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LAXintl
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Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:47 pm

After multiple request for an update, below are listing for estimated aircraft current market valuation (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates also based on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.

Please be mindful the market still remains fluid, and pricing for some models is more theoretical than actual based on limited number of transactions, or large numbers of stored frames.

The TL;DR = narrowbody frame valuations are largely solidifying with many actually gaining value, while widebody valuations have broadly declined with excepction of most modern twins. Freighter values remain strong.

Pax
A220-100 - $22.5 - 33.4M, $145-240,000
A220-300 - $26.6 - 38.2M, $160-260,000
A319 – $5.3 - 31.8M, $45-200,000
A320 – $2.2 - 32.7M, $53-225,000
A320NEO - $29.0 - 50.2M, $205-350,000
A321 – $7.1 - 46.8M, $70-285,000
A321NEO - $39.5 - 58.9M, $270-372,000
A330-200 – $6.0 - 45.2M, $85-425,000
A330-300 - $4.8 - 55.3M, $85-470,000
A330-900 - $73.6 - 107.1M, $495-765,000
A350-900 - $68.7 - 148.4M, $485-1,000,000
A380 - $15.1 - 102.4M, $160-620,000
B737-700 - $5.0- 22.7M, $51-165,000
B737-800 - $6.4 - 35.2M, $76-232,000
B737-900ER - $13.3 - 33.2M, $115-245,000
B737MAX-8 - $31.9 - 50.2M, $200,000-345,000
B737MAX-9 - $34.9 -51.5M, $220,000-365,000
B777-300ER – $16.6 – 85.6M, $190-900,000
B787-8 - $39.2 - 97.5M, $300-700,000
B787-9 - $61.6 - 142.0M, $450-965,000
B787-10 - $102.3 - 154.0M, $635-1,060,000
CRJ700 – $3.7 – 12.8M, $49-120,000
CRJ900 - $5.0 – 16.9M, $65-140,000
Q400 – $3.0 – 16.0M, $50-140,000
EMB175 – $6.9 – 26.6M, $65-180,000
EMB190 – $7.1 – 22.8M, $72-175,000
EMB190E2 - $22.5 - 35.8M, $170-250,000
ATR-72 – $2.6 – 20.9M, $40-170,000

Freighter
A330F – $41.0 - 56.5M, $390-550,000
B744F – $15.1 - 35.6M, $220-400,000
B748F – $77.0 - 173.0M, $700-1,350,000
B763F – $22.9 - 76.0M, $225-580,000
B777F – $78.5 - 160.5M, $680-1,300,000

The information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuation estimates and is current as of June 2022.

Sources: IBA/ISTAT
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:38 pm

Thanks, quite interesting information. One can see the effect of high fuel prices, the NEO/Max values are still high with the CEO's dropping hard. The older wide bodies are not doing well, a A333 price range is below the A321NEO.
 
PhilipBass
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:56 pm

Thanks.
 
ScottB
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:30 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Thanks, quite interesting information. One can see the effect of high fuel prices, the NEO/Max values are still high with the CEO's dropping hard. The older wide bodies are not doing well, a A333 price range is below the A321NEO.


I don't think the numbers bear out what you're saying when we compare with the numbers from last year:

LAXintl wrote:
Pax
A220-100 - $23.6 - 33.0M, $150-230,000
A220-300 - $27.9 - 37.3M, $170-260,000
A319 – $3.6 - 28.4M, $50-200,000
A320 – $2.5 - 33.5M, $40-220,000
A320NEO - $30.7 - 48.0M, $200-310,000
A321 – $7.4 - 42.1M, $70-280,000
A321NEO - $41.5 - 56.0M, $240-360,000
A330-200 – $8.0 - 51.0M, $90-440,000
A330-300 - $6.0 - 58.0M, $90-480,000
A330-900 - $90.5 - 110.0M, $550-820,000
A350-900 - $77.0 - 149.0M, $450-1,030,000
A380 - $18.6 - 94.0M, $170-730,000
B737-700 - $3.2 - 20.1M, $45-210,000
B737-800 - $6.8 - 35.5M, $70-240,000
B737-900ER - $13.2 - 36.0M, $110-240,000
B737MAX-8 - $33.7 -45.8M, $200,000-290,000
B737MAX-9 - $36.5 -47.0M, $220,000-300,000
B767-300ER – $4.3 – 20.0M, $40-220,000
B777-300ER – $26.8 – 132.5M, $240-1,020,000
B787-8 - $47.8 - 100.5M, $290-650,000
B787-9 - $72.5 - 140.0M, $410-940,000
B787-10 - $104.0 - 138.5M, $610-1,030,000
CRJ700 – $4.3 – 14.5M, $60-140,000
CRJ900 - $5.4 – 20.5M, $60-170,000
Q400 – $3.0 – 21.0M, $50-160,000
EMB175 – $6.3 – 25.0M, $70-190,000
EMB190 – $7.5 – 25.5M, $80-200,000
EMB190E2 - $23.3 - 29.0M, $150-220,000
ATR-72 – $2.8 – 21.2M, $50-170,000


The lease rates for all the A32Xoeo models have stayed quite consistent, and the low end for the A320 has even moved up. Similarly for the 737, the movement in prices is a mixed bag; i.e the 73G purchase price range has gone UP although the top-end lease rate has gone down.

Now, one should consider that it's likely some of the oldest examples of the oeo/non-MAX which would have changed hands last year might instead be destined for the scrappers this year, but I'd argue that non-orphaned narrowbody types are still holding their value quite well. Even the E175 has gone up in purchase value, though lease pricing has softened a bit. But the non-E2 E190 is down due to its limited market and the CRJs and Q400 are all down, too.

For a type with a relatively modest order book, the decline in A339 values is concerning considering how new the global fleet is.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:24 pm

ScottB wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Thanks, quite interesting information. One can see the effect of high fuel prices, the NEO/Max values are still high with the CEO's dropping hard. The older wide bodies are not doing well, a A333 price range is below the A321NEO.


I don't think the numbers bear out what you're saying when we compare with the numbers from last year:

LAXintl wrote:
Pax
A220-100 - $23.6 - 33.0M, $150-230,000
A220-300 - $27.9 - 37.3M, $170-260,000
A319 – $3.6 - 28.4M, $50-200,000
A320 – $2.5 - 33.5M, $40-220,000
A320NEO - $30.7 - 48.0M, $200-310,000
A321 – $7.4 - 42.1M, $70-280,000
A321NEO - $41.5 - 56.0M, $240-360,000
A330-200 – $8.0 - 51.0M, $90-440,000
A330-300 - $6.0 - 58.0M, $90-480,000
A330-900 - $90.5 - 110.0M, $550-820,000
A350-900 - $77.0 - 149.0M, $450-1,030,000
A380 - $18.6 - 94.0M, $170-730,000
B737-700 - $3.2 - 20.1M, $45-210,000
B737-800 - $6.8 - 35.5M, $70-240,000
B737-900ER - $13.2 - 36.0M, $110-240,000
B737MAX-8 - $33.7 -45.8M, $200,000-290,000
B737MAX-9 - $36.5 -47.0M, $220,000-300,000
B767-300ER – $4.3 – 20.0M, $40-220,000
B777-300ER – $26.8 – 132.5M, $240-1,020,000
B787-8 - $47.8 - 100.5M, $290-650,000
B787-9 - $72.5 - 140.0M, $410-940,000
B787-10 - $104.0 - 138.5M, $610-1,030,000
CRJ700 – $4.3 – 14.5M, $60-140,000
CRJ900 - $5.4 – 20.5M, $60-170,000
Q400 – $3.0 – 21.0M, $50-160,000
EMB175 – $6.3 – 25.0M, $70-190,000
EMB190 – $7.5 – 25.5M, $80-200,000
EMB190E2 - $23.3 - 29.0M, $150-220,000
ATR-72 – $2.8 – 21.2M, $50-170,000


The lease rates for all the A32Xoeo models have stayed quite consistent, and the low end for the A320 has even moved up. Similarly for the 737, the movement in prices is a mixed bag; i.e the 73G purchase price range has gone UP although the top-end lease rate has gone down.

Now, one should consider that it's likely some of the oldest examples of the oeo/non-MAX which would have changed hands last year might instead be destined for the scrappers this year, but I'd argue that non-orphaned narrowbody types are still holding their value quite well. Even the E175 has gone up in purchase value, though lease pricing has softened a bit. But the non-E2 E190 is down due to its limited market and the CRJs and Q400 are all down, too.

For a type with a relatively modest order book, the decline in A339 values is concerning considering how new the global fleet is.


I agree with your comments regarding the A339. It's closest competitor in capacity is the 789 and its value has appeared to hold up better even though it has been on the market for quite a bit longer.
 
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Polot
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:26 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Thanks, quite interesting information. One can see the effect of high fuel prices, the NEO/Max values are still high with the CEO's dropping hard. The older wide bodies are not doing well, a A333 price range is below the A321NEO.

Keep in mind both the oldest and newest A333 is a lot older than the oldest and newest A321neo.

The last commercial pax A333 built was delivered 2.5 years ago (there were some older A333s ntu delivered last year or earlier this year). The newest A321neo is what, maybe a day old?
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:24 pm

Looking at the low price and lease rate range of the B777-300ER, I expect they will be sticking around for years to come. The A350-1000 is a more efficient & modern aircraft, but it is expensive (new) and hasn't been around long enough to be a factor on the used market.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:28 am

ScottB wrote:

For a type with a relatively modest order book, the decline in A339 values is concerning considering how new the global fleet is.


Ooh, are you suggesting the market might be pricing in some sort of risk of hiccup with 330neo production or ownership? :o
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:32 am

I didn't know that any sale-leasebacks had been done with the A220-100.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:46 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I didn't know that any sale-leasebacks had been done with the A220-100.


A ton have been done including 25 by Delta.

The A220 probably has one of the highest rates of airlines opting to remove the asset from their books via sale-lease back deals.
 
co38
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:50 am

Thank you for starting these threads!

Do you have any more freighter data?
MD-11 F and Boeing 757F?
Thanks again!
 
Hamlet69
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:24 am

Thanks as always for posting these, LAXintl.

I agree with the above that the drop in A339 pricing is concerning, although maybe not alarming (or even surprising). MH is surely getting a sweet deal for their forthcoming commitment!

The thing that really popped out to me, tho, is look at those 777F prices! More expensive than a generation-newer A350?! I knew that roughly a decade ago, the 777F was the most margin-rich aircraft Boeing (or Airbus) produced. But due to its age, I figured it had cooled. Guess not!

Hamlet69
 
ScottB
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:56 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
ScottB wrote:

For a type with a relatively modest order book, the decline in A339 values is concerning considering how new the global fleet is.


Ooh, are you suggesting the market might be pricing in some sort of risk of hiccup with 330neo production or ownership? :o


I don't think it's that, specifically; after all, even with a two-year virtual halt in deliveries, 787 values haven't been hit quite as hard, which is remarkable. The very oldest A339 sold hasn't yet hit the 4th anniversary of its delivery but apparently may have lost ~20% of its market value in the span of 15 months? I just think we're seeing disinterest in the A330neo and that's being reflected in the secondary/leasing market.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:01 pm

On the A330NEO comments, one of the issues is the model risks being viewed as an orphan without broad user base which likely places pressure on its valuation, in particular, mindful of its future resale.

co38 wrote:
Thank you for starting these threads!

Do you have any more freighter data?
MD-11 F and Boeing 757F?
Thanks again!


The MD-11 type is considered scrap value today. Its parts/engines are worth more than type itself.

For the 757, the feedstock valuation is $3.9-11.1M, $51-110,000
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:32 pm

Thanks LAXintl for the information, it's always appreciated and very, very interesting.

Is there anything for the A350-1000?
 
Chaostheory
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:42 pm

MoKa777 wrote:

Is there anything for the A350-1000?


115-165m with 700k-1.3m lease values.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:53 pm

Chaostheory wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:

Is there anything for the A350-1000?


115-165m with 700k-1.3m lease values.


Thank you Chaostheory!
 
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zeke
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:44 pm

ScottB wrote:
For a type with a relatively modest order book, the decline in A339 values is concerning considering how new the global fleet is.


These transaction costs are only part of the picture, we know from the Boeing results that they took a charge of over 4 billion on the 787, that is compensation and discounts going to 787 customers.
 
Natflyer
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:46 pm

These threads and updates by LAXintl are always highly informative. Thanks.
 
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Polot
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:54 pm

zeke wrote:
ScottB wrote:
For a type with a relatively modest order book, the decline in A339 values is concerning considering how new the global fleet is.


These transaction costs are only part of the picture, we know from the Boeing results that they took a charge of over 4 billion on the 787, that is compensation and discounts going to 787 customers.

That doesn’t really change the market value of planes.

It just means airlines “lucky” enough to get brand new 787s at a heavy discount stand to make quite a bit of money in sale-leaseback deals.
 
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zeke
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:43 am

Polot wrote:
That doesn’t really change the market value of planes.

It just means airlines “lucky” enough to get brand new 787s at a heavy discount stand to make quite a bit of money in sale-leaseback deals.


I was clear saying there was more to the transaction costs, industry knows the “airlines “lucky” enough” to get the rebates and discounts, and others have to compete with tickets on the same routes with those cheaper aircraft. This puts downward pricing pressure on any future 787 or A330neo sale.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:59 am

LAXintl wrote:
On the A330NEO comments, one of the issues is the model risks being viewed as an orphan without broad user base which likely places pressure on its valuation, in particular, mindful of its future resale.


That's one way to think of it - and one that I had in mind because the market is pretty good in pricing in that kind of risk - but your summary (thank you for posting!) doesn't reference how many transactions were reported nor the condition or age of the frames, so it's hard to separate prospective 'orphan' risk from lots of other things that may be going on.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:43 pm

Thank you for posting this always interesting information.

Believe the values reflect the reality that domestic/shorthaul travel has rebounded much more during the pandemic helping narrowbody aircraft while widebodies are still handicapped as long-haul demand still remains far below (per IATA 64.1%) of 2019 levels.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Sun Aug 14, 2022 3:41 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Thank you for posting this always interesting information.

Believe the values reflect the reality that domestic/shorthaul travel has rebounded much more during the pandemic helping narrowbody aircraft while widebodies are still handicapped as long-haul demand still remains far below (per IATA 64.1%) of 2019 levels.

I agree. However, it also should reflect the versatility of the newer, longer range, narrobody aircraft. The 737-800 was the range champion of the prior generation. The -8 MAX has about 700 miles more range and the A321NEO has even more range and the A321xLR far more still. Do you remember back when people had concerns about narrowbody range to Hawaii? It is now so normalized, why worry.

Do not get me wrong, I like flying on a widebody. I just flew LAX-JFK and back again on a 767 and recalled why that is such a popular aircraft for passengers. (Although the overhead bins were a trip back in time.)

The drop in 777-300ER and A333 pricing punctuates the demand shift. No longer worth $130M+ for new examples of the 77W, post #4 vs. the OP post clearly shows the widebody price drops. While the A320NEO/A321NEO shows narrowbody demand and MaX -8/-9 has a small discount, I believe this is due to examples competing with Boeing selling white tails driving down price about 5% (naturally, I speculate). The widebody price reduction has been... brutal.

Note: With no resale market, in my opinion A380 prices are notional pricing for financing based more on the airline's credit rating than anything else.

Lightsaber
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Sun Aug 14, 2022 4:50 pm

Thanks for the list.

The 787-9 is up, and now about 50% more than a 787-8. It used to be 40%.The 787-8 price has dropped.
 
milhaus
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:49 pm

Interesting numbers. So it means We can have an A320 for average 165000$ monthly which is 5516$ daily. With four legs each day and 75% utilization of Y180 cabin it counts 540 passengers a day. So just 10, 22$ per ticket, cheap.
 
SEAorPWM
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:09 am

lightsaber wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
Thank you for posting this always interesting information.

Believe the values reflect the reality that domestic/shorthaul travel has rebounded much more during the pandemic helping narrowbody aircraft while widebodies are still handicapped as long-haul demand still remains far below (per IATA 64.1%) of 2019 levels.

I agree. However, it also should reflect the versatility of the newer, longer range, narrobody aircraft. The 737-800 was the range champion of the prior generation. The -8 MAX has about 700 miles more range and the A321NEO has even more range and the A321xLR far more still. Do you remember back when people had concerns about narrowbody range to Hawaii? It is now so normalized, why worry.

Do not get me wrong, I like flying on a widebody. I just flew LAX-JFK and back again on a 767 and recalled why that is such a popular aircraft for passengers. (Although the overhead bins were a trip back in time.)

The drop in 777-300ER and A333 pricing punctuates the demand shift. No longer worth $130M+ for new examples of the 77W, post #4 vs. the OP post clearly shows the widebody price drops. While the A320NEO/A321NEO shows narrowbody demand and MaX -8/-9 has a small discount, I believe this is due to examples competing with Boeing selling white tails driving down price about 5% (naturally, I speculate). The widebody price reduction has been... brutal.

Note: With no resale market, in my opinion A380 prices are notional pricing for financing based more on the airline's credit rating than anything else.

Lightsaber


:confused:

I thought the 752 had the highest range of the prior-generation NB's? Otherwise, wouldn't the 737-800 have been used on more thin TATL flights?
 
Adjani
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:11 am

Is there anything for the Base Value of 777-300ER?
 
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UPlog
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Mon Aug 22, 2022 6:12 pm

Adjani wrote:
Is there anything for the Base Value of 777-300ER?


Did you look at the list posted ? :down:

LAXintl wrote:
B777-300ER – $16.6 – 85.6M, $190-900,000
 
Adjani
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:12 am

UPlog wrote:
Adjani wrote:
Is there anything for the Base Value of 777-300ER?


Did you look at the list posted ? :down:

LAXintl wrote:
B777-300ER – $16.6 – 85.6M, $190-900,000

Thank you for your reply.
What I'm interested in is what is the difference between CMV and IBA Base Value in the current market.
 
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UPlog
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 25, 2022 8:40 pm

CNBC has a story today about how tight supply is driving up leases on modern narrowbodies

Sky-high rents hit the aircraft market
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/25/sky-hig ... month.html
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Thu Aug 25, 2022 9:58 pm

UPlog wrote:
CNBC has a story today about how tight supply is driving up leases on modern narrowbodies

Sky-high rents hit the aircraft market
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/25/sky-hig ... month.html

The chart is worth looking at. Both new and 10 year old aircraft (NG, CEO) have almost improved to prior lease rates (5% to 10% less than prior peak). What it doesn't note is that 2009 build is now a 12 year old aircraft (the lease rate will be less as it is 2 years older).

This bodes well as from your link:
Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of Los Angeles-based Air Lease, said that the company’s lease extension rate is nearing a never-before-seen 90%, and that it usually runs about 65% to 75%.

I can believe it is never-before-seen as I haven't heard of lease retention of over 84% before. (Below 60% is bad, over 80% is a hot market if I recall correctly.)

That highlights the narrowbody recovery. As the article notes, supply chain, in particular titanium, is constraining production.

Lightsaber
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:25 pm

A look at what the stored aircraft market looks like currently.

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdFXPAYXkAA ... name=small

Narrowbody Lease rates rising

Image
https://i.ibb.co/K7MFTdX/ibavalues.png

Source: IBA
 
Adjani
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Summer 2022

Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 am

Thank you. Will the values other than New Aircraft recover as time passes, or will they not recover much from the ESG perspective? I'm interested in that.

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Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos