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TYWoolman
Posts: 1285
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:10 pm

Mikeer50 wrote:
If B6 cannot get the deal past the DOJ, Spirit will get $400m and be merging with F9 within 6 months. Anyone is crazy to believe F9 wouldn’t try again. This time the terms would be even better for F9.


How long could B6 litigate this scenario? Of course, they would litigate. Too much uncertainty for Institution Investment Firms to advocate their clients go through that.
 
airel
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 7:55 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:11 pm

F9Animal wrote:
airel wrote:
Slightly off-topic (just trying to clear the air a bit!):
This morning a car crashed into Spirit's HQ. Nothing terrible, but of course there's all kind of jokes going around... "B6 is crashing the party!"... "RH just busted in!"
Image


I'm dying! Oh man!

Does anyone else have a vision of Spirits too shareholders sitting in a jacuzzi tub, sipping on fine champagne, all smiles?

At this point, could Spirit just say "no thanks" to both and continue on solo? Is Spirit still viable on its own?


One can only hope. But sadly it seems like the chances of Spirit continuing on their own are pretty slim. It is viable on its own, for sure, but the conditions are set for it to be more valuable combined or acquired.
 
fastmover
Posts: 702
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:11 pm

Jetport wrote:
Is there any price/package JetBlue could offer that Spirit's board would accept? The Spirit board obviously doesn't care at all about their owners (shareholders) best interests. This is the worst example I have ever seen of a board/management team trying to save their jobs at the expense of their shareholders, absolutely stunning.



Nope the spirit boards least liked color is blue.
 
fastmover
Posts: 702
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:17 pm

sxf24 wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
Is there any price/package JetBlue could offer that Spirit's board would accept? The Spirit board obviously doesn't care at all about their owners (shareholders) best interests. This is the worst example I have ever seen of a board/management team trying to save their jobs at the expense of their shareholders, absolutely stunning.

Exactly, it’s quite pathetic how far off the basic tenet of doing their job for shareholders has enveloped into a personal enrichment. Very pathetic for the spirit board.


This is an opinion that is not supported with facts.



Oh I don’t know at least one investment group with 2 million opinions seems to think so.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1954
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:25 pm

fastmover wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
dopplerd wrote:

Remind me, how did that work out for Enron leadership and stockholders? If Spirit board is anything close to Enron then the B6 deal should be a no brainer.


Alleging the NK board is complicit in fraud is inappropriate and unnecessarily personal. Unfortunately, these types of attacks is the current B6 playbook rather than taking the high road and focusing on facts.



Well maybe they are?


Maybe Robin is a space alien. Or a communist. We can throw out random accusations with no proof all day.
 
fastmover
Posts: 702
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:36 pm

sxf24 wrote:
fastmover wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Alleging the NK board is complicit in fraud is inappropriate and unnecessarily personal. Unfortunately, these types of attacks is the current B6 playbook rather than taking the high road and focusing on facts.



Well maybe they are?


Maybe Robin is a space alien. Or a communist. We can throw out random accusations with no proof all day.



These guys are making it up?

The Board’s self-serving actions and failure to accept JetBlue’s $33.50 per share offer is preventing shareholders from receiving superior value.

Regards,

Drew Figdor
Portfolio Manager
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 2066
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:45 pm

dopplerd wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Jetport wrote:
Is there any price/package JetBlue could offer that Spirit's board would accept? The Spirit board obviously doesn't care at all about their owners (shareholders) best interests. This is the worst example I have ever seen of a board/management team trying to save their jobs at the expense of their shareholders, absolutely stunning.

Stunning? This had been corporate America's MO for years now. How many years ago was Enron?


Remind me, how did that work out for Enron leadership and stockholders? If Spirit board is anything close to Enron then the B6 deal should be a no brainer.

Not good. That said, I am not saying anything like that is going on here. I'm just saying no one should trust that management isn't looking out for themselves anywhere. B6, F9, or NK.
 
MUWarriors
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed May 04, 2005 12:11 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:46 pm

santi319 wrote:
VS11 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
https://ir.flyfrontier.com/node/8166/pdf


Brilliant beyond words!!!!


Really? This is just rambling. First time I see such poorly constructed corporate document so publicly distributed.


Its hilariously sad, and beyond unprofessional, even if they do merge, as a shareholder I’ll be worried about the way a management like this runs things.

I’m also a shareholder (very small time, but shareholder nonetheless), and I was leaning toward the F9 offer. This is an account that is more of a fun, play with different stocks longer term account, so cashing out was not a priority, but after that particular document by F9, I’m much more up in the air.

I think F9 does a fine job explaining why they think there are regulatory hurdles for the B6 deal. I think those are concerns that do exist. What they do not do, however, is explain why the DOJ won’t have similar concerns for the F9-NK deal. Obviously their argument is that since fares won’t go up, the DOJ will be just fine with everything. I do not believe that to be the case. If you’re attacking B6 for not recognizing the regulatory hurdles, you better be willing to address the issues behind your own bid. B6’s IR documents at least acknowledge the hurdles being mentioned, agree or disagree with what they say about how they address them, they don’t completely pretend the hurdles don’t exist. F9’s document reads the way they accuse B6 of behaving, by hand waving away regulatory concerns. I, personally, would like to have a better grasp on why they think Biden’s DOJ will simply say, “They’re growing, but they’re still cheap, so it’s all good.”

Then beyond the regulatory concerns the rest of the document is nothing. The thing I really want to know is why do they think this offer will be worth more? On the one hand I see a clean $33/share from B6. F9 says their stock prices will rise and make up the difference, but they don’t explain why they believe the combined company will be able to increase stock prices so significantly despite the headwinds they face. I don’t want to just see why B6 is bad, sell me on why you’re good.

And then two pedantic things. First, if you’re going to accuse B6 of being unprofessional and childish, then F9 should’ve be name calling, and childish. I personally think both sides have been real bad on this front, and it’s annoying.

Finally I have my own pet peeve. It’s a very simple thing to fix, but the fact that their IR/marketing/design teams didn’t give any attention the formatting of the document reads as super unprofessional and lazy. It seems pedantic, and I know that this was designed as a webpage that they quick formatted into a pdf, but you gotta look at page breaks on a pdf. If you’re trying to sell yourself to investors, especially institutional investors. It can’t look like crap like this pdf does. Charts should not be split between two pages. Pictures should not be separate from their headers. These are basic things. Like I say, I know it sounds silly, but professionalism in these situations matter. If you half-ass something that you’re using to impress investors now, how can you be trusted to not half ass things in the future when your entire bid is predicated on a stock price increase? It’s not a thing that sways my decision, exactly, but it doesn’t put F9 in a good light. Again, I know it’s designed to read as a webpage, but 2 minutes of clean-up goes a long way on stuff like this.

But substantively I would have much rather seen, “Here’s why we think our stock price will increase, and here’s why we think the DOJ isn’t going to be a problem,” then them reiterating things they’ve already said about B6’s regulatory hurdles.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 1285
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:49 pm

fastmover wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
fastmover wrote:


Well maybe they are?


Maybe Robin is a space alien. Or a communist. We can throw out random accusations with no proof all day.



These guys are making it up?

The Board’s self-serving actions and failure to accept JetBlue’s $33.50 per share offer is preventing shareholders from receiving superior value.

Regards,

Drew Figdor
Portfolio Manager


They aren't preventing anything. In fact the B6 deal is now more than that thanks to the process. In that limited view of superior value, voting yes would prevent it, not the board. Superior value is in a combined F9/NK that can be consummated.
 
Brianpr3
Posts: 134
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:34 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:13 pm

What are the chances the shareholders strong arm spirit into accepting the jbu deal?
 
HunterATL
Posts: 157
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:15 am

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:16 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
What are the chances the shareholders strong arm spirit into accepting the jbu deal?


Why would that matter? Any agreement between Spirit and JetBlue had to be approved by a majority of the shareholders. The shareholders who want B6 can simply vote down the proxy on NK and then tender their shares to B6.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1954
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:18 pm

fastmover wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
fastmover wrote:


Well maybe they are?


Maybe Robin is a space alien. Or a communist. We can throw out random accusations with no proof all day.



These guys are making it up?

The Board’s self-serving actions and failure to accept JetBlue’s $33.50 per share offer is preventing shareholders from receiving superior value.

Regards,

Drew Figdor
Portfolio Manager


There is no prevention. Shareholders can vote how they choose. Further, this opinion is quite different from accusing Spirits board of forgoing their fiduciary duty or committing fraud.
 
ZazuPIT
Posts: 183
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:32 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:38 pm

fastmover wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
fastmover wrote:


Is there one where JetBlue and spirit will dominate?


I don’t know. But the DOJ will be looking at the removal of seats and decrease of competition in legacy hubs.



Ok but we keep going over this seat thing. Are we assuming that spirit and f9 will keep the same amount of seats and flights where they currently go head to head? Maybe maybe not.


Are you assuming if B6 wins they will keep the same amount of seats? If so, I want some of what you are smoking. If JetBlue does win, I predict they "may" be flying 25% of NK routes within 2 years. It is naive to think they will keep many unique Spirit cities and routes. No way will B6 be able to compete in the fortress hubs of the big 4.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 13473
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:46 pm

sxf24 wrote:
fastmover wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Maybe Robin is a space alien. Or a communist. We can throw out random accusations with no proof all day.



These guys are making it up?

The Board’s self-serving actions and failure to accept JetBlue’s $33.50 per share offer is preventing shareholders from receiving superior value.

Regards,

Drew Figdor
Portfolio Manager


There is no prevention. Shareholders can vote how they choose. Further, this opinion is quite different from accusing Spirits board of forgoing their fiduciary duty or committing fraud.

Also hard to argue Spirit board is forgoing their fiduciary duty when the board’s “prevention” has resulted in a B6 offer even better than B6’s initial one (same with F9).

Sounds like it was a good thing NK was so resistive…B6 was clearly leaving money off the table.
Last edited by Polot on Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
fastmover
Posts: 702
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:46 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
fastmover wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Maybe Robin is a space alien. Or a communist. We can throw out random accusations with no proof all day.



These guys are making it up?

The Board’s self-serving actions and failure to accept JetBlue’s $33.50 per share offer is preventing shareholders from receiving superior value.

Regards,

Drew Figdor
Portfolio Manager


They aren't preventing anything. In fact the B6 deal is now more than that thanks to the process. In that limited view of superior value, voting yes would prevent it, not the board. Superior value is in a combined F9/NK that can be consummated.



In your opinion not his. Do you have 2 million shares?
 
fastmover
Posts: 702
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:48 pm

ZazuPIT wrote:
fastmover wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

I don’t know. But the DOJ will be looking at the removal of seats and decrease of competition in legacy hubs.



Ok but we keep going over this seat thing. Are we assuming that spirit and f9 will keep the same amount of seats and flights where they currently go head to head? Maybe maybe not.


Are you assuming if B6 wins they will keep the same amount of seats? If so, I want some of what you are smoking. If JetBlue does win, I predict they "may" be flying 25% of NK routes within 2 years. It is naive to think they will keep many unique Spirit cities and routes. No way will B6 be able to compete in the fortress hubs of the big 4.


Nope I didn’t say that at all. But we don’t know if F9 will keep them either.

It seems like everyone thinks they will merge keep all of the city’s and all of the flights and add more and the DOJ will be like sure sure.

Just saying it’s not like there won’t be other issues but some pretend there won’t be.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 1285
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:49 pm

MUWarriors wrote:
santi319 wrote:
VS11 wrote:

Really? This is just rambling. First time I see such poorly constructed corporate document so publicly distributed.


Its hilariously sad, and beyond unprofessional, even if they do merge, as a shareholder I’ll be worried about the way a management like this runs things.

I’m also a shareholder (very small time, but shareholder nonetheless), and I was leaning toward the F9 offer. This is an account that is more of a fun, play with different stocks longer term account, so cashing out was not a priority, but after that particular document by F9, I’m much more up in the air.

I think F9 does a fine job explaining why they think there are regulatory hurdles for the B6 deal. I think those are concerns that do exist. What they do not do, however, is explain why the DOJ won’t have similar concerns for the F9-NK deal. Obviously their argument is that since fares won’t go up, the DOJ will be just fine with everything. I do not believe that to be the case. If you’re attacking B6 for not recognizing the regulatory hurdles, you better be willing to address the issues behind your own bid. B6’s IR documents at least acknowledge the hurdles being mentioned, agree or disagree with what they say about how they address them, they don’t completely pretend the hurdles don’t exist. F9’s document reads the way they accuse B6 of behaving, by hand waving away regulatory concerns. I, personally, would like to have a better grasp on why they think Biden’s DOJ will simply say, “They’re growing, but they’re still cheap, so it’s all good.”

Then beyond the regulatory concerns the rest of the document is nothing. The thing I really want to know is why do they think this offer will be worth more? On the one hand I see a clean $33/share from B6. F9 says their stock prices will rise and make up the difference, but they don’t explain why they believe the combined company will be able to increase stock prices so significantly despite the headwinds they face. I don’t want to just see why B6 is bad, sell me on why you’re good.

And then two pedantic things. First, if you’re going to accuse B6 of being unprofessional and childish, then F9 should’ve be name calling, and childish. I personally think both sides have been real bad on this front, and it’s annoying.

Finally I have my own pet peeve. It’s a very simple thing to fix, but the fact that their IR/marketing/design teams didn’t give any attention the formatting of the document reads as super unprofessional and lazy. It seems pedantic, and I know that this was designed as a webpage that they quick formatted into a pdf, but you gotta look at page breaks on a pdf. If you’re trying to sell yourself to investors, especially institutional investors. It can’t look like crap like this pdf does. Charts should not be split between two pages. Pictures should not be separate from their headers. These are basic things. Like I say, I know it sounds silly, but professionalism in these situations matter. If you half-ass something that you’re using to impress investors now, how can you be trusted to not half ass things in the future when your entire bid is predicated on a stock price increase? It’s not a thing that sways my decision, exactly, but it doesn’t put F9 in a good light. Again, I know it’s designed to read as a webpage, but 2 minutes of clean-up goes a long way on stuff like this.

But substantively I would have much rather seen, “Here’s why we think our stock price will increase, and here’s why we think the DOJ isn’t going to be a problem,” then them reiterating things they’ve already said about B6’s regulatory hurdles.


I like your attention to detail. But the substance of NK's argument can really be summarized into one word: consummation; Plus, most assets intact with an F9 to drive superior value on the upside. Scrutiny yes for both deals. But one acquirer (B6) takes out 50 percent of the ULCC market, raises fares and is higher cost. The other furthers the ULCC model into a meaningful competitor. Divestitures leave it up to the recipient to start from scratch and won't have the intended remedy proposed by DOJ to make meaningful difference. DOJ will litigate and F9 would also imo.
 
Thomaas
Posts: 770
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:52 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:50 pm

ZazuPIT wrote:
fastmover wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

I don’t know. But the DOJ will be looking at the removal of seats and decrease of competition in legacy hubs.



Ok but we keep going over this seat thing. Are we assuming that spirit and f9 will keep the same amount of seats and flights where they currently go head to head? Maybe maybe not.


Are you assuming if B6 wins they will keep the same amount of seats? If so, I want some of what you are smoking. If JetBlue does win, I predict they "may" be flying 25% of NK routes within 2 years. It is naive to think they will keep many unique Spirit cities and routes. No way will B6 be able to compete in the fortress hubs of the big 4.

How has JetBlue become one of the largest airlines at BOS & JFK without effectively competing against the legacies ?
 
sxf24
Posts: 1954
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:52 pm

fastmover wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
fastmover wrote:


Ok but we keep going over this seat thing. Are we assuming that spirit and f9 will keep the same amount of seats and flights where they currently go head to head? Maybe maybe not.


Are you assuming if B6 wins they will keep the same amount of seats? If so, I want some of what you are smoking. If JetBlue does win, I predict they "may" be flying 25% of NK routes within 2 years. It is naive to think they will keep many unique Spirit cities and routes. No way will B6 be able to compete in the fortress hubs of the big 4.


Nope I didn’t say that at all. But we don’t know if F9 will keep them either.

It seems like everyone thinks they will merge keep all of the city’s and all of the flights and add more and the DOJ will be like sure sure.

Just saying it’s not like there won’t be other issues but some pretend there won’t be.


We know that F9/NK would put more seats into the market than B6/NK by virtue of the different LOPAs. We also know that ULCCs compete on price, not product, and that B6 plans to raise fares to offset the higher cost of delivering the better product.
 
ZazuPIT
Posts: 183
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:32 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:55 pm

Thomaas wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
fastmover wrote:


Ok but we keep going over this seat thing. Are we assuming that spirit and f9 will keep the same amount of seats and flights where they currently go head to head? Maybe maybe not.


Are you assuming if B6 wins they will keep the same amount of seats? If so, I want some of what you are smoking. If JetBlue does win, I predict they "may" be flying 25% of NK routes within 2 years. It is naive to think they will keep many unique Spirit cities and routes. No way will B6 be able to compete in the fortress hubs of the big 4.

How has JetBlue become one of the largest airlines at BOS & JFK without effectively competing against the legacies ?


I'm referring to the ATL's and DFW's of the world. B6 has been a one trick pony since its inception. NE to Florida, and a bunch of transcons from that same NE base. Believe it or not, people outside those places fly too. They aren't going to fly NK's routes out of say, Atlanta. Delta will crush them. Same in any large hub where NK has a presence. When i see a formidable B6 in Chicago, Denver, Phoenix, Seattle, and the aforementioned others, then we can talk.

Edit for spelling
Last edited by ZazuPIT on Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 1285
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:56 pm

Thomaas wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
fastmover wrote:


Ok but we keep going over this seat thing. Are we assuming that spirit and f9 will keep the same amount of seats and flights where they currently go head to head? Maybe maybe not.


Are you assuming if B6 wins they will keep the same amount of seats? If so, I want some of what you are smoking. If JetBlue does win, I predict they "may" be flying 25% of NK routes within 2 years. It is naive to think they will keep many unique Spirit cities and routes. No way will B6 be able to compete in the fortress hubs of the big 4.

How has JetBlue become one of the largest airlines at BOS & JFK without effectively competing against the legacies ?


They didn't have to worry about an effective more robust ULCC competitor across other parts of their system, that's how. And effective competition is eliminated with the NEA. An NK merger would be decided amid NEA litigations, not after.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1822
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:58 pm

Well I bought Spirit stock yesterday in my brokerage account. How are they going to contact me to vote? looking to hit the lottery here ;)
 
HunterATL
Posts: 157
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:15 am

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:06 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Well I bought Spirit stock yesterday in my brokerage account. How are they going to contact me to vote? looking to hit the lottery here ;)


The record date is May 6, 2022. You don't get to vote.
 
Runway765
Posts: 780
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:07 pm

MUWarriors wrote:
I think F9 does a fine job explaining why they think there are regulatory hurdles for the B6 deal. I think those are concerns that do exist. What they do not do, however, is explain why the DOJ won’t have similar concerns for the F9-NK deal. Obviously their argument is that since fares won’t go up, the DOJ will be just fine with everything. I do not believe that to be the case. If you’re attacking B6 for not recognizing the regulatory hurdles, you better be willing to address the issues behind your own bid. B6’s IR documents at least acknowledge the hurdles being mentioned, agree or disagree with what they say about how they address them, they don’t completely pretend the hurdles don’t exist. F9’s document reads the way they accuse B6 of behaving, by hand waving away regulatory concerns. I, personally, would like to have a better grasp on why they think Biden’s DOJ will simply say, “They’re growing, but they’re still cheap, so it’s all good.”


What concerns would the DOJ have with an F9/NK merger? This is what I don’t understand. You have two niche ULCCs, one of which (F9) has poor frequency in most markets, coming together to form a bigger carrier to take on the US4. Total seats will still be the same or more as F9 has very dense planes, and they still really wouldn’t be dominant in any market save for maybe Florida, and even then, there is still healthy competition. I see zero downside to the F9/NK merger from a pure competition standpoint.

B6/NK on the other hand? It’s very curious that, despite alleging that they’ve been interested in NK for several years, they all of a sudden decide to bid when F9 announces their bid. The combination of the fact that B6 is essentially a feeder airline for AA in the northeast at this point via the NEA, the fact that their costs are much higher than NK (with lower seat density so ASM’s will go down, thus raising fares), and the fact that they’ve consistently failed to expand in any significant way outside the NE/Florida and make themselves accessible to other parts of America makes me skeptical of any of B6’s claims here.

I’ve said this from Day 1, this smells like a desperation move on B6’s part to simply eliminate a competitor that will give them even more headaches if they merge with F9. The DOJ should 110% deny a B6/NK merger, and if they do approve it, one of the conditions should be B6 must expand outside the NE/Florida by creating a 200+ flight hub in the Midwest or Texas to make them more accessible to the rest of America. That way it ensures B6 puts their money where there mouth is.
 
JFKalumni
Posts: 315
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:45 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:17 pm

I’m surprised we have yet to hear from JetBlue shareholders. This is a lot of debt to load onto the company. Litigation in the event of F9 securing the deal, pending DOJ action against NEA, Airbus payments, Cares Act support funds repayment, (In the event of B6 winning) Pilot salary integration and NK initial acquisition costs, SOC integration, rebranding cost, higher fuel costs.

A few years ago, B6 shareholders were upset because the company refused to charge for onboard WiFi and generate additional revenue, what are they saying about this load of debt coming soon?
 
User avatar
tlecam
Posts: 1795
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:38 pm

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:22 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
MUWarriors wrote:
santi319 wrote:

Its hilariously sad, and beyond unprofessional, even if they do merge, as a shareholder I’ll be worried about the way a management like this runs things.

I’m also a shareholder (very small time, but shareholder nonetheless), and I was leaning toward the F9 offer. This is an account that is more of a fun, play with different stocks longer term account, so cashing out was not a priority, but after that particular document by F9, I’m much more up in the air.

I think F9 does a fine job explaining why they think there are regulatory hurdles for the B6 deal. I think those are concerns that do exist. What they do not do, however, is explain why the DOJ won’t have similar concerns for the F9-NK deal. Obviously their argument is that since fares won’t go up, the DOJ will be just fine with everything. I do not believe that to be the case. If you’re attacking B6 for not recognizing the regulatory hurdles, you better be willing to address the issues behind your own bid. B6’s IR documents at least acknowledge the hurdles being mentioned, agree or disagree with what they say about how they address them, they don’t completely pretend the hurdles don’t exist. F9’s document reads the way they accuse B6 of behaving, by hand waving away regulatory concerns. I, personally, would like to have a better grasp on why they think Biden’s DOJ will simply say, “They’re growing, but they’re still cheap, so it’s all good.”

Then beyond the regulatory concerns the rest of the document is nothing. The thing I really want to know is why do they think this offer will be worth more? On the one hand I see a clean $33/share from B6. F9 says their stock prices will rise and make up the difference, but they don’t explain why they believe the combined company will be able to increase stock prices so significantly despite the headwinds they face. I don’t want to just see why B6 is bad, sell me on why you’re good.

And then two pedantic things. First, if you’re going to accuse B6 of being unprofessional and childish, then F9 should’ve be name calling, and childish. I personally think both sides have been real bad on this front, and it’s annoying.

Finally I have my own pet peeve. It’s a very simple thing to fix, but the fact that their IR/marketing/design teams didn’t give any attention the formatting of the document reads as super unprofessional and lazy. It seems pedantic, and I know that this was designed as a webpage that they quick formatted into a pdf, but you gotta look at page breaks on a pdf. If you’re trying to sell yourself to investors, especially institutional investors. It can’t look like crap like this pdf does. Charts should not be split between two pages. Pictures should not be separate from their headers. These are basic things. Like I say, I know it sounds silly, but professionalism in these situations matter. If you half-ass something that you’re using to impress investors now, how can you be trusted to not half ass things in the future when your entire bid is predicated on a stock price increase? It’s not a thing that sways my decision, exactly, but it doesn’t put F9 in a good light. Again, I know it’s designed to read as a webpage, but 2 minutes of clean-up goes a long way on stuff like this.

But substantively I would have much rather seen, “Here’s why we think our stock price will increase, and here’s why we think the DOJ isn’t going to be a problem,” then them reiterating things they’ve already said about B6’s regulatory hurdles.


I like your attention to detail. But the substance of NK's argument can really be summarized into one word: consummation; Plus, most assets intact with an F9 to drive superior value on the upside. Scrutiny yes for both deals. But one acquirer (B6) takes out 50 percent of the ULCC market, raises fares and is higher cost. The other furthers the ULCC model into a meaningful competitor. Divestitures leave it up to the recipient to start from scratch and won't have the intended remedy proposed by DOJ to make meaningful difference. DOJ will litigate and F9 would also imo.


B6 acquiring NK is not going to take out 50% of the low cost market unless you define that market as pure play low cost carrier. As noted above, the legacies have basic economy seats to compete for those flyers.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:22 pm

JFKalumni wrote:
I’m surprised we have yet to hear from JetBlue shareholders. This is a lot of debt to load onto the company. Litigation in the event of F9 securing the deal, pending DOJ action against NEA, Airbus payments, Cares Act support funds repayment, (In the event of B6 winning) Pilot salary integration and NK initial acquisition costs, SOC integration, rebranding cost, higher fuel costs.

A few years ago, B6 shareholders were upset because the company refused to charge for onboard WiFi and generate additional revenue, what are they saying about this load of debt coming soon?


Given as previously stated, many of the B6 shareholders are in fact shareholders of NK, I'm less surprised, as they are in on the conversations already, just not making their feelings known except for TIG that stated they are voting Against F9 and for B6.
 
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tlecam
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:27 pm

JFKalumni wrote:
I’m surprised we have yet to hear from JetBlue shareholders. This is a lot of debt to load onto the company. Litigation in the event of F9 securing the deal, pending DOJ action against NEA, Airbus payments, Cares Act support funds repayment, (In the event of B6 winning) Pilot salary integration and NK initial acquisition costs, SOC integration, rebranding cost, higher fuel costs.

A few years ago, B6 shareholders were upset because the company refused to charge for onboard WiFi and generate additional revenue, what are they saying about this load of debt coming soon?


Personally, I think B6 is out over its skis with its proposal. I think that the debt will be problematic and that the integration (particularly the ops and IT) are going to be a distraction even if it goes smoothly. However, other than NK and F9, the only reasonable remaining inorganic growth option of any scale is AK and that has its own issues, so B6 might view this as “must win”.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:27 pm

tlecam wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
MUWarriors wrote:
I’m also a shareholder (very small time, but shareholder nonetheless), and I was leaning toward the F9 offer. This is an account that is more of a fun, play with different stocks longer term account, so cashing out was not a priority, but after that particular document by F9, I’m much more up in the air.

I think F9 does a fine job explaining why they think there are regulatory hurdles for the B6 deal. I think those are concerns that do exist. What they do not do, however, is explain why the DOJ won’t have similar concerns for the F9-NK deal. Obviously their argument is that since fares won’t go up, the DOJ will be just fine with everything. I do not believe that to be the case. If you’re attacking B6 for not recognizing the regulatory hurdles, you better be willing to address the issues behind your own bid. B6’s IR documents at least acknowledge the hurdles being mentioned, agree or disagree with what they say about how they address them, they don’t completely pretend the hurdles don’t exist. F9’s document reads the way they accuse B6 of behaving, by hand waving away regulatory concerns. I, personally, would like to have a better grasp on why they think Biden’s DOJ will simply say, “They’re growing, but they’re still cheap, so it’s all good.”

Then beyond the regulatory concerns the rest of the document is nothing. The thing I really want to know is why do they think this offer will be worth more? On the one hand I see a clean $33/share from B6. F9 says their stock prices will rise and make up the difference, but they don’t explain why they believe the combined company will be able to increase stock prices so significantly despite the headwinds they face. I don’t want to just see why B6 is bad, sell me on why you’re good.

And then two pedantic things. First, if you’re going to accuse B6 of being unprofessional and childish, then F9 should’ve be name calling, and childish. I personally think both sides have been real bad on this front, and it’s annoying.

Finally I have my own pet peeve. It’s a very simple thing to fix, but the fact that their IR/marketing/design teams didn’t give any attention the formatting of the document reads as super unprofessional and lazy. It seems pedantic, and I know that this was designed as a webpage that they quick formatted into a pdf, but you gotta look at page breaks on a pdf. If you’re trying to sell yourself to investors, especially institutional investors. It can’t look like crap like this pdf does. Charts should not be split between two pages. Pictures should not be separate from their headers. These are basic things. Like I say, I know it sounds silly, but professionalism in these situations matter. If you half-ass something that you’re using to impress investors now, how can you be trusted to not half ass things in the future when your entire bid is predicated on a stock price increase? It’s not a thing that sways my decision, exactly, but it doesn’t put F9 in a good light. Again, I know it’s designed to read as a webpage, but 2 minutes of clean-up goes a long way on stuff like this.

But substantively I would have much rather seen, “Here’s why we think our stock price will increase, and here’s why we think the DOJ isn’t going to be a problem,” then them reiterating things they’ve already said about B6’s regulatory hurdles.


I like your attention to detail. But the substance of NK's argument can really be summarized into one word: consummation; Plus, most assets intact with an F9 to drive superior value on the upside. Scrutiny yes for both deals. But one acquirer (B6) takes out 50 percent of the ULCC market, raises fares and is higher cost. The other furthers the ULCC model into a meaningful competitor. Divestitures leave it up to the recipient to start from scratch and won't have the intended remedy proposed by DOJ to make meaningful difference. DOJ will litigate and F9 would also imo.


B6 acquiring NK is not going to take out 50% of the low cost market unless you define that market as pure play low cost carrier. As noted above, the legacies have basic economy seats to compete for those flyers.


The incentive to maintain legacy basic economy seats at that fare level its greatly diminished if NK/ULCC model isn't there anymore.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:29 pm

JFKalumni wrote:
I’m surprised we have yet to hear from JetBlue shareholders. This is a lot of debt to load onto the company. Litigation in the event of F9 securing the deal, pending DOJ action against NEA, Airbus payments, Cares Act support funds repayment, (In the event of B6 winning) Pilot salary integration and NK initial acquisition costs, SOC integration, rebranding cost, higher fuel costs.

A few years ago, B6 shareholders were upset because the company refused to charge for onboard WiFi and generate additional revenue, what are they saying about this load of debt coming soon?



They are probably hoping NK will make them an attractive takeover target.
 
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tlecam
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:39 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
tlecam wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:

I like your attention to detail. But the substance of NK's argument can really be summarized into one word: consummation; Plus, most assets intact with an F9 to drive superior value on the upside. Scrutiny yes for both deals. But one acquirer (B6) takes out 50 percent of the ULCC market, raises fares and is higher cost. The other furthers the ULCC model into a meaningful competitor. Divestitures leave it up to the recipient to start from scratch and won't have the intended remedy proposed by DOJ to make meaningful difference. DOJ will litigate and F9 would also imo.


B6 acquiring NK is not going to take out 50% of the low cost market unless you define that market as pure play low cost carrier. As noted above, the legacies have basic economy seats to compete for those flyers.


The incentive to maintain legacy basic economy seats at that fare level its greatly diminished if NK/ULCC model isn't there anymore.


Yes that’s definitely a plausible scenario, although I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that the legacies will see B6 acquire NK and remove their basic economy product. The legacies are competing with each other as well as NK, F9, B6 and WN to fill those seats on different routes and they need the traffic to keep their hub model profitable. Additionally, with NK and F9 as a singular entity I doubt that the combined airline keep prices artificially low without the competition that is no longer there.

We will see. This is one area where the DOJ is going to spend some time for sure.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:44 pm

tlecam wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
tlecam wrote:

B6 acquiring NK is not going to take out 50% of the low cost market unless you define that market as pure play low cost carrier. As noted above, the legacies have basic economy seats to compete for those flyers.


The incentive to maintain legacy basic economy seats at that fare level its greatly diminished if NK/ULCC model isn't there anymore.


Yes that’s definitely a plausible scenario, although I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that the legacies will see B6 acquire NK and remove their basic economy product. The legacies are competing with each other as well as NK, F9, B6 and WN to fill those seats on different routes and they need the traffic to keep their hub model profitable. Additionally, with NK and F9 as a singular entity I doubt that the combined airline keep prices artificially low without the competition that is no longer there.

We will see. This is one area where the DOJ is going to spend some time for sure.


For sure.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:48 pm

tlecam wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
tlecam wrote:

B6 acquiring NK is not going to take out 50% of the low cost market unless you define that market as pure play low cost carrier. As noted above, the legacies have basic economy seats to compete for those flyers.


The incentive to maintain legacy basic economy seats at that fare level its greatly diminished if NK/ULCC model isn't there anymore.


Yes that’s definitely a plausible scenario, although I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that the legacies will see B6 acquire NK and remove their basic economy product. The legacies are competing with each other as well as NK, F9, B6 and WN to fill those seats on different routes and they need the traffic to keep their hub model profitable. Additionally, with NK and F9 as a singular entity I doubt that the combined airline keep prices artificially low without the competition that is no longer there.

We will see. This is one area where the DOJ is going to spend some time for sure.


I do have to add: F9/NK combination will be incentivized to keep fares low because their customer base will demand it! What good is charging more without the perks like B6 would offer, or the legacies?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:56 pm

VS4ever wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:
I’m surprised we have yet to hear from JetBlue shareholders. This is a lot of debt to load onto the company. Litigation in the event of F9 securing the deal, pending DOJ action against NEA, Airbus payments, Cares Act support funds repayment, (In the event of B6 winning) Pilot salary integration and NK initial acquisition costs, SOC integration, rebranding cost, higher fuel costs.

A few years ago, B6 shareholders were upset because the company refused to charge for onboard WiFi and generate additional revenue, what are they saying about this load of debt coming soon?


Given as previously stated, many of the B6 shareholders are in fact shareholders of NK, I'm less surprised, as they are in on the conversations already, just not making their feelings known except for TIG that stated they are voting Against F9 and for B6.


Some B6 shareholders are shareholders of NK.

And I'd argue they have already made their feelings known, the stock is down 41% YTD...... more than any other major airline.

Also TIG is not a good example, they don't own B6 shares.
https://fintel.io/i/tig-advisors-llc
Last edited by Midwestindy on Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
mats01776
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:00 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
I do have to add: F9/NK combination will be incentivized to keep fares low because their customer base will demand it! What good is charging more without the perks like B6 would offer, or the legacies?


I am just wondering when one ULCC buys out another ULCC, is there going to be more or less ULCC competiion, and what it does or does not do to the prices that consumers pay.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:11 pm

To post above....Depends how you look at it. "Less" since there is one less option, obviously. "More" because the remaining large player of consequence (F9/NK entity) now has greater scope and survivability, a mainstay against the legacies and a driver of demand for more ULCC service down the pipeline.
 
Thomaas
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:32 pm

Most here seem to forget that there is much larger route overlap between F9 and NK then between B6 and NK. It is questionable at best to say F9’s acquisition will face no opposition.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:39 pm

Thomaas wrote:
Most here seem to forget that there is much larger route overlap between F9 and NK then between B6 and NK. It is questionable at best to say F9’s acquisition will face no opposition.


The overlap between F9/NK purportedly has more legacy competition than the overlap of B6/NK, so the B6/NK may raise more questions than the other.
 
MUWarriors
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:43 pm

Runway765 wrote:

What concerns would the DOJ have with an F9/NK merger? This is what I don’t understand. You have two niche ULCCs, one of which (F9) has poor frequency in most markets, coming together to form a bigger carrier to take on the US4. Total seats will still be the same or more as F9 has very dense planes, and they still really wouldn’t be dominant in any market save for maybe Florida, and even then, there is still healthy competition. I see zero downside to the F9/NK merger from a pure competition standpoint.

Roughly the same concerns as a B6/F9 merger. In both cases you wind up with an airline of roughly the same size, B6’s proposal limits seat numbers, F9’s reduces competition due to greater route overlap. F9 and NK can state until they’re blue in the face that prices won’t go up, and everything will remain the same. The problem is past merger history does not necessarily support this scenario. Reducing competition raises the likelihood that prices increase, and there would be no recourse to stop it after the merger is complete. The Biden administration is anti-merger under almost any circumstance, so any merger will come under severe scrutiny. I want to know how F9/NK plan to deal with that scrutiny.
 
Abeam79
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:50 pm

Thomaas wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
fastmover wrote:


Ok but we keep going over this seat thing. Are we assuming that spirit and f9 will keep the same amount of seats and flights where they currently go head to head? Maybe maybe not.


Are you assuming if B6 wins they will keep the same amount of seats? If so, I want some of what you are smoking. If JetBlue does win, I predict they "may" be flying 25% of NK routes within 2 years. It is naive to think they will keep many unique Spirit cities and routes. No way will B6 be able to compete in the fortress hubs of the big 4.

How has JetBlue become one of the largest airlines at BOS & JFK without effectively competing against the legacies ?

Thank you!
Zazu…that statement is purely baseless, are you paying attention? Not only do they go up against the big legacies, but foreign legacies like BA on the most competitive route nyc-London, and from i hear it’s doing great.
The reason they want to aquire spirit and supercharge the airline is to be a better competitor, you can’t be a true competitor adding routes in these mega hubs from legacies when your 1/4 their size.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:53 pm

MUWarriors wrote:
Runway765 wrote:

What concerns would the DOJ have with an F9/NK merger? This is what I don’t understand. You have two niche ULCCs, one of which (F9) has poor frequency in most markets, coming together to form a bigger carrier to take on the US4. Total seats will still be the same or more as F9 has very dense planes, and they still really wouldn’t be dominant in any market save for maybe Florida, and even then, there is still healthy competition. I see zero downside to the F9/NK merger from a pure competition standpoint.

Roughly the same concerns as a B6/F9 merger. In both cases you wind up with an airline of roughly the same size, B6’s proposal limits seat numbers, F9’s reduces competition due to greater route overlap. F9 and NK can state until they’re blue in the face that prices won’t go up, and everything will remain the same. The problem is past merger history does not necessarily support this scenario. Reducing competition raises the likelihood that prices increase, and there would be no recourse to stop it after the merger is complete. The Biden administration is anti-merger under almost any circumstance, so any merger will come under severe scrutiny. I want to know how F9/NK plan to deal with that scrutiny.


Prices increased past mergers because passengers would only get more of the same elsewhere (other legacies who merged). F9/NK will have more incentive to keep prices lower because passengers can simply jump ship to a "better" experience on B6 for the same price. F9/NK solidify a true differentiator for the long-term imo.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:55 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
Thomaas wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:

Are you assuming if B6 wins they will keep the same amount of seats? If so, I want some of what you are smoking. If JetBlue does win, I predict they "may" be flying 25% of NK routes within 2 years. It is naive to think they will keep many unique Spirit cities and routes. No way will B6 be able to compete in the fortress hubs of the big 4.

How has JetBlue become one of the largest airlines at BOS & JFK without effectively competing against the legacies ?

Thank you!
Zazu…that statement is purely baseless, are you paying attention? Not only do they go up against the big legacies, but foreign legacies like BA on the most competitive route nyc-London, and from i hear it’s doing great.
The reason they want to aquire spirit and supercharge the airline is to be a better competitor, you can’t be a true competitor adding routes in these mega hubs from legacies when your 1/4 their size.



B6 has no huge frequent flyer base to warrant competing against any "legacy." That's the reason for AA, which remains to be litigated. That's why I consider B6 a glorified ULCC (and that's not meant to be disparaging)
Last edited by TYWoolman on Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
mats01776
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:01 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
To post above....Depends how you look at it. "Less" since there is one less option, obviously. "More" because the remaining large player of consequence (F9/NK entity) now has greater scope and survivability, a mainstay against the legacies and a driver of demand for more ULCC service down the pipeline.

So, it naturally follows that, in your line of logic, the F9/NK merger would result in less ULCC competion, and, likely higher fare prices. No?
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:06 pm

mats01776 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
To post above....Depends how you look at it. "Less" since there is one less option, obviously. "More" because the remaining large player of consequence (F9/NK entity) now has greater scope and survivability, a mainstay against the legacies and a driver of demand for more ULCC service down the pipeline.

So, it naturally follows that, in your line of logic, the F9/NK merger would result in less ULCC competion, and, likely higher fare prices. No?


I do not have a crystal ball, but I think NO it does not mean higher fares. The reason (mentioned previous few posts) is that a larger ULCC will be incentivized to keep their customer base happy, which is low fares, no frills. Otherwise, those passengers can easily jump ship to B6 and the Legacies for more perks at the same price of a higher ULCC fare. ULCC cost structure can't supply the perks.
 
Abeam79
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:07 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
Thomaas wrote:
How has JetBlue become one of the largest airlines at BOS & JFK without effectively competing against the legacies ?

Thank you!
Zazu…that statement is purely baseless, are you paying attention? Not only do they go up against the big legacies, but foreign legacies like BA on the most competitive route nyc-London, and from i hear it’s doing great.
The reason they want to aquire spirit and supercharge the airline is to be a better competitor, you can’t be a true competitor adding routes in these mega hubs from legacies when your 1/4 their size.



B6 has no huge frequent flyer base to warrant competing against any "legacy." That's the reason for AA, which remains to be litigated. That's why I consider B6 a glorified ULCC.

I disagree, ULCC’s don’t offer a premium cabin, move into highest cost, higher yeild airports, dozens of codeshares, a looming lounge in play, and more free amentities than any other US airline. B6 has been many times described as a boutique hybrid airline, to me its a very streamlined, watered down version of a legacy. Only 3, soon to be 2 fleet types and goes to 3 continents with transoceanic operations. I surmise you obviously don’t live near the B6 bases they are big out of cause they do in fact have a very sizeable ff base in the more important and largest markets in the nation. The main plus for the nea is for slots more than anything. Again, many analyst have stated both have equal scrutiny. The nk/f9 merger has almost double route overlap than in the B6/NK. And past is prologue, everytime there is a merger those overlapping routes consolidate and viola’….prices go up.
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:11 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
Thomaas wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:

Are you assuming if B6 wins they will keep the same amount of seats? If so, I want some of what you are smoking. If JetBlue does win, I predict they "may" be flying 25% of NK routes within 2 years. It is naive to think they will keep many unique Spirit cities and routes. No way will B6 be able to compete in the fortress hubs of the big 4.

How has JetBlue become one of the largest airlines at BOS & JFK without effectively competing against the legacies ?

Thank you!
Zazu…that statement is purely baseless, are you paying attention? Not only do they go up against the big legacies, but foreign legacies like BA on the most competitive route nyc-London, and from i hear it’s doing great.
The reason they want to aquire spirit and supercharge the airline is to be a better competitor, you can’t be a true competitor adding routes in these mega hubs from legacies when your 1/4 their size.


You "hear" London is doing great. Do we have any data to prove it? Regardless, they want to acquire NK to (1) get rid of a competitor, (2) get planes fast, (3) get pilots fast. As I stated before, if people believe that B6 will keep even a fraction of Spirit's route system, they are dreaming. As I and others have said, when B6 can compete in the interior of the nation, then they might be a player. They have had 20+ years to go up against the legacies and become a true national competitor. They have failed at that. The world does not revolve around NYC and BOS. I have no skin in this game, but I know desperation when I see it. JetBlue is running scared.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 604
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:13 pm

ZazuPIT wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
Thomaas wrote:
How has JetBlue become one of the largest airlines at BOS & JFK without effectively competing against the legacies ?

Thank you!
Zazu…that statement is purely baseless, are you paying attention? Not only do they go up against the big legacies, but foreign legacies like BA on the most competitive route nyc-London, and from i hear it’s doing great.
The reason they want to aquire spirit and supercharge the airline is to be a better competitor, you can’t be a true competitor adding routes in these mega hubs from legacies when your 1/4 their size.


You "hear" London is doing great. Do we have any data to prove it? Regardless, they want to acquire NK to (1) get rid of a competitor, (2) get planes fast, (3) get pilots fast. As I stated before, if people believe that B6 will keep even a fraction of Spirit's route system, they are dreaming. As I and others have said, when B6 can compete in the interior of the nation, then they might be a player. They have had 20+ years to go up against the legacies and become a true national competitor. They have failed at that. The world does not revolve around NYC and BOS. I have no skin in this game, but I know desperation when I see it. JetBlue is running scared.

Ok sure, you seem to know it all.
And yes it’s doing good with London. Why do you think they are adding 3 more routes to London in the coming months from nyc and Boston.
 
MUWarriors
Posts: 208
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:13 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
Prices increased past mergers because passengers would only get more of the same elsewhere (other legacies who merged). F9/NK will have more incentive to keep prices lower because passengers can simply jump ship to a "better" experience on B6 for the same price. F9/NK solidify a true differentiator for the long-term imo.

But, if B6, doesn’t compete on a given route, what’s going to keep F9/NK honest? Right now they are keeping each other honest with their ULCC competition, what motivation do they have to ensure rock bottom prices when the other major ULCC is gone? I see you later mention keeping their customers loyal, but I think it’s fair to say loyalty is not the driving factor for many (most?) F9/NK customers. They are after price conscious shoppers who will pick any fare $1 less than a competitor. I’m not saying that’s a terrible model, but I do think it limits F9/NK’s desire to keep prices super low like they do now post merger. Or at the very least, that’ll be the DOJ’s argument.

What I’m saying is from a DOJ perspective there isn’t a huge difference between the two mergers. I think the F9 offer has a slightly better chance, but I don’t think it’s huge. Basically if the DOJ is comfortable with one, they’d be comfortable with either. To be honest, the more I think about it the less concerned I am with who the merger is with long term, and more about the breakup fee, because I think it’s going to be a long, tough fight for either.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:18 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
Thank you!
Zazu…that statement is purely baseless, are you paying attention? Not only do they go up against the big legacies, but foreign legacies like BA on the most competitive route nyc-London, and from i hear it’s doing great.
The reason they want to aquire spirit and supercharge the airline is to be a better competitor, you can’t be a true competitor adding routes in these mega hubs from legacies when your 1/4 their size.



B6 has no huge frequent flyer base to warrant competing against any "legacy." That's the reason for AA, which remains to be litigated. That's why I consider B6 a glorified ULCC.

I disagree, ULCC’s don’t offer a premium cabin, move into highest cost, higher yeild airports, dozens of codeshares, a looming lounge in play, and more free amentities than any other US airline. B6 has been many times described as a boutique hybrid airline, to me its a very streamlined, watered down version of a legacy. Only 3, soon to be 2 fleet types and goes to 3 continents with transoceanic operations. I surmise you obviously don’t live near the B6 bases they are big out of cause they do in fact have a very sizeable ff base in the more important and largest markets in the nation. The main plus for the nea is for slots more than anything. Again, many analyst have stated both have equal scrutiny. The nk/f9 merger has almost double route overlap than in the B6/NK. And past is prologue, everytime there is a merger those overlapping routes consolidate and viola’….prices go up.


We disagree, and that's cool. Would be boring otherwise lol. I do live near a base. I do think B6 has a lot of potential but they are not the right fit for NK. Natural market tendencies bring NK into the fold of F9. Equal scrutiny, yes, but with different outcomes.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 604
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:23 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:


B6 has no huge frequent flyer base to warrant competing against any "legacy." That's the reason for AA, which remains to be litigated. That's why I consider B6 a glorified ULCC.

I disagree, ULCC’s don’t offer a premium cabin, move into highest cost, higher yeild airports, dozens of codeshares, a looming lounge in play, and more free amentities than any other US airline. B6 has been many times described as a boutique hybrid airline, to me its a very streamlined, watered down version of a legacy. Only 3, soon to be 2 fleet types and goes to 3 continents with transoceanic operations. I surmise you obviously don’t live near the B6 bases they are big out of cause they do in fact have a very sizeable ff base in the more important and largest markets in the nation. The main plus for the nea is for slots more than anything. Again, many analyst have stated both have equal scrutiny. The nk/f9 merger has almost double route overlap than in the B6/NK. And past is prologue, everytime there is a merger those overlapping routes consolidate and viola’….prices go up.


We disagree, and that's cool. Would be boring otherwise lol. I do live near a base. I do think B6 has a lot of potential but they are not the right fit for NK. Natural market tendencies bring NK into the fold of F9. Equal scrutiny, yes, but with different outcomes.

LOL isn’t the whole point of a forum is to entertain each other saucy banter? :wink2:

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