Avianca appears has discontinued several routes and suspended many routes during the months of September and October. Some of these routes were started in the past 2 years, while others have operated for awhile. AV is struggling to compete and facing lots of competition in both the domestic against Viva, Latam, Wingo and Ultra Air and against Mainly CM, AA in international markets. The switch to becoming a full ULCC, removal of catering and IFE and move towards eliminating business class has made their product uncompetitive in international markets.

Discontinued routes

BOG-CZU last flight was on July 31st
BOG-IPI route never launched, was announced for May/June start
SJO-JFK last flight was on July 11th
GUA-MIA last flight was on July 20th
SJO-MIA from August 29th
SJO-LAX from August 29th
SAP-MIA from August 14th

Routes not operating in September and October

BAQ-MIA Service suspended from August 30th to October 30th
CTG-MIA Service suspended from August 30th to October 30th
CTG-JFK Service suspended from August 14th to October 30th
CLO-MIA Service suspended from August 30th to October 30th
CLO-MCO Service suspended from August 15th to October 30th
CLO-JFK Service suspended from June 27th to October 30th
GUA-JFK Service suspended from August 30th to October 30th
GUA-IAD Service suspended from August 31st to October 31st
MDE-MCO Service suspended from August 30th to November 1st
MDE-MIA Service suspended from August 30th to October 30th
MDE-JFK Service suspended from August 30th to October 29th

Frequency reductions

CLO-MEX Reduce from 4w to 1w in September
MDE-MEX Reduce from 4w to 1w in September
SJO-LIM Reduce from 1x to 1w in Sep/Oct
SJO-UIO Reduce from 2w to 1w in Sep/Oct

The changes are directly from the GDS.

A lot of SJO reductions and cuts. Overall, SAL looks to potentially pick up some connecting traffic on AV.

SJO/GUA-MIA cut but no cut to MGA-MIA. Interesting.

usdcaguy wrote:

SJO/GUA-MIA cut but no cut to MGA-MIA. Interesting.

With the restrictions the Nicaraguan govt is putting on US carriers AV is the only nonstop link to MIA out of Managua. The cuts between Colombia and South Florida are more surprising.

One of the fallacies of the ULCC model is “if I lower prices, more people will fly”. I.e. predictable supply/demand curve. The assumption is that because this has played out true in rich/leading economic societies (Europe, North America), it will also be true in developing societies (Latin/South America in this case).

A big portion of AV’s customer base is going to travel anyway. By moving to ULCC, they significantly cut the revenue they earn from those captive customers who have to travel and they’re the only option (mostly short haul business / government).

The bet is that they’ll pick up enough new customers who can now magically afford to fly, to offset the loss from the repeat high value customers along with general cost savings.

As expected… that’s not exactly playing out as well as hoped, and is further harmed by a terrible flying experience causing repeat high value customers to look elsewhere.

Couple that together with a 180 seat A320 as your smallest plane … and a business model that basically needs at least 165 seats full … and suddenly they can’t compete in these thinner markets. (The A319’s are being retired)

I flew them 7 times in July with the longest being BOG-LAX. For an 8 hour flight, they gave a half-size bottle of water, bag of chips, and a disgusting sandwich. I couldn’t believe it. No soda. No option to buy something decent.

You can bet good money I avoid them to maximum extent possible as so many other high value travelers. Good luck finding repeated success targeting a population who’s disposable income can be irregular (VFR market) and only dominating on capacitive short haul markets drawing fares excluding taxes of $20/ea way.

With all this cost cutting at AV, they are doing the complete opposite of improving themselves. Offering reduced meals onboard for customers is like Ryanair flying across the Atlantic not offering any meals.

Many customers will choose to fly an a high quality airline that offers good service. You do have a portion of the market that often wants the cheapest flight possible (leisure/VFR passengers may not mind as long as they can fly cheap), but many people care about how well the onboard service is.

AV isn't going to go away overnight, but it won't be surprising to see people avoid the carrier.

Okcflyer wrote:

One of the fallacies of the ULCC model is “if I lower prices, more people will fly”. I.e. predictable supply/demand curve. The assumption is that because this has played out true in rich/leading economic societies (Europe, North America), it will also be true in developing societies (Latin/South America in this case).

A big portion of AV’s customer base is going to travel anyway. By moving to ULCC, they significantly cut the revenue they earn from those captive customers who have to travel and they’re the only option (mostly short haul business / government).

The bet is that they’ll pick up enough new customers who can now magically afford to fly, to offset the loss from the repeat high value customers along with general cost savings.

As expected… that’s not exactly playing out as well as hoped, and is further harmed by a terrible flying experience causing repeat high value customers to look elsewhere.

Couple that together with a 180 seat A320 as your smallest plane … and a business model that basically needs at least 165 seats full … and suddenly they can’t compete in these thinner markets. (The A319’s are being retired)

I flew them 7 times in July with the longest being BOG-LAX. For an 8 hour flight, they gave a half-size bottle of water, bag of chips, and a disgusting sandwich. I couldn’t believe it. No soda. No option to buy something decent.

You can bet good money I avoid them to maximum extent possible as so many other high value travelers. Good luck finding repeated success targeting a population who’s disposable income can be irregular (VFR market) and only dominating on capacitive short haul markets drawing fares excluding taxes of $20/ea way.

I think part of the problem is that they are not really cheaper. They offer a ULCC product but are usually the same or even more expensive than AA or CM. At least NK is cheap but chosing AA or CM over AV right now is a no-brainer since prices are similar.

The new Avianca = LOW VALUE. Not even an ULCC.
Incredible the lack of strategy with the new management team and possible new owners, No value proposition. Colombia market needs and supports a Legacy airline. Really sad what happen with Avianca. Every time I give a new opportunity flying with the new Avianca (para todos), I get even more disappointed, used to be a really fan of the airline.
In the Americas much better to travel in Copa, US legacies or Aeromexico.

To give credit where credit is due: Avianca's new slimline seats are quite nice. I find the "Plus" seats to be rathercomfortable and spacious -- more so than LH's which I recently flew. I think the European style first class cabin makes sense for many of their sectors and is executed welle nough. They did need to densify the cabin ....whether they needed to go as extreme in the back of the plane as they did (no recline, no headrest -- basically an urban train or bus seat) is questionable. The wings forward -- very well done.

It's everything else that is crap -- online/app expeiernce, check-in, on-board service -- including the BOG airport. It used to be pretty nice. It's amazing how run down and poorly-kept the place is now. I can't imagine UA has interest in a JV any longer and wouldn't be surprised to see them pull back on codeshares significantly. It's a giant liability to the UA brand in the region.

Regarding colombian reductions:

Although I agree with your opinions regarding AV's service reductions without really decreasing value of international tickets, which honestly sucks, these reductions are also because there is excessive ULCC capacity especially on Northern Latam-US routes. AA also cut several routes ex-JFK to Colombia, B6 has had reductions too and NK is pulling capacity from MIA-Colombia which has been a disaster. The thing is NK has dumped so many seats in the market that everyone is struggling to make a profit outside of the hubs. Routes like MDE/CLO-MIA getting suspended after being operated for decades with a solid captive market is testimony to that. It's sad, but AV's service reductions are a direct response from intense competition from ULCC's both domestically in Colombia and the US. Several friends of mine who work at the airline told me that there was so much ULCC capacity that there was just no space for "legacy" capacity outside of Colombia-Europe routes. And the strategy of the new investors is creating a pan-LATAM ULCC through the ABRA group (Avianca+Viva+GOL+Sky).

That, and the US dollar appreciating over 25% over the colombian peso in the past months is also killing tourism/VFR traffic.

AV is also re-focusing their capacity, as they've just applied to the colombian authorities to operate CTG-GRU/SCL and MDE-AUA. I also guess the new management just wants to follow the Ryanair strategy of just mercilessly cutting routess and adding others for as long as they can make money.

Regarding SJO's reductions, while I supported their growth plan in SJO at the moment it was announced, it did seem a little haphazard (just adding random capacity on routes which were unprofitable in the past or had a lot of competition from US carriers).

And I don't agree with @Okcflyer's comment that more people aren't flying in Latam. They are, a lot. The case of bus companies going bakrupt all around the region because of LCC competition has been widely talked about in this forum. The Colombian market has already recovered form pre-2020 levels, one of the first in the world. The thing is you can have a full plane, but with $20 dollar fares, there's no way to make a profit.

asuflyer wrote:

MDE-MCO Service suspended from August 30th to November 1st
MDE-MIA Service suspended from August 30th to October 30th
MDE-JFK Service suspended from August 30th to October 29th

Rat race to the bottom i see

I thought the new management, after the Efromovich(sp) ouster, had representation from United or was it Delta? Lat Am is definitely a non-homogeneous market, unlike Europe or USA, worthy of real study and in depth analysis.

stewartg wrote:

I thought the new management, after the Efromovich(sp) ouster, had representation from United or was it Delta? Lat Am is definitely a non-homogeneous market, unlike Europe or USA, worthy of real study and in depth analysis.

It was UA that had the 51% of his shares.

AV has quite frankly become a disaster.. Sad, because it was once a phenomenal airline.. As previously posted they are in trap, ULCC product but premium prices. I don't see why they couldn't have mirrored CM's approach, a good product with competitive fares and leave the bottom feeding fares to the ULLCs. Something must change or they will be filing for BK again.

DCA350 wrote:

AV has quite frankly become a disaster.. Sad, because it was once a phenomenal airline.. As previously posted they are in trap, ULCC product but premium prices. I don't see why they couldn't have mirrored CM's approach, a good product with competitive fares and leave the bottom feeding fares to the ULLCs. Something must change or they will be filing for BK again.

One reason they can't mirror CM is because their home base is an airport at high altitude. So it's hard to fly out of there with single-aisle aircraft to destinations CM can serve on the 737, such as LAX and SFO. Of course, one could argue that Colombia has the home market to fly it all on widebodies, but when the competing LCCs chip away on your market, then that becomes difficult to do.

Further frequency reductions and cuts in September-October posted here.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220807-avaug22intl

Another example of AV's failures is misunderstanding the markets where in which they serve. They just launched SJO-IAD. The return flight from IAD-SJO departs at 2:30am. I will be surprised if this flight makes it more than 6 months. This is primarily a leisure market not a VFR market like SAL, GUA or BOG. While departures times like these work for VFR destinations like SAL and GUA, they are bound for failure on more leisure focused routes like JFK-SJO, JFK-CTG which also had departure times at 2 and 4 am.

Operating GUA-SJO at 5 weekly and GUA-LAX at 5-weekly, among many others, is a sign that there something going on beyond route performance.

MalevTU134 wrote:

DCA350 wrote:

AV has quite frankly become a disaster.. Sad, because it was once a phenomenal airline.. As previously posted they are in trap, ULCC product but premium prices. I don't see why they couldn't have mirrored CM's approach, a good product with competitive fares and leave the bottom feeding fares to the ULLCs. Something must change or they will be filing for BK again.

One reason they can't mirror CM is because their home base is an airport at high altitude. So it's hard to fly out of there with single-aisle aircraft to destinations CM can serve on the 737, such as LAX and SFO. Of course, one could argue that Colombia has the home market to fly it all on widebodies, but when the competing LCCs chip away on your market, then that becomes difficult to do.

What about with a mostly A320neo fleet? That model can do hot and high as well as the A319...but can an A320neo reach LAX from BOG? (AV has been flying JFK-BOG on a mix of A319 and A320neo frames, but if the A319s are on their way out...that becomes an issue.)

Not that AV would have resources to acquire new planes, but would the A220-100/300 work for thin routes to JFK and MIA? Does the A220 have the takeoff power to perform at BOG? Asking for a friend.

AV is facing several challenges at the same time.
Yes, there are the ULCC dumping seats in major domestic and international markets, but one of the issues with Colombia and international travel is that flying from every major Colombian market which could support some level of U.S. non-stop service would put lots of strain to AV operations.
How could AV offer flights to MIA from BOG, MDE, CLO, BAQ, CTG, PEI, CUC and BGA plus to NYC/MCO from BOG, MDE, CLO, BAQ - at the same time? With tag-on flights from Venezuela, Ecuador and Perú, maybe GRU?
And on top of that, there's every major Central American market which had MIA non-stop from the TACA days and these days, unless it's MGA, everything goes via SAL.
If BOG can't even support BOS and ORD (off peak), DFW and SFO non-stops, why AV isn't expanding SAL hub? SAN/TIJ, SMF, PHX, LAS, DEN, AUS/SAT, MSY, MCO perhaps even TPA, STL, ATL might be able to support SAL flights if SAL again gets feed from CCS, GYE, CLO, MDE, BAQ, BOG, LIM, SDQ, PTY plus Central America (including BZE).

2travel2know2 wrote:

AV is facing several challenges at the same time.
Yes, there are the ULCC dumping seats in major domestic and international markets, but one of the issues with Colombia and international travel is that flying from every major Colombian market which could support some level of U.S. non-stop service would put lots of strain to AV operations.
How could AV offer flights to MIA from BOG, MDE, CLO, BAQ, CTG, PEI, CUC and BGA plus to NYC/MCO from BOG, MDE, CLO, BAQ - at the same time? With tag-on flights from Venezuela, Ecuador and Perú, maybe GRU?
And on top of that, there's every major Central American market which had MIA non-stop from the TACA days and these days, unless it's MGA, everything goes via SAL.
If BOG can't even support BOS and ORD (off peak), DFW and SFO non-stops, why AV isn't expanding SAL hub? SAN/TIJ, SMF, PHX, LAS, DEN, AUS/SAT, MSY, MCO perhaps even TPA, STL, ATL might be able to support SAL flights if SAL again gets feed from CCS, GYE, CLO, MDE, BAQ, BOG, LIM, SDQ, PTY plus Central America (including BZE).

SAL is 100% a VFR destination. The places AV flies from SAL coincide with the largest Salvadoran populations in the US. It doesnt have the business demand BOG does. If they are struggling with it from BOG, I dont see SAL as any sort of alternative.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

2travel2know2 wrote:

AV is facing several challenges at the same time.
Yes, there are the ULCC dumping seats in major domestic and international markets, but one of the issues with Colombia and international travel is that flying from every major Colombian market which could support some level of U.S. non-stop service would put lots of strain to AV operations.
How could AV offer flights to MIA from BOG, MDE, CLO, BAQ, CTG, PEI, CUC and BGA plus to NYC/MCO from BOG, MDE, CLO, BAQ - at the same time? With tag-on flights from Venezuela, Ecuador and Perú, maybe GRU?
And on top of that, there's every major Central American market which had MIA non-stop from the TACA days and these days, unless it's MGA, everything goes via SAL.
If BOG can't even support BOS and ORD (off peak), DFW and SFO non-stops, why AV isn't expanding SAL hub? SAN/TIJ, SMF, PHX, LAS, DEN, AUS/SAT, MSY, MCO perhaps even TPA, STL, ATL might be able to support SAL flights if SAL again gets feed from CCS, GYE, CLO, MDE, BAQ, BOG, LIM, SDQ, PTY plus Central America (including BZE).

SAL is 100% a VFR destination. The places AV flies from SAL coincide with the largest Salvadoran populations in the US. It doesnt have the business demand BOG does. If they are struggling with it from BOG, I don't see SAL as any sort of alternative.

Well, Once upon a time, TACA happened to build-up a hub in a VFR destination.

Has Copa Airlines ever impacted Avianca in any way? With the exception of the european market (which Copa Airlines doesn't serve), I wonder if the hub at PTY has taken away market share from Avianca at BOG.

3D101CA wrote:

Has Copa Airlines ever impacted Avianca in any way? With the exception of the european market (which Copa Airlines doesn't serve), I wonder if the hub at PTY has taken away market share from Avianca at BOG.

For sure, Colombia has long been Copa's #1 foreign market; they fly from PTY to every major Colombian city and they have a Colombian subsidiary with two brands in Copa Colombia and Wingo.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

DCA350 wrote:

AV has quite frankly become a disaster.. Sad, because it was once a phenomenal airline.. As previously posted they are in trap, ULCC product but premium prices. I don't see why they couldn't have mirrored CM's approach, a good product with competitive fares and leave the bottom feeding fares to the ULLCs. Something must change or they will be filing for BK again.

One reason they can't mirror CM is because their home base is an airport at high altitude. So it's hard to fly out of there with single-aisle aircraft to destinations CM can serve on the 737, such as LAX and SFO. Of course, one could argue that Colombia has the home market to fly it all on widebodies, but when the competing LCCs chip away on your market, then that becomes difficult to do.

What about with a mostly A320neo fleet? That model can do hot and high as well as the A319...but can an A320neo reach LAX from BOG? (AV has been flying JFK-BOG on a mix of A319 and A320neo frames, but if the A319s are on their way out...that becomes an issue.)

They can operate them with the 32N but they'd STILL be severely weight restricted

3D101CA wrote:

Has Copa Airlines ever impacted Avianca in any way? With the exception of the european market (which Copa Airlines doesn't serve), I wonder if the hub at PTY has taken away market share from Avianca at BOG.

I would say so, given that PTY is near sea level and BOG is over 8300 feet AMSL. CM is basically the FI of the Americas land mass. Its limiting factor is how many planes it has (CM currently has about 80 planes). AV needs wide-bodies where CM can fly narrow-bodies. If CM had transitoned to the A320neo platform, that could really have done in AV (especially with the A321LR, which could reach YVR and RGL from PTY unrestricted (RGL is beyond the range of the 737 MAX), but even the MAX 9 could conceivably reach YVR from PTY with a slight weight restriction outbound (blocking the last row).

3D101CA wrote:

Has Copa Airlines ever impacted Avianca in any way? With the exception of the european market (which Copa Airlines doesn't serve), I wonder if the hub at PTY has taken away market share from Avianca at BOG.

Definitely but it doesn't mean AV shouldn't more than be able to hold its own.. It has a much larger home-base to pull from. With competitive prices and product AV could have thrived.. I for one preferred flying AV over AA and I know many others that felt the same.. But they chose a race to the bottom in a space that has a lot ULCC competition with lower cost.. It's going to be tough sledding..

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220808-avsep22co

More frequency reductions domestically within Colombia for Sep/Oct.

Avianca is doomed.

After Van Der Werff's disastrous and poor management, Avianca has absolutely been making bad business decisions.

RAGAZZO777 wrote:

Avianca is doomed.

After Van Der Werff's disastrous and poor management, Avianca has absolutely been making bad business decisions.

I agree. I guess Anko van der Werff is up there with James Hogan. He's at SAS now, filing for Chapter 11 within months of taking over, after a two-week pilot strike. I don't see how SAS will survive van der Werff's mismanagement.

MalevTU134 wrote:

RAGAZZO777 wrote:

Avianca is doomed.

After Van Der Werff's disastrous and poor management, Avianca has absolutely been making bad business decisions.

I agree. I guess Anko van der Werff is up there with James Hogan. He's at SAS now, filing for Chapter 11 within months of taking over, after a two-week pilot strike. I don't see how SAS will survive van der Werff's mismanagement.

With so many good airline managers and lieutenants available in the world, did they not have a better choice? or was it the banks that decided?

As a central american, I really miss the Taca days. Great service, dynamic and innovative management, and profitable operation. I wonder where it would be today had it remained independent from the disaster Avianca has become, although their current president is ex-Taca, I believe..

stewartg wrote:

With so many good airline managers and lieutenants available in the world, did they not have a better choice? or was it the banks that decided?

No idea. If and ONLY if Avianca survives, it will be because of the Colombian state/government.

RAGAZZO777 wrote:

Avianca is doomed.

After Van Der Werff's disastrous and poor management, Avianca has absolutely been making bad business decisions.

What did Anko do that was so terrible? He saw a bloated, inefficient airline and tried to address it. COVID ripped them over into bankruptcy and this stupid ULCC plan has come after he departed.

Someone mentioned that AV was retiring their A319's. I follow an AV pilot on instagram and posted some photos of the final A321 that he flew before being returned to the lessor. Someone asked him if the A319s would suffer the same fate, and he said no. There are no plans to retire them at the moment and will be receiving the cabin refresh also.

From his response, I can speculate that A319s will go from 120 seats they carry now to perhaps the 150s.

https://www.instagram.com/p/ChKezt-Or5X ... _copy_link

many321 wrote:

Someone mentioned that AV was retiring their A319's. I follow an AV pilot on instagram and posted some photos of the final A321 that he flew before being returned to the lessor. Someone asked him if the A319s would suffer the same fate, and he said no. There are no plans to retire them at the moment and will be receiving the cabin refresh also.

From his response, I can speculate that A319s will go from 120 seats they carry now to perhaps the 150s.

https://www.instagram.com/p/ChKezt-Or5X ... _copy_link

IIRC, max capacity for the single overwing exit A319 is 144.

usflyer msp wrote:

many321 wrote:

Someone mentioned that AV was retiring their A319's. I follow an AV pilot on instagram and posted some photos of the final A321 that he flew before being returned to the lessor. Someone asked him if the A319s would suffer the same fate, and he said no. There are no plans to retire them at the moment and will be receiving the cabin refresh also.

From his response, I can speculate that A319s will go from 120 seats they carry now to perhaps the 150s.

https://www.instagram.com/p/ChKezt-Or5X ... _copy_link

IIRC, max capacity for the single overwing exit A319 is 144.

You right. Humble mistake. AV might be going with these A319s with a similar set up with Y4s A319s of 144 though seeing they have those odd Recaro Premium two seats with the first three rows, they might be 138 to 140.