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ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 2:40 am

Nomadd wrote:
There's a difference between a depressed person who ends his life and a mass murderer.


Not really. People taking their own life in this way and those suffering from illnesses like depression are thinking and acting irrationally.

If this is true it's yet another piece of evidence we, as humans in general, need to change our approach to mental health issues in areas we like to pretend can have no weaknesses. All workers should feel like they can get treatment to manage long term illnesses without putting their livelihood or sense of self at needless risk. It will increase risk in some areas yes, but it will lower the overall risk. Only accepting perfection is stupid and actively dangerous. We allow pilots to wear glasses or to resume their job after breaking bones. We design and allow failure in so many mechanical systems in planes to get rid of as many single points of failure as is feasible. Why can't we do the same for mental health?
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 2:42 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

A U.S. person =\= “the U.S.” Is there any evidence of a government leak?


All the articles are quoting anonymous "US officials". So who else would it be if not the government?


A government official without authorization doesn’t speak for the government. It’s no different from the fact that (for instance) a UA employee criticizing AA on a.net doesn’t mean that UA as a company is critical of AA.


Yes, but a government official who has access to data with which the government was entrusted under condition of confidentiality, is a far more serious thing. The Chinese will not look at this and say oh, it was just a few rogue employees. It will be viewed as official action, with the US government being responsible, whether sanctioned or not.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 3:05 am

Avatar2go wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:

All the articles are quoting anonymous "US officials". So who else would it be if not the government?


A government official without authorization doesn’t speak for the government. It’s no different from the fact that (for instance) a UA employee criticizing AA on a.net doesn’t mean that UA as a company is critical of AA.


Yes, but a government official who has access to data with which the government was entrusted under condition of confidentiality, is a far more serious thing. The Chinese will not look at this and say oh, it was just a few rogue employees. It will be viewed as official action, with the US government being responsible, whether sanctioned or not.


I can't really help with what the Chinese will think.

Is it possible that they knew about and were okay with the leak? Do they save face on something like this if it comes from U.S. sources and not from them? I'm not saying that's what happened but I'm not sure we have anything with which we could discount the possibility.
 
travaz
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 3:12 am

I find it interesting that the SCMP ran the story so quickly. I agree that maybe the Chinese want this floated in the press to see what the reaction is. Just my 2 Cents
 
32andBelow
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 3:23 am

Avatar2go wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:

All the articles are quoting anonymous "US officials". So who else would it be if not the government?


A government official without authorization doesn’t speak for the government. It’s no different from the fact that (for instance) a UA employee criticizing AA on a.net doesn’t mean that UA as a company is critical of AA.


Yes, but a government official who has access to data with which the government was entrusted under condition of confidentiality, is a far more serious thing. The Chinese will not look at this and say oh, it was just a few rogue employees. It will be viewed as official action, with the US government being responsible, whether sanctioned or not.

Maybe they wanted it done this way so now they don’t have to say anything
 
iamlucky13
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 3:28 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
There's a difference between a depressed person who ends his life and a mass murderer.


Not really. People taking their own life in this way and those suffering from illnesses like depression are thinking and acting irrationally.

If this is true it's yet another piece of evidence we, as humans in general, need to change our approach to mental health issues in areas we like to pretend can have no weaknesses. All workers should feel like they can get treatment to manage long term illnesses without putting their livelihood or sense of self at needless risk. It will increase risk in some areas yes, but it will lower the overall risk. Only accepting perfection is stupid and actively dangerous. We allow pilots to wear glasses or to resume their job after breaking bones. We design and allow failure in so many mechanical systems in planes to get rid of as many single points of failure as is feasible. Why can't we do the same for mental health?


We probably shouldn't go too far down the line of discussion in the first paragraph, but I have to concur with the prior poster at least to the extent of the basic statement quoted. Self-harm and harming others are fundamentally very different manifestations of irrationality due to the involvement of the others in the latter.

I say this also due to the rate of occurrence. Based on recent data, the ratio of suicides (CDC Link) to murder-suicides (Violence Policy Center Link) in the US are about 80:1. The majority of the murder-suicide perpetrators also harm someone they know (65% of the time an intimate partner. Children are also somewhat common targets), not complete strangers.

The second paragraph is, of course, more directly relevant, and I don't have any major disagreement with it. Actually, I would say it is all the more reason to emphasize the difference - one group needs treatment, the other group needs both treatment and separation from the opportunity to actualize an idea.
 
stinson108
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 3:39 am

Time to develop a full proof system where the cockpit door cant be locked when there is only one pilot on deck.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 3:44 am

travaz wrote:
I find it interesting that the SCMP ran the story so quickly. I agree that maybe the Chinese want this floated in the press to see what the reaction is. Just my 2 Cents


The SCMP is a Hong-Kong outlet owned by Alibaba. They have more freedom than much of the Chinese press. The comments have numerous anti-China postings, but those are likely filtered in China.

It is possible that China is allowing the US to leak the story. I'd be a lot more comfortable with that than having the NTSB leaking confidential information. Their mission requires confidentiality as established by law and cooperative investigative agreements. I guess we'll see when CAAC responds.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 4:16 am

stinson108 wrote:
Time to develop a full proof system where the cockpit door cant be locked when there is only one pilot on deck.


The prevailing thought is that the single pilot in the cockpit must be able to lock the door - and he also must be able to override the lock when the correct code is entered. Likewise, a simple system with two keys (each of the pilots carries one) is not a good idea.

Why?

A terrorist points a gun to the pilot, and forces him to enter the code. To try to save his own life, he'll enter the correct code, even if it would doom all passengers (in a 9/11 scenario, for example). The pilot remaining in the cockpit must be able to sacrifice any crewmember's life if he thinks he can save the whole plane.

I know it's sordid, but it's the exact problem that doomed the Germanwings plane. A terrorist-proof door is always a pilot-proof door.
Last edited by flyingturtle on Wed May 18, 2022 4:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 4:18 am

Avatar2go wrote:
travaz wrote:
I find it interesting that the SCMP ran the story so quickly. I agree that maybe the Chinese want this floated in the press to see what the reaction is. Just my 2 Cents


The SCMP is a Hong-Kong outlet owned by Alibaba. They have more freedom than much of the Chinese press. The comments have numerous anti-China postings, but those are likely filtered in China.

It is possible that China is allowing the US to leak the story. I'd be a lot more comfortable with that than having the NTSB leaking confidential information. Their mission requires confidentiality as established by law and cooperative investigative agreements. I guess we'll see when CAAC responds.


This is highly likely considering the regular level of calculation typical of their MoFA.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 5:03 am

lightsaber wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
ABC News is also reporting it appears to be a pilot suicide.



https://www.yahoo.com/gma/chinese-plane ... 55700.html

That was a hard link to read (I muted the video by choice). I'm sad to hear this. RIP to the passengers. That is not an easy conclusion to come to.

Lightsaber



I agree, The Key quote from ABC News: .The officials who spoke to ABC News point to the plane's flaps not being engaged and landing gear not put down. The near-vertical descent of the plane, they believe, would've required intentional force. Investigators also looked into one of the pilots' personal lives and background and believe he may have been struggling through certain issues right before the crash, ABC News has learned.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/chinese-plane ... 55700.html[/quote]


If true, it is a very sad situation. RIP indeed.
 
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zeke
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 5:21 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
I agree, The Key quote from ABC News: .The officials who spoke to ABC News point to the plane's flaps not being engaged and landing gear not put down. The near-vertical descent of the plane, they believe, would've required intentional force. Investigators also looked into one of the pilots' personal lives and background and believe he may have been struggling through certain issues right before the crash, ABC News has learned..


Gear and flap position have no relevance to attitude, and you can place an aircraft into a near vertical dive vertical dive very quickly through inattention and mishandling.

Loss of control in flight is still the largest cause of fatalities, and it can happen rather quickly without the crew being aware of what is happening.

Eg.

“ The pilot of a single-crew certified jet is climbing to FL410 on the An airplane in flight unintentionally exceeding the parameters normally autopilot with the throttles at max continuous thrust. During the climb, he notices that his airspeed is somewhat lower than expected. He reduces the vertical speed, thinking that doing so will allow the aircraft to accelerate. This action, however, is not enough and the aircraft continues to slow. Unbeknownst to the pilot, there is a malfunction in the angle of attack indication system that will prevent the stall warning system from functioning. The aircraft continues to slow with the autopilot holding altitude by applying increasing amounts of back-stick pressure until, during a moment when the pilot is distracted, the aircraft stalls without warning. An abrupt roll to the right that exceeds the autopilot bank limits causes the autopilot to disengage, resulting in an aggressive pitch down as the aircraft rapidly rolls back to the left. As the startled and disoriented pilot attempts to regain control of the aircraft, his instinctive control inputs actually aggravate the situation, and the aircraft executes five full rolls
to the right and a vertical dive before control is eventually regained. The aircraft experiences a 25 per cent over-G resulting in permanent deformation of the structure”

From https://dfa5nxhqcvh4w.cloudfront.net/wp ... n-UPRT.pdf
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 5:37 am

zeke wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I agree, The Key quote from ABC News: .The officials who spoke to ABC News point to the plane's flaps not being engaged and landing gear not put down. The near-vertical descent of the plane, they believe, would've required intentional force. Investigators also looked into one of the pilots' personal lives and background and believe he may have been struggling through certain issues right before the crash, ABC News has learned..


Gear and flap position have no relevance to attitude, and you can place an aircraft into a near vertical dive vertical dive very quickly through inattention and mishandling.

Loss of control in flight is still the largest cause of fatalities, and it can happen rather quickly without the crew being aware of what is happening.

Eg.

“ The pilot of a single-crew certified jet is climbing to FL410 on the An airplane in flight unintentionally exceeding the parameters normally autopilot with the throttles at max continuous thrust. During the climb, he notices that his airspeed is somewhat lower than expected. He reduces the vertical speed, thinking that doing so will allow the aircraft to accelerate. This action, however, is not enough and the aircraft continues to slow. Unbeknownst to the pilot, there is a malfunction in the angle of attack indication system that will prevent the stall warning system from functioning. The aircraft continues to slow with the autopilot holding altitude by applying increasing amounts of back-stick pressure until, during a moment when the pilot is distracted, the aircraft stalls without warning. An abrupt roll to the right that exceeds the autopilot bank limits causes the autopilot to disengage, resulting in an aggressive pitch down as the aircraft rapidly rolls back to the left. As the startled and disoriented pilot attempts to regain control of the aircraft, his instinctive control inputs actually aggravate the situation, and the aircraft executes five full rolls
to the right and a vertical dive before control is eventually regained. The aircraft experiences a 25 per cent over-G resulting in permanent deformation of the structure”

From https://dfa5nxhqcvh4w.cloudfront.net/wp ... n-UPRT.pdf



I can only cite the multiple media reports indicating likely pilot suicide. In fact the ABC News headline called the crash an intentional act and stated neither Boeing or the Chinese have found any mechanical issues with the aircraft, and reported the pilot in question appeared to have been "struggling through issues" that may have led to the crash.

If you have any current links that contradict the WSJ or ABC News by all means post.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/chinese-plane ... 55700.html
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 5:59 am

More news sources are now reporting the crash appears to be an intentional act including the BBC and Reuters.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61488976

.https://www.reuters.com/world/china/fli ... 022-05-17/
 
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vegas005
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:20 am

PixelPilot wrote:
vegas005 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
M564038 wrote:
This is ridicolous. It’s only been a month. There is no reason at all to claim there has been too much time consumed yet. Data recovery from damaged storage can be very demanding, and have to follow strict protocol. Then there are the analysis itself. Although the data is super-easy to read «like a flight simulator», the time is spent on recovery, reconstruction, verification and re-checking, after reading the data there is analysis and protocol. A month is a very short amount of time to get it right.



Yet the fleet is flying again, and no directives from Boeing, China, nor the FAA. They know....


As I said ..they knew ... intentional crash of the plane.
 
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zeke
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:21 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
I can only cite the multiple media reports indicating likely pilot suicide. In fact the ABC News headline called the crash an intentional act and stated neither Boeing or the Chinese have found any mechanical issues with the aircraft, and reported the pilot in question appeared to have been "struggling through issues" that may have led to the crash.


There is multiple news outlets rehashing the same WSJ article, NONE of them have the data or the report. I have made perfectly clear pilots can place aircraft into undesired aircraft states followed by loss of control. Like I stated previously, the Atlas Air accident is not different to what is being reported here, all that has actually been reported is the aircraft followed pilots control inputs. It is a big leap from that to say suicide. Newspapers want to say suicide as guess what, that generates income. NOT ONE HAS THE SOURCE DOCUMENT to be authoritative.

Lack of mechanical failure does not rule out an inadvertent incorrect selection or mishandling, have a look around and see how many incidents there have been where pilots have made the incorrect section for pressurization on the 737.

Also have a look around at NTSB reports provided to other countries that have asked for assistance with FDR/CVR readout, all the NTSB report will be is a factual report, they will not speculate on the cause.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:26 am

stinson108 wrote:
Time to develop a full proof system where the cockpit door cant be locked when there is only one pilot on deck.


Given Chinese airlines always fly with a third observer pilot (like this flight had) and have rules regarding all pilots back in the flight deck 20 minutes before top of descent, it is almost certain there would’ve been 2 pilots on the flight deck at the time, and possibly all 3.

So one could have overpowered one or even two other pilots. In Egyptair the Captain made it back to the flight deck but could not overpower the F/O. JAL 350 crash into Tokyo Bay in 1982, the Captain struggled with an F/O and a Flight Engineer. In FedEx the passenger almost overpowered 3 other pilots on the flight deck.

So suspicion looks like it will fall on the First Officer, the highly experienced former Captain who was demoted after a recent incident. There’s a potential motive. Perhaps he overpowered one or two other pilots. Maybe he put the aircraft into an unrecoverable state and the other pilots did not initially realise it.

Perhaps they were intimidated by him (even though he was a lower rank I’d imagine with his age, experience, former status as an instructor and reputation he would have commanded a lot of respect on the flight deck). The F/O on Egyptair was the former head of the Egyptian Air Force training school, and had trained most of Egyptair’s pilots, so he was addressed as “Captain” and in a way dominated above real Captains on he flight deck, meaning he was able to persuade the Captain to leave the flight deck temporarily before he out the aircraft into a dive. And that Egyptair F/O may have had a similar motive, facing disciplinary action and dismissal due to recent indiscretions.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:31 am

flyingturtle wrote:
The prevailing thought is that the single pilot in the cockpit must be able to lock the door - and he also must be able to override the lock when the correct code is entered. Likewise, a simple system with two keys (each of the pilots carries one) is not a good idea.

Why?

A terrorist points a gun to the pilot, and forces him to enter the code. To try to save his own life, he'll enter the correct code, even if it would doom all passengers (in a 9/11 scenario, for example). The pilot remaining in the cockpit must be able to sacrifice any crewmember's life if he thinks he can save the whole plane.

I know it's sordid, but it's the exact problem that doomed the Germanwings plane. A terrorist-proof door is always a pilot-proof door.


Post 2001 that scenario is unlikely. As soon as the passengers see someone attempting to get into the Flight Deck like that they’ll rise up and overpower them. This changed on that day, with United 93. There’s no more “please sit down patiently as we return to the airport and start negotiations”.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:36 am

Nomadd wrote:
There's a difference between a depressed person who ends his life and a mass murderer.


One doesn’t have to have a diagnosed mental health condition for this to occur.

Germanwings was a bit of an outlier in that the pilot had a long diagnosed and treated history of mental health issues. If you look at other cases, like Egyptair, Silk Air, FedEx, probably MH370 there’s no history of those pilots having a diagnosed mental health condition. They could have had one, but it wasn’t confirmed.

Incidents like this could be something other than a consequence of a mental health condition, they could just be a desperate act of revenge with no regard to consequences.
Last edited by sierrakilo44 on Wed May 18, 2022 6:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:41 am

zeke wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I can only cite the multiple media reports indicating likely pilot suicide. In fact the ABC News headline called the crash an intentional act and stated neither Boeing or the Chinese have found any mechanical issues with the aircraft, and reported the pilot in question appeared to have been "struggling through issues" that may have led to the crash.


There is multiple news outlets rehashing the same WSJ article, NONE of them have the data or the report. I have made perfectly clear pilots can place aircraft into undesired aircraft states followed by loss of control. Like I stated previously, the Atlas Air accident is not different to what is being reported here, all that has actually been reported is the aircraft followed pilots control inputs. It is a big leap from that to say suicide. Newspapers want to say suicide as guess what, that generates income. NOT ONE HAS THE SOURCE DOCUMENT to be authoritative.

Lack of mechanical failure does not rule out an inadvertent incorrect selection or mishandling, have a look around and see how many incidents there have been where pilots have made the incorrect section for pressurization on the 737.

Also have a look around at NTSB reports provided to other countries that have asked for assistance with FDR/CVR readout, all the NTSB report will be is a factual report, they will not speculate on the cause.



I understand your opinion. Sources cited from the NTSB in numerous articles state differently.
 
flybucky
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:46 am

32andBelow wrote:

Avatar2go wrote:
If the US leaked this ahead of the Chinese determination, CAAC will not be very happy with the NTSB. It is rather shocking, and may have implications for the future.

What are they going to say? They probably would have never released if

I think the implication is that in the future, China or other countries would be hesitant to hand over the data recorders to the NTSB for fear of getting the data leaked before the country's report is complete. Imagine this conversation:

China: We found the data recorders, but they may be damaged. Can we trust you to retrieve the data confidentially?

NTSB: Absolutely. We will retrieve the data, but we guarantee we will not release any of it.

Then a month later, some data gets leaked. While some people may think it's a good thing for the public to get the truth, the future implication is that countries may not hand the data recorders to the NTSB anymore, for fear of leak. So the next time a suspicious crash occurs, China will keep the data recorders in house, and no one will ever know the truth.

What's the difference? In the ideal scenario, NTSB processes the data and keeps it confidential. China produces their report and analysis. If NTSB disagrees with it, then they can leak data and let the world know the report is BS. If China doesn't hand it to NTSB, there will be no more "check and balance", and no one will know whether their report is BS or not. That would be a loss in the long term.
 
ryanov
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:57 am

Intentional control movements do not need to mean suicide. There have been numerous accidents caused by pilot input where the inputs by the pilot were indeed intentional, result of those inputs was not.
 
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zeke
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:59 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
I understand your opinion. Sources cited from the NTSB in numerous articles state differently.


There is no cited NTSB sources, the ABC article you linked earlier reached out to the NTSB and they referred the questions to the CAAC.
 
F9Animal
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 7:01 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
There's a difference between a depressed person who ends his life and a mass murderer.


Not really. People taking their own life in this way and those suffering from illnesses like depression are thinking and acting irrationally.

If this is true it's yet another piece of evidence we, as humans in general, need to change our approach to mental health issues in areas we like to pretend can have no weaknesses. All workers should feel like they can get treatment to manage long term illnesses without putting their livelihood or sense of self at needless risk. It will increase risk in some areas yes, but it will lower the overall risk. Only accepting perfection is stupid and actively dangerous. We allow pilots to wear glasses or to resume their job after breaking bones. We design and allow failure in so many mechanical systems in planes to get rid of as many single points of failure as is feasible. Why can't we do the same for mental health?


I wholeheartedly agree 110%. The mental health system is broken, and it's getting worse. I firmly believe more needs to be done to address it worldwide. None of us are immune to it, and it sadly affects so many of us. Mental Health isn't a choice, and the negative views of it need to be approached head on. Not to get off subject, but no sane person walks into a grocery store and guns down people. Just like a sane person doesn't deliberately crash a plane. This is tragic no matter how you look at it.

As for China being slow to confirm it? Can you blame them? It's awful, tragic, and mind-blowing. I also think they have alot of responsibility to ensure the investigation is thoroughly completed before coming forward with a complete finding. I'm sure there are still lots of questions that need answered. I also don't see a benefit for China or any other country to coverup a tragedy like this. We know this isn't just a "China" problem, this is a worldwide problem. We also know this isn't the first, nor will it be the last.

Which brings up some pretty interesting conversation regarding how to prevent this from happening again. Some are asking if technology can help prevent such a thing in the future? Gosh, I sure hope so! I hope it happens sooner than later. It's scary!

Now I wonder if there was an attempt to save the plane when it pulled out of the first dive? I bet that CVR is painful to listen to. Probably a fight to the very end. My heart goes out to the loved ones in this horrible tragedy. I think most of us are numb right now. I'm also sure alot of us suspected this.

Okay, I'm done sharing my feelings.
 
flybucky
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 7:30 am

Strato2 wrote:
Was this like the Germanwings flight in so that the other pilot left the cockpit and the other was then able to do his murderous deeds?

Even if this was deliberate pilot action, I think it was different than Germanwings. In Germanwings, the pilot was able to lock out the other pilot and was alone in the cockpit. He had a gradual steady descent.

If MU5735 was deliberate pilot action, it was most likely a struggle in the cockpit. First, there were 3 pilots in the cockpit, so it's much harder to lock out 2 of them. Also, the ADS-B data showed that it was a wild descent, with erratic vertical speed, and likely extreme roll angles (possibly 360º). All that would have been unnecessary if a single pilot was alone in cockpit.

So for those reasons, I think it is different than Germanwings.
 
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scbriml
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 7:39 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
More news sources are now reporting the crash appears to be an intentional act including the BBC and Reuters.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61488976

.https://www.reuters.com/world/china/fli ... 022-05-17/


Those are just rehashes of the same source story. None of them have the facts.
 
classicjets
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 7:45 am

Avatar2go wrote:
travaz wrote:
I find it interesting that the SCMP ran the story so quickly. I agree that maybe the Chinese want this floated in the press to see what the reaction is. Just my 2 Cents


The SCMP is a Hong-Kong outlet owned by Alibaba. They have more freedom than much of the Chinese press. The comments have numerous anti-China postings, but those are likely filtered in China.

It is possible that China is allowing the US to leak the story. I'd be a lot more comfortable with that than having the NTSB leaking confidential information. Their mission requires confidentiality as established by law and cooperative investigative agreements. I guess we'll see when CAAC responds.
The SCMP is entirely blocked in mainland China.

Sent from my ELE-L29 using Tapatalk
 
flybucky
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 7:55 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
I can only cite the multiple media reports indicating likely pilot suicide.
Sources cited from the NTSB in numerous articles state differently.

You have to be careful when claiming something has been corroborated by multiple media reports. Nowadays, a lot of articles are simply re-reporting other articles (basically the same as retweeting it). You have to actually read the article to see if they got their own sources, or if they're just re-reporting. I've looked at all the articles, WSJ, BBC, Reuters, SCMP, etc. And with the exception of one, they are all merely re-reporting the original WSJ article. So those don't count as additional sources.

The only article I've seen so far that isn't solely re-reporting the WSJ article is the ABC article (which was re-reported by Yahoo). "The officials who spoke to ABC News point to the plane's flaps not being engaged and landing gear not put down. The near-vertical descent of the plane, they believe, would've required intentional force." That shows that ABC actually spoke to the officials themselves, and also provided additional information not in the WSJ. https://abcnews.go.com/International/ch ... d=84782873

I'll also add that the flaps and landing gear not being down doesn't mean it was definitely suicide. The plane could have lost control initially due to other reasons. And once it's going too fast, the pilot's not going to be lowering the flaps or landing gear.
 
Spetsnaz55
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 7:59 am

Unfortunate situation of pilot suicide. I hope the mental health training the Chinese pilots went through right after the crash helped
 
Noshow
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 8:02 am

What would lowering the gear and flaps be good for in some extreme overspeed scenario? You would just create more problems.
 
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zeke
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 8:12 am

flybucky wrote:
Even if this was deliberate pilot action, I think it was different than Germanwings. In Germanwings, the pilot was able to lock out the other pilot and was alone in the cockpit. He had a gradual steady descent.

If MU5735 was deliberate pilot action, it was most likely a struggle in the cockpit. First, there were 3 pilots in the cockpit, so it's much harder to lock out 2 of them. Also, the ADS-B data showed that it was a wild descent, with erratic vertical speed, and likely extreme roll angles (possibly 360º). All that would have been unnecessary if a single pilot was alone in cockpit.

So for those reasons, I think it is different than Germanwings.


Germanwings accident had the autopilot engaged until impact with the ground. As you said it was a gradual descent until impact.
 
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zeke
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 8:23 am

ryanov wrote:
Intentional control movements do not need to mean suicide. There have been numerous accidents caused by pilot input where the inputs by the pilot were indeed intentional, result of those inputs was not.


Who would have thought something as simple as opening the cockpit door could almost crash an aircraft

See this 737 incident https://youtu.be/E5czgNZm2M8
 
Noshow
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 8:46 am

The engine thrust lever settings used during the descend will be interesting.

We should not open a new class of accident investigations that get hushed if the results are perceived to be "insulting" or similar. This is not what accident investigation is about.
 
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InnsbruckFlyer
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 8:56 am

Spetsnaz55 wrote:
Unfortunate situation of pilot suicide. I hope the mental health training the Chinese pilots went through right after the crash helped


Let's hope that, even if they don't admit it to the public, the CAAC privately acknowledges the cause and takes the appropriate actions.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 9:33 am

If aircraft get to be so safe that pilot suicide becomes a significant cause of passenger fatalities in crashes, there will be a clamour for pilotless planes.

We need to start measuring crashes avoided by pilot action, that would not have been avoided had the plane been pilotless.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 10:19 am

CAAC is saying they spoke to NTSB, and were assured that NTSB did not release any information to the media. So they are treating it as an unfounded rumor of the US press. Their position is that their investigation continues.
 
Strato2
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 10:51 am

zeke wrote:

Germanwings accident had the autopilot engaged until impact with the ground. As you said it was a gradual descent until impact.


By definition Germanwings flight 9525 was no accident.
 
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zeke
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 11:01 am

Strato2 wrote:

By definition Germanwings flight 9525 was no accident.


Reference ICAO Annex 13

“ Accident. An occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight until such time as all such persons have disembarked, in which:

a) a person is fatally or seriously injured as a result of

- being in the aircraft, or

- direct contact with any part of the aircraft, including parts which have become detached from the aircraft, or

- direct exposure to jet blast”
 
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giosue61
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 12:26 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
CAAC is saying they spoke to NTSB, and were assured that NTSB did not release any
information to the media. So they are treating it as an unfounded rumor of the US press. Their position is that their investigation continues.


Same words, as expected, in the Chinese press.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202205/ ... 5d809.html
 
majano
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 12:30 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
If aircraft get to be so safe that pilot suicide becomes a significant cause of passenger fatalities in crashes, there will be a clamour for pilotless planes.

We need to start measuring crashes avoided by pilot action, that would not have been avoided had the plane been pilotless.

I agree wholeheartedly with this. It is not only intentional actions of the cockpit crew, but also inadvertent actions which have to be considered.
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 12:41 pm

It is probably a stretch to believe a "Newspaper of Record", in this case the Wall St Journal, would publish such information without meaningful confirmation despite some of the odd inferences included in the report (Well of course pilots think about lowering flaps and landing gear when they are staring directly at the ground above barber pole! The landing gear might be reasonable, but the flaps? No...)

That said, the "leak" of such information in the U.S. may have less to do with embarrassing China as putting a finger on the scales of the proposal by airlines to extend medical certification of pilots to the age of 67... I'm on record trying to extol the virtue of experience in the cockpit, but due to human biology and typical aging, there is a limit to the usefulness of that concept and this incident may be used as a way of manipulating opinion on potential legislation on the matter, thus the "U.S. leak".

As I've stated in prior posts, I'll give the crew the benefit of the doubt until the evidence is well and truly "in", but it certainly looks like, walks like, and quacks like a duck.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 12:58 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
If aircraft get to be so safe that pilot suicide becomes a significant cause of passenger fatalities in crashes, there will be a clamour for pilotless planes.

We need to start measuring crashes avoided by pilot action, that would not have been avoided had the plane been pilotless.


Numerous time I've had Autopilot failure or a mode go haywire. Did that "near death experience" make news headlines, a movie, an "Air Crash Investigation" episode.......

No, simply disconnect the Autopilot, manually fly to the destination and write it up in the log for technicians to fix overnight. And drive home to do it all again tomorrow.

And "pilotless planes" will have to have a control centre. All a bad actor has to do is take over the control centre, or hack into the datalinks, and instead of being in control of one aircraft they control hundreds.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 2:05 pm

OldB747Driver wrote:
It is probably a stretch to believe a "Newspaper of Record", in this case the Wall St Journal, would publish such information without meaningful confirmation despite some of the odd inferences included in the report (Well of course pilots think about lowering flaps and landing gear when they are staring directly at the ground above barber pole! The landing gear might be reasonable, but the flaps? No...)

That said, the "leak" of such information in the U.S. may have less to do with embarrassing China as putting a finger on the scales of the proposal by airlines to extend medical certification of pilots to the age of 67... I'm on record trying to extol the virtue of experience in the cockpit, but due to human biology and typical aging, there is a limit to the usefulness of that concept and this incident may be used as a way of manipulating opinion on potential legislation on the matter, thus the "U.S. leak".

As I've stated in prior posts, I'll give the crew the benefit of the doubt until the evidence is well and truly "in", but it certainly looks like, walks like, and quacks like a duck.



There are a number of outlets left, particularly in aviation, that still seem to be reputable. I find it highly doubtful that the WSJ, Reuters, or the BBC would not properly source their articles. Until further evidence is presented ( if it is presented) their reporting indicates it was likely an intentional act by the pilot. I see no reason to disbelieve them based on the facts presented.
 
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ER757
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 4:06 pm

zeke wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
That was a hard link to read (I muted the video by choice). I'm sad to hear this. RIP to the passengers. That is not an easy conclusion to come to.

Lightsaber


The video I get when I open that link is very old, they are talking about just discovering one of the black boxes and citing “intelligence sources” that it was intentional because of the high rate of descent, not the actual data retrieved.

ABC contacted the NTSB, the NTSB did not confirm any of the details, the only officials that would have access to the FDR/CVR are with the NTSB.

In reply 1076 above the SCMP is quoted

“ Data recovered from the black box suggests that someone in the cockpit input controls that sent the plane into its deadly descent, the Journal reported, citing people familiar with US officials’ preliminary assessment of the incident. ”
Zeke - thank you for bringing this up, I was thinking the same thing. There are a number of scenarios where pilot inputs could result in an unrecoverable dive - suicide/murder is just one of those scenarios. I'm not saying it wasn't pilot suicide/mass murder, I'm just saying we can't draw that conclusion just because the FDR showed deliberate action by the crew

I would suggest the exact same words could be used to describe Atlas Air Flight 3591, it was the pilot control inputs that resulted in the near vertical descent.
 
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ER757
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 4:10 pm

Don't know what happened to my text on the above quoted post, so re-ending.
Zeke, thank you for brining this up. I was thinking the same thing - there are a number of scenarios where pilot input could result in an unrecoverable dive. Yes, pilot suicide is certainly one and I am not saying that wasn't the case here, but it can't be confirmed simply by reading the FDR data.
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 618
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 4:15 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
ElroyJetson wrote:
OldB747Driver wrote:
It is probably a stretch to believe a "Newspaper of Record", in this case the Wall St Journal, would publish such information without meaningful confirmation despite some of the odd inferences included in the report (Well of course pilots think about lowering flaps and landing gear when they are staring directly at the ground above barber pole! The landing gear might be reasonable, but the flaps? No...)

That said, the "leak" of such information in the U.S. may have less to do with embarrassing China as putting a finger on the scales of the proposal by airlines to extend medical certification of pilots to the age of 67... I'm on record trying to extol the virtue of experience in the cockpit, but due to human biology and typical aging, there is a limit to the usefulness of that concept and this incident may be used as a way of manipulating opinion on potential legislation on the matter, thus the "U.S. leak".

As I've stated in prior posts, I'll give the crew the benefit of the doubt until the evidence is well and truly "in", but it certainly looks like, walks like, and quacks like a duck.



There are a number of outlets left, particularly in aviation, that still seem to be reputable. I find it highly doubtful that the WSJ, Reuters, or the BBC would not properly source their articles. Until further evidence is presented ( if it is presented) their reporting indicates it was likely an intentional act by the pilot. I see no reason to disbelieve them based on the facts presented.


I tend to agree with you. While not impossible, I do find it hard to believe that not one, but multiple worldwide-respected news sources would tolerate stories without proper sourcing. That’s exactly what gets reporters at highly reputable news sources suspended or fired.
 
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enzo011
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 5:13 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
I tend to agree with you. While not impossible, I do find it hard to believe that not one, but multiple worldwide-respected news sources would tolerate stories without proper sourcing. That’s exactly what gets reporters at highly reputable news sources suspended or fired.



I think you need to watch what they are reporting. Are they reporting that they have sources, or are they reporting that the WSJ is reporting?

China Eastern plane crash likely intentional, US reports say

Flight data indicates a China Eastern Airlines plane that crashed in March was intentionally put into a nose-dive, according to US media reports.


In the case of the BBC they are reporting what others have reported, not their own sources. There is nothing wrong with this, as long as you attribute where you are getting the information from. Other news outlets seems to have their own sources, but lets not pretend that news agencies wouldn't report what others have reported as it happens quite frequently.
 
Avatar2go
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 6:28 pm

I think probably CAAC needs to control the messaging at home, and that messaging frequently says that Western news outlets are unreliable. So it's not a stretch or difficult for them to say this is a rumor.

At the same time, the Western outlets involved are unlikely to publish without confirming a source. So it must be people in a position to know, who have seen the flight recorder data. But apparently not heard the cockpit recorder which would help to clarify the issue.

So in the end, we still should wait for the investigative report to understand what actually happened.
 
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garpd
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 8:06 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
on Egypt 990 why is it that their investigators say it was a mechanical failure while us investigators say it was intentionally crashed into the ocean


Because in Egypt, suicide is a very shameful act. Better to say it was mechanical failure and absolve the pilot and his family of the shame of suicide and murder.
 
mxaxai
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Re: China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

Wed May 18, 2022 8:28 pm

flybucky wrote:
You have to be careful when claiming something has been corroborated by multiple media reports. Nowadays, a lot of articles are simply re-reporting other articles (basically the same as retweeting it). You have to actually read the article to see if they got their own sources, or if they're just re-reporting. I've looked at all the articles, WSJ, BBC, Reuters, SCMP, etc. And with the exception of one, they are all merely re-reporting the original WSJ article. So those don't count as additional sources.

The only article I've seen so far that isn't solely re-reporting the WSJ article is the ABC article (which was re-reported by Yahoo). "The officials who spoke to ABC News point to the plane's flaps not being engaged and landing gear not put down. The near-vertical descent of the plane, they believe, would've required intentional force." That shows that ABC actually spoke to the officials themselves, and also provided additional information not in the WSJ. https://abcnews.go.com/International/ch ... d=84782873

I'll also add that the flaps and landing gear not being down doesn't mean it was definitely suicide. The plane could have lost control initially due to other reasons. And once it's going too fast, the pilot's not going to be lowering the flaps or landing gear.

Good points. All the leaked info indicates is that (a) no technical issue prior to the dive was found in the FDR and (b) pilot input initiated the dive.

While news outlets love jumping to conclusions and suicide certainly remains a possibility, we still can't rule out accidental pilot inputs. The CVR should help clarify but none of the articles mention it.

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