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LX015
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:28 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:36 pm

bfitzflyer wrote:
They have an opportunity right now while Boeing is down to further dominate. A whole new replacement for a319/a320 family could set them up for the next 30 years.


They've already been replaced by the A220.
 
travelasia
Posts: 18
Joined: Sun May 19, 2019 10:30 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:14 am

An article on Runway Girl gives more insight into Airbus updates for the A350:

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2022/09/a ... iant-mtow/
Key takes:

Airbus is planning to transition the -900 and -1000 to a new build standard “new production standard” (NPS) between now and 2024
Performance improvements:
    Up to 1.2t weight reduction
    Tweaking of the flap settings by a software change, and faster landing gear retraction to improve performance at challenging airports
Tweaking the cabin:
    more internal usable length 89 cm (35“) by moving the rear bulkhead and rearranging the layout before door 1
    tweaking the galleys and crew rest access
    extra 10 cm (4“) in cabin width
    new electro-dimmable windows

I think not only Delta will be happy about improvements for what I interpret hot&high airports - unfortunately, no further details on the effects of the improvements

And please - keep the 10 abreast discussion in the thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1475057&start=200
 
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N14AZ
Posts: 4510
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:26 am

travelasia wrote:
faster landing gear retraction to improve performance at challenging airports

Interesting. I wouldn’t have thought that this such an issue. Of course, retraction can be some seconds faster but will it change that much? Or is it rather to start the retraction process immediately after takeoff?
 
astuteman
Posts: 7663
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:19 am

travelasia wrote:
An article on Runway Girl gives more insight into Airbus updates for the A350:

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2022/09/a ... iant-mtow/
Key takes:

Airbus is planning to transition the -900 and -1000 to a new build standard “new production standard” (NPS) between now and 2024
Performance improvements:
    Up to 1.2t weight reduction
    Tweaking of the flap settings by a software change, and faster landing gear retraction to improve performance at challenging airports
Tweaking the cabin:
    more internal usable length 89 cm (35“) by moving the rear bulkhead and rearranging the layout before door 1
    tweaking the galleys and crew rest access
    extra 10 cm (4“) in cabin width
    new electro-dimmable windows

I think not only Delta will be happy about improvements for what I interpret hot&high airports - unfortunately, no further details on the effects of the improvements

And please - keep the 10 abreast discussion in the thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1475057&start=200


I note the article also cites a 3t increase in MTOW, so for example, the MTOW of the A350-900 can grow from 280t to 283t.

Rgds
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 4217
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:23 pm

In the meantime AviationWeek points towards Airbus´ plans for new-build A321 freighters and A330neo freighters:

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/airbus-looks-broader-new-built-freighter-offering
 
JonesNL
Posts: 868
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:58 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:
In the meantime AviationWeek points towards Airbus´ plans for new-build A321 freighters and A330neo freighters:

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/airbus-looks-broader-new-built-freighter-offering


I wonder if they going for the same package deal as some other airline deals that they got.

You can only buy a A321neoF is you also buy a A350F…
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1573
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:33 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Flying-Tiger wrote:
In the meantime AviationWeek points towards Airbus´ plans for new-build A321 freighters and A330neo freighters:

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/airbus-looks-broader-new-built-freighter-offering


I wonder if they going for the same package deal as some other airline deals that they got.

You can only buy a A321neoF is you also buy a A350F…


A338/9F would make some sense as everything is already there... Its not like the fuselage changed a lot from the A332F. So all the gear for loading, etc. is there. Same for the freight door placement. That is no more than a few 100mio for certification and testing. It could be certified withing 2 years and be ready before 2025 if Airbus wants to.

The 321neoF is more interesting. It is not like Airbus is lacking orders to fill the orderbook. So even if they develop it, when will it be realistically availabe? It would have to cost the same as a pay A321 otherwise why even produce it, if you could sell the pax version with higher margins?
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 4217
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:54 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
The 321neoF is more interesting. It is not like Airbus is lacking orders to fill the orderbook. So even if they develop it, when will it be realistically availabe? It would have to cost the same as a pay A321 otherwise why even produce it, if you could sell the pax version with higher margins?


It is a cheap derivate in a market where only N/B conversions are available these days. The 757Fs won´t last forever, and an A321neoF could be a very interesting replacement solution. DHL operates about ~35 757Fs, FedEx ~110, SF Airlines ~ 35 and UPS ~75. That´s a replacement volume of up to 250 planes, with at least FedEx and UPS more likely to shop for newbuilds than for converted frames. Certainly large enough to entertain the idea of bringing in another derivate - and orders large enough to work with your order book in case of need.
 
HTCone
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:10 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:44 pm

But will it be more attractive to purchase than a converted A321 CEO freighter? Usage of the NEO would need to be very high to justify FEDX etc purchasing no?
 
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JerseyFlyer
Posts: 2161
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:04 pm

HTCone wrote:
But will it be more attractive to purchase than a converted A321 CEO freighter? Usage of the NEO would need to be very high to justify FEDX etc purchasing no?


Maybe if it has the MTOW of the XLR but the volume of a normal 321
 
xl0hr
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu May 13, 2021 11:27 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:36 pm

I don't understand the A321F. A rate increase seems to be tough and engine suppliers opted out of a quick ramp up. Is Fedex paying more than pax airlines to cover development cost plus opportunity cost (using ascarce production slot for a pax version)?
Last edited by xl0hr on Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
StTim
Topic Author
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:36 pm

So for the A350 the changes mean an additional load capacity of (up to) 4.2 tons. Not a bad improvement.
 
xl0hr
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu May 13, 2021 11:27 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:24 pm

travelasia wrote:
An article on Runway Girl gives more insight into Airbus updates for the A350:

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2022/09/a ... iant-mtow/
Key takes:

Airbus is planning to transition the -900 and -1000 to a new build standard “new production standard” (NPS) between now and 2024
Performance improvements:
    Up to 1.2t weight reduction
    Tweaking of the flap settings by a software change, and faster landing gear retraction to improve performance at challenging airports
Tweaking the cabin:
    more internal usable length 89 cm (35“) by moving the rear bulkhead and rearranging the layout before door 1
    tweaking the galleys and crew rest access
    extra 10 cm (4“) in cabin width
    new electro-dimmable windows

I think not only Delta will be happy about improvements for what I interpret hot&high airports - unfortunately, no further details on the effects of the improvements

And please - keep the 10 abreast discussion in the thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1475057&start=200


What does this translate to in extra passenger seats? Without 10ab? 2 more rows of eco?
 
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Polot
Posts: 13820
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:27 pm

xl0hr wrote:
travelasia wrote:
An article on Runway Girl gives more insight into Airbus updates for the A350:

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2022/09/a ... iant-mtow/
Key takes:

Airbus is planning to transition the -900 and -1000 to a new build standard “new production standard” (NPS) between now and 2024
Performance improvements:
    Up to 1.2t weight reduction
    Tweaking of the flap settings by a software change, and faster landing gear retraction to improve performance at challenging airports
Tweaking the cabin:
    more internal usable length 89 cm (35“) by moving the rear bulkhead and rearranging the layout before door 1
    tweaking the galleys and crew rest access
    extra 10 cm (4“) in cabin width
    new electro-dimmable windows

I think not only Delta will be happy about improvements for what I interpret hot&high airports - unfortunately, no further details on the effects of the improvements

And please - keep the 10 abreast discussion in the thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1475057&start=200


What does this translate to in extra passenger seats? Without 10ab? 2 more rows of eco?

35” would be 1 more row of economy.
 
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Grizzly410
Posts: 602
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:40 pm

xl0hr wrote:
I don't understand the A321F. A rate increase seems to be tough and engine suppliers opted out of a quick ramp up. Is Fedex paying more than pax airlines to cover development cost plus opportunity cost (using ascarce production slot for a pax version)?


With respect to A321 orderbook, except the very unlikely huge order including big blocks delivery, it shouldn't be that difficult to find slots provided customer is happy to pay for it.
A321F production compared to non-F would probably have to manage a different section with a cargo door cutout in the fuse, no window cutout for all fuse sections and that would be it structuraly. Once this rather standard airframe assembly completed the a/c is pulled out to a different completion center (hangar) for cargo specific assembly and tests, then delivered.
All in all, not a big disruption for existing A320 line.

But yeah, there's the dev costs to recoup, and Airbus doesn't have much intensive to invest money on this kind of project. Any customer would have to show a true commitment and big money before anything happens.
Some second hands recent A321ceo (got back from future neo-pax deals) convertion may be more affordable for a motivated customer? Certifying the mod of all cargo systems with them then port it to new build neos...?

All in all, I don't think an A321F is a realistic money maker prospect for Airbus anyway. There will be juicier things to chase soon, like an A321/2 with a new state of the art wingset !
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5587
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:57 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Wait and see what the gentlemen at Boeing do.


Why would they? Airbus can't always counter what Boeing is doing Because if they could? The 787 wouldn't have sold anywhere near what it's doing as the A350 would have blunted its "tip of the spear". the A321 sold because there WAS no Boeing answer to shelving the 757. (which was in itself a stupid Idea as Pratt. GE or Rolls could have upgraded the PW2000,CFM-56 or RB211-535. Or? Pratt's geared turbofan series of engines.
 
Opus99
Posts: 3553
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:26 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Wait and see what the gentlemen at Boeing do.


Why would they? Airbus can't always counter what Boeing is doing Because if they could? The 787 wouldn't have sold anywhere near what it's doing as the A350 would have blunted its "tip of the spear". the A321 sold because there WAS no Boeing answer to shelving the 757. (which was in itself a stupid Idea as Pratt. GE or Rolls could have upgraded the PW2000,CFM-56 or RB211-535. Or? Pratt's geared turbofan series of engines.

Not having a plan for a replacement was not smart. Killing the 757 was. It wasn’t in demand. Secondly. The 757 and 321 are still a bit different in size and weight
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5587
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:51 am

Opus99 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Wait and see what the gentlemen at Boeing do.


Why would they? Airbus can't always counter what Boeing is doing Because if they could? The 787 wouldn't have sold anywhere near what it's doing as the A350 would have blunted its "tip of the spear". the A321 sold because there WAS no Boeing answer to shelving the 757. (which was in itself a stupid Idea as Pratt. GE or Rolls could have upgraded the PW2000,CFM-56 or RB211-535. Or? Pratt's geared turbofan series of engines.

Not having a plan for a replacement was not smart. Killing the 757 was. It wasn’t in demand. Secondly. The 757 and 321 are still a bit different in size and weight

does that REALLY make a difference? the A321 doesn't have the range of the 757 without aux tanks and not even the 737-700,or 900 without extra tankage. so your comparison is what?
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5587
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:14 am

strfyr51 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Wait and see what the gentlemen at Boeing do.


Why would they? Airbus can't always counter what Boeing is doing Because if they could? The 787 wouldn't have sold anywhere near what it's doing as the A350 would have blunted its "tip of the spear". the A321 sold because there WAS no Boeing answer to shelving the 757. (which was in itself a stupid Idea as Pratt. GE or Rolls could have upgraded the PW2000,CFM-56 or RB211-535. Or? Pratt's geared turbofan series of engines.

that was then. If Boeing updated the planform for the 757? I'd bet good money they'd sell like hotcakes. When Boeing shut down the 757 they were looking ahead and didn't like the View. Nothing wrong with that, But they scrapped the tooling and Jigs to build the airplane and that is what I disagree with. though? were they to build it in the same fashion as the 787 is built? they could very well have a winner! Too bad I was an airline Mechanic and not a designer. Sometimes? the guys on the Line can see things the Engineers Can't because We have to fix the stuff they design. And that's not just Boeing, that includes Airbus as well..
 
Opus99
Posts: 3553
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:24 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:

Why would they? Airbus can't always counter what Boeing is doing Because if they could? The 787 wouldn't have sold anywhere near what it's doing as the A350 would have blunted its "tip of the spear". the A321 sold because there WAS no Boeing answer to shelving the 757. (which was in itself a stupid Idea as Pratt. GE or Rolls could have upgraded the PW2000,CFM-56 or RB211-535. Or? Pratt's geared turbofan series of engines.

Not having a plan for a replacement was not smart. Killing the 757 was. It wasn’t in demand. Secondly. The 757 and 321 are still a bit different in size and weight

does that REALLY make a difference? the A321 doesn't have the range of the 757 without aux tanks and not even the 737-700,or 900 without extra tankage. so your comparison is what?

Who’s talking about range. I’m talking about size. The 757 is still bigger than the 321neo. It’s not necessarily like for like. It’s just the closest thing to it at the moment. Given the 757 Is about another 6 FEET longer.

So it’s not as though the 757 size was always in demand. Smaller aircraft. Particularly the 737 and 320 pushed it to its death
 
JonesNL
Posts: 868
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:07 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
xl0hr wrote:
I don't understand the A321F. A rate increase seems to be tough and engine suppliers opted out of a quick ramp up. Is Fedex paying more than pax airlines to cover development cost plus opportunity cost (using ascarce production slot for a pax version)?


With respect to A321 orderbook, except the very unlikely huge order including big blocks delivery, it shouldn't be that difficult to find slots provided customer is happy to pay for it.
A321F production compared to non-F would probably have to manage a different section with a cargo door cutout in the fuse, no window cutout for all fuse sections and that would be it structuraly. Once this rather standard airframe assembly completed the a/c is pulled out to a different completion center (hangar) for cargo specific assembly and tests, then delivered.
All in all, not a big disruption for existing A320 line.

But yeah, there's the dev costs to recoup, and Airbus doesn't have much intensive to invest money on this kind of project. Any customer would have to show a true commitment and big money before anything happens.
Some second hands recent A321ceo (got back from future neo-pax deals) convertion may be more affordable for a motivated customer? Certifying the mod of all cargo systems with them then port it to new build neos...?

All in all, I don't think an A321F is a realistic money maker prospect for Airbus anyway. There will be juicier things to chase soon, like an A321/2 with a new state of the art wingset !


Exactly, I think the only thing that makes a A321neoF a interesting proposition for Airbus is that they can get a foothold at some customers to sell some A350F's. Fedex is even hinting at a A321F deal in combo with the A350F...
 
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Mortyman
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:29 am

uppdated and more effecient Airbus 380 ...
 
Noshow
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:11 am

Next thing might be a new wing for the narrow bodies to grow them to A322 and A323. And some A220-500, finally. Then how about some new smaller wide body below the A350?
The main thing will be manufacturing improvements.
 
xwb777
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:52 am

The A350NEO/A350-2000
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:29 am

strfyr51 wrote:

Why would they? Airbus can't always counter what Boeing is doing Because if they could? The 787 wouldn't have sold anywhere near what it's doing as the A350 would have blunted its "tip of the spear". the A321 sold because there WAS no Boeing answer to shelving the 757. (which was in itself a stupid Idea as Pratt. GE or Rolls could have upgraded the PW2000,CFM-56 or RB211-535. Or? Pratt's geared turbofan series of engines.


A 757 with newer engines would still have been heavier and less efficient compared to the A321neo, for any route where the A321 has the range the 757 would not be economical, leaving a narrow band for the 757 to live in. In my opinion flexibility is just as important to airlines as efficiency, so I don't think this upgraded 757 would have done well. I certainly don't think it's a huge mistake, if airlines wanted it, Boeing would have made it. Boeing didn't make it, so that leaves a fairly easy conclusion for me: they didn't want it.

Anyway, the A321 has sold because it's a very good and flexible aircraft which fits into a well-established and popular family.
 
DartHerald
Posts: 278
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:01 am

The next Airbus development should be the A220-500, I'd have thought, although I do also like the idea of an updated A300 for up to 4000nm trunk routes - why fly a bigger, heavier A330 or 787 on the shorter routes if there was to be a lighter and more efficient alternative? When the A300 was originally introduced it was used on a lot of intra-european routes, nowadays with far more people flying there is surely a role for it as airports start to restrict the number of slots available on environmental grounds.
 
DartHerald
Posts: 278
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:08 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:01 am

The next Airbus development should be the A220-500, I'd have thought, although I do also like the idea of an updated A300 for up to 4000nm trunk routes - why fly a bigger, heavier A330 or 787 on the shorter routes if there was to be a lighter and more efficient alternative? When the A300 was originally introduced it was used on a lot of intra-european routes, nowadays with far more people flying there is surely a role for it as airports start to restrict the number of slots available on environmental grounds.
 
xl0hr
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu May 13, 2021 11:27 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:43 am

JonesNL wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
xl0hr wrote:
I don't understand the A321F. A rate increase seems to be tough and engine suppliers opted out of a quick ramp up. Is Fedex paying more than pax airlines to cover development cost plus opportunity cost (using ascarce production slot for a pax version)?


With respect to A321 orderbook, except the very unlikely huge order including big blocks delivery, it shouldn't be that difficult to find slots provided customer is happy to pay for it.
A321F production compared to non-F would probably have to manage a different section with a cargo door cutout in the fuse, no window cutout for all fuse sections and that would be it structuraly. Once this rather standard airframe assembly completed the a/c is pulled out to a different completion center (hangar) for cargo specific assembly and tests, then delivered.
All in all, not a big disruption for existing A320 line.

But yeah, there's the dev costs to recoup, and Airbus doesn't have much intensive to invest money on this kind of project. Any customer would have to show a true commitment and big money before anything happens.
Some second hands recent A321ceo (got back from future neo-pax deals) convertion may be more affordable for a motivated customer? Certifying the mod of all cargo systems with them then port it to new build neos...?

All in all, I don't think an A321F is a realistic money maker prospect for Airbus anyway. There will be juicier things to chase soon, like an A321/2 with a new state of the art wingset !


Exactly, I think the only thing that makes a A321neoF a interesting proposition for Airbus is that they can get a foothold at some customers to sell some A350F's. Fedex is even hinting at a A321F deal in combo with the A350F...


Sometimes I wonder how rich an A320-family-only Airbus would be. When is A350 scheduled to recoup development cost? Are they currently earning money at those low rates?
 
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BaconButty
Posts: 959
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Re: What next for Airbus?

Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:37 am

So reading this thread, things that are potentially in the pipeline for Airbus, where there are at least hints in interviews, job adverts, press etc but ignoring things that are merely a.net speculation, like the A322:

  • A220-500
  • A220 re-engine
  • A320 new composite wing
  • A321XLR
  • A321F
  • A330NEO Freighter
  • A330NEO MRTT
  • A350F
  • A350NEO
  • A350-2000
  • Single Aisle replacement

So a lot of work there. A lot depends on the target EIS for the single aisle replacement. Back in 2010 it was scheduled for 2025, when the NEO was announced it drifted out to 2030, then the early 2030's, now 2035. Which in itself seems extremely ambitious if they go with hydrogen. But let's go with 2035, 13 years off. What's been done in the last 13 years? I think this covers it:

  • A400M EIS
  • On-boarding the A220
  • A320NEO
  • A321XLR
  • A330NEO
  • A330MRTT (EIS 2011)
  • A350-900
  • A350-1000
  • A350-900ULR

Give them T-shirt sizes and it's a similarly sized body of work, possibly achievable, especially if the single aisle replacement goes out to 2040 as I expect. If that is the case, they'll still need to be delivering legacy platforms in that space through 2045. Going in to the 2030's with a Hi-Lo offering of A220's and re-winged A320's might see them through. Presents Boeing with a challenge, too.
 
Kikko19
Posts: 955
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:45 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:41 pm

DartHerald wrote:
The next Airbus development should be the A220-500, I'd have thought, although I do also like the idea of an updated A300 for up to 4000nm trunk routes - why fly a bigger, heavier A330 or 787 on the shorter routes if there was to be a lighter and more efficient alternative? When the A300 was originally introduced it was used on a lot of intra-european routes, nowadays with far more people flying there is surely a role for it as airports start to restrict the number of slots available on environmental grounds.

I also agreed for the new a300. I don't remember who but was stated some (good?) reasons not to build it. But I don't remember ;) but yeah I think would have been a NMA killer
 
xl0hr
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu May 13, 2021 11:27 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:49 pm

BaconButty wrote:
So reading this thread, things that are potentially in the pipeline for Airbus, where there are at least hints in interviews, job adverts, press etc but ignoring things that are merely a.net speculation, like the A322:

  • A220-500
  • A220 re-engine
  • A320 new composite wing
  • A321XLR
  • A321F
  • A330NEO Freighter
  • A330NEO MRTT
  • A350F
  • A350NEO
  • A350-2000
  • Single Aisle replacement

So a lot of work there. A lot depends on the target EIS for the single aisle replacement. Back in 2010 it was scheduled for 2025, when the NEO was announced it drifted out to 2030, then the early 2030's, now 2035. Which in itself seems extremely ambitious if they go with hydrogen. But let's go with 2035, 13 years off. What's been done in the last 13 years? I think this covers it:

  • A400M EIS
  • On-boarding the A220
  • A320NEO
  • A321XLR
  • A330NEO
  • A330MRTT (EIS 2011)
  • A350-900
  • A350-1000
  • A350-900ULR

Give them T-shirt sizes and it's a similarly sized body of work, possibly achievable, especially if the single aisle replacement goes out to 2040 as I expect. If that is the case, they'll still need to be delivering legacy platforms in that space through 2045. Going in to the 2030's with a Hi-Lo offering of A220's and re-winged A320's might see them through. Presents Boeing with a challenge, too.


I enjoyed that post. Thanks!

I would like to add ATR to the picture. That's the perfect place to trial balloon the H2 aircraft in say 10 years EIS.

At the same time, I can't see an A320 replacement EIS in the next 15 years. I wonder: is it going to be a smooth phasing out with A220-500 and the A321 (plus larger, maybe rewinged)?

How do you replace a 75/month aircraft? No one did that... ever...
 
Noshow
Posts: 3700
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:59 pm

They have several assembly lines in parallel. It will be the easiest move ever. I'd speculate they will keep the Neo family but grow it in size with a new wing. Cheap, low risk and efficient.
 
xl0hr
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu May 13, 2021 11:27 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:07 pm

Noshow wrote:
They have several assembly lines in parallel. It will be the easiest move ever. I'd speculate they will keep the Neo family but grow it in size with a new wing. Cheap, low risk and efficient.


And a new single aisle?
 
ReverseFlow
Posts: 612
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:40 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:25 am

BaconButty wrote:
So reading this thread, things that are potentially in the pipeline for Airbus, where there are at least hints in interviews, job adverts, press etc but ignoring things that are merely a.net speculation, like the A322:

  • A220-500
  • A220 re-engine
  • A320 new composite wing
  • A321XLR
  • A321F
  • A330NEO Freighter
  • A330NEO MRTT
  • A350F
  • A350NEO
  • A350-2000
  • Single Aisle replacement

So a lot of work there. A lot depends on the target EIS for the single aisle replacement. Back in 2010 it was scheduled for 2025, when the NEO was announced it drifted out to 2030, then the early 2030's, now 2035. Which in itself seems extremely ambitious if they go with hydrogen. But let's go with 2035, 13 years off. What's been done in the last 13 years? I think this covers it:

  • A400M EIS
  • On-boarding the A220
  • A320NEO
  • A321XLR
  • A330NEO
  • A330MRTT (EIS 2011)
  • A350-900
  • A350-1000
  • A350-900ULR

Give them T-shirt sizes and it's a similarly sized body of work, possibly achievable, especially if the single aisle replacement goes out to 2040 as I expect. If that is the case, they'll still need to be delivering legacy platforms in that space through 2045. Going in to the 2030's with a Hi-Lo offering of A220's and re-winged A320's might see them through. Presents Boeing with a challenge, too.


From the first list, we know there is the A321XLR and the A350F.
What is missing off the list is the huge challenge of the ZEROe.
Communicated as "At Airbus, we have the ambition to develop the world’s first zero-emission commercial aircraft by 2035."

That alone will be a huge undertaking.

https://www.airbus.com/en/innovation/ze ... ogen/zeroe

Noshow wrote:
They have several assembly lines in parallel. It will be the easiest move ever. I'd speculate they will keep the Neo family but grow it in size with a new wing. Cheap, low risk and efficient.


Define cheap and low risk?

You'll be changing the whole fuel system, landing gear installation, pylon, flight controls, aircraft handling etc.

I'd hazard a guess and say it'd be a bigger undertaking than the NEO or XLR.
 
Noshow
Posts: 3700
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:38 am

Agreed, but it will need only some single digit billion dollar investment compared to double digit for a clean sheet. Plus you have all the commonalities with the A320 well established family. It's just a matter of "when" not "if" from my view. Let's see what they will built inside the former A380 FAL?
 
User avatar
DLHAM
Posts: 893
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:10 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:16 am

Not in a specific order:

A350 re-engine
A220-500 (if that ever happens)
A320neo+ (2-3 row stretch, makes sense with an A220-500)
A321neo re-wing plus then another stretch 3-4 rows

Next Clean Sheet might be an A300/A330 successor, alternatively a Clean Sheet A320, using the new Wing. I think when Boeing builds an all-new 737 in maybe 10+ years Airbus has so come up with something solid too ...
 
Noshow
Posts: 3700
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:47 am

As Airbus is selling so many A321neos there is a big advantage to keep this familiy going. They can afford to wait what Boeing has to come up with for NSA and NMA or whatever they renamed them.

I expect the climate change drama to cool down after the research funding got spent one day. Then it will be back to business: Evolution not revolution. Ultra high bypass twins, SAF fed if you like.
 
ReverseFlow
Posts: 612
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2022 4:40 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:48 am

Noshow wrote:
Agreed, but it will need only some single digit billion dollar investment compared to double digit for a clean sheet. Plus you have all the commonalities with the A320 well established family. It's just a matter of "when" not "if" from my view. Let's see what they will built inside the former A380 FAL?
This:

"By mid-2022 the current A380 Lagardère facility in Toulouse will accommodate a digitally-enabled A321 line as a step to modernise the A320 production system in Toulouse."

https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/pres ... n-toulouse
 
JonesNL
Posts: 868
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:02 am

Paris airshow 2023 will be interesting. The XLR will be almost done development en testing wise. It would be the ideal time to announce a A322neo, with EIS 2027. The only if is getting the supply chain back in order. Most tier 1 suppliers are currently complaining that 75 a month is not feasible. For launching a new type that is bound to be extremely popular, they need more capacity…
 
User avatar
MrBren
Posts: 396
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:44 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:46 am

 
Opus99
Posts: 3553
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:36 am

Sounds like 2025 for the 225.

322 won’t come out unless Boeing does something.

And for 322 being cheap compared to a new narrowbody that Boeing might launch.

cheap doesn’t always mean success. Case in point. 330NEO. It doesn’t get any cheaper than that and it can barely scrap 250 sales.

The thing about making a new plane from scratch is there are just some edges the new one can give you that an old one can’t because it’s the same frame.

But we have to see. No point until all the cards are on the table
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5587
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:55 am

Phosphorus wrote:
If this forum is to be believed, slow-motion pre-development of A322 could be done, behind the scenes.
Without massive deployment of resources, that typically happens when the "launch" button is pushed.
Only when engineers are available.

Rumour mill always has A220-500 on the radar.

R&D and engineering could be spending some time, running iterations of SWOT on future of electric propulsion.

SAF story is far from clear, figuring out if SAF will be fully equivalent to kerosene (probably not), and once it's clearer -- what exactly that SAF stuff is going to be -- redesigning things that need to be redesigned, and future-proofing supply chain.
I'm pretty sure a lot of non-metal stuff inside the plane will need a serious look at, once you know that SAF will not be identical to kerosene chemically. I mean anything plastic or rubber is in danger zone.

Do they second people to ATR? That place might finally get some love from Airbus, if props indeed are getting a more favourable position in the "green transition", as alleged.

So? Exactly what is this A322 you speak of? will it be the stop gap for the 767? Wasn't the A330 to do that? What might be the A322 uplift and range Be? and What Boeing airplane might it be counter TO?
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5587
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:04 am

xl0hr wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
So reading this thread, things that are potentially in the pipeline for Airbus, where there are at least hints in interviews, job adverts, press etc but ignoring things that are merely a.net speculation, like the A322:

  • A220-500
  • A220 re-engine
  • A320 new composite wing
  • A321XLR
  • A321F
  • A330NEO Freighter
  • A330NEO MRTT
  • A350F
  • A350NEO
  • A350-2000
  • Single Aisle replacement

So a lot of work there. A lot depends on the target EIS for the single aisle replacement. Back in 2010 it was scheduled for 2025, when the NEO was announced it drifted out to 2030, then the early 2030's, now 2035. Which in itself seems extremely ambitious if they go with hydrogen. But let's go with 2035, 13 years off. What's been done in the last 13 years? I think this covers it:

  • A400M EIS
  • On-boarding the A220
  • A320NEO
  • A321XLR
  • A330NEO
  • A330MRTT (EIS 2011)
  • A350-900
  • A350-1000
  • A350-900ULR

Give them T-shirt sizes and it's a similarly sized body of work, possibly achievable, especially if the single aisle replacement goes out to 2040 as I expect. If that is the case, they'll still need to be delivering legacy platforms in that space through 2045. Going in to the 2030's with a Hi-Lo offering of A220's and re-winged A320's might see them through. Presents Boeing with a challenge, too.


I enjoyed that post. Thanks!

I would like to add ATR to the picture. That's the perfect place to trial balloon the H2 aircraft in say 10 years EIS.

At the same time, I can't see an A320 replacement EIS in the next 15 years. I wonder: is it going to be a smooth phasing out with A220-500 and the A321 (plus larger, maybe rewinged)?

How do you replace a 75/month aircraft? No one did that... ever...

the A320 replacement will come 10 minutes after the 737 replacement is announced and the A322 5 minutes after the 757 replacement is announced . Boeing right now? Is going totally Digital, and when they get that on track? then it's going to be ON. as they'll follow up the 787 with a whole new lineup. and? it's about Time!
 
Opus99
Posts: 3553
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:10 am

strfyr51 wrote:
xl0hr wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
So reading this thread, things that are potentially in the pipeline for Airbus, where there are at least hints in interviews, job adverts, press etc but ignoring things that are merely a.net speculation, like the A322:

  • A220-500
  • A220 re-engine
  • A320 new composite wing
  • A321XLR
  • A321F
  • A330NEO Freighter
  • A330NEO MRTT
  • A350F
  • A350NEO
  • A350-2000
  • Single Aisle replacement

So a lot of work there. A lot depends on the target EIS for the single aisle replacement. Back in 2010 it was scheduled for 2025, when the NEO was announced it drifted out to 2030, then the early 2030's, now 2035. Which in itself seems extremely ambitious if they go with hydrogen. But let's go with 2035, 13 years off. What's been done in the last 13 years? I think this covers it:

  • A400M EIS
  • On-boarding the A220
  • A320NEO
  • A321XLR
  • A330NEO
  • A330MRTT (EIS 2011)
  • A350-900
  • A350-1000
  • A350-900ULR

Give them T-shirt sizes and it's a similarly sized body of work, possibly achievable, especially if the single aisle replacement goes out to 2040 as I expect. If that is the case, they'll still need to be delivering legacy platforms in that space through 2045. Going in to the 2030's with a Hi-Lo offering of A220's and re-winged A320's might see them through. Presents Boeing with a challenge, too.


I enjoyed that post. Thanks!

I would like to add ATR to the picture. That's the perfect place to trial balloon the H2 aircraft in say 10 years EIS.

At the same time, I can't see an A320 replacement EIS in the next 15 years. I wonder: is it going to be a smooth phasing out with A220-500 and the A321 (plus larger, maybe rewinged)?

How do you replace a 75/month aircraft? No one did that... ever...

the A320 replacement will come 10 minutes after the 737 replacement is announced and the A322 5 minutes after the 757 replacement is announced . Boeing right now? Is going totally Digital, and when they get that on track? then it's going to be ON. as they'll follow up the 787 with a whole new lineup. and? it's about Time!

Airbus too is going digital I believe. The new single aisle battle is going to be fun.

I don’t believe Airbus is going to take the 320NEO through one more re-engine. They’ll bring a new single aisle. As will Boeing of course.

It’s gonna be fun
 
mig17
Posts: 467
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:34 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:53 am

""A stretched version of the lightweight Canadian-designed airplane makes a lot of sense, "but we don't want to be right too early", Chief Executive Guillaume Faury told investors.""

It feels like the A220-500 launch is some kind of triger and Airbus want to be ready when they pull it.
Does someone now what will be the ratio between A320 and A321 remaining to be produced in 2024, 2025 or 2026?

My take is, the A225 will be launch when the A320 production lines will be at full speed, producing a majority of A321 ... and that launch would force Boeing to launch it's new narrowbody in the main time.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1573
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:11 pm

mig17 wrote:
""A stretched version of the lightweight Canadian-designed airplane makes a lot of sense, "but we don't want to be right too early", Chief Executive Guillaume Faury told investors.""

It feels like the A220-500 launch is some kind of triger and Airbus want to be ready when they pull it.
Does someone now what will be the ratio between A320 and A321 remaining to be produced in 2024, 2025 or 2026?

My take is, the A225 will be launch when the A320 production lines will be at full speed, producing a majority of A321 ... and that launch would force Boeing to launch it's new narrowbody in the main time.


Personally I think the trigger will be pulled when the A220 line is at a stable production rate with a stable way to increase production further. This will mitigate the risk to have delays for launch customers.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7663
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:24 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
the A320 replacement will come 10 minutes after the 737 replacement is announced and the A322 5 minutes after the 757 replacement is announced . Boeing right now? Is going totally Digital, and when they get that on track? then it's going to be ON. as they'll follow up the 787 with a whole new lineup. and? it's about Time!


Did you miss the article linked in reply #138 by ReverseFlow, and the quote from it?
I'll take the liberty (with apologies to ReverseFlow) of repeating them

https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/pres ... n-toulouse

By mid-2022 the current A380 Lagardère facility in Toulouse will accommodate a digitally-enabled A321 line as a step to modernise the A320 production system in Toulouse.


Airbus right now? It seems that Airbus are already well down the path of digitising the A320 family....
And as they're already "knocking them out like candy", heaven only knows what that will mean for the A320 family output. What's beyond "knocking them out like Candy? :).

I'd be wary, by the way of nailing your colours to the "digitisation" mast as a panacea for everything - there's a danger of turning it into the next "drug-like" rush to follow 3-D Printing and CFRP barrels.

It's good to get excited about new directions in Manufacturing (which has been my life's work, for what its worth), but they all
a) have their limitations
b) come with disadvantages/costs as well as advantages/benefits
c) are usually as available to the competition as they are to yourselves....

Rgds
 
User avatar
Phosphorus
Posts: 1966
Joined: Tue May 16, 2017 11:38 am

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:51 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
If this forum is to be believed, slow-motion pre-development of A322 could be done, behind the scenes.
Without massive deployment of resources, that typically happens when the "launch" button is pushed.
Only when engineers are available.

Rumour mill always has A220-500 on the radar.

R&D and engineering could be spending some time, running iterations of SWOT on future of electric propulsion.

SAF story is far from clear, figuring out if SAF will be fully equivalent to kerosene (probably not), and once it's clearer -- what exactly that SAF stuff is going to be -- redesigning things that need to be redesigned, and future-proofing supply chain.
I'm pretty sure a lot of non-metal stuff inside the plane will need a serious look at, once you know that SAF will not be identical to kerosene chemically. I mean anything plastic or rubber is in danger zone.

Do they second people to ATR? That place might finally get some love from Airbus, if props indeed are getting a more favourable position in the "green transition", as alleged.

So? Exactly what is this A322 you speak of? will it be the stop gap for the 767? Wasn't the A330 to do that? What might be the A322 uplift and range Be? and What Boeing airplane might it be counter TO?


Disclaimer: I'm not privy to anything Airbus internal.

Lore goes that A322 would be a stretch of A321, that would, or would not, feature foldable wings. But in any case, a new wing. Maybe some of that wing development effort could be back-ported to the smaller members of A320 family.

The idea is, from what I understand, is that by keeping the pot warm, but not actually bifurcating into a product launch, Airbus can keep Boeing second-guessing its intentions.

Because for Boeing, middle-market is a steeper hill to climb. It cannot base a new mid-market airplane on 737. And shrink of 787's (like 787-3, proposed in the very beginning of the program), while not impossible, wouldn't probably be the answer to the market needs.

gotta go clean-sheet. Expensive, time-consuming, uncertain. And anywhere in the middle of that process, Airbus can show up with a promise of A322 in two-three years. And because nobody knows what EXACTLY that A322 might be, nor when it might show up, Boeing is at a disadvantage, as far as crafting a response is concerned.

Halo of A322, unlaunched, gives Airbus upper ground for now.
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 4110
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:51 pm

The A220-500 will most likely debut with the new updated cockpit that Airbus will migrate across product lines. Both Airbus and Boeing has stated regulators on both sides of the of the Atlantic want certain safety features from this point going forward. It was going to require a rethink of even Airbus's forward thinking cockpit architecture.
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 453
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 3:19 pm

Re: What next for Airbus?

Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:57 pm

I don’t see Airbus overhauling the 225 cockpit and potentially eliminating commonality with the other models. I could see Delta and JetBlue both interested in a 225 but not if they lose commonality.

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