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evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:52 pm

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
Agreed, plus it makes overall QF ops in SIN much more important with flights to BNE/SYD/MEL/PER/LHR hopefully ADL down the line when the A321XLR comes. And the slew of 3K destinations. We can’t forget SIN is QFs biggest hub outside of the Tasman.


Agreed. SIN-Australia O&D is very large. The A321XLR brings different options for QF/JQ. It'll be interesting to see the configuration of QF's SIN flights in the future. In addition to ADL-SIN, might we see OOL, CNS or HBA. Do they use it from PER to gain frequency?
 
qf2048
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:55 pm

I'd like to see a 3K flight from SIN to LGK to meet up with the bank of QF flights from Australia. Most LGK flights are from KUL.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:00 am

qf2048 wrote:
I'd like to see a 3K flight from SIN to LGK to meet up with the bank of QF flights from Australia. Most LGK flights are from KUL.


3K will have to source at least 2-3 WBs from somewhere, either wetleased from JQ (the 3x 787s), or damp-leased elsewhere.
 
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Velocity7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:06 am

qf2048 wrote:
I'd like to see a 3K flight from SIN to LGK to meet up with the bank of QF flights from Australia. Most LGK flights are from KUL.


Agree, I head up to LGK a couple of times a year. It used to be so simple with SQ - could get all the way through from the BNE to LGK within the day but with MI ceasing to exist and SQ now using Scoot for the LGK connection, the times don't work and I have to overnight in SIN :(
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:29 am

SCFlyer wrote:
qf2048 wrote:
I'd like to see a 3K flight from SIN to LGK to meet up with the bank of QF flights from Australia. Most LGK flights are from KUL.


3K will have to source at least 2-3 WBs from somewhere, either wetleased from JQ (the 3x 787s), or damp-leased elsewhere.

Why would 3K need WBs to operate SIN-LGK? It is a 90 minute service.

3K has down-sized post pandemic. It relies more than ever on connecting passengers for QF, KL, EK etc in SIN for onward services which makes it more a competitor for SQ 7M8s than the TR A320s going forward. This means it is imperative that 3K keep operating from T1 in SIN. If they are forced to move to T4, I think they are finished. It is also arguable that this revised role means the JetStar branding is less relevant and maybe a revised Qantas branding and product more similar to QF's domestic product may be a way forward.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:53 am

tullamarine wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
qf2048 wrote:
I'd like to see a 3K flight from SIN to LGK to meet up with the bank of QF flights from Australia. Most LGK flights are from KUL.


3K will have to source at least 2-3 WBs from somewhere, either wetleased from JQ (the 3x 787s), or damp-leased elsewhere.

Why would 3K need WBs to operate SIN-LGK? It is a 90 minute service.

3K has down-sized post pandemic. It relies more than ever on connecting passengers for QF, KL, EK etc in SIN for onward services which makes it more a competitor for SQ 7M8s than the TR A320s going forward. This means it is imperative that 3K keep operating from T1 in SIN. If they are forced to move to T4, I think they are finished. It is also arguable that this revised role means the JetStar branding is less relevant and maybe a revised Qantas branding and product more similar to QF's domestic product may be a way forward.


My mistake. Mixed up LGW and LGK.

A bit of a back to the future for a revised QF short haul ex-Asia considering the earlier proposals of a premium carrier (RedQ) ex-SIN or ex-KUL using the 737s A320s back in the late 2000s.

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... able-68111
 
qf2048
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:37 am

Velocity7 wrote:
qf2048 wrote:
I'd like to see a 3K flight from SIN to LGK to meet up with the bank of QF flights from Australia. Most LGK flights are from KUL.


Agree, I head up to LGK a couple of times a year. It used to be so simple with SQ - could get all the way through from the BNE to LGK within the day but with MI ceasing to exist and SQ now using Scoot for the LGK connection, the times don't work and I have to overnight in SIN :(


I went to Penang pre covid for a week and loved it. Would love to try another similar destination. MH got us there from SYD in one day but we did a stopover in KUL on the return. Points earn on MH was woeful as a QF FF.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 3:31 am

Qantas SYD-SFO has been pushed back again now to 1 Feb 23

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220823-qfnw22sfo

MEL-DFW will see planned 4 weekly now operate at 3 weekly instead

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220823-qfnw22meldfw
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 4:27 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas SYD-SFO has been pushed back again now to 1 Feb 23

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220823-qfnw22sfo

MEL-DFW will see planned 4 weekly now operate at 3 weekly instead

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220823-qfnw22meldfw


I assume this is related to 787 availability? Cancelling 6 weekly flights (5x SFO, 1x DFW) during Dec/Jan frees up (almost) 2 787s (1.7 to be precise). I assume demand is strong enough in Dec/Jan that this is more likely to be the reason rather than poor demand? I’ve completely lost track of where they’re at with A380 reactivation, so have no idea how many aircraft they’ll have then (assuming no 787 deliveries).

I agree with aeroroutes editorialising that only having J/W/Y/B/H loaded is a fairly good indication that this schedule still isn’t fixed.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 5:05 am

tullamarine wrote:
3K has down-sized post pandemic. It relies more than ever on connecting passengers for QF, KL, EK etc in SIN for onward services which makes it more a competitor for SQ 7M8s than the TR A320s going forward. This means it is imperative that 3K keep operating from T1 in SIN. If they are forced to move to T4, I think they are finished. It is also arguable that this revised role means the JetStar branding is less relevant and maybe a revised Qantas branding and product more similar to QF's domestic product may be a way forward.


How do we know that it relies more than ever on connecting pax? QF group doesn't disaggregate data that could tell us this and Singapore doesn't release carrier specific data. What we do know is that they have massively reduced the number of destinations they serve and most are destinations that many of the feeding carriers service directly on their own metal (e.g. BKK, HKT, CGK, DPS, MNL, etc). Other than network balancing connections (not likely large), they really offer a limited number of designations at low frequency. On their biggest routes (capacity-wise), their schedule doesn't even allow for a lot of connections. For example, only one of their three daily SIN-KUL can offer connections to QF inbounds from SYD, MEL, PER and BNE. That same flight offers a long connection for one of the EK flights (other EK flight doesn't connect), same for KL. Same situation for CGK. MNL misses most. DPS doesn't work at all. From the schedule, it's not clear that they're even targeting connections in the same way anymore. Where they'd be of value as a connecting carrier are the secondary routes that the majors don't serve directly, but the frequencies are very low and schedule not designed for optimal connections.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 5:30 am

evanb wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
3K has down-sized post pandemic. It relies more than ever on connecting passengers for QF, KL, EK etc in SIN for onward services which makes it more a competitor for SQ 7M8s than the TR A320s going forward. This means it is imperative that 3K keep operating from T1 in SIN. If they are forced to move to T4, I think they are finished. It is also arguable that this revised role means the JetStar branding is less relevant and maybe a revised Qantas branding and product more similar to QF's domestic product may be a way forward.


How do we know that it relies more than ever on connecting pax? QF group doesn't disaggregate data that could tell us this and Singapore doesn't release carrier specific data. What we do know is that they have massively reduced the number of destinations they serve and most are destinations that many of the feeding carriers service directly on their own metal (e.g. BKK, HKT, CGK, DPS, MNL, etc). Other than network balancing connections (not likely large), they really offer a limited number of designations at low frequency. On their biggest routes (capacity-wise), their schedule doesn't even allow for a lot of connections. For example, only one of their three daily SIN-KUL can offer connections to QF inbounds from SYD, MEL, PER and BNE. That same flight offers a long connection for one of the EK flights (other EK flight doesn't connect), same for KL. Same situation for CGK. MNL misses most. DPS doesn't work at all. From the schedule, it's not clear that they're even targeting connections in the same way anymore. Where they'd be of value as a connecting carrier are the secondary routes that the majors don't serve directly, but the frequencies are very low and schedule not designed for optimal connections.

As a regular traveller from CGK, I can tell you the number of connecting passengers is huge. QF only serves SYD from CGK and, even then, not daily. When I check in on 3K204, which I do quite often, there are a significant number of passengers who are connecting onto evening services from SIN on QF, EK, KL which are all codeshared on the service. The same applies on 3K205 from SIN which connects those arriving into SIN during the late afternoon bank of services for a 9PM arrival into CGK.

As I say, if 3K has to move to T4, it is finished. If QF can't convince SIN to continue to allow 3K to operate from T1, it must push for the lightly used T2 which is a quick walk or Skytrain over to T1; T4 is death.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 5:52 am

evanb wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
3K has down-sized post pandemic. It relies more than ever on connecting passengers for QF, KL, EK etc in SIN for onward services which makes it more a competitor for SQ 7M8s than the TR A320s going forward. This means it is imperative that 3K keep operating from T1 in SIN. If they are forced to move to T4, I think they are finished. It is also arguable that this revised role means the JetStar branding is less relevant and maybe a revised Qantas branding and product more similar to QF's domestic product may be a way forward.


How do we know that it relies more than ever on connecting pax? QF group doesn't disaggregate data that could tell us this and Singapore doesn't release carrier specific data. What we do know is that they have massively reduced the number of destinations they serve and most are destinations that many of the feeding carriers service directly on their own metal (e.g. BKK, HKT, CGK, DPS, MNL, etc). Other than network balancing connections (not likely large), they really offer a limited number of designations at low frequency. On their biggest routes (capacity-wise), their schedule doesn't even allow for a lot of connections. For example, only one of their three daily SIN-KUL can offer connections to QF inbounds from SYD, MEL, PER and BNE. That same flight offers a long connection for one of the EK flights (other EK flight doesn't connect), same for KL. Same situation for CGK. MNL misses most. DPS doesn't work at all. From the schedule, it's not clear that they're even targeting connections in the same way anymore. Where they'd be of value as a connecting carrier are the secondary routes that the majors don't serve directly, but the frequencies are very low and schedule not designed for optimal connections.


I also wouldn’t say they down sized post pandemic, they downsized during the pandemic. Pandemic is hardly over in a lot of Asia with many travel restrictions in place, or only now slowly lifting- recovery will be slower in the region, as will a return of capacity. Not sure how Singapore is going with labour shortages?

The aircraft were moved to Network in WA? As Asia opens up and the return on investment changes they maybe shifted back to Asia, or as 321LR arrive for JQ older CEOs maybe sent to Asia instead of retirement - the benefit of commonality they can shift the fleet around as demand shrinks and grows!

Interesting they have also JetStar connect which I could see expanded- thus far interline with Tiger Taiwan, and Indigo, interesting way to grow connections through SIN.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:46 am

tullamarine wrote:

As I say, if 3K has to move to T4, it is finished. If QF can't convince SIN to continue to allow 3K to operate from T1, it must push for the lightly used T2 which is a quick walk or Skytrain over to T1; T4 is death.


I’m just confused about what changed for SIN to adopt this stance. With T2 reopening Scoot should relocate there as they used to be which would free up T1 gates. I suppose they want to keep widebody gates at T1 open but it’s not like the terminal is bursting at the seams.

Meanwhile, theres new signage in T1 suggesting airside transit buses to T4 so unfortunately I feel like the writing is on the wall for 3K…
Admittedly as an O&D passenger T4 is a great experience, never crowded.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:55 am

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
tullamarine wrote:

As I say, if 3K has to move to T4, it is finished. If QF can't convince SIN to continue to allow 3K to operate from T1, it must push for the lightly used T2 which is a quick walk or Skytrain over to T1; T4 is death.


I’m just confused about what changed for SIN to adopt this stance. With T2 reopening Scoot should relocate there as they used to be which would free up T1 gates. I suppose they want to keep widebody gates at T1 open but it’s not like the terminal is bursting at the seams.

Meanwhile, theres new signage in T1 suggesting airside transit buses to T4 so unfortunately I feel like the writing is on the wall for 3K…
Admittedly as an O&D passenger T4 is a great experience, never crowded.

I assume you have to clear security in T1 somewhere to access the T4 transit bus. The general transit area in T1 (T2 and T3 also) does not qualify as a secure zone so you could not access a bus without clearing an international standard security point.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:58 am

VA continues to expand with an announcement today that is has ordered another 4 737-8s on top of the 4 already scheduled for delivery early next year. VA has also announced it will position a 737NG simulator in Perth to support the VARA 737-700 fleet that is replacing the F100s. https://newsroom.virginaustralia.com/release/virgin-australia-expands-boeing-737-max-8-fleet-and-secures-access-full-flight-simulator
 
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CostaDelSol90
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 7:14 am

Just to reiterate, there is no VARA 700 fleet, they will all be on the VAA AOC.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 7:18 am

tullamarine wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
tullamarine wrote:

As I say, if 3K has to move to T4, it is finished. If QF can't convince SIN to continue to allow 3K to operate from T1, it must push for the lightly used T2 which is a quick walk or Skytrain over to T1; T4 is death.


I’m just confused about what changed for SIN to adopt this stance. With T2 reopening Scoot should relocate there as they used to be which would free up T1 gates. I suppose they want to keep widebody gates at T1 open but it’s not like the terminal is bursting at the seams.

Meanwhile, theres new signage in T1 suggesting airside transit buses to T4 so unfortunately I feel like the writing is on the wall for 3K…
Admittedly as an O&D passenger T4 is a great experience, never crowded.

I assume you have to clear security in T1 somewhere to access the T4 transit bus. The general transit area in T1 (T2 and T3 also) does not qualify as a secure zone so you could not access a bus without clearing an international standard security point.


The old T2 to T4 airside transit had you go to a gate in T2 to be screened like a normal departing passenger before boarding the shuttle to T4 so I’m assuming it would be the same process.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 7:47 am

tullamarine wrote:
As a regular traveller from CGK, I can tell you the number of connecting passengers is huge. QF only serves SYD from CGK and, even then, not daily. When I check in on 3K204, which I do quite often, there are a significant number of passengers who are connecting onto evening services from SIN on QF, EK, KL which are all codeshared on the service. The same applies on 3K205 from SIN which connects those arriving into SIN during the late afternoon bank of services for a 9PM arrival into CGK.


So one flight is the evidence that the whole operation "relies more than ever on connecting passengers "? That was my point - that it's a very small number of flights that are even viable, so hardly that the operation is reliant on it.

At present 3K have two daily SIN-CGK. Only one presents any realistic possibility of a feed from QF, JQ, EK and KL. The second flight is 3K201, a 7:50am departure from SIN. There are no QF, JQ, EK or KL early morning arrivals in SIN at present. They are all late afternoon and early evening arrivals into SIN. Do people overnight for a connection. Small numbers may, likely very low yield and hardly reliant given alternatives.

The same scheduling challenges exist for most/all other routes, and even worse on a lot of routes. Take DPS as an example. 3K also have two daily departures. Morning departure has the same challenge as CGK. Afternoon departure is 3:50pm, so too early for most connections. Only EK can make it with a 50 minute connection.

Let's look at KUL, their biggest route at present with three daily departures. First two are too early for any connections. Only the third is possible. BKK, HKT and MNL: two flights, morning and early evening (most still less than daily for some or both flights, so limited flights that can make connections). Morning is not possible, evening possible. PNH and PEN are afternoon and evening. But same problem. In this case, frequency is only about 3x week combined. CRK is haphazard - no connections possible. SUB morning only - no connections possible.

So we're looking at one flight to CGK and KUL, and a very limited hodgepodge to others. Probably looking at only a quarter to a third of flights can even make connections, nevermind being reliant on them for connecting passengers.
 
a320fan
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:48 am

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
tullamarine wrote:

As I say, if 3K has to move to T4, it is finished. If QF can't convince SIN to continue to allow 3K to operate from T1, it must push for the lightly used T2 which is a quick walk or Skytrain over to T1; T4 is death.

Meanwhile, theres new signage in T1 suggesting airside transit buses to T4 so unfortunately I feel like the writing is on the wall for 3K…
Admittedly as an O&D passenger T4 is a great experience, never crowded.

People keep quoting EK connections, but isn’t EK in T4?
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:56 am

a320fan wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
tullamarine wrote:

As I say, if 3K has to move to T4, it is finished. If QF can't convince SIN to continue to allow 3K to operate from T1, it must push for the lightly used T2 which is a quick walk or Skytrain over to T1; T4 is death.

Meanwhile, theres new signage in T1 suggesting airside transit buses to T4 so unfortunately I feel like the writing is on the wall for 3K…
Admittedly as an O&D passenger T4 is a great experience, never crowded.

People keep quoting EK connections, but isn’t EK in T4?


the EK lounge is in T1.

I think the only "major" airline that moved to T4 was CX
(happy to be corrected)
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:19 am

Obzerva wrote:
a320fan wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
Meanwhile, theres new signage in T1 suggesting airside transit buses to T4 so unfortunately I feel like the writing is on the wall for 3K…
Admittedly as an O&D passenger T4 is a great experience, never crowded.

People keep quoting EK connections, but isn’t EK in T4?


the EK lounge is in T1.

I think the only "major" airline that moved to T4 was CX
(happy to be corrected)


+ Korean Air and Vietnam Airlines (in addition to an assortment of LCCs)
 
a320fan
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:36 pm

Rex have posted a 846% increased loss for the last financial year, at $68.3m

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/r ... 1661344473
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 10:49 pm

Qantas to start SYD-AKL-JFK from June 23, 3 weekly 787-9

According to same article the 3 787-9’s won’t be delivered until next year

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... o-lounges/
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Wed Aug 24, 2022 11:01 pm

As part of QF's result announcement which included the inevitable huge loss of over $1.8Bn, it has announced a new route SYD-AKL-LAX. Given the ongoing delays in 789 delivery, this will commence in June 2023. It appears plans for BNE-ORD have been shelved. SYD-AKL-LAX is obviously a short-term route that can expect to be canned once the Sunrise A350s arrive. I assume LAX-JFK will not return at this stage given the new route offers a one-stop service to New York either on the same plane from SYD or via connections in AKL.

No new orders were announced with very modest mainline fleet growth for the next couple of years until the A220s start arriving towards the end of next year.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Thu Aug 25, 2022 12:21 am

tullamarine wrote:
As part of QF's result announcement which included the inevitable huge loss of over $1.8Bn, it has announced a new route SYD-AKL-LAX. Given the ongoing delays in 789 delivery, this will commence in June 2023. It appears plans for BNE-ORD have been shelved. SYD-AKL-LAX is obviously a short-term route that can expect to be canned once the Sunrise A350s arrive. I assume LAX-JFK will not return at this stage given the new route offers a one-stop service to New York either on the same plane from SYD or via connections in AKL.

No new orders were announced with very modest mainline fleet growth for the next couple of years until the A220s start arriving towards the end of next year.


AKL-JFK?

Makes sense AKL is a much better transit experience than LAX was. Be even better with the news of finally redoing the AKL lounge, although SYD and MEL remain dire! Only last two years before the 350s arrive anywho.

I think next 12 months will be the telling time for QF industrial action by engineers has started with a 1min strike at every shift, good statement move - nothing too dramatic, but shows they mean business. QF have a massive problem with staff engagement and retention, I just don’t feel AJ is the man to lead them out of it. Costs will need to go up, and a people leader will be required -AJ is a numbers man, not sure he can balance the two.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Thu Aug 25, 2022 12:45 am

I think next 12 months will be the telling time for QF industrial action by engineers has started with a 1min strike at every shift, good statement move - nothing too dramatic, but shows they mean business. QF have a massive problem with staff engagement and retention, I just don’t feel AJ is the man to lead them out of it. Costs will need to go up, and a people leader will be required -AJ is a numbers man, not sure he can balance the two.


Check out the QF results presentation; they have 5 pages dedicated to their service inadequacies but nowhere in those 5 pages do they take responsibility and apologise which tends to suggest they still don't get it. At every turn, they have stuffed this up. Even their announcement earlier this week was a mess with the bizarre outcome that those who hadn't travelled got rewarded and their status extended whilst those who remained loyal and put up with the whole mess got nothing apart from a $50 voucher of dubious value given QF's prices are already amongst the highest in the market.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Thu Aug 25, 2022 1:04 am

tullamarine wrote:
As part of QF's result announcement which included the inevitable huge loss of over $1.8Bn, it has announced a new route SYD-AKL-LAX. Given the ongoing delays in 789 delivery, this will commence in June 2023. It appears plans for BNE-ORD have been shelved. SYD-AKL-LAX is obviously a short-term route that can expect to be canned once the Sunrise A350s arrive. I assume LAX-JFK will not return at this stage given the new route offers a one-stop service to New York either on the same plane from SYD or via connections in AKL.

No new orders were announced with very modest mainline fleet growth for the next couple of years until the A220s start arriving towards the end of next year.


Congrats to QF! This is a ballsy move! For all the horrible operational issues over the last 6 months, QF have certainly shifted away from their conservative self in terms of their route planning and strategy taking the chance with India, the SYD-PER-FCO summer test, SYD-ICN and now this. It's a far more aggressive QF!

The fallback will be to shelve it once SYD-JFK can go non-stop with the A350, but no reason it wouldn't continue if they pick up local traffic of sufficient yield. AA have a sizeable sales POP in New York and QF in New Zealand, so no reason that they couldn't continue it going forward. But this is certainly an interim measure. That said, quite a utilisation cost on the B789 compared to the LAX-JFK shuttle so it'll have a high bar to reach. It's not just the 36 hour utilisation AKL-JFK-AKL, but the 10 hours SYD-AKL-SYD for positioning.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:33 am

With the AKL flight coming out of left field, what does this do for the 789 fleet needs and likely distribution?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Fri Aug 26, 2022 1:17 am

qf2220 wrote:
With the AKL flight coming out of left field, what does this do for the 789 fleet needs and likely distribution?

It means that about 1.5 of the 3 789s delayed and now expected to be delivered in Q1 next year are accounted for to cover this route. Another is covered by the change of QF37/38 to 789 from March so realistically there is not much more that can be added to the 789 schedules unless it is replaced by the returning A380s.
 
NZ516
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Fri Aug 26, 2022 1:59 am

tullamarine wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
With the AKL flight coming out of left field, what does this do for the 789 fleet needs and likely distribution?

It means that about 1.5 of the 3 789s delayed and now expected to be delivered in Q1 next year are accounted for to cover this route. Another is covered by the change of QF37/38 to 789 from March so realistically there is not much more that can be added to the 789 schedules unless it is replaced by the returning A380s.


It will take 6 days of flying for one 789 to cover the SYD-AKL-JFK 3 per week service.
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220825-qfns23jfk
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Fri Aug 26, 2022 2:04 am

qf2220 wrote:
what does this do for the 789 fleet needs and likely distribution?


I just tried to do a back-of-a-napkin schedule to gauge 787 utilisation for July 2023, and it transpires that the schedule currently loaded into the GDS cannot be operated with 14 aircraft. The schedule is, however, quite inefficient with a lot of aircraft downtime, albeit not on the right days to dovetail the schedule together. I suspect there will be a schedule update for many 787 routes between now and NS23, as it theoretically should work.
 
AdvancedBikkie
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Fri Aug 26, 2022 4:06 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
what does this do for the 789 fleet needs and likely distribution?


I just tried to do a back-of-a-napkin schedule to gauge 787 utilisation for July 2023, and it transpires that the schedule currently loaded into the GDS cannot be operated with 14 aircraft. The schedule is, however, quite inefficient with a lot of aircraft downtime, albeit not on the right days to dovetail the schedule together. I suspect there will be a schedule update for many 787 routes between now and NS23, as it theoretically should work.


From this other thread:

viewtopic.php?p=23438687#p23438687

I feel like QF has something up their sleeve, be it transferring 788s or buying up whitetail 789s.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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QQF

Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:26 am

Having had a look through QF's Investors' Presentation to the ASX:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apima ... a206a39ff4

Page 30 has some interesting info about forthcoming fleet deliveries; I've excluded cargo planes.

B787 FY23: 3.... FY29: 3
A35K FY25: 1... FY29: 12
A223 FY24: 7, FY25: 7, FY29: 20
A321XLR FY25: 7, FY29: 20.

1. I find it curious/interesting that there is no indication of a B787 top up order, for the foreseeable future. Is QF abandoning the 787? And the reason I ask that is the recent proposal for a new WB order: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1476081
In terms of fleet commonality/pilot rating, the A338/A339 would make some sense.
2. Is there a likelihood that QF may replace the B789 with the A359ULR?
3. My interpretation of the above info' is that the A223 will enter QF mainline for both domestic and international ops. So is it safe to presume that we will see an A221 in QFLink colours at some point?
4. I can foresee that the A321XLR might cover off some of the routes in the Golden Triangle, but I'm of the opinion that they will use it for more possibly "longish" and/or but "thin" routes to offer increased frequency. eg. SYD-CGK.

Cheers.
 
Qf648
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Fri Aug 26, 2022 1:12 pm

tullamarine wrote:
I think next 12 months will be the telling time for QF industrial action by engineers has started with a 1min strike at every shift, good statement move - nothing too dramatic, but shows they mean business. QF have a massive problem with staff engagement and retention, I just don’t feel AJ is the man to lead them out of it. Costs will need to go up, and a people leader will be required -AJ is a numbers man, not sure he can balance the two.


Check out the QF results presentation; they have 5 pages dedicated to their service inadequacies but nowhere in those 5 pages do they take responsibility and apologise which tends to suggest they still don't get it. At every turn, they have stuffed this up. Even their announcement earlier this week was a mess with the bizarre outcome that those who hadn't travelled got rewarded and their status extended whilst those who remained loyal and put up with the whole mess got nothing apart from a $50 voucher of dubious value given QF's prices are already amongst the highest in the market.


But they have 5 pages of information knowing where they're not up to spec. I think they do get it, but if things don't improve what are people really going to do? Fly VA or REX?

The answer to that is simply no, QF holds an effective monopoly on the market. How else can they get away with marking up fares to the extent they have? Ive seen fares on ADL->PER go from 280 one way to close on 500, and JQ fares rise from 170 to close 300.

So there is not really pressure to be super apologetic, they just need to fix the issues and the public will come back because we are just suckers for the red kangaroo branding.

The last 6 months has simply been atrocious with constant delays, sub standard service and constant mismanagement of issues by all airlines. So they're fighting on a general even playing ground of mediocrity.

Due to the fare increases and general pathetic service I've been looking and managed to get a job out of FIFO which I've been doing for the last 9 years. I used to like flying, I don't anymore. I simply won't miss this level of service.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Fri Aug 26, 2022 1:20 pm

AdvancedBikkie wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
what does this do for the 789 fleet needs and likely distribution?


I just tried to do a back-of-a-napkin schedule to gauge 787 utilisation for July 2023, and it transpires that the schedule currently loaded into the GDS cannot be operated with 14 aircraft. The schedule is, however, quite inefficient with a lot of aircraft downtime, albeit not on the right days to dovetail the schedule together. I suspect there will be a schedule update for many 787 routes between now and NS23, as it theoretically should work.


From this other thread:

viewtopic.php?p=23438687#p23438687

I feel like QF has something up their sleeve, be it transferring 788s or buying up whitetail 789s.


Which post are you directing us to there?

Either way, they don’t necessarily need more aircraft, just need to tweak the schedules to line up what they’ve loaded in the GDS with an efficient use of aircraft.

As an example, SYD-SFO is scheduled as 4x weekly and SYD-AKL-JFK as 3x weekly. You could operate these two routes with 2 frames if they are scheduled on alternate days. However, the days that they’re scheduled to operate overlaps so you need 3 frames, which results in quite a lot of time where the aircraft are doing nothing. I couldn’t find any useful combination for those aircraft during that time, it is basically dead time.

One that intrigues me is that MEL-LAX has an aircraft in LAX for 100 hours. Surely that’s just an oversight with the schedule not finalised? On the one hand, an A-check can be performed during regular downtime at LAX, while on the other hand that isn’t enough time for a C-check.
 
SIGWX
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Re: QQF

Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:40 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
3. My interpretation of the above info' is that the A223 will enter QF mainline for both domestic and international ops. So is it safe to presume that we will see an A221 in QFLink colours at some point?


Regarding the A223, the first 20 will be operated by NJS, the Qantas subsidiary that currently operates the B717. Whether they’re painted in Qantas or QantasLink colours is uncertain as recent artwork has been published with both paint schemes.

The J seats will be evolved versions of existing Qantas B737 J seats and the Y seats will be similar to existing Qantas B787 Y seats. USB and PC charging in every seat. Satellite wifi (ViaSat) and streaming entertainment to pax’s personal devices will be installed. No seatback screens.

It will fly domestic operations only to start with and the first line crews may start training for it in mid 2023, trainers obviously will start training earlier. The first aircraft should arrive in Sept 2023, but will fly around without pax for some time to clear regulatory requirements.

Later on, it will be allowed to fly up to 3 hours from a suitable airport and approved to conduct RNP-AR approaches (RNP 0.1).

Regarding A221’s, they will come later. Their operator is yet to be decided.
 
NZ516
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:00 pm

Looking likely more 787 delays for Qantas with the SFO service return pushed back and now the MEL-DFW service reduction from 4 to 3 pw.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220827-qfns23sfo
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220827-qfnw22meldfw
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:51 am

Asiana ICN-SYD will see A388 operate 3 of 7 weekly between 12 Jan and 28 Feb 23

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220825-oznw22388
 
smi0006
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Re: QQF

Sun Aug 28, 2022 11:23 am

SIGWX wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
3. My interpretation of the above info' is that the A223 will enter QF mainline for both domestic and international ops. So is it safe to presume that we will see an A221 in QFLink colours at some point?


Regarding the A223, the first 20 will be operated by NJS, the Qantas subsidiary that currently operates the B717. Whether they’re painted in Qantas or QantasLink colours is uncertain as recent artwork has been published with both paint schemes.

The J seats will be evolved versions of existing Qantas B737 J seats and the Y seats will be similar to existing Qantas B787 Y seats. USB and PC charging in every seat. Satellite wifi (ViaSat) and streaming entertainment to pax’s personal devices will be installed. No seatback screens.

It will fly domestic operations only to start with and the first line crews may start training for it in mid 2023, trainers obviously will start training earlier. The first aircraft should arrive in Sept 2023, but will fly around without pax for some time to clear regulatory requirements.

Later on, it will be allowed to fly up to 3 hours from a suitable airport and approved to conduct RNP-AR approaches (RNP 0.1).

Regarding A221’s, they will come later. Their operator is yet to be decided.


Have we seen confirmed seats, or cabin? Was hoping they would follow the Air Canada lead and install PTVs like the most modern 738 - some of these A220 could do some decent length domestic flights. I know personal opinion (and not looking to reopen the debate) but love a PTV over my own device.
 
kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:03 pm

qf789 wrote:
Asiana ICN-SYD will see A388 operate 3 of 7 weekly between 12 Jan and 28 Feb 23

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220825-oznw22388


I wish that the Korean carriers would give MEL some love, yes OZ did a short stint pre-COVID but would be great to get a regular MEL-ICN route going.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:41 pm

kriskim wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Asiana ICN-SYD will see A388 operate 3 of 7 weekly between 12 Jan and 28 Feb 23

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220825-oznw22388


I wish that the Korean carriers would give MEL some love, yes OZ did a short stint pre-COVID but would be great to get a regular MEL-ICN route going.


Just goes to show how much stronger the SYD market is for Korean demand.

MEL may have its strong markets, but it seems Korea isn’t one that adds up. I would have liked to see JQ give it a try from MEL, but even then they are launching SYD-ICN instead.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:58 pm

BITRE for June (International)

Overall very good numbers for the month particularly outbound

Etihad had a load factor of 100% for the month, while QR was 99.1% and EK at 98.4%
SYD-PER-FCO, while there were only 4 flights outbound LF was 97.5%
LHR both from PER and SYD LF was 98.5%
All round Qantas saw most destinations with LF of over 90%
Jetstar all destinations saw an outbound LF of over 90% with exception to NZ
VA, both NAN 94.6% and DPS 95.1%
NZ averaged 95% LF
Royal Brunei only averaging just under 40% LF ex MEL
Newcomer Bamboo Airways record 87% LF ex MEL/SYD

https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/ ... y_0622.pdf
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:25 pm

Royal Brunei appears to be dropping frequency on MEL-BWN soon which makes sense.

No wonder EY have upgraded flights to 77W’s. Will be interesting to see whether they look to boost frequency at some point if they can continue to fill seats, even if it’s just peak season increases that they look at moving forward.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Sun Aug 28, 2022 11:05 pm

The Australian today reports that 4 Corners is preparing an article on Qantas and its various 2022 issues. Apparently it got a bit tense at Thursday's results press conference where Stephen Long from ABC peppered AJ with a series of questions that eventually resulted in a Qantas PR staffer removed the microphone from Long. Apparently, 4 Corners has approached AJ for an interview but QF will only agree if the interview is aired unedited which is unlikely to be agreed to as a straight 45 minute interview is typically not riveting viewing.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Mon Aug 29, 2022 1:44 am

Thai AirAsia X to launch 3 weekly BKK-MEL from 1 Dec 22 and 4 weekly BKK- SYD from 2 Dec 22

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220828-xjnw22au
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:41 am

qf789 wrote:
Thai AirAsia X to launch 3 weekly BKK-MEL from 1 Dec 22 and 4 weekly BKK- SYD from 2 Dec 22

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220828-xjnw22au


Did Thai Air Asia move their operations from Don Muang to Suvarnabhumi? I’m slightly surprised that it’s from BKK rather than DMK.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:50 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Thai AirAsia X to launch 3 weekly BKK-MEL from 1 Dec 22 and 4 weekly BKK- SYD from 2 Dec 22

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220828-xjnw22au


Did Thai Air Asia move their operations from Don Muang to Suvarnabhumi? I’m slightly surprised that it’s from BKK rather than DMK.


Looking at FR24 most of the A320 ops are still from DMK with only a few flights to HKT from BKK, A333 ops look like they are all ex BKK as NRT flights operate from BKK as well
 
kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Mon Aug 29, 2022 9:13 am

qf789 wrote:
Thai AirAsia X to launch 3 weekly BKK-MEL from 1 Dec 22 and 4 weekly BKK- SYD from 2 Dec 22

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220828-xjnw22au


Interestingly that MEL & SYD will have 3 airlines flying to BKK, yet BNE won’t even get a service to Thailand as TG won’t be back. I would have thought XJ would return to BNE before starting SYD and MEL as they would have the market all to themselves but decided not to.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:30 am

kriskim wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Thai AirAsia X to launch 3 weekly BKK-MEL from 1 Dec 22 and 4 weekly BKK- SYD from 2 Dec 22

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220828-xjnw22au


Interestingly that MEL & SYD will have 3 airlines flying to BKK, yet BNE won’t even get a service to Thailand as TG won’t be back. I would have thought XJ would return to BNE before starting SYD and MEL as they would have the market all to themselves but decided not to.


XJ iirc had load issues on BNE-DMK during their short time on the route, which from memory loads was heavily seasonal considering it was a AAIF funded route to help Tourism in Queensland.

If XJ were reportedly struggling even with AAIF support where they were planning to terminate the route even before the COVID shutdowns, chances of them returning would be very low as well
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2022

Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:36 am

Being the only carrier on a smaller market isn’t always something that makes sense.

Looking at MEL/SYD-Thailand/Vietnam/India being a few examples where there are multiple airlines flying and no service to BNE. I agree that it would appear to be odd, but the airlines must be looking at getting a share of a bigger pie instead of trying to operate as the only carrier in a smaller market.

Certainly interesting to see how things are progressing with new routes, airlines and a change of focus also in some instances - including XJ opening MEL/SYD instead of resuming BNE, D7 moving back to MEL from AVV.
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