RJMAZ wrote:MrHMSH wrote:Those cities you named at the start are on the challenging end for the A321XLR, and from SYD I can't imagine these would go to narrowbodies.
The widebody international flights out of Sydney would have many passengers from Melbourne for example. If Melbourne gets a direct international flight using an A321XLR then Sydney might no longer have enough passengers to remain a widebody route.
If Adelaide and Brisbane pick up a few additional the same thing happens and Sydney might see many free landing slots. Moving away from the hub and spoke model usually sees a reduction in landing slots at the hub.qf002 wrote:11x existing 788s could be exactly what they need to get them through this next decade
Definitely. They are sorted in terms of widebody aircraft in my opinion.
They need a huge number of A321XLR aircraft to capture big marketshare by offering non stop options. 100 A321XLR aircraft minimum. 50 A321XLR fitted as 200 seaters in 2 class for the triangle routes to replace the 737-800. The remaining 50 A321XLR fitted with 3 class cabins and 130-150 seats to replace the 28 A330CEO.
The A220 does the smaller domestic routes.
The Asian carriers are set up with long range widebody aircraft for international work to Europe and the North America. So they use these bigger aircraft to fly to Australia. I doubt they will get dedicated low seating density A321XLR just to hit Melbourne and Sydney with high efficiency. Qantas going the other way has a dozen destinations in the A321XLR sweet spot so it is worth having a big fleet. No widebody can compete with the A321XLR on these routes.JerseyFlyer wrote:That makes sense, but does not really justify the publicity around "a competition to replace 28 A330s"
Only rumours at this stage. 50 existing A321XLR options being confirmed for delivery would technically fill the rumour.
Your ideas assume slots / tarmac / airspace are no issue. On NRT/ICN/HKG we're not going to see 321XLR deployed from SYD and MEL. That assumes no growth and no slot issues (most of these airports mentioned have them). Hence why QF has an RFP for 330 replacement that won't just be 321XLRs (already ordered). Not to say, however, that the XLR won't play a role in some medium-long haul flying out of less population dense centres. It could well do that job. I just don't see 100+ 321XLR coming on the scale you are proposing. This picture is not consistent with lots of what's known about these markets at present. Suggest you do some research on that.