailing edge of a winglet. Source.

The only part that might be new is the "right". I had assumed it was the left winglet, since the crash site photos showed most of the right winglet intact (photo). I guess the debris was the very tip of the right winglet?
 
flybucky
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:16 pm

Tartarus wrote:
CAAC Interim Statement.
"At 14:21:40, the last recorded aircraft information by the radar was: standard pressure altitude of 3380 meters, ground speed of 1010 km/h, and heading of 117 degrees. Subsequently, the radar signal disappeared."

airplanecrazy wrote:
I will note flighradar24's last ADS-B data was 14:22:35, almost a minute later.. Does this mean that flightradar's coverage was actually better, or is it possible CAAC collected additional ADS-B data after they lost primary radar contact?

My guess is the CAAC was only referring to primary radar in their statement.
 
tkyang99
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:42 pm

I hate to say that I was right, but looks like I was right. This report is a complete nothing.

What does "still analyzing mean" anyway? Reminds me of the scene in Alien where Ripley asks Ash what he is doing, and Ash says "we're still collating" (ie doing absolutely nothing).

Why do you need to "analyze" the CVR? Either you were able to retrieve the recording and heard it, or you didn't. They're not trying to decipher or decode some encrypted secret code.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:45 pm

The report states that all the major components of the aircraft were found at the crash site, except for one small segment of wing, including winglet. So that implies there likely was not a mid-air breakup as some had thought. Also some reports of tail being missing are not supported. Also no report of engines not running, which they should be able to ascertain. So that rules out a few of the possibilities.
 
flybucky
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:45 pm

tkyang99 wrote:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3174696/china-eastern-flight-mu5375-early-report-deadly-crash-unlikely?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3174696

They are lowering expectations already.... My guess is we will have to wait at least year to know anything, even though they already have readings from both the CVR and FDR....

blockski wrote:
This isn't 'lowering expectations,' unless your expectations for the preliminary report were unrealistic from the start.

I think @tkyang99 was right in that the SCMP article did hint that there wouldn't be much new info. The key sentence to me was "The CAAC has said the preliminary report would not be made public." Previously, I did not know whether they were going to release it publicly or not.

Other 30 day preliminary reports have been amazingly detailed and informative, such as Ethiopian 302 and Lion Air 610 [1]. They contained FDR graphs and lots of new factual information that shed a lot of light on the incident, even without any analysis of causes.

On the other hand, the CAAC stated that the MU5735 preliminary report mainly had flight history, maintenance, personnel, wreckage, but did not have any flight data analysis. And also, the preliminary report itself was not made public. So that was disappointing compared to other 30-day preliminary reports that we've seen.

-----

[1] Lion Air 610 30-day preliminary report: http://avherald.com/files/lionair_b38m_ ... t_data.pdf
 
flybucky
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:57 pm

The only significant thing that I got out of the announcement of the preliminary report (using google translate) was:

at 14:20:55 Guangzhou area control radar showed a "deviation" Command altitude" warning, the aircraft left the cruise altitude, the controller called the crew immediately, but received no reply.

Previously, I was under the assumption that the plane was intending to begin its descent for landing, since the location was similar to when previous flights had begun their descents. However, this statement seems to indicate that they were not supposed to begin descent yet.
 
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litz
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:11 pm

tkyang99 wrote:
Why do you need to "analyze" the CVR? Either you were able to retrieve the recording and heard it, or you didn't. They're not trying to decipher or decode some encrypted secret code.


It was badly damaged. Before they can even attempt to retrieve, they have to repair. Very intricate delicate repair. With exactly ONE shot to get it right.

And you have to retrieve before you can analyze.

Repair -> Retrieve -> Analyze.

We're at step one, and will remain there until the technicians are satisfied they can apply power and not destroy the data.

The NTSB and the manufacturer are the best in the world at this stuff. It will take however much time it takes, but they'll get their data if it's within the realm of possibility.
 
tkyang99
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Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2022 6:40 pm

Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:30 pm

litz wrote:
tkyang99 wrote:
Why do you need to "analyze" the CVR? Either you were able to retrieve the recording and heard it, or you didn't. They're not trying to decipher or decode some encrypted secret code.


It was badly damaged. Before they can even attempt to retrieve, they have to repair. Very intricate delicate repair. With exactly ONE shot to get it right.

And you have to retrieve before you can analyze.

Repair -> Retrieve -> Analyze.

We're at step one, and will remain there until the technicians are satisfied they can apply power and not destroy the data.

The NTSB and the manufacturer are the best in the world at this stuff. It will take however much time it takes, but they'll get their data if it's within the realm of possibility.


You are also making assumptions. The reports do not say anything specific about whether they are still repairing, or if they were able to retrieve some data or none, or what step in the repair/retrieval/analysis process they are in. It also doesn't say if the recorders are still in the US or already sent back to China (which I assume they are). They left it incredibly vague which I feel was intentional. ie just "we're still collating"
 
32andBelow
Posts: 6262
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:52 pm

I don’t believe for a second that they haven’t heard the CVR.
 
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zeke
Posts: 17271
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:55 pm

flybucky wrote:
tkyang99 wrote:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3174696/china-eastern-flight-mu5375-early-report-deadly-crash-unlikely?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3174696

They are lowering expectations already.... My guess is we will have to wait at least year to know anything, even though they already have readings from both the CVR and FDR....

blockski wrote:
This isn't 'lowering expectations,' unless your expectations for the preliminary report were unrealistic from the start.

I think @tkyang99 was right in that the SCMP article did hint that there wouldn't be much new info. The key sentence to me was "The CAAC has said the preliminary report would not be made public." Previously, I did not know whether they were going to release it publicly or not.

Other 30 day preliminary reports have been amazingly detailed and informative, such as Ethiopian 302 and Lion Air 610 [1]. They contained FDR graphs and lots of new factual information that shed a lot of light on the incident, even without any analysis of causes.

On the other hand, the CAAC stated that the MU5735 preliminary report mainly had flight history, maintenance, personnel, wreckage, but did not have any flight data analysis. And also, the preliminary report itself was not made public. So that was disappointing compared to other 30-day preliminary reports that we've seen.

-----

[1] Lion Air 610 30-day preliminary report: http://avherald.com/files/lionair_b38m_ ... t_data.pdf


The preliminary reports do not need to be made pubic, they are lodged with ICAO. The report only needs to contain the initial factual information they have made in the release above, that is more than satisfactory.
 
bhill
Posts: 1904
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2001 8:28 am

Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 7:49 pm

From the Seattle Times:

"This month, Wu Shijie, a safety official from Civil Aviation Administration of China, cautioned against a plethora of theories about the crash that have spread online within China. Some of these theories have suggested pilot suicide as a cause of the crash. Chinese aviation authorities have stepped up checks on the health and mental well-being of commercial aircraft pilots in recent days."

Notice the last sentence...
 
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PixelPilot
Posts: 967
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed Apr 20, 2022 8:05 pm

bhill wrote:
From the Seattle Times:

"This month, Wu Shijie, a safety official from Civil Aviation Administration of China, cautioned against a plethora of theories about the crash that have spread online within China. Some of these theories have suggested pilot suicide as a cause of the crash. Chinese aviation authorities have stepped up checks on the health and mental well-being of commercial aircraft pilots in recent days."

Notice the last sentence...


Might be "just in case" or they are scared more accidents will happen.
Speculation of course but I'll say with full belief that good prevention usually can find a lot of problems before they appear.

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