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MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 1005
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Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:19 pm

Hello!

I have been wondering, does BA currently have a shortfall of wide body aircraft?

When the pandemic struck they retired 30 plus B747-400’s.

Most markets across the world are now seeing a return to 2019 level demand.

Since then I believe that they have received maybe 6 or so A350’s.

With this in mind they have far less wide body aircraft than they did in 2019. Is demand in surplus to supply of seats?
 
Speedbird2010
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:10 am

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:52 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Hello!

I have been wondering, does BA currently have a shortfall of wide body aircraft?

When the pandemic struck they retired 30 plus B747-400’s.

Most markets across the world are now seeing a return to 2019 level demand.

Since then I believe that they have received maybe 6 or so A350’s.

With this in mind they have far less wide body aircraft than they did in 2019. Is demand in surplus to supply of seats?


In short answer, no.

A lot of long haul routes have not yet gone back to pre pandemic frequency, with some not restarted at all. Also bear in mind another batch of routes were terminated as the pandemic struck as part of the restructure.

Delays you see to long haul services now are driven more by the LHR capacity cuts, staff shortages, tech delays or operational on the day reasons.

Hope that answers?
 
bennett123
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 2:36 pm

A what point will BA capacity reach 2019 levels?.
 
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tlecam
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Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:38 pm

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:55 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Hello!

I have been wondering, does BA currently have a shortfall of wide body aircraft?

When the pandemic struck they retired 30 plus B747-400’s.

Most markets across the world are now seeing a return to 2019 level demand.

Since then I believe that they have received maybe 6 or so A350’s.

With this in mind they have far less wide body aircraft than they did in 2019. Is demand in surplus to supply of seats?


Travel to Asia has not remotely returned to 2019 level. That’s a pretty large market.
 
BealineV953
Posts: 414
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:00 am

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:06 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Hello!
Does BA currently have a shortfall of wide body aircraft?
When the pandemic struck they retired 30 plus B747-400’s.
Since then I believe that they have received maybe 6 or so A350’s.
With this in mind they have far less wide body aircraft than they did in 2019.

Most markets across the world are now seeing a return to 2019 level demand.
Is demand in surplus to supply of seats?


Hello.
BA ‘pre-covid’ services came to an end in the last week of March ’20.
After March ’20, 33 longhaul aircraft were retired (31 747s and 2 777s).
The pre-Covid-19 plan showed the following numbers of 747s in the fleet at year end:
• 2020: 25
• 2021: 20
• 2022: 12
• 2023: 3 (all due to retire by the end of February 2024).

Since March '20, 12 longhaul aircraft have been delivered:
4x 777-300
2x 787-10
6x A350

So, at this time there are 21 fewer aircraft in the BA longhaul fleet (33 retired, 12 delivered) than there were pre-covid.

A number of 787-10s are stored pending delivery.
As deliveries of the 787s resume, and further A350s arrive, the shortfall will to close.

BA is currently experiencing demand at around 65% of pre-pandemic levels, and the recovery in demand is stuttering.
Last edited by BealineV953 on Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WkndWanderer
Posts: 477
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:12 pm

tlecam wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Hello!

I have been wondering, does BA currently have a shortfall of wide body aircraft?

When the pandemic struck they retired 30 plus B747-400’s.

Most markets across the world are now seeing a return to 2019 level demand.

Since then I believe that they have received maybe 6 or so A350’s.

With this in mind they have far less wide body aircraft than they did in 2019. Is demand in surplus to supply of seats?


Travel to Asia has not remotely returned to 2019 level. That’s a pretty large market.


Although I don’t believe it was a particularly large market for BA specifically. Even pre-covid their China service was not a large portion of their long haul network. Although international demand everywhere has not returned to pre-covid levels, it seems there still would be some gap with ~30 less widebodies. How many 787’s were they supposed to have taken delivery of during this time? It seems that was also AA’s plan to recover capacity when they retired the A330’s and 767’s and now they find themselves in a bit of a crunch with the 787 delivery delays.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:30 pm

The UK is indeed on the verge of a major recession, I expect BA will be putting some of those A380's back in mothballs early next year. My :twocents: worth.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:31 pm

BA is also currently flying the Airbus 380. I believe all 12 are flying or about to return to service.
 
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ClassicLover
Posts: 5573
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2004 12:27 pm

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:53 pm

BealineV953 wrote:
BA ‘pre-covid’ services came to an end in the last week of March ’20.
After March ’20, 33 longhaul aircraft were retired (31 747s and 2 777s).
The pre-Covid-19 plan showed the following numbers of 747s in the fleet at year end:
• 2020: 25
• 2021: 20
• 2022: 12
• 2023: 3 (all due to retire by the end of February 2024).

Since March '20, 12 longhaul aircraft have been delivered:
4x 777-300
2x 787-10
6x A350


This is a really good summary, as people don't take into account the planned retirements that were going to happen anyway. Thank you for this!
 
skipness1E
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:06 pm

More importantly they haven't been able to ramp up to meet existing demand, the A321CEO is mostly parked with AY and IB flying shott haul for BA. LHR cannot cope and has demanded across the board reductions in movements.
Even if they hadn't decided to retire the B744 before it would likely still not have returned.

The only way to address these issues is to.....REBRAND!
#kiddingnotkidding

I suspect some of the older B772s will quietly be removed as they have to take delivery of new B787-10s and A350-1000s they won't need.
 
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tlecam
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:02 pm

WkndWanderer wrote:
tlecam wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Hello!

I have been wondering, does BA currently have a shortfall of wide body aircraft?

When the pandemic struck they retired 30 plus B747-400’s.

Most markets across the world are now seeing a return to 2019 level demand.

Since then I believe that they have received maybe 6 or so A350’s.

With this in mind they have far less wide body aircraft than they did in 2019. Is demand in surplus to supply of seats?


Travel to Asia has not remotely returned to 2019 level. That’s a pretty large market.


Although I don’t believe it was a particularly large market for BA specifically. Even pre-covid their China service was not a large portion of their long haul network. Although international demand everywhere has not returned to pre-covid levels, it seems there still would be some gap with ~30 less widebodies. How many 787’s were they supposed to have taken delivery of during this time? It seems that was also AA’s plan to recover capacity when they retired the A330’s and 767’s and now they find themselves in a bit of a crunch with the 787 delivery delays.


In terms of flights, perhaps. However, those are resource intensive routes. Most flights to Eastern Asia are 12-15 hours from LHR and as a result, many of those daily routes require multiple aircraft.
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 1005
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:32 pm

skipness1E wrote:
More importantly they haven't been able to ramp up to meet existing demand, the A321CEO is mostly parked with AY and IB flying shott haul for BA. LHR cannot cope and has demanded across the board reductions in movements.
Even if they hadn't decided to retire the B744 before it would likely still not have returned.

The only way to address these issues is to.....REBRAND!
#kiddingnotkidding

I suspect some of the older B772s will quietly be removed as they have to take delivery of new B787-10s and A350-1000s they won't need.


That would be interesting if BA do indeed remove some B772’s from their fleet.

I don’t think they have ordered a type specific replacement yet.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 2006
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:27 pm

I think that although Europe and USA markets have recovered, Asia and especially China is still totally decimated. Plus you have the war in Ukraine, which makes it more expensive to fly to east Asia as you have to divert around Russia.

So I'd imagine getting rid of those 20 extra 747s is still looking like a good idea. They'd just be sitting parked somewhere anyway whilst the airline used its newer more efficient aircraft as much as possible.
 
TUGMASTER
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Joined: Wed Jul 07, 2004 8:56 pm

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:31 pm

BA are NOT currently short of long haul birds.
If they desperately needed some, AY has frames available. As mentioned up thread , Asian routes are still in the floor.
 
fjhc
Posts: 87
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:34 pm

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:28 pm

I don't think BA is constrained by numbers of planes on the property, but in the number of pilots, flight attendants, ground crew etc. I know they're going out long-haul with minimum crew rather than surplus as they used to, as they don't have enough flight attendants. The pressure on prices is not just due to demand outstripping supply, but also fuel prices, which is tempering things slightly.
 
evanb
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:58 pm

One of the big constraints for BA is slots. They have invested a lot of acquiring and maintaining their slot dominance at LHR over the years and will do anything to maintain this. Keep in mind that LHR, like other UK airports, was to be on a 70/30 slot rule this summer, although they may have leeway given the capacity caps in place. So BA are not under as much pressure to utilize their slots at present.

Given that their slot utilization was near 100% pre-COVID, it means that they can easily operating well under pre-COVID levels without compromising slots, however, once 80/20 returns (maybe next summer), they'll be under a little more pressure. On average, a daily slot needs to be used, on average 5 days per week at present (manipulating the days), but this will increase to 6 days per week, on average once 80/20 returns. A lot of this can get manipulated by short haul flights, but not always, especially if there are slot constraints on the other end.
 
SEAorPWM
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:29 am

BealineV953 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Hello!
Does BA currently have a shortfall of wide body aircraft?
When the pandemic struck they retired 30 plus B747-400’s.
Since then I believe that they have received maybe 6 or so A350’s.
With this in mind they have far less wide body aircraft than they did in 2019.

Most markets across the world are now seeing a return to 2019 level demand.
Is demand in surplus to supply of seats?


Hello.
BA ‘pre-covid’ services came to an end in the last week of March ’20.
After March ’20, 33 longhaul aircraft were retired (31 747s and 2 777s).
The pre-Covid-19 plan showed the following numbers of 747s in the fleet at year end:
• 2020: 25
• 2021: 20
• 2022: 12
• 2023: 3 (all due to retire by the end of February 2024).

Since March '20, 12 longhaul aircraft have been delivered:
4x 777-300
2x 787-10
6x A350

So, at this time there are 21 fewer aircraft in the BA longhaul fleet (33 retired, 12 delivered) than there were pre-covid.

A number of 787-10s are stored pending delivery.
As deliveries of the 787s resume, and further A350s arrive, the shortfall will to close.

BA is currently experiencing demand at around 65% of pre-pandemic levels, and the recovery in demand is stuttering.


Are there any more details regarding this pause in the recovery, and is it true for all UK carriers and markets?

It sure looks like we're heading for another OPEC-engineered recession, regardless of staffing and LHR issues. :mad:
 
AngMoh
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Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2011 5:03 am

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:55 am

Speedbird2010 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Hello!

I have been wondering, does BA currently have a shortfall of wide body aircraft?

When the pandemic struck they retired 30 plus B747-400’s.

Most markets across the world are now seeing a return to 2019 level demand.

Since then I believe that they have received maybe 6 or so A350’s.

With this in mind they have far less wide body aircraft than they did in 2019. Is demand in surplus to supply of seats?


In short answer, no.

A lot of long haul routes have not yet gone back to pre pandemic frequency, with some not restarted at all. Also bear in mind another batch of routes were terminated as the pandemic struck as part of the restructure.

Delays you see to long haul services now are driven more by the LHR capacity cuts, staff shortages, tech delays or operational on the day reasons.

Hope that answers?


So why are these routes not back? Demand is there - it is ramping up much faster than expected and EK is desperately trying to get all of their A380s back in the air. There are some forecasts that air travel in worldwide will be back to pre-COVID levels by summer next year and not 2024/25 as predicted earlier. Long haul load factors between Asia and Europe are high to very high. Economy lite tickets between LHR to SIN have gone from SGD 1300 minimum to SGD $3000 minimum since March. Getting from Europe to Australia costs a fortune and it is lack of seats, not fuel costs. Qantas A380 SIN-LHR has no seats available for August and costs SGD$3000 return in September for cheapest available tickets. CX, TG, MH all got butchered during the last 2 year and are down for the count.

European airlines are missing the boat big time with their slow return to service on long haul and I believe it is all driven by short term cost savings during COVID (letting go of way too many staff despite getting ample government support) and inability to rehire today. QF and SQ are going to be very profitable 2nd half of this year on Europe-Asia/Australia and EK is ramping up fast.
 
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eurotrader85
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:12 am

I think it's a bit too simplistic to look at the schedule for 747s to leave the fleet, and think this was almost a planned engineered downsizing, so I would answer Yes in the medium term BA has a WB capacity shortfall.

The reality was that BA extended the life of those 747 birds in the mid-teens and added a lot of options in their 779 order to keep the flexibility there if they wanted to build around that aircraft or maybe add some second-hand 380s/ new 35Ks in the years to come during the 747 retrenchments. Fast forward to the pandemic and those long-term plans went out the window as survival was key. As others have said, Asia and one of LHR's biggest markets in HKG, is still not properly open so BA doesn't currently need its 2019 fleet. While in the short term it was almost serendipitous to BA that the 781s delivery issue and the delay in the 779 occurred during the downturn, let's not pretend that this WB fleet, even with the planned deliveries, is in anyway large enough currently to fulfil its 2019 schedule. Not only are some of those 772s pretty knackered despite a cabin refurbishment, and thus should be on the planned way out, but that same present benefit of the 779 being indefinitely delayed puts BA, like a lot of airlines, in a bit of a sticky position when their schedules want to get back to 2019 levels and the world is also fully open again. Where will BA turn? More 35Ks? Not enough capacity.

When you hear the SAS CEO say there is too much WB capacity in the market it feels naive and missing what is coming (sure understand he has his own agenda for an airline struggling with bankruptcy and hoping long range NB aircraft can do a job on long-haul routes from their smaller hubs). Airbus for right or wrong was modelling the future of WB fleets around a mix of 350s/380s, and now the 380 is gone. Boeing was banking around the 779 which, who knows when it will come to market. So when Tim Clark rattles the sabre saying there is not enough WB capacity coming in the market he has a point, and BA is also facing this same problem, all be it on a smaller scale to EK, once pax get back to 2019 levels.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:09 am

Interesting comments. Being at the forefront of all of this I'd say it's short of everything! Schedules have been trimmed, partly because of resourcing (lack of staff and airport capacity) but there's little leeway in the BA longhaul fleet. All 777s, A350s and B787s are working flat out. Only one A380 remains in Madrid and all due to be back in service by November.

Not seeing this drop off in demand either. Outbound loadfactors are in the high 90s. While this may well drop off for winter, at the moment, demand is outstripping capacity, especially to the USA. Asian markets haven't returned, but Singapore and Australia has recovered well and BA was never particularly big in Asia outside of HKG and SIN.

Not sure where the evidence is for the 772s being "knackered"? The dispatch reliability of the 777 fleet is excellent. I have heard some of the older GE 772s are coming up for D checks and may well be scrapped instead, but that's reliant on 787 deliveries resuming and 779s being delivered.

As an example, LHR-JFK is only back at 5 daily departures for BA. Ordinarily that'd be 8. But there are neither the crews nor the airframes to restore it. Although PDX has started (and doing very well!) there are other routes that would have been started if it wasn't for a lack of resources.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:32 pm

BA777FO wrote:
As an example, LHR-JFK is only back at 5 daily departures for BA. Ordinarily that'd be 8. But there are neither the crews nor the airframes to restore it. Although PDX has started (and doing very well!) there are other routes that would have been started if it wasn't for a lack of resources.


Might be a naive question - but if they can fill up 8 dailies on LHR-JFK, but have capacity only for 5 dailies (that are obviously full up), what's the detriment to BA? Isn't that a profitable proposition by itself?
 
AAMDanny
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:44 pm

I know this topic is regarding Long Haul capacity, but I'm surprised they didn't swap the stored A321ceo's for the A320ceo's they currently are flying in order to provide additional capacity? Unless that was to trim down the crewing establishment as the A321 needs the additional x1 Cabin Crew Member?

Does anybody know if/when they will resume flying their stored A321ceo fleet?
 
seansasLCY
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Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2007 5:25 am

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:56 pm

Spiderguy252 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
As an example, LHR-JFK is only back at 5 daily departures for BA. Ordinarily that'd be 8. But there are neither the crews nor the airframes to restore it. Although PDX has started (and doing very well!) there are other routes that would have been started if it wasn't for a lack of resources.


Might be a naive question - but if they can fill up 8 dailies on LHR-JFK, but have capacity only for 5 dailies (that are obviously full up), what's the detriment to BA? Isn't that a profitable proposition by itself?


Don’t forget high demand and low capacity is not always a bad thing for airlines. It can push prices very high.
 
tonystan
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:34 pm

AAMDanny wrote:
I know this topic is regarding Long Haul capacity, but I'm surprised they didn't swap the stored A321ceo's for the A320ceo's they currently are flying in order to provide additional capacity? Unless that was to trim down the crewing establishment as the A321 needs the additional x1 Cabin Crew Member?

Does anybody know if/when they will resume flying their stored A321ceo fleet?


They simply dont have the crew for the 321ceos at present. They can just about manage (well thats a lie, they cant really) what they have and thats including having the 321Neos out and about.
 
hpff
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:46 pm

BA777FO wrote:
Not sure where the evidence is for the 772s being "knackered"? The dispatch reliability of the 777 fleet is excellent. I have heard some of the older GE 772s are coming up for D checks and may well be scrapped instead, but that's reliant on 787 deliveries resuming and 779s being delivered.


Been flying quite a lot again as of late and the worst on board product I've had this year was a BA 777 in economy - fortunately this was closer to wintertime so light load factor. I'm sure the frames themselves are fine but the on board product needs a refresh.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:23 pm

IAG as I recall has 5 firm but deferred A350 orders with Airbus that were originally going to EI. Not sure what the timing is for these, and IAG has not announced where they will end up.
 
Speedbird2010
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:48 pm

tonystan wrote:
AAMDanny wrote:
I know this topic is regarding Long Haul capacity, but I'm surprised they didn't swap the stored A321ceo's for the A320ceo's they currently are flying in order to provide additional capacity? Unless that was to trim down the crewing establishment as the A321 needs the additional x1 Cabin Crew Member?

Does anybody know if/when they will resume flying their stored A321ceo fleet?


They simply dont have the crew for the 321ceos at present. They can just about manage (well thats a lie, they cant really) what they have and thats including having the 321Neos out and about.


It is true, like many other airlines BA have periods where they are “short” on crew. This is due to a number of reasons. Long haul services are still in the most part operating 1 cabin crew member below pre pandemic complements. Remedial measures have been put in place to mitigate cabin crew shortages:

    Inviting those back who waitlisted to return following the restructure and subsequent redundancies
    Opening temporary MAD crew base, these crew operating a multitude of short haul sectors from LHR
    Using international cabin crews from HND to operate non Japanese services from LHR
    Increasing new entrant training at BA training centre

Capacity wise, the long (and short haul) is way below what was previously flown. Routes such as KIX, ICN, DUR, KUL, EZE (direct), AUH, MCT, BKK, PKX, PVG and HKG have been suspended or cancelled all together, many of these routes required more than 1 frame. Frequencies are still reduced on other long haul services, which again is creating less usage of frames. Short haul wise, even with expanded summer only services, many European business routes are operating below frequency and with current capacity crisis, flights have dropped in number again.

Many of the issues are down to staffing shortages but not solely crew related, areas such as baggage and check in also have constraints. The recent LHR capacity cuts are as a result of Heathrow Airport Limited imposing this - BA would not have chosen to cancel this number of services.

Cancellations are happening, but not all down to the media focused staffing crisis. Recent cancellations have been as a result of weather, tech aircraft, diversions, staff sickness overseas etc which happened pre COVID.

BA are not alone in their industry challenges, let’s just hope we can get through it.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:21 pm

Spiderguy252 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
As an example, LHR-JFK is only back at 5 daily departures for BA. Ordinarily that'd be 8. But there are neither the crews nor the airframes to restore it. Although PDX has started (and doing very well!) there are other routes that would have been started if it wasn't for a lack of resources.


Mible to fieldght be a naive question - but if they can fill up 8 dailies on LHR-JFK, but have capacity only for 5 dailies (that are obviously full up), what's the detriment to BA? Isn't that a profitable proposition by itself?

they can't sell what they don't have,, but the logic might be? They may or may NOT be able to even Field the other 3 flights without crews. But the question is?
Are they making a profit with what they have to offer??
 
seansasLCY
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:24 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
Spiderguy252 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
As an example, LHR-JFK is only back at 5 daily departures for BA. Ordinarily that'd be 8. But there are neither the crews nor the airframes to restore it. Although PDX has started (and doing very well!) there are other routes that would have been started if it wasn't for a lack of resources.


Mible to fieldght be a naive question - but if they can fill up 8 dailies on LHR-JFK, but have capacity only for 5 dailies (that are obviously full up), what's the detriment to BA? Isn't that a profitable proposition by itself?

they can't sell what they don't have,, but the logic might be? They may or may NOT be able to even Field the other 3 flights without crews. But the question is?
Are they making a profit with what they have to offer??


Nobody knows till they publish their results. Their (IAG) Q1 results were a loss of €787million after tax and exceptional items so still some way to go.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:39 am

seansasLCY wrote:
Spiderguy252 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
As an example, LHR-JFK is only back at 5 daily departures for BA. Ordinarily that'd be 8. But there are neither the crews nor the airframes to restore it. Although PDX has started (and doing very well!) there are other routes that would have been started if it wasn't for a lack of resources.


Might be a naive question - but if they can fill up 8 dailies on LHR-JFK, but have capacity only for 5 dailies (that are obviously full up), what's the detriment to BA? Isn't that a profitable proposition by itself?


Don’t forget high demand and low capacity is not always a bad thing for airlines. It can push prices very high.


Yeah, yields are high. But they're missing out on ~£1.5m worth of revenue every day by doing 5x daily instead of 8x daily just on JFK alone.
 
BA777FO
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:43 am

hpff wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
Not sure where the evidence is for the 772s being "knackered"? The dispatch reliability of the 777 fleet is excellent. I have heard some of the older GE 772s are coming up for D checks and may well be scrapped instead, but that's reliant on 787 deliveries resuming and 779s being delivered.


Been flying quite a lot again as of late and the worst on board product I've had this year was a BA 777 in economy - fortunately this was closer to wintertime so light load factor. I'm sure the frames themselves are fine but the on board product needs a refresh.


All but about 4 772s have had a cabin refresh, perhaps you were on one of those? They're all due to get the refresh. If you were talking about the soft product rather than the hard product then that'd be the same on all of them. The catering proposition is apparently due some upgrades around October time and it does definitely need it!
 
BA777FO
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Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:29 pm

seansasLCY wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Spiderguy252 wrote:

Mible to fieldght be a naive question - but if they can fill up 8 dailies on LHR-JFK, but have capacity only for 5 dailies (that are obviously full up), what's the detriment to BA? Isn't that a profitable proposition by itself?

they can't sell what they don't have,, but the logic might be? They may or may NOT be able to even Field the other 3 flights without crews. But the question is?
Are they making a profit with what they have to offer??


Nobody knows till they publish their results. Their (IAG) Q1 results were a loss of €787million after tax and exceptional items so still some way to go.


With many longhaul loadfactors in the high 90s for quite some time now I'd be stunned if they weren't profitable for Q2. Not enough to overturn the Q1 loss but full year profitability is definitely possible, even with all of the costs of the disruption. Q2 results are to be released in a couple of weeks.
 
hpff
Posts: 250
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:20 am

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:54 pm

BA777FO wrote:
hpff wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
Not sure where the evidence is for the 772s being "knackered"? The dispatch reliability of the 777 fleet is excellent. I have heard some of the older GE 772s are coming up for D checks and may well be scrapped instead, but that's reliant on 787 deliveries resuming and 779s being delivered.


Been flying quite a lot again as of late and the worst on board product I've had this year was a BA 777 in economy - fortunately this was closer to wintertime so light load factor. I'm sure the frames themselves are fine but the on board product needs a refresh.


All but about 4 772s have had a cabin refresh, perhaps you were on one of those? They're all due to get the refresh. If you were talking about the soft product rather than the hard product then that'd be the same on all of them. The catering proposition is apparently due some upgrades around October time and it does definitely need it!


99% sure it was one of the dud triple 7's in that case, at least let's hope! The other one I flew was just fine. Haven't really minded the catering in economy - have had worse - and that wasn't the problem with that flight!
 
BealineV953
Posts: 414
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:00 am

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Tue Jul 26, 2022 2:00 pm

eurotrader85 wrote:
I think it's a bit too simplistic to look at the schedule for 747s to leave the fleet, and think this was almost a planned engineered downsizing...
The reality was that BA extended the life of those 747 birds in the mid-teens....


Hello.
Your comment “…too simplistic to look at the schedule for 747s to leave the fleet” may be a reference to my post (number 5).

The post originator said: “When the pandemic struck they retired 30 plus B747-400’s. Since then I believe that they have received maybe 6 or so A350’s.”

I thought it would be helpful to put numbers to the changes to the BA longhaul widebody fleet.
The ‘pandemic’ fleet reduction was 33 aircraft, and since March ’20 thirteen (correcting my 12 above) longhaul aircraft have been delivered.

Where you say “…almost a planned engineered downsizing” what are you suggesting?

The BA pre-pandemic fleet plan had firm retirement dates up to February '24 for the 31 remaining 747s, and for 2 777s. At year end '22, the pre-pandemic fleet plan showed 12 747s in service.
The fleet plan had 4x 777-300s, 18x A350s and x12 787s replacing the 747s and 2 early 777s pretty much one for one.

BA's 747s were not put through an airframe life extension programme. To see them through to retirement, the younger 747s did have their interiors refreshed

As Summer ’20 went on, it became clear that air travel was not going to quickly return to pre-pandemic levels. Against that background, reducing the fleet made sense, and given that the 747s were being withdrawn anyway, bringing forward their retirements was the obvious thing to do. The first ‘recovery’ plan showed a small number of 747s returning to service, but it was not to be.

I would call this ‘planned downsizing’.

Having put numbers to the retirements and deliveries, I didn’t offer a view, simplistic or otherwise, as to whether BA is short of longhaul aircraft.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11443
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Does BA have a long haul capacity shortfall?

Tue Jul 26, 2022 2:36 pm

Nobody has mentioned historic or present widebody utilization. If they used to use widebodies 12 hrs/day and now operate them 10 hours/day, it's lack of crew or lack of profitable opportunity, not lack of aircraft.

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