Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
LongLayover
Topic Author
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:15 pm

What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 4:31 am

What will happen to routes like DFW-ACT/ABI/SPS, ATL-ABY/BQK/GTR, and ORD-BMI/CMI/SPI? Will they just reduce frequency and put CR7s on those routes?
 
UALFAson
Posts: 1244
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 2:41 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 4:44 am

Depends on the route. There are several possibilities, all of which we have seen airlines do over the past couple of years. They include, but are not limited to:

--simply eliminating service altogether
--upgauging to a larger RJ but perhaps reducing frequency
--contracting with a bus company to provide motorcoach service

I think eliminating service is the most likely. People in these smaller towns are just going to have to get used to driving 1-2 hours to a larger city instead of flying to a hub via a connection.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 6284
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 6:41 am

UALFAson wrote:
Depends on the route. There are several possibilities, all of which we have seen airlines do over the past couple of years. They include, but are not limited to:

--simply eliminating service altogether
--upgauging to a larger RJ but perhaps reducing frequency
--contracting with a bus company to provide motorcoach service

I think eliminating service is the most likely. People in these smaller towns are just going to have to get used to driving 1-2 hours to a larger city instead of flying to a hub via a connection.
triangle or multi stop routings is another option
 
Noshow
Posts: 3401
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 6:57 am

Wouldn't this be the very market where all those overhyped battery aircraft would be used for? On the other hand we might see more point to point flying weakening the traditional hub shuttles, say A220, A321XLR and such.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11307
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 11:29 am

LongLayover wrote:
What will happen to routes like DFW-ACT/ABI/SPS, ATL-ABY/BQK/GTR, and ORD-BMI/CMI/SPI? Will they just reduce frequency and put CR7s on those routes?


It's not the length of a route that determines whether it maintains service/frequency, it's demand, expressed in both passenger count and average fares. Demand will also be a function of nearby airports (say, less than 90 minutes drive) and the n/s destinations and frequencies they offer.

IMHO, we're going to see lots of routes dropped, and some cities losing service entirely. See IPT (Williamsport, PA), with a brand new terminal and no service.

I'm less enthusiastic about bus service but there haven't been many examples in the U.S. in the current era to cite as evidence either way.

I think driving to a hub is going to wind up as the most frequent alternative. There are a few cities in the U.S. built densely enough, with enough public transit, such that even people of median to upper income chose to live without a car. But not many: New York, San Francisco, Boston... Most Americans, if they can afford to fly, they own a car, and that's very frequently going to be the case at outlying airports such as named by the OP. IMHO, the primary air travel from Toledo isn't going to be an electric aircraft to ORD, it's going to be driving 50 miles to DTW where one can catch n/s flights to 100+ destinations daily.

If you find a situation where you have two low-volume airports fifty miles apart but no hub within reasonable driving distance it's going to be ugly. Airport consolidation would be a practical approach but in the U.S. virtually all airports with scheduled passenger service are locally owned (city or county), and those entities won't want to give up air service. States - with some urgency - ought to be developing legislation to create a process and provide transition subsidies to encourage consolidation. In the absence they could be facing a complete loss of service at both airports.
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 2345
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 11:57 am

This is a trend that has been occurring since railways began almost 200 years ago... namely that smaller towns become increasingly marginalised and people gradually move to the big cities.
 
cloudboy
Posts: 1197
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2004 12:38 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 12:29 pm

Buses already exist, and for the most part have failed in the US, so I do not see that really being a likely solution. As for driving, if you are going to drive 3 hours, then you are also going to drive 5 hours. Yes, I see there being some more driving, but as auto makers move to EVs, which make those kinds of journeys more difficult, I don't see that being a major alternative either.

I think you will find fewer hubs, and possible partnering with smaller airlines that have lower costs and can partner with more than one major servicing smaller routes. But I also think, long run, oil prices will drop as the rest of the world moves to electric vehicles and such, so it may be more profitable to fly a larger jet less frequently.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2606
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 1:30 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
LongLayover wrote:
What will happen to routes like DFW-ACT/ABI/SPS, ATL-ABY/BQK/GTR, and ORD-BMI/CMI/SPI? Will they just reduce frequency and put CR7s on those routes?



It's not the length of a route that determines whether it maintains service/frequency, it's demand, expressed in both passenger count and average fares.


Well, route length does matter in an indirect way as it impacts crew duty time, need for ground crew to turn those ~45 minute flights, landing fees, and just in the fact that planes are more efficient in cruise, all of which hammer you on costs relative to use of the same resources on longer legs. Now obviously if there's enough demand at high enough fares to cover those proportionately elevated costs, there will still be service, but a lot of things about the current environment dramatically raise that cost floor in a way that demand is unlikely to keep up with. I do agree with you on your conclusions, of course.

davidjohnson6 wrote:
This is a trend that has been occurring since railways began almost 200 years ago... namely that smaller towns become increasingly marginalised and people gradually move to the big cities.


Well, what you say is true but it's rather inapplicable here. We're not talking about populations moving, and we're not talking only about postage-stamp towns here. Abilene is in the list above and has a population of 125,000, for example. All three of those Texas cities are comfortably over 100k.
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 3976
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 1:43 pm

The market abhors a vacuum. Its how SWA grew so fast flying to secondary airports that every thought was "dead". Someone will develop a new business plan to serve those airports. May not be daily service or on aircraft larger than 50 seats but someone will fill the vacuum.

Example, no one for saw Allegiant's business plan working.
 
avier
Posts: 1404
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 1:47 pm

The millionth time such a topic is coming on a.net :|
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11307
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 1:52 pm

IADCA wrote:
Well, route length does matter in an indirect way as it impacts crew duty time, need for ground crew to turn those ~45 minute flights, landing fees, and just in the fact that planes are more efficient in cruise, all of which hammer you on costs relative to use of the same resources on longer legs. Now obviously if there's enough demand at high enough fares to cover those proportionately elevated costs, there will still be service, but a lot of things about the current environment dramatically raise that cost floor in a way that demand is unlikely to keep up with.


That's an interesting perspective. What it means is that the highest CASM routes (shortest) are also the most drivable.

Since some Texas cities were mentioned, I have to say that three hours in the car each way is just nothing to Texans. Abilene to DFW? Piece of cake.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1778
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 1:56 pm

avier wrote:
The millionth time such a topic is coming on a.net :|


And I will repeat that the topic keeps coming up, because small markets continue to exist, and 50 seaters STILL exist 20 years after Mike Boyd said they were doomed. A 50 seater can make more profit than an A350 (or A320) in many, many specific market situations.
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 925
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 2:58 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
avier wrote:
The millionth time such a topic is coming on a.net :|


And I will repeat that the topic keeps coming up, because small markets continue to exist, and 50 seaters STILL exist 20 years after Mike Boyd said they were doomed. A 50 seater can make more profit than an A350 (or A320) in many, many specific market situations.


Well, they are cycling/houring out with no 50 seat replacement aircraft on the horizon.
 
UWPAviation
Posts: 201
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:36 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 3:08 pm

william wrote:
The market abhors a vacuum. Its how SWA grew so fast flying to secondary airports that every thought was "dead". Someone will develop a new business plan to serve those airports. May not be daily service or on aircraft larger than 50 seats but someone will fill the vacuum.

Example, no one for saw Allegiant's business plan working.


I think it will depend on the city. For instance, a market like Appleton WI (the Fox Valley metro area has an estimate of 400,000 people. Add in Green Bay which is only a half hour drive north that's another 200,000). You are talking around 600,000 people. That can hold the few times a week flight to Florida, Las Vegas or Arizona. Prime vacation destinations already.

A city like a Dubuque Iowa has a metro of around 96,000 people. And has a few daily flights to Chicago O'hare on American. Cities like a Dubuque Iowa, Wausau Wisconsin etc. are more then likely going to lose service all together or it change to 1 flight a day. Unless the electric start-up planes that some airlines have invested in really pan-out to something.
 
drdisque
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:57 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 3:28 pm

Another option is Electric commuter aircraft for very short flights.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11307
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 3:29 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
A 50 seater can make more profit than an A350 (or A320) in many, many specific market situations.


Got any evidence for that? Some situations, sure.

DL and UA have decided there are far fewer of those markets than there used to be, given the problem of retaining pilots at the wages regionals (and their overlords) want to pay.
 
bval
Posts: 122
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:30 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 3:39 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
avier wrote:
The millionth time such a topic is coming on a.net :|


And I will repeat that the topic keeps coming up, because small markets continue to exist, and 50 seaters STILL exist 20 years after Mike Boyd said they were doomed. A 50 seater can make more profit than an A350 (or A320) in many, many specific market situations.


Well, they are cycling/houring out with no 50 seat replacement aircraft on the horizon.


Are they cycling out? Seems like there's a lot of frames parked in the desert with plenty of time left, and small airlines like Contour are bringing them back to life.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2606
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 3:51 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
IADCA wrote:
Well, route length does matter in an indirect way as it impacts crew duty time, need for ground crew to turn those ~45 minute flights, landing fees, and just in the fact that planes are more efficient in cruise, all of which hammer you on costs relative to use of the same resources on longer legs. Now obviously if there's enough demand at high enough fares to cover those proportionately elevated costs, there will still be service, but a lot of things about the current environment dramatically raise that cost floor in a way that demand is unlikely to keep up with.


That's an interesting perspective. What it means is that the highest CASM routes (shortest) are also the most drivable.

Since some Texas cities were mentioned, I have to say that three hours in the car each way is just nothing to Texans. Abilene to DFW? Piece of cake.


That's exactly what it means, at least in places where geographic features or population distribution don't make driving significantly more difficult (e.g., CLT to anywhere in Tennessee or anywhere in the traffic-choked parts of the I-95 corridor, which are short flights but very long drives). But of course, there are many such examples.

And the thing with driving isn't as clean as people want it to be. I live in a place with a small, mostly-RJ airport in the South that is about a 2.5 hour drive from several much larger airports. Now 2.5 hours isn't a big deal to me in isolation (like most people here), but what is a big deal is that most of my travel is short trips of <48 hours leaving early in the morning and often returning in the evening. That longer drive, coupled with extra security, the uncertainty of traffic, etc. mean that I can't feasibly fly out of the larger airports for morning flights without getting up absurdly early or staying overnight.

Applied to ABI, you're asking people who want to catch a flight out of DFW that leaves at 8:30 whether they want to fly out of Abilene at 6:30 (for which they can easily arrive at the airport at 5:45 or so) or whether they need to get up and be to DFW by 7 to deal with parking and security. Suddenly you're asking people to leave home at 4 am to catch an 8:30 flight and that 3 hour drive does seem like a big deal.
Last edited by IADCA on Tue May 10, 2022 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
capitalflyer
Posts: 711
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:43 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 3:54 pm

cloudboy wrote:
Buses already exist, and for the most part have failed in the US, so I do not see that really being a likely solution. As for driving, if you are going to drive 3 hours, then you are also going to drive 5 hours. Yes, I see there being some more driving, but as auto makers move to EVs, which make those kinds of journeys more difficult, I don't see that being a major alternative either.

I think you will find fewer hubs, and possible partnering with smaller airlines that have lower costs and can partner with more than one major servicing smaller routes. But I also think, long run, oil prices will drop as the rest of the world moves to electric vehicles and such, so it may be more profitable to fly a larger jet less frequently.


American has just introduced buses for a couple routes.

https://abc7.com/air-travel-american-ai ... /11736833/
 
32andBelow
Posts: 6284
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 4:07 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
cloudboy wrote:
Buses already exist, and for the most part have failed in the US, so I do not see that really being a likely solution. As for driving, if you are going to drive 3 hours, then you are also going to drive 5 hours. Yes, I see there being some more driving, but as auto makers move to EVs, which make those kinds of journeys more difficult, I don't see that being a major alternative either.

I think you will find fewer hubs, and possible partnering with smaller airlines that have lower costs and can partner with more than one major servicing smaller routes. But I also think, long run, oil prices will drop as the rest of the world moves to electric vehicles and such, so it may be more profitable to fly a larger jet less frequently.


American has just introduced buses for a couple routes.

https://abc7.com/air-travel-american-ai ... /11736833/

The only way buses make any sense is if they can be operated sterile and you can clear security at the local airport
 
airlineworker
Posts: 565
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 5:01 pm

32andBelow wrote:
UALFAson wrote:
Depends on the route. There are several possibilities, all of which we have seen airlines do over the past couple of years. They include, but are not limited to:

--simply eliminating service altogether
--upgauging to a larger RJ but perhaps reducing frequency
--contracting with a bus company to provide motorcoach service

I think eliminating service is the most likely. People in these smaller towns are just going to have to get used to driving 1-2 hours to a larger city instead of flying to a hub via a connection.
triangle or multi stop routings is another option


"triangle or multi stop routings is another option." Good point, years back DL did circle routes for small southern cites. ATL to two cites with DC-9's. Only bad thing is that it increased cycles quickly.
 
User avatar
JBo
Posts: 1928
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 7:23 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 5:08 pm

The 1500-hour rule is probably the biggest factor affecting the changing landscape of regional flying as we see it today. That alone made the pool of eligible pilots a lot smaller, and now pilots are getting their experiences elsewhere and finding better opportunities flying charter/corporate.

If we didn't have the 1500-hour rule change, we might not be experiencing the pilot shortage we have now, and regionals might still be inclined to operate smaller aircraft to maintain service to smaller cities.
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 925
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 5:14 pm

bval wrote:

Are they cycling out? Seems like there's a lot of frames parked in the desert with plenty of time left, and small airlines like Contour are bringing them back to life.


I think lots of the Contour birds are 135s and 140s, which were pulled down early.

Lots of the parked airplanes need C checks which won't come cheap.
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 925
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 5:15 pm

airlineworker wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
UALFAson wrote:
Depends on the route. There are several possibilities, all of which we have seen airlines do over the past couple of years. They include, but are not limited to:

--simply eliminating service altogether
--upgauging to a larger RJ but perhaps reducing frequency
--contracting with a bus company to provide motorcoach service

I think eliminating service is the most likely. People in these smaller towns are just going to have to get used to driving 1-2 hours to a larger city instead of flying to a hub via a connection.
triangle or multi stop routings is another option


"triangle or multi stop routings is another option." Good point, years back DL did circle routes for small southern cites. ATL to two cites with DC-9's. Only bad thing is that it increased cycles quickly.


But I don't think any DC-9s really cycled out. Most were killed by engine availability and fuel prices, IIRC.
 
kavok
Posts: 1152
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 5:33 pm

I think it’s worth pointing out there are two types of bus service: 1) airline affiliated (like AA ACY-PHL) and 2) non-affiliated busses.

The former is more desirable to travelers, because it includes IRROPS protection in the event of delays. The latter likely requires a public agency to offer (or subsidize) the service.

I make this distinction because using the DTW-TOL example mentioned previously, a hypothetical DL chartered DTW-TOL bus could be valuable to the Toledo area travelers (if enough people were willing to use the service). But similarly a DL chartered DTW-TOL does nothing to help AA/UA pax get to/from TOL.

This effectively means that any small market that loses service to busses becomes a monopoly market to the airline whose hub is within driving distance. Thus small market within driving distance of DEN only has UA “service”, and any market only within driving distance of DTE only has DL “service”, etc.
Last edited by kavok on Tue May 10, 2022 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AAMDanny
Posts: 374
Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 4:06 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 5:33 pm

I actually think we'll see Embraer pick up much of this market with their new turbo-prop market, for those routes that only warrant a 50 seater. The CRJ200's and ERJ145's can't fly forever. I know currently they are developing a 70-90 seater option but I wouldn't be surprised if they have a 50 seater option eventually to meet the demand, which maintains the need for x1 FA and would obviously be cheaper to operate than a a 50 seater jet. Other routes as others have mentioned may upscale to 70-90 seaters as/if the market matures.
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 3096
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 8:49 pm

32andBelow wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
cloudboy wrote:
Buses already exist, and for the most part have failed in the US, so I do not see that really being a likely solution. As for driving, if you are going to drive 3 hours, then you are also going to drive 5 hours. Yes, I see there being some more driving, but as auto makers move to EVs, which make those kinds of journeys more difficult, I don't see that being a major alternative either.

I think you will find fewer hubs, and possible partnering with smaller airlines that have lower costs and can partner with more than one major servicing smaller routes. But I also think, long run, oil prices will drop as the rest of the world moves to electric vehicles and such, so it may be more profitable to fly a larger jet less frequently.


American has just introduced buses for a couple routes.

https://abc7.com/air-travel-american-ai ... /11736833/

The only way buses make any sense is if they can be operated sterile and you can clear security at the local airport

Why? Buses will most likely operates on routes that would be the first or last leg of the trip; so, it's just changing when you enter or exit the sterile area. The number of times when a bus ride would replace a flight in the middle of a trip would be minute.
 
TWFlyGuy
Posts: 539
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:10 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 9:02 pm

JBo wrote:
The 1500-hour rule is probably the biggest factor affecting the changing landscape of regional flying as we see it today. That alone made the pool of eligible pilots a lot smaller, and now pilots are getting their experiences elsewhere and finding better opportunities flying charter/corporate.

If we didn't have the 1500-hour rule change, we might not be experiencing the pilot shortage we have now, and regionals might still be inclined to operate smaller aircraft to maintain service to smaller cities.


On the flip side, does removing the rule or lowering it create an immediate glut hurting wages, etc.???
 
32andBelow
Posts: 6284
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 10:39 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:

American has just introduced buses for a couple routes.

https://abc7.com/air-travel-american-ai ... /11736833/

The only way buses make any sense is if they can be operated sterile and you can clear security at the local airport

Why? Buses will most likely operates on routes that would be the first or last leg of the trip; so, it's just changing when you enter or exit the sterile area. The number of times when a bus ride would replace a flight in the middle of a trip would be minute.

Because clearing security at a small airport is way faster and easier than at a hub.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 683
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Tue May 10, 2022 11:23 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:

American has just introduced buses for a couple routes.

https://abc7.com/air-travel-american-ai ... /11736833/

The only way buses make any sense is if they can be operated sterile and you can clear security at the local airport

Why? Buses will most likely operates on routes that would be the first or last leg of the trip; so, it's just changing when you enter or exit the sterile area. The number of times when a bus ride would replace a flight in the middle of a trip would be minute.

Along with the drive time and cheaper parking. One thing that draws passangers to closer, smaller airports is the security process. As long as I cam check in online I can arrive at my local airport 25 minutes prior to departure. I can't do that at a major hub. It could take 25 minutes just to get from the parking lot to to security.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 9437
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 12:01 am

TWFlyGuy wrote:
JBo wrote:
The 1500-hour rule is probably the biggest factor affecting the changing landscape of regional flying as we see it today. That alone made the pool of eligible pilots a lot smaller, and now pilots are getting their experiences elsewhere and finding better opportunities flying charter/corporate.

If we didn't have the 1500-hour rule change, we might not be experiencing the pilot shortage we have now, and regionals might still be inclined to operate smaller aircraft to maintain service to smaller cities.


On the flip side, does removing the rule or lowering it create an immediate glut hurting wages, etc.???


No. In corporate aviation, we’re throwing money at pilots and not finding the requisite experience.
 
GuillaumePhilly
Posts: 31
Joined: Tue May 09, 2017 12:10 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 1:38 am

The only way buses make any sense is if they can be operated sterile and you can clear security at the local airport


That's exactly how Landine service works. Clear security at the local airport and go straight into the sterile area in PHL.
 
rajincajun01
Posts: 778
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2010 2:16 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 2:30 am

GuillaumePhilly wrote:
The only way buses make any sense is if they can be operated sterile and you can clear security at the local airport


That's exactly how Landine service works. Clear security at the local airport and go straight into the sterile area in PHL.

Not with Landline at MSP. You clear security at T2 at MSP.
 
Canuck600
Posts: 401
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:24 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 7:29 am

Does anybody have any info on Landlines's fleet? Couldn't find anything at all on the website. From looking at their Instagram it looks like operate Prevost & Van Hool coaches.
 
OlafW
Posts: 342
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:15 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 10:59 am

32andBelow wrote:
The only way buses make any sense is if they can be operated sterile and you can clear security at the local airport


How so? If a bus has to make a stop somewhere or breaks down, all passengers would have to stay on or be cleared again in the middle of nowhere - doesn't sound practical to me. Also, the bus would need to arrive at a sterile area at the airport to avoid cleared and uncleared passengers mixing. I don't think I've ever seen any airport that would be able to handle that appropriately. Clearing at the destination would just require to use the facilities that are already there.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 6284
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 11:19 am

OlafW wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The only way buses make any sense is if they can be operated sterile and you can clear security at the local airport


How so? If a bus has to make a stop somewhere or breaks down, all passengers would have to stay on or be cleared again in the middle of nowhere - doesn't sound practical to me. Also, the bus would need to arrive at a sterile area at the airport to avoid cleared and uncleared passengers mixing. I don't think I've ever seen any airport that would be able to handle that appropriately. Clearing at the destination would just require to use the facilities that are already there.
why would the bus stop? And I’d it had a problem or can just relcear at the hub airport. And obviously vehicles have a way to enter the sterile area of airports
 
Gulfstream500
Posts: 529
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:30 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 12:43 pm

As for EAS routes? I suspect 1x daily CRJ700s or multiple frequencies of Caravans and King Airs, maybe Sky Couriers someday.

I can’t say there’s a good replacement for aircraft operated by Part 380 operations though, since they are limited to 30 seats.
 
bval
Posts: 122
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:30 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 1:06 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
As for EAS routes? I suspect 1x daily CRJ700s or multiple frequencies of Caravans and King Airs, maybe Sky Couriers someday.

I can’t say there’s a good replacement for aircraft operated by Part 380 operations though, since they are limited to 30 seats.


An ERJ-135 with a few seats pulled works. I don't know how trustworthy planetspotters.net is here but it looks like ~400 total manufactured and most of them in service or scapped, with only a few remaining in stored condition. Wonder if Embraer still has the tooling for the ERJ series. A fuel efficient re-engine of these would be an interesting product.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11307
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 2:14 pm

kavok wrote:
I make this distinction because using the DTW-TOL example mentioned previously, a hypothetical DL chartered DTW-TOL bus could be valuable to the Toledo area travelers (if enough people were willing to use the service). But similarly a DL chartered DTW-TOL does nothing to help AA/UA pax get to/from TOL.

This effectively means that any small market that loses service to busses becomes a monopoly market to the airline whose hub is within driving distance. Thus small market within driving distance of DEN only has UA “service”, and any market only within driving distance of DTE only has DL “service”, etc.


Yup. That's (one reason) why I think single-carrier bus service will fail. People will just drive to the hub to avoid monopoly pricing, because, boy, AA/DL/UA will put it to you in a monopoly market. One can see fares of $1.50/mile.
 
Gulfstream500
Posts: 529
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:30 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 3:35 pm

bval wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
As for EAS routes? I suspect 1x daily CRJ700s or multiple frequencies of Caravans and King Airs, maybe Sky Couriers someday.

I can’t say there’s a good replacement for aircraft operated by Part 380 operations though, since they are limited to 30 seats.


An ERJ-135 with a few seats pulled works. I don't know how trustworthy planetspotters.net is here but it looks like ~400 total manufactured and most of them in service or scapped, with only a few remaining in stored condition. Wonder if Embraer still has the tooling for the ERJ series. A fuel efficient re-engine of these would be an interesting product.


Yes… though the issue comes when the ERJs become too old to operate years down the line.
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 7720
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 4:14 pm

AAMDanny wrote:
I actually think we'll see Embraer pick up much of this market with their new turbo-prop market, for those routes that only warrant a 50 seater.

Or perhaps this after it gets certified..... :?:

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 07.article
 
continental004
Posts: 473
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:53 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 5:09 pm

This. Is. Why. We. Need. High. Speed. Rail.
 
bval
Posts: 122
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:30 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 5:25 pm

continental004 wrote:
This. Is. Why. We. Need. High. Speed. Rail.


This is the real answer. Regionally a HSR system can connect towns and villages to hub airports the way it does in Europe. When the TGV stops at CDG, you don't think twice about booking your flight home from Lyon as a train trip to DeGaulle. We get caught up in how the distances in the US are too long for HSR to be a viable option, but we rarely think about using it to compliment other forms of transportation.
 
airlineworker
Posts: 565
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 5:25 pm

continental004 wrote:
This. Is. Why. We. Need. High. Speed. Rail.


Won't work in some areas. The Northeast can never have high speed rail on the shoreline due to the densely populated areas and high speed trains need straight rails. The shoreline from Boston to Washington is one of the most traveled routes and the existing line runs through very heavily built up population centers.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 6284
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 8:38 pm

continental004 wrote:
This. Is. Why. We. Need. High. Speed. Rail.

They can’t fill more than a 50 seat airplane but they are going to fill a whole train?
 
Vicenza
Posts: 827
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 8:46 pm

airlineworker wrote:
continental004 wrote:
This. Is. Why. We. Need. High. Speed. Rail.


Won't work in some areas. The Northeast can never have high speed rail on the shoreline due to the densely populated areas and high speed trains need straight rails. The shoreline from Boston to Washington is one of the most traveled routes and the existing line runs through very heavily built up population centers.


You must have very little experience, or knowledge, of high speed rail. High speed trains do not need straight rails....we've had tilting trains in Europe for decades. Nor is sparsely populated centre's a requisite at all considering the main purpose of high speed rail in Europe is to connect densely populated cities/areas.
 
Vicenza
Posts: 827
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 8:47 pm

continental004 wrote:
This. Is. Why. We. Need. High. Speed. Rail.


From where to where? You also don't have the infrastructure for it.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 6284
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 9:06 pm

Vicenza wrote:
airlineworker wrote:
continental004 wrote:
This. Is. Why. We. Need. High. Speed. Rail.


Won't work in some areas. The Northeast can never have high speed rail on the shoreline due to the densely populated areas and high speed trains need straight rails. The shoreline from Boston to Washington is one of the most traveled routes and the existing line runs through very heavily built up population centers.


You must have very little experience, or knowledge, of high speed rail. High speed trains do not need straight rails....we've had tilting trains in Europe for decades. Nor is sparsely populated centre's a requisite at all considering the main purpose of high speed rail in Europe is to connect densely populated cities/areas.

The dense city centers come up in Europe much more frequently. But they should build high speed rail in places that make sense in the US.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1830
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 9:38 pm

In the Non-Aviation thread, there is a discussion on how HSR is failing in California. How in the world would you ever be able to get right-of-way's in 2022 USA? NIMBY would stop it.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 9437
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: What will happen to shorter routes when airlines replace 50 seaters?

Wed May 11, 2022 9:58 pm

Vicenza wrote:
airlineworker wrote:
continental004 wrote:
This. Is. Why. We. Need. High. Speed. Rail.


Won't work in some areas. The Northeast can never have high speed rail on the shoreline due to the densely populated areas and high speed trains need straight rails. The shoreline from Boston to Washington is one of the most traveled routes and the existing line runs through very heavily built up population centers.


You must have very little experience, or knowledge, of high speed rail. High speed trains do not need straight rails....we've had tilting trains in Europe for decades. Nor is sparsely populated centre's a requisite at all considering the main purpose of high speed rail in Europe is to connect densely populated cities/areas.


You need to look at Amtrak’s rail system in the NE. No way is anything like the TGV being built on those rights of way.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos