https://airlineweekly.com/2022/08/unite ... n-4-years/

So airline weekly is reporting that United airlines is on the market for widebodies to replace 777s and 767s. It was apparently told to pilots at a townhall and a recommendation will be given later this year

Obviously the article references the updated 787-10 that could very well influence uniteds decision as the updates give it a boost in endurance and productivity


Now my question is:

Don’t you already have 45 350s on order to replace 777s? What’s this all about?

Secondly, Stan deal did say 787 orders were hard to come by because deliveries had not resumed, well here we are.

787-10 anyone?

My take?

787-10 for 777 and 787-8 for 767

Are we to assume that A330-900neo is dismissed by default?
And what is happening with the resumption of 787 line. Boeing badly need the 787-10 to start ramping-up new sales and deliveries, ofc.

IMO.. it’s a 787-8 and -9/779 mix .. they will need the range of the X for some of their routes.. and growth internationally.. something the 787 can’t offer currently.. unless Boeing can push for more range on the -10.. but that’s just my opinion…

UA has A350s on order, have had them for a while, keep deferring the deliveries.
At this point, I'm sure Airbus expects that order to be dropped, and I doubt they take this RFQ seriously... unless UA clearly says they are a real contender.

ERJ170 wrote:

IMO.. it’s a 787-8 and -9/779 mix .. they will need the range of the X for some of their routes.. and growth internationally.. something the 787 can’t offer currently.. unless Boeing can push for more range on the -10.. but that’s just my opinion…

Boeing IS pushing for more range on the -10. It’s talked about in the article

I don't see them taking any more -8s. I would be willing to bet that any future 787 orders will be for the -9, -10, or if there are any new variants with a compelling business case. I think the economics of the -8 would need to improve for them to take more, but I don't see Boeing putting much effort into it with so few outstanding orders. The fact that they're considering more 787s rather than just taking A350s already on order is pretty telling — it seems like they're still trying to find reasons not to take the A350.

I hope they take the A359, but gets harder to see it with every passing year. I believe the A359 would offer better lift for their longest TPAC routes, but at the same time would be adding a fleet type they don't desperately need. Would be surprised if it's anything other than 787s, to be honest.

sofianec wrote:

Are we to assume that A330-900neo is dismissed by default?
And what is happening with the resumption of 787 line. Boeing badly need the 787-10 to start ramping-up new sales and deliveries, ofc.

There’s really no point in the A330neo at UA. They have no A330ceos so zero commonality thus it would just be adding a new type that completely overlaps with the 787 fleet. At least the A350 offers greater capability and the ability to directly replace 77Ws in the future.

WayexTDI wrote:

UA has A350s on order, have had them for a while, keep deferring the deliveries.
At this point, I'm sure Airbus expects that order to be dropped, and I doubt they take this RFQ seriously... unless UA clearly says they are a real contender.

I don't know what it is about the A350, but I think it's a majorly good looking bird. Would love to see it with UA colors! I know, I know.... It's not about looks. But for us avGeeks.... It would be cool to see.

I would suppose if they aren’t waiting for the Boeing NMA for a 767 replacement, that ship has probably sailed further than it already has.

I see a few possibilities here:

1. A350 order is canceled, and we see mostly 787-10’s ordered. Whatever Boeing comes up with for the IGW variant should be more than compelling. The United Fleet thread has talked about the 787-10 being able to leave JNB with more pax than a 787-9 and make it to EWR. I could see 788s being ordered to cover the small end of the market with the 767s, and maybe 789IGW for the ultra long haul SIN/BLR missions. I would say this scenario is most likely, and that United is not looking to add the crew and maintenance complexities of another type.

2. A350 order sticks, and 787s are ordered to replace the 767s on shorter legged missions. This will happen if United is unimpressed with the 787IGW, and honestly the A350-900 is a bit better of a 772 replacement in some aspects.

sofianec wrote:

Are we to assume that A330-900neo is dismissed by default?

Yes.

Would suck to not see the A350 at UA but narrowing the fleet to 787s and 777Xs makes sense. Wonder if they'd consider the A330NEO but I think that's just wishful thinking.

Hard to see them ordering the 350 per not having Airbus widebodies previously.

VS11 wrote:

Hard to see them ordering the 350 per not having Airbus widebodies previously.

Well, they've already ordered those...

jbs2886 wrote:

VS11 wrote:

Hard to see them ordering the 350 per not having Airbus widebodies previously.

Well, they've already ordered those...

Haven’t they been delaying the delivery of those? That order has been the talk of this site for years.

ERJ170 wrote:

IMO.. it’s a 787-8 and -9/779 mix .. they will need the range of the X for some of their routes.. and growth internationally.. something the 787 can’t offer currently.. unless Boeing can push for more range on the -10.. but that’s just my opinion…

I don't see any more 787-8's IMHO. I think it is more likely more -9's and even more likely, more -10's.

NW had an A330 order on the books for almost 15 years, when they announced they had chosen the A330 as the DC-10 replacement. One of the driving reasons they re-choose the A330 was the substantial deposits they would lose. Airbus treated it as a new order & celebrated & the original A330 order was subsequently cancelled.

I expect the same thing to happen here -- if UA chooses the A350, Airbus will celebrate/ treat it like a new order and cancel the incumbent order.

ILikeTrains wrote:

I would suppose if they aren’t waiting for the Boeing NMA for a 767 replacement, that ship has probably sailed further than it already has.

I see a few possibilities here:

1. A350 order is canceled, and we see mostly 787-10’s ordered. Whatever Boeing comes up with for the IGW variant should be more than compelling. The United Fleet thread has talked about the 787-10 being able to leave JNB with more pax than a 787-9 and make it to EWR. I could see 788s being ordered to cover the small end of the market with the 767s, and maybe 789IGW for the ultra long haul SIN/BLR missions. I would say this scenario is most likely, and that United is not looking to add the crew and maintenance complexities of another type.

2. A350 order sticks, and 787s are ordered to replace the 767s on shorter legged missions. This will happen if United is unimpressed with the 787IGW, and honestly the A350-900 is a bit better of a 772 replacement in some aspects.

sofianec wrote:

Are we to assume that A330-900neo is dismissed by default?

Yes.

Just flew on an LH 747-8. Would love for UA to buy these. I bet Boing would make a great deal. I know it will never happen.

cbchicago wrote:

Just flew on an LH 747-8. Would love for UA to buy these. I bet Boing would make a great deal. I know it will never happen.

I bet Boeing would *not* make a great deal considering the enormous costs for suppliers and Boeing to mostly restart production. Further, by the time they could be delivered, the 777X will presumably be delivering to customers.

Nevertheless, it doesn't appear UA is looking for an aircraft that size.

cbchicago wrote:

Just flew on an LH 747-8. Would love for UA to buy these. I bet Boing would make a great deal. I know it will never happen.

The 747 is not available for sale. Production is wrapping up, there are only a handful left to be delivered.

Probably going to end up being MTOW boosted -10s as the majority of this order with some more -9s

I’m not really sure what the longer range 787-10 is capable of but given that Air New Zealand has ordered it I would think it can handle most of what UA could ask of it. Given that United has the 787-9 operating its longest routes I could foresee them ending up with a WB fleet comprised entirely of 787s. I’d love to see them go for the A350 but this is Boeing’s to lose, IMO.

Since there was a big move to increase the number of seats per aircraft with the 737-10 order they could follow the same business model, order the 777-9 to cover the heaviest demand routes and move current types one rung down the ladder

Why would UA not go with an all 787 widebody fleet?

Why would they need the A350?

Why would they need the 777?

The 787 variants seem to meet the needs of their international network strategy.

ikolkyo wrote:

Probably going to end up being MTOW boosted -10s as the majority of this order with some more -9s

Likely, but what to replace the 767 with?

I wonder what compensation Airbus would require for a cancellation.

From memory UA's order started as 25 X A359, then 35 x A3510, then 45 A359.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

NW had an A330 order on the books for almost 15 years, when they announced they had chosen the A330 as the DC-10 replacement. One of the driving reasons they re-choose the A330 was the substantial deposits they would lose. Airbus treated it as a new order & celebrated & the original A330 order was subsequently cancelled.

I expect the same thing to happen here -- if UA chooses the A350, Airbus will celebrate/ treat it like a new order and cancel the incumbent order.

ILikeTrains wrote:

I would suppose if they aren’t waiting for the Boeing NMA for a 767 replacement, that ship has probably sailed further than it already has.

I see a few possibilities here:

1. A350 order is canceled, and we see mostly 787-10’s ordered. Whatever Boeing comes up with for the IGW variant should be more than compelling. The United Fleet thread has talked about the 787-10 being able to leave JNB with more pax than a 787-9 and make it to EWR. I could see 788s being ordered to cover the small end of the market with the 767s, and maybe 789IGW for the ultra long haul SIN/BLR missions. I would say this scenario is most likely, and that United is not looking to add the crew and maintenance complexities of another type.

2. A350 order sticks, and 787s are ordered to replace the 767s on shorter legged missions. This will happen if United is unimpressed with the 787IGW, and honestly the A350-900 is a bit better of a 772 replacement in some aspects.

sofianec wrote:

Are we to assume that A330-900neo is dismissed by default?

Yes.

That could drive United to keep the A350, I think the contract with RR for the engines has the biggest penalty for cancellation. I think the major difference between UA and NW in this case is the fact UA already has a type in use that covers the use case of the 777 and 767, vs NW having nothing in their fleet that had similar capabilities to the DC10.

We’ll see, both aircraft are viable to Uniteds fleet plans

DLHAM wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

Probably going to end up being MTOW boosted -10s as the majority of this order with some more -9s

Likely, but what to replace the 767 with?

Could go the AA route with the -8, upgauge like DL or just hold off on it for now and hope for the mythical MOM

I wonder UA is interested in the 10 abreast seats for the A350, obviously still under development, would line up with the 2027 delivery

questions wrote:

Why would UA not go with an all 787 widebody fleet?

Why would they need the A350?

Why would they need the 777?

The 787 variants seem to meet the needs of their international network strategy.

I agree.

Yet at the same time, there is a notable 32-seat difference between UA's 78X and 77W in current configurations.

J: 44 | 60
W: 21 | 24
Y+: 54 | 62
Y: 199 | 204

Total: 318 | 350

United's entire widebody fleet is premium-heavy but there's no denying that the 77W is even more premium heavy than the 78X. That difference in J is not inconsequential.

The 777-9 has (I think) 3 more Y rows than the 77W. So ballpark, that's anywhere from maybe 8 more seats to 30 more seats, taking the total from 350 on the 77W to around 360-380 on the 779. Let's call it 370 to be safe. So in a similar configuration as existing 77Ws, United gets 20 more seats and 250 more nmi. Great.

I don't want to discount the A350, but after all it is a completely new type that does not exist in the UA fleet and I find it highly unlikely that UA will operate Airbus widebodies.

Either way, I think United stands to benefit more from a more specialized, larger aircraft type within a two-type widebody fleet as opposed to a simple one-size-fits-all single type widebody fleet. (I say two-type because the NMA is doubtful).

The 787 is a great plane, especially with the MTOW boost for the 789/X, but I think the 779 has a good chance of entering the UA fleet, especially when it comes to airports that are cargo heavy, are capacity-constrained, or are partner hubs. FRA/NRT/ICN/PVG/PEK/LHR/BOM/DEL are some that come to mind. I have also seen them fly the 77W to MUC and TLV, so there are probably other airports I'm missing.

PHLspecial wrote:

I wonder UA is interested in the 10 abreast seats for the A350, obviously still under development, would line up with the 2027 delivery

I don’t know but I’ll give you something.

At IAGs half year release, they introduced new business class seats on the A350 from December 2023 and “wider economy seats”

So it seems as though the thinning of walls is being used for wider economy seats at Iberia and not necessarily an extra seat.

But I don’t know, we have to see

Just for laughs, it's really quite interesting to compare this thread with this one from four years ago:

viewtopic.php?t=1387855

Back then the A330-800 was said to be in the running to replace the 767s as Boeing's notional NMA stalled!

These days the 787 surely has the inside track, just from the fleet commonality perspective. But sooner or later there has to be some resolution of the A350 order? Take them, cancel them or convert them! So I wouldn't entirely rule out something with Airbus, even if it's just a partial order that finally puts that conundrum to bed.

Polot wrote:

cbchicago wrote:

Just flew on an LH 747-8. Would love for UA to buy these. I bet Boing would make a great deal. I know it will never happen.

The 747 is not available for sale. Production is wrapping up, there are only a handful left to be delivered.

Yeah no, even if 747 was still being produced, the pax 747 was last delivered to KE in 2017. And it is pretty obvious UA/DL/AA have shied away from VLAs. The 747-400s (at DL) weren't even that old, but there was little market for them. If there was a market for these VLAs, then maybe these airlines would fly them, but there isn't.

Do we know if UA moved the A350 deposits to the A321NEO order?

I can see the appeal of a "single family" widebody fleet for United. I put "..." because the 77W aren't leaving soon. United is looking to replace 777-200, 777-200ER, 767-300ER and 767-400ER. Roughly 130 planes. And the 787 family being quite flexible, it can handle it, United could buy a mix of 130 787-9 and 787-10 withe the forcasted MTOW increase and then:
787-9 and 787-10 with the forcasted MTOW increase will be perfect for 777-200ER replacement. And they will replace/upgrade/upgauge older 787 while they replace other type.
787-10 without MTOW increase already on property can cover the 777-200.
787-8 and -9 without MTOW increase already on property can replace the 767-300ER and 400ER.

It will leave United with a modern widebody fleet of 200 787 (787-8, 787-9, 787-9ER, 787-10 and 787-10ER) and 22 77W.

But there are also downside with this single fleet strategy. For exemple, pilot hiring. It is easier to find 500 pilots for type X and 500 pilots for type Y on the market than 1000 pilots of a single type. And you are realy dependant of one manufacturer for new orders since the orher is not going to take his chances to seriously.

There is also the odd 77W case. It is not realy a single fleet as long as there are here. And the commonality effect with the other 77A and 77E will be gone. Is it worth it to keep them. And if you don't, what to replace them? 779 is the same story, still not a single fleet and 787-10, the largest 787 for now is smaller.

And of course there is the fact that United already have 45 firm A350-900 on order who are also perfect replacement for the 777-200ER

That is why I can see a dual fleet strategy :
Keep the 45 A350-900 already on order, with maybe a top of to 55 or 60 to improve the deal and order a mix of 70 or 75 787-9ER and -10-ER. Then in 2030+, when all the 777 but the 77W will have left, replace the 77W with 20 A35Kneo and you will have transform an old 3 family widebody fleet into a young 2 family and you will have acces to both manufzcturer for futur orders.

Why would they consider replacing 777s with A350s but not 777Xs? Are the Xs too big for UA?

lostsound wrote:

Why would they consider replacing 777s with A350s but not 777Xs? Are the Xs too big for UA?

They are wanting to replace the 772, 77E, 763 fleets, the 77X is to much aircraft to replace the 772, you can shuffle some 77Ws to 772 routes and bring in the 77X but in reality UA have several hubs where more smaller aircraft make sense. It would be doubtful they need more 350+ seat aircraft in any case I think.

An all 787 fleet plus the 77W is quite likely here I think given UA keep pushing the A350 back.

lostsound wrote:

Why would they consider replacing 777s with A350s but not 777Xs? Are the Xs too big for UA?

The 777-8 doesn't seem to be the best 777-200ER replacement while the 777-9 is quite larger.

DLHAM wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

Probably going to end up being MTOW boosted -10s as the majority of this order with some more -9s

Likely, but what to replace the 767 with?

There isn’t a 1:1 replacement for the 767-300. A hypothetical MOM is unlikely before 2030, by which point the ship would have sailed as most large 763 operators will have already ordered replacements.

The 767 replacement will likely be a combination of 789s and A321s (maybe 788s if Boeing is prepared to discount significantly against the 789, which they’re probably not motivated to do). Just because they use a 767 now doesn’t mean that it is the most optimal size for the route, rather just what they currently have in the fleet. A combination of upgauging or downgauging to the 789 and A321 will cover the overwhelming majority of 767 markets.

MIflyer12 wrote:

mig17 wrote:

But there are also downside with this single fleet strategy. For exemple, pilot hiring. It is easier to find 500 pilots for type X and 500 pilots for type Y on the market than 1000 pilots of a single type.

It doesn't work that way for U.S. carriers. New hires go to the bottom of the seniority list and get whatever more senior flyers don't want. It doesn't matter if they left Delta with 10,000 hours on a 777.

True, until there is a long shortage of pilot. Unlikely in the US tho. You are right.

TWA772LR wrote:

I'd love UA to take on the 777X, both variants. If Boeing would cover the cancellation cost in the RR engine contract for the A350, I think UA would go for it.

UA pushing the A350 order back to the time of a supposed A350 neo with the UltraFan makes me think they're willing to commit to eventually replace the 77Es, and maybe even the A35J neo to replace the 77W.

More 787s, of all types, are a given. With the absents of an actual MoM aircraft, the 788 is the best fit in Uniteds fleet to replace the 767. This will leave a gap in capacity between the A321 and 788, which seems to be a natural gap considering the current one between the 752 and 763. Domestically, the nonLR A321s and 73J will replace the 753, ultimately, with more frequency. I'd also expect some moderate upgauging on 753 routes where necessary.

I don’t see ultrafan launch this decade on any platform

And if it does, we all know the same tech is available to the 787 right?

And it probably does more for the 787 than the 350 because it now means the 78X is not only more efficient but probably has the range to go just about anywhere

So we are back at square one

lostsound wrote:

Why would they consider replacing 777s with A350s but not 777Xs? Are the Xs too big for UA?

Well the UA 77W fleet is young and doesn't need replacement like the 772.

IMO united will pay for the cancellation fee.

Order 78Xs, God knows how many credits they have from 787 delays etc.

We know united thought about more 787s last year but Boeing prioritised a max boost instead

https://twitter.com/leehamnews/status/1 ... DRNC3hyGhA

Line pilot rumor latest; recently SK said, the A350 order is still a go. After watching the effects of the MAX, we would like to not have all our eggs in one basket. Similar to Asia, and MidEastern airlines that fly widebody of both Boeing & Airbus.

WayexTDI wrote:

UA has A350s on order, have had them for a while, keep deferring the deliveries.
At this point, I'm sure Airbus expects that order to be dropped, and I doubt they take this RFQ seriously... unless UA clearly says they are a real contender.

When they ordered, didn’t they say these were to replace the 744’s?

WayexTDI wrote:

UA has A350s on order, have had them for a while, keep deferring the deliveries.
At this point, I'm sure Airbus expects that order to be dropped, and I doubt they take this RFQ seriously... unless UA clearly says they are a real contender.

Other than what you said, the only thing I can think of is that they want Airbus to come back with better pricing, assuming that Boeing will be aggressive with price for a win. This also has the added benefit for United of at least the appearance of a competitor for Boeing to keep them honest.