SWALUV wrote:

cloudboy wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Thanks for your thoughts on that but it wasn't quite where I was trying to take this.

I was comparing DL fares per mile on a route without a ULCC (DTW-BOS, which at least has JetBlue), against a route with a ULCC (DTW-LAS with Spirit). I did cite DL Basic Economy fares on both routes.

I'm not calling B6 a ULCC. For what it's worth - and maybe for another thread - I call them a LCC along with AS and WN, all based on avg yields, not carrier costs.

I don't believe there's much chance that B6 will convert to Spirit's ULCC model. Instead they'll wind up reconfiguring aircraft to B6 standards -- and, importanly, move all Spirit employees to B6 wage scales and work rules (and unions in the relevant crafts). That would, IMHO, destroy the profitability that Spirit has built today. If B6 thought Spirit's Midwest-to-beach routes could get comparable B6 JFK-XXX and BOS-XXX yields, B6 would have been building out the route network that way for years. And yet we see clearly they have not.

(Yes, Spirit flies more than Midwest-to-beach.)

In large, I agree with a sentiment posted upthread. B6 is pursuing this not as a great deal, but its last chance for a deal.

I think B6 is large enough to skip this and grow organically but investment bankers and lawyers don't make $$$$ that way, so they push for deals.

I disagree. I think B6 wants to become a ULCC but has been unable to pull it off. I think that is the root of the operation issues, and also their motivating factor here. Let B6 die down to premium routes, and let Spirit take over some of the smaller and lower yielding routes B6 runs now. That is what appeals to the accountants and stock analysts, and that is what is driving decisions. Personally I don't think it will work, but that won't keep them from trying. If they really wanted the LLC business they would focus on improving service, but so far they haven't done anything to that effect. They see Neelman moving in with Breeze, and they know he will out perform them at their/his own game, aso they are trying to make moves now.

At the same time, I think there is going to be such negative reaction at this point publicly, whether you feel justified or not, any move to merge any Us airlines at this point won't get approval.

I think it’s been clearly covered and stated multiple times that the current B6 product is what will continue forward. B6 has shown a continued investment in the passenger experience that is unlike the traditional ULCC experience. From what has been said, that won’t change going forward.

Lootess wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Lootess wrote:

Forgetting the ULCC factor, the more slots they have the happier DOT and DOJ are. Worst kept secret in US aviation. You can look at previous slot mergers like UA/CO, also little overlap, and two legacies. Leased out EWR slots to a certain LCC.

NK/B6 already have such little overlap, and they'll likely unload NYC area slots considering the hub.

They can't unload any NYC area slots because of the commitments laid out in the NEA, I'm assuming that's partially why NK is opposed to this.

There is no way all NYC slots will stay in-tact when they merge with an airline that has LGA slots, they just might just have to shed a hair from the 195 JFK dailies, hardly a deal breaker.

Midwestindy wrote:

"Flight attendants’ union backs Spirit-Frontier merger, clearing labor hurdle"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/flight- ... erger.html

To be expected, but does raise questions about the integration process should shareholders decide to go for a B6 deal

Midwestindy wrote:

"Flight attendants’ union backs Spirit-Frontier merger, clearing labor hurdle"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/flight- ... erger.html

To be expected, but does raise questions about the integration process should shareholders decide to go for a B6 deal

Midwestindy wrote:

fastmover wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

delusional?

No one is arguing that either merger doesn't mean less competition. B6 is quite simply much worse for competition.



Let's try this one more time.

BOTH mergers have the potential to raise prices, one(B6) more than the other.

Let's explain using your example:

Essentially pre any merger- NK has 10% market share at $50, F9 has 10% market share at $50, B6 has 10% market share at $100, every other airline has 70% market share at $150.
$5+5+10+105 = $125 average fare in that scenario

Scenario 1 NK+F9 merger: 20% total market share, and let's even say the combined airline raises prices by 50%. So they control 20% of the market at $75, B6 has 10% market share still at $100, and every other carrier has 70% market share at $150.
$15+10+105 = $130 average fare in that scenario

Scenario 2 NK+B6 merger: 20% total market share, let's even say B6 keeps fares flat at $100, F9 has 10% market share and raises prices by 50%, every other airline has 70% market share at $150
$20+7.5+105 = $132.5 average fare in that scenario

It's a rudimentary example, but a B6 merger is still more damaging to consumers.

We will see but as I said before people on here have said F9 wins either way because they will just grow into the gaps left by JetBlue. So if that’s true it looks like the consumer would be just fine.

"Consumer would be just fine"

Spirit flew 40 million seats last year, compared to F9's 28 million.....

How do you propose F9 "fill in the gaps," especially in airports that are gate constrained, many of which are some of NK's largest stations.

Midwestindy wrote:

Lootess wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Let's be explicit here, B6 said they were willing to give up NK's assets in BOS/NYC (which would have been a given), outside of that they have made no further definitive commitments.

And if we are to believe what B6 says, they want this merger in large part to gain access to NK's assets in these gate constrained airports (ATL and ORD were listed as examples). So if that is a core tenant of their investment reasoning, why would they be willing to let go of significant chunks of assets they were trying to gain?



My response was about the consumer not F9, because you said "the consumer would be just fine"

Forgetting the ULCC factor, the more slots they have the happier DOT and DOJ are. Worst kept secret in US aviation. You can look at previous slot mergers like UA/CO, also little overlap, and two legacies. Leased out EWR slots to a certain LCC.

NK/B6 already have such little overlap, and they'll likely unload NYC area slots considering the hub.

They can't unload any NYC area slots because of the commitments laid out in the NEA, I'm assuming that's partially why NK is opposed to this.

fastmover wrote:

rdhnvegas wrote:

They both operate very different business models that typically tend to very different types of travelers. The only real thing they have in common is their love for FLL and the all Airbus fleet. So, what is the end goal of this take over? Would JetBlue just kill the Spirit brand, absorb the Airbus fleet, and just move along (like Delta/NW or AA/US)? Or do they intent to shift their business model to include ULCC operations?

It’s not a guess they told everyone. They need the planes the pilots and the real estate spirit has. They think this is a good option for a rapid size up in scale. It will all be the current JetBlue model spirt will only exist (in spirit)

Vicenza wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

umichman wrote:

I'm not calling B6 a ULCC. For what it's worth - and maybe for another thread - I call them a LCC along with AS and WN, all based on avg yields, not carrier costs.

But an being an LCC is determined by carrier costs, not yields, average or otherwise.

positiverate wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Lootess wrote:

Forgetting the ULCC factor, the more slots they have the happier DOT and DOJ are. Worst kept secret in US aviation. You can look at previous slot mergers like UA/CO, also little overlap, and two legacies. Leased out EWR slots to a certain LCC.

NK/B6 already have such little overlap, and they'll likely unload NYC area slots considering the hub.

They can't unload any NYC area slots because of the commitments laid out in the NEA, I'm assuming that's partially why NK is opposed to this.

They can unload NK’s slots in the NYC area, certainly.

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

you know.. I've never flown JetBlue, Frontier, nor Spirit.

But I see Frontier and Spirit as growing... and JetBlue as retracting. I've always wanted to try JetBlue.. .they were just never going anywhere I was going...

regardless of what happens... I suspect Frontier is the winner (either merges w/ Spirit or picks up all the pieces that JetBlue drops if they merge with Spirit.).

JoseSalazar wrote:

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

you know.. I've never flown JetBlue, Frontier, nor Spirit.

But I see Frontier and Spirit as growing... and JetBlue as retracting. I've always wanted to try JetBlue.. .they were just never going anywhere I was going...

regardless of what happens... I suspect Frontier is the winner (either merges w/ Spirit or picks up all the pieces that JetBlue drops if they merge with Spirit.).

You see jetblue as retracting? Haven’t they grown more than any other carrier since covid? They have 4,500 pilots and are planning on hiring a total of over 1,000 this year alone. They’ve hired something like 5000-6000 employees this year alone. What am I missing?

Abeam79 wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

you know.. I've never flown JetBlue, Frontier, nor Spirit.

But I see Frontier and Spirit as growing... and JetBlue as retracting. I've always wanted to try JetBlue.. .they were just never going anywhere I was going...

regardless of what happens... I suspect Frontier is the winner (either merges w/ Spirit or picks up all the pieces that JetBlue drops if they merge with Spirit.).

You see jetblue as retracting? Haven’t they grown more than any other carrier since covid? They have 4,500 pilots and are planning on hiring a total of over 1,000 this year alone. They’ve hired something like 5000-6000 employees this year alone. What am I missing?

Exactly, they are not "retracting" they will be at 2019 levels and grown since emerging from covid vs its peers are still below 2019 levels. That statement is a head scratcher.

trueblew wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

"Flight attendants’ union backs Spirit-Frontier merger, clearing labor hurdle"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/flight- ... erger.html

To be expected, but does raise questions about the integration process should shareholders decide to go for a B6 deal

Of course AFA are supportive of the Frontier deal; they don't want to have to provide in-flight service, much less two services per flight.

cloudboy wrote:

Do you think they are desperate to get more space at FLL?

Abeam79 wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

you know.. I've never flown JetBlue, Frontier, nor Spirit.

But I see Frontier and Spirit as growing... and JetBlue as retracting. I've always wanted to try JetBlue.. .they were just never going anywhere I was going...

regardless of what happens... I suspect Frontier is the winner (either merges w/ Spirit or picks up all the pieces that JetBlue drops if they merge with Spirit.).

You see jetblue as retracting? Haven’t they grown more than any other carrier since covid? They have 4,500 pilots and are planning on hiring a total of over 1,000 this year alone. They’ve hired something like 5000-6000 employees this year alone. What am I missing?

Exactly, they are not "retracting" they will be at 2019 levels and grown since emerging from covid vs its peers are still below 2019 levels. That statement is a head scratcher.

GSPSPOT wrote:

Can all this just be OVER WITH already??

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

Abeam79 wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

You see jetblue as retracting? Haven’t they grown more than any other carrier since covid? They have 4,500 pilots and are planning on hiring a total of over 1,000 this year alone. They’ve hired something like 5000-6000 employees this year alone. What am I missing?

Exactly, they are not "retracting" they will be at 2019 levels and grown since emerging from covid vs its peers are still below 2019 levels. That statement is a head scratcher.

Your opinions.

santi319 wrote:

I think its so funny how most here think B6 wants NK because of FLL or because of their pilots.

The truth is, its a combination of all of that plus their planes and workforce, with a side of ambition. Robyn’s letter to NK after the board declined their offer, specifically mentions B6 trying to get NK for a long time. NKs board did a poison pill in 2020, I suspect this has to do with B6. I also suspect Indigo and NK’s management have been in an agreement for a while now but everything got delayed because of covid.

We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, but clearly a lot more has been going on behind the public’s eye. Even the newest FA contract of B6 shows a future “purser” program, why would they want to do that unless the airline plans to eventually become a full service carrier? Me thinks B6 is aiming to join the big 3 and give them a run for the money in the next 20 years. Buying NK will just speed that process.

positiverate wrote:

santi319 wrote:

I think its so funny how most here think B6 wants NK because of FLL or because of their pilots.

The truth is, its a combination of all of that plus their planes and workforce, with a side of ambition. Robyn’s letter to NK after the board declined their offer, specifically mentions B6 trying to get NK for a long time. NKs board did a poison pill in 2020, I suspect this has to do with B6. I also suspect Indigo and NK’s management have been in an agreement for a while now but everything got delayed because of covid.

We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, but clearly a lot more has been going on behind the public’s eye. Even the newest FA contract of B6 shows a future “purser” program, why would they want to do that unless the airline plans to eventually become a full service carrier? Me thinks B6 is aiming to join the big 3 and give them a run for the money in the next 20 years. Buying NK will just speed that process.

Where did it say “B6 trying to get NK for a long time.”

usflyer msp wrote:

Abeam79 wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

You see jetblue as retracting? Haven’t they grown more than any other carrier since covid? They have 4,500 pilots and are planning on hiring a total of over 1,000 this year alone. They’ve hired something like 5000-6000 employees this year alone. What am I missing?

Exactly, they are not "retracting" they will be at 2019 levels and grown since emerging from covid vs its peers are still below 2019 levels. That statement is a head scratcher.

The preception that B6 is "retracting" is somewhat valid.
The problem is that they keep publishing ambitious future schedules that they cannot staff or otherwise maintain and then have to cull closer in - giving the perception that they are shrinking,
B6 can operate closer to 2019 numbers because they didn't retire any aircraft and have new NEA flying to make up for the stuff they did cut.

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

you know.. I've never flown JetBlue, Frontier, nor Spirit.

But I see Frontier and Spirit as growing... and JetBlue as retracting. I've always wanted to try JetBlue.. .they were just never going anywhere I was going...

regardless of what happens... I suspect Frontier is the winner (either merges w/ Spirit or picks up all the pieces that JetBlue drops if they merge with Spirit.).

FlyinRabbit88 wrote:

positiverate wrote:

santi319 wrote:

I think its so funny how most here think B6 wants NK because of FLL or because of their pilots.

The truth is, its a combination of all of that plus their planes and workforce, with a side of ambition. Robyn’s letter to NK after the board declined their offer, specifically mentions B6 trying to get NK for a long time. NKs board did a poison pill in 2020, I suspect this has to do with B6. I also suspect Indigo and NK’s management have been in an agreement for a while now but everything got delayed because of covid.

We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, but clearly a lot more has been going on behind the public’s eye. Even the newest FA contract of B6 shows a future “purser” program, why would they want to do that unless the airline plans to eventually become a full service carrier? Me thinks B6 is aiming to join the big 3 and give them a run for the money in the next 20 years. Buying NK will just speed that process.

Where did it say “B6 trying to get NK for a long time.”

Was stated in one of the briefings that jetblue was looking at Spirit before Covid.

Lootess wrote:

positiverate wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

They can't unload any NYC area slots because of the commitments laid out in the NEA, I'm assuming that's partially why NK is opposed to this.

They can unload NK’s slots in the NYC area, certainly.

Yes, the simplest solution is just unload LGA assets from NK.

Merger shouldn't affect the NEA standing with the DOT provided they don't "regain" slots they already divested.

positiverate wrote:

santi319 wrote:

I think its so funny how most here think B6 wants NK because of FLL or because of their pilots.

The truth is, its a combination of all of that plus their planes and workforce, with a side of ambition. Robyn’s letter to NK after the board declined their offer, specifically mentions B6 trying to get NK for a long time. NKs board did a poison pill in 2020, I suspect this has to do with B6. I also suspect Indigo and NK’s management have been in an agreement for a while now but everything got delayed because of covid.

We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, but clearly a lot more has been going on behind the public’s eye. Even the newest FA contract of B6 shows a future “purser” program, why would they want to do that unless the airline plans to eventually become a full service carrier? Me thinks B6 is aiming to join the big 3 and give them a run for the money in the next 20 years. Buying NK will just speed that process.

Where did it say “B6 trying to get NK for a long time.”

Acquiring Spirit has been a strategic objective of JetBlue for many years and, as such, we were
disappointed that the Spirit Board of Directors (the "Spirit Board") elected not to have any
discussions with us prior to the announcement of Sprit's transaction with Frontier Group Holdings,
Inc. ("Frontier"). This lack of engagement regrettably resulted in Spirit entering into a transaction
with Frontier that clearly does not maximize value for Spirit's stockholders.

While we would unquestionably prefer
to negotiate a transaction with you, if you continue to refuse to constructively engage with us so
that we can deliver this value to your stockholders, we are actively considering all other options
available to us.

RyanairGuru wrote:

trueblew wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

"Flight attendants’ union backs Spirit-Frontier merger, clearing labor hurdle"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/flight- ... erger.html

To be expected, but does raise questions about the integration process should shareholders decide to go for a B6 deal

Of course AFA are supportive of the Frontier deal; they don't want to have to provide in-flight service, much less two services per flight.

Individual flight attendants might feel that way, but the AFA itself supports F9 because they (most likely) lose representation, and therefore members dues, if NK merges with TWU represented B6.

F9Animal wrote:

I'm still just so confused. Spirit was kind of the ULCC darling if that is what you want to call it. Are they in financial trouble? Why the sudden interest in buying them?

Can Spirit still be successful on it's own?

sxf24 wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

trueblew wrote:

Of course AFA are supportive of the Frontier deal; they don't want to have to provide in-flight service, much less two services per flight.

Individual flight attendants might feel that way, but the AFA itself supports F9 because they (most likely) lose representation, and therefore members dues, if NK merges with TWU represented B6.

TWU opposes the B6 hostile bid, calling B6 a “hostile employer.” https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022 ... -employer/

fastmover wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

Abeam79 wrote:

Exactly, they are not "retracting" they will be at 2019 levels and grown since emerging from covid vs its peers are still below 2019 levels. That statement is a head scratcher.

The preception that B6 is "retracting" is somewhat valid.
The problem is that they keep publishing ambitious future schedules that they cannot staff or otherwise maintain and then have to cull closer in - giving the perception that they are shrinking,
B6 can operate closer to 2019 numbers because they didn't retire any aircraft and have new NEA flying to make up for the stuff they did cut.

B6 is not the only airline to cut back schedules this year.

Midwestindy wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

Individual flight attendants might feel that way, but the AFA itself supports F9 because they (most likely) lose representation, and therefore members dues, if NK merges with TWU represented B6.

TWU opposes the B6 hostile bid, calling B6 a “hostile employer.” https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022 ... -employer/

My question is, with all things considered:

Why would the Department allow a merger between B6+NK with employee groups at both companies publicly stating the merger would be anti-competitive?

Midwestindy wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

Individual flight attendants might feel that way, but the AFA itself supports F9 because they (most likely) lose representation, and therefore members dues, if NK merges with TWU represented B6.

TWU opposes the B6 hostile bid, calling B6 a “hostile employer.” https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022 ... -employer/

My question is, with all things considered:

Why would the Department allow a merger between B6+NK with employee groups at both companies publicly stating the merger would be anti-competitive?

Midwestindy wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

Individual flight attendants might feel that way, but the AFA itself supports F9 because they (most likely) lose representation, and therefore members dues, if NK merges with TWU represented B6.

TWU opposes the B6 hostile bid, calling B6 a “hostile employer.” https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022 ... -employer/

My question is, with all things considered:

Why would the Department allow a merger between B6+NK with employee groups at both companies publicly stating the merger would be anti-competitive?

sxf24 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

TWU opposes the B6 hostile bid, calling B6 a “hostile employer.” https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022 ... -employer/

My question is, with all things considered:

Why would the Department allow a merger between B6+NK with employee groups at both companies publicly stating the merger would be anti-competitive?

It would be foolish for B6 management to try and proceed without the support of employee groups. At this point, they look to be incredibly arrogant and out of touch, bulldozing forward with no real support behind them except Goldman Sachs. Not good optics.

santi319 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

TWU opposes the B6 hostile bid, calling B6 a “hostile employer.” https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022 ... -employer/

My question is, with all things considered:

Why would the Department allow a merger between B6+NK with employee groups at both companies publicly stating the merger would be anti-competitive?

Its very simple really, F9 + NK they stay AFA and AFA does not lose $$$ in union dues for their budget.

NK + B6 = NK and B6 FA have to vote whether they want to keep AFA (NK) or keep TWU (B6). Members will vote and one or the other will lose a workforce = lose member dues = lose budget.

Everybody is just looking out for their own interests and not for their members.

SoCalFlyer wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

TWU opposes the B6 hostile bid, calling B6 a “hostile employer.” https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022 ... -employer/

My question is, with all things considered:

Why would the Department allow a merger between B6+NK with employee groups at both companies publicly stating the merger would be anti-competitive?

Let’s read between the lines. TWU is afraid of having to have a vote off with AFA to see which union stays. It would be an expensive campaign for them, and they have a huge risk of loosing out on millions of dollars a year if jetblue FAs decide to go with AFA. That’s the only reason his response was so hostile. And I can tell you that the FAs at jetblue ass PISSED at what John Samuelson said. Jetblue might have its issues, but their employees would never call the company “horrific”.

SoCalFlyer wrote:

This was sent by SPIRITS ALPA to their CEO. And, WOW! I think they are not thrilled about having to go back and work for Indigo.

SoCalFlyer wrote:

BA744PHX wrote:

Talking about last act of desperation on B6, time to let it go….

JetBlue is conducting business. Plain and simple. They do not have to let anything go until a decision is made by the owners of Spirit. Your calling it a “act of desperation “ is a bit of a stretch.

sxf24 wrote:

SoCalFlyer wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

My question is, with all things considered:

Why would the Department allow a merger between B6+NK with employee groups at both companies publicly stating the merger would be anti-competitive?

Let’s read between the lines. TWU is afraid of having to have a vote off with AFA to see which union stays. It would be an expensive campaign for them, and they have a huge risk of loosing out on millions of dollars a year if jetblue FAs decide to go with AFA. That’s the only reason his response was so hostile. And I can tell you that the FAs at jetblue ass PISSED at what John Samuelson said. Jetblue might have its issues, but their employees would never call the company “horrific”.

If there are individual FAs that disagree with their union’s statement, they need to take that up with TWU. The reality is that TWU was elected to represent the interests of their members and the presumption should be their statement is representative of those interest.

JoseSalazar wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

sxf24 wrote:

TWU opposes the B6 hostile bid, calling B6 a “hostile employer.” https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022 ... -employer/

My question is, with all things considered:

Why would the Department allow a merger between B6+NK with employee groups at both companies publicly stating the merger would be anti-competitive?

Because “the department” knows most FAs aren’t exactly experts in evaluating whether or not a business deal is anti-competitive. It doesn’t really matter what most employees think…be it flight attendants, pilots, mechanics, etc. It’s based first on the shareholder vote June 10th, then on the merits of leadership/lawyers’ arguments and how they are perceived. Jetblue makes a pretty compelling case why it isn’t anticompetitive (the main argument is that broader competition against the big 3 is more important than a larger ULCC airline for consumers, and whatever ULCC gaps exist after this merger can easily be filled by F9/G4/MX/SY/XP). Not sure why what a flight attendants union says matters. It’s like when a union puts out a vote of no confidence in leadership, it’s not like the feds come in and say “hey! He must go!”