smi0006 wrote:LAX772LR wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:'This time it's different' is a punch line to people who have studied economic history.
By that standard of thought, we would've stopped building jet aircraft every time a Comet crashed.
We've seen new-gen aircraft lessen hub-reliance for longhaul on at least three different occasions:
- In the '80s-'90s it was the 767/A330 over the Atlantic.
- In the '90s-'00s it was the 777/A340 over the Pacific.
- In the '10s it was the 787 doubling the work over both oceans, with routes like AUS/MSY/BNA finally receiving stable TATL service, and routes like Jinan/Kunming/Qingdao/Bengaluru getting TPAC.
Sure there've been setbacks in the form of recessions, pandemic outbreaks, war, etc.
But the trajectory has inerrantly and always resumed in the same direction: travel between any points, with 1 hub stop or less.
Having that record in mind, alongside decadal increases in fuel efficiency/conservation, leaves us with nearly zilch evidence to suggest that A350s won't have their turn, in the '20s, doing the same thing to the general market.
I’d also argue the Australian market is different globally - Australians are used to long distance travel, whether it is flying or driving - it’s a big country and we are far away from most of the planet. A 9hr SYD-MEL drive is short to us ( I struggle to get my UK mates to join me!), an 6hr flight to DPS from the east coast is short-haul. PS routes have strong social and economic connections, point of sale ex-AU will be strong. I can’t think of too many other markets with such dynamics. Will it be 8 times a day? No never, will it give QF a way to compete with ME3, and SQ on yield absolutely!
Yes, the Australian market is very different but you have to live here to fully appreciate it.
I lost count of the amount of times a.net wisdom said PER-LHR would never be profitable or never actually happen at all where as it makes total sense if you live in Perth and has gone on to be a money spinner for Qantas. But not everybody who visits Europe wants to go to London but would still like to avoid a ME flight change so, PER-FCO could also end up working long term if QF can work out some codeshares.