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TYWoolman
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Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 7:15 am

I find it hard to believe no other airlines are making a creative play for B6, F9 and NK at the moment. So I would like to propose a last minute creative push on the F9/NK side in my mind and my mind only: What if Delta "sweetens" the F9/NK deal via MOU on a strategic partnership with no equity involved restricted to the Miami market? All B6 arguments on the NEA can be easily used by Delta to form a real competitor to American in Miami, dubbed the MCA (Miami Connection Alliance). The added passenger base from no-frill city-pairs can fill Delta/Latam metal into South America/Carribbean, with key premium domestic markets still offered by future Delta metal expansion (mainly A321, A220). Now I know this is a wild proposal, but I think it can work strategically and get approved:

1) Although Delta is waiting for Latam JV approval and pandemic recovery, it seems it lost some steam on Miami plans and/or has been greatly delayed/curtailed. But time is money. American has grown In Miami since the announcement of the Delta/Latam JV. Meanwhile, Spirit plans to launch some 30 new cities there. I don't think NK will ever leave since Miami has been an underutilized one-horse town for some time and I personally think it will stir the pot there into the future. It seems an uphill battle for Delta to grow domestically with such an onslaught of new flights. Miami is a key origin and destination to Latin America, so rather than siphon connecting Latin/South American traffic from what Atlanta can achieve more efficiently, it may behoove Delta to tap into a connecting passenger base from a variety of sources (F9/NK) into Miami to help fill point-to-point Delta/Latam flights originating and ending in Miami to and from key South American cities.
2) Such proposal would be agreed between Delta and F9/NK prior to AA/B6 NEA approval so the DOJ will understand that approving one deal for one group of legacy/LCC will set precedent for like-minded strategic responses. But If NEA is not approved, it won't necessarily derail the MCA.
3) F9/NK can be more confident in aligning (albeit in a limited market to start) with a strong carrier (Delta) in a key domestic market (Miami in particular onward to Latin America, with perhaps other gateways added in the future into Europe, Asia), while providing NK shareholders a solid potential financial upside/security alternative to B6's hostile takeover, especially considering B6 cannot offer any meaningful international connectivity that a Delta partnership can most certainly evolve into.
4) No equity involved, F9/NK stays independent, Delta remains independent, Atlanta remains the key Delta connecting hub to South America harnessing the strength of Latam, but Delta gets a little help from some domestic friends in Miami to create a viable/vibrant second choice in the Miami local market and onward into Latin America.
5) Other initiatives could be frequent flyer programs, joint maintenance, co-location of terminal space
6) The airline industry may be evolving into legacies using the LCC modeled carriers as their adjunct economy seating segmentation. Sounds strange, but I think AA has started this by using JetBlue (even though they are more upscale), and if an F9/NK merger improves the service and reliability of a newly merged entity it may become more approachable to legacy partnership. Perhaps Delta's continued/expanded partnership I propose here would be contingent on reliable service levels, starting in Miami.

I propose Delta take advantage of this now to be a guiding hand in providing an alternative to it's archival's hostile takeover.
What are other alternatives?
Last edited by TYWoolman on Wed May 18, 2022 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
bluecrew
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover ???

Wed May 18, 2022 7:21 am

I don't think Delta has any interest in tarnishing the "premium domestic travel" brand that it's created by getting anywhere near F9/NK, and for that matter, even any LCC.

The definition of anathema to Delta would be selling a codeshared domestic leg in the US on Delta ticket stock, and the passengers get there and get dinged for carryons and end up on Frontier.

Delta is fiercely protective of their brand and that's the reason it's probably the best regarded brand in business and leisure travel in the US. They would laugh at this.

Not to mention, it involves them with a more unionized airline with really nasty labor disputes... would put them in the unfortunate position of saying to the flight attendants "unions are good for Frontier, our lesser, but don't sign one here at Delta"
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover ???

Wed May 18, 2022 7:37 am

bluecrew wrote:
I don't think Delta has any interest in tarnishing the "premium domestic travel" brand that it's created by getting anywhere near F9/NK, and for that matter, even any LCC.

The definition of anathema to Delta would be selling a codeshared domestic leg in the US on Delta ticket stock, and the passengers get there and get dinged for carryons and end up on Frontier.

Delta is fiercely protective of their brand and that's the reason it's probably the best regarded brand in business and leisure travel in the US. They would laugh at this.

Not to mention, it involves them with a more unionized airline with really nasty labor disputes... would put them in the unfortunate position of saying to the flight attendants "unions are good for Frontier, our lesser, but don't sign one here at Delta"


I do agree with you in principle. But I still think there is some validity to it as a form of Delta response to B6 ambition, with due respect to B6. I am not opposed to NEA, but only if approval is treated like a merger. But if NEA sails through regulatory muster, anything is game. But Delta would have to act now, preemptively, as an alternative to the B6's hostile takeover of NK, so it can respond aptly to the NEA while at same time curtailing an expanded, brilliant B6.
 
Thomaas
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover ???

Wed May 18, 2022 9:57 am

I’m a little puzzled as to why you’d think an airline 3 times the size of JetBlue would be any likelier to succeed at passing regulatory approval to buy Spirit. DL itself has more slots at LGA than AA/B6. It’s very unlikely that if the NEA is truly an area of concern for the Spirit board that they would even look at such an offer.
 
dfwfanboy
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover ???

Wed May 18, 2022 10:29 am

I think you should look at NK/F9’s destination frequency and gates in Miami before assuming their presence in Miami is anything to covet or of any use to delta against AA in Miami.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover ???

Wed May 18, 2022 12:51 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
I am not opposed to NEA, but only if approval is treated like a merger. But if NEA sails through regulatory muster, anything is game. But Delta would have to act now, preemptively, as an alternative to the B6's hostile takeover of NK, so it can respond aptly to the NEA while at same time curtailing an expanded, brilliant B6.


What the heck are you talking about? NEA already got approved - in the last two weeks of the Trump admin. Now the DOJ is suing to undo it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/21/us-set- ... ot%20fares.

DL is big in NYC, and growing in BOS. It has the resources to respond 'aptly' without a merger or alliance.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 1:09 pm

There is no alternative to the mergers needing to stay outside of the Big 4. The Big 4 are off the table for further mergers. You could try to talk about WN, but I really don't think they are on the table.

Regulators are realizing, especially in tech but also in airlines, that anti-trust law is a thing, and there is a reason why. It was just overlooked for 20 years, due to savvy political messaging by tech and airlines during the 2000-2020 period (we are growing to help our customers thrive, etc).

But mergers that increase market power, and are likely to raise yields, are effectively illegal. Mergers that only result in cost efficiencies, but not pricing power, are legal.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 1:35 pm

Any move by Delta would NOT be a merger by any stretch of the imagination, nor any slots rationalization in slot-controlled airports like the NEA. The partnership I am envisioning between Delta and a merged F6/NK would provide F6/NK an alternative to growth proposed by B6's hostile takeover and the international reach NK could have via AA in the NEA. It would also keep F6 in the game with NK should shareholders think a Delta "arrangement" would be more advantageous. A "Miami Connection Alliance" would be more of a passenger catchment alliance for point to point Miami-Central/South American flights on Delta metal and Latam metal, given that a F9/NK domestic reach in frequency can only be supported by a ULCC imo. It would provide F9/NK the ability to book its passengers onto Delta/Latam through Miami fueling growth for it there (providing markets a non-stop alternative to AA where Delta may not want to put its resources and focus), providing Delta a push to fill NEW Miami centric international flights southbound against AA, while keeping B6 at bay and an "answer" to AA with their Seattle, Boston and NYC arrangements (AS and B6).
 
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Polot
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 1:58 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
Any move by Delta would NOT be a merger by any stretch of the imagination, nor any slots rationalization in slot-controlled airports like the NEA. The partnership I am envisioning between Delta and a merged F6/NK would provide F6/NK an alternative to growth proposed by B6's hostile takeover and the international reach NK could have via AA in the NEA. It would also keep F6 in the game with NK should shareholders think a Delta "arrangement" would be more advantageous. A "Miami Connection Alliance" would be more of a passenger catchment alliance for point to point Miami-Central/South American flights on Delta metal and Latam metal, given that a F9/NK domestic reach in frequency can only be supported by a ULCC imo. It would provide F9/NK the ability to book its passengers onto Delta/Latam through Miami fueling growth for it there (providing markets a non-stop alternative to AA where Delta may not want to put its resources and focus), providing Delta a push to fill NEW Miami centric international flights southbound against AA, while keeping B6 at bay and an "answer" to AA with their Seattle, Boston and NYC arrangements (AS and B6).

DL and NK/F9’s product experience is way too different for Delta to ever want to do anything like that. It would end up hurting their brand as people book their flights through Delta then suddenly find themselves squeezed in a NK/F9 plane being nickled and dimed left and right…blaming DL.

That’s not the case with B6/AA (in fact B6 is a step up from most of AA’s domestic Y experience) or AA/AS.
 
miami123
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 2:06 pm

For now I don't see any mergers within the Big 4. But if oil continues to soar it becomes the perfect excuse of getting around regulatory concern.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 2:22 pm

Polot wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Any move by Delta would NOT be a merger by any stretch of the imagination, nor any slots rationalization in slot-controlled airports like the NEA. The partnership I am envisioning between Delta and a merged F6/NK would provide F6/NK an alternative to growth proposed by B6's hostile takeover and the international reach NK could have via AA in the NEA. It would also keep F6 in the game with NK should shareholders think a Delta "arrangement" would be more advantageous. A "Miami Connection Alliance" would be more of a passenger catchment alliance for point to point Miami-Central/South American flights on Delta metal and Latam metal, given that a F9/NK domestic reach in frequency can only be supported by a ULCC imo. It would provide F9/NK the ability to book its passengers onto Delta/Latam through Miami fueling growth for it there (providing markets a non-stop alternative to AA where Delta may not want to put its resources and focus), providing Delta a push to fill NEW Miami centric international flights southbound against AA, while keeping B6 at bay and an "answer" to AA with their Seattle, Boston and NYC arrangements (AS and B6).

DL and NK/F9’s product experience is way too different for Delta to ever want to do anything like that. It would end up hurting their brand as people book their flights through Delta then suddenly find themselves squeezed in a NK/F9 plane being nickled and dimed left and right…blaming DL.

That’s not the case with B6/AA (in fact B6 is a step up from most of AA’s domestic Y experience) or AA/AS.


Totally agree with you. But there is a creative solution (all in the context of this F9, NK, B6 courtship mania). Spirit would have the ability to book onto Delta/Latam metal through Miami (or other future gateway) helping fill Delta Metal from Miami southward (in this instance), and any connecting passenger from Delta/Latam point of sale would go through Atlanta on Delta. Delta doesn't even have to touch F9/NK metal until service standards improve. Not sure how viable that would be, but the strategic significance is that it keeps B6 away from NK while providing Delta/Latam a boost in the Miami market (perhaps even added Miami-centric frequent flyers into the Delta/Latam JV system), and provides F9/NK an international system in which it can offer their own frequent flyers. It's not without complications, but it's a Delta response aside from sitting this out, and allows F9/NK to stir Miami to support Miami point of sale into Latin America on an expanded Delta/Latam metal network, without cannabalizing Atlanta flow.
 
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Polot
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 2:30 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
Polot wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Any move by Delta would NOT be a merger by any stretch of the imagination, nor any slots rationalization in slot-controlled airports like the NEA. The partnership I am envisioning between Delta and a merged F6/NK would provide F6/NK an alternative to growth proposed by B6's hostile takeover and the international reach NK could have via AA in the NEA. It would also keep F6 in the game with NK should shareholders think a Delta "arrangement" would be more advantageous. A "Miami Connection Alliance" would be more of a passenger catchment alliance for point to point Miami-Central/South American flights on Delta metal and Latam metal, given that a F9/NK domestic reach in frequency can only be supported by a ULCC imo. It would provide F9/NK the ability to book its passengers onto Delta/Latam through Miami fueling growth for it there (providing markets a non-stop alternative to AA where Delta may not want to put its resources and focus), providing Delta a push to fill NEW Miami centric international flights southbound against AA, while keeping B6 at bay and an "answer" to AA with their Seattle, Boston and NYC arrangements (AS and B6).

DL and NK/F9’s product experience is way too different for Delta to ever want to do anything like that. It would end up hurting their brand as people book their flights through Delta then suddenly find themselves squeezed in a NK/F9 plane being nickled and dimed left and right…blaming DL.

That’s not the case with B6/AA (in fact B6 is a step up from most of AA’s domestic Y experience) or AA/AS.


Totally agree with you. But there is a creative solution (all in the context of this F9, NK, B6 courtship mania). Spirit would have the ability to book onto Delta/Latam metal through Miami (or other future gateway) helping fill Delta Metal from Miami southward (in this instance), and any connecting passenger from Delta/Latam point of sale would go through Atlanta on Delta. Delta doesn't even have to touch F9/NK metal until service standards improve. Not sure how viable that would be, but the strategic significance is that it keeps B6 away from NK while providing Delta/Latam a boost in the Miami market (perhaps even added Miami-centric frequent flyers into the Delta/Latam JV system), and provides F9/NK an international system in which it can offer their own frequent flyers. It's not without complications, but it's a Delta response aside from sitting this out, and allows F9/NK to stir Miami to support Miami point of sale into Latin America on an expanded Delta/Latam metal network, without cannabalizing Atlanta flow.

There is no incentive for F9/NK to agree to such a deal in that scenario. Whats the point of expanding international reach for your customers if it is just helping a competitor (DL) while the competitor is literally giving you nothing back in return? There is no evidence to suggest F9 or NK are struggling to fill planes in South Florida.

Also most of F9/NK’s customers are just loyal because of the price (it’s certainly not their customer service). F9/NK wouldn’t be able to offer DL’s flights any cheaper than DL can (DL needs to make money off of flying the pax and is not going to purposely undercut themselves) which means they are likely to book directly with DL in the first place (or if connecting connect in ATL like DL/LATAM pax).
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 2:57 pm

Polot wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Polot wrote:
DL and NK/F9’s product experience is way too different for Delta to ever want to do anything like that. It would end up hurting their brand as people book their flights through Delta then suddenly find themselves squeezed in a NK/F9 plane being nickled and dimed left and right…blaming DL.

That’s not the case with B6/AA (in fact B6 is a step up from most of AA’s domestic Y experience) or AA/AS.


Totally agree with you. But there is a creative solution (all in the context of this F9, NK, B6 courtship mania). Spirit would have the ability to book onto Delta/Latam metal through Miami (or other future gateway) helping fill Delta Metal from Miami southward (in this instance), and any connecting passenger from Delta/Latam point of sale would go through Atlanta on Delta. Delta doesn't even have to touch F9/NK metal until service standards improve. Not sure how viable that would be, but the strategic significance is that it keeps B6 away from NK while providing Delta/Latam a boost in the Miami market (perhaps even added Miami-centric frequent flyers into the Delta/Latam JV system), and provides F9/NK an international system in which it can offer their own frequent flyers. It's not without complications, but it's a Delta response aside from sitting this out, and allows F9/NK to stir Miami to support Miami point of sale into Latin America on an expanded Delta/Latam metal network, without cannabalizing Atlanta flow.

There is no incentive for F9/NK to agree to such a deal in that scenario. Whats the point of expanding international reach for your customers if it is just helping a competitor (DL) while the competitor is literally giving you nothing back in return? There is no evidence to suggest F9 or NK are struggling to fill planes in South Florida.

Also most of F9/NK’s customers are just loyal because of the price (it’s certainly not their customer service). F9/NK wouldn’t be able to offer DL’s flights any cheaper than DL can (DL needs to make money off of flying the pax and is not going to purposely undercut themselves) which means they are likely to book directly with DL in the first place (or if connecting connect in ATL like DL/LATAM pax).


Well the incentive is what the alternative could bring: NK goes bye bye to the B6/AA partnership. Granted, what I propose holds more credence if F9/NK considers Miami a new home for expansion as then Delta would have the incentive to "partner" with them rather than fight the yields. Furthermore, F9/NK will not have the premium product nor aircraft nor international partner (Latam) on its own. So it provides F9/NK an alternative growth avenue in relation to B6's proposal, and brings Delta more passengers to launch Miami to South America on its own metal and expanded Latam metal. It's just an added benefit for Delta in the Miami-South American market against AA, even if only for the price-conscious passenger (as you suggest) that only F9/NK can generate/sustain better than Delta could. Premium trunk Miami domestic routes would still retain a Delta product should Delta premium point of sale be desired all the way, but that would flow through Atlanta more efficiently anyway. The partnership would just fill Delta international metal from Miami and provide F9/NK a new dynamic to consider now in relation to B6's proposal.
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 4:41 pm

If F9/NK is approved, I feel like B6 needs to clear it's throat, sheepishly and slowly mosey across the dance floor (country) and see if AS wants to dance? It doesn't solve their Midwest problem but it gives them some mass to build with. And they likely need to potentially swallow their pride and accept they won't be the survivor. AS seems perfectly willing, as do their shareholders, to stay independent.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 4:46 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
I find it hard to believe no other airlines are making a creative play for B6, F9 and NK at the moment. So I would like to propose a last minute creative push on the F9/NK side in my mind and my mind only: What if Delta "sweetens" the F9/NK deal via MOU on a strategic partnership with no equity involved restricted to the Miami market? All B6 arguments on the NEA can be easily used by Delta to form a real competitor to American in Miami, dubbed the MCA (Miami Connection Alliance). The added passenger base from no-frill city-pairs can fill Delta/Latam metal into South America/Carribbean, with key premium domestic markets still offered by future Delta metal expansion (mainly A321, A220). Now I know this is a wild proposal, but I think it can work strategically and get approved:

1) Although Delta is waiting for Latam JV approval and pandemic recovery, it seems it lost some steam on Miami plans and/or has been greatly delayed/curtailed. But time is money. American has grown In Miami since the announcement of the Delta/Latam JV. Meanwhile, Spirit plans to launch some 30 new cities there. I don't think NK will ever leave since Miami has been an underutilized one-horse town for some time and I personally think it will stir the pot there into the future. It seems an uphill battle for Delta to grow domestically with such an onslaught of new flights. Miami is a key origin and destination to Latin America, so rather than siphon connecting Latin/South American traffic from what Atlanta can achieve more efficiently, it may behoove Delta to tap into a connecting passenger base from a variety of sources (F9/NK) into Miami to help fill point-to-point Delta/Latam flights originating and ending in Miami to and from key South American cities.
2) Such proposal would be agreed between Delta and F9/NK prior to AA/B6 NEA approval so the DOJ will understand that approving one deal for one group of legacy/LCC will set precedent for like-minded strategic responses. But If NEA is not approved, it won't necessarily derail the MCA.
3) F9/NK can be more confident in aligning (albeit in a limited market to start) with a strong carrier (Delta) in a key domestic market (Miami in particular onward to Latin America, with perhaps other gateways added in the future into Europe, Asia), while providing NK shareholders a solid potential financial upside/security alternative to B6's hostile takeover, especially considering B6 cannot offer any meaningful international connectivity that a Delta partnership can most certainly evolve into.
4) No equity involved, F9/NK stays independent, Delta remains independent, Atlanta remains the key Delta connecting hub to South America harnessing the strength of Latam, but Delta gets a little help from some domestic friends in Miami to create a viable/vibrant second choice in the Miami local market and onward into Latin America.
5) Other initiatives could be frequent flyer programs, joint maintenance, co-location of terminal space
6) The airline industry may be evolving into legacies using the LCC modeled carriers as their adjunct economy seating segmentation. Sounds strange, but I think AA has started this by using JetBlue (even though they are more upscale), and if an F9/NK merger improves the service and reliability of a newly merged entity it may become more approachable to legacy partnership. Perhaps Delta's continued/expanded partnership I propose here would be contingent on reliable service levels, starting in Miami.

I propose Delta take advantage of this now to be a guiding hand in providing an alternative to it's archival's hostile takeover.
What are other alternatives?


There is a virtually zero (as near-zero as you can get) chance the government would allow DL to add 3-4% market share. UA/AA/DL are done growing through M&A in the US (although admittedly I was surprised the NEA was permitted, but we will see if that lasts). Also, DL is not going to partner with a ULCC while its primary focus is on driving premium revenue.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 4:56 pm

I am NOT proposing Delta merge with F9/NK or be involved with M&A. That is a GROSS mischaracterization of what I am saying. Strategic partnership, yes, in an area that can benefit from increased competition (Miami) while at same time providing NK shareholders (who favor or borderline favor F9) to continue/vote with the original merger course, seeing the upside to strategic Delta involvement on the international side (via a limited codeshare opportunity) as opposed to B6 that provides only limited international exposure (mostly via AA if the NEA is sustained). Delta can still drive all the premium revenue it wants. Miami being a different beast to Latin America can provide an opportunity for Delta to view F9/NK traffic into Miami as "found passenger revenue."
 
JFKalumni
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 8:17 pm

Year’s ago there was talk of UA buying B6. I’m surprised that has yet to be resurrected in this three company drama.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 8:38 pm

F9/NK/G4 Frontier - Allegiant - Spirit... because they all fly A320s.. (yeah I know Allegiant has the MAX on order... just poking fun.... it's always about the planes instead of the business for us aviation enthusiasts... but then of course B6 has A320s too)
 
N649DL
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 8:44 pm

JFKalumni wrote:
Year’s ago there was talk of UA buying B6. I’m surprised that has yet to be resurrected in this three company drama.


You read my mind, I was actually going to post something like this until I read it. I actually do think it would be a very interesting merger if UA & B6 merged as they would have "Mint", grasping of all three NYC Airports, B6 in Florida, and legacy UA hubs to work with. It could also blend in well from an IFE perspective that both use free DirecTV in some form on large fleets of aircraft and could dump a/c which are dated & aged (especially since UA promised installing AVOD on old jets last year.) That said, I doubt it would ever get approved.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 8:46 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
I am NOT proposing Delta merge with F9/NK or be involved with M&A. That is a GROSS mischaracterization of what I am saying. Strategic partnership, yes, in an area that can benefit from increased competition (Miami) while at same time providing NK shareholders (who favor or borderline favor F9) to continue/vote with the original merger course, seeing the upside to strategic Delta involvement on the international side (via a limited codeshare opportunity) as opposed to B6 that provides only limited international exposure (mostly via AA if the NEA is sustained). Delta can still drive all the premium revenue it wants. Miami being a different beast to Latin America can provide an opportunity for Delta to view F9/NK traffic into Miami as "found passenger revenue."


"Strategic partnership" falls under the broad umbrella of M&A and it would be legally reviewed by the government (see NEA). You say DL can drive all the premium revenue it wants...which is traffic that is not on F9/NK. People aren't going to fly F9/NK to Miami to jump on a DL flight to South America in Delta One.
 
JFKalumni
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 9:21 pm

N649DL wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:
Year’s ago there was talk of UA buying B6. I’m surprised that has yet to be resurrected in this three company drama.


You read my mind, I was actually going to post something like this until I read it. I actually do think it would be a very interesting merger if UA & B6 merged as they would have "Mint", grasping of all three NYC Airports, B6 in Florida, and legacy UA hubs to work with. It could also blend in well from an IFE perspective that both use free DirecTV in some form on large fleets of aircraft and could dump a/c which are dated & aged (especially since UA promised installing AVOD on old jets last year.) That said, I doubt it would ever get approved.


Absolutely.

It would accelerate everything. Goodbye 757’s, 737-7, 737-8 (except the SFP and Max) A319’s and A320’s (Sub UA). Instantly up-gaged the fleet with A321’s and A220’s, common IAE engines, potential creation of a southeastern hub, more Mint studio exposure to already established European destinations such as EWR- KEF, BER, CPH, GLA, EDI, OPO, AMS, DUB, SNN, BHX, ARN.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 10:43 pm

The alternative is NK rejecting both offers and remaining independent.
 
Josh76040
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 11:01 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
I find it hard to believe no other airlines are making a creative play for B6, F9 and NK at the moment. So I would like to propose a last minute creative push on the F9/NK side in my mind and my mind only: What if Delta "sweetens" the F9/NK deal via MOU on a strategic partnership with no equity involved restricted to the Miami market? All B6 arguments on the NEA can be easily used by Delta to form a real competitor to American in Miami, dubbed the MCA (Miami Connection Alliance). The added passenger base from no-frill city-pairs can fill Delta/Latam metal into South America/Carribbean, with key premium domestic markets still offered by future Delta metal expansion (mainly A321, A220). Now I know this is a wild proposal, but I think it can work strategically and get approved:

1) Although Delta is waiting for Latam JV approval and pandemic recovery, it seems it lost some steam on Miami plans and/or has been greatly delayed/curtailed. But time is money. American has grown In Miami since the announcement of the Delta/Latam JV. Meanwhile, Spirit plans to launch some 30 new cities there. I don't think NK will ever leave since Miami has been an underutilized one-horse town for some time and I personally think it will stir the pot there into the future. It seems an uphill battle for Delta to grow domestically with such an onslaught of new flights. Miami is a key origin and destination to Latin America, so rather than siphon connecting Latin/South American traffic from what Atlanta can achieve more efficiently, it may behoove Delta to tap into a connecting passenger base from a variety of sources (F9/NK) into Miami to help fill point-to-point Delta/Latam flights originating and ending in Miami to and from key South American cities.
2) Such proposal would be agreed between Delta and F9/NK prior to AA/B6 NEA approval so the DOJ will understand that approving one deal for one group of legacy/LCC will set precedent for like-minded strategic responses. But If NEA is not approved, it won't necessarily derail the MCA.
3) F9/NK can be more confident in aligning (albeit in a limited market to start) with a strong carrier (Delta) in a key domestic market (Miami in particular onward to Latin America, with perhaps other gateways added in the future into Europe, Asia), while providing NK shareholders a solid potential financial upside/security alternative to B6's hostile takeover, especially considering B6 cannot offer any meaningful international connectivity that a Delta partnership can most certainly evolve into.
4) No equity involved, F9/NK stays independent, Delta remains independent, Atlanta remains the key Delta connecting hub to South America harnessing the strength of Latam, but Delta gets a little help from some domestic friends in Miami to create a viable/vibrant second choice in the Miami local market and onward into Latin America.
5) Other initiatives could be frequent flyer programs, joint maintenance, co-location of terminal space
6) The airline industry may be evolving into legacies using the LCC modeled carriers as their adjunct economy seating segmentation. Sounds strange, but I think AA has started this by using JetBlue (even though they are more upscale), and if an F9/NK merger improves the service and reliability of a newly merged entity it may become more approachable to legacy partnership. Perhaps Delta's continued/expanded partnership I propose here would be contingent on reliable service levels, starting in Miami.

I propose Delta take advantage of this now to be a guiding hand in providing an alternative to it's archival's hostile takeover.
What are other alternatives?



Not happening. Period.

Next!
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 908
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Wed May 18, 2022 11:19 pm

Yes, another power swoops in and takes over B6.
 
TYWoolman
Topic Author
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 3:14 am

jbs2886 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
I am NOT proposing Delta merge with F9/NK or be involved with M&A. That is a GROSS mischaracterization of what I am saying. Strategic partnership, yes, in an area that can benefit from increased competition (Miami) while at same time providing NK shareholders (who favor or borderline favor F9) to continue/vote with the original merger course, seeing the upside to strategic Delta involvement on the international side (via a limited codeshare opportunity) as opposed to B6 that provides only limited international exposure (mostly via AA if the NEA is sustained). Delta can still drive all the premium revenue it wants. Miami being a different beast to Latin America can provide an opportunity for Delta to view F9/NK traffic into Miami as "found passenger revenue."


"Strategic partnership" falls under the broad umbrella of M&A and it would be legally reviewed by the government (see NEA). You say DL can drive all the premium revenue it wants...which is traffic that is not on F9/NK. People aren't going to fly F9/NK to Miami to jump on a DL flight to South America in Delta One.


The NEA is about fleet/route rationalization and borrowing slots. If NEA gets approved, so would what I propose.
Delta can have premium domestic traffic into Miami as an alternative, but Atlanta would remain the connecting complex while Miami would be more point of sale. Therefore, the majority of "premium driving" on Miami/Latin American routes would be from the local Miami point of sale driven by Latam as well as new Delta Miami marketing initiatives. F9/NK would provide extra revenue for Delta to support the point to point initiatives (Miami to Southern Hemisphere) as F9/NK passenger feed can fill Delta basic economy by default unless customers upgrade at the F9/NK point of sale side.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 3:34 am

TYWoolman wrote:
Delta can have premium domestic traffic into Miami as an alternative, but Atlanta would remain the connecting complex while Miami would be more point of sale. Therefore, the majority of "premium driving" on Miami/Latin American routes would be from the local Miami point of sale driven by Latam as well as new Delta Miami marketing initiatives. F9/NK would provide extra revenue for Delta to support the point to point initiatives (Miami to Southern Hemisphere) as F9/NK passenger feed can fill Delta basic economy by default unless customers upgrade at the F9/NK point of sale side.


I know you’re insistent on this, and I’m sure that if someone at Delta who could make the decision to research and model this had the idea brought to them they’d promptly dismiss it.

Delta is very protective of their brand. Look how they’ve pushed their regionals to have a better product (first class in more planes) and how they’ve consistently messaged their brand. Putting their passengers on a Delta coded, Spirit operated flight would promptly blow up any of their branding. (Even with the cheap economy they protect their brand.)

They’re also not going to put their code on a Spirit flight because that runs afoul of the pilot’s scope agreement, and they’re just now getting to a bit of labor peace with a new agreement governing flying by international partners.

They might entertain an interline agreement, but they’re not going to sell Spirit operated flights at Delta.com, and they might not even want to sell a Spirit operated flight on their ticket stock. (Not sure if NK would like to either, though isn’t there an airline in Germany that’ll sell tickets like that around the world?)

This idea, while interesting, is a non-starter from many perspectives.
 
Wneast
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 3:37 am

A cry to WN to buy them lol.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 5:28 am

USAirKid wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Delta can have premium domestic traffic into Miami as an alternative, but Atlanta would remain the connecting complex while Miami would be more point of sale. Therefore, the majority of "premium driving" on Miami/Latin American routes would be from the local Miami point of sale driven by Latam as well as new Delta Miami marketing initiatives. F9/NK would provide extra revenue for Delta to support the point to point initiatives (Miami to Southern Hemisphere) as F9/NK passenger feed can fill Delta basic economy by default unless customers upgrade at the F9/NK point of sale side.


I know you’re insistent on this, and I’m sure that if someone at Delta who could make the decision to research and model this had the idea brought to them they’d promptly dismiss it.

Delta is very protective of their brand. Look how they’ve pushed their regionals to have a better product (first class in more planes) and how they’ve consistently messaged their brand. Putting their passengers on a Delta coded, Spirit operated flight would promptly blow up any of their branding. (Even with the cheap economy they protect their brand.)

They’re also not going to put their code on a Spirit flight because that runs afoul of the pilot’s scope agreement, and they’re just now getting to a bit of labor peace with a new agreement governing flying by international partners.

They might entertain an interline agreement, but they’re not going to sell Spirit operated flights at Delta.com, and they might not even want to sell a Spirit operated flight on their ticket stock. (Not sure if NK would like to either, though isn’t there an airline in Germany that’ll sell tickets like that around the world?)

This idea, while interesting, is a non-starter from many perspectives.


I hear you on branding. And do agree. It is out of the box for sure but I propose it relative to Delta doing nothing: NK bought by B6 and more traffic flows extended to AA. In addition, I was not advocating Delta marketing F9/NK flights per se but rather an arrangement where Delta benefits from added traffic (possibly an exclusive interline agreement in Miami as you suggest) by a newly formed F9/NK entity (not NK by itself) exclusive to the Miami market, whereby Delta would not reciprocate (that would cannibalize Atlanta connections as mentioned in initial thread). So no scope issues. Delta benefits by more passengers onto newly launched Miami international routes head to head with AA. The benefit to a F9/NK entity would be using a Delta limited exclusive yet-undefined "partnership" as an initial driver on a clear alternative to B6 overtures to facilitate and consummate the F9 takeover of NK, that is, should the NK shareholders find B6 as the superior strategic partner (even though B6 lacks international depth that only Delta can tout to provide.) B6 wouldn't be in a position to tout AA's international reach, because it would draw AA into the B6 merger proposal. I'm for Delta getting creative on this chess board!
 
strangeplanes
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 6:14 am

TYWoolman wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Delta can have premium domestic traffic into Miami as an alternative, but Atlanta would remain the connecting complex while Miami would be more point of sale. Therefore, the majority of "premium driving" on Miami/Latin American routes would be from the local Miami point of sale driven by Latam as well as new Delta Miami marketing initiatives. F9/NK would provide extra revenue for Delta to support the point to point initiatives (Miami to Southern Hemisphere) as F9/NK passenger feed can fill Delta basic economy by default unless customers upgrade at the F9/NK point of sale side.


I know you’re insistent on this, and I’m sure that if someone at Delta who could make the decision to research and model this had the idea brought to them they’d promptly dismiss it.

Delta is very protective of their brand. Look how they’ve pushed their regionals to have a better product (first class in more planes) and how they’ve consistently messaged their brand. Putting their passengers on a Delta coded, Spirit operated flight would promptly blow up any of their branding. (Even with the cheap economy they protect their brand.)

They’re also not going to put their code on a Spirit flight because that runs afoul of the pilot’s scope agreement, and they’re just now getting to a bit of labor peace with a new agreement governing flying by international partners.

They might entertain an interline agreement, but they’re not going to sell Spirit operated flights at Delta.com, and they might not even want to sell a Spirit operated flight on their ticket stock. (Not sure if NK would like to either, though isn’t there an airline in Germany that’ll sell tickets like that around the world?)

This idea, while interesting, is a non-starter from many perspectives.


I hear you on branding. And do agree. It is out of the box for sure but I propose it relative to Delta doing nothing: NK bought by B6 and more traffic flows extended to AA. In addition, I was not advocating Delta marketing F9/NK flights per se but rather an arrangement where Delta benefits from added traffic (possibly an exclusive interline agreement in Miami as you suggest) by a newly formed F9/NK entity (not NK by itself) exclusive to the Miami market, whereby Delta would not reciprocate (that would cannibalize Atlanta connections as mentioned in initial thread). So no scope issues. Delta benefits by more passengers onto newly launched Miami international routes head to head with AA. The benefit to a F9/NK entity would be using a Delta limited exclusive yet-undefined "partnership" as an initial driver on a clear alternative to B6 overtures to facilitate and consummate the F9 takeover of NK, that is, should the NK shareholders find B6 as the superior strategic partner (even though B6 lacks international depth that only Delta can tout to provide.) B6 wouldn't be in a position to tout AA's international reach, because it would draw AA into the B6 merger proposal. I'm for Delta getting creative on this chess board!


Delta is better off if revenues are below operating costs or the brand value is reduced. Spirit's self-described "value" is fares to Carribean/LATAM so low they can connect families who otherwise wouldn't be able to travel. Fares that low aren't going to pay for a seat on a Delta plane


Delta: Premium Service at Premium Prices
Spirit: Connecting families and friends in LATAM who would not otherwise afford to visit each other
 
USAirKid
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 6:14 am

TYWoolman wrote:
The benefit to a F9/NK entity would be using a Delta limited exclusive yet-undefined "partnership" as an initial driver on a clear alternative to B6 overtures to facilitate and consummate the F9 takeover of NK, that is, should the NK shareholders find B6 as the superior strategic partner (even though B6 lacks international depth that only Delta can tout to provide.) B6 wouldn't be in a position to tout AA's international reach, because it would draw AA into the B6 merger proposal. I'm for Delta getting creative on this chess board!


So let me get this right, you’re suggesting that this would be a defense by NK/F9 to the B6 takeover attempt? It’s really last minute as the vote by NK’s shareholders is in a month or so. It’s not in NK&F9’s interest to do this, since it’d look desperate to shareholders at a moment they want to look confident in their strategy. “This combination is so great we’re going to send passengers onto our competitor that has a much higher level of service!”

It also brings up the question, why would a combined NK/F9 want to send passengers to DL? What do they gain over flying to those destinations themselves?
 
TYWoolman
Topic Author
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 7:09 am

USAirKid wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
The benefit to a F9/NK entity would be using a Delta limited exclusive yet-undefined "partnership" as an initial driver on a clear alternative to B6 overtures to facilitate and consummate the F9 takeover of NK, that is, should the NK shareholders find B6 as the superior strategic partner (even though B6 lacks international depth that only Delta can tout to provide.) B6 wouldn't be in a position to tout AA's international reach, because it would draw AA into the B6 merger proposal. I'm for Delta getting creative on this chess board!


So let me get this right, you’re suggesting that this would be a defense by NK/F9 to the B6 takeover attempt? It’s really last minute as the vote by NK’s shareholders is in a month or so. It’s not in NK&F9’s interest to do this, since it’d look desperate to shareholders at a moment they want to look confident in their strategy. “This combination is so great we’re going to send passengers onto our competitor that has a much higher level of service!”

It also brings up the question, why would a combined NK/F9 want to send passengers to DL? What do they gain over flying to those destinations themselves?


I am suggesting that, yes, with added benefits. The fact is that the only alternative to F9 is B6 who has been silent on any international offerings. That is a glaring hole in their proposed plan for growth post merger (including F9's proposal for that matter). Obviously B6 mentioning AA's international reach via NEA would be a non-starter because it would play into NK's anti-competitive stance. Delta can play into this big time. Bringing in Delta in Miami would provide F9/NK a differentiator to B6's inferior network breadth and the only way to gain that international breadth without regulator alarms (considering NEA) is Delta proposing a very limited Miami partnership should F9 succeed in being the buyer. A new F9/NK entity stands to gain vicariously: aircraft capable of deep South America (Delta metal), international limited partnership (Latam), an ally (Delta) in Miami against incumbent AA, a means for its passengers to upgrade to different class product internationally out of Miami on Delta/Latam metal (in line with AA offerings), fueled domestic growth refueling Delta's/Latam's Miami-centric international expansion.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 8:23 am

TYWoolman wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
So let me get this right, you’re suggesting that this would be a defense by NK/F9 to the B6 takeover attempt?


I am suggesting that, yes, with added benefits.



This is a crazy thing to suggest given where we are in the NK/F9 merger process.

Currently ballots have been sent to shareholders for a June 10th meeting. There are three items that shareholders will be voting on:
Proposal No. 1 — Merger Proposal - (This is a binding vote.)
Proposal No. 2 — Compensation Proposal - (This is an advisory vote on golden parachutes for Spirit executives.)
Proposal No. 3 — Adjournment Proposal - (This is a procedural vote.)

From: https://sec.report/Document/0001193125- ... m300541_19

NK/F9 want proposals 1 & 2 to pass, I'm not sure they care about 3, although it not passing may result in a long meeting.

If Proposal No. 1 passes, the merger is between NK/F9 is approved. There really isn't anything B6 can do at that point.

Given that we're now 22 days away from that vote, shareholders have the information that they'll use to evaluate and make their decision. For F9/NK/DL to be announcing something like the MIA partnership you suggest, at this moment makes all of them look incompetent for different reasons and will either have no effect or cause shareholders to lose trust in the F9/NK leadership, vote against the proposal and just take the money that B6 is offering, because management would be demonstrated to be idiots.

So a even if a DL/NK/F9 partnership was an excellent idea to fend off B6, it is just too late, the bell is currently being rung on shareholder vote.

(Random aside, the merger agreement is between Spirit, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. and Top Gun Acquisition Corp. (Top Gun is a subsidiary of Frontier, and it'll be merged with and into Spirit upon completion of the merger.))
 
bluecrew
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 9:15 am

TYWoolman wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
The benefit to a F9/NK entity would be using a Delta limited exclusive yet-undefined "partnership" as an initial driver on a clear alternative to B6 overtures to facilitate and consummate the F9 takeover of NK, that is, should the NK shareholders find B6 as the superior strategic partner (even though B6 lacks international depth that only Delta can tout to provide.) B6 wouldn't be in a position to tout AA's international reach, because it would draw AA into the B6 merger proposal. I'm for Delta getting creative on this chess board!


So let me get this right, you’re suggesting that this would be a defense by NK/F9 to the B6 takeover attempt? It’s really last minute as the vote by NK’s shareholders is in a month or so. It’s not in NK&F9’s interest to do this, since it’d look desperate to shareholders at a moment they want to look confident in their strategy. “This combination is so great we’re going to send passengers onto our competitor that has a much higher level of service!”

It also brings up the question, why would a combined NK/F9 want to send passengers to DL? What do they gain over flying to those destinations themselves?


I am suggesting that, yes, with added benefits. The fact is that the only alternative to F9 is B6 who has been silent on any international offerings. That is a glaring hole in their proposed plan for growth post merger (including F9's proposal for that matter). Obviously B6 mentioning AA's international reach via NEA would be a non-starter because it would play into NK's anti-competitive stance. Delta can play into this big time. Bringing in Delta in Miami would provide F9/NK a differentiator to B6's inferior network breadth and the only way to gain that international breadth without regulator alarms (considering NEA) is Delta proposing a very limited Miami partnership should F9 succeed in being the buyer. A new F9/NK entity stands to gain vicariously: aircraft capable of deep South America (Delta metal), international limited partnership (Latam), an ally (Delta) in Miami against incumbent AA, a means for its passengers to upgrade to different class product internationally out of Miami on Delta/Latam metal (in line with AA offerings), fueled domestic growth refueling Delta's/Latam's Miami-centric international expansion.

Man... you are so deeply in the ether, I wonder if you're coming out.

DL isn't committed to a MIA expansion... they serve their hubs. Their JV partner nearly went out of business last year, and is serving their hubs. Maybe you'll see some P2P flying, but DL is hardly committed to some mission of restoring the Pan Am Miami hub. Sure, they have a lot of frequency and they run 752's on 2 hour flights to help keep up with the volume, but MIA isn't a real target for them.

The whole Delta model has always been around getting to and getting through Atlanta. If you're going to Asia, Europe, or South America, you can get there with one stop through Atlanta. Miami is a distraction, if LATAM ever gets to the point of being able to sustain growth, maybe that will change (slightly).

AA is feeling the pain of competitors in South Florida, and has been since about 2005. The days of the AA MIA fortress hub, serving everywhere in the Carribbean with no meaningful competition are long gone. B6 and NK in FLL have taken a sizeable chunk of MIA/FLL revenue to LatAm, and F9 to a lesser extent out of MIA, and the airports are essentially interchangeable for those in Broward and Dade Counties unless they are on the extreme north or south ends.

Delta has spent nearly 15 years building the best brand for business and leisure travel out there. Is it the most amazing experience? No. But they've delivered excellent, dedicated service, a good product onboard, and good on-time numbers; and the important part is that it is extremely consistent. The second someone buys DL8949 MIA-CLE on Frontier, that brand image is forever shattered for that customer.

It won't happen because they are fanatic about how their brand is perceived, and the success that has brought them. Delta isn't going to get in bed with a ULCC unless Franke wins the global lottery and comes up with enough billions to buy them.

This one is not only a pipe dream but one devoid of facts.
 
11C
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 11:49 am

TWFlyGuy wrote:
If F9/NK is approved, I feel like B6 needs to clear it's throat, sheepishly and slowly mosey across the dance floor (country) and see if AS wants to dance? It doesn't solve their Midwest problem but it gives them some mass to build with. And they likely need to potentially swallow their pride and accept they won't be the survivor. AS seems perfectly willing, as do their shareholders, to stay independent.


Agree wholeheartedly. And maybe this will be the catalyst, finally. Stop already about the mixed fleets, this is way bigger than that (in anticipation of that old argument from the forum).
 
TYWoolman
Topic Author
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 1:48 pm

Well, I stand by this alternative though too late as suggested above. But for the record, I was suggesting a Delta arrangement as a catalyst/supporting alternative for F9 to complete its takeover of NK should NK see more value in that international upside that B6's proposal blatantly lacked (due to their NEA/antitrust arrangement with AA preventing B6 to use international reach as a merger argument). Delta would have benefited by a newly formed F9/NK entity funneling passengers into Delta's point to point international Miami operation (which would not have nearly the city-pairs F9/NK can aptly sustain), but with NO Delta reciprocity upward into the F9/NK system. Delta point of sale domestically or internationally puts passengers on Delta metal, with connections through Atlanta. F9/NK will have benefited as the surviving merged entity (not a B6/NK), with some international upside through Delta. Delta would have benefited by stopping B6 from using NK assets to funnel passengers into the AA system.
 
N649DL
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 10:03 pm

JFKalumni wrote:
N649DL wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:
Year’s ago there was talk of UA buying B6. I’m surprised that has yet to be resurrected in this three company drama.


You read my mind, I was actually going to post something like this until I read it. I actually do think it would be a very interesting merger if UA & B6 merged as they would have "Mint", grasping of all three NYC Airports, B6 in Florida, and legacy UA hubs to work with. It could also blend in well from an IFE perspective that both use free DirecTV in some form on large fleets of aircraft and could dump a/c which are dated & aged (especially since UA promised installing AVOD on old jets last year.) That said, I doubt it would ever get approved.


Absolutely.

It would accelerate everything. Goodbye 757’s, 737-7, 737-8 (except the SFP and Max) A319’s and A320’s (Sub UA). Instantly up-gaged the fleet with A321’s and A220’s, common IAE engines, potential creation of a southeastern hub, more Mint studio exposure to already established European destinations such as EWR- KEF, BER, CPH, GLA, EDI, OPO, AMS, DUB, SNN, BHX, ARN.


Without a doubt this would be part of the strategy (should it ever happen.) But you'd have to figure in JFK with its proposed TATL routes as well and the retraction of the BOS Premium Transcon program. So I doubt the 757s would be totally gone in this scenario. I know it sounds ridiculous, but I really do think having B6 themed paint schemes on UA planes branded as "UNITED" would look pretty cool.

USAirKid wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
The benefit to a F9/NK entity would be using a Delta limited exclusive yet-undefined "partnership" as an initial driver on a clear alternative to B6 overtures to facilitate and consummate the F9 takeover of NK, that is, should the NK shareholders find B6 as the superior strategic partner (even though B6 lacks international depth that only Delta can tout to provide.) B6 wouldn't be in a position to tout AA's international reach, because it would draw AA into the B6 merger proposal. I'm for Delta getting creative on this chess board!


So let me get this right, you’re suggesting that this would be a defense by NK/F9 to the B6 takeover attempt? It’s really last minute as the vote by NK’s shareholders is in a month or so. It’s not in NK&F9’s interest to do this, since it’d look desperate to shareholders at a moment they want to look confident in their strategy. “This combination is so great we’re going to send passengers onto our competitor that has a much higher level of service!”

It also brings up the question, why would a combined NK/F9 want to send passengers to DL? What do they gain over flying to those destinations themselves?


I think one has to remember what happened in the 1980s with Texas Air swallowing up 4 airlines and USAir 3 to consolidate. An NK/F9/B6 merger is entirely possible but much like the past (Ahem, Texas Air in the 1980s) would probably be horrible for everyone involved. And I don't think Delta even wants to step into the kiddy pool to team up with any of these carriers right now.

Regarding MIA, Delta semi-tried to upgrade things out of there around 10 years ago with a non-stop to LAX, building a new SkyClub and I believe flying to CDG or LHR. Aside the club, none of these issues worked out and it's mostly a spoke. They tried the same thing at EWR around 2015 flying to LHR/CDG/AMS but none worked out (ironically, it seems EWR-RDU/BOS is though).
 
TexasAirCorp
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 10:28 pm

N649DL wrote:

I think one has to remember what happened in the 1980s with Texas Air swallowing up 4 airlines and USAir 3 to consolidate. An NK/F9/B6 merger is entirely possible but much like the past (Ahem, Texas Air in the 1980s) would probably be horrible for everyone involved. And I don't think Delta even wants to step into the kiddy pool to team up with any of these carriers right now.



To be fair, I’d be seriously impressed if NK/B6 or F9 made as much of a mess of merging ops as TAC did in 87. In theory, a merger of two (nearly) all Airbus operators both with pretty modern backend systems isn’t too complicated, compared to the job of merging a bunch of airlines destined for the scrap-heap with poorly trained staff and an ancient backend system. However, you do raise a good point; if B6 drag NK kicking and screaming into a ‘merger’, I doubt they’ll be much motivation to make it easy on NK’s end. You mention TAC, I fear a B6-NK merger may become like EA having its assets gradually moved over to CO, destroying any staff morale in the process. We all know how that ended.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Thu May 19, 2022 10:53 pm

TexasAirCorp wrote:
N649DL wrote:

I think one has to remember what happened in the 1980s with Texas Air swallowing up 4 airlines and USAir 3 to consolidate. An NK/F9/B6 merger is entirely possible but much like the past (Ahem, Texas Air in the 1980s) would probably be horrible for everyone involved. And I don't think Delta even wants to step into the kiddy pool to team up with any of these carriers right now.



To be fair, I’d be seriously impressed if NK/B6 or F9 made as much of a mess of merging ops as TAC did in 87. In theory, a merger of two (nearly) all Airbus operators both with pretty modern backend systems isn’t too complicated, compared to the job of merging a bunch of airlines destined for the scrap-heap with poorly trained staff and an ancient backend system. However, you do raise a good point; if B6 drag NK kicking and screaming into a ‘merger’, I doubt they’ll be much motivation to make it easy on NK’s end. You mention TAC, I fear a B6-NK merger may become like EA having its assets gradually moved over to CO, destroying any staff morale in the process. We all know how that ended.


In mergers, the problem isn't combining fleets -- lots of carriers have complex fleets with six or more types. It's not the systems integration - you can hire consultants for that. It's the labor, particularly when a merger brings more than one union to a craft, because people get fearful and territorial. And it's CEOs - see Parker (repeatedly) and Smisek -- too cheap to sweeten the deal to make the labor problems go away quickly so everybody can get on with actually operating the combined airline.
 
N649DL
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Fri May 20, 2022 9:22 pm

TexasAirCorp wrote:
N649DL wrote:

I think one has to remember what happened in the 1980s with Texas Air swallowing up 4 airlines and USAir 3 to consolidate. An NK/F9/B6 merger is entirely possible but much like the past (Ahem, Texas Air in the 1980s) would probably be horrible for everyone involved. And I don't think Delta even wants to step into the kiddy pool to team up with any of these carriers right now.



To be fair, I’d be seriously impressed if NK/B6 or F9 made as much of a mess of merging ops as TAC did in 87. In theory, a merger of two (nearly) all Airbus operators both with pretty modern backend systems isn’t too complicated, compared to the job of merging a bunch of airlines destined for the scrap-heap with poorly trained staff and an ancient backend system. However, you do raise a good point; if B6 drag NK kicking and screaming into a ‘merger’, I doubt they’ll be much motivation to make it easy on NK’s end. You mention TAC, I fear a B6-NK merger may become like EA having its assets gradually moved over to CO, destroying any staff morale in the process. We all know how that ended.


I'm not going to lie, with the way things are going right now in the industry, all of the above could be entirely possible. Taking a step back, say if all three were to combine, I doubt it would be anything close to what Lorenzo did in the 1980s or Pan Am / National merging. It could even work out better (culturally) than UA and CO combining.

Does anyone know how financially NK, B6, or F9 are doing independently right now? I recall F9 while living in DEN back in 2016 always having MX issues and being low rated back in 2016. NK so much.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Fri May 20, 2022 11:39 pm

DL buys AS, AA buys B6, UA has a strategic partnership with Silver for SE and Florida traffic. Breeze, Avelo, and G4 all merge. HA does its own thing.
 
N649DL
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Sat May 21, 2022 7:06 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
DL buys AS, AA buys B6, UA has a strategic partnership with Silver for SE and Florida traffic. Breeze, Avelo, and G4 all merge. HA does its own thing.


I thought UA already had that with Silver like a decade ago and then dumped them? It's kind of funny, with all the codesharing out of the same terminal, FLL was like an unofficial mini-hub for UA around 2012.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Sat May 21, 2022 7:19 pm

B6-HA?
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Sat May 21, 2022 7:47 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
N649DL wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
DL buys AS, AA buys B6, UA has a strategic partnership with Silver for SE and Florida traffic. Breeze, Avelo, and G4 all merge. HA does its own thing.


I thought UA already had that with Silver like a decade ago and then dumped them? It's kind of funny, with all the codesharing out of the same terminal, FLL was like an unofficial mini-hub for UA around 2012.

CO had that going on, not sure about pmUA. But I'd love to see a full-on JV since the SE and Florida are Uniteds weak spots.
 
N649DL
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Re: Are there alternatives to B6's hostile takeover?

Sat May 21, 2022 9:31 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
N649DL wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
DL buys AS, AA buys B6, UA has a strategic partnership with Silver for SE and Florida traffic. Breeze, Avelo, and G4 all merge. HA does its own thing.


I thought UA already had that with Silver like a decade ago and then dumped them? It's kind of funny, with all the codesharing out of the same terminal, FLL was like an unofficial mini-hub for UA around 2012.

CO had that going on, not sure about pmUA. But I'd love to see a full-on JV since the SE and Florida are Uniteds weak spots.


There was a time around 2012-2013 where UA re-established nonstops between FLL and ORD, IAD, and SFO and a lot of it was on 757s. In fact for Spring Break in 2013 on EWR-FLL was on an sUA 757 and upon arrival, quite a few gates were stocked with 757s and also connections to Silver. I think UA ditched their partnership with them for cost saving reasons. Par for the course for UA back then.

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