yeah I fully agree. Good move by Airbus.

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Noshow wrote:

Below the line it is not good to estrange from a key customer like this. Both side's CEOs should be able to negotiate anything instead of parting ways. The red line for Airbus seems to have been to be called flight safety compromised in public. I agree that Qatar might have ordered too many A350s. But wouldn't there be a quieter way out of this? What prices will Qatar have to pay at Boeing now with no other supplier left?

Still the paint must be made robust enough for all climates. It's a big surprise to see problems like this surface after all those years with CFRP.

The key word here is "should". And then there's AAB...

OOI Has there been any word from QR pilots (on places like a.net or some other forum) on how they see this situation? What does QR do with all the 350 certified pilots they have when more and more planes are being grounded?

I get it things soured between the two parties, but why didn't Qatar just make a deal with Airbus and cancel the order and make it easier for Airbus to remarket these frames without having with basically make and paint an entire frame to the client's specification only to not get paid and delivery being rejected. I honestly believe if they at least acted like a slightly mature adult, Airbus wouldn't have gone nuclear with A321neo order.

I speculate, one of factor in delayed Air India deal is this uncertainity, which is now sorted.

Where do QR go from here? Do they have a short-term problem, and are there any white-tail 787s built that could be made available to them quickly? If not, are there any yet to be built early delivery positions likely to be available to them?

DartHerald wrote:

Where do QR go from here? Do they have a short-term problem, and are there any white-tail 787s built that could be made available to them quickly? If not, are there any yet to be built early delivery positions likely to be available to them?

Their position is entirely of their own making. They have a number of 787s completed and awaiting delivery. However, at this point, they probably have little idea when they'll finally be delivered. I'm sure some of the 120-odd built but undelivered 787s will be NTU and thus available, but refitting and repainting will all take time.

Wow, immense confidence of Airbus...

They must already have other customers lined up for those frames and have the confidence in their product (A350) while at the same time knowing that Boeing can not deliver...frames and quality...

I believe that Airbus are publishing their July figures on Monday. Let's see is QR have any orders left. (Of course, it may be that the cancellation was in August and we'll have to wait for another month for confirmation.)

DartHerald wrote:

Where do QR go from here? Do they have a short-term problem, and are there any white-tail 787s built that could be made available to them quickly? If not, are there any yet to be built early delivery positions likely to be available to them?

To me, short term , I’d rush to lease more frames from Cathy pacific (77w) or flat out buy them and refurb until Boeing delivers there contract.

Long term: I can totally see QR ditching the a350( yes brand new perfectly fine aircraft) and replacing the entire fleet with 787/777x. In fact it would not surprise if QR announces more Dreamliner orders within the month.

LSZH34 wrote:

Wow, immense confidence of Airbus...

They must already have other customers lined up for those frames and have the confidence in their product (A350) while at the same time knowing that Boeing can not deliver...frames and quality...

Not necessarily. But why would Airbus spend the time, effort and cost to build a plane that the customer is then going to refuse to accept?

Clues to QRs true intentions re forward A350 deliveries (at least to the point of Airbus having cancelled them) are surely to be found if anyone has been able to track what they have told the suppliers of BFE items (seats, IFE, other cabin furnishings). Have they put these on hold, stopped paying progress payments or cancelled them outright. If delayed or cancelled, no way could Airbus respect the original delivery schedule even if it was all (metaphorical) hugs and kisses straight away.

LSZH34 wrote:

Wow, immense confidence of Airbus...

Absolutely.

It's an in-demand aircraft and I suspect these QR orders were at lower margin than what they could achieve today.

QR is also going to struggle to get good pricing on any future orders. Boeing knows they have no other options, and there is a massive risk premium in case of similar behaviours.

scbriml wrote:

LSZH34 wrote:

Wow, immense confidence of Airbus...

They must already have other customers lined up for those frames and have the confidence in their product (A350) while at the same time knowing that Boeing can not deliver...frames and quality...

Not necessarily. But why would Airbus spend the time, effort and cost to build a plane that the customer is then going to refuse to accept?

Airbus has to fill its end of the contract. For Airbus they want to look as good in front of the judge as possible, thus means doing everything possible to make it look like they are trying to fill every part of their contact. If QR refuses to take aircraft then that just gives Airbus and easy case as to why the should be able to cancel the orders. Honestly there is a chance that a judge might order QR to pay Airbus resitution for any expenses related to unaccepted frames. If AAB wasn't invloved then QR might have a chance, however with him bring a part of this Airbus will have an easy win.

Pinto wrote:

Airbus has to fill its end of the contract.

Of course. Airbus will be able to point to the four or five completed frames that QR refused to accept (presumably having not made the final pre-delivery payment). At that point Airbus is out of pocket and QR in breach of contract. I'm sure Airbus's lawyers are very confident there's no legal blowback in cancelling the outstanding orders.

Pinto wrote:

If AAB wasn't invloved then QR might have a chance, however with him bring a part of this Airbus will have an easy win.

I'd go as far as to suggest that without AAB's involvement, this situation would have never arrisen.

accentra wrote:

Until there is some definitive statement from one or both parties, which there might not be, it's just speculation (obviously) about this. It's easy to jump to conclusions when reports are spun certain ways (using emotive words like 'axes'). However, it's not actually impossible that the two sides have reached some kind of agreement to terminate the rest of the undelivered order (as it's in both sides interests to do so) while agreeing that the dispute over the delivered aircraft is best settled in the pending court case. Not saying that's what's happened, only that there is next to no information available right now and there could be multiple explanations, not just one side acting unilaterally.

It's been more than 24hrs since the story broke, and still no comment from either side. Last time when the a321neo order got cancelled, QR responded pretty swiftly if im not wrong. The likelihood of it being an agreed cancellation could be stronger.

Scherer would be the diplomat guy to handle this perfectly. Faury might be more passionate vs. AAB I'd guess.

Well, good luck to QR.

One of two vendors in town no longer willing to do business with them and the other vendor's aircraft that are on order, let me see, delayed (777X), cannot be delivered (787) or have difficulties getting certified (MAX10) - this in a situation where QR now has close to zero leverage when it comes to putting pressure on Boeing...

vfw614 wrote:

Well, good luck to QR.

One of two vendors in town no longer willing to do business with them and the other vendor's aircraft that are on order, let me see, delayed (777X), cannot be delivered (787) or have difficulties getting certified (MAX10) - this in a situation where QR now has close to zero leverage when it comes to putting pressure on Boeing...

If only there were companies that buy aircraft and lease them to airlines... Let's not pretend that QR will no longer have access to Airbus aircraft although it may not be their preferred pathway.

vfw614 wrote:

Well, good luck to QR.

One of two vendors in town no longer willing to do business with them and the other vendor's aircraft that are on order, let me see, delayed (777X), cannot be delivered (787) or have difficulties getting certified (MAX10) - this in a situation where QR now has close to zero leverage when it comes to putting pressure on Boeing...

Cannot be delivered 787 till next week or so but okay we get your point

Heavierthanair wrote:

Airbus must have lined up other takers for these aircraft, per orders and deliveries 19 A350-1000 are outstanding. Just wonder who that may be

Air India, most likely...

JohanTally wrote:

If only there were companies that buy aircraft and lease them to airlines... Let's not pretend that QR will no longer have access to Airbus aircraft although it may not be their preferred pathway.

They will only be able to do this on operating leases because Airbus will then be contractually dealing with the lessor. If it is a finance lease, QR will be the owner - a no no for Airbus.

Opus99 wrote:

vfw614 wrote:

Well, good luck to QR.

One of two vendors in town no longer willing to do business with them and the other vendor's aircraft that are on order, let me see, delayed (777X), cannot be delivered (787) or have difficulties getting certified (MAX10) - this in a situation where QR now has close to zero leverage when it comes to putting pressure on Boeing...

Cannot be delivered 787 till next week or so but okay we get your point

I believe the delivery process will be long and also QR will have to stay in queue for a while.

I guess with Airbus canceling the entire remaining order, this proves that their will be no mediation between both parties in the near future. We will have to wait till the court trials and final decision.

marcelh wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

marcelh wrote:

Interesting way of framing. Blaming Airbus instead of QR and downplay the childish behavior of QR because they “can be difficult”. Looking at the facts it’s clear this customer didn’t want to be satisfied and has done as much as possible -including a grounding- to get rid of those planes.

What's the contribution margin (revenue - variable cost) on ~fifty widebodies and ~fifty 321neos that Airbus might not sell to Qatar over the next decade? It was very costly for Airbus to walk away. There is no place else to go. Qatar as a carrier isn't going to disappear. Airbus just handed this margin to Boeing. There is no place else to go.

Question is does it hurt Airbus more than keeping QR as a customer at all costs? They may lose the contribution margin, but don’t have to deal with them (making additional costs).

I'm sure the old management truism that you spend 80% of your time dealing with 20% of your workforce holds up here. It must cost Airbus an absolute fortune in staff hours to keep placating QR. Well, they aren't doing it anymore. Good on them, tbh.

Armodeen wrote:

marcelh wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

What's the contribution margin (revenue - variable cost) on ~fifty widebodies and ~fifty 321neos that Airbus might not sell to Qatar over the next decade? It was very costly for Airbus to walk away. There is no place else to go. Qatar as a carrier isn't going to disappear. Airbus just handed this margin to Boeing. There is no place else to go.

Question is does it hurt Airbus more than keeping QR as a customer at all costs? They may lose the contribution margin, but don’t have to deal with them (making additional costs).

I'm sure the old management truism that you spend 80% of your time dealing with 20% of your workforce holds up here. It must cost Airbus an absolute fortune in staff hours to keep placating QR. Well, they aren't doing it anymore. Good on them, tbh.

Every customer has basically a balance sheet: revenue minus cost (every cost: product, customer support, etc.).
Even big customers can have negative balance sheets; at some point, it is better to cut them off than keep sinking money to try and please them.

With both sides at a stalemate, I can see AB cancelling the order, if for no other reason, to have some of the negative publicity put on a back burner. I'm sure that they have enough orders to defer those NTU aircraft to other customers. Hopefully, they have actually found the root cause and have addressed it on future aircraft..

lxman1 wrote:

Hopefully, they have actually found the root cause and have addressed it on future aircraft..

They have on both counts... by not selling airplanes to QR.

moa999 wrote:

LSZH34 wrote:

Wow, immense confidence of Airbus...

Absolutely.

It's an in-demand aircraft and I suspect these QR orders were at lower margin than what they could achieve today.

QR is also going to struggle to get good pricing on any future orders. Boeing knows they have no other options, and there is a massive risk premium in case of similar behaviours.

Err the A35K is far from being an in demand aircraft.

Francoflier wrote:

lxman1 wrote:

Hopefully, they have actually found the root cause and have addressed it on future aircraft..

They have on both counts... by not selling airplanes to QR.

Do you have a source that the root cause has been identified and remediated?

In my view, the vendor / customer concept is too simplistic for these deals; these are long term partnerships rather than discrete transactions. Sometimes, extremely rarely, the supplier/vendor fires its partner because the partner is not operating in good faith, which is what I suspect is happening here. I’ve done something similar once in my career.

Strategically foolish for AAB;Qatar now has very little competitive leverage in negotiations with Boeing. There will be negotiations of course, but in the end Qatar will accept Boeings price and terms or it won’t acquire new aircraft.

accentra wrote:

Until there is some definitive statement from one or both parties, which there might not be, it's just speculation (obviously) about this. It's easy to jump to conclusions when reports are spun certain ways (using emotive words like 'axes'). However, it's not actually impossible that the two sides have reached some kind of agreement to terminate the rest of the undelivered order (as it's in both sides interests to do so) while agreeing that the dispute over the delivered aircraft is best settled in the pending court case. Not saying that's what's happened, only that there is next to no information available right now and there could be multiple explanations, not just one side acting unilaterally.

Thank you for that thoughtful response. This thread is clearing spiraling down the A-Camp vs B-Camp, with lots of thin skin and pushed in noses on both sides. I appreciate your objectivity and sensibleness.

accentra wrote:

However, it's not actually impossible that the two sides have reached some kind of agreement to terminate the rest of the undelivered order (as it's in both sides interests to do so) while agreeing that the dispute over the delivered aircraft is best settled in the pending court case.

There has always been an agreement in place on how to cancel the outstanding aircraft, that is in the original purchase contract. That same agreement that permitted Airbus to redress damages for aircraft QR failed to pickup. QR sought an injunction to prevent Airbus to cancel or to technically deliver any further aircraft, that injunction was not granted. So the existing agreement, being the purchase agreement, is the agreement between the parties that permits the A320 and A350 orders to be cancelled.

The A350-1000s already built have to be sold. I wonder if an airline like Etihad could be interested in expanding A350 operations. Currently they only operate the A35K to JFK and ORD.

tlecam wrote:

In my view, the vendor / customer concept is too simplistic for these deals; these are long term partnerships rather than discrete transactions. Sometimes, extremely rarely, the supplier/vendor fires its partner because the partner is not operating in good faith, which is what I suspect is happening here. I’ve done something similar once in my career.

Strategically foolish for AAB;Qatar now has very little competitive leverage in negotiations with Boeing. There will be negotiations of course, but in the end Qatar will accept Boeings price and terms or it won’t acquire new aircraft.

You hit the nail on the head there.

It’s not like going to a dealership and buying a Ford or Toyota or whatever.

You are not buying a thing (well you are but let’s not get into that now) you are buying a service.

You get the thing (aircraft) and then support to keep that thing flying. Sure the airlines might have their own maintenance crew but the manufacturer (Airbus/Boeing etc) are still there to support the aircraft.

Think spare parts, physical updates/repairs to flaws discovered later, software updates, obtaining simulators for training aircraft, expert advice on how to best use it, bespoke technical support to increase capability (think qantas asking airbus to increase the range on their A330’s), support or something goes wrong (QF32) and so many others that I have not mentioned.

And that’s all BEFORE you start thinking about the engines!

Like I already said there is SO MUCH MORE than just the things I indicated but it does show that’s it’s so much more complicated that handing over cash and flying away.

Apart from Air India who I have seen mentioned a few times, I wonder who of the current A350 order book:

1. Wants A350’s faster
2. Actually has the ability to speed up introductions
3. Has the will to deal with the stress of changing a timetable like that .
4. Can afford it.

I’m thinking someone who may not have A350’s now but is on the list to receive them in the next 3-5 years.

I’m thinking maybe qantas? I know their A350’s are “special” but if you move several deliveries up that could free up slots for every single other person down the line, everyone moves up a place (or several) so to speak.

On a side note and purely out of engineering curiosity, could (could but not saying you should) modify an already built A350-1000 to suit the parameters of the project sunrise mission? Or are the A350’s QF are getting so different from regular builds that they really need to be new built?

Remember, the question is not:

“Should they?”

But rather:

“Could they?”

Another option I just thought of is maybe Airbus could use some of the cancellations to introduce some slack into the production run? I have no idea what the run looks like ATM or even if they want to introduce any slack into the run

dkramer7 wrote:

Apart from Air India who I have seen mentioned a few times, I wonder who of the current A350 order book:

1. Wants A350’s faster
2. Actually has the ability to speed up introductions
3. Has the will to deal with the stress of changing a timetable like that .
4. Can afford it.

I’m thinking someone who may not have A350’s now but is on the list to receive them in the next 3-5 years.

I’m thinking maybe qantas? I know their A350’s are “special” but if you move several deliveries up that could free up slots for every single other person down the line, everyone moves up a place (or several) so to speak.

On a side note and purely out of engineering curiosity, could (could but not saying you should) modify an already built A350-1000 to suit the parameters of the project sunrise mission? Or are the A350’s QF are getting so different from regular builds that they really need to be new built?

Remember, the question is not:

“Should they?”

But rather:

“Could they?”

Another option I just thought of is maybe Airbus could use some of the cancellations to introduce some slack into the production run? I have no idea what the run looks like ATM or even if they want to introduce any slack into the run

QF likely needs new-build frames as their frames will likely be at a higher MTOW. The other options may be EY, who can use these to accelerate deliveries of its remaining 15 A350s, as EY draws down its B77W fleet, or VS, which has 5 A35Ks remaining on order (although I'm not sure if these are direct orders or from lessors). A wild card could be JL, which has 13 A35Ks on direct order from Airbus, but are they able to accelerate? I see EY as most likely (2-class frames) and JL as least likely (their A35Ks will be 4-class).

aemoreira1981 wrote:

dkramer7 wrote:

Apart from Air India who I have seen mentioned a few times, I wonder who of the current A350 order book:

1. Wants A350’s faster
2. Actually has the ability to speed up introductions
3. Has the will to deal with the stress of changing a timetable like that .
4. Can afford it.

I’m thinking someone who may not have A350’s now but is on the list to receive them in the next 3-5 years.

I’m thinking maybe qantas? I know their A350’s are “special” but if you move several deliveries up that could free up slots for every single other person down the line, everyone moves up a place (or several) so to speak.

On a side note and purely out of engineering curiosity, could (could but not saying you should) modify an already built A350-1000 to suit the parameters of the project sunrise mission? Or are the A350’s QF are getting so different from regular builds that they really need to be new built?

Remember, the question is not:

“Should they?”

But rather:

“Could they?”

Another option I just thought of is maybe Airbus could use some of the cancellations to introduce some slack into the production run? I have no idea what the run looks like ATM or even if they want to introduce any slack into the run

QF likely needs new-build frames as their frames will likely be at a higher MTOW. The other option may be EY, who can use these to accelerate deliveries of its remaining 15 A350s, as EY draws down its B77W fleet.

Before the Latam deal, i would have said Delta. I am not sure if they need more now.

MileHFL400 wrote:

Err the A35K is far from being an in demand aircraft.

That was probably why Airbus cancelled the remaining orders rather than build the QR spec A35Ks only for them to refuse delivery. Cancelling the order means freeing up production slots that will enable them to make models that are in demand.

Opus99 wrote:

Is there anyone else who has this feeling that this is what QR wants?

I think they believe they really over ordered and don’t need as many planes, so maybe tried to find a way out?

And this by no means has nothing to do with the 350. I just think the 350 commitment was more imminent seeing as Boeing cannot deliver 777Xs. So in effect. Just rather take the 777Xs later, take the 787-9s (these are lower risk and versatile and much cheaper).

This whole thing is weird

I think you may be correct. QR did over-order. They needed a way out.

So will QR sooner or later phase out their current A 350‘s?

Sorry if this question has been asked before but I couldn’t find it.

sofianec wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

Is there anyone else who has this feeling that this is what QR wants?

I think they believe they really over ordered and don’t need as many planes, so maybe tried to find a way out?

And this by no means has nothing to do with the 350. I just think the 350 commitment was more imminent seeing as Boeing cannot deliver 777Xs. So in effect. Just rather take the 777Xs later, take the 787-9s (these are lower risk and versatile and much cheaper).

This whole thing is weird

I think you may be correct. QR did over-order. They needed a way out.

If they did over-order, why all this drama? Just go to Airbus, tell them you have bitten more than you can chew and find a solution - together.

N14AZ wrote:

So will QR sooner or later phase out their current A 350‘s?

Sorry if this question has been asked before but I couldn’t find it.

Well, if you believe the Qatari version of the story the QCAA will gradually remove the remainder of the A350's from service and ground them for safety reasons. Then the aircraft likely will rot away in the desert unless some miracle happens.

The miracle likely being Airbus to buy all these planes back on top of paying a hefty compensation.

On a side note, what has happened to miracle man Al Bakr aka Mr. U-turn? It has been remarkably quiet around him recently

Has AAB considered approaching Tupolev, Ilyushin, or Sukhoi for his aircraft needs?

marcelh wrote:

If they did over-order, why all this drama? Just go to Airbus, tell them you have bitten more than you can chew and find a solution - together.

You're suggesting that U-Turn-Al should eat a helping of humble pie. U-Turn-Al has far too bigger ego for the consumption of humble pie to even be a possibility! Better to save face by finding a reason to blame someone else.

flee wrote:

MileHFL400 wrote:

Err the A35K is far from being an in demand aircraft.

That was probably why Airbus cancelled the remaining orders rather than build the QR spec A35Ks only for them to refuse delivery. Cancelling the order means freeing up production slots that will enable them to make models that are in demand.

AB is simply broadcasting a message to potential copycats where the line is drawn between constructive problem-solving and tolerating goofing around. What's the point of having FU orderbook when you never say FU?

zkojq wrote:

marcelh wrote:

If they did over-order, why all this drama? Just go to Airbus, tell them you have bitten more than you can chew and find a solution - together.

You're suggesting that U-Turn-Al should eat a helping of humble pie. U-Turn-Al has far too bigger ego for the consumption of humble pie to even be a possibility! Better to save face by finding a reason to blame someone else.

I don't think this has anything to do with over ordering. almost all of QR's fleet is active and they even returned the A380 and the A330s to fill in capacity.

AAB was just trying to make money out of Airbus and pay nearly nothing for the aircraft he is purchasing and abusing his relationship with airbus to maybe sit on more cash for QR....he probably got away with many things over the years and cost airbus a lot...but this time what he was demanding costed airbus a true loss to their books so they did what they do, cut the loss out.

scbriml wrote:

While I doubt that anyone here has all the information, it would certainly appear that Airbus has decided that having QR as a customer simply isn't worth it.

... and to be fair, it would appear the inverse is true as well.

gensys wrote:

scbriml wrote:

While I doubt that anyone here has all the information, it would certainly appear that Airbus has decided that having QR as a customer simply isn't worth it.

... and to be fair, it would appear the inverse is true as well.

Sure? Didn’t QR fight with their lawyers to keep the A 321neo‘s in Airbus‘ order book?

QR have a history of wanting to be at the head of the queue for whichever product from A or B that is perceived to be the "newest" or "bestest" game in town. Many consider the A321LR to fit the bill better than.the MAX 10. Hence the desire to see the A321LR contract honoured is perhaps no more than an illustration of this rather than an absolute preference, setting aside considerations of performance, etc. By the same measure, hard to see QR trying hard to save the A350 deal when the newer, shinier, 777X is just round the corner in its various guises.

I'm honestly surprised LH isn't interested. They were rumored to be looking for additional lift to the point they were considering 777Ws. Surely A350Ks would be a much easier integration.