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Kilgen wrote:CM will be fine. They survived when Taca and Avianca merged in the past, when LAN and TAM merged, the rise of new low cost airlines in the region, etc. Also CM renewed its strategic alliance with UA last year in May and it expires in 2026. That alliance has antitrust immunity with the DOT. Also, 1 member of CM's board of directors is from UA. It has good relationship with TK. So, I don't see it leaving Star Alliance.
Also, it was one of the few airlines in the region that did not go into chapter 11 nor obtained government help as all its financing was done privately during the covid 19 pandemic. It has turn a net profits in the last 3 quarters. And it is back to 96% of pre pandemic capacity. Most of the destinations that they have not reopened yet (or not stated to be reopened by mid year) are small markets that had 2 to 3 fx per week.
CM has relatively low costs and it only has 1 hub, vs its competitors with multiple hubs. It is highly efficient and due to PTY location, it can handle most if not all important destinations in the Americas using NB vs its competitors that may need to use WB. So CM can offer multiple fx per day to the top destinations in the Americas. It also started offering services to secondary cities in many countries in the Americas.
Now lets start with some hypotheticals. Let say that tomorrow CM and UA relationship terminates. Well, if that is the case, I can see it jumping with SkyTeam, as they used to be in SkyTeam (before CO left and merged with UA). CM still have good relationship with KL (they have a good amount of codeshares. Not as large as the ones with UA, but still it is quite decent for an airline not in Star Alliance). Also, it may look like they have good relationship with LA, as they don't compete directly with each other.
Cxtl1na wrote:Kilgen wrote:CM will be fine. They survived when Taca and Avianca merged in the past, when LAN and TAM merged, the rise of new low cost airlines in the region, etc. Also CM renewed its strategic alliance with UA last year in May and it expires in 2026. That alliance has antitrust immunity with the DOT. Also, 1 member of CM's board of directors is from UA. It has good relationship with TK. So, I don't see it leaving Star Alliance.
Also, it was one of the few airlines in the region that did not go into chapter 11 nor obtained government help as all its financing was done privately during the covid 19 pandemic. It has turn a net profits in the last 3 quarters. And it is back to 96% of pre pandemic capacity. Most of the destinations that they have not reopened yet (or not stated to be reopened by mid year) are small markets that had 2 to 3 fx per week.
CM has relatively low costs and it only has 1 hub, vs its competitors with multiple hubs. It is highly efficient and due to PTY location, it can handle most if not all important destinations in the Americas using NB vs its competitors that may need to use WB. So CM can offer multiple fx per day to the top destinations in the Americas. It also started offering services to secondary cities in many countries in the Americas.
Now lets start with some hypotheticals. Let say that tomorrow CM and UA relationship terminates. Well, if that is the case, I can see it jumping with SkyTeam, as they used to be in SkyTeam (before CO left and merged with UA). CM still have good relationship with KL (they have a good amount of codeshares. Not as large as the ones with UA, but still it is quite decent for an airline not in Star Alliance). Also, it may look like they have good relationship with LA, as they don't compete directly with each other.
This is because CM and LA have a long running 'pact' where they agreed to not directly compete with each other. Source? ask their employees and it's common knowledge for those who work at SCL
Cxtl1na wrote:Kilgen wrote:CM will be fine. They survived when Taca and Avianca merged in the past, when LAN and TAM merged, the rise of new low cost airlines in the region, etc. Also CM renewed its strategic alliance with UA last year in May and it expires in 2026. That alliance has antitrust immunity with the DOT. Also, 1 member of CM's board of directors is from UA. It has good relationship with TK. So, I don't see it leaving Star Alliance.
Also, it was one of the few airlines in the region that did not go into chapter 11 nor obtained government help as all its financing was done privately during the covid 19 pandemic. It has turn a net profits in the last 3 quarters. And it is back to 96% of pre pandemic capacity. Most of the destinations that they have not reopened yet (or not stated to be reopened by mid year) are small markets that had 2 to 3 fx per week.
CM has relatively low costs and it only has 1 hub, vs its competitors with multiple hubs. It is highly efficient and due to PTY location, it can handle most if not all important destinations in the Americas using NB vs its competitors that may need to use WB. So CM can offer multiple fx per day to the top destinations in the Americas. It also started offering services to secondary cities in many countries in the Americas.
Now lets start with some hypotheticals. Let say that tomorrow CM and UA relationship terminates. Well, if that is the case, I can see it jumping with SkyTeam, as they used to be in SkyTeam (before CO left and merged with UA). CM still have good relationship with KL (they have a good amount of codeshares. Not as large as the ones with UA, but still it is quite decent for an airline not in Star Alliance). Also, it may look like they have good relationship with LA, as they don't compete directly with each other.
This is because CM and LA have a long running 'pact' where they agreed to not directly compete with each other. Source? ask their employees and it's common knowledge for those who work at SCL
Cxtl1na wrote:I believe CM's way forward in the long term is to fly to more secondary cities from PTY, it's biggest competitors all have domestic networks to feed their flights onwards. for example: ANF & CJC (Antofagasta and Calama in northern Chile) are wealthy cities with high yielding business traffic (mining) and the population here also has more to spend thanks to that, so you have plenty of people, say, going on holidays to Punta Cana or Cancún. The only option you have is to backtrack (ANF/CJC-SCL-destination) which adds 5 hours to the trip, or u may choose the few frequencies theyve got to LIM.
Many people avoid that by self-connecting with buses. (ANF/CJC bus to Tacna, Arequipa or Lima)
Copa could catch this market by opening flights to cities witch such a profile, in Chile I think about, ANF, CJC and IQQ, maybe even CCP in Peru TRU, IQT (i think these two have been tried already) and CUZ, and more destinations in Brazil. By offering as many one-stop options, that also save time because theres no de-touring between the american continents AV & LAN will be competing with their 'convenient' domestic leg-secondary hub-primary hub-destination (AV and LAN have hubs for certain destinations, like LA uses LIM as a gateway to the US, and BOG to the carribean)
I hope my post can be understood, english is not my 1st language
Cxtl1na wrote:This would explain why LA hasn't started late evening LIM-PTY (arrival by midnight), early morning (departure by 0600) PTY-LIM.This is because CM and LA have a long running 'pact' where they agreed to not directly compete with each other. Source? ask their employees and it's common knowledge for those who work at SCL
2travel2know2 wrote:Cxtl1na wrote:This would explain why LA hasn't started late evening LIM-PTY (arrival by midnight), early morning (departure by 0600) PTY-LIM.This is because CM and LA have a long running 'pact' where they agreed to not directly compete with each other. Source? ask their employees and it's common knowledge for those who work at SCL
In this hemisphere, CM is a different player than AV and LA. Its business model is very CM and really based in Panama location, definitely not that much in PTY O/D.
Any major secondary airport 4h30m or so from PTY is a potential CM destination as it could operate with 2 crews (example: ATL flights right now).
So CM does have a lot of room to grow - within that range - in USA (STL, DFW, HOU, AUS/SAT, RDU, RSW, PBI), Caribbean (VRA, GCM) and South America (MTR, PZO, CUE, AQP, CBB).
But as for CM to Mexico, IMHO, other than MEX, CUN, GDL, MTY and perhaps TIJ, BJX plus NLU/TLC too, whatever traffic PTY hub can get will not sustain permanent operations.
Destinations over that 4h30m flying time do present CM a challenge, be in Brazil, Chile and Argentina, for those, CM could well route flights as TK does and fly PTY-YYY-XXX-PTY 3-4-5 times per week in markets like REC-SSA, SSA-FOR, IQQ-CJC, SLA-TUC..
Would any passenger from those cities complain of the routing? Most likely yes; Would any passenger from those cities be happy of the frequencies CM offers? Yes.
And I'd not be surprised to see CM B737-700 in CWB this year.
Sadly, I believe CM isn't ready (yet) to push DAV and start some kind of SJO/MGA and MIA (non-stop) service from that airport.
Cxtl1na wrote:I believe CM's way forward in the long term is to fly to more secondary cities from PTY, it's biggest competitors all have domestic networks to feed their flights onwards. for example: ANF & CJC (Antofagasta and Calama in northern Chile) are wealthy cities with high yielding business traffic (mining) and the population here also has more to spend thanks to that, so you have plenty of people, say, going on holidays to Punta Cana or Cancún. The only option you have is to backtrack (ANF/CJC-SCL-destination) which adds 5 hours to the trip, or u may choose the few frequencies theyve got to LIM.
Many people avoid that by self-connecting with buses. (ANF/CJC bus to Tacna, Arequipa or Lima).
Kilgen wrote:Wonder if the current Panamanian government has any desire to get DAV certified for US flights.I don't think CM would try DAV-USA because the airport needs to get up to code for US travel.
CM had SJO-MGA, I meant DAV-SJO-MGA.MGA I doubt it, at least from DAV.
Well, if CM keeps a frame in LIM overnight and has 5th liberty with both Peru and Bolivia, IMO, good thing would be to study LIM-CBB tag-on..I doubt CM would do any YYY-XXX-PTY. They got out of those routes when the NG arrived. The only routes of that type they have are between SJO and GUA.
Cubsrule wrote:CJC is interesting - a small but high-yielding Codelco/Chuqui business market and also some high-end inbound tourism to San Pedro. But would runway performance be an issue? It’s quite high and can be pretty hot.
Etheereal wrote:Cubsrule wrote:CJC is interesting - a small but high-yielding Codelco/Chuqui business market and also some high-end inbound tourism to San Pedro. But would runway performance be an issue? It’s quite high and can be pretty hot.
Isnt that what the 700 is for?
jmmadrid wrote:COPA are extremely strong and wealthy. They run a wonderful hub that offers not only convenience but reliability, something not that common in Latin America. My only questions/objections to their model are related to their fleet choice. I believe they would need something smaller than a 737-800 to fly to new markets. Many 3rd tier cities in LA that would benefit from their direct-ish service without flying to their country's capital. I thought the E-190 was a fantastic idea but it seems it didnt work out that well. Maybe the time has come for them to try the A-220? And I also think that a small widebody (B787-800?) would give them a great advantage in their longer flights (PTY-EZE, MVD, GRU, LAX, SFO, JFK) and would allow them to offer a decent Business Class product. But I'm sure they know what they're doing.
jmmadrid wrote:indeedCOPA are extremely strong and wealthy.
B737 7 MAX ?They run a wonderful hub that offers not only convenience but reliability, something not that common in Latin America. My only questions/objections to their model are related to their fleet choice. I believe they would need something smaller than a 737-800 to fly to new markets.
CM kind of dislikes having 2 different aircraft providersMany 3rd tier cities in LA that would benefit from their direct-ish service without flying to their country's capital. I thought the E-190 was a fantastic idea but it seems it didnt work out that well. Maybe the time has come for them to try the A-220?
When it comes to aircraft size, one noticeable thing on CM, is that the airline focus in frequency rather than capacity. Given a chance, CM would jump into flying PTY-EZE 4-5 times daily.And I also think that a small widebody (B787-800?) would give them a great advantage in their longer flights (PTY-EZE, MVD, GRU, LAX, SFO, JFK) and would allow them to offer a decent Business Class product.
Many things different than AM, AV and LA.But I'm sure they know what they're doing.
jbs2886 wrote:Cxtl1na wrote:Kilgen wrote:CM will be fine. They survived when Taca and Avianca merged in the past, when LAN and TAM merged, the rise of new low cost airlines in the region, etc. Also CM renewed its strategic alliance with UA last year in May and it expires in 2026. That alliance has antitrust immunity with the DOT. Also, 1 member of CM's board of directors is from UA. It has good relationship with TK. So, I don't see it leaving Star Alliance.
Also, it was one of the few airlines in the region that did not go into chapter 11 nor obtained government help as all its financing was done privately during the covid 19 pandemic. It has turn a net profits in the last 3 quarters. And it is back to 96% of pre pandemic capacity. Most of the destinations that they have not reopened yet (or not stated to be reopened by mid year) are small markets that had 2 to 3 fx per week.
CM has relatively low costs and it only has 1 hub, vs its competitors with multiple hubs. It is highly efficient and due to PTY location, it can handle most if not all important destinations in the Americas using NB vs its competitors that may need to use WB. So CM can offer multiple fx per day to the top destinations in the Americas. It also started offering services to secondary cities in many countries in the Americas.
Now lets start with some hypotheticals. Let say that tomorrow CM and UA relationship terminates. Well, if that is the case, I can see it jumping with SkyTeam, as they used to be in SkyTeam (before CO left and merged with UA). CM still have good relationship with KL (they have a good amount of codeshares. Not as large as the ones with UA, but still it is quite decent for an airline not in Star Alliance). Also, it may look like they have good relationship with LA, as they don't compete directly with each other.
This is because CM and LA have a long running 'pact' where they agreed to not directly compete with each other. Source? ask their employees and it's common knowledge for those who work at SCL
Umm. An informal pact to reduce competition between two competitors is likely illegal.
usflyer msp wrote:Cxtl1na wrote:Kilgen wrote:CM will be fine. They survived when Taca and Avianca merged in the past, when LAN and TAM merged, the rise of new low cost airlines in the region, etc. Also CM renewed its strategic alliance with UA last year in May and it expires in 2026. That alliance has antitrust immunity with the DOT. Also, 1 member of CM's board of directors is from UA. It has good relationship with TK. So, I don't see it leaving Star Alliance.
Also, it was one of the few airlines in the region that did not go into chapter 11 nor obtained government help as all its financing was done privately during the covid 19 pandemic. It has turn a net profits in the last 3 quarters. And it is back to 96% of pre pandemic capacity. Most of the destinations that they have not reopened yet (or not stated to be reopened by mid year) are small markets that had 2 to 3 fx per week.
CM has relatively low costs and it only has 1 hub, vs its competitors with multiple hubs. It is highly efficient and due to PTY location, it can handle most if not all important destinations in the Americas using NB vs its competitors that may need to use WB. So CM can offer multiple fx per day to the top destinations in the Americas. It also started offering services to secondary cities in many countries in the Americas.
Now lets start with some hypotheticals. Let say that tomorrow CM and UA relationship terminates. Well, if that is the case, I can see it jumping with SkyTeam, as they used to be in SkyTeam (before CO left and merged with UA). CM still have good relationship with KL (they have a good amount of codeshares. Not as large as the ones with UA, but still it is quite decent for an airline not in Star Alliance). Also, it may look like they have good relationship with LA, as they don't compete directly with each other.
This is because CM and LA have a long running 'pact' where they agreed to not directly compete with each other. Source? ask their employees and it's common knowledge for those who work at SCL
They do compete against each other in Colombia.
Kilgen wrote:Cxtl1na wrote:I believe CM's way forward in the long term is to fly to more secondary cities from PTY, it's biggest competitors all have domestic networks to feed their flights onwards. for example: ANF & CJC (Antofagasta and Calama in northern Chile) are wealthy cities with high yielding business traffic (mining) and the population here also has more to spend thanks to that, so you have plenty of people, say, going on holidays to Punta Cana or Cancún. The only option you have is to backtrack (ANF/CJC-SCL-destination) which adds 5 hours to the trip, or u may choose the few frequencies theyve got to LIM.
Many people avoid that by self-connecting with buses. (ANF/CJC bus to Tacna, Arequipa or Lima)
Copa could catch this market by opening flights to cities witch such a profile, in Chile I think about, ANF, CJC and IQQ, maybe even CCP in Peru TRU, IQT (i think these two have been tried already) and CUZ, and more destinations in Brazil. By offering as many one-stop options, that also save time because theres no de-touring between the american continents AV & LAN will be competing with their 'convenient' domestic leg-secondary hub-primary hub-destination (AV and LAN have hubs for certain destinations, like LA uses LIM as a gateway to the US, and BOG to the carribean)
I hope my post can be understood, english is not my 1st language
CM used to fly to IQT, but that did not work. They never flew to TRU, but they fly 2x per week to CIX. The problem with Peru is the limits in the air treaty. Right now I think CM has maxed it out on the Panamanian side. Maybe they will let CM open secondary cities, but first I think they would like CIX to stabilize, specially now that the E190 are gone and the smallest plane is the B737-700.
In Brazil, they fly to 6 destinations, 2 more should reopen hopefully next year. They tried VCP in the past, but that did not work and they closed FOR not long ago as well. Maybe if they get codeshares with AD it may work if they try again.
Ecuador, they fly to 2 of their main cities, and the bilateral changed this year to an open sky treaty, so they may open new destinations.
Colombia, they fly to 10 destinations and they will be opening SMR this year.
Chile, well there is not much to say here. CM doesn't step on LA's tail. They have 5-6 fx per day to SCL. Not seeing them opening other destinations for now.
Delta777Jet wrote:CM has a good hub and network ex PTY. They need to improve on their premium serviced though. The lounge is a aweful and crowded dumb and despise the good hard product in Business Class the soft product is pretty mediocre with bad food and weird service times. If they would work on that Business Flyers would love to fly with them as I currently try to avoid them when traveling just because of their mediocre soft product.