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Opus99
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Update: China Airlines orders 787 for fleet replacement of A330

Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:45 pm

https://twitter.com/dominicgates/status ... WmQeOUmYuQ

Dominic gates tweeting that the 330CEO of China airlines are due for replacement and are finalising a deal.

Sources indicateThe 787 is currently the favoured
aircraft

Reuters also reported on this this morning

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-08-03/

‘China Airlines (2610.TW) told Reuters last week it is "actively" looking at options to renew a fleet of 22 Airbus A330 jets in a competition widely expected to pit the upgraded A330neo against Boeing's 787. read more

'DELICATE SITUATION'
While a deal with Taiwan's biggest carrier would be a boon to Boeing as it nears the resumption of 787 deliveries after manufacturing flaws, sources said it could risk upsetting authorities in China, a much larger market. read more

That means Boeing is seen as unlikely to use Pelosi's trip, which has not been formally authorised by the White House, to lobby actively for a 787 deal. "It's a really delicate situation these days," a person familiar with the process said’
Last edited by qf789 on Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Updated title for clarity
 
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scbriml
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:44 pm

Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:38 pm

scbriml wrote:
Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.

The Chinese are not happy with the US administration right now; so, who knows?
But it will be a political decision for sure.
 
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Polot
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:39 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.

The Chinese are not happy with the US administration right now; so, who knows?
But it will be a political decision for sure.

China Airlines is Taiwanese. You are thinking of Air China.
 
strfyr51
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:49 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.

The Chinese are not happy with the US administration right now; so, who knows?
But it will be a political decision for sure.

the Mainland Chinese really have nothing to say about what China Airlines does. What they might need to do? is remodel Air China after China Air!
 
AngMoh
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:34 pm

scbriml wrote:
Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.


Agreed: The 787 is a shoe-in for Taiwanese China Airlines while I can not see any 787 sold on the future to China.
 
Aceskywalker
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:38 pm

Why not go all-in on Airbus? Renew the A330CEOs with A330NEOs and purchase A350-1000s when the time comes to retire the 77Ws.
 
bimmerc
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:46 pm

CI 330s flies to Asian Pacific, Mainland, Japan,Korean. My view is, they don't need 787 range, they have heaps of 359 already. Considering it is difficult to recover to pre-covid level, it makes little sense to introduce another wide body. Top up 359 maybe a better ideas even the deal may not as sweet, but will benefit in long term.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:13 am

About time they replace them, the A330 fleet is antique. Flew them in J from TPE to SIN on a supposedly « new cabin » A330 which is similar to SQ’s old regional A330 seat….

Such a shame considering how great the A350/777 product is.
 
jbs2886
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:26 am

bimmerc wrote:
CI 330s flies to Asian Pacific, Mainland, Japan,Korean. My view is, they don't need 787 range, they have heaps of 359 already. Considering it is difficult to recover to pre-covid level, it makes little sense to introduce another wide body. Top up 359 maybe a better ideas even the deal may not as sweet, but will benefit in long term.


You do realize the 787 and A350 have comparable range? Either way, China Airlines is looking at the A33neo and 787....so they're adding a new type regardless. The 787-10 is a great regional airplane, contrary to your assertions.
 
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AirKevin
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:38 am

jbs2886 wrote:
bimmerc wrote:
CI 330s flies to Asian Pacific, Mainland, Japan,Korean. My view is, they don't need 787 range, they have heaps of 359 already. Considering it is difficult to recover to pre-covid level, it makes little sense to introduce another wide body. Top up 359 maybe a better ideas even the deal may not as sweet, but will benefit in long term.


You do realize the 787 and A350 have comparable range? Either way, China Airlines is looking at the A33neo and 787....so they're adding a new type regardless. The 787-10 is a great regional airplane, contrary to your assertions.

But they currently have A330s, so the A330NEO shouldn't be too much of a new type in the sense that I would think the current A330 pilots could transition to the A330NEO without too much, if any, training.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:29 am

AirKevin wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
bimmerc wrote:
CI 330s flies to Asian Pacific, Mainland, Japan,Korean. My view is, they don't need 787 range, they have heaps of 359 already. Considering it is difficult to recover to pre-covid level, it makes little sense to introduce another wide body. Top up 359 maybe a better ideas even the deal may not as sweet, but will benefit in long term.


You do realize the 787 and A350 have comparable range? Either way, China Airlines is looking at the A33neo and 787....so they're adding a new type regardless. The 787-10 is a great regional airplane, contrary to your assertions.

But they currently have A330s, so the A330NEO shouldn't be too much of a new type in the sense that I would think the current A330 pilots could transition to the A330NEO without too much, if any, training.


Plenty of A330 operators did not opt for the A330neo, shouldn't be much of a surprise.
 
marcelh
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:28 am

scbriml wrote:
Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.


This. I don’t buy the “delicate situation” mentioned in the first post. Taiwan needs the US and buying US planes can be used in their favor.
 
Opus99
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:29 am

Political or not. Would love to see the china airlines livery on a 787-10
 
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flee
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:14 am

AirKevin wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
bimmerc wrote:
CI 330s flies to Asian Pacific, Mainland, Japan,Korean. My view is, they don't need 787 range, they have heaps of 359 already. Considering it is difficult to recover to pre-covid level, it makes little sense to introduce another wide body. Top up 359 maybe a better ideas even the deal may not as sweet, but will benefit in long term.

You do realize the 787 and A350 have comparable range? Either way, China Airlines is looking at the A33neo and 787....so they're adding a new type regardless. The 787-10 is a great regional airplane, contrary to your assertions.

But they currently have A330s, so the A330NEO shouldn't be too much of a new type in the sense that I would think the current A330 pilots could transition to the A330NEO without too much, if any, training.

Well, CI are only considering the A330Neo and B787. While the A330Neo will probably cost less, especially if they take the regional version, the order now looks like it is going to Boeing. B787-10 with GE engines is a likely choice.

Politics is probably going to weigh in heavily. A good example would be Japan Airlines. For decades, they were largely an all Boeing airline and it is only recently that some orders went to Airbus.
 
swapcv
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:38 am

My guess is it will be a mixed affair, for A330 replacement I'd say go for 787-9's and 787-10's both, for 77W replacement a decade later, depending on your load factors, either go for A35K (commonality with A359) or 779 (Same Type rating as their future 787 fleet).
 
kriskim
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:02 am

I see this as an order for Airbus to lose, however in saying that I can see the A321NEO playing a big part in CI’s future especially for flying to Japan, Korea and SE Asia. They will probably replace a lot of current A330 flying. CI will probably order more down the line too, their geographic location is perfect for the type.

The switch from 737 to A321 was already a big win for Airbus and I can see them going for the A35K as the likely 77W replacement.
 
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scbriml
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:49 am

marcelh wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.


This. I don’t buy the “delicate situation” mentioned in the first post. Taiwan needs the US and buying US planes can be used in their favor.


Boeing are certainly not going to turn down an order from China Airlines for fear of upsetting mainland China. :shakehead:

The simple reality is, China is already "punishing" America by not taking deliveries or ordering new planes from Boeing, so they have little to lose by accepting an order from China Airlines.
 
MoonC
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:23 pm

marcelh wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.


This. I don’t buy the “delicate situation” mentioned in the first post. Taiwan needs the US and buying US planes can be used in their favor.


While not the flag carrier, politics did not stop Starlux from placing an all-Airbus fleet order, comprising of A321neos, A330-900neos, A350-900s and A350-1000s.
 
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Polot
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:33 pm

MoonC wrote:
marcelh wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.


This. I don’t buy the “delicate situation” mentioned in the first post. Taiwan needs the US and buying US planes can be used in their favor.


While not the flag carrier, politics did not stop Starlux from placing an all-Airbus fleet order, comprising of A321neos, A330-900neos, A350-900s and A350-1000s.

Starlux is a private carrier. China Airlines is state owned.
 
MoonC
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:44 pm

Polot wrote:
MoonC wrote:
marcelh wrote:

This. I don’t buy the “delicate situation” mentioned in the first post. Taiwan needs the US and buying US planes can be used in their favor.


While not the flag carrier, politics did not stop Starlux from placing an all-Airbus fleet order, comprising of A321neos, A330-900neos, A350-900s and A350-1000s.

Starlux is a private carrier. China Airlines is state owned.


Sure, but they could still have opted for Boeing, even if for nothing more than as a friendly gesture. An order is an order, regardless who owns you.
 
behramjee
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:45 pm

Unlike Eva Air and Starlux which are privately owned, China Airlines is govt owned hence politics / lobbying will definitely play a key role.

CI knows that they need to balance the relationship between Airbus and Boeing to a respectable degree but also take into account aircraft operating economics. The smart money does indeed favor the A339Neo which would also be much cheaper to procure versus B781s + faster slot delivery possibilities due to Air Asia X cancelations.

The main advantage of the B781 versus the A339Neo is its extra flying range capability enabling it to fly to YVR/SEA with a full payload to/from TPE which the A339Neo wont be able to do (especially departing from North America).
 
Opus99
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:48 pm

behramjee wrote:
Unlike Eva Air and Starlux which are privately owned, China Airlines is govt owned hence politics / lobbying will definitely play a key role.

CI knows that they need to balance the relationship between Airbus and Boeing to a respectable degree but also take into account aircraft operating economics. The smart money does indeed favor the A339Neo which would also be much cheaper to procure versus B781s + faster slot delivery possibilities due to Air Asia X cancelations.

The main advantage of the B781 versus the A339Neo is its extra flying range capability enabling it to fly to YVR/SEA with a full payload to/from TPE which the A339Neo wont be able to do (especially departing from North America).

I think the 339NEO can do that. But what favours the 781 is simply its superior economics.
 
MoonC
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:51 pm

Boeing can afford to lose a 787 order. It's not like they are in a hurry to sell more. They could let this one go to Airbus, but China Airlines could give Boeing a boost with the 777X program instead.
Win - Win - Win.
 
texl1649
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:00 pm

MoonC wrote:
Boeing can afford to lose a 787 order. It's not like they are in a hurry to sell more. They could let this one go to Airbus, but China Airlines could give Boeing a boost with the 777X program instead.
Win - Win - Win.


Boeing, nor Airbus, is not in the business of ‘letting one go.’ China is a huge customer, and a tie in to 77x, and max re-starting flying might be nice with any 787 order. The politics don’t really make sense this month though, imho. Our most recent high profile trade delegate to Taiwan probably put the kibosh on any big Chinese-Boeing announcement before December.

Also, I doubt they replace all the 330CEO’s 1:1. The newest models might be kept around until the sino-russian CR929 could replace some. Nominally, they were shooting for 2027 or so for EIS for that, though I would have to guess 2030-2035 is more realistic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929
 
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scbriml
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:10 pm

behramjee wrote:
The main advantage of the B781 versus the A339Neo is its extra flying range capability enabling it to fly to YVR/SEA with a full payload to/from TPE which the A339Neo wont be able to do (especially departing from North America).


I'd like to see your numbers for that comparison. The A339 has longer range (but less payload) than the 787-10.

Opus99 wrote:
I think the 339NEO can do that. But what favours the 781 is simply its superior economics.


It comes at the expense of a significantly higher purchase price though.

My personal feeling is that even if the A339 were marginally the better frame for China Airlines, the political wind will probably favour the 787. Please note, I'm certainly not saying "the only reason... blah, blah, blah" but it would be perfectly understandable if Taiwan saw more benefit in ordering from America at this time.
 
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Polot
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:10 pm

texl1649 wrote:
MoonC wrote:
Boeing can afford to lose a 787 order. It's not like they are in a hurry to sell more. They could let this one go to Airbus, but China Airlines could give Boeing a boost with the 777X program instead.
Win - Win - Win.


Boeing, nor Airbus, is not in the business of ‘letting one go.’ China is a huge customer, and a tie in to 77x, and max re-starting flying might be nice with any 787 order. The politics don’t really make sense this month though, imho. Our most recent high profile trade delegate to Taiwan probably put the kibosh on any big Chinese-Boeing announcement before December.

Again, China Airlines is Taiwan, not mainland China.
 
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Heavierthanair
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:14 pm

behramjee wrote:
The main advantage of the B781 versus the A339Neo is its extra flying range capability enabling it to fly to YVR/SEA with a full payload to/from TPE which the A339Neo wont be able to do (especially departing from North America).


That's news to me, do you have any proof on your statement? As far as I know the A339 has almost the range of the B789, the B781 being a simple stretch has a reduced range and thus less than the A339 :twocents:
 
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scbriml
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:16 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Boeing, nor Airbus, is not in the business of ‘letting one go.’


Given neither OEM is capable of supplying 100% of the market, they both have to choose which battles they're prepared to lose and which ones they really want to win. As Airbus has just this week demonstrated, they're quite prepared to "let one go".
 
Opus99
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:16 pm

scbriml wrote:
behramjee wrote:
The main advantage of the B781 versus the A339Neo is its extra flying range capability enabling it to fly to YVR/SEA with a full payload to/from TPE which the A339Neo wont be able to do (especially departing from North America).


I'd like to see your numbers for that comparison. The A339 has longer range (but less payload) than the 787-10.

Opus99 wrote:
I think the 339NEO can do that. But what favours the 781 is simply its superior economics.


It comes at the expense of a significantly higher purchase price though.

My personal feeling is that even if the A339 were marginally the better frame for China Airlines, the political wind will probably favour the 787. Please note, I'm certainly not saying "the only reason... blah, blah, blah" but it would be perfectly understandable if Taiwan saw more benefit in ordering from America at this time.

Yeah it does come at a higher purchase price to be fair.

I agree with your analysis that politics plays a major role here
 
marcelh
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:25 pm

scbriml wrote:
marcelh wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Politics will probably make this a decision in favour of the 787.


This. I don’t buy the “delicate situation” mentioned in the first post. Taiwan needs the US and buying US planes can be used in their favor.


Boeing are certainly not going to turn down an order from China Airlines for fear of upsetting mainland China. :shakehead:

The simple reality is, China is already "punishing" America by not taking deliveries or ordering new planes from Boeing, so they have little to lose by accepting an order from China Airlines.


IMO it is important for Taiwan to gain support for their “cause” in the US. Buying European instead of US built planes won’t help.
 
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scbriml
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:28 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I agree with your analysis that politics plays a major role here


That's realism over blind fanboyism. There will be other cases where the politics favours Airbus over Boeing (as we're seeing with mainland China currently).
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:43 pm

behramjee wrote:
Unlike Eva Air and Starlux which are privately owned, China Airlines is govt owned hence politics / lobbying will definitely play a key role.

CI knows that they need to balance the relationship between Airbus and Boeing to a respectable degree but also take into account aircraft operating economics. The smart money does indeed favor the A339Neo which would also be much cheaper to procure versus B781s + faster slot delivery possibilities due to Air Asia X cancelations.

The main advantage of the B781 versus the A339Neo is its extra flying range capability enabling it to fly to YVR/SEA with a full payload to/from TPE which the A339Neo wont be able to do (especially departing from North America).


The A339 (with 251T MTOW) should be more capable than the 78X as currently specified (7200nm vs 6400nm), meaning that potential YVR/SEA routes (5200nm or so) would be well within the A339's reach. For CI I don't think it would come down to capability.
 
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HIA350
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:46 pm

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
About time they replace them, the A330 fleet is antique. Flew them in J from TPE to SIN on a supposedly « new cabin » A330 which is similar to SQ’s old regional A330 seat….

Such a shame considering how great the A350/777 product is.

politics
 
behramjee
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:52 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
behramjee wrote:
Unlike Eva Air and Starlux which are privately owned, China Airlines is govt owned hence politics / lobbying will definitely play a key role.

CI knows that they need to balance the relationship between Airbus and Boeing to a respectable degree but also take into account aircraft operating economics. The smart money does indeed favor the A339Neo which would also be much cheaper to procure versus B781s + faster slot delivery possibilities due to Air Asia X cancelations.

The main advantage of the B781 versus the A339Neo is its extra flying range capability enabling it to fly to YVR/SEA with a full payload to/from TPE which the A339Neo wont be able to do (especially departing from North America).


The A339 (with 251T MTOW) should be more capable than the 78X as currently specified (7200nm vs 6400nm), meaning that potential YVR/SEA routes (5200nm or so) would be well within the A339's reach. For CI I don't think it would come down to capability.


Please note that YVR/SEA-TPE block time in winter is 12:30-13:00 and in this season especially departing from North America, the A339Neo would not be able to operate this sector with a full payload. In summer season the block time is 45 minutes shorter.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:05 pm

behramjee wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
behramjee wrote:
Unlike Eva Air and Starlux which are privately owned, China Airlines is govt owned hence politics / lobbying will definitely play a key role.

CI knows that they need to balance the relationship between Airbus and Boeing to a respectable degree but also take into account aircraft operating economics. The smart money does indeed favor the A339Neo which would also be much cheaper to procure versus B781s + faster slot delivery possibilities due to Air Asia X cancelations.

The main advantage of the B781 versus the A339Neo is its extra flying range capability enabling it to fly to YVR/SEA with a full payload to/from TPE which the A339Neo wont be able to do (especially departing from North America).


The A339 (with 251T MTOW) should be more capable than the 78X as currently specified (7200nm vs 6400nm), meaning that potential YVR/SEA routes (5200nm or so) would be well within the A339's reach. For CI I don't think it would come down to capability.


Please note that YVR/SEA-TPE block time in winter is 12:30-13:00 and in this season especially departing from North America, the A339Neo would not be able to operate this sector with a full payload. In summer season the block time is 45 minutes shorter.


Maybe not at full load, but the claim I was responding to was that the 78X has more range. A339's cruising speed is 464 or 475kts, giving either 6032 or 6175nm still air range for your 13hr block time. 1000nm of capability instead being used for payload seems to be a reasonable amount of lifting potential.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:39 pm

Both the A350 and 787 series have significantly higher cruise speeds than the A330 series which shave off 30 minutes here and 1 hour there depending on flight length. If the aircraft are only flying regionally this matters less.
 
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ER757
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:47 pm

It could come down to timing - how soon do they want to start the replacement process? With the 787 deliveries delayed so long and a backlog to clear, I'd think they could get 330NEO's faster. If they are not in a particular hurry, then 787's might be the way to go
 
trex8
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:09 pm

swapcv wrote:
My guess is it will be a mixed affair, for A330 replacement I'd say go for 787-9's and 787-10's both, for 77W replacement a decade later, depending on your load factors, either go for A35K (commonality with A359) or 779 (Same Type rating as their future 787 fleet).

CI are not going to operate a combined 787/777 flight crew, they didnt even for A340/330.
 
trex8
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Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:15 pm

marcelh wrote:
scbriml wrote:
marcelh wrote:

This. I don’t buy the “delicate situation” mentioned in the first post. Taiwan needs the US and buying US planes can be used in their favor.


Boeing are certainly not going to turn down an order from China Airlines for fear of upsetting mainland China. :shakehead:

The simple reality is, China is already "punishing" America by not taking deliveries or ordering new planes from Boeing, so they have little to lose by accepting an order from China Airlines.


IMO it is important for Taiwan to gain support for their “cause” in the US. Buying European instead of US built planes won’t help.

US will help ROC regardless what CI buys. There were Tawan press reports Sen Graham from SC was canvassing the ROC government on his trip to Taipei few months ago for a 787 order (only 787 FAL is in his home state) but that was denied by ROC officials. CI is only about quarter owned by the ROC government now, there is only so much influence unlike say the 90s when the majority of shares was government owned and ROC CAA purchased 744, MD11 and leased them to CI.

CI could still go with Airbus on this, given they have operated up to 30 A330/340 for over a quarter century. They could add more 777Fs (or order 777XFs if they can wait longer- which they may not as those 744Fs will not be able to be kept on the ROC register after the mid decade) to the 10 delivered/on order and that still leaves at least another 8 744Fs to replace, assuming they dont even increase their freighter fleet, which they said will reach 24 after the original order for 6 777Fs started deliveries. Then there are the 77Ws to replace.

EU is leaning more to ROC recently than previously. Paris has agreed recently to upgrade the Mica missiles on the ROCAF Mirage 2000s. They need Meteors and new radars for these planes to take out the PLAAF even before they are feet wet off Fujian coast. They have also agreed to combat systems upgrade to the Lafayette frigates to allow local TC2 SAMs to be used.
US will be selling them AIM120Ds for the F16s eventually, to provide same capability not if but when.
Last edited by trex8 on Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1636
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:20 pm

texl1649 wrote:
MoonC wrote:
Boeing can afford to lose a 787 order. It's not like they are in a hurry to sell more. They could let this one go to Airbus, but China Airlines could give Boeing a boost with the 777X program instead.
Win - Win - Win.


Boeing, nor Airbus, is not in the business of ‘letting one go.’ China is a huge customer, and a tie in to 77x, and max re-starting flying might be nice with any 787 order. The politics don’t really make sense this month though, imho. Our most recent high profile trade delegate to Taiwan probably put the kibosh on any big Chinese-Boeing announcement before December.

Also, I doubt they replace all the 330CEO’s 1:1. The newest models might be kept around until the sino-russian CR929 could replace some. Nominally, they were shooting for 2027 or so for EIS for that, though I would have to guess 2030-2035 is more realistic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929

It is not likely that the CR929 will be considered seeing how much the People's Republic of China (communist China) is bullying Taiwan in the past few years.

China Airlines is the flag carrier of Taiwan (Republic of China). The flag carrier of communist China is Air China.
 
BHRN
Posts: 51
Joined: Fri May 08, 2020 11:16 am

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:35 pm

Opus99 wrote:
That means Boeing is seen as unlikely to use Pelosi's trip, which has not been formally authorised by the White House, to lobby actively for a 787 deal. "It's a really delicate situation these days," a person familiar with the process said’


If speaker Pelosi's trip could make a difference...

UK MPs are mulling to send a delegation to Taiwan by the end of this year. Then who knows if EU would follow suit...
 
jbs2886
Posts: 4346
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:44 pm

MoonC wrote:
Polot wrote:
MoonC wrote:

While not the flag carrier, politics did not stop Starlux from placing an all-Airbus fleet order, comprising of A321neos, A330-900neos, A350-900s and A350-1000s.

Starlux is a private carrier. China Airlines is state owned.


Sure, but they could still have opted for Boeing, even if for nothing more than as a friendly gesture. An order is an order, regardless who owns you.


Private, for-profit airlines don't order planes as "friendly gesture[s]."
 
Delaxio
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:21 pm

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:47 pm

texl1649 wrote:
MoonC wrote:
Boeing can afford to lose a 787 order. It's not like they are in a hurry to sell more. They could let this one go to Airbus, but China Airlines could give Boeing a boost with the 777X program instead.
Win - Win - Win.


Boeing, nor Airbus, is not in the business of ‘letting one go.’ China is a huge customer, and a tie in to 77x, and max re-starting flying might be nice with any 787 order. The politics don’t really make sense this month though, imho. Our most recent high profile trade delegate to Taiwan probably put the kibosh on any big Chinese-Boeing announcement before December.

Also, I doubt they replace all the 330CEO’s 1:1. The newest models might be kept around until the sino-russian CR929 could replace some. Nominally, they were shooting for 2027 or so for EIS for that, though I would have to guess 2030-2035 is more realistic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929


I doubt a Taiwanese carrier would buy airliners from mainland China, at any point of time.
 
ILikeTrains
Posts: 163
Joined: Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:18 am

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:16 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
behramjee wrote:
Unlike Eva Air and Starlux which are privately owned, China Airlines is govt owned hence politics / lobbying will definitely play a key role.

CI knows that they need to balance the relationship between Airbus and Boeing to a respectable degree but also take into account aircraft operating economics. The smart money does indeed favor the A339Neo which would also be much cheaper to procure versus B781s + faster slot delivery possibilities due to Air Asia X cancelations.

The main advantage of the B781 versus the A339Neo is its extra flying range capability enabling it to fly to YVR/SEA with a full payload to/from TPE which the A339Neo wont be able to do (especially departing from North America).


The A339 (with 251T MTOW) should be more capable than the 78X as currently specified (7200nm vs 6400nm), meaning that potential YVR/SEA routes (5200nm or so) would be well within the A339's reach. For CI I don't think it would come down to capability.


At about 5500nm, the 78X carries ~1-2T more payload than a 251T A339, based on the competing payload-range charts on respective ACAPS. Winds are a different story, but the 78X cruises faster as well. At shorter ranges (<4000nm) the 78X carries ~12T more payload.

This is all not considering the imminent gross weight increase coming to the 787 lineup.

Personally, I think the A339 would be fine for CI. Its a familiar aircraft for them, the major difference on the Neo is moving from GE to RR for engines, but they already use Trents on their A350s. The 787 would be a step up in capability, however.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 17398
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:19 pm

behramjee wrote:
Please note that YVR/SEA-TPE block time in winter is 12:30-13:00 and in this season especially departing from North America, the A339Neo would not be able to operate this sector with a full payload. In summer season the block time is 45 minutes shorter.


All this talk of long sectors is nonsense. The A330 is very popular in Asia because they are used within Asia to fly cargo between major cities. Taiwan is an island, wide bodies like the A330 are used for their cargo holds, passengers are somewhat secondary. The speed difference is really nonsense as well in regional role, ATC and airport delays just suck that away, they would have block time in their schedule that would allow them to sub in an A320 series for an A330, or 777. That is already happening today.

There was a time where they would operate them medium haul like to Australia, however that role has already be replaced by the A350.

If they were going to replace the A330 with something I would suggest it will be a low TOW aircraft (to reduce enroute and landing fees), that would give it range easily to go to India, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, Mainland China.

People are missing the mark here not understanding how they use the aircraft in their fleet.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 17398
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:30 pm

ILikeTrains wrote:

At about 5500nm, the 78X carries ~1-2T more payload than a 251T A339, based on the competing payload-range charts on respective ACAPS. Winds are a different story, but the 78X cruises faster as well. At shorter ranges (<4000nm) the 78X carries ~12T more payload.


Personally I think this is hogwash, people who push this narrative seem to be the ones who use the knowingly false numbers of wiki for the A359 weights (empty weight of 142 tonnes). There is a poster from UA called Jayunited on here that has disclosed the UA 787-10 empty weight, their aircraft have higher OEW than our A359s.

Jayunited has also talked about how the UA 787-10 can basically only do AKL with pax only, no cargo, if they need to carry cargo they use the 777. DL does SYD with the A350-900.

I think they will have their own good idea of the A350 performance as they already operate them.

In any case this is irrelevant for the A330 replacement, they are looking for a regional wide body.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 13653
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:36 pm

zeke wrote:
ILikeTrains wrote:

At about 5500nm, the 78X carries ~1-2T more payload than a 251T A339, based on the competing payload-range charts on respective ACAPS. Winds are a different story, but the 78X cruises faster as well. At shorter ranges (<4000nm) the 78X carries ~12T more payload.


Personally I think this is hogwash, people who push this narrative seem to be the ones who use the knowingly false numbers of wiki for the A359 weights (empty weight of 142 tonnes). There is a poster from UA called Jayunited on here that has disclosed the UA 787-10 empty weight, their aircraft have higher OEW than our A359s.

Jayunited has also talked about how the UA 787-10 can basically only do AKL with pax only, no cargo, if they need to carry cargo they use the 777. DL does SYD with the A350-900.

I think they will have their own good idea of the A350 performance as they already operate them.

In any case this is irrelevant for the A330 replacement, they are looking for a regional wide body.

1) ILikeTrains was doing a comparison against the A339, not the A359.

2) SFO-AKL is about 500 nm longer than TPE-YVR/SEA, so you are kind of agreeing that the route is doable with the 78X if so desired (although I think they would just use one of their A359s).
 
usa330300
Posts: 76
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2009 2:29 pm

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:57 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/dominicgates/status/1554630037638262784?s=21&t=LsbS2wI7pU9YWmQeOUmYuQ

Dominic gates tweeting that the 330CEO of China airlines are due for replacement and are finalising a deal.

Sources indicateThe 787 is currently the favoured
aircraft

Reuters also reported on this this morning

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-08-03/

‘China Airlines (2610.TW) told Reuters last week it is "actively" looking at options to renew a fleet of 22 Airbus A330 jets in a competition widely expected to pit the upgraded A330neo against Boeing's 787. read more

'DELICATE SITUATION'
While a deal with Taiwan's biggest carrier would be a boon to Boeing as it nears the resumption of 787 deliveries after manufacturing flaws, sources said it could risk upsetting authorities in China, a much larger market. read more

That means Boeing is seen as unlikely to use Pelosi's trip, which has not been formally authorised by the White House, to lobby actively for a 787 deal. "It's a really delicate situation these days," a person familiar with the process said’


The WH does not have any role in authorizing trips of members of congress in the US.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 17398
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: China Airlines 330CEO Replacement - 330NEO vs 787

Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:58 pm

They are never going to be payload weight limited regionally, again another useless metric for people who don’t understand the role the A330 has in their fleet.

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