China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

bhill · Wed May 18, 2022 8:52 pm

I think the reason the Chinese are not saying anything is because they are going to have to lawyer up. And they sure as hell are not going to say ANYTHING until the lawyers approve it. How was the Germanwings case litigated?

32andBelow · Wed May 18, 2022 9:31 pm

bhill wrote:
I think the reason the Chinese are not saying anything is because they are going to have to lawyer up. And they sure as hell are not going to say ANYTHING until the lawyers approve it. How was the Germanwings case litigated?

What? It’s a dictatorship. Who is going to sue them?

Avatar2go · Wed May 18, 2022 11:03 pm

I think the Chinese will not address this until their investigation is complete, which will take some time. Even if they already have some idea of what happened, we won't hear about it until they are ready to control the discussion in China. That's just how they do things.

The major question is how much information they will ultimately release publicly, and how they will explain the flight data. Just have to wait and see. If their conclusions are fraudulent, then I think you would see the NTSB speak up. But not before.

trad01 · Wed May 18, 2022 11:26 pm

bhill wrote:
I think the reason the Chinese are not saying anything is because they are going to have to lawyer up. And they sure as hell are not going to say ANYTHING until the lawyers approve it. How was the Germanwings case litigated?

"Laywer up?" This will be difficult. Lawyers end up in jail in China.

Opus99 · Wed May 18, 2022 11:47 pm

Why on earth would the NTSB say one of their colleagues have leaked information to the press?

Of course no information was officially provided to the media. They’re literally not allowed to do that

Good luck getting the NTSB to say their staff leaked the info

Doesn’t mean the info is not correct

zeke · Thu May 19, 2022 1:56 am

Opus99 wrote:
Why on earth would the NTSB say one of their colleagues have leaked information to the press?

Of course no information was officially provided to the media. They’re literally not allowed to do that

Good luck getting the NTSB to say their staff leaked the info

Doesn’t mean the info is not correct

To claim that an official provided the information to the media, and an official CAAC statement that no information has been provided to the media contradicts statements made in the press.

jbs2886 · Thu May 19, 2022 2:26 am

Man I’ve never seen anyone go to such lengths to want there to be a problem with a (Boeing) aircraft - like the media has a Boeing bias. :roll:

sxf24 · Thu May 19, 2022 3:12 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Why on earth would the NTSB say one of their colleagues have leaked information to the press?

Of course no information was officially provided to the media. They’re literally not allowed to do that

Good luck getting the NTSB to say their staff leaked the info

Doesn’t mean the info is not correct

To claim that an official provided the information to the media, and an official CAAC statement that no information has been provided to the media contradicts statements made in the press.

I’m not sure you understand some of the semantics used by Western journalists. An “official” is a label commonly used for a government employee speaking anonymously. An official can be speaking independently without the approval of the agency or as a spokesperson.

There are circumstances where an official provides information to a journalist that the company later denies!

Sydscott · Thu May 19, 2022 3:20 am

trad01 wrote:
bhill wrote:
I think the reason the Chinese are not saying anything is because they are going to have to lawyer up. And they sure as hell are not going to say ANYTHING until the lawyers approve it. How was the Germanwings case litigated?

"Laywer up?" This will be difficult. Lawyers end up in jail in China.

In general that seems like a good place for them....... ;-)

Dreamflight767 · Thu May 19, 2022 3:52 am

I wonder if the "source" is actually someone from Boeing or within the Chinese government.

Avatar2go · Thu May 19, 2022 4:01 am

Dreamflight767 wrote:
I wonder if the "source" is actually someone from Boeing or within the Chinese government.

It wouldn't be China as they said US officials. I've wondered about Boeing but am not sure whether they'd be identified as such in the media or not. I'd guess it's not Boeing as that would introduce bias that the press would likely report, also China remains a major customer for Boeing.

argentinevol98 · Thu May 19, 2022 5:11 am

Dreamflight767 wrote:
I wonder if the "source" is actually someone from Boeing or within the Chinese government.

Unlikely to be either, the term “US official” basically narrows it to someone working for federal government, most likely the NTSB. They wouldn’t specify US for a Chinese official and if it was Boeing they would wouldn’t call them a US official either. A Boeing source would likely be labelled as “a source close to the investigation” or something like that (would likely be similar for a Chinese official since specifying “Chinese official” could put such a source in needless risk).

buzzard302 · Thu May 19, 2022 12:55 pm

If I had to guess, the data from the FDR and the CVR has been reviewed. Everyone is right by saying the FDR data could not necessarily prove or disprove an intentional act. But add in the CVR and there must be a reason for this leaked conclusion. So someone must have leaked knowledge of what is on the CVR in my opinion. We as the general public may not ever know the whole true story behind this one.

travaz · Thu May 19, 2022 2:34 pm

buzzard302 wrote:
If I had to guess, the data from the FDR and the CVR has been reviewed. Everyone is right by saying the FDR data could not necessarily prove or disprove an intentional act. But add in the CVR and there must be a reason for this leaked conclusion. So someone must have leaked knowledge of what is on the CVR in my opinion. We as the general public may not ever know the whole true story behind this one.

In the General public's mind the cause has been determined and end of story, not speaking of the people on this site but the average person with little or no knowledge about Aviation. When the official cause is announced it will be relegated to page 5. IMHO China may put out something like "No technical fault was found with the Aircraft and Pilot error is considered to be a factor" They will dance around the issue. It is interesting that China Southern failed to mention a plan for the 100 Maxes they have on order. This could be a retaliation for the leak.

BEG2IAH · Thu May 19, 2022 4:00 pm

travaz wrote:
In the General public's mind the cause has been determined and end of story, not speaking of the people on this site but the average person with little or no knowledge about Aviation.

Reading this ad verbum you are saying that if someone has any knowledge of aviation, and he/she is not the clueless general public, this could not have been a suicide. What if it was after all? Not saying that's what you meant to say, but that's how it reads.

I agree about the potential MAX order retaliation you mentioned.

Avatar2go · Thu May 19, 2022 4:24 pm

buzzard302 wrote:
If I had to guess, the data from the FDR and the CVR has been reviewed. Everyone is right by saying the FDR data could not necessarily prove or disprove an intentional act. But add in the CVR and there must be a reason for this leaked conclusion. So someone must have leaked knowledge of what is on the CVR in my opinion. We as the general public may not ever know the whole true story behind this one.

There was no reference to the CVR data in any of the stories. I suspect that would be offered as further evidence, if it was available. Also suspect that was the reason they held out the option that the inputs might have been forced or from other than the pilots.

Avatar2go · Thu May 19, 2022 4:29 pm

travaz wrote:

It is interesting that China Southern failed to mention a plan for the 100 Maxes they have on order. This could be a retaliation for the leak.

The reason given in their statement was delivery uncertainty. That could refer to Boeing ability to deliver, or their ability to accept, or both. Travel market is depressed in China right now. The financial reports were likely written before the leak.

ranold76 · Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:39 am

Again......the silence is deafening.
Still nothing official from anyone.
Over a month since a post in this thread.

N14AZ · Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:57 am

I guess the Chinese government doesn’t like the results of the investigation. It simply doesn’t fit to their agenda and the timing is bad. They will wait with announcements until nobody is interested any longer…
That’s what I think.

JohanTally · Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:09 am

It's hard to get that steep of a descent without deliberate actions from someone in the cockpit.

https://nypost.com/2022/05/17/black-box ... ional-act/

32andBelow · Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:36 am

N14AZ wrote:
I guess the Chinese government doesn’t like the results of the investigation. It simply doesn’t fit to their agenda and the timing is bad. They will wait with announcements until nobody is interested any longer…
That’s what I think.

The announcement was the leak. That’s how these people operate. You’ll never hear anything else about it.

WNbob · Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:42 pm

They promised quick 30 days resolution, LOL. Don't make a Chinese (copilot) lose face.

SInGAPORE_AIR · Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:31 am

N14AZ wrote:
I guess the Chinese government doesn’t like the results of the investigation. It simply doesn’t fit to their agenda and the timing is bad. They will wait with announcements until nobody is interested any longer…

Agreed and bingo. CCP not wanting to lose face.

Avatar2go · Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:31 am

It's becoming common for accident investigation reports to be delayed indefinitely in some authoritative countries, if they reflect badly on the local airline or pilots. This is necessary because participating agencies from other countries, have the right to include dissenting views in the report.

Thus if the local agency tries to whitewash, that will be exposed. But if they say nothing, the participating agencies are bound by confidentiality, and can also say nothing.

miegapele · Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:05 am

Avatar2go wrote:
It's becoming common for accident investigation reports to be delayed indefinitely in some authoritative countries, if they reflect badly on the local airline or pilots. This is necessary because participating agencies from other countries, have the right to include dissenting views in the report.

Thus if the local agency tries to whitewash, that will be exposed. But if they say nothing, the participating agencies are bound by confidentiality, and can also say nothing.

NTSB took more than a year to issue report on Atlas air crash. So some supposed non-authoritarive countries drag feet to avoid reflect badly on local pilots too.

Avatar2go · Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:15 am

miegapele wrote:

NTSB took more than a year to issue report on Atlas air crash. So some supposed non-authoritarive countries drag feet to avoid reflect badly on local pilots too.

Sorry, but there is no comparison. In the Atlas accident, the NTSB released the CVR report within 2 weeks, and the FDR report within 3 weeks. They released the full docket 9 months later, but took an additional 7 months to release their conclusions and recommendations.

Further the NTSB is intentionally set up as an independent agency, so they have no obligation to the government, pilots, airlines, or manufacturers. Nor can they take any action against any of those entities. Their only job is to investigate & establish causes and make recommendations to avoid future accidents.

Notably, they frequently find fault with the FAA, which is an essential freedom they must have to do their job properly.

garpd · Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:49 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
Sorry, but there is no comparison. ...

Completely agree. The NTSB is not perfect, but they have certainly never held their punches when it comes to pointing blame and they have complete freedom to do so.

China is demonstratively a very controlling country, micromanaging everything like every communist country does. If the CVR or FDR has indeed shown that this crash was an intentional act, they will very likely bury it under red tape. Or do an Egypt and just blame mechanical failure and not produce an ounce of evidence to support that (Egyptair 990). We have every reason to expect this. Those confidently expecting a fair and open investigation with no bias are kidding themselves.

Noshow · Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:55 pm

bhill wrote:
I think the reason the Chinese are not saying anything is because they are going to have to lawyer up. And they sure as hell are not going to say ANYTHING until the lawyers approve it. How was the Germanwings case litigated?

The French prosecutor published many details early on creating full transparency and blocking any possible early cover up or spin doctoring. This way the facts became known much more early than to wait until full accident investigations could be completed and released.

Avatar2go · Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:54 pm

Noshow wrote:

The French prosecutor published many details early on creating full transparency and blocking any possible early cover up or spin doctoring. This way the facts became known much more early than to wait until full accident investigations could be completed and released.

Yes, the Germanwings accident is a case in point regarding differences in the West. The criminal investigation takes precedence over the accident investigation, although they may be concurrent.

Brice Robin took the investigation public as soon as he realized it was a suicide. That was partially to stop conspiracy theories, but also to give a full public accounting.

In China, there is no mention of criminal investigation of the pilots, they likely will characterize it as an accident of some sort. They have limited options since NTSB and Boeing are parties to the investigation.

889091 · Mon Oct 24, 2022 10:02 pm

Any further developments on this? Crash occurred more than 7 months ago....

Avatar2go · Mon Oct 24, 2022 10:11 pm

Crickets. There will never be an acknowledgement of what actually happened, and the families are being kept quiet.

SInGAPORE_AIR · Tue Oct 25, 2022 1:45 am

And people were lambasting me above for asking for a timeline....

Delaxio · Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:22 am

I doubt we will ever get a truthful account of this investigation.

I thought a preliminary report was supposed to come out 30 days after the accident. Is it an actual ICAO regulation/requirement or just convention? Even the Iranians released the prelim report for the Ukrainian 737 shoot down before admitting guilt!

zeke · Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:33 am

Delaxio wrote:
I doubt we will ever get a truthful account of this investigation.

I thought a preliminary report was supposed to come out 30 days after the accident. Is it an actual ICAO regulation/requirement or just convention? Even the Iranians released the prelim report for the Ukrainian 737 shoot down before admitting guilt!

30 days is standard, however it can just be reported to ICAO, not to the general public.

Avatar2go · Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:40 am

Delaxio wrote:
I doubt we will ever get a truthful account of this investigation.

I thought a preliminary report was supposed to come out 30 days after the accident. Is it an actual ICAO regulation/requirement or just convention? Even the Iranians released the prelim report for the Ukrainian 737 shoot down before admitting guilt!

They did release a preliminary report. It basically recounted the known facts of the case, but included no new information.

They may or may not release a full report. If they do, it may not include much information either. They can remain vague or claim the cause is undetermined.

In other cases, nations have skipped the final report or delayed it indefinitely. The one thing that's difficult to do is give a false analysis, because agencies from other nations are involved in the investigation.

na · Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:44 am

The longer it takes, the higher the chance that the cause of the crash does not fit the agenda of the Chinese regime. That the tensions in the world have become even higher since the crash makes it even worse.

garpd · Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:52 pm

The silence on this situation is deafening. It's been months now and still no information released. The more they remain silent, the more people will make up their own minds. At some point that could be detrimental to Chinese aviation.

Boeing757100 · Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:02 pm

I don't know if this is a pointless comparisson, but for Egyptair 990, the investigation also got politically involved. However, I think the investigation on 990 was a bit more fast paced than the silence regarding MU5735, and the NTSB came to their own conclusion two weeks after the crash of 990, which the ECAA disapproved of and made their own theories.

I'm sorry for my terrible comparissons and theories but is it possible that the NTSB already knows what happened and are being silenced in the interest of politics? I'd be happy to be proven wrong..

Avatar2go · Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:29 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
I don't know if this is a pointless comparisson, but for Egyptair 990, the investigation also got politically involved. However, I think the investigation on 990 was a bit more fast paced than the silence regarding MU5735, and the NTSB came to their own conclusion two weeks after the crash of 990, which the ECAA disapproved of and made their own theories.

I'm sorry for my terrible comparissons and theories but is it possible that the NTSB already knows what happened and are being silenced in the interest of politics? I'd be happy to be proven wrong..

The NTSB, as a prerequisite of participation, must allow the agency of record (CAAC) to release information about the investigation. Once that agency provides their report, the NTSB and other involved entities can dissent, and include their opinion in an appendix to the report.

This is why final reports sometimes are delayed for long periods, or never occur, because the agency of record knows there would be strong dissent of their findings.

In the case of MS990, the accident occurred in international waters, so NTSB and ECAA had joint custody of the investigation. ECAA initially asked the NTSB to take the lead. However NTSB soon wanted to turn the investigation over to the FBI, as a potential criminal act, but the ECAA refused to allow this.

Thus the NTSB and ECAA both pursued their own investigations, and both published reports, which they were allowed to do under the joint rules. That cannot happen in the current Chinese case. CAAC must publish the investigation report.

Polot · Wed Oct 26, 2022 12:06 am

garpd wrote:
The silence on this situation is deafening. It's been months now and still no information released. The more they remain silent, the more people will make up their own minds. At some point that could be detrimental to Chinese aviation.

I mean at this point I think everyone recognizes that it was the result of pilot action (probably deliberate but will give benefit of doubt and say gross pilot error also possibility). Zero AD’s from Boeing stemming from this, 737NG operations quietly restarted (at a time of lot of political tension between US and China), there is clearly no mechanical issue China can blame.

Complete lack of any information is because China knows why the plane crashed, embarrassed by it as it does not align with Chinese values, and would rather everyone completely forget about the accident. This is why you don’t even see them use the crash in any anti-US propaganda or rhetoric.

Dominion301 · Wed Oct 26, 2022 1:13 am

I’d be shocked if this was anything but pilot suicide. The deafening silence from a dictatorship nation says a lot.

RobertS975 · Wed Oct 26, 2022 1:16 am

I agree with this last important point... if this event was the fault of the aircraft in any way, we would have been made well aware of those findings.

garpd · Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:21 pm

Polot wrote:
I mean at this point I think everyone recognizes that it was the result of pilot action (probably deliberate but will give benefit of doubt and say gross pilot error also possibility).

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't thinking exactly the same.

Boeing757100 · Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:32 pm

RobertS975 wrote:
I agree with this last important point... if this event was the fault of the aircraft in any way, we would have been made well aware of those findings.

That's true, even if it say is not pilot suicide, it is likely another factor that has something to do with their own pilots. If it hadn't had anything to do with their pilots, then they would have been much quicker in getting the news out that someone else needed the blame.

BB78710 · Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:17 am

RobertS975 wrote:
I agree with this last important point... if this event was the fault of the aircraft in any way, we would have been made well aware of those findings.

Agreed, if this was in any way mechanical error or Boeings fault we would have heard something by now especially given the state of US-China relations, they were the first to ground the 737MAX (although the aircraft involved isn't a MAX) and the last to certify the MAX and China's push to get COMAC C919 on the world stage. If their investigation showed even a hint of a problem with the aircraft China would have taken action and would have publicized the information because of the damage it would do to Boeing's already damaged reputation.

There silence definitely speaks volumes.

gzm · Fri Oct 28, 2022 5:00 am

BB78710 wrote:
If their investigation showed even a hint of a problem with the aircraft, China would have taken action and would have publicized the information because of the damage it would do to Boeing's already damaged reputation.

Their silence definitely speaks volumes.

Depends on how you interpret it. And if, IF this is the last thing Boeing needs now, wouldn’t they take action to have the report postponed indefinitely?

They certainly would.

PS. How many Chinese people are there in this forum? Reveal yourselves! What is the public opinion about this in China?

SInGAPORE_AIR · Fri Oct 28, 2022 5:53 am

gzm wrote:
What is the public opinion about this in China?

The Chinese public have opinions ? Are you kidding ?

usxguy · Fri Oct 28, 2022 6:34 am

SInGAPORE_AIR wrote:
gzm wrote:
What is the public opinion about this in China?

The Chinese public have opinions ? Are you kidding ?

some people are taught in college that socialism and communism is a GOOD thing, so they don't understand REAL socialism or communism! That there is ONLY ONE opinion that matters, and its the one approved by those in power. I wonder if a.net is evem accessible in China? As others stated, the only findings released are those the Chinese government feels is pertinent or must get out...

Btw has anyone been able to replicate what happened in a sim yet? *or made those findings public?

Avatar2go · Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:40 am

usxguy wrote:

Btw has anyone been able to replicate what happened in a sim yet? *or made those findings public?

A sim doesn't help without knowledge of what the events were. If the flight recorder data were released, that would be another matter. The absence of that data is what's telling.

Avatar2go · Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:51 am

gzm wrote:
Depends on how you interpret it. And if, IF this is the last thing Boeing needs now, wouldn’t they take action to have the report postponed indefinitely?

They certainly would.

So your theory is that the Chinese are being restricted by Boeing from releasing the data? That has to be the mother of all unplausable conspiracy theories!!!

By what mechanism could that even occur? CAAC is the investigating agency of record, with control over dissemination of all evidence and data. Boeing is a party to the investigation to facilitate with engineering data.

Here is the truth: CAAC and all the involved parties, including Boeing, FAA, NTSB, know what happened here. But CAAC is the only party that can legally release the data to the public. The other parties are bound by non-disclosure. That's where we stand now.

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