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avier
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Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:15 am

Air India is considering a large order for 300 narrow-body jets, for either the Airbus A320neo family or Boeing 737 Max planes or a mix of both. This is in addition to their likely order for A350 aircraft, being discussed on another thread. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1473849

https://www.hindustantimes.com/business ... 36737.html
 
portola2727
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:18 am

I wonder if the airports in India could expand as much as AI is looking to expand. I know Chennai(my home airport in India) is very much constrained at the moment and I wonder if AI could expand further at the airport.
 
sfojvjets
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:32 am

Holy crap. That's a big order.

I'm thinking it will either be a single type narrowbody fleet of A320neo family aircraft or a mix of MAXes and neos. Since they already have neos, it won't make sense for them to just order MAXes only. At the same time, no doubt Boeing will want to negotiate a great deal for MAXes to increase their market share in the Indian narrowbody market. Airbus has really run away with that market and now could be a good time for Boeing to get their foot in the door. Air India ordering a mixed narrowbody fleet would definitely be a win for Boeing.
 
MDC862
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:44 am

350s, A320s, 737-Max...where is AI getting billions to make this a reality or is this fantasyland? Cheap money is no longer available with a world-wide recession looming.
 
dhdaviation
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:58 am

NEO would be great for AI, while AI Express could use the MAX.
 
DCA350
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:00 am

Wow, that's a lot of capacity coming online.. If I'm not mistaken Indigo has over 500 NEOs on the way. Plus a few other domestic carriers as competition.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:15 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ody-planes

Bloomberg reporting it’s either going to be NEOs, MAX or a mix.

I’m hoping for a mix and I’m thinking XLRs and Max-10s or something
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:57 am

Opus99 wrote:
Bloomberg reporting it’s either going to be NEOs, MAX or a mix.

Bummer, if that means no A220s... would've love to have seen those in AI's livery.

That, and less chance of a MAX order, had they been chosen, as well.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:11 am

MDC862 wrote:
350s, A320s, 737-Max...where is AI getting billions to make this a reality or is this fantasyland? Cheap money is no longer available with a world-wide recession looming.


They have a new wealthy parent, and of course access to leasing companies for sale and lease back as used by many airlines.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:24 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Bloomberg reporting it’s either going to be NEOs, MAX or a mix.

Bummer, if that means no A220s... would've love to have seen those in AI's livery.

That, and less chance of a MAX order, had they been chosen, as well.

You never know with these things. A220 might work it’s way in
 
DIJKKIJK
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:43 am

portola2727 wrote:
I wonder if the airports in India could expand as much as AI is looking to expand. I know Chennai(my home airport in India) is very much constrained at the moment and I wonder if AI could expand further at the airport.


A lot of these will be replacements for the older/leased A320s/ 737-8's of AI, Air Asia India, Air India Express and the mainline Air India fleet.
 
T4thH
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:44 am

The A320 is sold out till 2025 and more or less virtually sold out till 2028?

They will just not be able to order 300x A320 family jets as there are no slots available, they will have to buy the MAX.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:06 am

I guess it will be a combination of 8200s and A321(XLRs), possibly a 60/40 split towards the 737s. Airbus production constraints will play in Boeings favour and the 8200 is just a beast in its class. Still Boeing has nothing else to offer that can realisticly compete above the 8200 so Airbus will get some orders too, and luckily for them, they will get the juicy ones.

My guess is 150-200 737s (realistically valued at about 6.75bn$-9bn$) and 100-150 A321s (valued at 5.5bn$-8.25bn$). So both companies can claim a victory. Boeing for the volume and Airbus for the massive future profit on these deliveries.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:10 am

Tata want to rebuild AI?

They are considering order 50 widebodies and 300 narrowbodies.

The fleet is just less than the US3 + EU3 + CN3 + WN + FR
Last edited by chunhimlai on Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
JetAirways
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:12 am

portola2727 wrote:
I wonder if the airports in India could expand as much as AI is looking to expand. I know Chennai(my home airport in India) is very much constrained at the moment and I wonder if AI could expand further at the airport.


Construction of Navi Mumbai and Noida International Airport will create a lot of slots falling within the catchment area of Delhi and Mumbai. The Indian Gov has been investing a lot in terms of airport infrastructure such as the 4th runway at DEL along with expanding T1 and development of new airports across the country. Even Chennai will be getting a second airport - https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 553905.cms

Furthermore, is there a SFP version of the MAX 8 or the A320neo? IIRC almost all 738s at Air India Express are SFP versions. I guess that would be a consideration for replacing the Air India Express fleet that are used from Airports that do not have the best runway conditions?
 
chiad
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:53 am

T4thH wrote:
The A320 is sold out till 2025 and more or less virtually sold out till 2028?

They will just not be able to order 300x A320 family jets as there are no slots available, they will have to buy the MAX.


There should be many available slots as the NEO's planned production will hit 75 units per month in 2025.
Also the cancelled QR frames should make more slots available before then.
 
CRJ900
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:30 am

They have no interest in operating 90-seat Dash-8-400 on smaller destinations like SpiceJet?
 
avier
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:42 am

FluidFlow wrote:
I guess it will be a combination of 8200s and A321(XLRs), possibly a 60/40 split towards the 737s.

737-8200 MAX only makes sense if it in all Y cabin, that would work for their LCC arm. Otherwise, for an FSC in dual cabin layout, I wonder what propose does it serve.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:46 am

avier wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
I guess it will be a combination of 8200s and A321(XLRs), possibly a 60/40 split towards the 737s.

737-8200 MAX only makes sense if it in all Y cabin, that would work for their LCC arm. Otherwise, for an FSC in dual cabin layout, I wonder what propose does it serve.

Air India Express might be interested in some 8200s. Not sure what the long term vision/plan is for that airline though under the new ownership.
 
avier
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:15 pm

Polot wrote:
Air India Express might be interested in some 8200s. Not sure what the long term vision/plan is for that airline though under the new ownership.

They do plan to expand IX, but mostly int'l. They're looking at expanding to around 30 countries including, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam per their CCO.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 79321.html

Though I don't know how well the 737MAX performs for some of the long int'l routes they are planning.
 
DartHerald
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:22 pm

T4thH wrote:
The A320 is sold out till 2025 and more or less virtually sold out till 2028?

They will just not be able to order 300x A320 family jets as there are no slots available, they will have to buy the MAX.


I'm pretty sure that Airbus will move mountains if they have to in order to secure a 300 plane order! I'm sure that there are still customers on their books who would breathe a sigh of relief if they were to be encouraged to let their slots slip a little......
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:35 pm

Some might find a happy home in AirAsia India.

"Antitrust regulator the Competition Commission of India (CCI) said on June 14 that it “approves the acquisition of the entire shareholding in AirAsia India by Air India.”

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... asia-india
 
avier
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:09 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Some might find a happy home in AirAsia India.

"Antitrust regulator the Competition Commission of India (CCI) said on June 14 that it “approves the acquisition of the entire shareholding in AirAsia India by Air India.”

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... asia-india

AirAsia India brand will disappear and will be integrated into either IX or AI, as AirAsia Bhd pulls out entire stake. Unless, Tata group are willing to pay royalty to Air Asia for the brand.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 4:20 pm

T4thH wrote:
The A320 is sold out till 2025 and more or less virtually sold out till 2028?

They will just not be able to order 300x A320 family jets as there are no slots available, they will have to buy the MAX.


An airline, AI or otherwise, does not have to buy anything of the sort. AI are most probably not requiring these within the next few years, plus output increases will help. None of us here know how many delivery slots are actually available with a manufacturer.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:03 pm

avier wrote:
AirAsia India brand will disappear and will be integrated into either IX or AI, as AirAsia Bhd pulls out entire stake. Unless, Tata group are willing to pay royalty to Air Asia for the brand.


There is a case in India against the Air Asia parent chairman, Tony. He will never step foot in India again for fear of being arrested. This is his chance to bail out of Air Asia India and hope they will forget about the case.
 
Cardude2
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:21 pm

I want to remind you all that Airbus was sold out with the A320NEO slots in a mix of orders and options, BUT THEN the whole Russia thing happened and now theirs NTUs from carriers such as Smart avia for 39 A320NEOs and other orders probably through lessors such as Aercap. Additionally, they are now allowed to sell the Qatar A321NEOs. Plus they probably want to order into the future and have one series at each airline (aka Air India express being all maxes and Air India being all airbuses).
 
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:55 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Wow, that's a lot of capacity coming online.. If I'm not mistaken Indigo has over 500 NEOs on the way. Plus a few other domestic carriers as competition.

This order is huge. Combined with Indigo, it will make it tough for smaller Indian airlines.

For this size of order, assuming it is over a decade of deliveries, both companies will make slots available.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a split MAX/NEO order. It would be a pleasant surprise to see the A220 added.

Lightsaber
 
edealinfo
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me to see a split MAX/NEO order.
Lightsaber


For the scale of the order, that would seem the most logical, in terms of slot availability.
 
DCA350
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:04 pm

lightsaber wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Wow, that's a lot of capacity coming online.. If I'm not mistaken Indigo has over 500 NEOs on the way. Plus a few other domestic carriers as competition.

This order is huge. Combined with Indigo, it will make it tough for smaller Indian airlines.

For this size of order, assuming it is over a decade of deliveries, both companies will make slots available.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a split MAX/NEO order. It would be a pleasant surprise to see the A220 added.

Lightsaber


I agree on a split. The sheer volume of NEO orders will keep the MAX alive in many RFPs. I could see 60/40 NEOs.. MAX8 200s and A321s are a nice combo
 
smi0006
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:12 pm

avier wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Some might find a happy home in AirAsia India.

"Antitrust regulator the Competition Commission of India (CCI) said on June 14 that it “approves the acquisition of the entire shareholding in AirAsia India by Air India.”

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... asia-india

AirAsia India brand will disappear and will be integrated into either IX or AI, as AirAsia Bhd pulls out entire stake. Unless, Tata group are willing to pay royalty to Air Asia for the brand.


I would rebrand IX - I never think it’s a good idea to have an LCC brand close or linked to the mothership full Service carrier. Creates confusion and degrades the reputation of the full service carrier. Not saying they keep the Air Asia brand either. What is Air India Express brand reputation like in India in contrast to AI?

321 and 320 family in general seems a great fit for the congested Indian market to me, I’d simplify both fleets as much as possible - AI/IX like QF/JQ it allows them to shuffle the fleet and deliveries between which ever brand the market needs suit. Would the Indian market support widebodies dedicated to trunk domestic/regional flying like- thinking CX/JL 330 and 350 set up?
 
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:53 am

As I understood the full "leak", plan is for 300 total aircraft for delivery from 2024 onwards, 70% of which will be narrowbody - thats 210 narrowbodies and 70-80 widebodies.

AI operates 49 widebodies as of now so 80 widebodies will completely replace the current widebody fleet and account for growth. The 210 narrowbodies will be used to replace the A320ceo fleet of both Air India(70), Air India Express (40), Air Asia India(50) and Vistara(50) in the future. Number sounds about right when seen as a combined fleet.

I have seen 100 A321NEO figure been thrown around. So 110 A320N + 100 A321N along 70-80 widebodies.

This order is Airbus' to lose.

IMO, Air India will emulate the former IC model for domestic where the largest aircraft will be deployed on the largest P2P routes and work outwards from there. So BOM, DEL, MAA, CCU with BLR, GAU and HYD added to the "A321 Trunkliner" mix. Except for these 30 trunkliner pairs. They will compete mainly on Capacity rather than frequency. But I do expect to see "Same day return" become a major cornerstone of their route planning. The former IC used to offer same day return between 35 city pairs back in the day. These will return. Air India and Air Asia India have a very complementary network on domestic so the merger will undoubtedly see a massive increase in AI market share. The DEL base will stay, but a number of hubs that were withdrawn in 2007-2009 period to build up DEL will now return. The big questionmark is Slots.

For longhaul, North America will be focus market with JFK, ORD, SFO, IAD, YVR, YYZ along with newer stations like IAH, LAX. The A350-1000 to replace the 77W and A350-900 to replace the 787-8 seems like a good combo. The A330-900 stands a chance instead of A350-900.

Lets hope this goes through and does not fall prey to the kind of lobbying that India is notorious for. The big bad Blue wolf is the new Jet as far as "Policy Management" is concerned!
 
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:17 am

If AI gets the 737 MAX, do you think some of them would go to Air India Express to replace their 737-800's. I haven't seen any mention of the future of the IX fleet.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:47 am

BawliBooch wrote:

#1 I have seen 100 A321NEO figure been thrown around. So 110 A320N + 100 A321N along 70-80 widebodies.

#2 The A330-900 stands a chance instead of A350-900.

# 3 The big bad Blue wolf is the new Jet as far as "Policy Management" is concerned!


#1: your putting all the eggs in Airbus' basket. I think this would be a long shot because of a) insufficient available production-slots with Airbus, b) the Tatas may want to hedge, and c) given the scale of the order, God only knows how much political pressure will be brought to bear.

#2: For which potential routes - The Gulf?

#3: That went over my head. Care to explain? Thanks.
 
swapcv
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:03 am

BawliBooch wrote:
As I understood the full "leak", plan is for 300 total aircraft for delivery from 2024 onwards, 70% of which will be narrowbody - thats 210 narrowbodies and 70-80 widebodies.

AI operates 49 widebodies as of now so 80 widebodies will completely replace the current widebody fleet and account for growth. The 210 narrowbodies will be used to replace the A320ceo fleet of both Air India(70), Air India Express (40), Air Asia India(50) and Vistara(50) in the future. Number sounds about right when seen as a combined fleet.

I have seen 100 A321NEO figure been thrown around. So 110 A320N + 100 A321N along 70-80 widebodies.

This order is Airbus' to lose.

IMO, Air India will emulate the former IC model for domestic where the largest aircraft will be deployed on the largest P2P routes and work outwards from there. So BOM, DEL, MAA, CCU with BLR, GAU and HYD added to the "A321 Trunkliner" mix. Except for these 30 trunkliner pairs. They will compete mainly on Capacity rather than frequency. But I do expect to see "Same day return" become a major cornerstone of their route planning. The former IC used to offer same day return between 35 city pairs back in the day. These will return. Air India and Air Asia India have a very complementary network on domestic so the merger will undoubtedly see a massive increase in AI market share. The DEL base will stay, but a number of hubs that were withdrawn in 2007-2009 period to build up DEL will now return. The big questionmark is Slots.

For longhaul, North America will be focus market with JFK, ORD, SFO, IAD, YVR, YYZ along with newer stations like IAH, LAX. The A350-1000 to replace the 77W and A350-900 to replace the 787-8 seems like a good combo. The A330-900 stands a chance instead of A350-900.

Lets hope this goes through and does not fall prey to the kind of lobbying that India is notorious for. The big bad Blue wolf is the new Jet as far as "Policy Management" is concerned!


To be frank, I don't see the 787-8's going anywhere. Despite those idiotic lease rates, AI might simply renegotiate them to a much favourable rate and keep them in the mix as their utility and versatility is too good for them to be phased out prematurely. If anything their widebody strategy will hark back to the early 2000's when they wished to operate the 777 as a replacement of their 747 fleet while the 787's would go on to replace their A310's. In such an instance, I see them operating 788's as usual but in an expanded role where they'll serve routes that are too small for the combined A350-900 and A350-1000 fleet. Also do not forget, 787-9's are in play as well as Vistara operates them too and that carrier's fate is still being decided right now. If this happens, the entire AIC group fleet will have the most ideal Widebody setup where in trunk/high density international routes are operated by the A350's while the smaller more seasonal or thin long haul routes might end up being serviced by the 787 which was purpose built for such missions.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:30 am

edealinfo wrote:
#1: your putting all the eggs in Airbus' basket. I think this would be a long shot because of a) insufficient available production-slots with Airbus, b) the Tatas may want to hedge, and c) given the scale of the order, God only knows how much political pressure will be brought to bear.

There is precedence for "putting all eggs in one basket" as you put it. The 737MAX does not make sense anyway you look at it. Air India, Air asia India and Vistara all operate the A320neo. AIX fleet of 30 737-800 is nearing the age of replacement. Unless Boeing is ready to give away the 737MAX for virtually free, the narrowbody order should be Airbus.

The widebody order is more complex. Boeing has a chance with the 787-9/10, but the A350 is just a better fit for Air India overall. Available in 2 lengths perfectly suited for Air India operations. -1000HGW for North America and -900 for Europe. The -900ULR could be used as an option later to open long thin routes. Biggest advantage would be crew compatibility. A mix of 737MAX and 787 would not offer this advantage.

The 787-8s have some of the most ridiculous lease rates and 18/27 are getting close to their D-Checks. The 77Ws are getting close to their second D-Check. Might just be cheaper to return the leased aircraft, convert the 9 owned 77W/787 to Freighters or something.

I find it funny that people who believe that Southwest is locked into Boeing think that Air India should split 220 aircraft narrowbody order between Boeing and Airbus! :)


#2: For which potential routes - The Gulf?

The A330-900 is an outlier - Perhaps an idea that should be looked at as an alternative to A350-900. Cheaper with more availability and a capable enough platform for upto 5000nm flights. With a lower MTOW, they would offer allow Air India to offer cheaper inventory to key markets in Europe, Middle East and ASEAN markets. the -900 can always be looked at later?
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:03 am

Is there a program to convert the 787-8 into an airborne refueller cum troop transport? Something like the MRTT?

If one were to become available, the 6 owned 787-8 could be converted to that use - after all the Indian Air Force is looking to expand Airborne Refueling capacity! The remaining 21 787, all on atrocious lease rates, approaching their D-checks and most in pretty bad shape (check twitter), could be returned to the lessor as the A350-900/A330neo comes in. The 3/4 owned 77Ws could be converted to Dedicated Cargo or disposed off.
 
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AirIndia
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:58 am

edealinfo wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
# 3 The big bad Blue wolf is the new Jet as far as "Policy Management" is concerned!

#3: That went over my head. Care to explain? Thanks.


In the good old days (90s-2000s) Jet airways was the predominant private carrier with a very influencial promoter who was infamous for lobbying the govt entities for favorable policies towards Jet while placing barriers towards the new comers. The poster indicates that in current times that role of Jet and its promoter is being filled by the current market leader "the bid bad Bluw wolf".

I personally feel it will be tough for the BBBWolf to push through an agenda now that the Govt (1) has lost any effective control over AI and (2) the new promoters are Tata's, old timers in the game.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:14 am

BawliBooch wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
#1: your putting all the eggs in Airbus' basket. I think this would be a long shot because of a) insufficient available production-slots with Airbus, b) the Tatas may want to hedge, and c) given the scale of the order, God only knows how much political pressure will be brought to bear.

There is precedence for "putting all eggs in one basket" as you put it. The 737MAX does not make sense anyway you look at it. Air India, Air asia India and Vistara all operate the A320neo. AIX fleet of 30 737-800 is nearing the age of replacement. Unless Boeing is ready to give away the 737MAX for virtually free, the narrowbody order should be Airbus.

The widebody order is more complex. Boeing has a chance with the 787-9/10, but the A350 is just a better fit for Air India overall. Available in 2 lengths perfectly suited for Air India operations. -1000HGW for North America and -900 for Europe. The -900ULR could be used as an option later to open long thin routes. Biggest advantage would be crew compatibility. A mix of 737MAX and 787 would not offer this advantage.

The 787-8s have some of the most ridiculous lease rates and 18/27 are getting close to their D-Checks. The 77Ws are getting close to their second D-Check. Might just be cheaper to return the leased aircraft, convert the 9 owned 77W/787 to Freighters or something.

I find it funny that people who believe that Southwest is locked into Boeing think that Air India should split 220 aircraft narrowbody order between Boeing and Airbus! :)


#2: For which potential routes - The Gulf?

The A330-900 is an outlier - Perhaps an idea that should be looked at as an alternative to A350-900. Cheaper with more availability and a capable enough platform for upto 5000nm flights. With a lower MTOW, they would offer allow Air India to offer cheaper inventory to key markets in Europe, Middle East and ASEAN markets. the -900 can always be looked at later?

They should return 777s and 787s and order 350s? WOW. I’ve never seen such business happen before, but I guess there’s a first time for everything
 
swapcv
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:41 am

Opus99 wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
#1: your putting all the eggs in Airbus' basket. I think this would be a long shot because of a) insufficient available production-slots with Airbus, b) the Tatas may want to hedge, and c) given the scale of the order, God only knows how much political pressure will be brought to bear.

There is precedence for "putting all eggs in one basket" as you put it. The 737MAX does not make sense anyway you look at it. Air India, Air asia India and Vistara all operate the A320neo. AIX fleet of 30 737-800 is nearing the age of replacement. Unless Boeing is ready to give away the 737MAX for virtually free, the narrowbody order should be Airbus.

The widebody order is more complex. Boeing has a chance with the 787-9/10, but the A350 is just a better fit for Air India overall. Available in 2 lengths perfectly suited for Air India operations. -1000HGW for North America and -900 for Europe. The -900ULR could be used as an option later to open long thin routes. Biggest advantage would be crew compatibility. A mix of 737MAX and 787 would not offer this advantage.

The 787-8s have some of the most ridiculous lease rates and 18/27 are getting close to their D-Checks. The 77Ws are getting close to their second D-Check. Might just be cheaper to return the leased aircraft, convert the 9 owned 77W/787 to Freighters or something.

I find it funny that people who believe that Southwest is locked into Boeing think that Air India should split 220 aircraft narrowbody order between Boeing and Airbus! :)


#2: For which potential routes - The Gulf?

The A330-900 is an outlier - Perhaps an idea that should be looked at as an alternative to A350-900. Cheaper with more availability and a capable enough platform for upto 5000nm flights. With a lower MTOW, they would offer allow Air India to offer cheaper inventory to key markets in Europe, Middle East and ASEAN markets. the -900 can always be looked at later?

They should return 777s and 787s and order 350s? WOW. I’ve never seen such business happen before, but I guess there’s a first time for everything


Its just a wild guess so don't count on it. As for the fate of the 787's, I don't see them going anywhere. AIC has them, Vistara has them, their place is firmly cemented in the group if anything else. Can't say the same for the 777's. -200LR's are fuel guzzlers and the -300ER's are ageing with a old ass cabin further eroding the brand potential. Both A359 and A35K are in prime position to replace the 777 fleet 1 to 1.
 
yashk
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:29 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Available in 2 lengths perfectly suited for Air India operations. -1000HGW for North America and -900 for Europe. The -900ULR could be used as an option later to open long thin routes. Biggest advantage would be crew compatibility. A mix of 737MAX and 787 would not offer this advantage.



The A350-900 standard version can very easily take over all North America routes of AI. I foresee the 359 forming the backbone of AI's North America route strategy as this plane would allow AI to run lower risk experiments such as increase frequency on existing routes, fly to EWR/SFO from BOM and BLR, fly to newer destinations like LAX,IAH,BOS,SEA etc. Few years down the line when AI has cemented its place, then the A350-1000 would come into play to upgauge the most successful routes.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:33 am

BawliBooch wrote:
The 787-8s have some of the most ridiculous lease rates and 18/27 are getting close to their D-Checks. The 77Ws are getting close to their second D-Check. Might just be cheaper to return the leased aircraft, convert the 9 owned 77W/787 to Freighters or something.

Renegotiating lease rates and performing D checks is a lot cheaper than purchasing brand new aircraft to replace the 787s. If AI can’t get good lease rates on their 788s during a renegotiation at end of lease then I have some bad news for you on what their A350 rates will be like…
 
migair54
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:04 pm

portola2727 wrote:
I wonder if the airports in India could expand as much as AI is looking to expand. I know Chennai(my home airport in India) is very much constrained at the moment and I wonder if AI could expand further at the airport.


Chennai, Trivandrum, Kochin, Bombay, Kolkatta and many more are years behind the current aviation industry. Even Delhi is quite saturated, but with the new runway it will get a bit better, however new terminal space will be needed soon.

the market in India is very agressive and most airlines have big plans, I think TATA group is clever attacking and trying to expand, they have lot of market share and brand name, something new airlines take years to complete,

If you consider Air India 76 A320 family planes, Air India Express 24 B738 and Vistara 43 A320+ 17 orders for a total of 160 and they also have quite a few widebodies, then suddenly 300 planes are not that much, Indigo has 250 planes and 300 more on order.

acavpics wrote:
If AI gets the 737 MAX, do you think some of them would go to Air India Express to replace their 737-800's. I haven't seen any mention of the future of the IX fleet.

It will be logical to go to standard fleet for the whole company, even Vistara will be in the mix.

lightsaber wrote:
This order is huge. Combined with Indigo, it will make it tough for smaller Indian airlines.

For this size of order, assuming it is over a decade of deliveries, both companies will make slots available.

And don't forget the Spicejet order, they have many of them also, almost 200 B737 MAX.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:15 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-19/air-india-said-to-consider-order-for-300-narrow-body-planes

Bloomberg reporting it’s either going to be NEOs, MAX or a mix.




Wow, one really has to wonder what amazing market analysts Bloomberg uses, given the incredible variety of aircrafts one could choose from.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:49 pm

Opus99 wrote:
They should return 777s and 787s and order 350s? WOW. I’ve never seen such business happen before, but I guess there’s a first time for everything


Never seen such a deal happen before?

Boeing did it with Air Canada, Singapore Airlines just to name 2. Both these airlines swapped out their A340s for 777/787 after Boeing cut them a deal.

So it has happened before.

Airbus will cement its lead in the Indian market and get a newly revived Flag Carrier as their customer.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:23 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
They should return 777s and 787s and order 350s? WOW. I’ve never seen such business happen before, but I guess there’s a first time for everything


Never seen such a deal happen before?

Boeing did it with Air Canada, Singapore Airlines just to name 2. Both these airlines swapped out their A340s for 777/787 after Boeing cut them a deal.

So it has happened before.

Airbus will cement its lead in the Indian market and get a newly revived Flag Carrier as their customer.

yes, because the 340 was low hanging fruit, anybody could take the piss out of that aircraft. 787? not so much. particularly the -8. its efficient, low risk and cheap to operate. you want them to replace an aircraft (in a different size category) with the same generation of aircraft, based on what? the 350 lease rate will still be more expensive, the 787 rate can be re-negotiated. the 777s are being refurbished with new cabins, but they'll throw them away once new 350s come next year. what do you think this is?

787-8, a359 and 777-300ER 3 completely different size categories that make a complete modern wide body fleet that can cater to a wider route network but Bawlibooch thinks they should throw away mid-life very useable 777/787s and buy 350s because maybe this is a game with a reset button.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:31 pm

Opus99 wrote:
yes, because the 340 was low hanging fruit. 787? not so much you want them to replace an aircraft (in a different size category) with the same generation of aircraft, based on what? the 350 lease rate will still be more expensive, the 787 rate can be re-negotiated.

That would have been true if Air India had originally gone for the more optimized 787-9s with better lease terms and maintenance deals. However Air India got the older, heavier 787-8s with expensive leases and nightmare maintenance contracts that saw some of them hatching eggs on BOM apron for months at a time. A new owner will see value in making a clean start.

Opus99 wrote:
787-8, a359 and 777-300ER 3 completely different size categories that make a complete modern wide body fleet that can cater to a wider route network but Bawlibooch thinks they should throw away mid-life very useable 777/787s and buy 350s because maybe this is a game with a reset button.


If you could replace 3 widebody types mentioned with 2 variants of the same type rating A350-900 and A350-1000HGW, doesnt that make more sense? Add to that, if you had a 200 strong narrowbody fleet with common type rating allowing for a seamless crew transition opportunities wouldnt you do it?

Lets be logical here!
avier wrote:
They do plan to expand IX, but mostly int'l. They're looking at expanding to around 30 countries including, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam per their CCO.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 79321.html

Though I don't know how well the 737MAX performs for some of the long int'l routes they are planning.


At the time of the original 737-800 order, the 737 with winglets was found to be more optimised compared to the non wingletted A320 for the 4 hour average stage length of AIX flights. That factor no longer applies. Add to that the benefits of making a common order for the group, the disadvantages of having an orphan 737MAX fleet for AIX and the negative press around the 737MAX, it makes better sense to make a common order for the group.

PS: Air India pilots have already received messages from the Crewing departments about the A350. I think Widebody a done deal. Time to stop beating the 787 horse! The battle is for the narrowbody order.
 
Opus99
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:52 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
yes, because the 340 was low hanging fruit. 787? not so much you want them to replace an aircraft (in a different size category) with the same generation of aircraft, based on what? the 350 lease rate will still be more expensive, the 787 rate can be re-negotiated.

That would have been true if Air India had originally gone for the more optimized 787-9s with better lease terms and maintenance deals. However Air India got the older, heavier 787-8s with expensive leases and nightmare maintenance contracts that saw some of them hatching eggs on BOM apron for months at a time. A new owner will see value in making a clean start.

Opus99 wrote:
787-8, a359 and 777-300ER 3 completely different size categories that make a complete modern wide body fleet that can cater to a wider route network but Bawlibooch thinks they should throw away mid-life very useable 777/787s and buy 350s because maybe this is a game with a reset button.


If you could replace 3 widebody types mentioned with 2 variants of the same type rating A350-900 and A350-1000HGW, doesnt that make more sense? Add to that, if you had a 200 strong narrowbody fleet with common type rating allowing for a seamless crew transition opportunities wouldnt you do it?

Lets be logical here!
avier wrote:
They do plan to expand IX, but mostly int'l. They're looking at expanding to around 30 countries including, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam per their CCO.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 79321.html

Though I don't know how well the 737MAX performs for some of the long int'l routes they are planning.


At the time of the original 737-800 order, the 737 with winglets was found to be more optimised compared to the non wingletted A320 for the 4 hour average stage length of AIX flights. That factor no longer applies. Add to that the benefits of making a common order for the group, the disadvantages of having an orphan 737MAX fleet for AIX and the negative press around the 737MAX, it makes better sense to make a common order for the group.

PS: Air India pilots have already received messages from the Crewing departments about the A350. I think Widebody a done deal. Time to stop beating the 787 horse! The battle is for the narrowbody order.

The report says 350-900s and 787-9s are being considered. Don’t know this 350-1000HGW you’re talking about

Everything you said about the 787-8 will still be cheaper than buying BRAND NEW aircraft. Things that can be renegotiated.

Bear in mind, the 787-9 is still in contention, we don’t know what happens with vistara as well.
 
avier
Topic Author
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:19 pm

Opus99 wrote:
787-8, a359 and 777-300ER 3 completely different size categories that make a complete modern wide body fleet that can cater to a wider route network

It isn't very efficient to have three different types of WB's that to with lesser numbers of them. Having three different pool of pilots for just WB fleet is complicating the business model.

On the one hand, many speculate they'd settle for one type of NB fleet (A320 family) for commonality across group and for simplifying the NB fleet- which constitutes the largest number in the fleet, on the other hand they'll have 3 different types of WB's, that too in lesser numbers. Doesn't make sense.

The only reason I see them keep the 77W's alongside the 787+A350, is that they are all owned by AI and not on lease. And when Tata's acquired AI, the price paid for buying the airline was mainly for the assets like the owned fleet of aircraft. I don't know what the resale value of a 77W is in current market and external conditions (fuel price/airspace closures), but it wouldn't be great I suppose.

Regarding seating capacity difference between a 77W & A359, they can play around getting creative and achieve a higher seat count on A359 using modern space saving seats/galleys/lavs etc.
ET's A359 seat more than AI 77W's. So it could be a decent replacement for them. The larger A350 could always join later.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:23 pm

It is fascinating to read about the India market coming into its own!

Useful comment, both A&B understand that India is one of THE most strategically important markets of the mid-21st century. Nothing is more important. They will do their utmost.
 
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Polot
Posts: 13657
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Re: Air India considering order for 300 narrow-body planes : Reports

Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:25 pm

avier wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
787-8, a359 and 777-300ER 3 completely different size categories that make a complete modern wide body fleet that can cater to a wider route network

It isn't very efficient to have three different types of WB's that to with lesser numbers of them. Having three different pool of pilots for just WB fleet is complicating the business model.

787 and 777s can be flown by the same pilot group, but I don’t know if AI does/India allows it.

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