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B6SpiritofEWR
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:28 pm

I could see UA going with a big order to overshadow the cancellation of the A350 order. Something like 10 788s (to replace the high-j 767s), 20 789s, and 20 78Xs.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:39 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
LX015 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
The oldest 77W UA has is 5.5 years old so there is no reason even to attempt to entertain their replacement and it'll be at least 15 years before they would be without the 777 in their fleet.



Glad someone finally reminded everyone that the 77Ws are pretty much brand new and there's no need to even think about their replacements.

A small fleet of less than 20 77Ws doesn't make sense to keep if the 50+ 772s are retired and replaced. Mind you United only got the 77Ws from Boeing as 787 delay compensation.

Well UA has 22 77W(more than 20) and could easily acquire more young secondhand frames if demand warranted it. A fleet of 22 77W is not a small widebody fleet also the platform will have support for decades to come.
 
mig17
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:48 pm

JohanTally wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
LX015 wrote:


Glad someone finally reminded everyone that the 77Ws are pretty much brand new and there's no need to even think about their replacements.

A small fleet of less than 20 77Ws doesn't make sense to keep if the 50+ 772s are retired and replaced. Mind you United only got the 77Ws from Boeing as 787 delay compensation.

Well UA has 22 77W(more than 20) and could easily acquire more young secondhand frames if demand warranted it. A fleet of 22 77W is not a small widebody fleet also the platform will have support for decades to come.

22 77W is a small fleet relatively to the 180 787 or 100 787 and 80 A350 they will have in the 2030. It is possible the commonality with larger fleet will offset the cost of replacing these 77W early in terme of ROI.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:12 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
NW had an A330 order on the books for almost 15 years, when they announced they had chosen the A330 as the DC-10 replacement. One of the driving reasons they re-choose the A330 was the substantial deposits they would lose. Airbus treated it as a new order & celebrated & the original A330 order was subsequently cancelled.

NW had both the A330 & A340 on order before changing them over to an all A330 order.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:13 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Having a huge A350 fleet with a huge 787 fleet just doesn't sound great.

Actually, if both fleet are huge, then it is usually worthy economically.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:40 pm

Something to keep in mind regarding leisure flying. Many of the spectacular destinations in Europe and Asia are simply 'tourist saturated', and host countries and cities are saying 'no more'. Several are on my bucket lis,t some half dozen places I did not visit 15 years ago thinking I could do it later. I don't mind crowded, but simply refuse to go places that are mobbed. Even with my old standby of going during the shoulder seasons - and those places understandably are advising us 'not to go'.
 
Sancho99504
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:53 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
I do think UA will have no choice but to replace the 767s with 788s as there really isn’t another good alternative.

In many cases, the routes the 763s and 764s are operated on can probably take the small incremental capacity without trashing the economics of the route(s). Moreover, one can probably reasonably assume that in the absence of some type of one-off event, traffic on these routes probably grows a few percent year over year anyway so by the time they receive them, they may be just about right. Finally, I would have to also guess that the trip cost on the newer generation 788s has to be similar to that of the older generation 763s and 764s anyway?

While ideally you would want the next generation and most fuel efficient similar sized replacement, realistically speaking there just isn’t one on the market or in development

There shouldn't be any incremental costs other than for training additional pilots and procurement of more standard containers as all of the cans designed specifically for the 767 will become obsolete. The 787 burns 20% less fuel than 767, requires less maintenance not just because it's new and is more efficient all around. The additional seats that the 787 brings forward would be nothing but profit
 
ILikeTrains
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:30 pm

The 777-9 COULD have a place at United if routes that necessitate its payload and range rise up. If it can do SFO-SIN or ORD/EWR to India with full pax/bags and some belly cargo, and the demand is there, the case for their purchase is there. As for the 77W? Kind of an out there idea, but they would make an interesting HD domestic replacement to the 77A’s, especially on high density routes to Hawaii, Florida, and transcon. Probably would get more economy seats, but Polaris and PP will stick around, as they were well received during the PW 777 groundings.

Of course, the A350-900 would work for the scenario above too, just less uplift.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Something to keep in mind regarding leisure flying. Many of the spectacular destinations in Europe and Asia are simply 'tourist saturated', and host countries and cities are saying 'no more'. Several are on my bucket lis,t some half dozen places I did not visit 15 years ago thinking I could do it later. I don't mind crowded, but simply refuse to go places that are mobbed. Even with my old standby of going during the shoulder seasons - and those places understandably are advising us 'not to go'.


Agreed with this, I see international demand dropping in the coming decade. I don’t think United will be doing a 1-1 replacement for their 767s and 777s.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:51 pm

ILikeTrains wrote:
The 777-9 COULD have a place at United if routes that necessitate its payload and range rise up. If it can do SFO-SIN or ORD/EWR to India with full pax/bags and some belly cargo, and the demand is there, the case for their purchase is there. As for the 77W? Kind of an out there idea, but they would make an interesting HD domestic replacement to the 77A’s, especially on high density routes to Hawaii, Florida, and transcon. Probably would get more economy seats, but Polaris and PP will stick around, as they were well received during the PW 777 groundings.

Of course, the A350-900 would work for the scenario above too, just less uplift.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Something to keep in mind regarding leisure flying. Many of the spectacular destinations in Europe and Asia are simply 'tourist saturated', and host countries and cities are saying 'no more'. Several are on my bucket lis,t some half dozen places I did not visit 15 years ago thinking I could do it later. I don't mind crowded, but simply refuse to go places that are mobbed. Even with my old standby of going during the shoulder seasons - and those places understandably are advising us 'not to go'.


Agreed with this, I see international demand dropping in the coming decade. I don’t think United will be doing a 1-1 replacement for their 767s and 777s.


Doesn't the A350-1000 have the same payload range spec as the 777-9? I thought they were quite closely matched...
 
Cdydatzigs
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Re: United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:19 pm

F9Animal wrote:
I don't know what it is about the A350, but I think it's a majorly good looking bird. Would love to see it with UA colors!

Maybe from the main door aft, but the clumsy shape of the nose is what kills it for me. Love them or hate them, Boeing knows how to make a sexy nose.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:38 pm

Sancho99504 wrote:
There shouldn't be any incremental costs other than for training additional pilots and procurement of more standard containers as all of the cans designed specifically for the 767 will become obsolete. The 787 burns 20% less fuel than 767, requires less maintenance not just because it's new and is more efficient all around. The additional seats that the 787 brings forward would be nothing but profit


Unfortunately that is not the case. The 788 is mid single-digits better than a winglet 763 for same pax/cargo load at 4000nm. The 788 is 764 size with far more range & payload ability. The 20% savings is per pax, assumes full sellup of the extra capacity, and is only true on routes outside of the main operating range of the 763 where payload restrictions would prevent it going out full.

While the 788 is the next best thing if a XLR can't cut it, it's still not an ideal replacement for the 763 as its savings on typical 763 routes are quite small compared to the savings of a 789 vs a 772 on a ULH sector, yet the capex investment is similiar order of magnitude.
Last edited by Okcflyer on Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:39 pm

None of this is news. In a Scott Kirby interview posted in April, he told you exactly what was going to happen. The 350 engine contract is not a big deal, fleet complexity is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5XYgh ... FlightDeck

Comments on the 350 and fleet renewal start around 29:55
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:54 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
There shouldn't be any incremental costs other than for training additional pilots and procurement of more standard containers as all of the cans designed specifically for the 767 will become obsolete. The 787 burns 20% less fuel than 767, requires less maintenance not just because it's new and is more efficient all around. The additional seats that the 787 brings forward would be nothing but profit


Unfortunately that is not the case. The 788 is mid single-digits better than a winglet 763 for same pax/cargo load at 4000nm. The 788 is 764 size with far more range & payload ability. The 20% savings is per pax, assumes full sellup of the extra capacity, and is only true on routes outside of the main operating range of the 763 where payload restrictions would prevent it going out full.

While the 788 is the next best thing if a XLR can't cut it, it's still not an ideal replacement for the 763 as its savings on typical 763 routes are quite small compared to the savings of a 789 vs a 772 on a ULH sector, yet the capex investment is similiar order of magnitude.


I have never heard this at all. When the 788 was introduced Boeing promised a 20% better fuel burn per seat than the 763. I recall ANA stated they were getting slightly better than Boeing promised. If you have information contradicting this please, by all means post, but I have never seen it.


***EDIT*** The first six months of service, Rolls-Royce powered ANA aircraft were burning around 21% less fuel than the replaced 767-300ER on international flights, slightly better than the 20% originally expected, and 15–20% on domestic routes, while GE-powered Japan Airlines aircraft were potentially slightly better.[285] Other 787 operators have reported similar fuel savings, ranging from 20 to 22% compared with the 767-300ER.[286]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner
Last edited by ElroyJetson on Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MoreMiles
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:55 pm

With the 45 A359 on order, unless the price of these becomes part of a new negotiated deal, I cannot see the A359 in UA c/s. The 789 and 78x fleet is over 50 aircraft. So I can see the numbers increasing.
 
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Polot
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:59 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
There shouldn't be any incremental costs other than for training additional pilots and procurement of more standard containers as all of the cans designed specifically for the 767 will become obsolete. The 787 burns 20% less fuel than 767, requires less maintenance not just because it's new and is more efficient all around. The additional seats that the 787 brings forward would be nothing but profit


Unfortunately that is not the case. The 788 is mid single-digits better than a winglet 763 for same pax/cargo load at 4000nm. The 788 is 764 size with far more range & payload ability. The 20% savings is per pax, assumes full sellup of the extra capacity, and is only true on routes outside of the main operating range of the 763 where payload restrictions would prevent it going out full.

While the 788 is the next best thing if a XLR can't cut it, it's still not an ideal replacement for the 763 as its savings on typical 763 routes are quite small compared to the savings of a 789 vs a 772 on a ULH sector, yet the capex investment is similiar order of magnitude.


I have never heard this at all. When the 788 was introduced Boeing promised a 20% better fuel burn per seat than the 763. I recall ANA stated they were getting slightly better than Boeing promised. If you have information contradicting this please, by all means post, but I have never seen it.

Well he did say same pax/cargo load, which hurts the larger 788 as that means it is carrying empty seats/emptier cargo bins (or in a much more premium/spacious layout).
 
JohanTally
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:14 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
There shouldn't be any incremental costs other than for training additional pilots and procurement of more standard containers as all of the cans designed specifically for the 767 will become obsolete. The 787 burns 20% less fuel than 767, requires less maintenance not just because it's new and is more efficient all around. The additional seats that the 787 brings forward would be nothing but profit


Unfortunately that is not the case. The 788 is mid single-digits better than a winglet 763 for same pax/cargo load at 4000nm. The 788 is 764 size with far more range & payload ability. The 20% savings is per pax, assumes full sellup of the extra capacity, and is only true on routes outside of the main operating range of the 763 where payload restrictions would prevent it going out full.

While the 788 is the next best thing if a XLR can't cut it, it's still not an ideal replacement for the 763 as its savings on typical 763 routes are quite small compared to the savings of a 789 vs a 772 on a ULH sector, yet the capex investment is similiar order of magnitude.


I have never heard this at all. When the 788 was introduced Boeing promised a 20% better fuel burn per seat than the 763. I recall ANA stated they were getting slightly better than Boeing promised. If you have information contradicting this please, by all means post, but I have never seen it.

It's just not a real apples to apples comparison unfortunately. The 788 is 30t heavier OEW vs 763 and significantly larger so using the same passenger count is disingenuous. Right now the 788 is the smallest widebody aircraft being offered lengthwise although the A338 might have less floorspace. UA won't be able to find a direct replacement but they are quite familiar with what to expect as far as fuel performance with the 787 family.
 
JFKalumni
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:39 pm

Polot wrote:
The A350 is a better 77E replacement…for the longer 77E flights (Asia mostly). But with such a large 77E fleet they operate plenty of routes that can easily be replaced by 787s (choose any EWR/IAD-Europe route operated by 77E). I doubt a A359 is really necessary over a 787-9 or -10 to fly IAD-FRA for example.

So it becomes a question of number of routes (including current 787 routes) where A350 performance is required/outperforms 787, how many A350s that translate to, and if that is enough to justify adding to fleet.


Slight advantage for the A350 for:

EWR: JNB, CPT, BOM, HKG
IAD: CPT, NRT, PEK, PVG
ORD: HKG
LAX: SIN, BNE, SYD, MEL
SFO: SYD, SIN, BNE, MEL, MNL, BOM, DEL

Everything else is already covered by the 787’s. The 78X is perfect to replace the high density 777-200A especially on the long range domestic Hawaii missions. The biggest question right now is the upcoming weight increase. Can Boeing find enough performance inside the aircraft to allow all of UA’s flights to operate without a significant penalty?

Imo,

Either a 50/50 mix of A359 and A35K

70/30 mix of 789 and 78X with the 78X receiving the majority of the order.

Airbus deposits shifted towards other models such as the A220 to address the upcoming A319, A320 cycle not covered by the previous Max / 321Neo orders.
 
PHLspecial
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:03 pm

sfojvjets wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Last year when United ordered 70 A321 XLR didn't that replace the 45 A350-900 order ? Having a huge A350 fleet with a huge 787 fleet just doesn't sound great. Boeing needs to keep the United fleet full of 777-9 and 787 and make whatever deal needs to get made. AA probably needs another 787 order too, they current have over 40 on order.

SQ has a mixed fleet, EK has a mixed fleet, BA has a mixed fleet, LH has a mixed fleet, VS has a mixed fleet, all of them have on fleet or on order of the 787 and 350. DL will at some point buy the 787 and have the 350. UA will buy whatever A or B has the best package deal. I don't see the A350 going away for UA unless Boeing is willing to bend over backwards for UA.

All of the airlines that you mentioned except for BA have previously flown Airbus widebodies before ordering/flying their A350s. From memory, UA and BA are unique in having ordered the A350 while having flown only Boeing widebodies. And while BA has taken their 350s, UA is the one deferring their order.

It is clear that many of United's 772s need replacing... so if the A350 deal already satisfied the requirements as a replacement, then why does it keep getting deferred?

Also why would DL order the 787 when they have the A339 and existing A330ceo fleets already covering for 767 retirements... The 787 and A330neo for the most part occupy the same slice of the market.

Keep in mind that VS is the *only* airline to operate both the A330neo and the 787–and they have made some questionable fleet decisions considering how small their fleet and network is relative to the other carriers you mentioned. Further, regarding their 787s, it remains to be seen as to whether or not they will even stay in the fleet as they are either mostly or all leased. They aren't even planned to receive a cabin refit.

I would also add that JL didn't have an Airbus WB for quite some time before the A350 order. Maybe UA is waiting for another mtow boost which I believe the A359 will be at 283T or even higher by 2027.
UA might be following the JL strategy and have some A359 replacing the domestic 772 with a possible mix of A359 and A35K for international routes
 
Opus99
Topic Author
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:15 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
None of this is news. In a Scott Kirby interview posted in April, he told you exactly what was going to happen. The 350 engine contract is not a big deal, fleet complexity is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5XYgh ... FlightDeck

Comments on the 350 and fleet renewal start around 29:55

I don’t know how this interview isn’t more telling. He’s saying here that it’s either zero or 100+ for the A350. Meanwhile they have 45 on order.

Meaning there’s a good chance that 45 actually do not enter the fleet. He didn’t even say we will still take the 45.

He talks about fleet complexity costing a couple hundred million dollars a year.

He says they will reach out to Boeing and GE on replacing the 777s

And decide based on the economics of the deal.


Lets see
 
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Polot
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:22 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
UA might be following the JL strategy and have some A359 replacing the domestic 772 with a possible mix of A359 and A35K for international routes


You are not going to see UA order widebodies for domestic use.

You might see current planes shifted to domestic use in future (eg GE 77Es, older 787s) but UA is not going to buy expensive new 787s or A350s for domestic use. Inefficient use of CAPEX. I know they did in the past but that was a different airline in a different era.
 
fun2fly
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:42 pm

Polot wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
UA might be following the JL strategy and have some A359 replacing the domestic 772 with a possible mix of A359 and A35K for international routes


You are not going to see UA order widebodies for domestic use.

You might see current planes shifted to domestic use in future (eg GE 77Es, older 787s) but UA is not going to buy expensive new 787s or A350s for domestic use. Inefficient use of CAPEX. I know they did in the past but that was a different airline in a different era.


Domestic as in ORD>DEN, probably not. Domestic as in ORD>HNL, I beg to differ as UA has been doing Hawaii runs for years this way and has the pax and infrastructure ex-DEN/LAX/SFO/EWR/ORD/IAD to use 10 of these frames on Hawaii alone (plus 2-3 for GUM/NRT ex-Hawaii). Add in a couple of EWR>LAX/SFO transcons and you have a nice 15 unit subfleet. They even use these on EWR>SJU.

UA liked the current 77A fleet so well they were going to add in more ER frames to it and put in nose to tail IFE which should give us a hint that their replacement is likely part of this renewal. The only thing that has changed from that 77A addition/reconfig until now is UA did try out the Polaris to Hawaii to Covid. If that went over really well(paid for, not miles upgrade), then you might be right. I doubt it was that successful and there's enough spend $$ to make it happen. If it did, it would only be on a few select routes.
 
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Polot
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:46 pm

fun2fly wrote:
Polot wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
UA might be following the JL strategy and have some A359 replacing the domestic 772 with a possible mix of A359 and A35K for international routes


You are not going to see UA order widebodies for domestic use.

You might see current planes shifted to domestic use in future (eg GE 77Es, older 787s) but UA is not going to buy expensive new 787s or A350s for domestic use. Inefficient use of CAPEX. I know they did in the past but that was a different airline in a different era.


Domestic as in ORD>DEN, probably not. Domestic as in ORD>HNL, I beg to differ as UA has been doing Hawaii runs for years this way and has the pax and infrastructure ex-DEN/LAX/SFO/EWR/ORD/IAD to use 10 of these frames on Hawaii alone (plus 2-3 for GUM/NRT ex-Hawaii). Add in a couple of EWR>LAX/SFO transcons and you have a nice 15 unit subfleet. They even use these on EWR>SJU.

UA liked the current 77A fleet so well they were going to add in more ER frames to it and put in nose to tail IFE which should give us a hint that their replacement is likely part of this renewal. The only thing that has changed from that 77A addition/reconfig until now is UA did try out the Polaris to Hawaii to Covid. If that went over really well(paid for, not miles upgrade), then you might be right. I doubt it was that successful and there's enough spend $$ to make it happen. If it did, it would only be on a few select routes.

I’m not saying UA will eliminate domestic wide bodies. I said they are not going to buy brand new ones.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:49 pm

fun2fly wrote:
Polot wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
UA might be following the JL strategy and have some A359 replacing the domestic 772 with a possible mix of A359 and A35K for international routes


You are not going to see UA order widebodies for domestic use.

You might see current planes shifted to domestic use in future (eg GE 77Es, older 787s) but UA is not going to buy expensive new 787s or A350s for domestic use. Inefficient use of CAPEX. I know they did in the past but that was a different airline in a different era.


Domestic as in ORD>DEN, probably not. Domestic as in ORD>HNL, I beg to differ as UA has been doing Hawaii runs for years this way and has the pax and infrastructure ex-DEN/LAX/SFO/EWR/ORD/IAD to use 10 of these frames on Hawaii alone (plus 2-3 for GUM/NRT ex-Hawaii). Add in a couple of EWR>LAX/SFO transcons and you have a nice 15 unit subfleet. They even use these on EWR>SJU.

UA liked the current 77A fleet so well they were going to add in more ER frames to it and put in nose to tail IFE which should give us a hint that their replacement is likely part of this renewal. The only thing that has changed from that 77A addition/reconfig until now is UA did try out the Polaris to Hawaii to Covid. If that went over really well(paid for, not miles upgrade), then you might be right. I doubt it was that successful and there's enough spend $$ to make it happen. If it did, it would only be on a few select routes.


The post you quoted said there will be a domestic widebody just not a brand new 787 or A350, I would agree either that, in the next few years it may be more 77Es as the oldest 77As retire and then existing 787s as the last batch of 77Es retire.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:50 pm

JFKalumni wrote:
Polot wrote:
The A350 is a better 77E replacement…for the longer 77E flights (Asia mostly). But with such a large 77E fleet they operate plenty of routes that can easily be replaced by 787s (choose any EWR/IAD-Europe route operated by 77E). I doubt a A359 is really necessary over a 787-9 or -10 to fly IAD-FRA for example.

So it becomes a question of number of routes (including current 787 routes) where A350 performance is required/outperforms 787, how many A350s that translate to, and if that is enough to justify adding to fleet.


Slight advantage for the A350 for:

EWR: JNB, CPT, BOM, HKG
IAD: CPT, NRT, PEK, PVG
ORD: HKG
LAX: SIN, BNE, SYD, MEL
SFO: SYD, SIN, BNE, MEL, MNL, BOM, DEL

Everything else is already covered by the 787’s. The 78X is perfect to replace the high density 777-200A especially on the long range domestic Hawaii missions. The biggest question right now is the upcoming weight increase. Can Boeing find enough performance inside the aircraft to allow all of UA’s flights to operate without a significant penalty?

Imo,

Either a 50/50 mix of A359 and A35K

70/30 mix of 789 and 78X with the 78X receiving the majority of the order.

Airbus deposits shifted towards other models such as the A220 to address the upcoming A319, A320 cycle not covered by the previous Max / 321Neo orders.


Just my opinion, but the A359s will end up being renegotiated either for a larger A220/A321LR/XLR order (UA has 319s/320s and older NG 737-700/800 to replace, with the 319/320 fleet, which were ordered in 1992 and are coming up on 30 years of service, apart from the extra 319s added since the merger, second hand). I could also see the 359 order being part of some sort of tri-party deal with Boeing, an aircraft lessor, or some other airline. Either way, I see the future wide body order more likely to tip toward Boeing for commonality and operational simplicity. The 359 was ordered as a 747-400 replacement before the merger, and during UA's emergence from Chapter 11. It was a different time, UA was a different airline then, and the network and fleet requirements are not the same now.
 
Gyrfalcon
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:08 pm

As much as I'd love the A350 to actually show up, I think the odds are heavily in the 787-9 and -10 favor in the near term. When you average out the lift required to replace the 777 and 767s you get a 787 fleet as the answer. More smaller sized 787s are operationally more flexible than a fewer numbered A350 fleet even if it may be the correct choice on limited longer ranged routes.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:24 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
None of this is news. In a Scott Kirby interview posted in April, he told you exactly what was going to happen. The 350 engine contract is not a big deal, fleet complexity is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5XYgh ... FlightDeck

Comments on the 350 and fleet renewal start around 29:55

I don’t know how this interview isn’t more telling. He’s saying here that it’s either zero or 100+ for the A350. Meanwhile they have 45 on order.

Meaning there’s a good chance that 45 actually do not enter the fleet. He didn’t even say we will still take the 45.

He talks about fleet complexity costing a couple hundred million dollars a year.

He says they will reach out to Boeing and GE on replacing the 777s

And decide based on the economics of the deal.


Lets see


While complexity costs money, right sizing saves money and makes money. See Delta. I believe they want the best deal (who doesn’t). For now it seems the 787-9/10 (IGW) are the front runners with the a conversion of A350’s to XLR’s to replace the 767 on most routes. Don’t see the 787-8 working out for them. The orders are drying up and Boeing also doesn’t prefer to sell it…
 
JFKalumni
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:37 pm

fun2fly wrote:
Polot wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
UA might be following the JL strategy and have some A359 replacing the domestic 772 with a possible mix of A359 and A35K for international routes


You are not going to see UA order widebodies for domestic use.

You might see current planes shifted to domestic use in future (eg GE 77Es, older 787s) but UA is not going to buy expensive new 787s or A350s for domestic use. Inefficient use of CAPEX. I know they did in the past but that was a different airline in a different era.


Domestic as in ORD>DEN, probably not. Domestic as in ORD>HNL, I beg to differ as UA has been doing Hawaii runs for years this way and has the pax and infrastructure ex-DEN/LAX/SFO/EWR/ORD/IAD to use 10 of these frames on Hawaii alone (plus 2-3 for GUM/NRT ex-Hawaii). Add in a couple of EWR>LAX/SFO transcons and you have a nice 15 unit subfleet. They even use these on EWR>SJU.

UA liked the current 77A fleet so well they were going to add in more ER frames to it and put in nose to tail IFE which should give us a hint that their replacement is likely part of this renewal. The only thing that has changed from that 77A addition/reconfig until now is UA did try out the Polaris to Hawaii to Covid. If that went over really well(paid for, not miles upgrade), then you might be right. I doubt it was that successful and there's enough spend $$ to make it happen. If it did, it would only be on a few select routes.


Exactly

EWR: LAX, SFO, OGG, HNL, SJU, IAH
IAD: HNL
ORD: HNL
HNL: NRT, HND, GUM
IAH: GRU,GIG, HNL

Quite a few routes can support a high density 78X. Convert ship’s 1001-1015 (after current deliveries) into a 380-400 seat configuration and save the upgraded weight variant for international work.
 
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:55 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Having a huge A350 fleet with a huge 787 fleet just doesn't sound great.

Actually, if both fleet are huge, then it is usually worthy economically.


Absolutely not true. I can't find the link, but Kirby gave the cost per year of adding the A350 to their fleet in an interview recently, and it was huge (I believe it was several hundred million dollars/year, maybe someone can find the link). Considering the 787 can do everything the A350 can do, why in the world would United add all that cost just to get the ideal sized aircraft for a few long haul routes. If they need something larger with more range than the 787-9/10, the 777X makes more sense since they already have a large 777 fleet.

Edit: Looks like Scarebus34 found it, Thanks! "A couple hundred million a year to add fleet type. (A350)".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5XYgheK04
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:13 pm

Jetport wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Having a huge A350 fleet with a huge 787 fleet just doesn't sound great.

Actually, if both fleet are huge, then it is usually worthy economically.


Absolutely not true. I can't find the link, but Kirby gave the cost per year of adding the A350 to their fleet in an interview recently, and it was huge (I believe it was several hundred million dollars/year, maybe someone can find the link). Considering the 787 can do everything the A350 can do, why in the world would United add all that cost just to get the ideal sized aircraft for a few long haul routes. If they need something larger with more range than the 787-9/10, the 777X makes more sense since they already have a large 777 fleet.

Edit: Looks like Scarebus34 found it, Thanks! "A couple hundred million a year to add fleet type. (A350)".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5XYgheK04


'Usually' worthy economically, how is that 'absolutely not true'? The existence of large 787 and A350 fleets quite comprehensively demonstrates this not to be the case. Might not work out better for UA, but I don't see how you can look at the diverse fleets operated by most full-service carriers and say that large fleets aren't usually worthwhile economically.

Split over a fleet of 45 aircraft per year that $200m doesn't seem insurmountable. That's $4.44 million per aircraft per year, meaning $12164 per day for each aircraft. Given that the A350 carries more passengers than the 787 and has more lifting power on longer routes, the gap could be cut by the larger passenger numbers and cargo (and UA does fly a lot of ULH routes) If they go for 100 aircraft as implied then obviously the cost is split among more units.

I'd hesitate to say that the 787 can do everything the A350 can do, there are subtle differences, and some comprehensive data from this site suggests that on the longest routes the A350 burns less fuel than the 787. Plus of course more lifting power. The 777X doesn't look like a bad fit to me, but it is a large and expensive aircraft with a few question marks over its delivery and certification.
 
mig17
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:05 pm

Jetport wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Having a huge A350 fleet with a huge 787 fleet just doesn't sound great.

Actually, if both fleet are huge, then it is usually worthy economically.


Absolutely not true. I can't find the link, but Kirby gave the cost per year of adding the A350 to their fleet in an interview recently, and it was huge (I believe it was several hundred million dollars/year, maybe someone can find the link). Considering the 787 can do everything the A350 can do, why in the world would United add all that cost just to get the ideal sized aircraft for a few long haul routes. If they need something larger with more range than the 787-9/10, the 777X makes more sense since they already have a large 777 fleet.

Edit: Looks like Scarebus34 found it, Thanks! "A couple hundred million a year to add fleet type. (A350)".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5XYgheK04

It is impressive how having an A350 fleet will cost millions every year, but keeping a "large" 22 77W fleet and maybe adding 777-9 seems to be free by the same logic...

Whether UA chooses to add A350 or to keep the 777, it will cost millions each years to have a second fleet than 787. But since no, the 787 can't do everything the A350 or 777 does, it may be worth it to have a second fleet if it generate more than it cost. But there is a choice to be made.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:13 pm

mig17 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Actually, if both fleet are huge, then it is usually worthy economically.


Absolutely not true. I can't find the link, but Kirby gave the cost per year of adding the A350 to their fleet in an interview recently, and it was huge (I believe it was several hundred million dollars/year, maybe someone can find the link). Considering the 787 can do everything the A350 can do, why in the world would United add all that cost just to get the ideal sized aircraft for a few long haul routes. If they need something larger with more range than the 787-9/10, the 777X makes more sense since they already have a large 777 fleet.

Edit: Looks like Scarebus34 found it, Thanks! "A couple hundred million a year to add fleet type. (A350)".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5XYgheK04

It is impressive how having an A350 fleet will cost millions every year, but keeping a "large" 22 77W fleet and maybe adding 777-9 seems to be free by the same logic...

Whether UA chooses to add A350 or to keep the 777, it will cost millions each years to have a second fleet than 787. But since no, the 787 can't do everything the A350 or 777 does, it may be worth it to have a second fleet if it generate more than it cost. But there is a choice to be made.


Well they already have the 77W fleet. It costs a lot of money to just replace those for simplicity. Its a *very* different decision whether to add a new fleet.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:52 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Jetport wrote:

Absolutely not true. I can't find the link, but Kirby gave the cost per year of adding the A350 to their fleet in an interview recently, and it was huge (I believe it was several hundred million dollars/year, maybe someone can find the link). Considering the 787 can do everything the A350 can do, why in the world would United add all that cost just to get the ideal sized aircraft for a few long haul routes. If they need something larger with more range than the 787-9/10, the 777X makes more sense since they already have a large 777 fleet.

Edit: Looks like Scarebus34 found it, Thanks! "A couple hundred million a year to add fleet type. (A350)".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5XYgheK04

It is impressive how having an A350 fleet will cost millions every year, but keeping a "large" 22 77W fleet and maybe adding 777-9 seems to be free by the same logic...

Whether UA chooses to add A350 or to keep the 777, it will cost millions each years to have a second fleet than 787. But since no, the 787 can't do everything the A350 or 777 does, it may be worth it to have a second fleet if it generate more than it cost. But there is a choice to be made.


Well they already have the 77W fleet. It costs a lot of money to just replace those for simplicity. Its a *very* different decision whether to add a new fleet.

Also it's been established that they were able to secure favorable pricing on their 77W fleet which offsets higher operating costs.
 
mig17
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:17 pm

JohanTally wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
mig17 wrote:
It is impressive how having an A350 fleet will cost millions every year, but keeping a "large" 22 77W fleet and maybe adding 777-9 seems to be free by the same logic...

Whether UA chooses to add A350 or to keep the 777, it will cost millions each years to have a second fleet than 787. But since no, the 787 can't do everything the A350 or 777 does, it may be worth it to have a second fleet if it generate more than it cost. But there is a choice to be made.


Well they already have the 77W fleet. It costs a lot of money to just replace those for simplicity. Its a *very* different decision whether to add a new fleet.

Also it's been established that they were able to secure favorable pricing on their 77W fleet which offsets higher operating costs.

The favorable pricing they got on the acquisition of the 77W are in the past.
If you want from today (or more in 2030+ when the other 777 models will be gone) to do a comparative ROI on keeping the 77W or swapping to A350-1000 or 787-10, you will have to consider acquisition cost of the new frames, residual value of the old frames, difference in opperating cost (taking into acount commonality and fleet size of each) and difference in revenue.
And I am convinced, there is a world where if you have 100 A350 or 200 787, adding 22 to get rid of the 777 fleet type offers a short term ROI if you are not short on capacity.
Of course, the choice of United can also be to have 787 and expand 777 fleet with 777-8 and -9, but somehow, I realy don't see that happening.

The competition is between 787 and A350. The winner will be the one offering the best global ROI from 2026 (4 years from now, when the order will be firmed according to the article) and I see United doing the maths themself and buy both at the best discount from each OEM (if both OEM plays the game ...) to optimise operations with only 2 large fleets of recent and efficiant widebodies.
 
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United_fan
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:36 pm

Wasn't the A350 order to replace the 744's ? Seems to me,they should stick to 787's to keep fleet commonality.
 
fun2fly
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:41 pm

Maybe Boeing buys back the 77W to get a 779 sale? They can convert to freighters or lease out. 779 sales are dismal.
 
randomdude83
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 12:00 am

IMHO, United needs to consider major events like 9/11 recessions and pandemics and whatever is coming our way in the next 20/30 years, meaning when they need to ground and operate the most efficient fleet possible to survive such things what is that preferred fleet type, and with the pandemic and observing what fleet types went to storage immediately, it feels like the A321XLRS and 787-9 are going to be the preferred type to operate. I think they should push out the A350 (if they can) to get even more XLRS and get 50 787-9, maybe 7810s if that 4100NM performance works for them and 788 if Boeing is willing to sell them cheaper than the 787-9, other wise, pointless.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 12:34 am

mig17 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Well they already have the 77W fleet. It costs a lot of money to just replace those for simplicity. Its a *very* different decision whether to add a new fleet.

Also it's been established that they were able to secure favorable pricing on their 77W fleet which offsets higher operating costs.

The favorable pricing they got on the acquisition of the 77W are in the past.
If you want from today (or more in 2030+ when the other 777 models will be gone) to do a comparative ROI on keeping the 77W or swapping to A350-1000 or 787-10, you will have to consider acquisition cost of the new frames, residual value of the old frames, difference in opperating cost (taking into acount commonality and fleet size of each) and difference in revenue.
And I am convinced, there is a world where if you have 100 A350 or 200 787, adding 22 to get rid of the 777 fleet type offers a short term ROI if you are not short on capacity.
Of course, the choice of United can also be to have 787 and expand 777 fleet with 777-8 and -9, but somehow, I realy don't see that happening.

The competition is between 787 and A350. The winner will be the one offering the best global ROI from 2026 (4 years from now, when the order will be firmed according to the article) and I see United doing the maths themself and buy both at the best discount from each OEM (if both OEM plays the game ...) to optimise operations with only 2 large fleets of recent and efficiant widebodies.


Huh? UA is still paying for them now, so that pricing matters. You can’t just dismiss the cost of aircraft currently in the fleet. It is also a completely inappropriate comparison with acquisition of an entirely new type.
 
CX747
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:04 am

fun2fly wrote:
Kirby went on record in 2022 stating that he knew what US paid for the 350 and UA's current contract was not favorable. He felt the engine penalty was a non-issue also. He said he's run an RFP (what we're talking about) between A and B for the units to replace the 772's and that the cost of the newly negotiated contract at a lower price would well outweigh any penalties. He's one of the few guys in the world that would know that as he's seen the UA and US prices.

While there is wild speculation on the forum about the 779 as a 77W replacement, that is out of scope for this RFP. UA has 10 years on this replacement issue.

78J's x 25 to replace domestic units special config figure close to 400 seats (Hawaii shuttle!)
78J's x 30 to replace PW 772's (TATL from all hubs, closer TPAC SFO/LAX)
789's x 25 to replace GE 772's (usually EWR longer haul TPAC routes, longer SFO TPAC routes)
Total 80 (or 60 plus 20 options) to allow for some growth

752/3's & 763/4's - much harder to predict as it's a tweener. Somehow, AA figured out how to make the 788 work and it allows them to offer a nice TATL ride with a low 200's seat count. I'm not sure of the improvements made for the AA order will work for UA. I've given up on the NMA. Not sure how long UA can wait on the 763's so the 788 might just have to win due to their being no NMA. 321XLR could buy UA a few more years waiting on the NMA.


Well said. Kirby has come out and stated that this is a fresh RFP. The 45 prior A350s only count if Airbus wins. Adding the A350 will cost hundreds of millions of dollars a year, due to being a seperate fleet. The 787 is an outstanding aircraft, a world beater in many ways and UA for certain knows how incredible the -8/-9/-10 are. So, by ordering new 787s, the company saves itself right off the bat, hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Plus, it gets arguably the world's #1 widebody of all time as it's strong longhaul backbone.

Having the economic benefit of 200+ 787s, with the same pilot pool, is downright mouthwatering. All of this as you reduce costs for fleets when either a 767 or 777 is retired, as the 787 fleet and training capability are already on property and humming. Buying more 787s to replace the 767 and 777 fleets is a win, win, win scenario for United. They have a wonderful widebody fleet in the 787 to build around for the next 30 years and can decrease fleet costs. I see UA buying additional 787s, to include the 787-10+ and having a monster power seat and great negotiation place with Boeing on the 787 for the life of the program.

Fun facts:

1- Possible order was announced only after 787 deliveries began once again...

2- Possible order was announced at the same time an improved version of the 787-10 or a 787-10+ was confirmed by Boeing....
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:06 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
NW had an A330 order on the books for almost 15 years, when they announced they had chosen the A330 as the DC-10 replacement. One of the driving reasons they re-choose the A330 was the substantial deposits they would lose. Airbus treated it as a new order & celebrated & the original A330 order was subsequently cancelled.

I expect the same thing to happen here -- if UA chooses the A350, Airbus will celebrate/ treat it like a new order and cancel the incumbent order.

ILikeTrains wrote:
I would suppose if they aren’t waiting for the Boeing NMA for a 767 replacement, that ship has probably sailed further than it already has.

I see a few possibilities here:

1. A350 order is canceled, and we see mostly 787-10’s ordered. Whatever Boeing comes up with for the IGW variant should be more than compelling. The United Fleet thread has talked about the 787-10 being able to leave JNB with more pax than a 787-9 and make it to EWR. I could see 788s being ordered to cover the small end of the market with the 767s, and maybe 789IGW for the ultra long haul SIN/BLR missions. I would say this scenario is most likely, and that United is not looking to add the crew and maintenance complexities of another type.

2. A350 order sticks, and 787s are ordered to replace the 767s on shorter legged missions. This will happen if United is unimpressed with the 787IGW, and honestly the A350-900 is a bit better of a 772 replacement in some aspects.

sofianec wrote:
Are we to assume that A330-900neo is dismissed by default?


Yes.


Northwest also had an A340 order that it canceled. It would have been the only US operator of the A340. I do suspect that United will order the A350-900 as a B772 replacement, especially since the 777X would be too big. The only thing is that UA would likely be with a smaller cabin than the longer-range B772s should it decide on 4 classes (J-W-Y+-Y), especially with going back to 3-3-3 from 3-4-3 on the B772.

As for the non-ERs, more 787-10s would be warranted with just 2 classes.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:37 am

Jetport wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Having a huge A350 fleet with a huge 787 fleet just doesn't sound great.

Actually, if both fleet are huge, then it is usually worthy economically.


Absolutely not true. I can't find the link, but Kirby gave the cost per year of adding the A350 to their fleet in an interview recently, and it was huge (I believe it was several hundred million dollars/year, maybe someone can find the link). Considering the 787 can do everything the A350 can do, why in the world would United add all that cost just to get the ideal sized aircraft for a few long haul routes. If they need something larger with more range than the 787-9/10, the 777X makes more sense since they already have a large 777 fleet.

Edit: Looks like Scarebus34 found it, Thanks! "A couple hundred million a year to add fleet type. (A350)".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5XYgheK04

Maybe not for UA. But LH for example will have 45 A350s and 32 787s; and is not the only one.
jfk777 was making a generalization, that the reality at most airlines does not support.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:04 am

why couldn't they just take delivery of the A359s and quickly lease them out to another large STAR carrier or back to Boeing. Didn't SQ do something like that w/ the A340s...
 
strfyr51
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:10 am

FluidFlow wrote:
One thing to consider is that the 787 and the 350 have a future of at least 30 years, because both will get an engine upgrade at one point. The airframe in itself is just so good. The 777X is definetely the last iteration and is somewhat a dead end. The question is, will UA need something bigger than the 787-10. If yes, the chances to incorporate the 350 is very high. The reason is that the 77Ws still have a lot of life in it. I would not be surprised if UA orders 50+ 787s delivered until 2030 and top up the 350 order to 100+ but with delivery pushed even further out in anticipation to replace the 777Ws with NEO versions of the 350. Why not? The 77Ws will be good for another 10-15 years (at least) and the 787 can cover the rest. The moment UA will need an aircraft with the volume and payload/range of the 77Ws we will have an 350neo in the pipeline.

While the 787-10neo will give the 359neo a run for its money, the 35Kneo will be the new 77W just way more economical.

does anybody REALLY have the cost/flight hour breakdown so se can see the A350 and the 777-200/300ER and the 777-8/9 side by side?I personally do not believe United will EVER pull the Trigger on the A350 unless? the A350 should suddenly come up with A GE engine option. United might opt for the Rolls Royce? But if you were to see their turbine shop? you might very well doubt it, In the future? possibly, But I doubt that I'll live to see it.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:34 am

One of the benefits now are that aircraft like the 787/A350, airlines can use a single type for all ops. Larger airlines like UA could easily incorporate 2 types with different configurations for different missions.

QF don’t have a have a huge wide body fleet but in 10 years will end up with only 787/A350, NZ even smaller will have all 787 while other larger carriers like BA will have 787/779/77W/351/388 to cover off various missions.

It really depends on the airline and route network, UA keep pushing the 359 back while now say they are looking for a 772/763 replacement, I couldn’t say weather they will take the A350 though I would lean towards them not taking them at this stage given their approach.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 5:16 am

I imagine that any airline would carefully consider the wisdom of single-sourcing from Boeing. That really is a high-risk proposition, and leaves any airline going down that road exposed to the full impact of the next, inevitable, Boeing blunder.

So that’s probably what United will do. The short-sightedness of US companies is legendary, and will almost certainly guarantee they’ll make a decision based solely on how it’ll impact the next quarterly.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:23 am

If the 787 is a shoe-in at UA, I am shocked that previous management ordered 25 A350s, then twice added 10 more.
 
Opus99
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:28 am

B777LRF wrote:
I imagine that any airline would carefully consider the wisdom of single-sourcing from Boeing. That really is a high-risk proposition, and leaves any airline going down that road exposed to the full impact of the next, inevitable, Boeing blunder.

So that’s probably what United will do. The short-sightedness of US companies is legendary, and will almost certainly guarantee they’ll make a decision based solely on how it’ll impact the next quarterly.

I’d like to believe that the regulatory scrutiny of the 787 and MAX over the past 4 years has been one of the highest I’ve seen. At this point, the risk of single sourcing from Boeing on the 787 and certified max models are at their lowest at the minute. The risk will always be there 100% but the risk is certainly at its lowest, following what Boeing has gone through and the changes they’ve made.

I don’t think a blunder on the 787 is “inevitable” actually there haven’t been blunders in a while actually just fixing of already existing blunders.

A risk still exists going sole source airbus at the next “inevitable” Airbus blunder. Degrees may vary but it’s a risk and when it pays off the benefits outweighs it tremendously

Now, it’s all business at the end of the day and you raise a good point. And for whatever reason the risk materialises at the end of the day you get compensation.

Also as Stan deal said. Getting orders when deliveries are. It happening is hard because said risk is high but when it’s back, that risk is cut dramatically
Last edited by Opus99 on Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:31 am

Jetport wrote:
Considering the 787 can do everything the A350 can do, why in the world would United add all that cost just to get the ideal sized aircraft for a few long haul routes.


The 787 cannot do what a 350 can do, jayunited has explained on here before that the 787-10 can basically only reach AKL with passengers, no cargo. On days they need to carry cargo they use the 77E.

UA may also just decide to forget about cargo, they carry such an insignificant amount.
 
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Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:34 am

strfyr51 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
One thing to consider is that the 787 and the 350 have a future of at least 30 years, because both will get an engine upgrade at one point. The airframe in itself is just so good. The 777X is definetely the last iteration and is somewhat a dead end. The question is, will UA need something bigger than the 787-10. If yes, the chances to incorporate the 350 is very high. The reason is that the 77Ws still have a lot of life in it. I would not be surprised if UA orders 50+ 787s delivered until 2030 and top up the 350 order to 100+ but with delivery pushed even further out in anticipation to replace the 777Ws with NEO versions of the 350. Why not? The 77Ws will be good for another 10-15 years (at least) and the 787 can cover the rest. The moment UA will need an aircraft with the volume and payload/range of the 77Ws we will have an 350neo in the pipeline.

While the 787-10neo will give the 359neo a run for its money, the 35Kneo will be the new 77W just way more economical.

does anybody REALLY have the cost/flight hour breakdown so se can see the A350 and the 777-200/300ER and the 777-8/9 side by side?I personally do not believe United will EVER pull the Trigger on the A350 unless? the A350 should suddenly come up with A GE engine option. United might opt for the Rolls Royce? But if you were to see their turbine shop? you might very well doubt it, In the future? possibly, But I doubt that I'll live to see it.


I think certain airlines (for example BA and AF) should have the cost/flight hour breakdown between the A350 and 77W. BA might even have some idea regarding the 777-9 just because they will get the data from Boeing.

And wow I did not know that the UA turbine shop is that limited and seems not to have the capability to add an RR engine. Might should learn a thing or two from LH-technics...
 
BavariaA300
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Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2022 11:14 am

Re: Potential United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:58 am

CX747 wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
Kirby went on record in 2022 stating that he knew what US paid for the 350 and UA's current contract was not favorable. He felt the engine penalty was a non-issue also. He said he's run an RFP (what we're talking about) between A and B for the units to replace the 772's and that the cost of the newly negotiated contract at a lower price would well outweigh any penalties. He's one of the few guys in the world that would know that as he's seen the UA and US prices.

While there is wild speculation on the forum about the 779 as a 77W replacement, that is out of scope for this RFP. UA has 10 years on this replacement issue.

78J's x 25 to replace domestic units special config figure close to 400 seats (Hawaii shuttle!)
78J's x 30 to replace PW 772's (TATL from all hubs, closer TPAC SFO/LAX)
789's x 25 to replace GE 772's (usually EWR longer haul TPAC routes, longer SFO TPAC routes)
Total 80 (or 60 plus 20 options) to allow for some growth

752/3's & 763/4's - much harder to predict as it's a tweener. Somehow, AA figured out how to make the 788 work and it allows them to offer a nice TATL ride with a low 200's seat count. I'm not sure of the improvements made for the AA order will work for UA. I've given up on the NMA. Not sure how long UA can wait on the 763's so the 788 might just have to win due to their being no NMA. 321XLR could buy UA a few more years waiting on the NMA.


Well said. Kirby has come out and stated that this is a fresh RFP. The 45 prior A350s only count if Airbus wins. Adding the A350 will cost hundreds of millions of dollars a year, due to being a seperate fleet. The 787 is an outstanding aircraft, a world beater in many ways and UA for certain knows how incredible the -8/-9/-10 are. So, by ordering new 787s, the company saves itself right off the bat, hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Plus, it gets arguably the world's #1 widebody of all time as it's strong longhaul backbone.

Having the economic benefit of 200+ 787s, with the same pilot pool, is downright mouthwatering. All of this as you reduce costs for fleets when either a 767 or 777 is retired, as the 787 fleet and training capability are already on property and humming. Buying more 787s to replace the 767 and 777 fleets is a win, win, win scenario for United. They have a wonderful widebody fleet in the 787 to build around for the next 30 years and can decrease fleet costs. I see UA buying additional 787s, to include the 787-10+ and having a monster power seat and great negotiation place with Boeing on the 787 for the life of the program.

Fun facts:

1- Possible order was announced only after 787 deliveries began once again...

2- Possible order was announced at the same time an improved version of the 787-10 or a 787-10+ was confirmed by Boeing....


What is a world beater and what is a monster power seat?
 
User avatar
DLHAM
Posts: 893
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:10 am

Re: United Widebody Order: 787, A350 being considered

Fri Aug 19, 2022 9:13 am

EdmFlyBoi wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Probably going to end up being MTOW boosted -10s as the majority of this order with some more -9s


Likely, but what to replace the 767 with?


787’s and XLR’s. The A350 deposits could be used for an additional 50-75 XLR’s.


Possible, but what do to with routes with medium passenger demand but healthy Cargo demand ... Fly the XLR fully booked and truck the Cargo to another Airport or fly the 787-8 with half the Business Class empty and large parts of Economy Sold with Junk fares to move the Cargo?

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