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Frode789
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[CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:37 am

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html

Very interesting article. Even though we have heard some brief mentions of some of this earlier, this was a far more extensive interview. He talks about the economics of it, how many full A380s they fly between LHR and DBX, traffic growth etc..

Some quotes:
"I was chuckling to myself, thinking 'Wait and see.' We started flying the A380 into Heathrow six times a day in October of last year, and we haven't had a [free] seat on any of them since."

"The math tells you that you need a big unit, much bigger than we're getting at the moment," he says.
"The biggest one will be the 777-9, whenever that comes to market, which in our configuration [will seat] 364 people against 484 on the A380s with our new premium economy. And it was 519 before, so you get where I'm coming from."
The "math" Clark refers to comes from demand for air travel, which he says was growing by about 4.5% per year before the pandemic.
Assuming that curve is recaptured, it would take just 10 to 15 years to see demand increase by half.

"Even with multiple 787s and A350s all busy flying around the world, I still don't get how you will pick up that growth curve," says Clark.
"Supply will be suppressed, demand will continue to grow, and when that happens prices rise, it's inevitable.

"If you take the A380s out of the frame by the mid-2030s, how are you going to make it work? Do we see massive upgrades of airfields or new airfields?
"At Heathrow, they can't even agree on the third runway. [Amsterdam's] Schiphol has just reduced the number of landings and takeoffs that they will allow. So, one wonders, how would this demand be accommodated?"

"Is it possible to redesign a new A380? Yes. Is it possible to lighten the aircraft? Yes. When they brought this aircraft to market, composites weren't really [widespread]," says Clark.
"Imagine a composite wing and a predominantly composite fuselage. Imagine engines that are giving you a 20 to 25% improvement compared to what you get today.
"So you get a lighter aircraft, far more fuel-efficient, which ticks all the boxes as far as the environmentalists are concerned."

"I've spoken to Airbus more than once," he says. "I think they're beginning to take it a little bit more seriously, but at the moment they are concentrating on their single aisle planes and the A350 line.
"I suspect people like [Airbus CEO] Guillaume Faury really would like to see something like this and recognizes what I could call the commercial imperative for it.
"But he is very much a technologist and will only do what his engineers and the technology will allow him to do."
 
Aseem747
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:33 am

777-9 is just a direct successor of one of the smallest planes in the current Emirates fleet after all. If it'll only seat 364 people then the 777-10 will still fall short of the A380 by a pretty big margin for a premium configuration. No new A380 means Emirates will have to change themselves significantly in the future as no other air frame except maybe 747 can truly replicate this airplane.
 
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Polot
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:37 am

Really more accurate to say Emirates just wants a new superjumbo, as they are basically proposing a plane completely different than the A380 other than size.
 
johns624
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:42 am

As Airbus found out with the original A380, it's risky building a new plane that's basically for only one airline. I think that there'd be even fewer other customers for a 380NEO than the first.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:53 am

The factory has already been repurposed:
https://paxex.aero/airbus-a321neo-toulo ... he%20globe.

Airbus currently produces the A321 at its Finkenwerder plant in Hamburg and the Mobile, Alabama Final Assembly Line. Adding the Toulouse site expands the company’s capabilities on the A321neo, an important growth step as the larger model rakes in more and more orders across the globe. The legacy A320 lines in Toulouse were built too small to handle the longer A321 fuselage length. By expanding into the space vacated by the A380 production closing down Airbus makes optimal use of its infrastructure and keeps the production flow moving.

EK is an interesting airline. It is my opinion that Airbus was so constrained investing so much in the A380 that they lost much strategic advantage. If Boeing hadn't botched the 787 (never count on the opposition to do poorly), they would have been to market earlier, cheaper, and thus able to do the 777X much sooner. I see a market for VLAs, just not for 15 years to launch, so 23 to 25 years until EIS.

Lightsaber
 
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eta unknown
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:59 am

Read between the lines: "... and we haven't had a (free) seat on any of them since" = EK did not give away any free seats on this sector. :-)
 
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frigatebird
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:07 pm

Polot wrote:
Really more accurate to say Emirates just wants a new superjumbo, as they are basically proposing a plane completely different than the A380 other than size.


Exactly. If you retain current wing size, you will need a larger fuselage. I don't think any airline besides EK would be interested. So that leaves the same fuselage with an optimized (smaller) wing. Even with all composite fuselage and wings, it would still require 4 engines. But:
Frode789 wrote:
(quoting TC from the article:)"Imagine engines that are giving you a 20 to 25% improvement compared to what you get today."

Not sure what he means with the engines of today. If it's the Trent-900, then yes, I guess so. If it's Trent-XWB, or even GE9X, is that realistic?

Still, one would indeed see an aircraft with far better economics than any current generation aircraft, or even a re-engined A350 or 787. But how much would development cost? Would EK share the risk? If not, I don't think Airbus would develop such an airplane. Most airlines would want to see such a new kind of A380 fly revenue service before considering an order IMHO.
 
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zeke
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:44 pm

frigatebird wrote:
But how much would development cost? Would EK share the risk? If not, I don't think Airbus would develop such an airplane. Most airlines would want to see such a new kind of A380 fly revenue service before considering an order IMHO.


If EK really want the aircraft, don’t see why they could not engage Airbus to design and certify it. Also don’t see why it could not be assembled in the UAE thus increasing employment in the UAE.

If they were to build it like the A350 with panels around a frame, it would making getting parts to the FAL easier than moving A380 sections around was. Moving the wings would still be a challenge.

Engine wise, they are basically asking for Ultrafan, sure RR would build that for a fee.
 
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Polot
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:54 pm

zeke wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
But how much would development cost? Would EK share the risk? If not, I don't think Airbus would develop such an airplane. Most airlines would want to see such a new kind of A380 fly revenue service before considering an order IMHO.


If EK really want the aircraft, don’t see why they could not engage Airbus to design and certify it. Also don’t see why it could not be assembled in the UAE thus increasing employment in the UAE.

If they were to build it like the A350 with panels around a frame, it would making getting parts to the FAL easier than moving A380 sections around was. Moving the wings would still be a challenge.

Engine wise, they are basically asking for Ultrafan, sure RR would build that for a fee.

Because EK often likes to talk the talk, but doesn’t walk the walk when it comes time to put money where their mouth is.

They want a new plane, but EK does not want to spend the billions your suggestion would take. They want Airbus to spend those billions.
 
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flee
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:00 pm

EK won't need such a big aircraft if they had multiple hubs. Then their routes will not only radiate from DXB but also from its other hubs. The other thing is that how confident are we that airports will run out of slots? We have been talking about this since Airbus conceived the idea of the A380 and most airports are still OK with slots. Airbus may be better off designing something the size of the A332 for short to medium haul flights. That way, aircraft the size of B737s and A320s will be doing fewer flights - confined only to thin routes. If EK wants to keep DXB as their only hub, and they need a 500-600 seater, they will have to commission the aircraft themselves.
 
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zeke
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:03 pm

Polot wrote:

They want a new plane, but EK does not want to spend the billions your suggestion would take. They want Airbus to spend those billions.


What would they cost to buy $275 million a copy ? 100 units ? Not exactly pocket change.
 
texl1649
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:10 pm

It will be interesting to see if inflation/very high sustained energy costs does drive down air travel vs. that expectation/hope for 4.5 percent year over year growth, over the next 10 years.

“Green” fuels won’t make flying any cheaper, either, and then we will see a demographic drop of young adults (20-40) in Europe/China, and very likely the US/North America as well. I don’t think his optimism about mid term demand is correct, basically.

Finally, certifying an all-new super jumbo, after the 748/A380 lost piles of money for both mfg’s, as China shifts away from ordering western aircraft, and the FAA/EASA have ‘adjusted’ to the new world post-Max of certification/regulatory changes, would necessarily take at least twice as long and cost 4 times as much as the A380 took to design/test/certify/deliver. I kinda think Airbus, and certainly Boeing, have other places they’d like to invest the $12-20 billion this would cost, to deliver frames to EK in 10 years. The A380 was very likely the last quad tube-wings that will be built.
 
3D101CA
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:21 pm

I doubt we will see a new A380 model ever be built. If only one customer is asking for it, that is unlikely anything that will lead to a new project.
 
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Polot
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:27 pm

zeke wrote:
Polot wrote:

They want a new plane, but EK does not want to spend the billions your suggestion would take. They want Airbus to spend those billions.


What would they cost to buy $275 million a copy ? 100 units ? Not exactly pocket change.

$275 million a copy does not equal $275 million contributed to development cost a copy.

If Airbus is opening new FAL line in UAE and designing new plane for it primarily just for EK I would expect they would want EK to take on some of the costs upfront instead of having Airbus eat all of it and hope that EK orders and takes delivery enough at high prices to fully pay them back. In such a scenario EK would get a cut of revenue from any frames sold to other airlines.

If you think EK could currently convince Airbus and RR to make a new A380 while shouldering zero of the financial risk we wouldn’t be having this discussion because we would be talking about the upcoming A380neo that EK desperately wanted a few years ago.
Last edited by Polot on Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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MillwallSean
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:35 pm

He makes lots of good points. However those points, and i agree with them all, doesn't make a strong enough business-case for the aircraft to be produced. Most of the world doesn't need the plane. Does it stimulate growth, absolutely, does it help reduce airfares absolutely but sadly for us consumers and enthusiasts there aren't enough airlines with EK business model.

Sadly he is probably right in the fact that airfares will rise due to the obvious constraints at the major airports.
In the developed world, permits etc for new airports takes decades and currently in most western countries at least there is pressure on the industry to become environmentally friendlier.

Personally I think both Airbus and Boeing has become dull. They have lost their visions and are just producing what they know works, their Corolla and Camry so to speak. We need a market disruptor to enter the scene, light the fire under the incumbents and set us on a fast development path again. This duopoly situation is bad for everyone and leads to very little innovation.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:55 pm

zeke wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
But how much would development cost? Would EK share the risk? If not, I don't think Airbus would develop such an airplane. Most airlines would want to see such a new kind of A380 fly revenue service before considering an order IMHO.


If EK really want the aircraft, don’t see why they could not engage Airbus to design and certify it. Also don’t see why it could not be assembled in the UAE thus increasing employment in the UAE.

If they were to build it like the A350 with panels around a frame, it would making getting parts to the FAL easier than moving A380 sections around was. Moving the wings would still be a challenge.

Engine wise, they are basically asking for Ultrafan, sure RR would build that for a fee.


How about this idea: instead of engaging Airbus, UAE starts its own aircraft industry. Employing the Airbus engineers that designed, built and certified the A380 (and learned lessons from it!), others with A350 experience, and possibly hiring from the aviation industry elsewhere in the world. And then build the aircraft.

As you say, with panels the logistics would not be as complicated as moving complete sections of aircraft over civilian roads and through villages. Airbus has Belugas to spare, Boeing Dreamlifters . Wings can be transported by ship. Didn't Boeing have the old 777 wings shipped from Japan by boat?

Yes, this will cost billions to set up. But IMO this would have a better chance of ROI than just pumping billions in a foreign aircraft industry. And if there is money to spare anywhere in the world, it's the Middle East. IMO this would be a far better way to spend money than giving away millions of dollars to middle aged, already way too rich golf players for just turning up at an uneventful tournament :duck: :flamed: (Yes I know this comes from another country).

I'm not joking though. If they really believe this has a good business case, then they should put their money where their mouth is.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:58 pm

It all depends on how the market will develop long term. It won't be long till environmental costs will be incorporated into the ticket price in aviation as well. All stakeholders will want to wait what that'll do with the market. If, and that's a big if, the market would still be growing and needing a plane like that in say 20 years than I wouldn't be surprised if it were a Boeing-Airbus joint effort as was originally planned for the A380. But count me sceptical.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:01 pm

zeke wrote:
Polot wrote:

They want a new plane, but EK does not want to spend the billions your suggestion would take. They want Airbus to spend those billions.


What would they cost to buy $275 million a copy ? 100 units ? Not exactly pocket change.


There certainly are airframe and engine builders who can give him what he wants. $30 Billion up front, in full, non-refundable.

It's the lunacy of asking for a frame for a few routes that are slot-constrained, the original economic madness that Airbus used to justify the A380. See a little route fragmentation (even just by the ME3), and CO2 reduction by taxes or passenger caps over the next 25 years, and the economic case just isn't there.
 
DartHerald
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:09 pm

I think we are all agreed that neither AB or BA will build such a plane unless they are seriously convinced that there will be reasonable market for it - probably 2-3x the standalone requirement, and the end product will probably be a 2-plane family with the smaller member being just out of range of a 777X stretch by perhaps 50 seats, and a larger one perhaps 100+ seats larger. But unless EY are prepared to make irrevocable commitments backed up with hard cash it is difficult to see it happening. Reengining A380s with Ultrafans is more feasible and more likely!
 
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frigatebird
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:13 pm

[quote="DartHerald" Reengining A380s with Ultrafans is more feasible and more likely![/quote]
But such an aircraft would be beaten by re-engined A350s and 787s....
 
NZ321
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:09 pm

MillwallSean wrote:
He makes lots of good points. However those points, and i agree with them all, doesn't make a strong enough business-case for the aircraft to be produced. Most of the world doesn't need the plane. Does it stimulate growth, absolutely, does it help reduce airfares absolutely but sadly for us consumers and enthusiasts there aren't enough airlines with EK business model.

Sadly he is probably right in the fact that airfares will rise due to the obvious constraints at the major airports.
In the developed world, permits etc for new airports takes decades and currently in most western countries at least there is pressure on the industry to become environmentally friendlier.

Personally I think both Airbus and Boeing has become dull. They have lost their visions and are just producing what they know works, their Corolla and Camry so to speak. We need a market disruptor to enter the scene, light the fire under the incumbents and set us on a fast development path again. This duopoly situation is bad for everyone and leads to very little innovation.


Most of the world doesn't need the plane now, for sure. However, just roll on 10-15 years and you can hear airlines screaming given the lack of investment in the infrastructure that will be need to support hub-bypass routes on the scale currently proposed by some airframe manufacturers. STC has a point here; we may consider that the A380 was too much plane for its time with the exception of EK and a handful of other operators. But let's not make the mistake of assuming that this is therefore going to be the situation in another 10-15 years with projected growth in air-travel. The single hub effect on a Dubai scale could well be the scenario at another 15-20 cities that currently can get away without the A380, once we reach 2035. So, I wouldn't dismiss STC's comments or label them as flawed in any way.
 
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proudavgeek
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:14 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The factory has already been repurposed:
https://paxex.aero/airbus-a321neo-toulo ... he%20globe.

Airbus currently produces the A321 at its Finkenwerder plant in Hamburg and the Mobile, Alabama Final Assembly Line. Adding the Toulouse site expands the company’s capabilities on the A321neo, an important growth step as the larger model rakes in more and more orders across the globe. The legacy A320 lines in Toulouse were built too small to handle the longer A321 fuselage length. By expanding into the space vacated by the A380 production closing down Airbus makes optimal use of its infrastructure and keeps the production flow moving.

EK is an interesting airline. It is my opinion that Airbus was so constrained investing so much in the A380 that they lost much strategic advantage. If Boeing hadn't botched the 787 (never count on the opposition to do poorly), they would have been to market earlier, cheaper, and thus able to do the 777X much sooner. I see a market for VLAs, just not for 15 years to launch, so 23 to 25 years until EIS.

Lightsaber


Also, EK had their chance to keep the A380 line alive by putting an order for A380 "neo" when Airbus was desperate for new orders. EK did not act at that time so now its all too-little-too-late. Airbus has moved on from A380 and finding much more success and $$ with A350 and A320/321 NEO-LR-XLR etc..

Sad that we will not likely see any new A380s. Flew one from JFK-DXB-JFK and it was worth the ticket price and then some...
 
jetlaggedAF
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:26 pm

It makes sense only for EK and maybe BA because of slot constraints. I do not know if it makes sense for Airbus to restart the line and invest in an incremental upgrade. If it was an all new plane, yeah thats not going to work. However, given the existing A380 platform some sort of re engining and composite upgrade might not be too heavy a lift and could end up being profitable at 150-200 planes. Open fan is a long way from market but maybe some sort of mixed setup could work - two conventional smaller trents paired to two larger ultrafans from the A350 neo where all 4 engines are only used for takeoff and the ultrafans operate the plane as a twinjet for the rest of the flight could deliver the sorts of efficiency improvements that make this work.
 
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william
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:29 pm

Its situations like this that allow room for a much needed third competitor. Will it come from China? Or maybe a derivative from a future Defense C5 replacement ( Of course EK would have discussions with Lockheed or Northrop). Who knows, but there is about to be a vacuum in the large VLA space, and some may fill it other than Airbus or Boeing.
 
airbazar
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:37 pm

flee wrote:
EK won't need such a big aircraft if they had multiple hubs.

They don't need multiple hubs. They just need to move to DWC.
He keeps referring to LHR to distract from the fact that DXB is well over capacity and that's the only reason EK needs A380's. But his bosses aren't willing to spend money to develop DWC. If EK replaces all of their A380's with 777's or A350's they will need a lot more slots at DXB and those slots simply don't exist. That's his biggest problem, not LHR.
 
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AngelsDecay
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:57 pm

3D101CA wrote:
I doubt we will see a new A380 model ever be built. If only one customer is asking for it, that is unlikely anything that will lead to a new project.


Back in the day the SP was almost created to fulfill PA and SAA desires...ok, those were the days...
 
N292UX
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:59 pm

Got some bad news for you, Tim.

777X is probably the closest thing you’re gonna get to an A380. It’s pretty much a dead horse here but worth bringing up again - 4 engine aircraft are done. Unless Airbus somehow makes an A380 with 2 engines which won’t be happening period. His best chance at anything remotely close is Boeing launching the 777-10X.
 
texl1649
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:01 pm

william wrote:
Its situations like this that allow room for a much needed third competitor. Will it come from China? Or maybe a derivative from a future Defense C5 replacement ( Of course EK would have discussions with Lockheed or Northrop). Who knows, but there is about to be a vacuum in the large VLA space, and some may fill it other than Airbus or Boeing.


The USAF is seeking a nominally non-stealthy (with commercial derivatives to be planned/factored into selection) large BWB type of aircraft, but this is to be a 767/A330 sized vessel I believe. Please note this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1475177

Something along the lines of the LM hybrid wing body would make sense there, but again nothing in the realm of a C-5M/A380 replacement size is really contemplated by this very early/young program. I for one hope to see some sort of ideas about a dual application (civil/military) BWB aircraft from the big vendors in the next year or so, if in fact this program advances and the goal is to get it airborne by 2026 (which in development speak nowadays is maybe just a code word for 2032 or so). An HWB with 3 CFM-style open rotor engines (and very substantive carbon fiber construction) up high would be quite interesting from a commercial perspective, imho.

Now, if that happens, and it is sized around an A333/A339, a ‘big brother’ would I imagine be conceivable commercially. The real question to me is if Airbus might partner in such a project with LM?
 
DartHerald
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:06 pm

frigatebird wrote:
[quote="DartHerald" Reengining A380s with Ultrafans is more feasible and more likely!

But such an aircraft would be beaten by re-engined A350s and 787s....[/quote]

But they wouldn't give him the number of seats that he wants, as he wants the larger number in a single frame. If he could just fly more and more TA planes he wouldn't have a problem! Also a eliminating second set of crew (around 16 people?) would help to close the cost gap considerably.
 
mig17
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:16 pm

Tim had a chance to make a deal with Airbus and Rolls-Royce 10 years ago. Sign some LOI for 100 A380 neo while buying current gen A380 equiped with RR and build a fleet of A350 also with RR to soften the deal.

Instead he chose to cancel 70 A350 by swaping them to 35 A380 and ordered 150 777X from Boeing with GE ... and he lobbyed for A380neo without commiting to anything.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:19 pm

airbazar wrote:
flee wrote:
EK won't need such a big aircraft if they had multiple hubs.

They don't need multiple hubs. They just need to move to DWC.
He keeps referring to LHR to distract from the fact that DXB is well over capacity and that's the only reason EK needs A380's. But his bosses aren't willing to spend money to develop DWC. If EK replaces all of their A380's with 777's or A350's they will need a lot more slots at DXB and those slots simply don't exist. That's his biggest problem, not LHR.

So, AMS becoming more and more slot constrained is due to EK staying in DXB?
 
Vicenza
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:33 pm

Polot wrote:
Because EK often likes to talk the talk, but doesn’t walk the walk when it comes time to put money where their mouth is.


What airline from anywhere ever does?
 
nickya340
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:37 pm

747-8? I know it’s old but there’s more capacity than a 777X.
 
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sassiciai
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:51 pm

I find that some earlier posters here are reading too literally about a new "A380", built in the same shed as the earlier one, using slightly updated technology from current aircraft in production. Also, the very stupid assertion that all aircraft going forward will only ever have 2 engines! Now that is real tunnel vision at work!

What STC is talking about is an aircraft of A380 proportions, not a reworked actual A380, almost certainly a new aircraft. Both Airbus and Boeing have corporate experience building VLAs (but I don't know how much retained experience there is in either house) that would be useful in designing&building a new VLA, powered with whatever engine technology makes the most sense when the aircraft is designed. If that requires 8 electric or hybrid engines, go for it. Or 2 Rollers and 4 electric ones. Let's not constrain the future by the limits of today's technology! And certainly not the "2 engines max" refrain that irritates me every time I read it!

Emirates chose not to order A380neo, because in its opinion, it was not good enough. Now, he is beginning to outline what might be good enough! I for one think he is right!
 
jbs2886
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 5:06 pm

The market seems to disagree. And as others have noted, a (small) number of very important routes where this capacity may be needed just can't justify development. It is his problem to find solutions, just like I think KLM will find solutions with AMS (e.g., moving Transavia to Rotterdam, etc.)
 
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Matt6461
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 5:24 pm

Zeke wrote:
If EK really want the aircraft, don’t see why they could not engage Airbus to design and certify it


Same reason EK's appetite for the A380NEO didn't justify a ~$5bn program cost, except this program would cost >$25bn.

Zeke wrote:
Engine wise, they are basically asking for Ultrafan, sure RR would build that for a fee.


The article only discusses Open Fan. Which makes no sense because Open Fan doesn't work at speeds typical for longhaul widebodies.

Zeke wrote:
What would they cost to buy $275 million a copy ? 100 units ? Not exactly pocket change.


Do a bit of math from Airbus' side. What's per frame profit? $50mil? Selling 100 of those gets you $5bn, or ~20% of project cost before time discounting - probably 10% after discounting.

Polot wrote:
If you think EK could currently convince Airbus and RR to make a new A380 while shouldering zero of the financial risk we wouldn’t be having this discussion because we would be talking about the upcoming A380neo that EK desperately wanted a few years ago.


Exactly.

Taxis645 wrote:
It all depends on how the market will develop long term. It won't be long till environmental costs will be incorporated into the ticket price in aviation as well. All stakeholders will want to wait what that'll do with the market. If, and that's a big if, the market would still be growing and needing a plane like that in say 20 years than I wouldn't be surprised if it were a Boeing-Airbus joint effort as was originally planned for the A380. But count me sceptical.


My bottom line after analyzing this problem over the years: Yes, a VLA would be successful if it avoided the A380's strategic incompetence. But its success would threaten too many existing programs, and the business models of too many OEM customers (airlines) to make sense for Airbus or Boeing. If it's to be built, China or a new entrant (e.g. Lockheed or SpaceX) would have to build it.
 
USAirKid
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:30 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if it were a Boeing-Airbus joint effort as was originally planned for the A380. But count me sceptical.


Do you have a source that the A380 was originally a Boeing-Airbus joint effort?

Given that Boeing had the 747 and 777 at the time, I don’t see how they’d want to get involved with the A380.
 
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Polot
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:38 pm

USAirKid wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if it were a Boeing-Airbus joint effort as was originally planned for the A380. But count me sceptical.


Do you have a source that the A380 was originally a Boeing-Airbus joint effort?

Given that Boeing had the 747 and 777 at the time, I don’t see how they’d want to get involved with the A380.

The A3XX/A380 was never a Boeing-Airbus joint project. McDonnell Douglas and Airbus considered a joint venture in the late 80s/early 90s but nothing ever came out of that and Airbus ended up with their A3XX project and MD their similar MD-12 project.
 
Flyglobal
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:59 pm

How about a 12 abreast A350 style plane (A360) with ultrafan engines.
Made in a JW between airbus, emirates and eventually others.

Just an idea.
 
strfyr51
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:59 pm

MillwallSean wrote:
He makes lots of good points. However those points, and i agree with them all, doesn't make a strong enough business-case for the aircraft to be produced. Most of the world doesn't need the plane. Does it stimulate growth, absolutely, does it help reduce airfares absolutely but sadly for us consumers and enthusiasts there aren't enough airlines with EK business model.

Sadly he is probably right in the fact that airfares will rise due to the obvious constraints at the major airports.
In the developed world, permits etc for new airports takes decades and currently in most western countries at least there is pressure on the industry to become environmentally friendlier.

Personally I think both Airbus and Boeing has become dull. They have lost their visions and are just producing what they know works, their Corolla and Camry so to speak. We need a market disruptor to enter the scene, light the fire under the incumbents and set us on a fast development path again. This duopoly situation is bad for everyone and leads to very little innovation.

you cam always go to Anatov. They built the AN-225 so they're big into Large airplanes. then? you only have to figure out? Where you can fly it!
 
strfyr51
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:15 pm

frigatebird wrote:
zeke wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
But how much would development cost? Would EK share the risk? If not, I don't think Airbus would develop such an airplane. Most airlines would want to see such a new kind of A380 fly revenue service before considering an order IMHO.


If EK really want the aircraft, don’t see why they could not engage Airbus to design and certify it. Also don’t see why it could not be assembled in the UAE thus increasing employment in the UAE.

If they were to build it like the A350 with panels around a frame, it would making getting parts to the FAL easier than moving A380 sections around was. Moving the wings would still be a challenge.

Engine wise, they are basically asking for Ultrafan, sure RR would build that for a fee.


How about this idea: instead of engaging Airbus, UAE starts its own aircraft industry. Employing the Airbus engineers that designed, built and certified the A380 (and learned lessons from it!), others with A350 experience, and possibly hiring from the aviation industry elsewhere in the world. And then build the aircraft.

As you say, with panels the logistics would not be as complicated as moving complete sections of aircraft over civilian roads and through villages. Airbus has Belugas to spare, Boeing Dreamlifters . Wings can be transported by ship. Didn't Boeing have the old 777 wings shipped from Japan by boat?

Yes, this will cost billions to set up. But IMO this would have a better chance of ROI than just pumping billions in a foreign aircraft industry. And if there is money to spare anywhere in the world, it's the Middle East. IMO this would be a far better way to spend money than giving away millions of dollars to middle aged, already way too rich golf players for just turning up at an uneventful tournament :duck: :flamed: (Yes I know this comes from another country).

I'm not joking though. If they really believe this has a good business case, then they should put their money where their mouth is.

Unfortunately for them? They'd have to IMPORT the skills to build said airplane, and even then? They would be hard pressed to get the technology transfers they would need to NOT infringe on and Boeing or Airbus patents. I worked with the Airbus at United and saw up close how Airbus sis system workarounds and even Hardware workarounds with their AMS hardware to not infringe on MS and NAS hardware standards Owned by BOEING. People never think about stuff like that. Airbus had to build units to do the same job as Boeing but they had to in many cases combine 2 units in a single package to not infringe on what Boeing was building. Would Boeing or Airbus license their technology? Would you?
 
USAirKid
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:54 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
zeke wrote:

If EK really want the aircraft, don’t see why they could not engage Airbus to design and certify it. Also don’t see why it could not be assembled in the UAE thus increasing employment in the UAE.

If they were to build it like the A350 with panels around a frame, it would making getting parts to the FAL easier than moving A380 sections around was. Moving the wings would still be a challenge.

Engine wise, they are basically asking for Ultrafan, sure RR would build that for a fee.


How about this idea: instead of engaging Airbus, UAE starts its own aircraft industry. Employing the Airbus engineers that designed, built and certified the A380 (and learned lessons from it!), others with A350 experience, and possibly hiring from the aviation industry elsewhere in the world. And then build the aircraft.

As you say, with panels the logistics would not be as complicated as moving complete sections of aircraft over civilian roads and through villages. Airbus has Belugas to spare, Boeing Dreamlifters . Wings can be transported by ship. Didn't Boeing have the old 777 wings shipped from Japan by boat?

Yes, this will cost billions to set up. But IMO this would have a better chance of ROI than just pumping billions in a foreign aircraft industry. And if there is money to spare anywhere in the world, it's the Middle East. IMO this would be a far better way to spend money than giving away millions of dollars to middle aged, already way too rich golf players for just turning up at an uneventful tournament :duck: :flamed: (Yes I know this comes from another country).

I'm not joking though. If they really believe this has a good business case, then they should put their money where their mouth is.

Unfortunately for them? They'd have to IMPORT the skills to build said airplane, and even then? They would be hard pressed to get the technology transfers they would need to NOT infringe on and Boeing or Airbus patents. I worked with the Airbus at United and saw up close how Airbus sis system workarounds and even Hardware workarounds with their AMS hardware to not infringe on MS and NAS hardware standards Owned by BOEING. People never think about stuff like that. Airbus had to build units to do the same job as Boeing but they had to in many cases combine 2 units in a single package to not infringe on what Boeing was building. Would Boeing or Airbus license their technology? Would you?


This is helpful… but could you clear up the TLAs?

What does AMS, MS, and NAS stand for?
 
airbazar
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:04 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
airbazar wrote:
flee wrote:
EK won't need such a big aircraft if they had multiple hubs.

They don't need multiple hubs. They just need to move to DWC.
He keeps referring to LHR to distract from the fact that DXB is well over capacity and that's the only reason EK needs A380's. But his bosses aren't willing to spend money to develop DWC. If EK replaces all of their A380's with 777's or A350's they will need a lot more slots at DXB and those slots simply don't exist. That's his biggest problem, not LHR.

So, AMS becoming more and more slot constrained is due to EK staying in DXB?

That's a distraction too and you fell for it. No. I'm saying that DXB being slot constrained is a much bigger problem for EK than AMS or any other airport being slot constrained.
EK has 1 daily A380 flight to AMS. They have over 50 from DXB (or had pre-pandemic). You tell me which airport running out of slots is a bigger problem for EK. They can always serve other airports in the Netherlands if they need more capacity (it's not like Amsterdam is the only city in the Netherlands), but that won't alleviate the congestion at DXB. Same thing in London. There are other airports besides LHR that they can serve but that won't solve the congestion problem at DXB. DXB is their biggest problem in the foreseeable future. They have alternatives for everything else except DXB.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:26 pm

Flyglobal wrote:
How about a 12 abreast A350 style plane (A360) with ultrafan engines.
Made in a JW between airbus, emirates and eventually others.

Just an idea.


That's never going to happen. 12ab requires ~24ft fuselage diameter; you can easily fit a double-deck in a 25ft-diameter fuselage. 80% more seats for 2-3% more fuselage drag and maybe 10% more fuselage weight.

Double-decker is the way to go; the A380's disastrous inefficiency prevents most people from realizing this.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:45 pm

Wouldn't be a whole lot cheaper to finish Dubai World Center to eliminate the slot constraints than buy 100 new whales?

Somewhere around the 77X size is where diminishing returns from going bigger rise fast. When airlines indicate that it is cheaper to fly two 779's compared to 1 A380 implies the efficiency per seat is not improved.

Somehow I doubt Airbus wants to do A380V2 at this stage, nor Boeing with a new 748 version.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5469
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:46 pm

USAirKid wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
frigatebird wrote:

How about this idea: instead of engaging Airbus, UAE starts its own aircraft industry. Employing the Airbus engineers that designed, built and certified the A380 (and learned lessons from it!), others with A350 experience, and possibly hiring from the aviation industry elsewhere in the world. And then build the aircraft.

As you say, with panels the logistics would not be as complicated as moving complete sections of aircraft over civilian roads and through villages. Airbus has Belugas to spare, Boeing Dreamlifters . Wings can be transported by ship. Didn't Boeing have the old 777 wings shipped from Japan by boat?

Yes, this will cost billions to set up. But IMO this would have a better chance of ROI than just pumping billions in a foreign aircraft industry. And if there is money to spare anywhere in the world, it's the Middle East. IMO this would be a far better way to spend money than giving away millions of dollars to middle aged, already way too rich golf players for just turning up at an uneventful tournament :duck: :flamed: (Yes I know this comes from another country).

I'm not joking though. If they really believe this has a good business case, then they should put their money where their mouth is.

Unfortunately for them? They'd have to IMPORT the skills to build said airplane, and even then? They would be hard pressed to get the technology transfers they would need to NOT infringe on and Boeing or Airbus patents. I worked with the Airbus at United and saw up close how Airbus sis system workarounds and even Hardware workarounds with their AMS hardware to not infringe on MS and NAS hardware standards Owned by BOEING. People never think about stuff like that. Airbus had to build units to do the same job as Boeing but they had to in many cases combine 2 units in a single package to not infringe on what Boeing was building. Would Boeing or Airbus license their technology? Would you?


This is helpful… but could you clear up the TLAs?

What does AMS, MS, and NAS stand for?

these are Hardware designations, MS (Military Standard) and NAS are military standards for Screws, Nuts, Rivets cables and Hydraulic tubing and connectors. AMS is the airbus and European equivalent to MS and NAS. Boeing even owns some If not many of the aluminum skin standards for airplanes. Before I retired, when an airplane needed a structural repair we immediately went to the Boeing Structural Repair Manuals to try and assess how we were going to fix it. We got the Specs we needed, then we consulted the Airbus Structural manuals and drew up the repair we needed and submitted that to Airbus. (After we erased any reference to Boeing)
9 out of 10 times? Airbus came back with an engineering approval as we submitted it. On the 10th time? They gave us a "no technical Objection" statement. Hell!
They Knew what we were doing and where we got the information. But? Since it fixed an Airbus? They probably could have cared Less. we had to do it that way because if we were to consult Airbus first on a Tuesday? They might get back to us Friday of the same week Before we could start the repair I don't know what they might have been doing? But I DO know we weren't going to wait 3 days for an answer. Hopefully? with American and Delta having a lot more Airbus airplanes?
they've gotten a LOT speedier in their Technical approvals. Especially since I know for a fact that both American and Delta have the same SRM's that we had from Boeing.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:51 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Unfortunately for them? They'd have to IMPORT the skills to build said airplane, and even then? They would be hard pressed to get the technology transfers they would need to NOT infringe on and Boeing or Airbus patents. I worked with the Airbus at United and saw up close how Airbus sis system workarounds and even Hardware workarounds with their AMS hardware to not infringe on MS and NAS hardware standards Owned by BOEING. People never think about stuff like that. Airbus had to build units to do the same job as Boeing but they had to in many cases combine 2 units in a single package to not infringe on what Boeing was building. Would Boeing or Airbus license their technology? Would you?


This is helpful… but could you clear up the TLAs?

What does AMS, MS, and NAS stand for?

these are Hardware designations, MS (Military Standard) and NAS are military standards for Screws, Nuts, Rivets cables and Hydraulic tubing and connectors. AMS is the airbus and European equivalent to MS and NAS. Boeing even owns some If not many of the aluminum skin standards for airplanes. Before I retired, when an airplane needed a structural repair we immediately went to the Boeing Structural Repair Manuals to try and assess how we were going to fix it. We got the Specs we needed, then we consulted the Airbus Structural manuals and drew up the repair we needed and submitted that to Airbus. (After we erased any reference to Boeing)
9 out of 10 times? Airbus came back with an engineering approval as we submitted it. On the 10th time? They gave us a "no technical Objection" statement. Hell!
They Knew what we were doing and where we got the information. But? Since it fixed an Airbus? They probably could have cared Less. we had to do it that way because if we were to consult Airbus first on a Tuesday? They might get back to us Friday of the same week Before we could start the repair I don't know what they might have been doing? But I DO know we weren't going to wait 3 days for an answer. Hopefully? with American and Delta having a lot more Airbus airplanes?
they've gotten a LOT speedier in their Technical approvals. Especially since I know for a fact that both American and Delta have the same SRM's that we had from Boeing.
I think you mean ABS or AIMS and not AMS for the Airbus standard?
https://www.pccaero.com/quality/adi/740 ... NC-OlU5N_Q
 
DartHerald
Posts: 256
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:08 pm

Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:20 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
Flyglobal wrote:
How about a 12 abreast A350 style plane (A360) with ultrafan engines.
Made in a JW between airbus, emirates and eventually others.

Just an idea.


That's never going to happen. 12ab requires ~24ft fuselage diameter; you can easily fit a double-deck in a 25ft-diameter fuselage. 80% more seats for 2-3% more fuselage drag and maybe 10% more fuselage weight.

Double-decker is the way to go; the A380's disastrous inefficiency prevents most people from realizing this.



An obvious disadvantage of a double decker is that the hold becomes relatively smaller in relation to the passenger accommodation and a greater proportion of the available space is required for baggage. I seem to recall that in your many posts berating the A380 you routinely drew attention to its lack of freight capacity yet here you are advocating another double deck design!
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11437
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:49 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Wouldn't be a whole lot cheaper to finish Dubai World Center to eliminate the slot constraints than buy 100 new whales?

Somewhere around the 77X size is where diminishing returns from going bigger rise fast. When airlines indicate that it is cheaper to fly two 779's compared to 1 A380 implies the efficiency per seat is not improved.

Somehow I doubt Airbus wants to do A380V2 at this stage, nor Boeing with a new 748 version.


Do you recall Qantas saying it was cheaper to fly 2x 787s than one A380?

London's long-haul/large jet capacity planning has been dysfunctional for decades and there's no solution in sight. They won't be dropping 777Xs in Luton or London City any time soon (if they do, it will be quite a spectacle), but DWC fixes the DXB problem. If you need $30 Billion in development and CapEx to fix such a narrow problem you've asked the wrong question.
 
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zeke
Posts: 17398
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Re: [CNN interview 12/8] Emirates wants Airbus to build a new version of A380

Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:50 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
Hardware workarounds with their AMS hardware to not infringe on MS and NAS hardware standards Owned by BOEING.


This is utter hogwash, these standards are not owned by Boeing, they are in the public domain. In reality Airbus tends to do everything metric, and Boeing uses a mixture of imperial and metric. The standards you refer to date back to WW2, you can only get patent protection at best for around 15 years. The standards you mentioned are in the public domain and not protected. Any hardware manufacturer can make parts that conform to that standard. In reality Boeing and Airbus use the same suppliers for their fasteners.

AN- ARMY-NAVY specification series started in the early 1940s as a means to standardize military items for World War II. Mostly canceled in the 1950s, a few have survived to only a few years ago, AN3-AN20 bolt is one of the longest lived specs.

NAS- National Aerospace Standards, started in 1941 is handled by the Aerospace Industries Association a group of aerospace companies. The NAS series is best known for its state-of-the-art, high strength, precision fasteners. In addition to all types of screws, nuts, and rivets, NAS standards define high pressure hose, electrical connectors, splices and terminations, rod end bearings, and many other types of hardware and components.

MS- Military standard started around the 1950s and for the most part replaced the AN hardware series. However, a few of the AN standards have stayed around. The MS series was canceled in 1994 by the Secretary of Defense, at the request of contractors in order to save money. However, many of the commercial companies used MS standard hardware for all there products. The cancellation caused the aerospace community many problems, and there was a rush to create new standards to replace the MS ones. Some of the following specs were the result.

NASM- approximately 500 military standards were converted by the NAS group to commercial specifications, but retain the original MS part number. The spec that defines the part is NASM and then the numerical portion of the MS number. Example, MS20426 rivet spec went to NASM 20426, but part number stayed MS20426.

AS- Aerospace Standards created by SAE International (originally Society of Automotive Engineers) some MS specifications were replaced by AS standards. Unfortunately, the part number changed to AS then the number of the MS part. MS21919 cushioned clamps changed to AS21919.

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