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anstar
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Wed May 04, 2022 9:27 am

astuteman wrote:
As far as I can tell, Jetstar have on firm order
45 x A320NEO
28 x A321XLR

Rgds

Thats for Jetstar Australia I believe. Not sure how many frames Jetstar Asia and Jetstar Japan are getting but I know Jetstar Japan get heir first A321neo shortly.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Wed May 04, 2022 10:38 am

JetStar (all subsidiaries) has a total of 45 A320neos and 64 A321neos (including XLRs) on order already. On Airbus’s orders and deliveries spreadsheet they are listed under Qantas, not any of the JetStar airlines-probably because the Qantas Group ordered them and who gets how many is probably always subject to change.
 
behramjee
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Wed May 04, 2022 12:45 pm

tullamarine wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
DCA350 wrote:

I fully expect more A350s to be ordered in a denser configuration, as A380 replacements. Maybe a 3 class similar to BAs, but they will still want to offer F to LAX among a few others, and a 787 might be too small.. So maybe another 4 class layout, but obviously less premium than PS..

I expect A380s at QF to be replaced by fragmentation:.
1. SYD and MEL to LHR and JFK
2. Add more flights to DFW (bypass LAX). For SYD 2x day to increase connection opportunities.
3. More SIN connections
4. Down-gauge to DXB.

There will be 4 class A35K to LAX, DXB, SIN, and probably some of Asia

Lightsaber


I don't think QF have any interest in flying to DXB using their own metal. There is very little O&D between Australia and DXB and connections are handled very well via EK partnership.


Don't know why you think p2p demand between DXB and Australia is very low as its quite respectable. Below stats are round trip p2p pax in 2019 (full year):

SYD 116,000
MEL 95,000
BNE 57,000
PER 45,000

As far as someone else wrote, yes the A321Neos will replace the B738s on domestic routes for sure down the road.

Now what I find interesting is that knowing how aggressive Airbus is for selling their wide body aircraft, the below scenario would not surprise me:

i. 14 B789s fully replaced down the road with A359s (including ULRs like the ones SQ operate). They could be either sold or transferred to JQ in a HD configuration.

ii. This will enable QF's entire mainline WB fleet 7-10 years down the road to revolve exclusively around the A350 family hence in turn resulting in substantial annual cost savings across the board.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Wed May 04, 2022 2:18 pm

Considering how sensible QF is when it comes to capex we’ll probably see something like this:

-A330 replaced by a mix of 787-8 from JQ and new 787-9
-A321XLR at JQ to replace 787-8
-A380-800 fleet eventually replaced by more sunrise routes. Either that or we’ll see a new subfleet of A350-1000 with a more balanced premium/non-premium cabin for places such as LAX, HND and SIN.

The part I’m still unsure about is the XLR for QF. Aside from PER-AKL I don’t see what route QF would use these on that couldn’t be done before. As others have pointed out, a lack of proper J would mean international expansion from BNE/MEL wouldn’t make sense either due to competition. Maybe they will have dedicated lie flats. I definitely could see ADL to SIN pop-up in that case.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Wed May 04, 2022 2:33 pm

qf789 wrote:
Qantas and Airbus will make an official announcement at 830am tomorrow that Project Sunrise will be going ahead. It is expected that Qantas is making a significant announcement about the future of its network which includes an announcement of the board giving the green light to order A350-1000ULR's.

Currently Airbus is positioning A350-1000 TLS-PER, presumably its going to PER as it will miss the curfew at SYD today. It is believed that the aircraft is wearing Qantas logos and is wearing the slogan "our Spirit flies further". Link to flight

https://www.flightradar24.com/26.12,50.99/8#

The first flights are expected to take off in mid 2025, with SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK to be the first flights to occur

https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... nrise-a350

Also as part of the announcement it is also expected that Qantas will firm order for its narrowbody fleet which includes A220 and A32XLRS. It is expected that 12 A350-1000's, 20 A220 and 20 A321XLR's to be order tomorrow along with 106 options.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... r-history/


Boeing certainly shot themselves in the foot (again) with the 787 production issues.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Wed May 04, 2022 2:35 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas and Airbus will make an official announcement at 830am tomorrow that Project Sunrise will be going ahead. It is expected that Qantas is making a significant announcement about the future of its network which includes an announcement of the board giving the green light to order A350-1000ULR's.

Currently Airbus is positioning A350-1000 TLS-PER, presumably its going to PER as it will miss the curfew at SYD today. It is believed that the aircraft is wearing Qantas logos and is wearing the slogan "our Spirit flies further". Link to flight

https://www.flightradar24.com/26.12,50.99/8#

The first flights are expected to take off in mid 2025, with SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK to be the first flights to occur

https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... nrise-a350

Also as part of the announcement it is also expected that Qantas will firm order for its narrowbody fleet which includes A220 and A32XLRS. It is expected that 12 A350-1000's, 20 A220 and 20 A321XLR's to be order tomorrow along with 106 options.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... r-history/


Boeing certainly shot themselves in the foot (again) with the 787 production issues.

The 787 was never in the running for this.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Wed May 04, 2022 2:39 pm

Polot wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas and Airbus will make an official announcement at 830am tomorrow that Project Sunrise will be going ahead. It is expected that Qantas is making a significant announcement about the future of its network which includes an announcement of the board giving the green light to order A350-1000ULR's.

Currently Airbus is positioning A350-1000 TLS-PER, presumably its going to PER as it will miss the curfew at SYD today. It is believed that the aircraft is wearing Qantas logos and is wearing the slogan "our Spirit flies further". Link to flight

https://www.flightradar24.com/26.12,50.99/8#

The first flights are expected to take off in mid 2025, with SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK to be the first flights to occur

https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... nrise-a350

Also as part of the announcement it is also expected that Qantas will firm order for its narrowbody fleet which includes A220 and A32XLRS. It is expected that 12 A350-1000's, 20 A220 and 20 A321XLR's to be order tomorrow along with 106 options.

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... r-history/


Boeing certainly shot themselves in the foot (again) with the 787 production issues.

The 787 was never in the running for this.


and I'm willing to bet they will order more 787s in the future.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Wed May 04, 2022 3:29 pm

I know QF recently announced DFW - MEL flights starting in Q4 '22.
Do they have enough 789's right now to add that route?
Or is that new route predicated on QF getting more 789's delivered this year?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 12:16 am

Don't know why you think p2p demand between DXB and Australia is very low as its quite respectable. Below stats are round trip p2p pax in 2019 (full year):

SYD 116,000
MEL 95,000
BNE 57,000
PER 45,000

P2P is quite low once you consider how much capacity EK has between AU and DXB. It is less than 20% and even then, that could be overstated, as those who stopover in DXB will be counted as P2P.

Now what I find interesting is that knowing how aggressive Airbus is for selling their wide body aircraft, the below scenario would not surprise me:

i. 14 B789s fully replaced down the road with A359s (including ULRs like the ones SQ operate). They could be either sold or transferred to JQ in a HD configuration.

Probably unlikely. QF is still sitting on some very attractively priced purchase rights for the 789 which probably mean Boeing actually sells these planes to QF at a loss. It is unlikely Airbus could match or would want to match this pricing.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 12:34 am

Sooner787 wrote:
I know QF recently announced DFW - MEL flights starting in Q4 '22.
Do they have enough 789's right now to add that route?
Or is that new route predicated on QF getting more 789's delivered this year?
Boeing has three ready to go in Qantas colours that will be delivered by the end of the calendar year, possibly one with a special paint job

As above Qantas still has lots of cheap 787 options, and keeps its planes for longer than most (part driven by Aus tax laws), so the Boeing's will still be around into the late 2030s at least.

In terms of what's being replaced you've got to look at the age of the Qantas fleet.

1999-2005 20 717s NX*, YQ*
2002-2003 21 737s VX* (ex-AA post 9/11)
2002-2003 4 332s EBA-EBD (Dom only no IFE)
2003-2005 10 333s QP*
2004-2006 11 737s VY*
2008 5 737s VZA-VZE (last of the no IFE 737s)
2007-2008 4 332s EBG-EBL (Dom only no IFE)

So the new order of 20 220s and 20 321s is more a 1:1 swap of the earliest 717 and 737s. Possibly some of the younger 717s stay for a bit longer and 332s also get replaced.

Obviously more 321s will be ordered in future years for the remaining 737s.

But the next big fleet decision will be the 333 replacement.
I see this as either being 788s back from JQ (if the 321LR and XLR work for JQ) or additional 789s.
 
anstar
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 2:07 am

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

The part I’m still unsure about is the XLR for QF. Aside from PER-AKL I don’t see what route QF would use these on that couldn’t be done before. As others have pointed out, a lack of proper J would mean international expansion from BNE/MEL wouldn’t make sense either due to competition. Maybe they will have dedicated lie flats. I definitely could see ADL to SIN pop-up in that case.


MEL/BNE to BKK, CNS-SIN, MEL-NAN, SYD/BNE-MNL, SYD-CGK, CNS-HKG, ADL-HKG... Quite a few routes they could open.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 2:22 am

anstar wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

The part I’m still unsure about is the XLR for QF. Aside from PER-AKL I don’t see what route QF would use these on that couldn’t be done before. As others have pointed out, a lack of proper J would mean international expansion from BNE/MEL wouldn’t make sense either due to competition. Maybe they will have dedicated lie flats. I definitely could see ADL to SIN pop-up in that case.


MEL/BNE to BKK, CNS-SIN, MEL-NAN, SYD/BNE-MNL, SYD-CGK, CNS-HKG, ADL-HKG... Quite a few routes they could open.


Some of those routes are already possible with the 738s such as MEL-NAN or CNS-SIN. SYD-CGK already exists but I agree it could go daily if it went down from an A332 to A321XLR.. Whilst MEL-BKK and ADL-HKG are possible, it once again throws up the issue as to whether an A321, particularly if there is no int'l configuration, will be seen as competitive wingtip flying against a TG or CX A359.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 4:27 am

tullamarine wrote:
Some of those routes are already possible with the 738s such as MEL-NAN or CNS-SIN. SYD-CGK already exists but I agree it could go daily if it went down from an A332 to A321XLR.. Whilst MEL-BKK and ADL-HKG are possible, it once again throws up the issue as to whether an A321, particularly if there is no int'l configuration, will be seen as competitive wingtip flying against a TG or CX A359.


There is a difference between being technically able to do a route and being able to do a route profitability.

The 77L/A345 could have technically flown SYD -LHR for years now.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 9:26 am

zeke wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Some of those routes are already possible with the 738s such as MEL-NAN or CNS-SIN. SYD-CGK already exists but I agree it could go daily if it went down from an A332 to A321XLR.. Whilst MEL-BKK and ADL-HKG are possible, it once again throws up the issue as to whether an A321, particularly if there is no int'l configuration, will be seen as competitive wingtip flying against a TG or CX A359.


There is a difference between being technically able to do a route and being able to do a route profitability.

The 77L/A345 could have technically flown SYD -LHR for years now.

MEL-NAN has been successfully flown by VA and FJ with 738s since about 2008, FJ have now upgraded to a MAX bur VA are still using its738s. SQ flew SIN-CNS using Silkair 738s for a number of years.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 10:15 am

moa999 wrote:
I see this as either being 788s back from JQ (if the 321LR and XLR work for JQ) or additional 789s.


Pretty sure the 788s were delivered new to and entered service with JQ. Likely the 788s will either be transferred to QF mainline, or sold if there is no use for them in the QF mainline fleet and/or better offers out there.
 
LTEN11
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 10:31 am

SCFlyer wrote:
moa999 wrote:
I see this as either being 788s back from JQ (if the 321LR and XLR work for JQ) or additional 789s.


Pretty sure the 788s were delivered new to and entered service with JQ. Likely the 788s will either be transferred to QF mainline, or sold if there is no use for them in the QF mainline fleet and/or better offers out there.


Still think it's premature to say the 788 has no place at JQ after they start taking the 321LR/XLR.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 10:39 am

LTEN11 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
moa999 wrote:
I see this as either being 788s back from JQ (if the 321LR and XLR work for JQ) or additional 789s.


Pretty sure the 788s were delivered new to and entered service with JQ. Likely the 788s will either be transferred to QF mainline, or sold if there is no use for them in the QF mainline fleet and/or better offers out there.


Still think it's premature to say the 788 has no place at JQ after they start taking the 321LR/XLR.


Other than HNL what role do they serve that the XLR can’t? While HNL is a solid market for them, it seems awfully inefficient to keep around a relatively niche and high cost fleet just to serve one market. The A321XLR can cover the rest of the network for lower operating cost, and allows them to remove a (relatively high cost) pilot group.

Jetstar never needed as many 787s as they have, and were talking about disposing of two of them prior to Covid. They tried all sorts of routes, the most bizarre being Zhengzhou, but have never really grown beyond their core markets of DPS, HNL and QLD-NRT/KIX. Their current solution appears to be abusing them on OOL and CNS runs.
 
LTEN11
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 11:13 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:

Pretty sure the 788s were delivered new to and entered service with JQ. Likely the 788s will either be transferred to QF mainline, or sold if there is no use for them in the QF mainline fleet and/or better offers out there.


Still think it's premature to say the 788 has no place at JQ after they start taking the 321LR/XLR.


Other than HNL what role do they serve that the XLR can’t? While HNL is a solid market for them, it seems awfully inefficient to keep around a relatively niche and high cost fleet just to serve one market. The A321XLR can cover the rest of the network for lower operating cost, and allows them to remove a (relatively high cost) pilot group.

Jetstar never needed as many 787s as they have, and were talking about disposing of two of them prior to Covid. They tried all sorts of routes, the most bizarre being Zhengzhou, but have never really grown beyond their core markets of DPS, HNL and QLD-NRT/KIX. Their current solution appears to be abusing them on OOL and CNS runs.


Besides the MEL domestic ops, they're back to HNL/HKT/SGN/SIN/DPS, doing freight runs to NRT and will be doing the runs to SEL when they commence, so they aren't exactly sitting around gathering dust. The high cost niche fleet is part of the larger fleet with QF, so there are economies of scale there. Whilst I don't know how much the tech crew get paid at JQ, it's going to less than QF, whilst no doubt more than the 320 tech crews, it won't be the deciding factor in getting rid of them. Anyway, they'll still be around for years and as with the LR/XLR's who knows where they'll end up.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 11:25 am

Heavierthanair wrote:
880dc8707 wrote:
Not only SYD-LHR any 350 like SAS EWR-CPH (my current problem. In plus , has AB seats and now schd change has us in CD I dont like it.


I hate to spoil a party, but this being an English language forum can you please provide us with a translation? thanks


I think they are saying they were in PEY, AB seats would be the window seats, CD seats would be in the middle
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 11:26 am

tullamarine wrote:
MEL-NAN has been successfully flown by VA and FJ with 738s since about 2008, FJ have now upgraded to a MAX bur VA are still using its738s. SQ flew SIN-CNS using Silkair 738s for a number of years.


I believe 3K/JQ also flew SIN-CNS, that where Silk got the idea.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 11:27 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Pretty sure the 788s were delivered new to and entered service with JQ. Likely the 788s will either be transferred to QF mainline, or sold if there is no use for them in the QF mainline fleet and/or better offers out there.


Pretty sure the JQ 787s didnt have crew rests in them when delivered.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 11:32 am

Where I was surprised was Jetstar not trying harder with the 788s out of SIN (albeit possibly some constraints given 3K ownership)
They tried SIN-AKL for a little while (think using TT rights and Aus AOC).

But Singapore owned Scoot got up to almost 20 787s (combo of 788 and 789)
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 11:40 am

zeke wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Pretty sure the 788s were delivered new to and entered service with JQ. Likely the 788s will either be transferred to QF mainline, or sold if there is no use for them in the QF mainline fleet and/or better offers out there.


Pretty sure the JQ 787s didnt have crew rests in them when delivered.

As any transfer to QF would probably be to replace older A330s which also lack crew rests that probably doesn’t matter much.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 11:47 am

moa999 wrote:
Where I was surprised was Jetstar not trying harder with the 788s out of SIN (albeit possibly some constraints given 3K ownership)
They tried SIN-AKL for a little while (think using TT rights and Aus AOC).

But Singapore owned Scoot got up to almost 20 787s (combo of 788 and 789)


SIN-AKL was an A330, 3K operated iirc? Started daily but reduced to 3 weekly fairly quickly before being cut, started in March 2011 iirc lasted till late 2013 early 2014 iirc.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 11:49 am

Polot wrote:
zeke wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Pretty sure the 788s were delivered new to and entered service with JQ. Likely the 788s will either be transferred to QF mainline, or sold if there is no use for them in the QF mainline fleet and/or better offers out there.


Pretty sure the JQ 787s didnt have crew rests in them when delivered.

As any transfer to QF would probably be to replace older A330s which also lack crew rests that probably doesn’t matter much.


Possibly but QF do need aircraft with range, the 788s could be ideal for BNE-US possibly which uses an A332 without a crew rest.
 
a320fan
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 12:56 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Where I was surprised was Jetstar not trying harder with the 788s out of SIN (albeit possibly some constraints given 3K ownership)
They tried SIN-AKL for a little while (think using TT rights and Aus AOC).

But Singapore owned Scoot got up to almost 20 787s (combo of 788 and 789)


SIN-AKL was an A330, 3K operated iirc? Started daily but reduced to 3 weekly fairly quickly before being cut, started in March 2011 iirc lasted till late 2013 early 2014 iirc.

They also did SIN-PEK with the 330 under a similar arrangement with 3K.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 8:55 pm

LTEN11 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:

Still think it's premature to say the 788 has no place at JQ after they start taking the 321LR/XLR.


Other than HNL what role do they serve that the XLR can’t? While HNL is a solid market for them, it seems awfully inefficient to keep around a relatively niche and high cost fleet just to serve one market. The A321XLR can cover the rest of the network for lower operating cost, and allows them to remove a (relatively high cost) pilot group.

Jetstar never needed as many 787s as they have, and were talking about disposing of two of them prior to Covid. They tried all sorts of routes, the most bizarre being Zhengzhou, but have never really grown beyond their core markets of DPS, HNL and QLD-NRT/KIX. Their current solution appears to be abusing them on OOL and CNS runs.


Besides the MEL domestic ops, they're back to HNL/HKT/SGN/SIN/DPS, doing freight runs to NRT and will be doing the runs to SEL when they commence, so they aren't exactly sitting around gathering dust. The high cost niche fleet is part of the larger fleet with QF, so there are economies of scale there. Whilst I don't know how much the tech crew get paid at JQ, it's going to less than QF, whilst no doubt more than the 320 tech crews, it won't be the deciding factor in getting rid of them. Anyway, they'll still be around for years and as with the LR/XLR's who knows where they'll end up.


That doesn’t answer the question of what do they bring to Jetstar? Of course they’re flying internationally, I was referring to the excess frames they didn’t want, but almost their entire network can be flown by the XLR at lower cost. Being part of the larger Qantas Group fleet isn’t particularly relevant when Jetstar are responsible for their own maintenance, there’s not really any economies of scale there. Where the group does act as one is freight, and SGN in particular probably carries quite a bit of cargo. Nonetheless, I personally can’t see how they are delivering such great returns at Jetstar that group-wide ROIC would be higher by keeping them there and buying new 787s to replace the A330s at Qantas.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 9:02 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Polot wrote:
zeke wrote:

Pretty sure the JQ 787s didnt have crew rests in them when delivered.

As any transfer to QF would probably be to replace older A330s which also lack crew rests that probably doesn’t matter much.


Possibly but QF do need aircraft with range, the 788s could be ideal for BNE-US possibly which uses an A332 without a crew rest.


As appalled as I am, BNE-LAX (coming in under 14 hours) doesn’t require crew rest so they could continue to use the 788s there.

They could presumably do the same with SYD-SCL. I’m not aware of them seeking EDTO >180 for the A330s, but that could be a hypothetical 788 route if they do end up with Qantas.

Overall, though, the 3 additional 789s (in addition to likely future orders) will largely negate the need to fly A330s on these routes. In addition, once Hong Kong and China open up then Qantas will want to put more A330 capacity back into Asia.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 9:25 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
As appalled as I am, BNE-LAX (coming in under 14 hours) doesn’t require crew rest so they could continue to use the 788s there.

They could presumably do the same with SYD-SCL. I’m not aware of them seeking EDTO >180 for the A330s, but that could be a hypothetical 788 route if they do end up with Qantas.

Overall, though, the 3 additional 789s (in addition to likely future orders) will largely negate the need to fly A330s on these routes. In addition, once Hong Kong and China open up then Qantas will want to put more A330 capacity back into Asia.


Pretty sure it would require crew rest, just not necessarily a dedicated bunk facility.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 9:53 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
moa999 wrote:
I see this as either being 788s back from JQ (if the 321LR and XLR work for JQ) or additional 789s.


Pretty sure the 788s were delivered new to and entered service with JQ. Likely the 788s will either be transferred to QF mainline, or sold if there is no use for them in the QF mainline fleet and/or better offers out there.

They will have to be used within the QF Group no matter what, unless QF are prepared to take a significant loss. 788s are not in demand at all so would struggle to find a buyer.
 
Cardude2
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 9:54 pm

tullamarine wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
moa999 wrote:
I see this as either being 788s back from JQ (if the 321LR and XLR work for JQ) or additional 789s.


Pretty sure the 788s were delivered new to and entered service with JQ. Likely the 788s will either be transferred to QF mainline, or sold if there is no use for them in the QF mainline fleet and/or better offers out there.

They will have to be used within the QF Group no matter what, unless QF are prepared to take a significant loss. 788s are not in demand at all so would struggle to find a buyer.


the only possible buyer for them is UA for 763 replacement as UA needs GE ones (which are hard to come buy)
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 10:11 pm

zeke wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
As appalled as I am, BNE-LAX (coming in under 14 hours) doesn’t require crew rest so they could continue to use the 788s there.

They could presumably do the same with SYD-SCL. I’m not aware of them seeking EDTO >180 for the A330s, but that could be a hypothetical 788 route if they do end up with Qantas.

Overall, though, the 3 additional 789s (in addition to likely future orders) will largely negate the need to fly A330s on these routes. In addition, once Hong Kong and China open up then Qantas will want to put more A330 capacity back into Asia.


Pretty sure it would require crew rest, just not necessarily a dedicated bunk facility.


I think some of the 330s have tech crew rest behind the flight deck before the forward galley. Just no cabin crew rest. Not sure if these are used to LAX, where as 788 doesn’t even have tech crew rest is that right?
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 10:37 pm

smi0006 wrote:

I think some of the 330s have tech crew rest behind the flight deck before the forward galley. Just no cabin crew rest. Not sure if these are used to LAX, where as 788 doesn’t even have tech crew rest is that right?


My understanding is they were delivered without the forward and aft crew rests in the crown, that does not mean they could not have been installed post delivery. SQ also did not install crew rests from what I understand on their 787s.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Thu May 05, 2022 11:23 pm

zeke wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
As appalled as I am, BNE-LAX (coming in under 14 hours) doesn’t require crew rest so they could continue to use the 788s there.

They could presumably do the same with SYD-SCL. I’m not aware of them seeking EDTO >180 for the A330s, but that could be a hypothetical 788 route if they do end up with Qantas.

Overall, though, the 3 additional 789s (in addition to likely future orders) will largely negate the need to fly A330s on these routes. In addition, once Hong Kong and China open up then Qantas will want to put more A330 capacity back into Asia.


Pretty sure it would require crew rest, just not necessarily a dedicated bunk facility.


True, I meant dedicated bunks. Assuming they install lie flat business class, they could put a curtain around one J seat for tech crew, and a couple of rows of economy for flight attendants.
 
anstar
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sat May 07, 2022 8:02 am

tullamarine wrote:
anstar wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

The part I’m still unsure about is the XLR for QF. Aside from PER-AKL I don’t see what route QF would use these on that couldn’t be done before. As others have pointed out, a lack of proper J would mean international expansion from BNE/MEL wouldn’t make sense either due to competition. Maybe they will have dedicated lie flats. I definitely could see ADL to SIN pop-up in that case.


MEL/BNE to BKK, CNS-SIN, MEL-NAN, SYD/BNE-MNL, SYD-CGK, CNS-HKG, ADL-HKG... Quite a few routes they could open.


Some of those routes are already possible with the 738s such as MEL-NAN or CNS-SIN. SYD-CGK already exists but I agree it could go daily if it went down from an A332 to A321XLR.. Whilst MEL-BKK and ADL-HKG are possible, it once again throws up the issue as to whether an A321, particularly if there is no int'l configuration, will be seen as competitive wingtip flying against a TG or CX A359.


You're right MEL-NAN etc are currently done with 738s however the A321neo can do it with a full load of 230 odd pax where as the 737 is weight restricted to around 120 pax. Even SYD-NAN is weight restricted so a 321 can improve economics on that route too.

LTEN11 wrote:

Still think it's premature to say the 788 has no place at JQ after they start taking the 321LR/XLR.


Agreed. If it was the beginning of the end for the 787 at JQ why would they be announcing new routes like SYD-ICN that start after the neos start arriving, (Assuming neso go to DPS ops).

smi0006 wrote:

I think some of the 330s have tech crew rest behind the flight deck before the forward galley. Just no cabin crew rest. Not sure if these are used to LAX, where as 788 doesn’t even have tech crew rest is that right?


No crew rest bunks on the JQ 787s either for Cabin or Flight Crews.
 
Breathe
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sat May 07, 2022 1:05 pm

TheLion wrote:
Fantastic news. I hope to someday utilise the service.

If it’s successful and helps grow traffic, perhaps even BA might consider a similar route eventually. Maybe…

I doubt it. It's a very niche service and they already codeshare with Qantas as a OneWorld partner, so it's more likely to have a codeshare with Project Sunrise flights to London to feed into the LHR based BA flights.
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sat May 07, 2022 9:52 pm

Breathe wrote:
TheLion wrote:
Fantastic news. I hope to someday utilise the service.

If it’s successful and helps grow traffic, perhaps even BA might consider a similar route eventually. Maybe…

I doubt it. It's a very niche service and they already codeshare with Qantas as a OneWorld partner, so it's more likely to have a codeshare with Project Sunrise flights to London to feed into the LHR based BA flights.


I'd be surprised BA would codeshare on the Project Sunrise flights as they don't codeshare on the existing Kangaroo route flights now. That was dropped many years ago when QF struck a deal with Emirates.

Both airlines do have some codeshare on domestic / short haul international flights but that's as far as it goes.

As an example, I used to fly LHR to EDI alot and QF used to have their code on the majority of the BA flights between these two city pairs which was close to 6/7 flights a day. Now you're lucky if there's 2 flights a day with the QF code
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 5:00 am

"Qantas promises Perth the stunning A350-1000 on nonstop to London"

https://thewest.com.au/travel/qantas-promises-perth-the-stunning-a350-1000-on-non-stop-to-london--c-6657642

From 2026 which keen observers will note is after the SYD-LHR starts in 2025 so no, Perth to London Heathrow is not going to be discontinued once the Sydney rotation starts. Obviously this will not put this a.net fantasy to bed but at least we now have a handy reference to rebut it.
 
a320fan
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 5:11 am

BoeingVista wrote:
"Qantas promises Perth the stunning A350-1000 on nonstop to London"

https://thewest.com.au/travel/qantas-promises-perth-the-stunning-a350-1000-on-non-stop-to-london--c-6657642

From 2026 which keen observers will note is after the SYD-LHR starts in 2025 so no, Perth to London Heathrow is not going to be discontinued once the Sydney rotation starts. Obviously this will not put this a.net fantasy to bed but at least we now have a handy reference to rebut it.

Geoffrey Thomas the author is not a credible source and believes the world revolves around PER and QF. I think PER-LHR will stay, but I’d be surprised if it goes 35K, I think the 789 will still have the superior pax mix for that market.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 5:22 am

a320fan wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
"Qantas promises Perth the stunning A350-1000 on nonstop to London"

https://thewest.com.au/travel/qantas-promises-perth-the-stunning-a350-1000-on-non-stop-to-london--c-6657642

From 2026 which keen observers will note is after the SYD-LHR starts in 2025 so no, Perth to London Heathrow is not going to be discontinued once the Sydney rotation starts. Obviously this will not put this a.net fantasy to bed but at least we now have a handy reference to rebut it.

Geoffrey Thomas the author is not a credible source and believes the world revolves around PER and QF. I think PER-LHR will stay, but I’d be surprised if it goes 35K, I think the 789 will still have the superior pax mix for that market.


Did you bother reading the article? He says that its a commitment made by Joyce to his publication, so you are calling either him, Joyce or both of them liars.

Edit: I love it when a.netters introduce their own opinion as being on the same level of credibility as actual airline CEO's.
 
a320fan
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 6:15 am

BoeingVista wrote:
a320fan wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
"Qantas promises Perth the stunning A350-1000 on nonstop to London"

https://thewest.com.au/travel/qantas-promises-perth-the-stunning-a350-1000-on-non-stop-to-london--c-6657642

From 2026 which keen observers will note is after the SYD-LHR starts in 2025 so no, Perth to London Heathrow is not going to be discontinued once the Sydney rotation starts. Obviously this will not put this a.net fantasy to bed but at least we now have a handy reference to rebut it.

Geoffrey Thomas the author is not a credible source and believes the world revolves around PER and QF. I think PER-LHR will stay, but I’d be surprised if it goes 35K, I think the 789 will still have the superior pax mix for that market.


Did you bother reading the article? He says that its a commitment made by Joyce to his publication, so you are calling either him, Joyce or both of them liars.

Edit: I love it when a.netters introduce their own opinion as being on the same level of credibility as actual airline CEO's.


You clearly haven’t spent much time among Australian aviation journalism. Joyce has a long history of implying fantastical tidbits to Thomas, who then runs with them and spends another year spruiking the greatness of QF and it’s grand future in his publications.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 6:33 am

a320fan wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
a320fan wrote:
Geoffrey Thomas the author is not a credible source and believes the world revolves around PER and QF. I think PER-LHR will stay, but I’d be surprised if it goes 35K, I think the 789 will still have the superior pax mix for that market.


Did you bother reading the article? He says that its a commitment made by Joyce to his publication, so you are calling either him, Joyce or both of them liars.

Edit: I love it when a.netters introduce their own opinion as being on the same level of credibility as actual airline CEO's.


You clearly haven’t spent much time among Australian aviation journalism. Joyce has a long history of implying fantastical tidbits to Thomas, who then runs with them and spends another year spruiking the greatness of QF and it’s grand future in his publications.


What, like non stop PER-LHR flights because that will never happen ,right? :roll:
 
qf002
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 7:25 am

I think an A35K on PER-LHR is quite feasible - there is plenty of wealth in the west, and Perth is a significantly more Euro-centric city than the eastern capitals. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see PER-LHR follow SYD-LHR/JFK as the third PS route ahead of MEL-LHR, purely to free up 789 capacity for other parts of the network.

With 12x aircraft, I am expecting:

SYD/MEL/PER-LHR (6)
SYD-JFK 5-7wk (2)
MEL-JFK 3wk (1)
SYD-ORD 3-5wk (1.5)
+ 1.5 spares
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 7:47 am

It's certainly feasible, but it's a bit of a waste when a 787 will do.
How much more money would you make on another uncontested direct route, versus 6 First seats from Perth.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 9:31 am

BoeingVista wrote:
a320fan wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:

Did you bother reading the article? He says that its a commitment made by Joyce to his publication, so you are calling either him, Joyce or both of them liars.

Edit: I love it when a.netters introduce their own opinion as being on the same level of credibility as actual airline CEO's.


You clearly haven’t spent much time among Australian aviation journalism. Joyce has a long history of implying fantastical tidbits to Thomas, who then runs with them and spends another year spruiking the greatness of QF and it’s grand future in his publications.


What, like non stop PER-LHR flights because that will never happen ,right? :roll:


For the record I have consistently said that PER-LHR will remain, but a word of advice: if Geoffrey Thomas is the only source then you should assume it’s wrong. He makes things up, cites himself as a source if he can’t find a better one (“a prominent Perth based aviation analyst agreed” … I kid you not, I have read this in one of his articles), and is very loose with the truth. Joyce probably said the Perth would continue (which they have said consistently since 2018) and when asked whether it was possible for the A350 to fly PER-LHR, agreed that it was possible. That becomes Qantas guarantees A350 for Perth-London. Geoffrey Thomas is not a credible source unless Qantas have put out a press release.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 11:32 am

qf002 wrote:
I think an A35K on PER-LHR is quite feasible - there is plenty of wealth in the west, and Perth is a significantly more Euro-centric city than the eastern capitals. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see PER-LHR follow SYD-LHR/JFK as the third PS route ahead of MEL-LHR, purely to free up 789 capacity for other parts of the network.

With 12x aircraft, I am expecting:

SYD/MEL/PER-LHR (6)
SYD-JFK 5-7wk (2)
MEL-JFK 3wk (1)
SYD-ORD 3-5wk (1.5)
+ 1.5 spares

Given the flight length, turn around time, QF's LHR slot times & SYD curfew I doubt that two aircraft will be enough for daily service. The current [pre COVID] via SIN one stop services required 5.5 for SYD/MEL-LHR & that could be a problem at times. Until we see the actual times published we really can't make definite predictions on number of frames, QF, of course, can but AFAIK such details have not been released.

Gemuser
 
qf002
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 12:46 pm

Gemuser wrote:
Given the flight length, turn around time, QF's LHR slot times & SYD curfew I doubt that two aircraft will be enough for daily service. The current [pre COVID] via SIN one stop services required 5.5 for SYD/MEL-LHR & that could be a problem at times. Until we see the actual times published we really can't make definite predictions on number of frames, QF, of course, can but AFAIK such details have not been released.


Yes, obviously it will come down to final schedules (which we are over 2 years away from seeing) but QF has demonstrated that they are focused on maximising utilisation and with 20hr block time you can comfortably run this schedule with 2x aircraft (Mar-Oct timings):

Depart SYD 1900, arr LHR 0600+1
Depart LHR 1000, arr SYD 1500+1

The benefit of the nonstop is that you have your plane in the air for 20hr a day and only need one block of time on the ground in each 24hr period. There will also be opportunities to dovetail into schedules across the Pacific where block times will be a little shorter.
 
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 2:05 pm

moa999 wrote:
It's certainly feasible, but it's a bit of a waste when a 787 will do.
How much more money would you make on another uncontested direct route, versus 6 First seats from Perth.


Its not just about first class, its about an overall increase in premium seats, A350 configuration is 6F52J40W140Y versus the 787-9 with 42J28W166Y. Previously Alan Joyce has commented multiple times that premium seats have extremely high load factors on PER-LHR. On top of that operating the A350-1000 would allow a full load go out year round, previously during the Northern Winter there have been times when seats have been blocked, plus also allow the flight to take cargo. From March 2018 to February 2020 PER-LHR carried 18.2 tonnes of cargo versus 1413 tonnes carried on LHR-PER as per BITRE. Operating with the A350-1000 would also add additional revenue to QF's coffers regarding cargo.

The increase in premium seats would bring in extra revenue to argue the case to use the A350-1000 versus the 787-9. As also noted by qf002 replacing PER-LHR with the A350-1000 would allow 787-9's to be used elsewhere like opening another European route such as CDG or FRA or allow another SYD/MEL/BNE - US route

Now looking at current prices on PER-LHR (return flights). If QF is charging what is listed below there is an argument to have that increasing premium seats would be beneficial to the airline

July 2022
Business $13,600 - $16,200
Premium Economy $9135 - $9936
Economy $3606 - $4785

December 2022
Business $8209 - $9889
Premium Economy $6166 - $7175
Economy $1859 - $2684

First Class which is offered as PER-SIN-LHR is $16,500 return.
 
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 4:07 pm

In addition to all the benefits (QF789), having A350s on PERLHR would mean only needing one type of aircrew and maintenance requirements. It would also give more flexibility in case of delays.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Qantas/Airbus to launch Project Sunrise and firm narrowbody order tomorrow (2 May 22)

Sun May 08, 2022 11:38 pm

Does anyone have the images that show where PER-LHR pax are coming from? My googling is letting me down today.

Id say safe to assume that the SYD and MEL traffic would jump on their own direct services, and if that makes the 789 marginal, taking the A350 there might be a little problematic.
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