Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
rjsampson
Topic Author
Posts: 583
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:00 am

Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:02 pm

Without a doubt this has been covered, but I can't find it while searching.

What exactly is the appeal for the 737-MAX 10? It has the lowest range of the family, while only carrying ~10 more pax than the -9.

It's doesn't seem to be a competitor to the A321 NEO (range), and is certainly not a 757 replacement.

Still, it has acquired a substantial book of orders.

Where does this fit into an airline's fleet?
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 3121
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:36 pm

For 737NG or MAX operators it's a useful upgrade in capacity with improved seat costs vs smaller 737s. Though a fair chunk of operators have gone to the A321neo (even some fairly high profile 737 operators), there are still some that haven't or have the MAX as well. I see it as more appealing for full-service/legacy carriers than LCCs, as the MAX 8-200 is better-suited. You'll see some LCCs order it as their competitors likely have A321neos, but with longer boarding times it eats into the utilisation that LCCs typically go for. Still some high density and short haul routes that the MAX fulfills well,

In the future, it will give Boeing something to offer, for many years now it's been one-way traffic for the neo.
 
Noshow
Posts: 3389
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:45 pm

It's the next best MAX thing to compete with the sold out for years A321neo. And it's cheap for high demand routes that don't require a full range. The long fuselage is helpful to install some business class up front while not losing too many total seats. I consider it to be one of the more promising MAX versions, with the 8 and 8 200 being the most promising models from my perspective. Now the -10 needs that next EICAS extension for 2023. Without it the entire program might be in hot water.
 
questions
Posts: 2409
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:16 pm

What is the difference between the MAX-8 and MAX-8-200?
 
nickya340
Posts: 65
Joined: Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:59 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:27 pm

questions wrote:
What is the difference between the MAX-8 and MAX-8-200?


The 8-200 has an extra pair of emergency exits with a higher exit limit while still using the max8 fuselage size
 
questions
Posts: 2409
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:36 pm

nickya340 wrote:
questions wrote:
What is the difference between the MAX-8 and MAX-8-200?


The 8-200 has an extra pair of emergency exits with a higher exit limit while still using the max8 fuselage size


Thanks.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 24176
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:44 pm

1. 3,300nm range is outstanding. Not A321xLR range, but sufficient to upgauge a 738 to a MAX 10 to Hawaii and even add a small number of additional routes.

2. cheap additional floor space with good door spacing. UA is putting in 22 lie flat seats in fifty MAX 10. That is more than AA or B6. in an A321:
If an airline equips the MAX 10 with three slim-line lavatories in the back (of which two could form a PRM lav.), the difference in available cabin length to house seat rows would be almost nil.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/03/13/boein ... 0a%20limit.

https://pointmetotheplane.boardingarea. ... igurations.


3. The Takeoff distance is 2500m (same as MAX 8) for that 3,300nm (3550nm for MAX 8) range and 1700m landing at MLW, good numbers. Not as good as the base A321s 1988m, but good enough. Does it matter vs. the MAX 9's 2600m, I believe it does.
https://aerocorner.com/aircraft/boeing-737-max-10/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A320neo_family

So for UA, a presumably lower purchase price, comparable opperating economics, earlier delivery, and the ability to carry more premium seats. The plane can fly TCON, west coast to Hawaii (but not from the important DEN hub). I suspect this is why DL already ordered the plane.

I've only seen Wizz air carrying more passengers on the A321 than the MAX capacity.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wizz_Air

Unless an airline needs A321xLR range, the MAX 10 allows Boeing to compete for every tender. The added 1.63m over the -9 isn't much, but the MAX -10 has 852 orders to the MAX 9's mere 258.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX

Considering how sophisticated airlines are in buying aircraft, I look for what enables success instead of questioning it: floor space, cost of stretch, and operational economics.

I fully expect over two thousand MAX 10 sales, eventually.

Lightsaber
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11261
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:52 pm

rjsampson wrote:
and is certainly not a 757 replacement.


There's your presumption that carriers use all 757s for range. That is your error. See all the 757s that DL runs ATL-Florida, for example. You also presume that carriers are ordering 321neos in max range config - and they aren't, not uniformly. DL claims a range of 3,370 sm for its 321neos.

Alternately, look at the fraction of North American frequencies (by DL or UA) that are within the range of a MAX10 with reserves. It's very big - certainly bigger than the fraction of MAX10s on order for their mainline fleets.
 
Avatar2go
Posts: 971
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:41 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:59 pm

A good example of the airline economic modelling and decision-making being far more complex than simply comparing surface specs. The financial return is the key parameter, and airlines can get that with the MAX-10 over the vast majority of the routes for which it's suited.
 
GSPSPOT
Posts: 2716
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:44 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Fri Aug 05, 2022 11:38 pm

Short answer: Boeing's only current offering to somewhat fill the role of the badly missed (by passengers at least) 757. My opinion, of course.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1239
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:01 am

Another issue here is that people get variants mixed up . . From Leeham,

Extending the range of A321neo

"A standard A321, whether it is ceo (current engine option), or neo (new engine option), is limited in range at just about any cabin and passenger combination by its internal fuel capacity (all in the wings). If we use the OEM “show room” or brochure cabin configuration of 185 seats divided over 16 premium seats (short haul first class recliners at 36 inch pitch) and 169 economy seats (standard economy at 32 inch pitch) and the highest standard weight variant at 93.5t, then A321neo would have a range of 3000nm. A321neo press releases and presentations says 3600nm but there is a caveat in there which is called extra tanks." ( https://leehamnews.com/2015/01/15/airbu ... ats-there/ )

So a standard A321neo is a bit less than the 737 MAX10. An A321neo can beat the 737 MAX10 - with extra tanks - but then the trip cost goes up. And since the 737 MAX10 can match the A321neo (at least for US3 configurations) that trip cost benefit directly translates to CASM benefit.

So UA and most particularly DL line up for large orders, despite the certification uncertainty.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 24176
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:10 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
rjsampson wrote:
and is certainly not a 757 replacement.


There's your presumption that carriers use all 757s for range. That is your error. See all the 757s that DL runs ATL-Florida, for example. You also presume that carriers are ordering 321neos in max range config - and they aren't, not uniformly. DL claims a range of 3,370 sm for its 321neos.

Alternately, look at the fraction of North American frequencies (by DL or UA) that are within the range of a MAX10 with reserves. It's very big - certainly bigger than the fraction of MAX10s on order for their mainline fleets.

It will certainly be an excellent 757 replacement for:
1. Premium routes within range and shortfield capability.
2. Short range trunk routes (e.g. any US hub to MCO)
3. Any route that needs cargo past the A321NEOs range without ACT. Please recall the A321NEO earns that range with two cargo volume sucking up ACTs.

Now is it going to replace a 752 out of SNA? No. Nor will the A321. Downgauge a tiny amount and do not worry (say to a MAX 8).

Will it fly TATL? No. I hope for a -9ER for that role. But only a few European charters and US airlines used that range. As the A321xLR is a better aircraft for those routes, a market is conceeded (although I personally believe a -9 with -10 gear and MTOW would be competitive).

The challenge for the -10 is certification. Sales are happening.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
FiscAutTecGarte
Posts: 829
Joined: Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 12:28 am

The MAX 10 appears to correct a few of the deficiencies of the 900/900ER/MAX9 to allow Boeing to challenge the A321 space where ultimate range (ER/XLR) isn't needed. It's a shame it wasn't the plane offered as the MAX9 from the very beginning. That's hindsight now. I'm sure allot of folks that made that decision are gone now.

The MAX 10 appears to just be enough of an improvement on the 900/900ER/MAX9 to matter..... where it's gained more sales before it's certification than all 3 models combined gained during their entire life.... Of course it appears to fall short in many important metrics against the A321... but at the moment, it does have some advantages in procurement costs, efficiency below 1000miles, availability,

Worth repeating, it appears to be a very good, safe, efficient transport solution that is going to make airlines money. It's a great incremental step from a MAX 8.
 
EssentialBusDC
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:06 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:06 am

jagraham wrote:
Another issue here is that people get variants mixed up . . From Leeham,

Extending the range of A321neo

"A standard A321, whether it is ceo (current engine option), or neo (new engine option), is limited in range at just about any cabin and passenger combination by its internal fuel capacity (all in the wings). If we use the OEM “show room” or brochure cabin configuration of 185 seats divided over 16 premium seats (short haul first class recliners at 36 inch pitch) and 169 economy seats (standard economy at 32 inch pitch) and the highest standard weight variant at 93.5t, then A321neo would have a range of 3000nm. A321neo press releases and presentations says 3600nm but there is a caveat in there which is called extra tanks." ( https://leehamnews.com/2015/01/15/airbu ... ats-there/ )

So a standard A321neo is a bit less than the 737 MAX10. An A321neo can beat the 737 MAX10 - with extra tanks - but then the trip cost goes up. And since the 737 MAX10 can match the A321neo (at least for US3 configurations) that trip cost benefit directly translates to CASM benefit.

So UA and most particularly DL line up for large orders, despite the certification uncertainty.


Per Boeing, the Max10 range of 3300nm is with one aux tank. So does it really beat a 321 when configured similarly?

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/
 
EssentialBusDC
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:06 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:17 am

lightsaber wrote:
1. 3,300nm range is outstanding. Not A321xLR range, but sufficient to upgauge a 738 to a MAX 10 to Hawaii and even add a small number of additional routes.

2. cheap additional floor space with good door spacing. UA is putting in 22 lie flat seats in fifty MAX 10. That is more than AA or B6. in an A321:
If an airline equips the MAX 10 with three slim-line lavatories in the back (of which two could form a PRM lav.), the difference in available cabin length to house seat rows would be almost nil.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/03/13/boein ... 0a%20limit.

https://pointmetotheplane.boardingarea. ... igurations.


3. The Takeoff distance is 2500m (same as MAX 8) for that 3,300nm (3550nm for MAX 8) range and 1700m landing at MLW, good numbers. Not as good as the base A321s 1988m, but good enough. Does it matter vs. the MAX 9's 2600m, I believe it does.
https://aerocorner.com/aircraft/boeing-737-max-10/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A320neo_family

So for UA, a presumably lower purchase price, comparable opperating economics, earlier delivery, and the ability to carry more premium seats. The plane can fly TCON, west coast to Hawaii (but not from the important DEN hub). I suspect this is why DL already ordered the plane.

I've only seen Wizz air carrying more passengers on the A321 than the MAX capacity.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wizz_Air

Unless an airline needs A321xLR range, the MAX 10 allows Boeing to compete for every tender. The added 1.63m over the -9 isn't much, but the MAX -10 has 852 orders to the MAX 9's mere 258.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX

Considering how sophisticated airlines are in buying aircraft, I look for what enables success instead of questioning it: floor space, cost of stretch, and operational economics.

I fully expect over two thousand MAX 10 sales, eventually.

Lightsaber


Regarding point 2.

Not sure putting lie flat on the 737-10 is still the plan for United though. Those articles were before UAL ordered the additional 70 321 NEO’s. (Non XLR versions) so things may have changed.
 
dfwking
Posts: 121
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:23 am

It mainly works for carriers who already operate the 737 and wouldn’t need to create a whole separate pilot group. They would likely need to with a new fleet type like the A321neo.

The other reason it works is probably because it’s cheaper than the neo and the neo is sold out until the end of the decade.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 4217
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:10 am

EssentialBusDC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
1. 3,300nm range is outstanding. Not A321xLR range, but sufficient to upgauge a 738 to a MAX 10 to Hawaii and even add a small number of additional routes.

2. cheap additional floor space with good door spacing. UA is putting in 22 lie flat seats in fifty MAX 10. That is more than AA or B6. in an A321:
If an airline equips the MAX 10 with three slim-line lavatories in the back (of which two could form a PRM lav.), the difference in available cabin length to house seat rows would be almost nil.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/03/13/boein ... 0a%20limit.

https://pointmetotheplane.boardingarea. ... igurations.


3. The Takeoff distance is 2500m (same as MAX 8) for that 3,300nm (3550nm for MAX 8) range and 1700m landing at MLW, good numbers. Not as good as the base A321s 1988m, but good enough. Does it matter vs. the MAX 9's 2600m, I believe it does.
https://aerocorner.com/aircraft/boeing-737-max-10/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A320neo_family

So for UA, a presumably lower purchase price, comparable opperating economics, earlier delivery, and the ability to carry more premium seats. The plane can fly TCON, west coast to Hawaii (but not from the important DEN hub). I suspect this is why DL already ordered the plane.

I've only seen Wizz air carrying more passengers on the A321 than the MAX capacity.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wizz_Air

Unless an airline needs A321xLR range, the MAX 10 allows Boeing to compete for every tender. The added 1.63m over the -9 isn't much, but the MAX -10 has 852 orders to the MAX 9's mere 258.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX

Considering how sophisticated airlines are in buying aircraft, I look for what enables success instead of questioning it: floor space, cost of stretch, and operational economics.

I fully expect over two thousand MAX 10 sales, eventually.

Lightsaber


Regarding point 2.

Not sure putting lie flat on the 737-10 is still the plan for United though. Those articles were before UAL ordered the additional 70 321 NEO’s. (Non XLR versions) so things may have changed.


Oh because lie flats obviously belong in the neo and not the MAX.
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 925
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:12 am

An eventual freighter if they can get cans to shoe horn into it.
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1601
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:00 am

The MAX 10 is what the MAX 9 should have been - and that is now proven in terms of the number of orders it has. When the MAX was launched, the Boeing management was a bean counter management and did not want to spend money to develop this kind of aircraft.
 
User avatar
rjsampson
Topic Author
Posts: 583
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:00 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:23 am

Thanks for the thoughtful replies.

I suspect that the order from DL for 100 MAX 10's is unique. The aircraft doesn't replace their 757s (of which they will hold onto for quite awhile). Those AC are long paid off and fly both short haul (for capacity?) and long-haul (for performance?) routes.

From what I've gathered, at least in the case of DL: Perhaps the MAX 10 is intended (at least) to replace the 757 on shorthaul?

In any case -- I suspect that Bastion has had conversations with Boeing, et. al. to restore a previously rocky relationship, and re-light the fire under Boeing executive management chairs to start taking 797 development seriously again.

I mean, I'm not suggesting Ed is playing 3-D chess here, but let's hypothetically consider that DL anticipates MAX 10 certification delays. All while had previously said (after going all Airbus) "We would be the launch customer for the 797". [Paraphrasing]

The 2nd largest airline in the world make the largest order for the MAX 10 recently (in DL's case, I really don't see the business case, outside of throwing their heft around, getting back in good graces, and motivating them to "get on it" replacing their favorite AC - the 757). But who knows? Any thoughts, esp. as it pertains to DL?
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3504
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:31 am

The 737-10 is a good fit for existing 737 operators, instead of having to try and bring in the a321neo to the fleet.

This could make more sense in terms of availability, operationally and financially for those airlines, even if from the initial numbers the alternative could well be the a more capable aircraft.

On some missions it may also have some benefits, so there really are many factors to look at.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5264
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:54 am

Noshow wrote:
It's the next best MAX thing to compete with the sold out for years A321neo. And it's cheap for high demand routes that don't require a full range. The long fuselage is helpful to install some business class up front while not losing too many total seats. I consider it to be one of the more promising MAX versions, with the 8 and 8 200 being the most promising models from my perspective. Now the -10 needs that next EICAS extension for 2023. Without it the entire program might be in hot water.

the Max doesn't have the fuselage tanks that the A321 has so the range is shorter. But? I'll bet is can uplift a good amount of Belly Cargo that the A321 Can't. So? It's an alternative. What would you need More?
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5264
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:00 am

rjsampson wrote:
Thanks for the thoughtful replies.

I suspect that the order from DL for 100 MAX 10's is unique. The aircraft doesn't replace their 757s (of which they will hold onto for quite awhile). Those AC are long paid off and fly both short haul (for capacity?) and long-haul (for performance?) routes.

From what I've gathered, at least in the case of DL: Perhaps the MAX 10 is intended (at least) to replace the 757 on shorthaul?

In any case -- I suspect that Bastion has had conversations with Boeing, et. al. to restore a previously rocky relationship, and re-light the fire under Boeing executive management chairs to start taking 797 development seriously again.

I mean, I'm not suggesting Ed is playing 3-D chess here, but let's hypothetically consider that DL anticipates MAX 10 certification delays. All while had previously said (after going all Airbus) "We would be the launch customer for the 797". [Paraphrasing]

The 2nd largest airline in the world make the largest order for the MAX 10 recently (in DL's case, I really don't see the business case, outside of throwing their heft around, getting back in good graces, and motivating them to "get on it" replacing their favorite AC - the 757). But who knows? Any thoughts, esp. as it pertains to DL?

if Delta can fly that airplane from ATL to the west coast at Max Gross weight? The airplane will Do what they need it TO do. Because? If they can fly Transcon with a full Load? They can cross the Atlantic or fly from the West Coast to Hawaii as well. What else would they need the airplane to DO?
 
jbs2886
Posts: 4217
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:16 am

rjsampson wrote:
Thanks for the thoughtful replies.

I suspect that the order from DL for 100 MAX 10's is unique. The aircraft doesn't replace their 757s (of which they will hold onto for quite awhile). Those AC are long paid off and fly both short haul (for capacity?) and long-haul (for performance?) routes.

From what I've gathered, at least in the case of DL: Perhaps the MAX 10 is intended (at least) to replace the 757 on shorthaul?

In any case -- I suspect that Bastion has had conversations with Boeing, et. al. to restore a previously rocky relationship, and re-light the fire under Boeing executive management chairs to start taking 797 development seriously again.

I mean, I'm not suggesting Ed is playing 3-D chess here, but let's hypothetically consider that DL anticipates MAX 10 certification delays. All while had previously said (after going all Airbus) "We would be the launch customer for the 797". [Paraphrasing]

The 2nd largest airline in the world make the largest order for the MAX 10 recently (in DL's case, I really don't see the business case, outside of throwing their heft around, getting back in good graces, and motivating them to "get on it" replacing their favorite AC - the 757). But who knows? Any thoughts, esp. as it pertains to DL?


DL doesn’t have the largest MAX 10 order.

Either way, I don’t get why you’re so set on DL (and any airline really) doesn’t actually want the MAX 10 and, instead, it’s placing a “fake” order to get a 797? People on this forum just can’t accept the MAX 10 does almost everything airlines need it to do.
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 1304
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:34 am

lightsaber wrote:
1. 3,300nm range is outstanding. Not A321xLR range, but sufficient to upgauge a 738 to a MAX 10 to Hawaii and even add a small number of additional routes.

2. cheap additional floor space with good door spacing. UA is putting in 22 lie flat seats in fifty MAX 10. That is more than AA or B6. in an A321:
If an airline equips the MAX 10 with three slim-line lavatories in the back (of which two could form a PRM lav.), the difference in available cabin length to house seat rows would be almost nil.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/03/13/boein ... 0a%20limit.

https://pointmetotheplane.boardingarea. ... igurations.


3. The Takeoff distance is 2500m (same as MAX 8) for that 3,300nm (3550nm for MAX 8) range and 1700m landing at MLW, good numbers. Not as good as the base A321s 1988m, but good enough. Does it matter vs. the MAX 9's 2600m, I believe it does.
https://aerocorner.com/aircraft/boeing-737-max-10/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A320neo_family

So for UA, a presumably lower purchase price, comparable opperating economics, earlier delivery, and the ability to carry more premium seats. The plane can fly TCON, west coast to Hawaii (but not from the important DEN hub). I suspect this is why DL already ordered the plane.

I've only seen Wizz air carrying more passengers on the A321 than the MAX capacity.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wizz_Air

Unless an airline needs A321xLR range, the MAX 10 allows Boeing to compete for every tender. The added 1.63m over the -9 isn't much, but the MAX -10 has 852 orders to the MAX 9's mere 258.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX

Considering how sophisticated airlines are in buying aircraft, I look for what enables success instead of questioning it: floor space, cost of stretch, and operational economics.

I fully expect over two thousand MAX 10 sales, eventually.

Lightsaber



I think with the early issues with the MAX it is fashionable to say it is a crappy plane or cannot compete with the A321 Neo. The typical line is something like "Well, Boeing must be practically giving them away, or the A320 Neo family is sold out so airlines have to settle for the MAX.".

Of course, this logic negates the fact an airline like DL has some of the best and most knowledgeable aircraft analysts and acquisition people in the industry.

Per information I have seen the 737-10 MAX is roughly 2.8 tons lighter, has better fuel performance than the comparable A321 Neo, and has more range without the A321 Neo aux tanks. Http://www.b737.org.uk//737max10.htm

So maybe despite the early problems with the MAX it is a competitive aircraft, and airlines like DL and UA actually know what they are doing. Strange thought, I know, but maybe something to consider.
 
User avatar
conaly
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon May 30, 2005 10:50 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:59 am

Maybe a little bit of topic, but I don't want to start another thread about it, so here we go: One thing I did not quite understand yet: Why does is seem, that with the 737MAX, the MAX8, so actually the second smallest version seems to be the most popular one, while with Airbus, the A321neo even overtook the A320neo. Comparing the order numbers, the current situation is like this:

MAX7 ~290
MAX8 ~2340
MAX9 ~ 260
MAX10 ~ 850

A319N ~70
A320N ~ 3800
A321N ~4200

So with Airbus, there is a very clear preference for the A321, with still a lot orders for the A320 and the A319 being no more than a side note, while with Boeing, the MAX8 has more than double the orders of the MAX10, while the MAX7 as the smallest variant falling behind but being even more successful, than the second biggest MAX9. I just don't get, what is so different about those two airplanes, which makes with Airbus the biggest version the most popular one, while with Boeing it seems kind of alternating: 7 not popular, 8 extremely popular, 9 not popular, 10 popular. I thought airlines tend to go for the bigger versions nowadays, so what makes the MAX8 so much more interesting for airlines, than for example the MAX9? They have the same range, but the MAX9 has more seats, which should give it a better CASM, but clearly airlines still want the MAX8. The MAX10 on the other hand lacks a bit in range (not significantly but still), but of course adds 10 more pax compared to the MAX9. Still it is nowhere near the numbers of the MAX8. Is it only the time gap between the offer to the market? Then I'd expect some airlines at least to convert some MAX8 to MAX10 and so on, but even LCCs seem to prefer the 8-200 where I would expect them to want the biggest version.

P.S. please no A vs B, this is not a "which is better"-question but genuine interest in the MAX business cases.
 
Noshow
Posts: 3389
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:34 am

The max 8 is attractive for high density configurations seating 200 passengers (the maximum for 4 flight attendants) at a good weight and performance and with commonality to existing 737 fleets.
All families have "sweet spots". The A321neo now has both range and capacity due to the new engines and not much direct competition.
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 1304
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:37 am

conaly wrote:
Maybe a little bit of topic, but I don't want to start another thread about it, so here we go: One thing I did not quite understand yet: Why does is seem, that with the 737MAX, the MAX8, so actually the second smallest version seems to be the most popular one, while with Airbus, the A321neo even overtook the A320neo. Comparing the order numbers, the current situation is like this:

MAX7 ~290
MAX8 ~2340
MAX9 ~ 260
MAX10 ~ 850

A319N ~70
A320N ~ 3800
A321N ~4200

So with Airbus, there is a very clear preference for the A321, with still a lot orders for the A320 and the A319 being no more than a side note, while with Boeing, the MAX8 has more than double the orders of the MAX10, while the MAX7 as the smallest variant falling behind but being even more successful, than the second biggest MAX9. I just don't get, what is so different about those two airplanes, which makes with Airbus the biggest version the most popular one, while with Boeing it seems kind of alternating: 7 not popular, 8 extremely popular, 9 not popular, 10 popular. I thought airlines tend tTo go for the bigger versions nowadays, so what makes the MAX8 so much more interesting for airlines, than for example the MAX9? They have the same range, but the MAX9 has more seats, which should give it a better CASM, but clearly airlines still want the MAX8. The MAX10 on the other hand lacks a bit in range (not significantly but still), but of course adds 10 more pax compared to the MAX9. Still it is nowhere near the numbers of the MAX8. Is it only the time gap between the offer to the market? Then I'd expect some airlines at least to convert some MAX8 to MAX10 and so on, but even LCCs seem to prefer the 8-200 where I would expect them to want the biggest version.

P.S. please no A vs B, this is not a "which is better"-question but genuine interest in the MAX business cases.



My understanding is much like 737 NG vs the A320 Ceo which were very, very close across a wide variety of metrics airlines look at...the A320 Neo and 737 MAX 8 are also very close. So in my opinion the MAX 8 and A320 Neo are eating into each other's sales.

The A321 Neo in essence created it's own niche when Boeing had nothing similar on offer. Boeing basically ceded the field and Airbus smartly offered in part a 757 replacement with vastly better economics.

Now that the MAX 10 is on offer it is starting to really sell because it can favorably compete with the A321 Neo except at the extreme end of narrow body range. I expect both the A320 and A321 Neo to continue to sell because they are fine aircraft, but MAX 10 has the potential to really eat into the A321 Neo sales, particularly if the certification happens within the current time frame.

In other words, the A321 Neo has outsold the other planes in its family due to a lack of a viable competing aircraft from Boeing, and the A321 Neo happens to be a fine aircraft.
 
Avatar2go
Posts: 971
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:41 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:55 am

There's not a simple explanation because there are many factors involved in the purchase decision.

You can broadly say that for airlines that operated the A320ceo, the upgrade to the A321neo, over the A320neo, was a more attractive option for the combination of capacity and range. The favorable balance shifted from A320 to A321 at the neo introduction.

That same shift in balance is not as prominent or as favorable in the MAX family, as you move up through the siblings to the MAX-10. The MAX-9 is an intermediate option that is overlapped at both ends by the -8 and -10. But there isn't the same driving motivation to upgauge, as in the Airbus family.

Another factor is that airlines have different routes and needs to satisfy, and different preferences for manufacturer, as well as some barriers to changing manufacturer. All of which is factored into their investment return and purchase models.

The MAX-7 being smallest, ends up competing for some routes with the A220. Which is ironic because Boeing originally claimed that in the C-Series dispute. So it will have a lesser market for that reason.
Last edited by Avatar2go on Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
DLHAM
Posts: 860
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:10 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:59 am

rjsampson wrote:
Without a doubt this has been covered, but I can't find it while searching.

What exactly is the appeal for the 737-MAX 10? It has the lowest range of the family, while only carrying ~10 more pax than the -9.

It's doesn't seem to be a competitor to the A321 NEO (range), and is certainly not a 757 replacement.

Still, it has acquired a substantial book of orders.

Where does this fit into an airline's fleet?


Just look at how many A321neos Airbus has sold over the years and you know what the deal of the MAX10 is. Range doesnt matter, 95% of all A321 and 757 routes are well within MAX10 range. The 10 has almost identical capacity as the 321neo in a 2 class configuration, better takeoff Performance as the MAX9 and from what I understand lower seat cost than the 321neo on shorter routes.
 
marcelh
Posts: 2011
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:07 am

lightsaber wrote:
The challenge for the -10 is certification. Sales are happening.

Lightsaber

Also sales were lost because of these certification challenges. Boeing lost the KLM/Transavia sale just because of this.
 
User avatar
DLHAM
Posts: 860
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:10 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:18 am

EssentialBusDC wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Another issue here is that people get variants mixed up . . From Leeham,

Extending the range of A321neo

"A standard A321, whether it is ceo (current engine option), or neo (new engine option), is limited in range at just about any cabin and passenger combination by its internal fuel capacity (all in the wings). If we use the OEM “show room” or brochure cabin configuration of 185 seats divided over 16 premium seats (short haul first class recliners at 36 inch pitch) and 169 economy seats (standard economy at 32 inch pitch) and the highest standard weight variant at 93.5t, then A321neo would have a range of 3000nm. A321neo press releases and presentations says 3600nm but there is a caveat in there which is called extra tanks." ( https://leehamnews.com/2015/01/15/airbu ... ats-there/ )

So a standard A321neo is a bit less than the 737 MAX10. An A321neo can beat the 737 MAX10 - with extra tanks - but then the trip cost goes up. And since the 737 MAX10 can match the A321neo (at least for US3 configurations) that trip cost benefit directly translates to CASM benefit.

So UA and most particularly DL line up for large orders, despite the certification uncertainty.


Per Boeing, the Max10 range of 3300nm is with one aux tank. So does it really beat a 321 when configured similarly?

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/


Yes the MAX10 (+MAX9) reach their Brochure Range with one Aux Tank. But this one is slightly smaller (2.900l instead of 3.121l) and its only one compared to the two ACTs on the A321neo. And this adds to the much larger Cargo Hold the MAX10 has compared to the A321neo. (Even the MAX9 has a slightly larger Cargo Hold than the A321neo without any ACT).
 
VS11
Posts: 1863
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:23 am

conaly wrote:
Maybe a little bit of topic, but I don't want to start another thread about it, so here we go: One thing I did not quite understand yet: Why does is seem, that with the 737MAX, the MAX8, so actually the second smallest version seems to be the most popular one, while with Airbus, the A321neo even overtook the A320neo. Comparing the order numbers, the current situation is like this:

MAX7 ~290
MAX8 ~2340
MAX9 ~ 260
MAX10 ~ 850

A319N ~70
A320N ~ 3800
A321N ~4200

So with Airbus, there is a very clear preference for the A321, with still a lot orders for the A320 and the A319 being no more than a side note, while with Boeing, the MAX8 has more than double the orders of the MAX10, while the MAX7 as the smallest variant falling behind but being even more successful, than the second biggest MAX9. I just don't get, what is so different about those two airplanes, which makes with Airbus the biggest version the most popular one, while with Boeing it seems kind of alternating: 7 not popular, 8 extremely popular, 9 not popular, 10 popular. I thought airlines tend to go for the bigger versions nowadays, so what makes the MAX8 so much more interesting for airlines, than for example the MAX9? They have the same range, but the MAX9 has more seats, which should give it a better CASM, but clearly airlines still want the MAX8. The MAX10 on the other hand lacks a bit in range (not significantly but still), but of course adds 10 more pax compared to the MAX9. Still it is nowhere near the numbers of the MAX8. Is it only the time gap between the offer to the market? Then I'd expect some airlines at least to convert some MAX8 to MAX10 and so on, but even LCCs seem to prefer the 8-200 where I would expect them to want the biggest version.

P.S. please no A vs B, this is not a "which is better"-question but genuine interest in the MAX business cases.


The very basic explanation is weight, as always with airplanes. When you compare the Max Zero Fuel Weight (how much the plane weighs on its own) to the number of max pax count you will get a basic understanding of how much weight you need to carry in order to transport one passenger or vice verse, how many passengers per unit of weight.

MZFW(kg) Max Pax Pax per KG
A319 60.3 160 2.6534
A320 64.3 194 3.0171
A321 75.6 244 3.2275
MAX 7 62.91 132 2.0982
MAX 8 65.95 210 3.1842
MAX 9 70.98 220 3.0995
MAX 10 73.11 230 3.1460

Boeing has not published the MZWF for the MAX 10 so this is a 3% increase over the MAX 9 but you can change it as you wish.

The Airbus numbers are from their site. The Boeing numbers are from Boeing's site, Wikipedia and https://modernairliners.com/boeing-737/boeing-737-max/

It is clear why the A321 and MAX 8 are leaders - they transport the most passengers per unit of weight. When the MAX 10 numbers are out, we will know more about it - right now Boeing shares them with airlines.
 
EssentialBusDC
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:06 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:48 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
EssentialBusDC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
1. 3,300nm range is outstanding. Not A321xLR range, but sufficient to upgauge a 738 to a MAX 10 to Hawaii and even add a small number of additional routes.

2. cheap additional floor space with good door spacing. UA is putting in 22 lie flat seats in fifty MAX 10. That is more than AA or B6. in an A321:
If an airline equips the MAX 10 with three slim-line lavatories in the back (of which two could form a PRM lav.), the difference in available cabin length to house seat rows would be almost nil.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/03/13/boein ... 0a%20limit.

https://pointmetotheplane.boardingarea. ... igurations.


3. The Takeoff distance is 2500m (same as MAX 8) for that 3,300nm (3550nm for MAX 8) range and 1700m landing at MLW, good numbers. Not as good as the base A321s 1988m, but good enough. Does it matter vs. the MAX 9's 2600m, I believe it does.
https://aerocorner.com/aircraft/boeing-737-max-10/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A320neo_family

So for UA, a presumably lower purchase price, comparable opperating economics, earlier delivery, and the ability to carry more premium seats. The plane can fly TCON, west coast to Hawaii (but not from the important DEN hub). I suspect this is why DL already ordered the plane.

I've only seen Wizz air carrying more passengers on the A321 than the MAX capacity.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wizz_Air

Unless an airline needs A321xLR range, the MAX 10 allows Boeing to compete for every tender. The added 1.63m over the -9 isn't much, but the MAX -10 has 852 orders to the MAX 9's mere 258.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX

Considering how sophisticated airlines are in buying aircraft, I look for what enables success instead of questioning it: floor space, cost of stretch, and operational economics.

I fully expect over two thousand MAX 10 sales, eventually.

Lightsaber


Regarding point 2.

Not sure putting lie flat on the 737-10 is still the plan for United though. Those articles were before UAL ordered the additional 70 321 NEO’s. (Non XLR versions) so things may have changed.


Oh because lie flats obviously belong in the neo and not the MAX.


Ummm no.

Sure the Max10 could have lie flats at UAL since that was the original plan. But with those 70 321 Neo’s now being added, and a lie flat product already being designed for the 321 XLR, why not just keep things common and put them on the 321 NEO’s? No need for a different seat (if the lie flat seat for the Max would be different due to cabin dimensions). I have no idea if they would be different, hence why I said not sure.

Just looking at it from a common configuration/product perspective, and trying to eliminate multiple seating configurations across a specific fleet.
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 931
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:50 pm

EssentialBusDC wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
EssentialBusDC wrote:

Regarding point 2.

Not sure putting lie flat on the 737-10 is still the plan for United though. Those articles were before UAL ordered the additional 70 321 NEO’s. (Non XLR versions) so things may have changed.


Oh because lie flats obviously belong in the neo and not the MAX.


Ummm no.

Sure the Max10 could have lie flats at UAL since that was the original plan. But with those 70 321 Neo’s now being added, and a lie flat product already being designed for the 321 XLR, why not just keep things common and put them on the 321 NEO’s? No need for a different seat (if the lie flat seat for the Max would be different due to cabin dimensions). I have no idea if they would be different, hence why I said not sure.

Just looking at it from a common configuration/product perspective, and trying to eliminate multiple seating configurations across a specific fleet.


The A321neo is optimized for a longer stage length than the MAX10. Lay flats only make economical sense on long stage lengths. All else being equal, the neo’s would be the better technical choice for the lay flats since they’re already committed to a mixed fleet.

That said, there are 50 XLR’s coming with lay flats. I’m not convinced they can use many more than 50 frames effectively.
 
EssentialBusDC
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:06 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:07 pm

DLHAM wrote:
EssentialBusDC wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Another issue here is that people get variants mixed up . . From Leeham,

Extending the range of A321neo

"A standard A321, whether it is ceo (current engine option), or neo (new engine option), is limited in range at just about any cabin and passenger combination by its internal fuel capacity (all in the wings). If we use the OEM “show room” or brochure cabin configuration of 185 seats divided over 16 premium seats (short haul first class recliners at 36 inch pitch) and 169 economy seats (standard economy at 32 inch pitch) and the highest standard weight variant at 93.5t, then A321neo would have a range of 3000nm. A321neo press releases and presentations says 3600nm but there is a caveat in there which is called extra tanks." ( https://leehamnews.com/2015/01/15/airbu ... ats-there/ )

So a standard A321neo is a bit less than the 737 MAX10. An A321neo can beat the 737 MAX10 - with extra tanks - but then the trip cost goes up. And since the 737 MAX10 can match the A321neo (at least for US3 configurations) that trip cost benefit directly translates to CASM benefit.

So UA and most particularly DL line up for large orders, despite the certification uncertainty.


Per Boeing, the Max10 range of 3300nm is with one aux tank. So does it really beat a 321 when configured similarly?

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/


Yes the MAX10 (+MAX9) reach their Brochure Range with one Aux Tank. But this one is slightly smaller (2.900l instead of 3.121l) and its only one compared to the two ACTs on the A321neo. And this adds to the much larger Cargo Hold the MAX10 has compared to the A321neo. (Even the MAX9 has a slightly larger Cargo Hold than the A321neo without any ACT).


Ok. Just so we are talking apples to apples.

The range of the Max10 with 1 ACT is 3300nm per Boeing. That ACT would take space from cargo capability.

What is the range of the 321 NEO with 1 ACT and cargo capability?

Or I guess a different way to ask for comparison is what is the range for each without any ACT’s used since we are talking primarily domestic short haul flights?
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 2081
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:35 pm

Avatar2go wrote:
The MAX-7 being smallest, ends up competing for some routes with the A220. Which is ironic because Boeing originally claimed that in the C-Series dispute. So it will have a lesser market for that reason.



It is a little more nuanced than that, right? The MAX7 competes against the A220 because it is the smallest aircraft Boeing can offer, not because it would be the most appropriate during a RFP. So in the Delta case the A220-100 or CS100, while up against the MAX 7, was not in competition as Boeing could not offer an aircraft Delta was looking for.

If you are looking for a family van and Ferrari offers an F8, just because it was offered does not mean it was in competition with the car you are looking to buy. Hence why the dispute was thrown out as the MAX7 is not in competition against the CS100 or A221. Now had it been the A223 you would be correct, but I don't think your statement above is entirely accurate.
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 1304
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:08 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
The MAX-7 being smallest, ends up competing for some routes with the A220. Which is ironic because Boeing originally claimed that in the C-Series dispute. So it will have a lesser market for that reason.



It is a little more nuanced than that, right? The MAX7 competes against the A220 because it is the smallest aircraft Boeing can offer, not because it would be the most appropriate during a RFP. So in the Delta case the A220-100 or CS100, while up against the MAX 7, was not in competition as Boeing could not offer an aircraft Delta was looking for.

If you are looking for a family van and Ferrari offers an F8, just because it was offered does not mean it was in competition with the car you are looking to buy. Hence why the dispute was thrown out as the MAX7 is not in competition against the CS100 or A221. Now had it been the A223 you would be correct, but I don't think your statement above is entirely accurate.


The 737 MAX7 is starting to look like the 736 or A319 NEO imho. A niche aircraft that does not have the economics of their larger brothers.

I am a huge fan of the A220 family for a variety of reasons. I don't see the 737 MAX7 seriously challenging the lower end of the narrow body market.
 
Noshow
Posts: 3389
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:33 pm

If you already have a big 737 fleet and pilots and need short field performance and range but not capacity you might see it different. The A220 is a good aircraft but sort of an orphan and exot within everybody's crowd.
 
User avatar
conaly
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon May 30, 2005 10:50 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:33 pm

Noshow wrote:
If you already have a big 737 fleet and pilots and need short field performance and range but not capacity you might see it different. The A220 is a good aircraft but sort of an orphan and exot within everybody's crowd.


Is this even a real issue or just some typical guess, why an aircraft should not enter a fleet? There is hardly any legacy carrier today, that does not have mixed fleets in certain areas.
 
sfojvjets
Posts: 480
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:00 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:51 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Oh because lie flats obviously belong in the neo and not the MAX.

I love Boeing just as much any patriotic guy. But the 321neo does seem to have a very slight edge over the MAX 10 when it comes to capacity, not to mention that its cabin is around 6 or 7ish inches wider. Ignoring range, these metrics are obviously key to choosing which aircraft to place the lie-flats in. You don't want the pods/suites facing directly into the aisle and nor do you want the aisles to be very narrow. A wider cabin simply means more flexibility.

In fact I hope United tries out a Polaris-style J seat on their premium narrowbody aircraft. From what I understand their existing 1-1 forward-facing Polaris configuration (basically 2/3 of the 767 cabin width, which offers 1-1-1 Polaris) should be able to slot neatly into both the MAX and the neo. So apart from wanting to increase seat density, I don't understand why they would want to introduce a whole new aisle-facing narrowbody J seat type (like the one that leaked a couple years back that was meant for their MAX 10s). In fact, with their quest to become more premium, a forward-facing direct aisle access 1-1 narrowbody J would really set them apart. Even Delta plans on shoving their J seats into the 321neo in a funky angle to increase seat density. I'm thinking that United will replicate the leaked DL seat map or just put in a "true" Polaris 1-1 config. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO87RtFWUAE ... name=small
 
Avatar2go
Posts: 971
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:41 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:01 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
The MAX-7 being smallest, ends up competing for some routes with the A220. Which is ironic because Boeing originally claimed that in the C-Series dispute. So it will have a lesser market for that reason.



It is a little more nuanced than that, right? The MAX7 competes against the A220 because it is the smallest aircraft Boeing can offer, not because it would be the most appropriate during a RFP. So in the Delta case the A220-100 or CS100, while up against the MAX 7, was not in competition as Boeing could not offer an aircraft Delta was looking for.

If you are looking for a family van and Ferrari offers an F8, just because it was offered does not mean it was in competition with the car you are looking to buy. Hence why the dispute was thrown out as the MAX7 is not in competition against the CS100 or A221. Now had it been the A223 you would be correct, but I don't think your statement above is entirely accurate.


Yes, it's not a full overlap competition, but like I said they compete on some routes. That's the simple fact, as demonstrated by a few airlines considering them for the same niche.
 
Noshow
Posts: 3389
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:01 pm

Is this even a real issue

Real issue, many airlines even move to single type or very few type fleets. Like Southwest, Air Baltic, Ryanair. JetBlue. Southwest likes the MAX 7.
 
Avatar2go
Posts: 971
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:41 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:04 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
Avatar2go wrote:
The MAX-7 being smallest, ends up competing for some routes with the A220. Which is ironic because Boeing originally claimed that in the C-Series dispute. So it will have a lesser market for that reason.



It is a little more nuanced than that, right? The MAX7 competes against the A220 because it is the smallest aircraft Boeing can offer, not because it would be the most appropriate during a RFP. So in the Delta case the A220-100 or CS100, while up against the MAX 7, was not in competition as Boeing could not offer an aircraft Delta was looking for.

If you are looking for a family van and Ferrari offers an F8, just because it was offered does not mean it was in competition with the car you are looking to buy. Hence why the dispute was thrown out as the MAX7 is not in competition against the CS100 or A221. Now had it been the A223 you would be correct, but I don't think your statement above is entirely accurate.


The 737 MAX7 is starting to look like the 736 or A319 NEO imho. A niche aircraft that does not have the economics of their larger brothers.

I am a huge fan of the A220 family for a variety of reasons. I don't see the 737 MAX7 seriously challenging the lower end of the narrow body market.


Agreed, the route overlap is not large enough for the MAX-7 to compete at the lower end of that market range. Really only at the higher end where they are viewed as potential alternatives.
 
User avatar
conaly
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon May 30, 2005 10:50 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:07 pm

Noshow wrote:
Is this even a real issue

Real issue, many airlines even move to single type or very few type fleets. Like Southwest, Air Baltic, Ryanair. JetBlue. Southwest likes the MAX 7.


Those are all LCCs, not legacy carriers. LCCs always wanted a homogeneous fleet. However, most legacy carriers have multiple aircraft types filling the same roles. The US big 3 for example all have A320ceo, neo and 737NG and MAX either already in their fleets or on order.

And the mentioned Jetblue isn't even a good example, as they currently have three different types: A320, A220 and E190.
 
arcticcruiser
Posts: 525
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:16 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:16 pm

EssentialBusDC wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
EssentialBusDC wrote:

Per Boeing, the Max10 range of 3300nm is with one aux tank. So does it really beat a 321 when configured similarly?

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/


Yes the MAX10 (+MAX9) reach their Brochure Range with one Aux Tank. But this one is slightly smaller (2.900l instead of 3.121l) and its only one compared to the two ACTs on the A321neo. And this adds to the much larger Cargo Hold the MAX10 has compared to the A321neo. (Even the MAX9 has a slightly larger Cargo Hold than the A321neo without any ACT).


Ok. Just so we are talking apples to apples.

The range of the Max10 with 1 ACT is 3300nm per Boeing. That ACT would take space from cargo capability.

What is the range of the 321 NEO with 1 ACT and cargo capability?

Or I guess a different way to ask for comparison is what is the range for each without any ACT’s used since we are talking primarily domestic short haul flights?


Forget cargo capacity. The 737-10 has a useful load of 40.000 kgs (fuel and payload). Put in an ACT (with the associated weight) and ca. 23.000 kgs of fuel. That leaves about 17.000 kgs for payload. Less than 160 pax. Forget cargo. And incidentally, the useful load of the -10, is on a par with the -9 or even less.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 13462
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:57 pm

arcticcruiser wrote:
That leaves about 17.000 kgs for payload. Less than 160 pax.

That’s some heavy pax.
 
flight152
Posts: 3559
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2000 8:04 am

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:00 am

Noshow wrote:
Is this even a real issue

Real issue, many airlines even move to single type or very few type fleets. Like Southwest, Air Baltic, Ryanair. JetBlue. Southwest likes the MAX 7.


They like the Max 7? Because they’ve flown so many?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 24176
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:39 am

EssentialBusDC wrote:
Regarding point 2.

Not sure putting lie flat on the 737-10 is still the plan for United though. Those articles were before UAL ordered the additional 70 321 NEO’s. (Non XLR versions) so things may have changed.

It will depend on business yield. The A321NEO, as per links I provided earlier, will have a slight reduction in lie flat seats vs. the MAX, just based on the door spacing. UA has the luxury of deciding at a later time.

If UA determines they want more seats, 737-10, if slightly fewer (but overall more passengers), A321NEO for the high premium routes. However, I quoted the UA statement which wasn't long before the A321NEO order, so I suspect still current. With 250 MAX on order vs. a smaller number of NEOs, they will obviously be flying both on many similar routes.

UA needs multiple configurations. Some will have smaller number of lie flats than others. The link I provided before was for 22 lie flats. DL will have 16 (see link below). I'm sure UA will have some lesser premium, long range markets where A321NEOs will get lie flats (e.g., Hawaii). However, I would expect SFO, LAX, ORD, EWR, IAH, and IAD to be interconnected with high frequency MAX10s for the maximum number of lie flat seats per flight as well as those cities to a few more high capacity lie flat to other destinations. Actually, how is the premium demand at DEN? I just don't know...
https://onemileatatime.com/news/delta-a ... flat-beds/

ElroyJetson wrote:
So maybe despite the early problems with the MAX it is a competitive aircraft, and airlines like DL and UA actually know what they are doing. Strange thought, I know, but maybe something to consider.

I know strange. All I'm arguing is that there are certain niches the MAX-10 will thrive. As you noted (but I didn't quote), both DL and UA know what to look for in aircraft.

The MAX 10 is selling. Once certified, I expect sales to accelerate.

With 250 MAX 10 on order, UA is the "big dog" in the MAX 10 world. DL is #2 with a hundred orders. I personally will be surprised if WN and FR do not eventually order the MAX 10 in large numbers in a few years.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 24176
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Business Case/Niche for 737-MAX10 ?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:13 am

Polot wrote:
arcticcruiser wrote:
That leaves about 17.000 kgs for payload. Less than 160 pax.

That’s some heavy pax.

The MAX 10's range for 188 passengers is 3,300nm. If an airline wants more range, they can put in fewer seats (or fly empty seats).
Note: The range could be for 204 passengers, I'm not certain from the sources I could find (3300nm is two class range and Boeing declares 2 class pax as 188 to 204):

https://newatlas.com/aircraft/boeing-73 ... %20engines.

The FAA standard was increased to 100kg per passenger a long time ago (220lb): https://www.aircraftvaluenews.com/passe ... -aircraft/

I recall reading Boeing was using 105kg for pax+baggage. Is that correct?

So if the debate is Boeing has surplus fuel volume in the MAX-10 that is unusable at a full 2-class configuration, that can be agreed upon. That doesn't mean they are limited to 17,000kg. It means if they want (or need) more range, they can remove payload to extend the range. Or conversely, just as in the A321, Boeing can reduce range for more payload.

Where did the 40,000kg come from? With the increased MTOW of 89,800 kg, there should be a little more weight lifted by the MAX10 in a 2-class configuration. Not a lot, but a bit more. If the point is this isn't an A321xLR competitor, that is a given. For FR in Europe, they do not need that range. Same with WN and the 2-class range exceeds the needs of AA, UA, and DL. It has reduced the market that Airbus has uncontested to the A321xLR (I'm sorry, the A321LR is, in my opinion, done with sales due to the much better capability of the A321xLR). That is one heck of a great business case.

I used wikipedia for MTOW:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX

Lightsaber

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos