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Midwestindy
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Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:36 am

If you check Google Flights, all these routes appear to be gone after the first week of October...

What is unique is that all these dropped routes still have service to another DL hub.

ABE-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)
BTV-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)
CID-DTW (4x daily Oct 2019)
DAY-DTW (4x daily Oct 2019)
FWA-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)

Other routes that I'd put on watch from DTW:
BHM/HSV/MDT-DTW down to 1x daily, GSO-DTW less than daily
 
Pi7472000
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:43 am

Sad to see these cuts! I would much rather connect on Delta through DTW than MSP or ATL. It is such a nice airport! I wonder if the merged JetBlue will expand in DTW to take over some of the Delta cuts.
 
kavok
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:53 am

BTV’s connections are just being rerouted from DTW to LGA.

To maintain the reliability and connection service quality DL has been providing in summer 2022, shifting connections from DTW to LGA should help meet that customer experience expectation.
 
umichman
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:01 am

Not too surprising. The fact that they have flights to other hubs means they won't lose DL service entirely. If they cut DTW-SCE/ITH/ELM/BGM flights, they would have no DL service.
 
kavok
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:10 am

umichman wrote:
Not too surprising. The fact that they have flights to other hubs means they won't lose DL service entirely. If they cut DTW-SCE/ITH/ELM/BGM flights, they would have no DL service.


Starting in Mid October, ABE and FWA are both down to 2x daily RJ as the total DL service offered (both flights to ATL). That is borderline endangered species territory when it comes to DL metal.

The other aspect is that DLs scheduling at DTW is making connections very difficult on a lot of potential remaining routes. A pax may want to connect in DTW, and there may be a AAA-DTW flight and a DTW-BBB flight… but very often AAA-DTW-BBB is not possible (without a DTW overnight) because the flight times are poorly timed for DTW connections. This creates a death spiral situation where feeder flights don’t fill up, and receiving flights this experience lower load factors. It’s almost like DL is trying to make DTW connections unappetizing.
Last edited by kavok on Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:36 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:13 am

LGA has to be bolstered in some kind of capacity and that means at the casualty of DTW regional jet routes.
 
kavok
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:32 am

flymco753 wrote:
LGA has to be bolstered in some kind of capacity and that means at the casualty of DTW regional jet routes.


Yep, DL shareholders need to see the airline try and generate less profits. Shifting fuller planes at higher fares (on BTV-DTW), to a 3x daily lower load factor route (BTV-LGA) helps accomplish this. Apologies for being salty, but let’s call it what it is. A bad decision for pax, and a bad decision for the company making $… but a good decision for ego.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:41 am

Hardly surprising. A lot of these routes likely cater to minimal O&D traffic; connections to markets like ABE and BTV can be routed through other hubs easily enough. Meanwhile, DL has restored nonstop service to a number of markets that have far greater appeal to DTW's local as well as connecting pax: FCO, HNL and SNA spring to mind as some of the more notable and recent examples.

Ultimately, something like an AA AUS operation probably makes the most sense for DL at DTW. I doubt most FFers are going to miss nonstop RJ flights to Cedar Rapids, Fort Wayne or even the likes of Greensboro and Huntsville. Just make sure there is adequate nonstop access to the family timeshare in Fort Myers :-)
 
jbs2886
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:42 am

kavok wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
LGA has to be bolstered in some kind of capacity and that means at the casualty of DTW regional jet routes.


Yep, DL shareholders need to see the airline try and generate less profits. Shifting fuller planes at higher fares (on BTV-DTW), to a 3x daily lower load factor route (BTV-LGA) helps accomplish this. Apologies for being salty, but let’s call it what it is. A bad decision for pax, and a bad decision for the company making $… but a good decision for ego.


Ahh yes shareholders definitely want DL to give up extremely valuable LGA rights so a competitor can come in with large planes and dilute fares and take share in a critical, high value market. This is a good decision for the company and has zero to do with ego.
Last edited by jbs2886 on Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:44 am

Midwestindy wrote:
If you check Google Flights, all these routes appear to be gone after the first week of October...

What is unique is that all these dropped routes still have service to another DL hub.

ABE-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)
BTV-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)
CID-DTW (4x daily Oct 2019)
DAY-DTW (4x daily Oct 2019)
FWA-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)

Other routes that I'd put on watch from DTW:
BHM/HSV/MDT-DTW down to 1x daily, GSO-DTW less than daily


BHM and HSV are less then one daily, BHM is 4 x weekly and HSV is 5 x weekly. I would put SBN on the watch and how BMI still has any service (State Farm traffic?) is beyond me.

DAY and FWA are surprising given the proximity to DTW, but it is clear the DL is having to making some hard decisions on smaller cities.
 
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Polot
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:45 am

kavok wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
LGA has to be bolstered in some kind of capacity and that means at the casualty of DTW regional jet routes.


Yep, DL shareholders need to see the airline try and generate less profits. Shifting fuller planes at higher fares (on BTV-DTW), to a 3x daily lower load factor route (BTV-LGA) helps accomplish this. Apologies for being salty, but let’s call it what it is. A bad decision for pax, and a bad decision for the company making $… but a good decision for ego.

It has nothing to do with ego. DL needs to use the LGA slots or else they lose them. So you are seeing DL shift traffic that they would normally connect over DTW to LGA to help keep those flights operating and full.

Unfortunately for DTW with Asia still very weak DTW’s strategic importance in DL’s network takes a huge nose dive.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:19 am

DL is trying hard to make itself irrelevant in smaller markets.

Frustrating to see none the less
 
Jshank83
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:22 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL is trying hard to make itself irrelevant in smaller markets.

Frustrating to see none the less


And some bigger markets also. I’d guess they are far behind in some mid sized cities from where they were in 2019… even 2021.
 
kavok
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:24 am

jbs2886 wrote:
kavok wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
LGA has to be bolstered in some kind of capacity and that means at the casualty of DTW regional jet routes.


Yep, DL shareholders need to see the airline try and generate less profits. Shifting fuller planes at higher fares (on BTV-DTW), to a 3x daily lower load factor route (BTV-LGA) helps accomplish this. Apologies for being salty, but let’s call it what it is. A bad decision for pax, and a bad decision for the company making $… but a good decision for ego.


Ahh yes shareholders definitely want DL to give up extremely valuable LGA rights so a competitor can come in with large planes and dilute fares and take share in a critical, high value market. This is a good decision for the company and has zero to do with ego.


Except… which competitor would actually do it (bring in a bunch of large planes into LGA)?

AA? The majority of their LGA flights are already RJs. AA could bring more large planes to LGA today if they wanted. They don’t.

UA? Seems like they’d be cannibalizing their EWR hub.

B6? Maybe, but it seems like they are inheriting a bunch of LGA slots from NK anyway.

Maybe the value for DL is simply that LGA slots are perceived to be valuable.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:28 am

I am a bit salty to but the reality is the staffing situation is so bad at the regionals they have to make cuts. CR2 stuff with minimal O&D is low hanging fruit.

It’s been posted in other threads but the DTW EAS flying is getting hacked in September to tag on flights / round robin between DTW and MSP

We are seeing the CR2 retirement plan in real time. While it sucks for DTW it sucks a lot more for anyone trying to use DL in these smaller markets.

It seems like DL is a few years ahead of AA and UA in their 50 seater draw down. Time will tell what happens to these airports

Some are just going to be less than daily G4 and AVelo as their savior
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:28 am

…..but is all about BOS and LGA…..where we can fly CR9s with 60% LF
 
jbs2886
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:29 am

kavok wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
kavok wrote:

Yep, DL shareholders need to see the airline try and generate less profits. Shifting fuller planes at higher fares (on BTV-DTW), to a 3x daily lower load factor route (BTV-LGA) helps accomplish this. Apologies for being salty, but let’s call it what it is. A bad decision for pax, and a bad decision for the company making $… but a good decision for ego.


Ahh yes shareholders definitely want DL to give up extremely valuable LGA rights so a competitor can come in with large planes and dilute fares and take share in a critical, high value market. This is a good decision for the company and has zero to do with ego.


Except… which competitor would actually do it (bring in a bunch of large planes into LGA)?

AA? The majority of their LGA flights are already RJs. AA could bring more large planes to LGA today if they wanted. They don’t.

UA? Seems like they’d be cannibalizing their EWR hub.

B6? Maybe, but it seems like they are inheriting a bunch of LGA slots from NK anyway.

Maybe the value for DL is simply that LGA slots are perceived to be valuable.


You think no airline is going to jump for those slots? They absolutely will. B6 and WN come to mind, but others would want them, too. Those slots are extremely valuable and important.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:33 am

I think BHM, HSV are safe as there is auto industry traffic on that routes.
And being longer and thinner they would likely have already been cut or not restored since they are hub overfly routes
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:38 am

I will add I think we are seeing the rollback of airline networks that over the next 12 months or so you will see very few small markets get service to more than one hub. The days of flinging RJs all over the map is over. Large and medium sized cities no problem. Smaller stuff is going to the closet hub with the best O&D or optimal flow to connect best to sun / beach / leisure markets
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:45 am

Ok…. On the flip side from the current status quo in august 2022…

This represents a reduction of 5 CRJ200 flights per day from DTW….250 seats.

ABE, BTV, CID, DAY, FWA are currently only operating at 1x per day each. The capacity/ frequency was never restored post pandemic.

DL upgauging a few other routes here or there or adding another mainline flight pretty much nets out the loss of seats from DTW.

It’s a bigger deal for the smaller markets than DTW
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:01 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I am a bit salty to but the reality is the staffing situation is so bad at the regionals they have to make cuts. CR2 stuff with minimal O&D is low hanging fruit.

It’s been posted in other threads but the DTW EAS flying is getting hacked in September to tag on flights / round robin between DTW and MSP

We are seeing the CR2 retirement plan in real time. While it sucks for DTW it sucks a lot more for anyone trying to use DL in these smaller markets.

It seems like DL is a few years ahead of AA and UA in their 50 seater draw down. Time will tell what happens to these airports

Some are just going to be less than daily G4 and AVelo as their savior


I noticed on Planespotters.net that the Delta Connection fleet of CRJ2s is down to a total of 75 aircraft, of which 23 of them are parked. I imagine by the end of this year those 23 CRJ2s sitting might be headed to the desert scrapyards. That will bring the CRJ2 fleet total down to 52, with the final draw down occurring in 2023.

Along with the DTW regional cuts, many more cities, including ones in the Deep South feeding ATL, will also lose service after the CRJ2's are retired.
 
F9Animal
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:03 am

I don't see this as permanent, but as a temporary way for Delta to get a better handle on it's staffing. I am confident when things get better in terms of pilots and workers, we will see things get back to where they should be.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:14 am

We have heard mixed messaging from credible posters on here about the timing of the CR2 retirement.

During the depths of the pandemic the 2023 date was put out there. (Along with the 717 and 763 retirement dates which have been pushed out).

The DCI side has been hit hard by pilot staffing as the attrition is through the roof as the legacy’s LCC and ULCC have raided the regional rosters.

The question is can they recover from the current staffing situation or is the regional model of slave labor wages now dead.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:11 am

AA is cutting flights at PHL and now DL is going to cut DTW. So will this help maintain schedule integrity? or are the flights being moved to another hub to shore up competition?
 
strfyr51
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:21 am

kavok wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
kavok wrote:

Yep, DL shareholders need to see the airline try and generate less profits. Shifting fuller planes at higher fares (on BTV-DTW), to a 3x daily lower load factor route (BTV-LGA) helps accomplish this. Apologies for being salty, but let’s call it what it is. A bad decision for pax, and a bad decision for the company making $… but a good decision for ego.


Ahh yes shareholders definitely want DL to give up extremely valuable LGA rights so a competitor can come in with large planes and dilute fares and take share in a critical, high value market. This is a good decision for the company and has zero to do with ego.


Except… which competitor would actually do it (bring in a bunch of large planes into LGA)?

AA? The majority of their LGA flights are already RJs. AA could bring more large planes to LGA today if they wanted. They don’t.

UA? Seems like they’d be cannibalizing their EWR hub.

B6? Maybe, but it seems like they are inheriting a bunch of LGA slots from NK anyway.

Maybe the value for DL is simply that LGA slots are perceived to be valuable.

I don't think DL can readily afford to cut LGA as it has been with them for a damn long time and it makes perfect sense for them to keep what they have.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:10 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
AA is cutting flights at PHL and now DL is going to cut DTW. So will this help maintain schedule integrity? or are the flights being moved to another hub to shore up competition?
Connecting flows in general are being pushed through ATL and NYC. Can't afford to lose status in Atlanta, can't afford to lose slots in NYC. Lose lose situation
 
Runway765
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:18 pm

This begs the question, is there really a need for two DL Midwest hubs anymore?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:34 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

The question is can they recover from the current staffing situation or is the regional model of slave labor wages now dead.


There are two ways to look at this:

1. Pilot counts will be limited because carriers will continue to try to suppress wages at regional carriers.

or

2. Wages will be much higher, so carriers will demand less RJ pilot labor

Either way, they will want RJ pilots flying 76-seat aircraft, not 50-seat aircraft, to improve pilot labor-hour and pilot labor-dollar productivity.

Like you said, DL is ahead of AA and UA in reducing 50-seat flying. The route cuts and destination losses are far from done.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:44 pm

F9Animal wrote:
I don't see this as permanent, but as a temporary way for Delta to get a better handle on it's staffing. I am confident when things get better in terms of pilots and workers, we will see things get back to where they should be.


Idk about that, it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle. And if it really was "temporary," why completely pull all these routes all the way through next summer?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:51 pm

flymco753 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
AA is cutting flights at PHL and now DL is going to cut DTW. So will this help maintain schedule integrity? or are the flights being moved to another hub to shore up competition?
Connecting flows in general are being pushed through ATL and NYC. Can't afford to lose status in Atlanta, can't afford to lose slots in NYC. Lose lose situation


It's not a question of retaining status in Atlanta. DL retains flow through ATL to maintain gauge for lower CASM, higher frequency for connectivity, and for higher destination count. AA does the same thing in DFW and CLT. It's one of the basics of hub airline networks.
 
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Polot
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:09 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
AA is cutting flights at PHL and now DL is going to cut DTW. So will this help maintain schedule integrity? or are the flights being moved to another hub to shore up competition?
Connecting flows in general are being pushed through ATL and NYC. Can't afford to lose status in Atlanta, can't afford to lose slots in NYC. Lose lose situation


It's not a question of retaining status in Atlanta. DL retains flow through ATL to maintain gauge for lower CASM, higher frequency for connectivity, and for higher destination count. AA does the same thing in DFW and CLT. It's one of the basics of hub airline networks.

Also well located to connect the ever popular and easy to fill Florida runs.

It sucks because DTW is a great airport but it’s stuck in a bad situation. You have JFK/LGA to the east which DL can’t cut due to slots. You have BOS to the NE that DL can’t significantly cut for competitive reasons (B6/AA). You have MSP to the west, whose distance from the other hubs (minus DTW) help protect it. You have ATL to the south which is the largest hub in the country. SLC’s location is too important to cut. SEA can’t be significantly cut for competitive reasons (AS/AA). Ditto LAX.

DTW is the odd man out. It’s a fortress hub where DL controls a majority of the gates, so they can scale down without worrying about a competitor backfilling capacity, and can scale back up when ready (especially as Detroit O&D can be rocky, the airport relies a lot on connections to sustain its size). It’s surrounded by other hubs that handle traffic flows (even if it is not always ideal connection). It’s role as east US Asian gateway is basically useless in current circumstances. So it takes a brunt of the cuts.
 
kavok
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:26 pm

Polot wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Connecting flows in general are being pushed through ATL and NYC. Can't afford to lose status in Atlanta, can't afford to lose slots in NYC. Lose lose situation


It's not a question of retaining status in Atlanta. DL retains flow through ATL to maintain gauge for lower CASM, higher frequency for connectivity, and for higher destination count. AA does the same thing in DFW and CLT. It's one of the basics of hub airline networks.

Also well located to connect the ever popular and easy to fill Florida runs.

It sucks because DTW is a great airport but it’s stuck in a bad situation. You have JFK/LGA to the east which DL can’t cut due to slots. You have BOS to the NE that DL can’t significantly cut for competitive reasons (B6/AA). You have MSP to the west, whose distance from the other hubs (minus DTW) help protect it. You have ATL to the south which is the largest hub in the country. SLC’s location is too important to cut. SEA can’t be significantly cut for competitive reasons (AS/AA). Ditto LAX.

DTW is the odd man out. It’s a fortress hub where DL controls a majority of the gates, so they can scale down without worrying about a competitor backfilling capacity, and can scale back up when ready (especially as Detroit O&D can be rocky, the airport relies a lot on connections to sustain its size). It’s surrounded by other hubs that handle traffic flows (even if it is not always ideal connection). It’s role as east US Asian gateway is basically useless in current circumstances. So it takes a brunt of the cuts.



I agree with many of the points… but it’s worth pointing out that neither DTW or MSP actually rely on connections that much, relatively speaking.

Even in 2019, DTW/MSP were the only two interior hubs (among AA/DL/UA) whose O/D operation was larger than connecting pax.

The OD % of DL at ATL/SLC, or AA at DFW/ORD/CLT, or UA at ORD/DEN… those hubs were all in the approximate 30% or 40% O/D, with the vast majority of pax connections. DTW/MSP again were both majority (> 50%) O/D, and that % has only grown. So really of any major interior hub, save maybe MSP, DTW is actually the least reliant on connections.

The other part being overlooked is that DTW actually is well placed geographically for Northeast to Midwest/West domestic flows. Those volumes tend to be seasonal though, and ATL is obviously in a better spot geographically for wintertime North-South domestic flows.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:53 pm

kavok wrote:
Even in 2019, DTW/MSP were the only two interior hubs (among AA/DL/UA) whose O/D operation was larger than connecting pax.

The OD % of DL at ATL/SLC, or AA at DFW/ORD/CLT, or UA at ORD/DEN… those hubs were all in the approximate 30% or 40% O/D, with the vast majority of pax connections. DTW/MSP again were both majority (> 50%) O/D, and that % has only grown. So really of any major interior hub, save maybe MSP, DTW is actually the least reliant on connections.


Can you show a data source for that? I've seen data pointing to MSP and DTW being less than 50% O&D, more reliant on connecting traffic than ORD in particular.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:13 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
kavok wrote:
Even in 2019, DTW/MSP were the only two interior hubs (among AA/DL/UA) whose O/D operation was larger than connecting pax.

The OD % of DL at ATL/SLC, or AA at DFW/ORD/CLT, or UA at ORD/DEN… those hubs were all in the approximate 30% or 40% O/D, with the vast majority of pax connections. DTW/MSP again were both majority (> 50%) O/D, and that % has only grown. So really of any major interior hub, save maybe MSP, DTW is actually the least reliant on connections.


Can you show a data source for that? I've seen data pointing to MSP and DTW being less than 50% O&D, more reliant on connecting traffic than ORD in particular.


Id like to see that data too. Im skeptical.
 
SESGDL
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:43 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
kavok wrote:
Even in 2019, DTW/MSP were the only two interior hubs (among AA/DL/UA) whose O/D operation was larger than connecting pax.

The OD % of DL at ATL/SLC, or AA at DFW/ORD/CLT, or UA at ORD/DEN… those hubs were all in the approximate 30% or 40% O/D, with the vast majority of pax connections. DTW/MSP again were both majority (> 50%) O/D, and that % has only grown. So really of any major interior hub, save maybe MSP, DTW is actually the least reliant on connections.


Can you show a data source for that? I've seen data pointing to MSP and DTW being less than 50% O&D, more reliant on connecting traffic than ORD in particular.


Id like to see that data too. Im skeptical.


https://orlandoairports.net/site/upload ... 202112.pdf

This was the case before Covid and remains the case. Not sure why you’d be skeptical of this, all of DL’s hubs apart from ATL are majority O&D.

Jeremy
Last edited by SESGDL on Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:44 pm

Polot wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Connecting flows in general are being pushed through ATL and NYC. Can't afford to lose status in Atlanta, can't afford to lose slots in NYC. Lose lose situation


It's not a question of retaining status in Atlanta. DL retains flow through ATL to maintain gauge for lower CASM, higher frequency for connectivity, and for higher destination count. AA does the same thing in DFW and CLT. It's one of the basics of hub airline networks.

Also well located to connect the ever popular and easy to fill Florida runs.

It sucks because DTW is a great airport but it’s stuck in a bad situation. You have JFK/LGA to the east which DL can’t cut due to slots. You have BOS to the NE that DL can’t significantly cut for competitive reasons (B6/AA). You have MSP to the west, whose distance from the other hubs (minus DTW) help protect it. You have ATL to the south which is the largest hub in the country. SLC’s location is too important to cut. SEA can’t be significantly cut for competitive reasons (AS/AA). Ditto LAX.

DTW is the odd man out. It’s a fortress hub where DL controls a majority of the gates, so they can scale down without worrying about a competitor backfilling capacity, and can scale back up when ready (especially as Detroit O&D can be rocky, the airport relies a lot on connections to sustain its size). It’s surrounded by other hubs that handle traffic flows (even if it is not always ideal connection). It’s role as east US Asian gateway is basically useless in current circumstances. So it takes a brunt of the cuts.


Here i just think DTW is not the best eastern RJ hub for the likes of BTV and ABE. DTW is good at many things, but that role is unnecessary.
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 2343
Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:45 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Ok…. On the flip side from the current status quo in august 2022…

This represents a reduction of 5 CRJ200 flights per day from DTW….250 seats.

ABE, BTV, CID, DAY, FWA are currently only operating at 1x per day each. The capacity/ frequency was never restored post pandemic.

DL upgauging a few other routes here or there or adding another mainline flight pretty much nets out the loss of seats from DTW.

It’s a bigger deal for the smaller markets than DTW


Actually in the case of CID last summer was 4x daily which was back to pre covid capacity. Not sure of the others. Last summers schedule here at CID for Delta:

Delta-
Atlanta 2x a day with the Boeing 717 coming back for morning flight other flight in evening is on CRJ900
Minneapolis goes to 4x a day -1 CRJ700,
3 CRJ200
Detroit also 4x a day all CRJ200



I guess I should say I’m not surprised. It looks like the flight shifted to MSP so that’s up to 3 a day. DTW was down to 1x a day not much you can really get places with that. Makes sense to add frequency to a nearby hub. So seat wise it will still be the same.
Atlanta is an Airbus and that flights doing well. MSP is down to 2x CRJ. Sad about the capacity an now city cut here with Delta but I guess it is what it is. Shame
To see a beautiful terminal like DTW so underutilized.
Last edited by CIDFlyer on Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 13657
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:47 pm

SESGDL wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Can you show a data source for that? I've seen data pointing to MSP and DTW being less than 50% O&D, more reliant on connecting traffic than ORD in particular.


Id like to see that data too. Im skeptical.


https://orlandoairports.net/site/upload ... 202112.pdf

This was the case before Covid and remains the case. Not sure why you’d be skeptical of this, all of DL’s hubs apart from ATL are majority O&D.

Jeremy

Keep in mind that is including all airlines that fly to DTW, it’s not just DL’s traffic. The other airlines will almost exclusively be DTW O&D.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 4144
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:48 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
If you check Google Flights, all these routes appear to be gone after the first week of October...

What is unique is that all these dropped routes still have service to another DL hub.

ABE-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)
BTV-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)
CID-DTW (4x daily Oct 2019)
DAY-DTW (4x daily Oct 2019)
FWA-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)

Other routes that I'd put on watch from DTW:
BHM/HSV/MDT-DTW down to 1x daily, GSO-DTW less than daily



All regional served from other airports & regional pilot shortage. So this is not significant. If it was major trunk routes with the number of flights they have it would be a blip in schedules.
 
SESGDL
Posts: 3191
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:49 pm

Polot wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Id like to see that data too. Im skeptical.


https://orlandoairports.net/site/upload ... 202112.pdf

This was the case before Covid and remains the case. Not sure why you’d be skeptical of this, all of DL’s hubs apart from ATL are majority O&D.

Jeremy

Keep in mind that is including all airlines that fly to DTW, it’s not just DL’s traffic. The other airlines will almost exclusively be DTW O&D.


What does that have to do with the data I posted? I never said DL’s operation was majority O&D. What you said is the case for every airline at its hubs. The data backed up what someone posted up thread that DTW and MSP are both majority O&D, which is not the case for airports like ATL, DFW and CLT.

Jeremy
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 13657
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:57 pm

SESGDL wrote:
Polot wrote:
SESGDL wrote:

https://orlandoairports.net/site/upload ... 202112.pdf

This was the case before Covid and remains the case. Not sure why you’d be skeptical of this, all of DL’s hubs apart from ATL are majority O&D.

Jeremy

Keep in mind that is including all airlines that fly to DTW, it’s not just DL’s traffic. The other airlines will almost exclusively be DTW O&D.


What does that have to do with the data I posted? I never said DL’s operation was majority O&D. What you said is the case for every airline at its hubs. The data backed up what someone posted up thread that DTW and MSP are both majority O&D, which is not the case for airports like ATL, DFW and CLT.

Jeremy

We are talking about it in the context of DL’s hub. Just because the airport as a whole is a majority O&D doesn’t mean DL’s hub is (all other airlines still make up about a third of DTW’s traffic). That is important when talking about shrinking DL’s hubs, because while airlines at DTW may grow to pick up O&D slack few will grow just to connect traffic at DTW (they will just try to steal that connecting traffic via their own hubs), especially with limited gate space available to them.

Potential competitive response is very much taken into account when an airline is determining where to make necessary cuts.
 
SESGDL
Posts: 3191
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:39 pm

Polot wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Polot wrote:
Keep in mind that is including all airlines that fly to DTW, it’s not just DL’s traffic. The other airlines will almost exclusively be DTW O&D.


What does that have to do with the data I posted? I never said DL’s operation was majority O&D. What you said is the case for every airline at its hubs. The data backed up what someone posted up thread that DTW and MSP are both majority O&D, which is not the case for airports like ATL, DFW and CLT.

Jeremy

We are talking about it in the context of DL’s hub. Just because the airport as a whole is a majority O&D doesn’t mean DL’s hub is (all other airlines still make up about a third of DTW’s traffic). That is important when talking about shrinking DL’s hubs, because while airlines at DTW may grow to pick up O&D slack few will grow just to connect traffic at DTW (they will just try to steal that connecting traffic via their own hubs), especially with limited gate space available to them.

Potential competitive response is very much taken into account when an airline is determining where to make necessary cuts.


I literally posted data to backup what someone said about which airports were majority O&D or not. Take your argument to someone else who agrees/disagrees. I posted the data because people asked for it. I said nothing of DL's hub O&D vs. connecting mix.

Jeremy
Last edited by SESGDL on Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
DLASFlyer
Posts: 482
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:06 pm

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:40 pm

Could Delta close Concourse B/C entirely and operate exclusively out of A at McNamara? The regional concourse was already partially demolished and I wonder if the rest will go.
 
SESGDL
Posts: 3191
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:49 pm

SESGDL wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Can you show a data source for that? I've seen data pointing to MSP and DTW being less than 50% O&D, more reliant on connecting traffic than ORD in particular.


Id like to see that data too. Im skeptical.


https://orlandoairports.net/site/upload ... 202112.pdf

This was the case before Covid and remains the case. Not sure why you’d be skeptical of this, all of DL’s hubs apart from ATL are majority O&D.

Jeremy


Can't find similar data for DTW, but MSP posts O&D and connecting percentages with individual airline stats showing DL's MSP operation is 58% O&D:

https://metroairports.org/documents/mon ... 022/direct

Jeremy
 
FWAERJ
Posts: 2847
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 1:23 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:49 pm

kavok wrote:
umichman wrote:
Not too surprising. The fact that they have flights to other hubs means they won't lose DL service entirely. If they cut DTW-SCE/ITH/ELM/BGM flights, they would have no DL service.


Starting in Mid October, ABE and FWA are both down to 2x daily RJ as the total DL service offered (both flights to ATL). That is borderline endangered species territory when it comes to DL metal.

The other aspect is that DLs scheduling at DTW is making connections very difficult on a lot of potential remaining routes. A pax may want to connect in DTW, and there may be a AAA-DTW flight and a DTW-BBB flight… but very often AAA-DTW-BBB is not possible (without a DTW overnight) because the flight times are poorly timed for DTW connections. This creates a death spiral situation where feeder flights don’t fill up, and receiving flights this experience lower load factors. It’s almost like DL is trying to make DTW connections unappetizing.


What RJ type for FWA-ATL?
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1919
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:05 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:53 pm

There's kind of a corporate travel paradox here. Corp travel is still down to some extent, which is what drives high yielding connections/O&D to these secondary markets. However resources aren't being spared to maintain "competitive" corporate positions in markets like BOS, LGA & LAX.

I don't pretend like I know more than top route planners, however as an outside observer this seems like another example of airlines operating with 2019 strategy/tactics in a 2022 business environment.
 
blockski
Posts: 871
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:30 pm

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:07 pm

SESGDL wrote:
Polot wrote:
SESGDL wrote:

What does that have to do with the data I posted? I never said DL’s operation was majority O&D. What you said is the case for every airline at its hubs. The data backed up what someone posted up thread that DTW and MSP are both majority O&D, which is not the case for airports like ATL, DFW and CLT.

Jeremy

We are talking about it in the context of DL’s hub. Just because the airport as a whole is a majority O&D doesn’t mean DL’s hub is (all other airlines still make up about a third of DTW’s traffic). That is important when talking about shrinking DL’s hubs, because while airlines at DTW may grow to pick up O&D slack few will grow just to connect traffic at DTW (they will just try to steal that connecting traffic via their own hubs), especially with limited gate space available to them.

Potential competitive response is very much taken into account when an airline is determining where to make necessary cuts.


I literally posted data to backup what someone said about which airports were majority O&D or not. Take your argument to someone else who agrees/disagrees. I posted the data because people asked for it. I said nothing of DL's hub O&D vs. connecting mix.

Jeremy


Yes, Kavok made the point implying that Delta's hub operations at DTW and MSP are majority O/D. The data you cited about the airport is interesting, but does not completely support the original claim.

Delta had about 70% market share at MSP and DTW, if my memory serves. Just assume that all of the other airlines are 100% O/D and Delta is the only airline making connections, then the Delta traffic at both hub airports is approximately 60% connecting and 40% O/D.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 4144
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:10 pm

kavok wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
kavok wrote:

Yep, DL shareholders need to see the airline try and generate less profits. Shifting fuller planes at higher fares (on BTV-DTW), to a 3x daily lower load factor route (BTV-LGA) helps accomplish this. Apologies for being salty, but let’s call it what it is. A bad decision for pax, and a bad decision for the company making $… but a good decision for ego.


Ahh yes shareholders definitely want DL to give up extremely valuable LGA rights so a competitor can come in with large planes and dilute fares and take share in a critical, high value market. This is a good decision for the company and has zero to do with ego.


Except… which competitor would actually do it (bring in a bunch of large planes into LGA)?

AA? The majority of their LGA flights are already RJs. AA could bring more large planes to LGA today if they wanted. They don’t.

UA? Seems like they’d be cannibalizing their EWR hub.

B6? Maybe, but it seems like they are inheriting a bunch of LGA slots from NK anyway.

Maybe the value for DL is simply that LGA slots are perceived to be valuable.


LGA is a slot restricted airport. Use it or loose it. Delta would not risk loosing slots they may need in 2 years. Everyone would bid on the slots. And remember just because Delta has a slot LGA-XXX does not mean another carrier would take the slot to fly the same route.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 7209
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:29 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
If you check Google Flights, all these routes appear to be gone after the first week of October...

What is unique is that all these dropped routes still have service to another DL hub.

ABE-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)
BTV-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)
CID-DTW (4x daily Oct 2019)
DAY-DTW (4x daily Oct 2019)
FWA-DTW (3x daily Oct 2019)

Other routes that I'd put on watch from DTW:
BHM/HSV/MDT-DTW down to 1x daily, GSO-DTW less than daily



All regional served from other airports & regional pilot shortage. So this is not significant. If it was major trunk routes with the number of flights they have it would be a blip in schedules.


Regional pilot shortage or not, doesn't change the impact.

You might think it is "not significant," to the people it impacts they probably feel the opposite.

Dropping 5 routes from one airport in one swoop is pretty big, especially after so many other routes have been dropped in the past couple years:
DTW-SMF
DTW-SJC
DTW-ERI
DTW-OKC
DTW-MLI
DTW-MHT
DTW-SJU
DTW-AVP
DTW-LSE
DTW-YOW
DTW-EVV
DTW-LIT
DTW-ORH
DTW-ANC (started/ended during 2021/2022)
DTW-OAK (started/ended during 2021/2022)

Other routes down to 1x/day in October , that were served 2x or more pre-covid (October 2019 comp).
DTW-CIU - now operates as tag flight (2x pre-covid)
DTW-ESC - now operates as tag flight (2x pre-covid)
DTW-CWA (2x pre-covid)
DTW-MQT (2x pre-covid)
DTW-PDX (2x pre-covid)
DTW-PLN (2x pre-covid)
DTW-BHM (3x pre-covid)
DTW-CHA (3x pre-covid)
DTW-ITH (3x pre-covid)
DTW-GSO (3x pre-covid)
DTW-MDT (4x pre-covid)
DTW-SCE (4x pre-covid)
DTW-SBN (5x pre-covid)

Not even operating SAV or PBI for most of October.
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 2343
Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:31 pm

Runway765 wrote:
This begs the question, is there really a need for two DL Midwest hubs anymore?


Really makes one think they don’t. As of now both hubs are around 325ish flights per day.

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