China Eastern 737-800 crashes in Guangxi, southern China

classicjets · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:11 am

Being reported in Chinese news and social media that contact has been lost with a China Eastern 737-800 B-1791 flying KMG-CAN about two-thirds of the way along the route at Wuzhou, Guangxi. The flight is reported to have had 133 people on board. Flightradar24 shows a fast descent from its cruising altitude of around 28,000 feet. Images and videos on social media show fuselage debris and a large plume of smoke in a mountainous and wooded area.

Sorry no English link found yet: https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=172789 ... der&for=pc
https://news.ifeng.com/c/8EZ6K8tir1S

VRHNM · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:15 am

Unverified footage: https://twitter.com/TTabaoshab/status/1 ... 3D36b4834b

Unverified photos of a piece of wreckage(?) Characters do depict China Eastern titles: https://na.cx/i/xZu3nE9.jpg

alex0easy · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:17 am

Confirmed crashed by state media CCTV. Plane was carrying 133 people.
https://view.inews.qq.com/a/TWF20220321 ... =798476337
Sorry still no English. Please use the translate function on Chrome or something.
Doesn't look good.

VRHNM · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:22 am

alex0easy wrote:
Confirmed crashed by state media CCTV. Plane was carrying 133 people.
https://view.inews.qq.com/a/TWF20220321 ... =798476337
Doesn't look good.

Translation of text:
Guangxi provincial authorities have told reporters that a China Eastern B737 with 133 passengers has been involved in an accident and caused a forest fire. Rescue is on its way with no information on casualties at the moment.

Aesma · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:37 am

My first guess is CFIT.

alex0easy · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:39 am

http://www.caac.gov.cn/XWZX/MHYW/202203 ... 12463.html
CAAC confirms the crash in Wuzhou. Says plane was carrying 132 people, 123 passengers and 9 crew. CAAC has dispatched a team to the site.

mxaxai · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:41 am

B-1791 built in 2015, featuring a special livery.

mxaxai · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:44 am

Aesma wrote:
My first guess is CFIT.

CFIT doesn't make sense given the FR24 data. Looks like a pretty steep descent straight from cruise altitude. Unless they were performing an emergency descent and forgot to stop.

ZaphodHarkonnen · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:47 am

mxaxai wrote:
Aesma wrote:
My first guess is CFIT.

CFIT doesn't make sense given the FR24 data. Looks like a pretty steep descent straight from cruise altitude. Unless they were performing an emergency descent and forgot to stop.

Look at the speed. It stays constant through the early part of the descent.

Hopefully the cause can be identified quickly for the families and loved ones involved.

n797mx · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:48 am

VRHNM wrote:
Unverified footage: https://twitter.com/TTabaoshab/status/1 ... 3D36b4834b

Unverified photos of a piece of wreckage(?) Characters do depict China Eastern titles: https://na.cx/i/xZu3nE9.jpg

If that is real footage, the smoke is white, not grey or black you’d expect with a plane crash. It seems as if the woods are burning and not the plane itself?

B787oftheworld · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:48 am

High altitude stall ?

Spetsnaz55 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:51 am

-31,000 FPM that's crazy

classicjets · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:55 am

Providing English link: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... crew-board

Milesdependent · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:57 am

How’s the weather at the sight anyone know ?

classicjets · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:57 am

VRHNM wrote:
Unverified footage: https://twitter.com/TTabaoshab/status/1 ... 3D36b4834b

Unverified photos of a piece of wreckage(?) Characters do depict China Eastern titles: https://na.cx/i/xZu3nE9.jpg

Any idea what part of the aircraft that could be (in the picture)? I don't see any matching text in that colour on the aircraft photos in the database.

Spetsnaz55 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:58 am

classicjets wrote:
VRHNM wrote:
Unverified footage: https://twitter.com/TTabaoshab/status/1 ... 3D36b4834b

Unverified photos of a piece of wreckage(?) Characters do depict China Eastern titles: https://na.cx/i/xZu3nE9.jpg

Any idea what part of the aircraft that could be (in the picture)? I don't see any matching text in that colour on the aircraft photos in the database.

Looks like a piece of lower wing panel to me

Noshow · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:58 am

Very steep descent like free fall. Like only two minutes from TOD to impact. Much steeper than any controlled emergency descent.

jeffrey0032j · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:58 am

classicjets wrote:
VRHNM wrote:
Unverified footage: https://twitter.com/TTabaoshab/status/1 ... 3D36b4834b

Unverified photos of a piece of wreckage(?) Characters do depict China Eastern titles: https://na.cx/i/xZu3nE9.jpg

Any idea what part of the aircraft that could be (in the picture)? I don't see any matching text in that colour on the aircraft photos in the database.

Its the wing, Chinese airlines paint their names or logos on the wings.

Aesma · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:59 am

mxaxai wrote:
Aesma wrote:
My first guess is CFIT.

CFIT doesn't make sense given the FR24 data. Looks like a pretty steep descent straight from cruise altitude. Unless they were performing an emergency descent and forgot to stop.

I was only taking into account the smoothness of the descent, and figured they were landing and made a mistake putting terrain in their path.

However you're right that the descent is fast, and looks like an emergency one after a decompression. So maybe they were performing that with the autopilot, and lost consciousness. Was there a distress call ?

hitower3 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:02 am

B787oftheworld wrote:
High altitude stall ?

While it's too early to speculate about the cause(s) of this accident, a stall looks rather unlikely. Based on FR24 data, the speed remains very constant, as the rate of descent. A stall would require a drop in airspeed, followed by a rapid onset of a descent, followed by significant variations of speed and descent rate.
The available data rather suggests that the plane was in a controlled flight envelope until the impact.

JibberJim · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:02 am

classicjets wrote:
VRHNM wrote:
Unverified footage: https://twitter.com/TTabaoshab/status/1 ... 3D36b4834b

Unverified photos of a piece of wreckage(?) Characters do depict China Eastern titles: https://na.cx/i/xZu3nE9.jpg

Any idea what part of the aircraft that could be (in the picture)? I don't see any matching text in that colour on the aircraft photos in the database.

Underside of the wing I would say, you can see it in https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/9014558

DL_Mech · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:04 am

Spetsnaz55 wrote:

Looks like a piece of lower wing panel to me

I agree. The oval openings are where the tank access plates are located.

ZKNCL · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:04 am

Can we perhaps not speculate on the media reaction if it was a MAX? It’s not a MAX and it looks to have crashed. People have potentially lost their lives here, families plunged into grief. There’s bigger things to be concerned about.

loalq · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:06 am

RIP to those poor souls.

Mentioning the MAX is unfortunately very relevant in this case - thats what the general public will be focusing on in the next days and I can already see this all over social media in Asia.

Mid-flight is not statistically the most common time for crashes so its brings memories of some of the most peculiar accidents…AF447, 4U9525, MH17…

chonetsao · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:08 am

My first suspicion upon reading the news is cargo fire. Maybe Lithium battery. I have this suspicion is due to the fire on Air China A330 in PEK airport while loading passengers and cargo not long ago. However, there is no confirmed report of fire onboard yet. So let us wait and see. Mechanical reason can not be rule out.

Also, this aircraft belongs to China Eastern Yunnan Airlines. It was Yunnan Airlines and merged into China Eastern decades ago. It is famous for an incident few years ago that the Yunnan Airlines pilots walked out from the duty by various means to protest against China Eastern. The key protest issue was that Yunnan wants to restore its own airline, in the background of China Eastern was loosing money while the Yunnan subsidiary was profitable. Another issue was Yunnan Airlines did not get any new aircrafts or widebody aircrafts as promised. Yunnan felt China Eastern was using their profit to feed the money loosing parent company while get nothing in return. Just some background information for those interested.

flybucky · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:12 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Aesma wrote:
My first guess is CFIT.

CFIT doesn't make sense given the FR24 data. Looks like a pretty steep descent straight from cruise altitude. Unless they were performing an emergency descent and forgot to stop.

Look at the speed. It stays constant through the early part of the descent.

Hmm, this is an interesting discussion. I didn't think of CFIT initially because the FR24 graph looked so steep. It was about 100 miles from its destination (it was around Wuzhou, destination Guangzhou), so I guess that would be the time to start the descent.

The FR24 graph is quite coarse, the 2 data points at the start of the descent are:

6:19:59, 457 kt, 29100 ft
6:22:16, 455 kt, 9075 ft

The delta is 2m17s (137s), -2 kt, -20025 ft. That would be a descent rate of -8770 fpm over that 2m17s, while speed was steady.

What could that indicate? The descent rate is too fast for a normal descent, right?

Natflyer · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:13 am

Aesma wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Aesma wrote:
My first guess is CFIT.

CFIT doesn't make sense given the FR24 data. Looks like a pretty steep descent straight from cruise altitude. Unless they were performing an emergency descent and forgot to stop.

I was only taking into account the smoothness of the descent, and figured they were landing and made a mistake putting terrain in their path.

However you're right that the descent is fast, and looks like an emergency one after a decompression. So maybe they were performing that with the autopilot, and lost consciousness. Was there a distress call ?

You are digging yourself a deeper hole. No it does not look like emergency descent.

Btblue · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:13 am

Looking at FR24, the flight profile looks normal. Then around 6.10, there's an increase in airspeed, then it returns back to normal (normal being the majority of the flight in cruise profile) the flight continues then there's some further slight airspeed changes at 6.14 right up to 6.25 when it appears to have descended rapidly.

https://twitter.com/nico83et13/status/1 ... dXejg&s=19

777 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:19 am

Unverified, quite impressive....

You can clearly hear a repeated noise, like a small explosion. Wondering what this may be.

https://twitter.com/Liuzxjack/status/15 ... FC9CbgEuKg

tigerzhong13 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:19 am

Aesma wrote:
My first guess is CFIT.

It's unlikely to be CFIT as the wing has disintegrated before landing according to alleged footage. There's no control.

Noshow · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:29 am

Possible crash video from Weibo:
https://twitter.com/aus_forum?ref_src=t ... st11203096

chonetsao · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:30 am

I found this article with some interesting graphic that may help others:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... China.html

One of the graphics is very interesting as below:

InnsbruckFlyer · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:38 am

777 wrote:
Unverified, quite impressive....

https://twitter.com/Liuzxjack/status/15 ... FC9CbgEuKg

Absolutely awful, RIP to those onboard. Could this be some kind of jackscrew or other mechanical failure?

mxaxai · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:40 am

flybucky wrote:
The delta is 2m17s (137s), -2 kt, -20025 ft. That would be a descent rate of -8770 fpm over that 2m17s, while speed was steady.

What could that indicate? The descent rate is too fast for a normal descent, right?

That rate appears to be possible for an emergency descent with speed brakes. The final reported rate of 30,000+ ft/min would be impossible, though, in controlled flight.

This theory should be fairly easy to verify by the authorities, since the crew would (usually...) announce their intention to descend to ATC. Such descents are usually reserved for specific circustances like decompression, which aren't that time-critical to prevent communications. In a fire, you'd try to go for a more shallow descent that minimizes flight time to the closest airport. For any other malfunction, it's usually safer to maintain altitude or drift down slowly until the initial troubleshooting is done.

Naincompetent · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:41 am

Looking at the falling timing, the fall looks like a free fall to me.
Only depends on mass, aerodynamic profile, height, initial speed and air density...
Doesn't seem to be any control whatsoever.
The lateral distance seems also consistent with a free fall hypothesis.
Regarding the smoothness of the profile, it seems to be a software smoothing based on a few data points, not a real smooth descent. There is no data point between 6.19.59 and 6.22.16

flybucky · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:45 am

Noshow wrote:
Possible crash video from Weibo:
https://twitter.com/aus_forum?ref_src=t ... st11203096

Here's a more direct link to the video: https://twitter.com/aus_forum/status/15 ... 0350782466
If that video is true, then the plane crashed at a 90º angle.

LTEN11 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:47 am

I'm going to stick my neck out here and say it's either terror related, or it's a disgruntled employee taking control and crashing it intentionally, possibly after an altercation with whatever security forces may have been onboard.

sierrakilo44 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:49 am

Noshow wrote:
Possible crash video from Weibo:
https://twitter.com/aus_forum?ref_src=t ... st11203096

It’s going down at a 90 degree angle. Totally vertical. The two MAX crashes with a runaway stabilizer trim only produced about a 45 degree angle, as did the Fly Dubai crash in Rostov in which the stab trim was mistakenly pitched down.

I hate to speculate but even a plane with both wings ripped off wouldn’t be heading straight down toward the ground, it would be tumbling. The only way I can think of a profile like that is an aircraft deliberately being put into that state.

aerobus12 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:52 am

Reminds me of Germanwings. Crash occured just before top of descent. I suspect one pilot gone to the toilet, the other pushes the plane into a nosedive.

flybucky · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:53 am

mxaxai wrote:

flybucky wrote:
The delta is 2m17s (137s), -2 kt, -20025 ft. That would be a descent rate of -8770 fpm over that 2m17s, while speed was steady.

What could that indicate? The descent rate is too fast for a normal descent, right?

That rate appears to be possible for an emergency descent with speed brakes. The final reported rate of 30,000+ ft/min would be impossible, though, in controlled flight.

Thanks. So a possible theory could be that it entered an emergency descent from 29,100 ft to 9,075 ft. Then something catastrophic happened at 9,075 ft, leading to a vertical crash (possible video).

Zaf · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:53 am

I have the bad feeling this crash was deliberate action by pilots or terrorists.

Naincompetent · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:56 am

Another one would be that something happened at 29kft and it started free falling
Very quick graph using the 4 available data points on Fr24

The end of the fall could be very close to vertical...

Senti69 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:58 am

Performing an emergency descent you wouldn’t be able to descend with 30,000 ft/m.

Speculative: fire onboard. This reminds me in some way of Swiss air flight 111 crash.

InnsbruckFlyer · Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:02 am

Pilot suicide does seem possible. Reminds me a bit of Silkair 185.

Metchalus · Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:03 am

Is anyone else seeing a similarity, to the Atlas Air crash. With the clouds and the steep decent?

889091 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:05 am

Silk Air repeat?

edit: InnsbruckFlyer beat me to it

WkndWanderer · Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:06 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Noshow wrote:
Possible crash video from Weibo:
https://twitter.com/aus_forum?ref_src=t ... st11203096

It’s going down at a 90 degree angle. Totally vertical. The two MAX crashes with a runaway stabilizer trim only produced about a 45 degree angle, as did the Fly Dubai crash in Rostov in which the stab trim was mistakenly pitched down.

I hate to speculate but even a plane with both wings ripped off wouldn’t be heading straight down toward the ground, it would be tumbling. The only way I can think of a profile like that is an aircraft deliberately being put into that state.

West Sweden 294, Valujet, there are other ways an accident aircraft can basically go straight to the ground without it being deliberate.

sierrakilo44 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:10 am

flybucky wrote:
Thanks. So a possible theory could be that it entered an emergency descent from 29,100 ft to 9,075 ft. Then something catastrophic happened at 9,075 ft, leading to a vertical crash (possible video).

Not with the video of the crash posted on Weibo showing it going down at 90 degrees.

An emergency descent is only about a 10 degree descent angle. If the aircraft had suffered a catastrophic loss like a wing or tail being ripped off then it tumbles like the Iranian Illyushin in the video below.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EpkmZGh-Le8

If the above video is real the only way to be forced into a direct 90 degree dive is absolutely deliberate action by whoever was behind the controls. Even bad handling or MCAS faults like the MAX incidents, Flt Dubai in Rostov or Atlas Air in Houston were all about a 40-45 degree descent angle.

On the other hand Silk Air 185 was a near vertical dive when the Captain pushed full nose down to the ground, Egyptair 990 was a near vertical dive to the point the second pilot came back to the flight deck and attempted to overpower the first officer.

Germanwings wasn’t a near vertical dive.

VeeCee · Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:15 am

Metchalus wrote:
Is anyone else seeing a similarity, to the Atlas Air crash. With the clouds and the steep decent?

That’s what I was thinking, but you could see Atlas Air try to pull out when it broke through clouds. I can’t see that here.

flybucky · Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:17 am

Senti69 wrote:
Performing an emergency descent you wouldn’t be able to descend with 30,000 ft/m.

-30,000 fpm was its final vertical speed (according to FR24). It didn't descend from 29,100 ft at -30,000 fpm.

When it started descending, it was -8770 fpm over 2m17s. See viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1471347#p23226369

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