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JohanTally
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 1:10 pm

enzo011 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:

SQ operates to LAX with the standard longhaul A350, the 777-200LR is also basically a flying fuel tank and QF operate the 787 with way less seats than other operators. Where do you draw the line for what counts and what doesn’t.

SQ also operated NYC with the 3 class A350 in the past.

The NYC flights that used the 3 class A350 were essentially cargo flights with less than 100 passengers because the ULR has an inop forward cargo hold. Singapore has just started truly opening to foreigners this week.



Surely you need to exclude the 787 that are not "standard" and have less seats to make the flight? So exclude the Qantas flights as they have fewer seats than expected in the 789. That leaves us with the longest flight on an A380 - DXB to AKL. The other flights have not flown yet so not sure why they are included as yet. Then comes the SIN-LAX flight on a standard A359.

Anyone can play that game and squint and make yourself feel good about your favoured OEM.

JL NH and EY have less seats than QF in many of their 789s and AA is about to take delivery of 244 seaters. The SQ A359ULR doesn't have a single Y seat so a QF 789 has 46.5% more seats total. Also we're comparing an already smaller aircraft with a 10% lower MTOW that has more Y seats than the SQ ULR has including all cabins. The QF is a lower density aircraft but hardly unique like a SQ ULR.
 
djpearman
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 2:23 pm

I'd be intrigued to know how much impact the 787 production issues and delivery delays have on this RFP.
 
Ellofiend
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 3:39 pm

Im gonna throw my hat in the ring with:
A380 keeps current routes
A350-1000 for JFK, LHR, JNB & DFW (12 +8 -> 20)
B787-9 for SCL, CPT, GRU, SEA, YVR, SFO, FCO & CDG (14 +10 -> 24)
B787-10 for HND, ICN, DEL, SIN, PVG & HKG (0+16 -> 16)
A321XLR for CGK, MNL, KIX, HNL & BKK (20 +10 -> 30)
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 3:55 pm

A feasible permutation that I don't think has been mentioned so far:

A339s slowly replace A332/333s, with QF running a mixed ceo / neo fleet for some years, leveraging commonality advantages.
A359s replace B789s at QF
The displaced "used" 789s go from QF to Jetstar.
 
rfarlz
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 5:23 pm

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
Whilst I would love QF to adopt a A330neo & A350 fleet, its hard for me to imagine a world where QF wouldn’t just transfer over some JQ 787-8 and order more 787-9 to keep commonality and control capex. I doubt they would get the 787-10, QF has more to gain by increasing frequency by adding flights from MEL/BNE rather than just upgauging from SYD.

Also, in theory the 251T A330neo could also reach the West Coast of the US. I think we have to scrub the idea that an a330 only has legs to reach SIN.

JohanTally wrote:
For whatever reason on the world's longest flights(except SQ 359ULR routes) airlines seem to prefer the 789 for ULH. Just an observation

https://onemileatatime.com/guides/longe ... the-world/


I mean there are more A350 than 787 routes on the list you just linked.


Every single route on this list operated by an airline that operates both A350s and 787s is operated by an A350
 
jbs2886
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 5:41 pm

rfarlz wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
Whilst I would love QF to adopt a A330neo & A350 fleet, its hard for me to imagine a world where QF wouldn’t just transfer over some JQ 787-8 and order more 787-9 to keep commonality and control capex. I doubt they would get the 787-10, QF has more to gain by increasing frequency by adding flights from MEL/BNE rather than just upgauging from SYD.

Also, in theory the 251T A330neo could also reach the West Coast of the US. I think we have to scrub the idea that an a330 only has legs to reach SIN.

JohanTally wrote:
For whatever reason on the world's longest flights(except SQ 359ULR routes) airlines seem to prefer the 789 for ULH. Just an observation

https://onemileatatime.com/guides/longe ... the-world/


I mean there are more A350 than 787 routes on the list you just linked.


Every single route on this list operated by an airline that operates both A350s and 787s is operated by an A350


That's a way out of context take and its two airlines. First, SQ only operates the 787-10, which isn't an ULR aircraft and your statement suggests that it is but the A350 is used instead because its better. Second, Qatar only has 7 789s (again, 788 is not the ULR bird) and they're configured it in a much more dense configuration than the A350s.

They are both very good ULR aircraft. There isn't a clear winner IMO and what an airline uses is heavily dependent on configuration.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:05 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
A feasible permutation that I don't think has been mentioned so far:

A339s slowly replace A332/333s, with QF running a mixed ceo / neo fleet for some years, leveraging commonality advantages.
A359s replace B789s at QF
The displaced "used" 789s go from QF to Jetstar.

I'm sure QF pilots would love for wholly owned subsidiaries to take on more widebody flying
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:19 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
A feasible permutation that I don't think has been mentioned so far:

A339s slowly replace A332/333s, with QF running a mixed ceo / neo fleet for some years, leveraging commonality advantages.
A359s replace B789s at QF
The displaced "used" 789s go from QF to Jetstar.

Jetstar was looking at possibly unloading 788s before Covid, they don’t need 14 789. Their wide body future is very cloudy with all the XLRs coming in.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 9:51 pm

Opus99 wrote:
zeke wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
Exercising those 20 options would be perfectly reasonable.


They let 15 options expire in 2018 "Qantas will let the first of its 15 Boeing 787 options lapse later this month, CEO Alan Joyce has told Reuters."

https://australianaviation.com.au/2018/ ... ion-lapse/

How does letting one of the 15 mean they let all 15 expire?


It doesn't. But hey, don't let careful reading spoil a good no one wants Boeing narrative.

The 787 role at JetStar might be at play in this too. We'll see. All of this is interesting because really it's not a great quantity of planes. It does make sense to phase something out with this replacement as the type fleet sizes are small.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:40 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
A feasible permutation that I don't think has been mentioned so far:

A339s slowly replace A332/333s, with QF running a mixed ceo / neo fleet for some years, leveraging commonality advantages.
A359s replace B789s at QF
The displaced "used" 789s go from QF to Jetstar.


The plan before JQ took the 788s was that they would later offload those to QF in exchange for new 789s, JQ got the 788 in 2013. Perhaps the 788d to QF would have helped replace the 763 which retired at the end of 2014, but the 788 is fairly similar in size to the A332, the 763 at QF was extensively used domestically SYD/MEL/BNE where the A332 is and the 788 would have taken to long to turn. They didn’t need 2 wide body types for that anyway. The 788 may have gone into medium haul also however. Now the question is how many 788s JQ will need going forward as the A321LR comes along.

Realistically it’s a struggle to see the 330NEO at QF given the 787/350 series can do most routes and give flexibility, obviously A35K on sunrise routes. I see mainly 787s to replace the A330s but they may get some A359s as well with J, W, Y and the 789s go J, Y only. While the 781 doesn’t have the range of the 789/359 they could go that way as a direct A333 replacement into Asia if they need that capacity.
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:55 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
zeke wrote:

They let 15 options expire in 2018 "Qantas will let the first of its 15 Boeing 787 options lapse later this month, CEO Alan Joyce has told Reuters."

https://australianaviation.com.au/2018/ ... ion-lapse/

How does letting one of the 15 mean they let all 15 expire?


It doesn't. But hey, don't let careful reading spoil a good no one wants Boeing narrative.

The 787 role at JetStar might be at play in this too. We'll see. All of this is interesting because really it's not a great quantity of planes. It does make sense to phase something out with this replacement as the type fleet sizes are small.


The future of the 788 at JQ is interesting- we are all speculating if JQ require them, was their public confirmation they were ever looking to sell three or was that a rumour? They do have some routes where the range is required - ICN, HNL, NRT. And I’m sure QF cargo sell the belly space as a group wide allocation.

To me more 789 in a less premium config, and 787-10 make most sense- although maybe too big? Means greater flexibility they can add frequencies to MEL/BNE/SYD/PER to FCO,LAX,SFO,DFW,YVR etc long thin routes, whilst also mixing in flying into Asia maximising utilisation. 330NEO can’t do many of those routes. Fleet flexibility has been a focus of QF the 744 was always too big for them, and the 767/330 lacked the range for many routes. Who knows what the future will bring, if I was an airline I’d want a fleet that can match demand.

Also gives QF flexibility to shift some over to JQ should the need arise. With a second wave of 350s replacing the 380s down the track.
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:05 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
As others have said above, I'm not too sure that the A330NEO would be in the running here because there is really no need for it. Unlike Garuda, MH etc QF isn't located in the heart of Asia and needs a flexible aircraft family that can do routes such as MEL-HND and MEL- DEL non-stop year round. So I can see A350's or 787's being picked but couldn't see others as realistically being in the race unless QF got an absolutely unbelievable deal.

In relation to future domestic flying, widebodies will still fly domestically on transcon services for many, many years to come. Even with A321's, and we haven't seen the config yet, there is still going to be a need for the lift of an A330 sized aircraft for peak hour golden triangle services and for trans-con. So this aircraft, whichever they pick, will also be used for those as well.

Also unlikely that we'll see any replacement of the A330's until at least the 2026 to 2027 mark. QF already have A350's, A321's and A220's coming in in fairly large numbers with Jetstar on top of this so trying to fit this replacement in as well might stretch the Balance Sheet a little too far.


Widebodies will continue playing a role in domestic service, but a less prominent role. With the exception of Perth, the larger A321 will diminish the importance of A330s vis 737s. 4x A321s per hour from SYD-MEL is roughly equivalent passenger capacity to 3x 73H plus 1x A332. In fact it’s marginally more seats. The operating cost of 4x A321 is likely much lower as well.

QF occasionally operated 787s on SYD/MEL/BNE flights before Covid, plus SYD-AKL and of course MEL/SYD-PER as part of QF8/9 and QF5/6. They will have a very good idea of the type’s operating costs on shortish flight costs against A330s on the same routes.


I think you’ve hit the nail on the head around the 321s vs 330 domestically- I’d say almost all golden triangle (SYD/MEL/BNE) flying will eventually be 321s - it’s a cheaper way to add capacity, and releases frames better used to Asia/Tasman. Anecdotally even now I feel there is less 330 flying between SYD and MEL. 321s domestically every 15mins reminds me of the old 767/330 CityFlyer days.

Transcon it interesting- frequency to PER is less important due to the time zones, but maybe greater peak period flying? Is cargo key, or will new freights take care of that? If PER grows as a hub, 789s SYD/MEL/BNE - PER will be daily anywho before heading on to LHR,FCO,JNB. If more PER wide body flying comes to fruition it’s not hard to imagine the only widebodies Transcon will be international through services. And 321s outside of this.
 
randomdude83
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:28 am

Does anyone have insight as to QF's experience with the 787? are they reliable or do they experience issues with them? the reason i ask is because QF has had many chances over the years to top there 787 order but elected for other types which i find interesting.

Edit just to add that in my opinion, this will go a330neo and a321 most likely.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:58 am

randomdude83 wrote:
Does anyone have insight as to QF's experience with the 787? are they reliable or do they experience issues with them? the reason i ask is because QF has had many chances over the years to top there 787 order but elected for other types which i find interesting.

Edit just to add that in my opinion, this will go a330neo and a321 most likely.


QF seem to be happy with the 787, I don’t think there are any QF specific issues. QF ordered 6 787s in 2018, 3 delivered and 3 delayed. What other types have they ordered instead though other than A350s where the 787 wasn’t in the running.

Remember flexibility which is why I and many others don’t see A330NEOs. They want aircraft that can cover most routes. Opinion only but also trying to read between the lines of what QF have been saying. A long haul fleet of 787s and A350s in 10 or so years.
 
rfarlz
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:10 am

jbs2886 wrote:
rfarlz wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
Whilst I would love QF to adopt a A330neo & A350 fleet, its hard for me to imagine a world where QF wouldn’t just transfer over some JQ 787-8 and order more 787-9 to keep commonality and control capex. I doubt they would get the 787-10, QF has more to gain by increasing frequency by adding flights from MEL/BNE rather than just upgauging from SYD.

Also, in theory the 251T A330neo could also reach the West Coast of the US. I think we have to scrub the idea that an a330 only has legs to reach SIN.



I mean there are more A350 than 787 routes on the list you just linked.


Every single route on this list operated by an airline that operates both A350s and 787s is operated by an A350


That's a way out of context take and its two airlines. First, SQ only operates the 787-10, which isn't an ULR aircraft and your statement suggests that it is but the A350 is used instead because its better. Second, Qatar only has 7 789s (again, 788 is not the ULR bird) and they're configured it in a much more dense configuration than the A350s.

They are both very good ULR aircraft. There isn't a clear winner IMO and what an airline uses is heavily dependent on configuration.


Sorry, could have been more obvious but was trying to highlight the absurdity of the original post. Both are great ULH aircraft and most airlines are just using whatever is available with the legs.

I'm very interested to see what QF will do with their ULH flights and this WB order. As you've highlighted there aren't really any airlines that operate both A350s and B789s in ULH appropriate configs, QF will likely be the first.
 
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flee
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:17 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Remember flexibility which is why I and many others don’t see A330NEOs. They want aircraft that can cover most routes. Opinion only but also trying to read between the lines of what QF have been saying. A long haul fleet of 787s and A350s in 10 or so years.

Currently A330Ceos are mainly flying 4-5 hour flights on the shorter routes and 7-8 hours on the longer ones. So the A330Neo should have no problems on any of these routes. Over the longer term, the A380s will need to be replaced and the A350-1000s will begin that process. But the A350s are not a 1 for 1 replacement for A380s and QF will need something to supplement them.

This is where it gets interesting - that makes the A330 replacement something of a transitional fleet that will touch both the long haul as well as the domestic short-medium haul operations. This does suggest a B787/A350 split order - 787-10 for A333 capacity and some A350-1000 for long range with higher capacity - with A321s taking over more of the domestic flying.
 
rfarlz
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:54 am

My take on all the options:

A339 - The most capex friendly option, which is important for an airline that doesn't lease much of its fleet and also has a lot of other planes on order. Fuel burn should be pretty close to the B789 on the routes the A332 and A333 are currently operating, which are reasonably short, while being able to cover most current 789 routes in a pinch as well (PER-LHR/FCO and SYD/MEL-DFW are the only ones I can think of, SYD-SCL might be a stretch too). Previous posters have also pointed out that phasing the A339 into the fleet slowly while the A333s and older A332s are retired gradually would be the least disruptive option.

B789/B78X - Firstly I don't see the B78X being ordered, if QF wants an aircraft between the B789 and A35K, I think the route flexibility the A359 offers at a similar size is too appealing. The B789 makes sense if QF sees a need to reduce fleet types as much as possible. They have plenty of experience operating it on a huge range of sector lengths and will have a deep understanding of how well it performs on the shorter segments that the A330s are currently used on. I don't see any other single aircraft being as appropriate for operating all of their current WB routes.

A359 - likely too big to replace all of the A330 flying, but it's certainly possible it could replace the top end of the A330 range/capacity while having the B789 backfill some of the smaller gauge A332 routes. This would require some B789 reconfigurations which isn't cheap though. The A359 gives QF some flexibility with gauge on their ULH flights with the A35K, and also allows more right sizing of routes with a ULH capable aircraft between the B789 and A35K in size.

Personally I see a split B789/A359 order. This would give QF huge flexibility with all their WB aircraft capable to perform all of their routes (except sunrise), while also allowing some gauge flexibility as well. Ultimately reducing their WB fleet to two types is a huge benefit too.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:00 am

I'd say the 330neo is out of the running. QF would want less fleet types and there's nothing the 330neo offers the 787-9/10 doesn't.

A351 in a high density config for the eventually 380 replacement, and even A359 could be in the mix for an upper end 333 replacement.

Don't forget the replacement type doesn't have to match the exact seating capacity of it's predecessor. The 230 seat 789 was the stated replacement for the 360-410 seat 744.

In terms of the aircraft that will replace the passengers the QF 332/3's are currently carrying I believe this will mostly be the 321XLR. 20J/180Y config 321XLR isn't too far off the two smallest configs of QF's 332's, which are 26J/204-226Y. They have 134 Airbus narrowbody types on order. 20 223's to replace the 717, and then I predict another 20 of those to replace/supplement E195 or F100 used in other subsidiaries. And then well over 90 A321XLR's to not only replace all the 738s, but also a substantial proportion of 332 routes domestically and SE Asia and also open up new routes. I live in Perth and rumoured new routes they're looking at for the 321XLR from here include PER-HKG, SGN, HKT and somewhere in SE India, maybe BLR.

The only destination the 321XLR can't really do that the current 332 fleet does from Australia is Japan and Korea, except the 321 can just make BNE-NRT. So whatever replaces the 332/3 flying there will have to be a longer range 330neo/787/350 family aircraft, but apart from Japan/Korea the entirely of current QF A330 route network could be replaced by the much cheaper operated, crewed and fuel efficient 321XLR. So if QF are going to buy new widebodies to replace the current A332/333 aircraft then I think they'll mostly be operated on other routes.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:21 am

I can't see Qantas increasing the number of aircraft types. To me it seems Qantas in 10 years time will only operator the following aircraft.

A220-300
A321XLR
787-9
A350-1000ULR

That is an excellent fleet. Qantas has 90+ purchase rights for additional A321 and A220. It would not surprise me if the A330CEO gets replaced entirely with the A321XLR and the 787 does the small number of A330CEO routes.

Qantas could get back the Jetstar 787-8 aircraft which already have a domestic higher density cabin. Jetstar could go A321XLR for all the current 787-8 routes.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 9:04 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
I'd say the 330neo is out of the running. QF would want less fleet types and there's nothing the 330neo offers the 787-9/10 doesn't.


RJMAZ wrote:
I can't see Qantas increasing the number of aircraft types. To me it seems Qantas in 10 years time will only operator the following aircraft.

A220-300
A321XLR
787-9
A350-1000ULR


Why all the talk of increasing aircraft types when it comes to the A330neo? Qantas already has A330 in the fleet so it would not be adding a new type. Maybe if there was no A330 in their fleet those arguments would have merit. I don't see anyone saying they only have to get 788 and 789 as adding the 78X would be a new type.

I assume they have crew trained for the A330 so there would be minimal training to get them to the A330neo. But if you buy 787's to replace the A330 all those crew on the A330 will need to be retrained on the 787, right? We can assume the 787 will be more expensive than the A330neo, it is more expensive to build (rate has gone down unless we are now arguing that economies of scale is not a factor) and it has just had a long delay so margins will be tough for Boeing so the price would not be as cheap as they could offer years ago. Add in training costs for those that will be moved to a new fleet, then just dismissing the A330neo seems a bit quick for me.
 
NZ321
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 9:41 am

enzo011 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
I'd say the 330neo is out of the running. QF would want less fleet types and there's nothing the 330neo offers the 787-9/10 doesn't.


RJMAZ wrote:
I can't see Qantas increasing the number of aircraft types. To me it seems Qantas in 10 years time will only operator the following aircraft.

A220-300
A321XLR
787-9
A350-1000ULR


Why all the talk of increasing aircraft types when it comes to the A330neo? Qantas already has A330 in the fleet so it would not be adding a new type. Maybe if there was no A330 in their fleet those arguments would have merit. I don't see anyone saying they only have to get 788 and 789 as adding the 78X would be a new type.

I assume they have crew trained for the A330 so there would be minimal training to get them to the A330neo. But if you buy 787's to replace the A330 all those crew on the A330 will need to be retrained on the 787, right? We can assume the 787 will be more expensive than the A330neo, it is more expensive to build (rate has gone down unless we are now arguing that economies of scale is not a factor) and it has just had a long delay so margins will be tough for Boeing so the price would not be as cheap as they could offer years ago. Add in training costs for those that will be moved to a new fleet, then just dismissing the A330neo seems a bit quick for me.


Fully agree. And can't see QF only purchasing the A350 for just the ULR "sunrise" version; doesn't make sense at all given the capacity that needs to be replaced. They'd be handing this to SQ and other competitors on a platter if they followed that plan. Regardless of a top-up on 789 or not, there's got to be a reasonable chance of an order for regular 359s/35Ks and/or 781 or similar if the 330 classics are to exit; I also wouldn't rule out the 339 either at this stage in the game. QF simply cannot afford to do just 789 and 35K ULR. That's never gonna fly once 380s and 330s exit.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 10:01 am

enzo011 wrote:
I assume they have crew trained for the A330 so there would be minimal training to get them to the A330neo. But if you buy 787's to replace the A330 all those crew on the A330 will need to be retrained on the 787, right?

Its not about the A330NEO being bad as I dont think they will buy additional 787 either. I believe Qantas plans to rapidly transfer away from the hub and spoke model. This means international flights from every capital city in Australia and doubling the number of international destinations within say 10 years by using smaller aircraft. Non stop flights will be the norm and Project Sunrise is just the start. Non stop flights can charge a premium and will allow Qantas to compete against the middle east airlines to Europe. The Asian carriers will be flying to Australia using one stop solutions on a widebody while Qantas will be hitting smaller Asian cities with non stop solutions using narrowbodies. Qantas takes all the premium passengers.

In terms of crew training the 737-800 crew will have to be trained on the A220-300 and A321XLR. The current A330 crew can probably transfer to the A321XLR.
 
anstar
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 10:07 am

mxaxai wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Either one of these solutions means QF can reduce the number of fleet types it operates with all the savings that brings.

QF is keeping the A330 around as a freighter.


And don't they also have a 767 freighter still?
 
mxaxai
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:04 am

anstar wrote:
And don't they also have a 767 freighter still?

They do, although as pointed out above the cargo fleet is operationally separate from the passenger fleet. The QF cargo fleet with the current orders will soon consist of
9 A321P2F
2 A330-200P2F
1 767-300F
 
aldrigsomandre
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 3:21 pm

I find this whole thing to be a bit odd. None of the airlines that I know of makes the aircraft order process into a publicised contest. I don't mind airlines and manufacturers using air shows as an opportunity to flaunt orders. The options are finite, make the best decision based on what makes business sense and move on. This makes Qantas look condescending.
 
Qf648
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 3:56 pm

330 is a known quantity, does a good job. Joyce doesn't like it for domestic due to weight but it does transcon well. Would be a good multipurpose bird for routes to Asia. There is no real surprises here. Does have fleet commonality.

788 - Im surprised this is not in the offing from JQ. Why do they need a whole pile of wide bodies, with the 788 could be the 330-200 replacement and the 789 in a high density 270-300 for the roles the 330 does? Dont have to place as big an order

359 - potentially but is it too much airplane to do the multipurpose role the 330 does already?

The ideal plane is probably the NMA, but it doesn't exist and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if its more 321 xlrs


TBH if qantas becomes an all narrow body domestic airline the may as well call themselves Ryanair plus and be done with it.
 
redroo
Posts: 652
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:14 pm

aldrigsomandre wrote:
I find this whole thing to be a bit odd. None of the airlines that I know of makes the aircraft order process into a publicised contest. I don't mind airlines and manufacturers using air shows as an opportunity to flaunt orders. The options are finite, make the best decision based on what makes business sense and move on. This makes Qantas look condescending.


The cynic would say it is to deflect from the bad press QF is having due to delays and lost baggage.
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 461
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:12 am

aldrigsomandre wrote:
I find this whole thing to be a bit odd. None of the airlines that I know of makes the aircraft order process into a publicised contest. I don't mind airlines and manufacturers using air shows as an opportunity to flaunt orders. The options are finite, make the best decision based on what makes business sense and move on. This makes Qantas look condescending.


There are two reasons for this.

Firstly, economic nationalism. Australians in general are proud of Qantas and feel that Qantas' success is "their" success. As an Australian myself, I share some of these sentiments even if only on a shallow level - I know they aren't really rational.

Secondly, Qantas has a very good reputation for safety that is recognized by many nations. Not only that, but due to Qantas performing some absolutely epic ULH flights, they tend to be admired in most AvGeek circles. Also, Qantas' reputation even reaches average people - I know of Americans who admire Qantas even though they haven't flew with them (and they often spell it wrong, too).

So yeah, Qantas does this because they DO have a lot of domestic love and even quite a bit of international respect.

Of course I'm sure its partially due to recent domestic issues and them wanting to deflect, but that's Public Relations for you.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 3:06 am

RJMAZ wrote:

In terms of crew training the 737-800 crew will have to be trained on the A220-300 and A321XLR. The current A330 crew can probably transfer to the A321XLR.


The A220 is going to be crewed by the subsidiary NJS, which currently operates the 717.

As far as mainline (737, 330,787, 380) goes most pilots will get the opportunity to bid to (request) their aircraft type rather than be assigned. Current 738 crew get first opportunity to request onto the new aircraft, but any shortfalls will be put out to all pilots. As there will be 738s in service til about 2034 (and about 60% of the fleet til at least 2030) there’ll still be a big need for 738 pilots too, and I’d expect training to continue on that fleet for years to come.

Most of the current A330 pilots won’t go to the 321 (a step backwards) but probably either the 787 or the A350.

However with 1/3rd of the international pilot group scheduled to retire in the next decade there’ll be plenty of opportunities for all pilots to go wherever they want to.

enzo011 wrote:
I assume they have crew trained for the A330 so there would be minimal training to get them to the A330neo. But if you buy 787's to replace the A330 all those crew on the A330 will need to be retrained on the 787, right?


That would’ve been a winning argument for QF to buy the MAX over the A321 right? Have current 737 do a 2 day conversion to the MAX (like from the Classic 737 to the NG) rather than a full 3 month Airbus course whilst you still have to keep half your narrowbody pilots Boeing for 10 years. But the 321XLR gave them advantages that were too good to pass up.

The Airbus to Airbus (330 to 350) training isn’t too substantial. Most 330 pilots will (by choice I think) end up on the 350.

And QF is a seniority based airline so pilots will have the choice to move fleets after spending several years of flying one type. It would be common for a pilot to make about 8 moves in a 30 year career, Second Officer (cruise relief) to narrowbody First Officer, then to widebody First Officer, then to narrowbody Captain, then widebody Captain. Add in a move from one narrow or widebody type to another and then that’s an average of about 6 movements in a 30 year career, about one every 5 years.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 3:32 am

Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?

Sydney - Tokyo = 4227 nautical miles
Sydney - Bangkok = 4,069 nautical miles
Sydney - Hong Kong = 3,982 nautical miles
Sydney - Honolulu = 4,410 nautical miles
Sydney - Shanghai = 4,257 nautical miles
Sydney - Seoul = 4,498 nautical miles

All of these routes are currently served by widebody aircraft by either Qantas or someone else. All of these routes are now capable of being flown by a lower density A321XLR. This is a slam dunk decision in my opinion. Qantas is in a perfect position.

Instead of Qantas flying one widebody flight out of Sydney to these destinations they can now have two A321XLR flights leaving from both Melbourne and Sydney.

Instead of Qantas doing 3-4 flights a week with a widebody to these destinations they can now do daily flights with a A321XLR.

Destinations such as Seoul, Tapei, Osaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Guangzhou couldn't support a Qantas widebody and had to be do a connection on the Asian end. These routes could stand on their own with non stops from Australia with a narrowbody.

I am sure Qantas will have a lower density cabin for these international A321XLR. Their domestic A321XLR will have 180 economy and 20 business class recliners for 200 seats. The 787-9 has double the cabin area and only 36 more seats. So it would not be surprised if Qantas had A321XLR aircraft with less than 150 seats. With that seating density it really allows the A321XLR to fly 4,500nm routes.

I haven't seen many widebody style J seats fitted to narrowbody aircraft before. I'm not sure what a 3 class long haul cabin would look like on a A321XLR.
 
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MrHMSH
Posts: 3217
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 4:01 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?

Sydney - Tokyo = 4227 nautical miles
Sydney - Bangkok = 4,069 nautical miles
Sydney - Hong Kong = 3,982 nautical miles
Sydney - Honolulu = 4,410 nautical miles
Sydney - Shanghai = 4,257 nautical miles
Sydney - Seoul = 4,498 nautical miles

All of these routes are currently served by widebody aircraft by either Qantas or someone else. All of these routes are now capable of being flown by a lower density A321XLR. This is a slam dunk decision in my opinion. Qantas is in a perfect position.

Instead of Qantas flying one widebody flight out of Sydney to these destinations they can now have two A321XLR flights leaving from both Melbourne and Sydney.

Instead of Qantas doing 3-4 flights a week with a widebody to these destinations they can now do daily flights with a A321XLR.

Destinations such as Seoul, Tapei, Osaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Guangzhou couldn't support a Qantas widebody and had to be do a connection on the Asian end. These routes could stand on their own with non stops from Australia with a narrowbody.

I am sure Qantas will have a lower density cabin for these international A321XLR. Their domestic A321XLR will have 180 economy and 20 business class recliners for 200 seats. The 787-9 has double the cabin area and only 36 more seats. So it would not be surprised if Qantas had A321XLR aircraft with less than 150 seats. With that seating density it really allows the A321XLR to fly 4,500nm routes.

I haven't seen many widebody style J seats fitted to narrowbody aircraft before. I'm not sure what a 3 class long haul cabin would look like on a A321XLR.


I reckon the A321XLR will be for Australian capitals (excl SYD and MEL) to fairly busy hubs (SIN, BKK, MNL, CGK etc.) and SYD/MEL to lower gauge routes (SGN, HAN, KUL etc.). Those cities you named at the start are on the challenging end for the A321XLR, and from SYD I can't imagine these would go to narrowbodies.
 
qf002
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 4:34 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?


The biggest takeaway from your list is actually that the A321XLR diminishes the role of the 788 at JQ to almost nothing.

QF is already committed to a very capital-intensive roadmap through to 2030 (domestic renewal and Project Sunrise). 11x existing 788s could be exactly what they need to get them through this next decade (plus a top-up of 789s plus the A321X/LRs already on order) by which time there could be new alternatives on the market (787MAX, Boeing NMA, something new from Airbus below the A350 etc).
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 6:36 am

qf002 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?


The biggest takeaway from your list is actually that the A321XLR diminishes the role of the 788 at JQ to almost nothing.

QF is already committed to a very capital-intensive roadmap through to 2030 (domestic renewal and Project Sunrise). 11x existing 788s could be exactly what they need to get them through this next decade (plus a top-up of 789s plus the A321X/LRs already on order) by which time there could be new alternatives on the market (787MAX, Boeing NMA, something new from Airbus below the A350 etc).


That makes sense, but does not really justify the publicity around "a competition to replace 28 A330s"
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 6:36 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Those cities you named at the start are on the challenging end for the A321XLR, and from SYD I can't imagine these would go to narrowbodies.

The widebody international flights out of Sydney would have many passengers from Melbourne for example. If Melbourne gets a direct international flight using an A321XLR then Sydney might no longer have enough passengers to remain a widebody route.

If Adelaide and Brisbane pick up a few additional the same thing happens and Sydney might see many free landing slots. Moving away from the hub and spoke model usually sees a reduction in landing slots at the hub.

qf002 wrote:
11x existing 788s could be exactly what they need to get them through this next decade

Definitely. They are sorted in terms of widebody aircraft in my opinion.

They need a huge number of A321XLR aircraft to capture big marketshare by offering non stop options. 100 A321XLR aircraft minimum. 50 A321XLR fitted as 200 seaters in 2 class for the triangle routes to replace the 737-800. The remaining 50 A321XLR fitted with 3 class cabins and 130-150 seats to replace the 28 A330CEO.

The A220 does the smaller domestic routes.

The Asian carriers are set up with long range widebody aircraft for international work to Europe and the North America. So they use these bigger aircraft to fly to Australia. I doubt they will get dedicated low seating density A321XLR just to hit Melbourne and Sydney with high efficiency. Qantas going the other way has a dozen destinations in the A321XLR sweet spot so it is worth having a big fleet. No widebody can compete with the A321XLR on these routes.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
That makes sense, but does not really justify the publicity around "a competition to replace 28 A330s"

Only rumours at this stage. 50 existing A321XLR options being confirmed for delivery would technically fill the rumour.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 6:44 am

RJMAZ wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Those cities you named at the start are on the challenging end for the A321XLR, and from SYD I can't imagine these would go to narrowbodies.

The widebody international flights out of Sydney would have many passengers from Melbourne for example. If Melbourne gets a direct international flight using an A321XLR then Sydney might no longer have enough passengers to remain a widebody route.

If Adelaide and Brisbane pick up a few additional the same thing happens and Sydney might see many free landing slots. Moving away from the hub and spoke model usually sees a reduction in landing slots at the hub.



QF has flights to HND, BKK, SIN and HKG from MEL already (using A330s?), so that's why I think the XLR is better-suited for PER, ADL, BNE, CNS, at least to those listed cities.. As a resident of Vietnam, I hope QF will start flights to SGN and HAN (I know JQ and the local airlines fly these routes as well, of course).
 
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enzo011
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:34 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
That would’ve been a winning argument for QF to buy the MAX over the A321 right? Have current 737 do a 2 day conversion to the MAX (like from the Classic 737 to the NG) rather than a full 3 month Airbus course whilst you still have to keep half your narrowbody pilots Boeing for 10 years. But the 321XLR gave them advantages that were too good to pass up.

The Airbus to Airbus (330 to 350) training isn’t too substantial. Most 330 pilots will (by choice I think) end up on the 350.



It would have, just shows how terrible the MAX is compared to the A320. Let us not forget this was the aircraft that was leading the A320 in sales, when compared directly, because it was lighter and had more capacity. The fact they couldn't make a sale at a current operator is some indictment, is something I could say to reflect the loss of the 737MAX at QA. More likely Airbus was just able to offer a better deal with the A220 and Boeing has to make up margins due to the MAX issues.

On to this deal, the 787 has not escaped factors that would weigh against it when it comes to a RFP currently. The CEO has stated one of the aims for Boeing is returning shareholder value and to do that the commercial arm has to start pulling its weight again,

Pontifications: Balance shareholder value with product development and strategy

“We want to get back to a dividend policy. I can’t give you a date and we need a return in our commercial aviation department to support that.” So said David Calhoun, CEO.


So I was just wondering why so many posters were discounting the A330neo in this case off the bat and just assuming it would not be in a competitive tender for the current A330 replacement when compared to the 789. If this is the aircraft that QA is looking for, it is not a given that they are looking at exactly replacing their A330's one for one, but the A330neo should not be discounted just because people think it must without knowing it has been discounted publicly by QA in this contest.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7700
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:35 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?

Sydney - Tokyo = 4227 nautical miles
Sydney - Bangkok = 4,069 nautical miles
Sydney - Hong Kong = 3,982 nautical miles
Sydney - Honolulu = 4,410 nautical miles
Sydney - Shanghai = 4,257 nautical miles
Sydney - Seoul = 4,498 nautical miles

All of these routes are currently served by widebody aircraft by either Qantas or someone else. All of these routes are now capable of being flown by a lower density A321XLR. This is a slam dunk decision in my opinion. Qantas is in a perfect position.

Instead of Qantas flying one widebody flight out of Sydney to these destinations they can now have two A321XLR flights leaving from both Melbourne and Sydney.

Instead of Qantas doing 3-4 flights a week with a widebody to these destinations they can now do daily flights with a A321XLR.

Destinations such as Seoul, Tapei, Osaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Guangzhou couldn't support a Qantas widebody and had to be do a connection on the Asian end. These routes could stand on their own with non stops from Australia with a narrowbody.

I am sure Qantas will have a lower density cabin for these international A321XLR. Their domestic A321XLR will have 180 economy and 20 business class recliners for 200 seats. The 787-9 has double the cabin area and only 36 more seats. So it would not be surprised if Qantas had A321XLR aircraft with less than 150 seats. With that seating density it really allows the A321XLR to fly 4,500nm routes.

I haven't seen many widebody style J seats fitted to narrowbody aircraft before. I'm not sure what a 3 class long haul cabin would look like on a A321XLR.


The A321XLR is about flying to these Asian destinations from other Aussie cities besides Mel & SYD. The major Asian cities need daily flights from Sydney and /or Melbourne.
 
qf002
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:47 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
That makes sense, but does not really justify the publicity around "a competition to replace 28 A330s"


You must be new to the QF school of publicity.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:55 am

Regarding Australia domestic flying, if narrow bodies are to replace widebodies, I suggest standard 321neos should be up to the job, no need for XLRs
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:08 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Regarding Australia domestic flying, if narrow bodies are to replace widebodies, I suggest standard 321neos should be up to the job, no need for XLRs


Gives them full flexibility with a single variant, I guess. I imagine that the configurations for TransCon and to Asia would be identical, not sure about the shorter domestic hops, but could see the same being used. With that in mind, they would be able to schedule all flights on XLRs, whereas they'd have to schedule standard neos and XLRs separately (or rather the XLRs would have routes that the standard neo couldn't cover). It wouldn't be a huge deal, but that's the only thing I can really think of.

Alternatively: they may take neos from their large A32X order (taking slots originally for JQ).
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:16 am

jfk777 wrote:
The A321XLR is about flying to these Asian destinations from other Aussie cities besides Mel & SYD. The major Asian cities need daily flights from Sydney and /or Melbourne.

I think it will be an even spread across the board.

1) Melbourne will get an A321XLR to an international destination that is currently from Sydney only.

2) Sydney will test and prove new destinations with the A321XLR that is currently too thin to test with an A330

3) Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane and Canberra use the A321XLR to fly to some major Asian cities (as you say)

4) Sydney downgauges an existing A330 route to the A321XLR because a lot of passenger are now flying direct from other Australian cities.

5) Sydney to Tokyo for example flying daily on a widebody is replaced with a pair of daily A321XLR flying to two different Japanese cities.

I think they need to place a big order.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Regarding Australia domestic flying, if narrow bodies are to replace widebodies, I suggest standard 321neos should be up to the job, no need for XLRs

The one benefit of having just XLR aircraft is to improve utilisation. The XLR can do the triangle route peak hour before leaving to do the 18 hour return international trip. Also the XLR
 
morrisond
Posts: 3926
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:36 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?

Sydney - Tokyo = 4227 nautical miles
Sydney - Bangkok = 4,069 nautical miles
Sydney - Hong Kong = 3,982 nautical miles
Sydney - Honolulu = 4,410 nautical miles
Sydney - Shanghai = 4,257 nautical miles
Sydney - Seoul = 4,498 nautical miles

All of these routes are currently served by widebody aircraft by either Qantas or someone else. All of these routes are now capable of being flown by a lower density A321XLR. This is a slam dunk decision in my opinion. Qantas is in a perfect position.

Instead of Qantas flying one widebody flight out of Sydney to these destinations they can now have two A321XLR flights leaving from both Melbourne and Sydney.

Instead of Qantas doing 3-4 flights a week with a widebody to these destinations they can now do daily flights with a A321XLR.

Destinations such as Seoul, Tapei, Osaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Guangzhou couldn't support a Qantas widebody and had to be do a connection on the Asian end. These routes could stand on their own with non stops from Australia with a narrowbody.

I am sure Qantas will have a lower density cabin for these international A321XLR. Their domestic A321XLR will have 180 economy and 20 business class recliners for 200 seats. The 787-9 has double the cabin area and only 36 more seats. So it would not be surprised if Qantas had A321XLR aircraft with less than 150 seats. With that seating density it really allows the A321XLR to fly 4,500nm routes.

I haven't seen many widebody style J seats fitted to narrowbody aircraft before. I'm not sure what a 3 class long haul cabin would look like on a A321XLR.


A lot of those routes may be a stretch. You have to account for headwinds.

This article has some pretty good detail including densities at 150 seats, where it seems 4,200NM is more realistic.

Although if you did get it down to 120-130 seats then it might get a lot more interesting but then an 789/338/339 starts to make more sense - there has to be a crossover point where the big wing small widebodies start burning a lot less fuel per seat. Sending one per day vs two starts making a lot more sense, plus you save on pilots as well and possibly landing/nav costs.

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:42 am

qf002 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?


The biggest takeaway from your list is actually that the A321XLR diminishes the role of the 788 at JQ to almost nothing.

How well will the XLR perform in a JQ configuration?
 
qf002
Posts: 3723
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:46 am

RJMAZ wrote:
5) Sydney to Tokyo for example flying daily on a widebody is replaced with a pair of daily A321XLR flying to two different Japanese cities.


I think you are underestimating how much traffic there is on some of these routes. Pre-COVID, QF flew a 1x 744 and 2x A333s daily into TYO with a fourth daily likely to have launched with the retirement of the 744. In addition to this they offered services to KIX and NGO on a seasonal basis which would likely have built in frequency and KIX likely would have gone year-round by now. Plus various JQ services, and JL/NH were both growing as well.

Not only were all these flights booming passenger-wise they were also booming cargo-wise. The A321XLR with its aux tanks is the last thing you want to use on cargo-heavy routes into Asia.

I agree that the A321XLR presents an intriguing opportunity to explore new markets but the A321XLR absolutely does not represent a replacement for A330s on existing 8-10 hour routes.
 
sabby
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:09 am

I have to say that for an Airlines with relatively modest fleet size (compared to many other Airlines in the world), Qantas always gets the best out of Boeing-Airbus competition.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:19 am

morrisond wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?

Sydney - Tokyo = 4227 nautical miles
Sydney - Bangkok = 4,069 nautical miles
Sydney - Hong Kong = 3,982 nautical miles
Sydney - Honolulu = 4,410 nautical miles
Sydney - Shanghai = 4,257 nautical miles
Sydney - Seoul = 4,498 nautical miles

All of these routes are currently served by widebody aircraft by either Qantas or someone else. All of these routes are now capable of being flown by a lower density A321XLR. This is a slam dunk decision in my opinion. Qantas is in a perfect position.

Instead of Qantas flying one widebody flight out of Sydney to these destinations they can now have two A321XLR flights leaving from both Melbourne and Sydney.

Instead of Qantas doing 3-4 flights a week with a widebody to these destinations they can now do daily flights with a A321XLR.

Destinations such as Seoul, Tapei, Osaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Guangzhou couldn't support a Qantas widebody and had to be do a connection on the Asian end. These routes could stand on their own with non stops from Australia with a narrowbody.

I am sure Qantas will have a lower density cabin for these international A321XLR. Their domestic A321XLR will have 180 economy and 20 business class recliners for 200 seats. The 787-9 has double the cabin area and only 36 more seats. So it would not be surprised if Qantas had A321XLR aircraft with less than 150 seats. With that seating density it really allows the A321XLR to fly 4,500nm routes.

I haven't seen many widebody style J seats fitted to narrowbody aircraft before. I'm not sure what a 3 class long haul cabin would look like on a A321XLR.


A lot of those routes may be a stretch. You have to account for headwinds.

This article has some pretty good detail including densities at 150 seats, where it seems 4,200NM is more realistic.

Although if you did get it down to 120-130 seats then it might get a lot more interesting but then an 789/338/339 starts to make more sense - there has to be a crossover point where the big wing small widebodies start burning a lot less fuel per seat. Sending one per day vs two starts making a lot more sense, plus you save on pilots as well and possibly landing/nav costs.

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/


If the savings/advantages of widebodies were really there, narrow bodies would not be dominating the US domestic market. Last 70 years commercial aviation reality is that a NB will take over a route if it has the range and efficiency…
 
Opus99
Posts: 3553
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:34 am

JonesNL wrote:
morrisond wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?

Sydney - Tokyo = 4227 nautical miles
Sydney - Bangkok = 4,069 nautical miles
Sydney - Hong Kong = 3,982 nautical miles
Sydney - Honolulu = 4,410 nautical miles
Sydney - Shanghai = 4,257 nautical miles
Sydney - Seoul = 4,498 nautical miles

All of these routes are currently served by widebody aircraft by either Qantas or someone else. All of these routes are now capable of being flown by a lower density A321XLR. This is a slam dunk decision in my opinion. Qantas is in a perfect position.

Instead of Qantas flying one widebody flight out of Sydney to these destinations they can now have two A321XLR flights leaving from both Melbourne and Sydney.

Instead of Qantas doing 3-4 flights a week with a widebody to these destinations they can now do daily flights with a A321XLR.

Destinations such as Seoul, Tapei, Osaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Guangzhou couldn't support a Qantas widebody and had to be do a connection on the Asian end. These routes could stand on their own with non stops from Australia with a narrowbody.

I am sure Qantas will have a lower density cabin for these international A321XLR. Their domestic A321XLR will have 180 economy and 20 business class recliners for 200 seats. The 787-9 has double the cabin area and only 36 more seats. So it would not be surprised if Qantas had A321XLR aircraft with less than 150 seats. With that seating density it really allows the A321XLR to fly 4,500nm routes.

I haven't seen many widebody style J seats fitted to narrowbody aircraft before. I'm not sure what a 3 class long haul cabin would look like on a A321XLR.


A lot of those routes may be a stretch. You have to account for headwinds.

This article has some pretty good detail including densities at 150 seats, where it seems 4,200NM is more realistic.

Although if you did get it down to 120-130 seats then it might get a lot more interesting but then an 789/338/339 starts to make more sense - there has to be a crossover point where the big wing small widebodies start burning a lot less fuel per seat. Sending one per day vs two starts making a lot more sense, plus you save on pilots as well and possibly landing/nav costs.

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/


If the savings/advantages of widebodies were really there, narrow bodies would not be dominating the US domestic market. Last 70 years commercial aviation reality is that a NB will take over a route if it has the range and efficiency…

Not all the time. Japan domestic for example is against that rule and a lot of regional travel within Asia and SOME transcontinental flights with the US. You also have to think about cargo revenues, slot constraints etc. every route is different

It’s not that black and white. Because the XLR exists doesn’t change the scope for a lot of major routes especially if they are high performing with widebodies
 
JonesNL
Posts: 866
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:40 am

Opus99 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
morrisond wrote:

A lot of those routes may be a stretch. You have to account for headwinds.

This article has some pretty good detail including densities at 150 seats, where it seems 4,200NM is more realistic.

Although if you did get it down to 120-130 seats then it might get a lot more interesting but then an 789/338/339 starts to make more sense - there has to be a crossover point where the big wing small widebodies start burning a lot less fuel per seat. Sending one per day vs two starts making a lot more sense, plus you save on pilots as well and possibly landing/nav costs.

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/


If the savings/advantages of widebodies were really there, narrow bodies would not be dominating the US domestic market. Last 70 years commercial aviation reality is that a NB will take over a route if it has the range and efficiency…

Not all the time. Japan domestic for example is against that rule and a lot of regional travel within Asia and SOME transcontinental flights with the US. You also have to think about cargo revenues, slot constraints etc. every route is different

It’s not that black and white. Because the XLR exists doesn’t change the scope for a lot of major routes especially if they are high performing with widebodies


True, but for ~90% of the routes, an NB has taken over the routes from a WB and increased frequency to increase RASM. Exceptions don’t make this reality untrue…
 
Opus99
Posts: 3553
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:45 am

JonesNL wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

If the savings/advantages of widebodies were really there, narrow bodies would not be dominating the US domestic market. Last 70 years commercial aviation reality is that a NB will take over a route if it has the range and efficiency…

Not all the time. Japan domestic for example is against that rule and a lot of regional travel within Asia and SOME transcontinental flights with the US. You also have to think about cargo revenues, slot constraints etc. every route is different

It’s not that black and white. Because the XLR exists doesn’t change the scope for a lot of major routes especially if they are high performing with widebodies


True, but for ~90% of the routes, an NB has taken over the routes from a WB and increased frequency to increase RASM. Exceptions don’t make this reality untrue…

It’s not untrue. It’s not just a hard and fast rule
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1993
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 11:28 am

JonesNL wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

If the savings/advantages of widebodies were really there, narrow bodies would not be dominating the US domestic market. Last 70 years commercial aviation reality is that a NB will take over a route if it has the range and efficiency…

Not all the time. Japan domestic for example is against that rule and a lot of regional travel within Asia and SOME transcontinental flights with the US. You also have to think about cargo revenues, slot constraints etc. every route is different

It’s not that black and white. Because the XLR exists doesn’t change the scope for a lot of major routes especially if they are high performing with widebodies


True, but for ~90% of the routes, an NB has taken over the routes from a WB and increased frequency to increase RASM. Exceptions don’t make this reality untrue…

That's because US does not have slot restrictions most of the time. However most of the Asian cities do, and can have some hard limits (e.g. number of flights to HND; or difficulties in obtaining slots at PEK/PVG) so you will not see A321XLR onto those cities anytime soon - especially from SYD/MEL.

Michael

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