evanb wrote:NTLDaz wrote:It is in the context of them being able to fly a more direct route, which in itself may make the flight more viable.
Having a large amount of some of your potential customer base being wealthy would not be a bad thing. This was in response to the VFR and minimal business links statement.
I doubt LY ( if they ever fly here ) would be trying to be a mini EK and aiming for large amount of connecting traffic.
I don't get it at all. Making something more viable means it was already viable without it ... that said, I still disagree. A decent sized and wealthy VFR base isn't sufficient by itself to make the non-stop route viable at present. VFR routes are particularly inconsistent in terms of traffic patterns, affected more by schools holidays, religious holidays and seasons than business or network traffic. Furthermore, wealthier passengers are still responsive to prices, even if they are less responsive that other passengers. Particularly long non-stop routes like this need a substantial yield premium (and volume) given the significantly higher risks and costs (both in terms of operating and opportunity cost). By comparison, the route is not that much shorter than PER-LHR, which QF needs a yield premium of about 50% over its one-stop services, combined with very high and consistent load factors to make it work profitably. Can LY get this sort of premium? Standard J and Y fares going for A$ 3,000 and A$ 14,000 round trip and consistently selling a 90% load factor? In the current environment, it'll be more than a stretch.
I agree, they won't be aiming for connecting traffic at all (on the TLV end, or much further than SYD on the MEL end) - that wasn't the point I'm making - but they will be competing with one-stop traffic which EK's massive volume and extensive sales capacity in Australia, in addition to the existing connecting capacity through places like HKG. This will make the achievement of the yields that they would have sought three years back a thing of the past. By comparison, on PER-LHR, QF are creaming off the highest yield from a substantially larger market. I doubt the Israel-Australia market is anywhere near the scale of Australia-UK, and thus there just isn't as much to cream off the top, not matter how wealthy they are. Looking at some data, in 2019, Israel reported 53,900 Australian arrivals and Australia reported 14,380 Israeli arrivals. Also, significant seasonality - Australia data showing best month triple the worst month. That's 1,313 per week, which isn't big at all. A 3x weekly route would provide 846 seats ... very difficult to cream off only high yield when you're taking most of the market.
Addendum: as a Jewish person living in the said southern suburbs of Melbourne, I think your stereotype that it's a huge Jewish community and everyone is wealthy and can afford and wants to pay for business class tickets all the time is rather bizarre. For many Jews, it's a once in a lifetime experience, and for others an occasional vacation once every so often. If I think of most people I know, it's been once or twice, often one as part of a school or university tour.[/quote]
You can find it bizarre all you like. I was just saying they might not have as much trouble filling the front of the plane. Irrespective of religion, race or whatever, people who live in the wealthiest suburbs tend to have a higher disposable income than those in the less wealthy suburbs. My statement was nothing more than that.
LY probably won't fly here - I'm not predicting they will.