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BoeingGuy
Posts: 7028
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Mon Aug 29, 2022 1:01 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
As ZK-NCJ says below, more destinations P2P so less people connecting overall but tapping into new non stop routes and building demand.


I don't see AKL-CRP ever happening. The most important issue for the Australia/New Zealand - US market is avoiding having to make double connections in the US. Prior to the QF flights to DFW, many people in the southeastern US would have to make a connection at DFW, then a connection at LAX. AKL-DEN is problematic, because the airport is over a mile high. Even with a 16,000 foot long runway, it is still limited for high gross weights to take off from DEN to fly to AKL.


CRP? YYZ is another potential route.


I think his CRP comment was sarastic because A.net readers in the past have mis-stated what P2P means. It doesn’t mean hub on each end. It means opening up new city pairs that weren’t flown before. Like AKL-JFK, AKL-IAH, MEL-DFW, LHR-SJC, etc.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 9150
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:12 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:

I don't see AKL-CRP ever happening. The most important issue for the Australia/New Zealand - US market is avoiding having to make double connections in the US. Prior to the QF flights to DFW, many people in the southeastern US would have to make a connection at DFW, then a connection at LAX. AKL-DEN is problematic, because the airport is over a mile high. Even with a 16,000 foot long runway, it is still limited for high gross weights to take off from DEN to fly to AKL.


CRP? YYZ is another potential route.


I think his CRP comment was sarastic because A.net readers in the past have mis-stated what P2P means. It doesn’t mean hub on each end. It means opening up new city pairs that weren’t flown before. Like AKL-JFK, AKL-IAH, MEL-DFW, LHR-SJC, etc.


Fair enough, I missed that.
 
NZ321
Posts: 1596
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:20 am

I think Star alliance / Oneworld connections are overstated as a reason for flying somewhere. There are numerous long-haul airlines that see rationale to fly out of both SEA and YVR; SQ, JL, NH, KE, BA, AF, LH, TK, to mention a few - no need to list them all. Why not Air NZ or QF?

There are seriously large corporations based in the greater Seattle Washington area generating demand for business travel. This is on a much smaller scale across the border in BC, Canada. The market dynamics are different, although overlapping in the tourist / PNW / sight-seeing / VFR element. The population of the greater Seattle area is over 4m. Vancouver 2.6m. If NZ can support 4-5 flights to YVR year round in a VFR / tourist season market (note: AC also operates this route seasonally) why would they not be able to support a 3 weekly flight to SEA?
 
YYZORD
Posts: 682
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Mon Aug 29, 2022 9:55 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
As ZK-NCJ says below, more destinations P2P so less people connecting overall but tapping into new non stop routes and building demand.


I don't see AKL-CRP ever happening. The most important issue for the Australia/New Zealand - US market is avoiding having to make double connections in the US. Prior to the QF flights to DFW, many people in the southeastern US would have to make a connection at DFW, then a connection at LAX. AKL-DEN is problematic, because the airport is over a mile high. Even with a 16,000 foot long runway, it is still limited for high gross weights to take off from DEN to fly to AKL.


CRP? YYZ is another potential route.


AKL-YYZ would be a game changer considering AC's network to Europe and to an extent Domestic Canada/Transborder US. I mention Europe as YYZ you can avoid US CBP and transit through without entering Canada. Also AC was interested in doing a JV with NZ pre-covid, idk what happened to that.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 603
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:28 pm

YYZORD wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:

I don't see AKL-CRP ever happening. The most important issue for the Australia/New Zealand - US market is avoiding having to make double connections in the US. Prior to the QF flights to DFW, many people in the southeastern US would have to make a connection at DFW, then a connection at LAX. AKL-DEN is problematic, because the airport is over a mile high. Even with a 16,000 foot long runway, it is still limited for high gross weights to take off from DEN to fly to AKL.


CRP? YYZ is another potential route.


AKL-YYZ would be a game changer considering AC's network to Europe and to an extent Domestic Canada/Transborder US. I mention Europe as YYZ you can avoid US CBP and transit through without entering Canada. Also AC was interested in doing a JV with NZ pre-covid, idk what happened to that.



Not sure game changer is the best description. There are many 1 stop options to Europe through Asia and the Middle East from AKL. If going to any US cities you'd be best served via IAH, ORD or LAX/SFO.

Any flight to YYZ would be heavily reliant on eastern Canada traffic. How much of that is there ?
 
smi0006
Posts: 3132
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:05 pm

NTLDaz wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

CRP? YYZ is another potential route.


AKL-YYZ would be a game changer considering AC's network to Europe and to an extent Domestic Canada/Transborder US. I mention Europe as YYZ you can avoid US CBP and transit through without entering Canada. Also AC was interested in doing a JV with NZ pre-covid, idk what happened to that.



Not sure game changer is the best description. There are many 1 stop options to Europe through Asia and the Middle East from AKL. If going to any US cities you'd be best served via IAH, ORD or LAX/SFO.

Any flight to YYZ would be heavily reliant on eastern Canada traffic. How much of that is there ?


Can you internationally transit without clearing the border in Canada? I still can’t wrap my head around why anyone on AU/NZ would want to transit US and the border mess to get to EU when Asia/ME is so much easier! NZ-AKL-LAX-LHR, and TN PPT-LAX-CDG had special arrangements but still stressful and a mess and nightmare. Don’t think QFs experience was much better.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 13837
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:15 pm

smi0006 wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
YYZORD wrote:

AKL-YYZ would be a game changer considering AC's network to Europe and to an extent Domestic Canada/Transborder US. I mention Europe as YYZ you can avoid US CBP and transit through without entering Canada. Also AC was interested in doing a JV with NZ pre-covid, idk what happened to that.



Not sure game changer is the best description. There are many 1 stop options to Europe through Asia and the Middle East from AKL. If going to any US cities you'd be best served via IAH, ORD or LAX/SFO.

Any flight to YYZ would be heavily reliant on eastern Canada traffic. How much of that is there ?


Can you internationally transit without clearing the border in Canada? I still can’t wrap my head around why anyone on AU/NZ would want to transit US and the border mess to get to EU when Asia/ME is so much easier! NZ-AKL-LAX-LHR, and TN PPT-LAX-CDG had special arrangements but still stressful and a mess and nightmare. Don’t think QFs experience was much better.

Because when NZ flew AKL-LAX-LHR they had full 5th freedom rights on LAX-LHR (a large market). This was especially lucrative pre US-EU open skies when US airline’s access to LHR was restricted.

Ultimately the distance between NZ and LHR is so far that it is difficult if not impossible to be profitable on NZ-UK traffic alone. The increase in LHR competition out of LAX after open skies agreement squeezed NZ’s LAX-LHR profitability and with the UA JV in place it made more sense for NZ to cut London entirely (announced pre-Covid), especially as NZ also can’t profitably compete against the likes of the Mideast or Asian carriers if they wanted to shift 5th freedom route to one of their hubs.
 
smi0006
Posts: 3132
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:13 am

Polot wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:


Not sure game changer is the best description. There are many 1 stop options to Europe through Asia and the Middle East from AKL. If going to any US cities you'd be best served via IAH, ORD or LAX/SFO.

Any flight to YYZ would be heavily reliant on eastern Canada traffic. How much of that is there ?


Can you internationally transit without clearing the border in Canada? I still can’t wrap my head around why anyone on AU/NZ would want to transit US and the border mess to get to EU when Asia/ME is so much easier! NZ-AKL-LAX-LHR, and TN PPT-LAX-CDG had special arrangements but still stressful and a mess and nightmare. Don’t think QFs experience was much better.

Because when NZ flew AKL-LAX-LHR they had full 5th freedom rights on LAX-LHR (a large market). This was especially lucrative pre US-EU open skies when US airline’s access to LHR was restricted.

Ultimately the distance between NZ and LHR is so far that it is difficult if not impossible to be profitable on NZ-UK traffic alone. The increase in LHR competition out of LAX after open skies agreement squeezed NZ’s LAX-LHR profitability and with the UA JV in place it made more sense for NZ to cut London entirely (announced pre-Covid), especially as NZ also can’t profitably compete against the likes of the Mideast or Asian carriers if they wanted to shift 5th freedom route to one of their hubs.


Sorry I get the probability and operational component and distance wise why NZ flew the route. I was saying - I don’t understand why passengers would choose to. I tried it once due to a super cheap ticket and never again. As you point out these routes were for fifth freedom, and not profitable. I would not build a business case for any route incorporating transit to EU over the US.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4624
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:48 am

Question - could a QF-configured 380 do AKL-JFK-AKL without any payload restrictions?

It would be interesting to see QF consider using a 380 down the line, should the 789 be deemed more necessary elsewhere (limited fleet) and/or demand exceeds expectations.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 9150
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Tue Sep 06, 2022 10:11 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Question - could a QF-configured 380 do AKL-JFK-AKL without any payload restrictions?

It would be interesting to see QF consider using a 380 down the line, should the 789 be deemed more necessary elsewhere (limited fleet) and/or demand exceeds expectations.


JFK-AKL is blocked at 17:30
DFW-SYD is blocked at 16:45

I am pretty sure when QF were running the A380 DFW-SYD they were blocking 130 odd seats, I believe EK blocked a similar number on AKL-DXB which is a similar length flight. No aircraft could do JFK-AKL without any payload restrictions, weather a QF A380 which are reasonably early builds could do it with a viable load I don’t know. Which terminal will QF use at JFK? If it’s the same one BA use them I don’t think it can take A380s anyway.
 
ADDICT4QF
Posts: 48
Joined: Sun Feb 13, 2011 11:11 am

Re: Qantas announces 3 weekly AKL-JFK

Wed Sep 07, 2022 1:01 pm

dcajet wrote:
ADDICT4QF wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
MIA is unlikely given it doesn't really give any connection options not already offered by DFW and there is only limited O&D demand for the route. There has been talk about SEA but, once again, limited O&D and no real connections on top of those already offered by LAX and YVR means it remains unlikely.


MIA - with an aircraft of the right gauge and range - is actually a good market after serving and consolidating on the other main gateways. There is premium cabin demand, the AU-Florida market is a reasonable size (particularly with the growing cruise market) and opens up the Carribean (and an option to South American cities).


Not trying to be contrarian, but do you actually have numbers that speak to the size of the Florida - Australia market to would warrant direct flights? It seems to me that most Australians visiting FL do it after previously having been in California, Texas or NY,. As to demand to the Caribbean, why would most Australians or Kiwis bother with the Caribbean when they have paradise next door all over the South Pacific? Remember that California, whose economy is larger than the whole of Australia's can't even support consistent over time direct services to the Caribbean other than to Cancun?

As to South American demand to be funneled thru MIA... Well, the only two markets that have enough traffic for direct flights to AU/NZ and are currently not served are Argentina and Brazil. Clearly, connecting thru SCL is a no brainer. Why would they take the long way to down under? And even for LIM and BOG, the other two markets with some meaningful feed, SCL is, too, a no brainer.


Interesting article on possible future destinations.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... cago-miami

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