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bobsmith99
Posts: 47
Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:02 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:00 pm

My apologies- I just saw an earlier post talking about mainline aircraft. Did TOL ever have service to the west coast? Also, still have the question about its heyday.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1825
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:08 pm

Tan Flyr wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
Yes the some of the residents of Toledo are poor (just like DET, CLE and CHI) but there is alot of money in the Burghs. They are thousands of manufacturing jobs left at JEEP, Big 3 suppliers and Big 3 component and stamping plants, the refineries, Cleveland Cliffs, rail, the docks, agri businesses. .

Just down the road is Fremont which is the HQ of Marathon Oil and Cooper Tire. DTW is just too close and folks in NW Ohio are used to driving.

Mohawk…I believe you meant Findlay. That is where those 2 firms are located. Even my relatives that live just SE of Findlay drive to DTW for the nonstops.



You are correct - Findlay is the HQ city.

Interesting that Lima and Defiance are just down the road from Toledo too and both have significant industrial facilities. Imagine that Findlay, Lima and Defiance corporate passengers arrive via .GA.

Still wonder if 9 seaters could fill those gaps.
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1992
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:15 pm

bobsmith99 wrote:
This has been an interesting thread to read. For the TOL historians, when was traffic at its peak? At its height did TOL have multiple daily flights on mainlines? Any widebodies? I'm guessing before deregulation there at least were some point to point flights. Just curious.


At its peak, in 1979, Toledo had regular, daily jet flights by
United
Eastern
Delta
Frontier
TWA
Air Florida
USAir

And commuter flights on
Air Wisconsin
Comair

http://www.departedflights.com/TOL79intro.html
 
umichman
Posts: 355
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:25 pm

Q wrote:
It doesn't make sense TOL and DTW what's difference parking airport cost per day? TOL may be much lower rates than DTW. So Why can't Southwest or Spirit fly to TOL from DEN/BWI/MCO/ATL/DFW and NYC (LGA, EWR or JFK)? What a waste of time driving to DTW and also driving gas wasting $$ long drive heavy traffic in DTW area. No sense. TOL is light traffic and gets some open new flights in TOL to avoid DTW traffic and congestions.


Q


Freeways around DTW rarely get congested as it is well outside Detroit city center and the drive up I-75/275 from Toledo area is about as straightforward as it gets.
 
jplatts
Posts: 5874
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:38 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
You are correct - Findlay is the HQ city.

Interesting that Lima and Defiance are just down the road from Toledo too and both have significant industrial facilities. Imagine that Findlay, Lima and Defiance corporate passengers arrive via .GA.

Still wonder if 9 seaters could fill those gaps.


Findlay is approximately equidistant from CMH, DAY, DTW, and FWA, with CMH, DAY, DTW, and FWA all being located 90-100 miles from the Findlay, OH area.

FDY is probably far enough from CMH/DAY/DTW/FWA to support nonstop service to ORD on KG, and there would some be connecting opportunities onto UA flights out of ORD from FDY if KG adds FDY-ORD nonstop service due to the interline agreement that UA has with KG.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7818
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:37 pm

USAirKid wrote:
But this all goes back to the point I was making earlier that TOL losing AA is likely a symptom of there being an abundance of airports in the US, especially the eastern US. As Jetskipper mentioned, WN generally doesn't serve airports with less than a million people. We might see that also become the case with many of the majors, especially when excellent air service is nearby, such as DTW for TOL.


It's not really a matter of "an abundance of airports in the US." It's the result of a number of interrelated long-term changes in how people travel along with a "pilot shortage" caused by a years-long race to the bottom in pilot compensation at regional carriers. Deregulation happened around the time of the completion of the Interstate Highway System. Lots of communities with airports are a lot closer timewise by road to a large airport than was true in 1980, especially as the 55 mph national speed limit was abandoned.

The top factor for TOL, by far, is proximity to an incredibly well-connected hub airport with non-stop service to most top- and mid-tier domestic markets, not to mention close to a dozen cities in Europe and Asia (combined). The hour's drive to DTW is a fairly minor inconvenience for most compared to changing planes at a hub like ORD combined with all the glitches that can bring. Getting stuck in traffic on the way to/from DTW is typically going to be preferable to getting stuck for hours or overnight at ORD because you missed your connection or because of weather or a mechanical problem or...

It's only going to be worthwhile for a legacy carrier to serve an airport like TOL (or CAK, or FNT, or MHT, etc.) if they can achieve some sort of pricing premium or cost advantage vs. the nearby large hub airport. In some cases, like PAE, serving that alternate makes sense if it keeps potential competitors out or maintains customer loyalty in your hub market region, although the legacies these days typically have very limited or no service in alternate airports for their hubs. DL and B6 are at ORH to curry favor with Massport, which operates both that airport and BOS.
 
USAirKid
Posts: 1298
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:42 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:38 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
bobsmith99 wrote:
This has been an interesting thread to read. For the TOL historians, when was traffic at its peak? At its height did TOL have multiple daily flights on mainlines? Any widebodies? I'm guessing before deregulation there at least were some point to point flights. Just curious.


At its peak, in 1979, Toledo had regular, daily jet flights by
United
Eastern
Delta
Frontier
TWA
Air Florida
USAir

And commuter flights on
Air Wisconsin
Comair

http://www.departedflights.com/TOL79intro.html


The fun detail in that link is that Frontier and Air Wisconsin flew from Toldedo to Detroit.
 
NLINK
Posts: 548
Joined: Sat Nov 15, 2003 3:20 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:07 pm

It looks like AA only carried about 8,500 people or so in all of 2021 from TOL. So 2 flights a day on a 50 seat plane is 100 seats per day, 700 seats per week, or 36,400 seats per year (probably a few less with holiday schedules. Thats under a 25% load factor. No way that makes any money.
 
User avatar
AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 1680
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:20 pm

USAirKid wrote:

The fun detail in that link is that Frontier and Air Wisconsin flew from Toldedo to Detroit.


I think Northwest Airlink was flying TOL-DTW with Saab 340s well into the 21st century.
 
USAirKid
Posts: 1298
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:42 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:26 pm

ScottB wrote:
It's not really a matter of "an abundance of airports in the US." It's the result of a number of interrelated long-term changes in how people travel along with a "pilot shortage" caused by a years-long race to the bottom in pilot compensation at regional carriers. Deregulation happened around the time of the completion of the Interstate Highway System. Lots of communities with airports are a lot closer timewise by road to a large airport than was true in 1980, especially as the 55 mph national speed limit was abandoned.

The top factor for TOL, by far, is proximity to an incredibly well-connected hub airport with non-stop service to most top- and mid-tier domestic markets, not to mention close to a dozen cities in Europe and Asia (combined). The hour's drive to DTW is a fairly minor inconvenience for most compared to changing planes at a hub like ORD combined with all the glitches that can bring. Getting stuck in traffic on the way to/from DTW is typically going to be preferable to getting stuck for hours or overnight at ORD because you missed your connection or because of weather or a mechanical problem or...

It's only going to be worthwhile for a legacy carrier to serve an airport like TOL (or CAK, or FNT, or MHT, etc.) if they can achieve some sort of pricing premium or cost advantage vs. the nearby large hub airport. In some cases, like PAE, serving that alternate makes sense if it keeps potential competitors out or maintains customer loyalty in your hub market region, although the legacies these days typically have very limited or no service in alternate airports for their hubs. DL and B6 are at ORH to curry favor with Massport, which operates both that airport and BOS.


But doesn't the completion of the Interstate Highway System make more airports redundant? Which is very similar to abundance. If TOL didn't exist today, you would never build it for commercial aviation, since DTW is an easy drive up the interstate, especially if the drive is a pretty consistent amount of time. An airline couldn't get a consistent price premium at a new TOL.

PAE is probably as close to SEA as TOL is to DTW, however PAE makes sense for two reasons: SEA was/is flirting with capacity issues. The drive between Everett and SEA can vary wildly in how long it'll take, it'll be anywhere from an hour in good traffic, to two and a half in poor traffic.

Given that PAE currently has excess gate capacity that hasn't been spoken for, I'm not sure potential competitors want the space, ans AS doesn't see a need to keep them out. (I would've thought DL would want to try to serve SLC, ATL, and perhaps LAX from PAE, but there are available gates that aren't leased.)
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9502
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:38 pm

DTW-TOL was typically all SF3 up through about 2007/2008 timeframe, then they were periodically scheduling CRJs on the very short.
DTW-TOL even survived a bit post-merger with DL but the Saab fleet was targeted to phase-out in 2011 timeframe.

In late-2010, DL dropped DTW-TOL, and replaced it with a shortly lived MSP-TOL CR2 service that lasted not even 6 months before DL fully pulling out of TOL for the second time.

PMDL pulled out of TOL, when they dropped CVG-TOL in the 2008 timeframe.

I predicted it was all a matter of time until AA was done, I am shocked they made it another 10 years after DL left.
I am surprised AA didn't drop it during the pandemic but probably couldn't due to the CARES funding and they were the last legacy standing in TOL.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9502
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:09 pm

A lot of the air cargo out of Mexico is automotive related - going to the Jeep assembly plants and/or other suppliers in the region.
 
bobsmith99
Posts: 47
Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:02 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:15 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
bobsmith99 wrote:
This has been an interesting thread to read. For the TOL historians, when was traffic at its peak? At its height did TOL have multiple daily flights on mainlines? Any widebodies? I'm guessing before deregulation there at least were some point to point flights. Just curious.


At its peak, in 1979, Toledo had regular, daily jet flights by
United
Eastern
Delta
Frontier
TWA
Air Florida
USAir

And commuter flights on
Air Wisconsin
Comair

http://www.departedflights.com/TOL79intro.html



Thanks! My random Toledo memory is a family vacation with my parents driving through Ohio (probably early 80s) from Wisconsin and, as I-80 goes right by TOL, seeing a TWA jet takeoff overhead.
 
umichman
Posts: 355
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:36 pm

USAirKid wrote:
But doesn't the completion of the Interstate Highway System make more airports redundant? Which is very similar to abundance. If TOL didn't exist today, you would never build it for commercial aviation, since DTW is an easy drive up the interstate, especially if the drive is a pretty consistent amount of time. An airline couldn't get a consistent price premium at a new TOL.



It's also fair to note that the opening of the Eureka road entrance around 2002 with opening McNamara terminal also made DTW more convenient (both terminals) for passengers coming from TOL and south and parking at airport or picking up/dropping off passengers.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1825
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:58 pm

Is it safe to say that Toledo was the largest city (service wise)to completely lose all it's commercial air service.

Is Erie, PA next?
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 1680
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:29 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Is it safe to say that Toledo was the largest city (service wise)to completely lose all it's commercial air service.


Still has G4, however.
 
KarlB737
Posts: 2997
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:03 am

I am surprised that this story even made it to Fox Business but it has. They're primarily claiming that pilot shortage is the problem. So inform this forum what the hell is fueling this pilot shortage? I can guess people paid to stay home, covid concerns, retirements however those reasons may not be valid anymore so what are they?

Courtesy: Fox Business Channel

American Airlines Ending Service In Three Cities Due To Pilot Shortage

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/american-airlines-ending-service-three-cities-pilot-shortage
 
ATLgaUSA
Posts: 311
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2005 6:58 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:12 am

I used yo discuss aviation frequently on the old AOL boards with a guy who went by FlyCrazy or something like that. He was a huge TOL cheerleader. I’m guessing that if he still cares, this is sad news for him.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 692
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:39 pm

flyCMH wrote:
This is incredibly sad news. AA has a long history of serving TOL in one form or another. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, AA service from TOL looked pretty solid with multiple ER4s to ORD and CR9s to CLT. It's really unfortunate that the current state of the US aviation industry has resulted in a city with a metropolitan area of nearly 700,000 people without access to a network carrier from the local airport. Though the saddest thing is knowing some of the staff and supporters of the local AA service that have devoted their careers to trying to make the service work. My heart goes out to them.

As many have already mentioned, Toledo is double-cursed: once with easy access to a global hub an hour to the north, and second with the local airport being incredibly inconvenient to a good portion of the metro. One could argue being an hour from a global hub is no curse at all. But it does make a difference having the option of a quick drive to an easy facility within a half-hour distance compared to absolutely needing to drive an hour (in favorable conditions) to an enormous facility where you must park your car and, should you miss your flight or it cancel, potentially have to do the trip twice to get back home or spend for an unanticipated hotel stay.

That being said, there could be a saving grace for Toledo. Ohio recently established an Air Service Restoration grant for all commercial airports in the state:

https://www.jobsohio.com/programs-servi ... n-program/

Toledo needs to lobby and lobby HARD for some of that money to attract an airline to replace AA. And who better than none other than United Airlines. United hasn't been seen scheduled in TOL for 30-some years. A lot has changed since then. While United is also facing the same issues as all other US carriers when it comes to crew scheduling, there could be the golden opportunity to come in and be the saving grace TOL needs. They could start by replacing the service lost to ORD with a 3x weekday service. Depending on the stipulations of the JobsOhio grant, UA could open access to the East Coast, either via EWR or IAD, though likely the latter if routes would be flown with 50-seat jets. It would be nice to have CR7s or even E70/E75s should TOL be considered, but at this point I'd be happy just to have them there. Again, this would definitely be a Hail Mary scenario where the airport, city, and state would somehow be successful in lobbying an airline like United to consider such a proposal. But hope springs eternal, especially in this industry,


"Seems like TOL could make a case for more service: https://cdn.toledo.oh.gov/uploads/docum ... .30.21.pdf"
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9502
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:18 pm

The stats on in the summary / conclusion section on page 53 tell all you need to know: https://cdn.toledo.oh.gov/uploads/docum ... .30.21.pdf"

1.2 M residents in the TOL catchment areas:
90% of the TOL catchment area uses other airports.
DTW received the largest amount of the leakage - 87% of interational & 83% of domestic
DL captures 45% of the leakage, and NK captures 33% of the leakage
Markets that have a nonstop out of TOL retain 45% of the passengers versus 8% in markets that do not

The only real hope for TOL is for G4 to add additional frequencies and markets.
 
mikejepp
Posts: 281
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 11:47 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:38 pm

KarlB737 wrote:
I am surprised that this story even made it to Fox Business but it has. They're primarily claiming that pilot shortage is the problem. So inform this forum what the hell is fueling this pilot shortage? I can guess people paid to stay home, covid concerns, retirements however those reasons may not be valid anymore so what are they?

Courtesy: Fox Business Channel

American Airlines Ending Service In Three Cities Due To Pilot Shortage

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/american-airlines-ending-service-three-cities-pilot-shortage


Covid was the straw that broke the camel's back here but they were barely keeping up before it happened.

The airline industry has spent decades destroying the piloting profession. Look at the whole regional airline model, what they used to pay their pilots until recently (poverty wages), how hard they're worked (6+ flights a day with bare minimum terrible rest rules), etc. On the mainline end of things, outsourcing, having their contracts and pensions destroyed through bankruptcies, furloughs after 9/11, etc. They created this situation where being a pilot just no longer seemed like a desirable career and people with the ability to do so became doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc instead. It is now catching up to them in a big way... this pilot shortage has been 20+ years in the making. The only fix is to make the piloting career one that is clearly desirable and even now they still aren't treating their pilot groups well... a large number of airline pilot groups are working under expired contracts. They're picketing across the country (I heard Southwest has over 1000 pilots picketing today in DAL). In some cases mainline pay is less than regional pay. Not only that, but they're squeezing every drop they can out of the pilots they have... working them a record number of days off, unpredictable schedules that wreck havoc on family life, child care, work/life balance, etc.

And people are surprised theres a shortage?
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1825
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:42 pm

Toledo's situation (and others coming) points out IMO the need to modify the regulation that limits single pilot operation to 9-seaters. Would it be the end of the world if that number were raised to 12 or 14?

The US has a EAS subsidy because it sees the benefit of air travel to cities that can't support 50 (now 70) seaters. Might cities maintain connections to the world if smaller aircraft were made more profitable?
 
USAirKid
Posts: 1298
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:42 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:36 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Toledo's situation (and others coming) points out IMO the need to modify the regulation that limits single pilot operation to 9-seaters. Would it be the end of the world if that number were raised to 12 or 14?

The US has a EAS subsidy because it sees the benefit of air travel to cities that can't support 50 (now 70) seaters. Might cities maintain connections to the world if smaller aircraft were made more profitable?


The Toledo situation doesn’t warrant EAS service. It’s within close driving distance of very good airline service.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1825
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:02 pm

My point really wasn't that TOL should have EAS subsidies.
There is an advantage for a city to be connected to the aviation system. Recall that we just spent $54 billion dollars because air service is critical to the US economy. Toledo is just the first - another thread talks about Dubuque Iowa losing it's service. Who's next?

I was just throwing out a "what if". Could cities like TOL, DBQ, etc maintain that connection if the planes used could carry just a few more than 9 seats and having a CPL rated pilot instead of a 1500 hr. ATP.
 
NLINK
Posts: 548
Joined: Sat Nov 15, 2003 3:20 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:13 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
My point really wasn't that TOL should have EAS subsidies.
There is an advantage for a city to be connected to the aviation system. Recall that we just spent $54 billion dollars because air service is critical to the US economy. Toledo is just the first - another thread talks about Dubuque Iowa losing it's service. Who's next?

I was just throwing out a "what if". Could cities like TOL, DBQ, etc maintain that connection if the planes used could carry just a few more than 9 seats and having a CPL rated pilot instead of a 1500 hr. ATP.


Toledo is almost a bedroom community to Detroit it’s so close. A lot of large cities take longer to get to the airport if you live in the suburbs than it does to get to DTW from Toledo.
 
jetskipper
Posts: 646
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2001 1:50 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:24 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
My point really wasn't that TOL should have EAS subsidies.
There is an advantage for a city to be connected to the aviation system. Recall that we just spent $54 billion dollars because air service is critical to the US economy. Toledo is just the first - another thread talks about Dubuque Iowa losing it's service. Who's next?

I was just throwing out a "what if". Could cities like TOL, DBQ, etc maintain that connection if the planes used could carry just a few more than 9 seats and having a CPL rated pilot instead of a 1500 hr. ATP.


That may work out of remote cites in the Great Plains. They couldn’t get people to fly on a 50-Seat RJ to Chicago out of Toledo, no way they are going to jump on a Caravan to Chicago when they can drive to Detroit.
 
Lootess
Posts: 866
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:04 am

DTW-TOL on SF3 reminded me further back when US used to have PHL-ACY on B1900 and here we are today with Landline service.

I don't consider PNE the same situation as TOL, just a secondary, regional airport to Seattle as Everett is part of Puget Sound. Almost like saying Boeing isn't in Seattle.
 
WA707atMSP
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:16 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:59 pm

Before DTW was designated as Detroit's main airport, the Detroit area seriously considered several other locations for the city's main airport.

The plan that was most seriously considered was to locate the airport north of Detroit in Warren, where the General Motors Technical Center was subsequently built. Another proposal called for the airport to be built on a man made island in Lake St. Clair offshore from Grosse Pointe and St Clair Shores, and a third proposal called for YQG to be the area's main airport; a second bridge across the Detroit River would have been built for traffic to and from YQG, with a US domestic terminal built on a separate part of YQG so passengers would not have had to clear Canadian customs.

If any of these proposals had come to fruition, Detroit's main airport would have been much further from Toledo than DTW is, and Toledo would not have lost so many passengers to DTW.
 
ChrisPBacon
Topic Author
Posts: 67
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:14 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:44 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The only real hope for TOL is for G4 to add additional frequencies and markets.


Just goes to show how incompetent the Port Authority has been over the past 25 years.

G4 has been here close to 20 years. We've had PIE/SFB/PGD forever. Just got AZA. Nothing more than 2x/week. It'll be interesting to see if AZA works, you just really don't hear locals talking about vacationing or retiring to Arizona, not compared to Florida. Clearly TOL is a profitable market for G4, but they must not see it as a growth market, that's for sure. FNT does better for G4 because it is more convenient to north suburban Detroit. I don't see why any other ULCC would want to come here. If Avelo or Breeze wanted to serve Detroit, they'd probably go elsewhere.
 
KarlB737
Posts: 2997
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:58 pm

ChrisPBacon wrote:
Just goes to show how incompetent the Port Authority has been over the past 25 years.


Can a shipping port authority successfully manage a commercial airport? How about an experienced professional airport management team instead.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1773
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:38 pm

Markets like TOL, ELM, ERI have been on life support since 2001. They have been hobbling along but it isn’t sustainable anymore.
 
nwt0
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:21 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:04 am

It seems like a lot of markets are going to be left out in the cold now with the smaller regional jets being retired with no replacements and the prospects of even tiny 19-seaters coming back to fill those service gaps. What markets currently served by AA or its regional partners are most at risk of losing all of their service in the midst of this storm?
 
USAirKid
Posts: 1298
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:42 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:24 am

KarlB737 wrote:
ChrisPBacon wrote:
Just goes to show how incompetent the Port Authority has been over the past 25 years.


Can a shipping port authority successfully manage a commercial airport? How about an experienced professional airport management team instead.



It’s non uncommon to have the airport managed by a Port Authority. SEA and BOS are run by port authorities. They’re similar businesses, they maintain capital infrastructure to lease to commercial operators.

Often the airport side of the business does have aviation professionals running the airport.

This model usually is to put the sea and air ports into their own government organization that is responsible for running the ports and working for economic growth, so it doesn’t become a pawn of city and county governments.
 
nwt0
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:21 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:31 am

How much of AA’s ORD network will be gone once the ERJ-145s are all retired? It seems like most domestic destinations that AA serves from ORD use ERJ-145s for their flights, especially the regional destinations within the Midwest.
 
jplatts
Posts: 5874
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:31 am

nwt0 wrote:
How much of AA’s ORD network will be gone once the ERJ-145s are all retired? It seems like most domestic destinations that AA serves from ORD use ERJ-145s for their flights, especially the regional destinations within the Midwest.


While AA currently only has ERJ-145's on the ORD-DAY route, AA would likely upgauge ORD-DAY to larger regional jets. DAY is in a much bigger market (by both number of passengers per year and metropolitan area population) than the markets that AA is pulling out of. AA also currently has a bigger presence at DAY than DL or UA do to support ORD-DAY nonstop service on AA.

AA still operates ERJ-145's on its CVG-ORD/PHL routes, but there are still some AA CVG-ORD flights on E-170/E-175/CRJ-700 regional jets starting on 8/16/2022 through end of schedule. AA would certainly continue to operate CVG-ORD nonstop service as long as AA has a hub at ORD with CVG being an important market that AA needs to serve nonstop from ORD to remain relevant to its Chicago FF base and corporate contracts in the Chicago area.

CVG/DAY also have a much bigger AA presence than most of the markets that are losing AA nonstop service to ORD.

CHO recently lost AA nonstop service to ORD, but still has AA nonstop service to CLT and LGA. AA CHO-PHL nonstop service is currently suspended, but scheduled to resume on 1/3/2023.
 
FlyingSicilian
Posts: 1860
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 7:53 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:48 am

DAY also has a lot of traffic for Uncle Sam in the mix that Toledo does not.
 
bchandl
Posts: 701
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 7:49 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:11 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
ATLgaUSA wrote:
It’s just been a matter of time for Toledo. Detroit adequately serves the market.

That of course is a matter of opinion.


A 45 minute drive to a large airport with a wide array of domestic connections, TPAC, TATL and Caribbean destinations, and mainline service to basically any other airline hub you want.

That more than adequately serves a 3rd tier Ohio rust belt city that's lost more than 1/3rd of it's population in the last 50 years and what's left is statistically poorer than average in this country. There are numerous cities in this country with far more population, wealth and industry where someone can live and not be within 45 min of an airport with the breadth of options offered at DTW.

It's not really an opinion. It's a realization by every major airline that the city, given the limited PAX demand of TOL and the catchment of the DTW airport that it makes no sense to offer TOL. It never made sense to me why anyone was taking TOL flights anyways given the price point that was offered any time I looked at TOL vs DTW.

Unfortunately, feelings don't pay the bills.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 683
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:47 pm

bchandl wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
ATLgaUSA wrote:
It’s just been a matter of time for Toledo. Detroit adequately serves the market.

That of course is a matter of opinion.


A 45 minute drive to a large airport with a wide array of domestic connections, TPAC, TATL and Caribbean destinations, and mainline service to basically any other airline hub you want.

That more than adequately serves a 3rd tier Ohio rust belt city that's lost more than 1/3rd of it's population in the last 50 years and what's left is statistically poorer than average in this country. There are numerous cities in this country with far more population, wealth and industry where someone can live and not be within 45 min of an airport with the breadth of options offered at DTW.

It's not really an opinion. It's a realization by every major airline that the city, given the limited PAX demand of TOL and the catchment of the DTW airport that it makes no sense to offer TOL. It never made sense to me why anyone was taking TOL flights anyways given the price point that was offered any time I looked at TOL vs DTW.

Unfortunately, feelings don't pay the bills.

I think you misundstand the difference between an opinion and a fact. "Adequate" by definition is an opinion. It depends on who is making the stament and what the standard is. You may be perfectly fine with leaving your house an extra hour before a flight. That doesn't mean it isn't completely unacceptable for someone else.

Airlines don't think in terms of adequate service. They think in terms of profit. In this case they had to weigh the traffic they will loose to those choosing differnt airlines at DTW and the revenue they get from those passangers and their higher fares at TOL and the potential profit from using the assets dedicated to TOL somewhere else.

I am now about to leave for an aiport that is 15 minutes farther than my preferred airport because the fare was $700 less. However if I had to make that extra 15 minute drive every time I would consider the air service to my area inadequate and would live somewhere else.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 692
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:07 pm

Seems to me TOL needs a strong marketing director to market the airport to airlines and to the 700k people that live there. The population is there to support (at a minimum) flights to ORD and/or ATL that are timed/priced correctly. The airport might want to reduce parking to low cost or free and ensure quick move thru TSA...and quick baggage check-in and claim. All of which would add to the convenience of using TOL vs the trek to DTW. Need to also market the fact that a cx in ATL is usually delay free....and can also be delay free at ORD. NS is wonderful but CX is not the end of the world. Also need to market to FEDEX and UPS to get some air cargo flights....to help with the economics of operating the airport.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 692
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:31 pm

For comparison....SBB has MSA of 314k people. South Bend International Airport’s three air carriers provide nonstop flights to ten cities: Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Fort Myers/Punta Gorda, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, New York City/Newark, Orlando/Sanford, Phoenix/Mesa, and Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg with connections world-wide. South Bend International’s multi-modal terminal serves over one million air, rail and bus passengers each year. SBB is within 100 miles of MDW, ORD, GRR. SBB's airport director (Tim O' Donnell) was just hired by TOL. I think he has a good story to tell about TOL. Wishing him well
 
NLINK
Posts: 548
Joined: Sat Nov 15, 2003 3:20 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:13 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
For comparison....SBB has MSA of 314k people. South Bend International Airport’s three air carriers provide nonstop flights to ten cities: Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Fort Myers/Punta Gorda, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, New York City/Newark, Orlando/Sanford, Phoenix/Mesa, and Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg with connections world-wide. South Bend International’s multi-modal terminal serves over one million air, rail and bus passengers each year. SBB is within 100 miles of MDW, ORD, GRR. SBB's airport director (Tim O' Donnell) was just hired by TOL. I think he has a good story to tell about TOL. Wishing him well


South Bend airport code is SBN.

South Bend has Notre Dame College which helps the airport. South Bend Airport to ORD is about a 2 hour drive and the drive from Toledo to DTW airport is about 45 minutes.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9502
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:24 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Seems to me TOL needs a strong marketing director to market the airport to airlines and to the 700k people that live there. The population is there to support (at a minimum) flights to ORD and/or ATL that are timed/priced correctly. The airport might want to reduce parking to low cost or free and ensure quick move thru TSA...and quick baggage check-in and claim. All of which would add to the convenience of using TOL vs the trek to DTW. Need to also market the fact that a cx in ATL is usually delay free....and can also be delay free at ORD. NS is wonderful but CX is not the end of the world. Also need to market to FEDEX and UPS to get some air cargo flights....to help with the economics of operating the airport.

They have had all this and it has not worked. In the current environment there is literally almost nothing any airport / marketing director could to do get a legacy to restore access to places like ORD or ATL.
AA is leaving after flying ORD for decades trying CLT as well. DL is not going to utlize scare resources of anything (gates at ATL, staff, airplanes to fling a few flights to ATL when they have like 12x flights to ATL 45 minutes up the road, all on large narrowbody & the occasional widebody flight.

We are witnessing the implosion of regional air service on 50 seaters currently before our very eyes. Its been decades in the making.
We went through a big round of this ~15-20 years ago when all the turboprops were retired and that left many smaller markets unviable.

Right its the 50 seat RJs that were already on their way out with age, but the pilot shortage along with the fall-off of business travel in many markets has just accelerated the issue.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9502
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:30 pm

Comparing pure population numbers is never the end-all, be all metric to use when comparing air service.
SBN & TOL are vastly different markets.

#1 SBN is farther drive-time and convenience from a large global hub. Its a ~2.5+ hour drive through miserable awful Chicago traffic. Its not a traffic-free 45 minute drive from Toledo area up to DTW. And even then ORD is a much bigger challenge to navigate than DTW which is super easy in/out, non-delay prone, plentiful parking versus ORD which is way more busy and congested

#2 There is a more "wealth" and disposable income in SBN both from the local business company, and a the large number of good paying university related jobs (e.g., faculty, administration, operations

#3 Inbound Notre Dame related traffic - athletics, rich alumni, recruiting, conferences; a large university a large well-monied alumni base
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 692
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:01 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Comparing pure population numbers is never the end-all, be all metric to use when comparing air service.
SBN & TOL are vastly different markets.

"#1 SBN is farther drive-time and convenience from a large global hub. Its a ~2.5+ hour drive through miserable awful Chicago traffic. Its not a traffic-free 45 minute drive from Toledo area up to DTW. And even then ORD is a much bigger challenge to navigate than DTW which is super easy in/out, non-delay prone, plentiful parking versus ORD which is way more busy and congested. AGREE

#2 There is a more "wealth" and disposable income in SBN both from the local business company, and a the large number of good paying university related jobs (e.g., faculty, administration, operations. DISAGREE.. SBN GDP = $17B. TOL GDP = $36B

#3 Inbound Notre Dame related traffic - athletics, rich alumni, recruiting, conferences; a large university a large well-monied alumni base
. AGREE BUT SEE #2

SBN with all of its positives is still > 50% smaller than Toledo. I have no skin in the game. Just seems that TOL should be able to make it work....CAK, FNT are other similar markets that make it work; GSO makes it work...its population is much larger but it is close to both CLT and RDU
 
Lootess
Posts: 866
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:41 pm

SBN has Notre Dame, and it's even served from several hubs, 2-hour CR2 flight to ATL. You can tell who isn't into college sports as they are in the Atlantic Coast Conference (quasi for football) so they have a lot of needs to the coast.

People playing this should make it work hand, but hadn't really thought about why passengers don't buy tickets and instead drive up to DTW. Why should I buy a ticket TOL-ORD-LAX when I may have to sit though regional delays, and a 45 minute connection when I can drive that time to DTW go non-stop, or maybe I need to go to DTW-AMS for a Europe connection, this one is easy. The factors come into play here that a hub flight to TOL is already working against itself.
 
USAirKid
Posts: 1298
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:42 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:41 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Comparing pure population numbers is never the end-all, be all metric to use when comparing air service.
SBN & TOL are vastly different markets.

"#1 SBN is farther drive-time and convenience from a large global hub. Its a ~2.5+ hour drive through miserable awful Chicago traffic. Its not a traffic-free 45 minute drive from Toledo area up to DTW. And even then ORD is a much bigger challenge to navigate than DTW which is super easy in/out, non-delay prone, plentiful parking versus ORD which is way more busy and congested. AGREE

#2 There is a more "wealth" and disposable income in SBN both from the local business company, and a the large number of good paying university related jobs (e.g., faculty, administration, operations. DISAGREE.. SBN GDP = $17B. TOL GDP = $36B

#3 Inbound Notre Dame related traffic - athletics, rich alumni, recruiting, conferences; a large university a large well-monied alumni base
. AGREE BUT SEE #2

SBN with all of its positives is still > 50% smaller than Toledo. I have no skin in the game. Just seems that TOL should be able to make it work....CAK, FNT are other similar markets that make it work; GSO makes it work...its population is much larger but it is close to both CLT and RDU


Be careful when comparing GDPs. As mentioned earlier Toledo has a few automobile plants. Those produce significant amount of product by dollar, but much of that value is in parts that were produced elsewhere. Also this might not cleanly translate into air traffic demand because wages are likely a better indicator of that.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 692
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:53 pm

Per capita income in TOL = $22.6k; Per capita income in SBN = $25k. TOL has 717k MSA; SBN has 300k. TOL has much more money to spend in total than SBN. Both cities are rust belt with declining or stagnant economies.

Crunch away on facts: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/ ... /INC110220
 
bchandl
Posts: 701
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 7:49 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:08 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
bchandl wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
That of course is a matter of opinion.


A 45 minute drive to a large airport with a wide array of domestic connections, TPAC, TATL and Caribbean destinations, and mainline service to basically any other airline hub you want.

That more than adequately serves a 3rd tier Ohio rust belt city that's lost more than 1/3rd of it's population in the last 50 years and what's left is statistically poorer than average in this country. There are numerous cities in this country with far more population, wealth and industry where someone can live and not be within 45 min of an airport with the breadth of options offered at DTW.

It's not really an opinion. It's a realization by every major airline that the city, given the limited PAX demand of TOL and the catchment of the DTW airport that it makes no sense to offer TOL. It never made sense to me why anyone was taking TOL flights anyways given the price point that was offered any time I looked at TOL vs DTW.

Unfortunately, feelings don't pay the bills.

I think you misundstand the difference between an opinion and a fact. "Adequate" by definition is an opinion. It depends on who is making the stament and what the standard is. You may be perfectly fine with leaving your house an extra hour before a flight. That doesn't mean it isn't completely unacceptable for someone else.

Airlines don't think in terms of adequate service. They think in terms of profit. In this case they had to weigh the traffic they will loose to those choosing differnt airlines at DTW and the revenue they get from those passangers and their higher fares at TOL and the potential profit from using the assets dedicated to TOL somewhere else.

I am now about to leave for an aiport that is 15 minutes farther than my preferred airport because the fare was $700 less. However if I had to make that extra 15 minute drive every time I would consider the air service to my area inadequate and would live somewhere else.



I've provided examples of why it's adequately served given Toledo's population, demographics, quality of nearby alternatives, and the (usually) high price of hometown airport legacy services.

You've provided a semantics game that when you see through it you say it's not adequately served because your feelings say so. People who live on the west side of Denver (think Lakewood) have a longer drive (time and mileage) to DEN than downtown toledo to DTW. So I guess by your deeply flawed, borderline non-existent logic west Denver is underserved and they need a regional airport to feed DEN and SLC because it's not practical to drive to KDEN?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9502
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:23 pm

The stats on in the summary / conclusion section on page 53 tell all you need to know: https://cdn.toledo.oh.gov/uploads/docum ... .30.21.pdf"

1.2 M residents in the TOL catchment areas:
90% of the TOL catchment area uses other airports.
DTW received the largest amount of the leakage - 87% of interational & 83% of domestic
DL captures 45% of the leakage, and NK captures 33% of the leakage
Markets that have a nonstop out of TOL retain 45% of the passengers versus 8% in markets that do not

The only real hope for TOL is for G4 to add additional frequencies and markets.
 
iFlyDTW
Posts: 317
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:33 pm

Re: AA to end service at TOL

Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:25 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The stats on in the summary / conclusion section on page 53 tell all you need to know: https://cdn.toledo.oh.gov/uploads/docum ... .30.21.pdf"

1.2 M residents in the TOL catchment areas:
90% of the TOL catchment area uses other airports.
DTW received the largest amount of the leakage - 87% of interational & 83% of domestic
DL captures 45% of the leakage, and NK captures 33% of the leakage
Markets that have a nonstop out of TOL retain 45% of the passengers versus 8% in markets that do not

The only real hope for TOL is for G4 to add additional frequencies and markets.
I think Allegiant is there to stay, if Allegiant were to leave Toledo for Detroit they would have to take Flint with them as well and consolidate in Detroit which I know they won’t do.

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