Qantas will resume flying to JFK from 14 June 23 flying AKL-JFK, 789 operating 3 weekly

Flight will originate in SYD

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... o-lounges/

Today I learned AKL-JFK is only ~7,700nm. I figured Project Sunrise came early.

Interesting, competing against NZ. Is the market on this route that big?

Christ that’s a massive stab at NZ! I’d be furious if I were them. I’m sure NZ will go after NZ-US point of sale with AU as a top up, and QF will be AU-US with NZ as a top up.

Interesting to see how connectivity goes. Much better transit experience than LAX was from AU once they improve the lounge. I see this being very popular from AU.

NZ will have been in market for 9 months by then. I imagine if they are happy with performance they’ll step up frequency prior to the QF launch.

smi0006 wrote:

Christ that’s a massive stab at NZ! I’d be furious if I were them. I’m sure NZ will go after NZ-US point of sale with AU as a top up, and QF will be AU-US with NZ as a top up.

Interesting to see how connectivity goes. Much better transit experience than LAX was from AU once they improve the lounge. I see this being very popular from AU.

It'll only be a temporary route. You can expect QF to can it once the Sunrise A350s arrive.

Qantas is getting a lot of hate at the moment but one must concede this is astute route planning

When the sunrise A350 arrives, SYD-JFK will be nonstop. AKL is really just a tech stop at the moment.

Very smart route, QF can not only get feed from SYD/MEL/BNE but if they relaunch other routes such as ADL or PER they can offer many more 1 stop connections to NYC. Theres also domestic feed thanks to Jetstar.
Plus they can keen on selling tickets via LAX or DFW on AA if people would rather connect there.

So essentially this is replacing the LAXJFK flight on QF. Smart, considering they could not carry local traffic on that sector.

I believe the last time QF flew AKL-USA was in 2012 when it dropped AKLLAX

Is this a Fifth Freedom route for QF?

Remember AA is now also flying DFW-AKL making journeys via AKL to AU better and faster soon.

Would this route be longer than a hypothetical ORD-SYD?

rjbesikof wrote:

Would this route be longer than a hypothetical ORD-SYD?

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=akl-jfk,+syd-ord

ORD-SYD is still a bit longer.

Well I didn’t expect that. Good on QF, this might be interesting with NZ starting next month AKL-JFK.

rjbesikof wrote:

Would this route be longer than a hypothetical ORD-SYD?

Au contraire. AKL-JFK is almost 400 nm shorter than ORD-SYD.

rjbesikof wrote:

Would this route be longer than a hypothetical ORD-SYD?

No
SYD-ORD is 14857kms whilst AKL-JFK is 14207kms. PER-LHR which seems to be about the max for the 789 is 14499kms.

Is this a Fifth Freedom route for QF?

NZ/AU is a single aviation market with carriers from either country being able to operate freely to and within for the other. For example, NZ used to operate a SYD-LAX service using 744s whilst QF used to operate its own AKL-LAX service with A332s.

I remember QF's idea of SYD-LAX-ORD (pulled right before the start in 2001) and SYD-AKL-DFW (good idea but pulled right around 9/11). Remember QF had the DFW idea for a long time and has waited for an aircraft that can take full payload DFW-SYD, DFW-MEL, AKL-JFK and A350ULR Project Sunrise.

DeltaRules wrote:

Is this a Fifth Freedom route for QF?

I doubt it because Australia and New Zealand are usually considered one common market. That said, this is surprising as I do not see the market supporting that much AKL to JFK. This would only be until Project Sunrise's planes are online and then AKL can be dropped for SYD nonstop (and MEL nonstop?).

That said, QF B789s are more premium than the NZ B789s that will ply the same AKL-JFK route.

x1234 wrote:

I remember QF's idea of SYD-LAX-ORD (pulled right before the start in 2001) and SYD-AKL-DFW (good idea but pulled right around 9/11). Remember QF had the DFW idea for a long time and has waited for an aircraft that can take full payload DFW-SYD, DFW-MEL, AKL-JFK and A350ULR Project Sunrise.

They're certainly not carrying a full payload. An A380 can carry its' maximum payload a little over 6,500nm and a B789 a little over 5,000nm. From this point fuel starts to displace revenue payload. Can they carry a full pax load? Certainly, not regularly on west bound sectors year round. The A380 used to pitstop for fuel at BNE westbound more than occasionally DFW-SYD runs.

This is actually a good route planning, adding capacity to SYD-AKL in the same time and more easy access from other eastern coast cities to the route as well.

Great Qantas is going as direct as they can to JFK avoiding LAX. They fly to San Francisco & DFW too. So with their two California gateways and the AA powerhouse hub in America's middle what's next, Miami ?

This is the schedule I've found on Qantas' website.

QF3 departs Auckland at 1700, then arrives at JFK by 1715, 16h 15mins block time
QF4 departs JFK at 1930, then arrives at Auckland by 0500 two days later. 17h 30 mins block time

jfk777 wrote:

Great Qantas is going as direct as they can to JFK avoiding LAX. They fly to San Francisco & DFW too. So with their two California gateways and the AA powerhouse hub in America's middle what's next, Miami ?

MIA is unlikely given it doesn't really give any connection options not already offered by DFW and there is only limited O&D demand for the route. There has been talk about SEA but, once again, limited O&D and no real connections on top of those already offered by LAX and YVR means it remains unlikely.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

Is this a Fifth Freedom route for QF?

I doubt it because Australia and New Zealand are usually considered one common market. That said, this is surprising as I do not see the market supporting that much AKL to JFK. This would only be until Project Sunrise's planes are online and then AKL can be dropped for SYD nonstop (and MEL nonstop?).

That said, QF B789s are more premium than the NZ B789s that will ply the same AKL-JFK route.

Until NZ's next batch of 787s start arriving next year, with there new onboard product with approx. 200 seats only.

Chances that these AKL-JFK-AKL fully crewed by cheaper New Zealand based JetConnect crew?

Initial sale fares are pretty attractive at around $6700 in J. Once sale ends, prices become less compelling with restricted J increasing to over $9K and fully flexible J nearly $12K. This compares with airlines such as JL which offers a one-stop from SYD that only takes 2.5 hours longer than QF3 and can easily be had for around $7500.

zkncj wrote:

Chances that these AKL-JFK-AKL fully crewed by cheaper New Zealand based JetConnect crew?

That is almost certainly correct. QF has done the same with QF9/10 which always has the PER-LHR sectors staffed with cheaper UK based crew.

tullamarine wrote:

zkncj wrote:

Chances that these AKL-JFK-AKL fully crewed by cheaper New Zealand based JetConnect crew?

That is almost certainly correct. QF has done the same with QF9/10 which always has the PER-LHR sectors staffed with cheaper UK based crew.

This was the case pre-covid, but post covid has seen many Aussie based crew (both SYD and MEL) do LHR on a 7 day trip pattern via PER.

tullamarine wrote:

Initial sale fares are pretty attractive at around $6700 in J. Once sale ends, prices become less compelling with restricted J increasing to over $9K and fully flexible J nearly $12K. This compares with airlines such as JL which offers a one-stop from SYD that only takes 2.5 hours longer than QF3 and can easily be had for around $7500.

All three countries involved use a dollar, so just using "$" says very little. Is it AUD, NZD or USD?

This is one of those "why didn't I think of this before?!" moments haha

So, features of this change:
- Swapping LAX stopover for AKL (Decreasing overall travel time, particularly ground time while increasing catchment to include North Island)
- Increasing ex-AU traffic from out-of-range/thin ports (Connecting pax from ADL, PER, SYD, MEL, BNE)-

And just to clear things up:
SYD-AKL is 2,164 km
AKL-JFK is 14,207 km
For a total trip length of 16,371km

SYD-LAX is 12,051 km
LAX-JFK is 3,983 km
For a total trip length of 16,034 km

Closest measures:
AKL-IAH is 11,933km

So the trip via LAX is 337km shorter (GC) than the trip via AKL or roughly 20-30 minutes flying time faster, keeping in mind the LAX route, especially in the winter, deviates toward New Zealand to take advantage of the brave west winds. Hence, the actual flying time difference is negligible I would think.

Now, the 11-strong QF B787-9 fleet is expected to be joined by the last 3 aircraft from the 14 aircraft order (VH-ZNL/M/N of which L and M have VH- regs painted but neither yet on CASA registry)
The fleet is rated for an MTOW of 254 ton and MZFW of 181 ton (as with all B787-9s thus far). AJ has said that the addition of these last 3 aircraft will enable them to operate this flight thrice-weekly.

The 787-9 is loaded for 158 ton ZFW and 96 ton of fuel to reach 7600nm (approx length of AKL-JFK GCD), the fuel eats into about 23 ton of payload capacity. This checks out assuming 16.5hrs ft (based on the ~14hr ft of NZ28 IAH-AKL) and 5.7t fuel/hr burn rate. Further assumptions of ~130t OEW gives 28t for pax, luggage. Given ~240 on board with 60/40 m/f total pax weight is 18t with baggage at max weight assuming gold members in each class for 787-9 config is 11.5t giving 29.5t. Now I'm not in the industry so I don't know operational practices but I assume they would just block off a few Y seats or enforce a baggage limit for the flight considering many of the users will (ideally) be on business trips of 3-5 days. -> Lots of assumptions, its ballpark, don't take it seriously

Interestingly, it uses the old HNL flight number (QF3/4) which was said to be returning soon and also, the service is billed by QF for a ft of 16hr 15min which seems a bit optimistic to me

For reference:
QF11 last flight to JFK before services terminated (All times local)
Date of Departure: 18 Mar 2020 Origin: Los Angeles (LAX) Destination: New York (JFK) Aircraft: B789 (VH-ZNC) Ft: 4:18 Dep: 08:20 Arr: 16:30
Date of Departure: 18 Mar 2020 Origin: Sydney (SYD) Destination: Los Angeles (LAX) Aircraft: A388 (VH-OQL) Ft: 13:13 Arr: 10:10 Arr: 06:00

QF3 first service to JFK as services resume across the network
Date of Departure: 14 Jun 2022 Origin: Auckland (AKL) Destination: New York (JFK) Aircraft: B789 (VH-ZN*) Ft: 16:30 Dep: 17:00 Arr: 17:15
Date of Departure: 14 Jun 2022 Origin: Sydney (SYD) Destination: Auckland (AKL) Aircraft: B789 (VH-ZN*) Ft: 2:30 Dep: 09:45 Arr: 14:50

tullamarine wrote:

jfk777 wrote:

Great Qantas is going as direct as they can to JFK avoiding LAX. They fly to San Francisco & DFW too. So with their two California gateways and the AA powerhouse hub in America's middle what's next, Miami ?

MIA is unlikely given it doesn't really give any connection options not already offered by DFW and there is only limited O&D demand for the route. There has been talk about SEA but, once again, limited O&D and no real connections on top of those already offered by LAX and YVR means it remains unlikely.

MIA - with an aircraft of the right gauge and range - is actually a good market after serving and consolidating on the other main gateways. There is premium cabin demand, the AU-Florida market is a reasonable size (particularly with the growing cruise market) and opens up the Carribean (and an option to South American cities).

Ellofiend wrote:

This is one of those "why didn't I think of this before?!" moments haha

So, features of this change:
- Swapping LAX stopover for AKL (Decreasing overall travel time, particularly ground time while increasing catchment to include North Island)
- Increasing ex-AU traffic from out-of-range/thin ports (Connecting pax from ADL, PER, SYD, MEL, BNE)-

And just to clear things up:
SYD-AKL is 2,164 km
AKL-JFK is 14,207 km
For a total trip length of 16,371km

SYD-LAX is 12,051 km
LAX-JFK is 3,983 km
For a total trip length of 16,034 km

Closest measures:
AKL-IAH is 11,933km

So the trip via LAX is 337km shorter (GC) than the trip via AKL or roughly 20-30 minutes flying time faster, keeping in mind the LAX route, especially in the winter, deviates toward New Zealand to take advantage of the brave west winds. Hence, the actual flying time difference is negligible I would think.

Now, the 11-strong QF B787-9 fleet is expected to be joined by the last 3 aircraft from the 14 aircraft order (VH-ZNL/M/N of which L and M have VH- regs painted but neither yet on CASA registry)
The fleet is rated for an MTOW of 254 ton and MZFW of 181 ton (as with all B787-9s thus far). AJ has said that the addition of these last 3 aircraft will enable them to operate this flight thrice-weekly.

The 787-9 is loaded for 158 ton ZFW and 96 ton of fuel to reach 7600nm (approx length of AKL-JFK GCD), the fuel eats into about 23 ton of payload capacity. This checks out assuming 16.5hrs ft (based on the ~14hr ft of NZ28 IAH-AKL) and 5.7t fuel/hr burn rate. Further assumptions of ~130t OEW gives 28t for pax, luggage. Given ~240 on board with 60/40 m/f total pax weight is 18t with baggage at max weight assuming gold members in each class for 787-9 config is 11.5t giving 29.5t. Now I'm not in the industry so I don't know operational practices but I assume they would just block off a few Y seats or enforce a baggage limit for the flight considering many of the users will (ideally) be on business trips of 3-5 days. -> Lots of assumptions, its ballpark, don't take it seriously

I don’t think AKL is connected to PER or ADL on QF, just NZ. Maybe OOL still is? Although AJ is quoted in Executive traveller stating more Tasman connections may come -

“hopefully more destinations flying into Auckland that will connect with, that so we provide one stop from all of the major capitals in Australia.”

Interesting AJ this this route will stay post sunrise -

“When we do Sydney-New York, we take it that there probably will (still) be a market for Auckland-New York, as there’s a lot of routes we take to be complementary to each other, and potentially serve a slightly different market… we’re optimistic that this will be maintained even post-Sunrise.”

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... d-new-york

smi0006 wrote:

]


I don’t think AKL is connected to PER or ADL on QF, just NZ. Maybe OOL still is? Although AJ is quoted in Executive traveller stating more Tasman connections may come -

OOL-AKL is 1-2x daily on JQ, during the Tasman Bubble last year QF flew it daily. I think they also did CNS too during the short lived bubble.

QF doesn’t currently fly PER/ADL to AKL, they have done in the past.

Could be that the a220s get used to link AKL with some of the smaller ports?

MalevTU134 wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

Initial sale fares are pretty attractive at around $6700 in J. Once sale ends, prices become less compelling with restricted J increasing to over $9K and fully flexible J nearly $12K. This compares with airlines such as JL which offers a one-stop from SYD that only takes 2.5 hours longer than QF3 and can easily be had for around $7500.

All three countries involved use a dollar, so just using "$" says very little. Is it AUD, NZD or USD?

AUD

ADDICT4QF wrote:

MIA - with an aircraft of the right gauge and range - is actually a good market after serving and consolidating on the other main gateways. There is premium cabin demand, the AU-Florida market is a reasonable size (particularly with the growing cruise market) and opens up the Carribean (and an option to South American cities).

The issue with Miami is that there's not a lot of corporate demand from Australia to Miami. And most Australians will visit Miami as an add-on to a US trip, most will visit LA & or Vegas on the same trip.

So MIA is probably best served as an AA connection from the LA or DFW flights, same with destinations such as Mexico.

melpax wrote:

ADDICT4QF wrote:

MIA - with an aircraft of the right gauge and range - is actually a good market after serving and consolidating on the other main gateways. There is premium cabin demand, the AU-Florida market is a reasonable size (particularly with the growing cruise market) and opens up the Carribean (and an option to South American cities).

The issue with Miami is that there's not a lot of corporate demand from Australia to Miami. And most Australians will visit Miami as an add-on to a US trip, most will visit LA & or Vegas on the same trip.

So MIA is probably best served as an AA connection from the LA or DFW flights, same with destinations such as Mexico.

Leisure demand predominantly fills premium cabins to North America (even pre-COVID). Corporate demand is very day of week specific (and typically has huge volume-based discounting) so it is not as high yielding on-average as everyone may think.

To grow in the market, the more points/hubs you hit in the USA vs adding more seats to existing hubs and relying on one-stop options and partner availability/network, the more successful you will be in having lucrative/niche direct and open-jaw offerings.

Technical point to flag in this is that it illustrates again the quite different payload/range optimisation of 789 vs A359/35K. A350s could do Sydney-NYK non-stop. 789 even in QF’s low-density configuration needs a technical stop in Auckland.

tealnz wrote:

Technical point to flag in this is that it illustrates again the quite different payload/range optimisation of 789 vs A359/35K. A350s could do Sydney-NYK non-stop. 789 even in QF’s low-density configuration needs a technical stop in Auckland.

Correction: modified A350s designed for ULR can do the route nonstop (project sunrise). Let’s not act like your bog standard A350 can fly SYD-NYC nonstop no issue.

Polot wrote:

tealnz wrote:

Technical point to flag in this is that it illustrates again the quite different payload/range optimisation of 789 vs A359/35K. A350s could do Sydney-NYK non-stop. 789 even in QF’s low-density configuration needs a technical stop in Auckland.

Correction: modified A350s designed for ULR can do the route nonstop (project sunrise). Let’s not act like your bog standard A350 can fly SYD-NYC nonstop no issue.

Perhaps SYD-JFK or more like JFK-SYD is just a long way.

Other announcement with this is that Qantas is finally upgrading it's Auckland lounge - with a new International lounge (combined Business/ First).

Also means a much better J, and PE on the SYD-AKL routes.
QF3 isn't great being a mid-morning departure, effectively wasting a day.
But the return QF4 is timed early morning just after the first 737 departure.

I find this comment interesting - In addition to connecting flights from the east coast capitals, Joyce aims to see “hopefully more destinations flying into Auckland that will connect with, that so we provide one stop from all of the major capitals in Australia.”

It will be interesting to see whether this means re-launching ADL, CNS and PER flights to AKL, and/or launching new CBR, DRW, HBA, NTL, OOL and other flights to AKL. The QF E190s have only 94 seats, which are far more suitable for these smaller centres. Meanwhile, NZ has nothing in this capacity range to compete - its smallest international frame is a 168 seat 320. The A220s, being delivered from late-2023 (only a few months after AKL-JFK starts), could also work.

And if these new flights from Australia to AKL eventuate, I also wonder whether they, plus the investment in a new AKL lounge, could increase the feasibility of QF launching AKL-GRU or GIG flights, with GIG also mentioned in Project Sunrise ambitions, and unable to be flown non-stop from Australia for now. QF has previously flown to South America via AKL (albeit, to EZE), as it did to North America (to LAX). And LA continues to service Australia from South America via AKL.

tullamarine wrote:

It'll only be a temporary route. You can expect QF to can it once the Sunrise A350s arrive.

3D101CA wrote:

When the sunrise A350 arrives, SYD-JFK will be nonstop. AKL is really just a tech stop at the moment.

Alan Joyce said today that "we’re optimistic that this will be maintained even post-Sunrise."

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... d-new-york

moa999 wrote:

Other announcement with this is that Qantas is finally upgrading it's Auckland lounge - with a new International lounge (combined Business/ First).

Also means a much better J, and PE on the SYD-AKL routes.
QF3 isn't great being a mid-morning departure, effectively wasting a day.
But the return QF4 is timed early morning just after the first 737 departure.

QF run A330s and have and will again in NW run a daily 789 SYD-AKL.

1700 departure ex AKL arrives JFK 1715 which connects well from MEL/BNE services, I don’t know how much later you would want to arrive into JFK? Which is why it departs SYD when it does, it’s not about the SYD-AKL timing but the JFK timing.

ZK-NBT wrote:

moa999 wrote:

Other announcement with this is that Qantas is finally upgrading it's Auckland lounge - with a new International lounge (combined Business/ First).

Also means a much better J, and PE on the SYD-AKL routes.
QF3 isn't great being a mid-morning departure, effectively wasting a day.
But the return QF4 is timed early morning just after the first 737 departure.

QF run A330s and have and will again in NW run a daily 789 SYD-AKL.

1700 departure ex AKL arrives JFK 1715 which connects well from MEL/BNE services, I don’t know how much later you would want to arrive into JFK? Which is why it departs SYD when it does, it’s not about the SYD-AKL timing but the JFK timing.

Agreed. If you were flying SYD-JFK via LAX pre-pandemic, the departure was around mid-to-late morning SYD anyway. This is all actually a great, interim solution to bridge to Project Sunrise. The LAX connection was always less than seamless, even if in the same terminal and the LAX-JFK-LAX QF flight was often running late.

The JFK arrival timing is about the NYC market. This route isn't going to be about connections beyond JFK on AA.

There are better ways to London from Oz, but the timing of these flights makes LHR connections on AA/BA pretty useful for a Kiwi.

tullamarine wrote:

It'll only be a temporary route. You can expect QF to can it once the Sunrise A350s arrive.

Agreed.

This route is best thought of as a "preview" of Project Sunrise. Drums up excitement. I don't think New Zealanders are the target market here although I'm sure QF will price the route reasonably attractively for them if the planes aren't full enough.

ADDICT4QF wrote:

MIA - with an aircraft of the right gauge and range - is actually a good market after serving and consolidating on the other main gateways. There is premium cabin demand, the AU-Florida market is a reasonable size (particularly with the growing cruise market) and opens up the Carribean (and an option to South American cities).

You'd have to be a special kind of crazy to fly from Australia to S.America via MIA when you have SCL and EZE as options, and even DFW would save you hours.
What MIA does offer apart from its own reasonable O&D traffic is connections to the Southeast U.S. and Europe on both AA and partners.

airbazar wrote:

ADDICT4QF wrote:

MIA - with an aircraft of the right gauge and range - is actually a good market after serving and consolidating on the other main gateways. There is premium cabin demand, the AU-Florida market is a reasonable size (particularly with the growing cruise market) and opens up the Carribean (and an option to South American cities).

You'd have to be a special kind of crazy to fly from Australia to S.America via MIA when you have SCL and EZE as options, and even DFW would save you hours.
What MIA does offer apart from its own reasonable O&D traffic is connections to the Southeast U.S. and Europe on both AA and partners.

And you’d have to be a special kind of crazy to fly from Australia to Europe via MIA when you have DXB/SIN/name any Mideast/Asian hub as options.

Southeast US connections are also faster via DFW vs MIA.

jfk777 wrote:

Great Qantas is going as direct as they can to JFK avoiding LAX. They fly to San Francisco & DFW too. So with their two California gateways and the AA powerhouse hub in America's middle what's next, Miami ?

Well there’s always ambitions for ORD, but it never works out.

Don’t forget that QF also flies to HNL!

SYD-LAX
SYD-SFO
SYD-DFW
SYD-HNL
SYD-AKL-JFK
MEL-LAX
MEL-DFW
BNE-LAX

aemoreira1981 wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

Is this a Fifth Freedom route for QF?

I doubt it because Australia and New Zealand are usually considered one common market. That said, this is surprising as I do not see the market supporting that much AKL to JFK. This would only be until Project Sunrise's planes are online and then AKL can be dropped for SYD nonstop (and MEL nonstop?).

That said, QF B789s are more premium than the NZ B789s that will ply the same AKL-JFK route.

Alan Joyce said in the ET article that Qantas will stay on this AKL to JFK route long term. They probably will increase the route to daily and push Air NZ off the route altogether. The market certainly won't be big enough for two airlines.
This announcement today of them starting this route will be a real kick to the guts to Air NZ.