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NZ321
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 11:37 am

RJMAZ wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Those cities you named at the start are on the challenging end for the A321XLR, and from SYD I can't imagine these would go to narrowbodies.

The widebody international flights out of Sydney would have many passengers from Melbourne for example. If Melbourne gets a direct international flight using an A321XLR then Sydney might no longer have enough passengers to remain a widebody route.

If Adelaide and Brisbane pick up a few additional the same thing happens and Sydney might see many free landing slots. Moving away from the hub and spoke model usually sees a reduction in landing slots at the hub.

qf002 wrote:
11x existing 788s could be exactly what they need to get them through this next decade

Definitely. They are sorted in terms of widebody aircraft in my opinion.

They need a huge number of A321XLR aircraft to capture big marketshare by offering non stop options. 100 A321XLR aircraft minimum. 50 A321XLR fitted as 200 seaters in 2 class for the triangle routes to replace the 737-800. The remaining 50 A321XLR fitted with 3 class cabins and 130-150 seats to replace the 28 A330CEO.

The A220 does the smaller domestic routes.

The Asian carriers are set up with long range widebody aircraft for international work to Europe and the North America. So they use these bigger aircraft to fly to Australia. I doubt they will get dedicated low seating density A321XLR just to hit Melbourne and Sydney with high efficiency. Qantas going the other way has a dozen destinations in the A321XLR sweet spot so it is worth having a big fleet. No widebody can compete with the A321XLR on these routes.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
That makes sense, but does not really justify the publicity around "a competition to replace 28 A330s"

Only rumours at this stage. 50 existing A321XLR options being confirmed for delivery would technically fill the rumour.


Your ideas assume slots / tarmac / airspace are no issue. On NRT/ICN/HKG we're not going to see 321XLR deployed from SYD and MEL. That assumes no growth and no slot issues (most of these airports mentioned have them). Hence why QF has an RFP for 330 replacement that won't just be 321XLRs (already ordered). Not to say, however, that the XLR won't play a role in some medium-long haul flying out of less population dense centres. It could well do that job. I just don't see 100+ 321XLR coming on the scale you are proposing. This picture is not consistent with lots of what's known about these markets at present. Suggest you do some research on that.
 
a320fan
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 11:53 am

NTLDaz wrote:
qf002 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?


The biggest takeaway from your list is actually that the A321XLR diminishes the role of the 788 at JQ to almost nothing.


How well will the XLR perform in a JQ configuration?

Yep the XLR isn’t going to do these routes at 230 seats, and the JQ model won’t work at 150/160.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:28 pm

I get the feeling that given the number of potential options, the deal making will be key here as there is no clear favourite in my view.

Both Boeing and Airbus have a strong case to make to win this, but I really don’t see the A330neo in the mix for this.

Boeing can put forward the taking up the 787-9 options and adding the 787-10.

Airbus can put forward the A350-900 to join the upcoming A350-1000 and A321XLR.

Either option builds a fair amount of fleet commonality and capability to operate across the network.

Which option would I prefer to see though? Leaning towards the Airbus fleet but there is a long way to go in this one though.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:40 pm

Just an aside. Back in the days when Boeing liked building planes, both Delta and Qantas(and others IIRC) were enthusiastic about the MOM, In fairness to Boeing it probably could not have been built and sold at for as much as Boeing thought they needed. For airlines it would cost more than they really could afford in a competitive market. But! It would have been a big seller, for Boeing it was what they needed to do to stay competitive, and for the airlines it would have done everything a 321 could do, only much better. Twas not to be.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:50 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Just an aside. Back in the days when Boeing liked building planes, both Delta and Qantas(and others IIRC) were enthusiastic about the MOM, In fairness to Boeing it probably could not have been built and sold at for as much as Boeing thought they needed. For airlines it would cost more than they really could afford in a competitive market. But! It would have been a big seller, for Boeing it was what they needed to do to stay competitive, and for the airlines it would have done everything a 321 could do, only much better. Twas not to be.


It’s a weird one that it was talked up a fair bit, and a few airlines seemed interested, but whether it be the business case not stacking up, Boeing’s numerous issues affecting their existing programs or a combination of those and other factors, it certainly left the market well and truly open for Airbus to dominate with the A321.

Getting a product to market though would certainly take time, and even the ongoing talk that some will bring up of a 757NG type option would still need a lot of work.
 
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flee
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:48 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Just an aside. Back in the days when Boeing liked building planes, both Delta and Qantas(and others IIRC) were enthusiastic about the MOM, In fairness to Boeing it probably could not have been built and sold at for as much as Boeing thought they needed. For airlines it would cost more than they really could afford in a competitive market. But! It would have been a big seller, for Boeing it was what they needed to do to stay competitive, and for the airlines it would have done everything a 321 could do, only much better. Twas not to be.

It’s a weird one that it was talked up a fair bit, and a few airlines seemed interested, but whether it be the business case not stacking up, Boeing’s numerous issues affecting their existing programs or a combination of those and other factors, it certainly left the market well and truly open for Airbus to dominate with the A321.

Getting a product to market though would certainly take time, and even the ongoing talk that some will bring up of a 757NG type option would still need a lot of work.

I suspect that was due to priority was given to increase "shareholder value" - the management team had lots of incentives and share options and it was in their best interest to maximise them. Any huge capital expenditure commitments will eat into that even though they can use program accounting to defer charging the expenditure into the future.

I doubt the A321XLR will be ordered as one of the options for the A330 replacement - this RFP is going to be a mix of Boeing and Airbus widebodies.
 
aldrigsomandre
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:36 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
aldrigsomandre wrote:
I find this whole thing to be a bit odd. None of the airlines that I know of makes the aircraft order process into a publicised contest. I don't mind airlines and manufacturers using air shows as an opportunity to flaunt orders. The options are finite, make the best decision based on what makes business sense and move on. This makes Qantas look condescending.


There are two reasons for this.

Firstly, economic nationalism. Australians in general are proud of Qantas and feel that Qantas' success is "their" success. As an Australian myself, I share some of these sentiments even if only on a shallow level - I know they aren't really rational.

Secondly, Qantas has a very good reputation for safety that is recognized by many nations. Not only that, but due to Qantas performing some absolutely epic ULH flights, they tend to be admired in most AvGeek circles. Also, Qantas' reputation even reaches average people - I know of Americans who admire Qantas even though they haven't flew with them (and they often spell it wrong, too).

So yeah, Qantas does this because they DO have a lot of domestic love and even quite a bit of international respect.

Of course I'm sure its partially due to recent domestic issues and them wanting to deflect, but that's Public Relations for you.


I understand the "being proud of something" part, but this has nothing to do with Qantas' business success, it does not contribute anything to it. Many other airlines conduct long haul business, some larger than Qantas with relative success, none making aircraft orders into a contest. I can understand Project Sunrise as that requires an aircraft with extended capabilities, but this is a simple fleet replacement thing, should be based on what makes sense for the business and not national pride.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Sun Aug 28, 2022 10:36 pm

JonesNL wrote:
morrisond wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?

Sydney - Tokyo = 4227 nautical miles
Sydney - Bangkok = 4,069 nautical miles
Sydney - Hong Kong = 3,982 nautical miles
Sydney - Honolulu = 4,410 nautical miles
Sydney - Shanghai = 4,257 nautical miles
Sydney - Seoul = 4,498 nautical miles

All of these routes are currently served by widebody aircraft by either Qantas or someone else. All of these routes are now capable of being flown by a lower density A321XLR. This is a slam dunk decision in my opinion. Qantas is in a perfect position.

Instead of Qantas flying one widebody flight out of Sydney to these destinations they can now have two A321XLR flights leaving from both Melbourne and Sydney.

Instead of Qantas doing 3-4 flights a week with a widebody to these destinations they can now do daily flights with a A321XLR.

Destinations such as Seoul, Tapei, Osaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Guangzhou couldn't support a Qantas widebody and had to be do a connection on the Asian end. These routes could stand on their own with non stops from Australia with a narrowbody.

I am sure Qantas will have a lower density cabin for these international A321XLR. Their domestic A321XLR will have 180 economy and 20 business class recliners for 200 seats. The 787-9 has double the cabin area and only 36 more seats. So it would not be surprised if Qantas had A321XLR aircraft with less than 150 seats. With that seating density it really allows the A321XLR to fly 4,500nm routes.

I haven't seen many widebody style J seats fitted to narrowbody aircraft before. I'm not sure what a 3 class long haul cabin would look like on a A321XLR.


A lot of those routes may be a stretch. You have to account for headwinds.

This article has some pretty good detail including densities at 150 seats, where it seems 4,200NM is more realistic.

Although if you did get it down to 120-130 seats then it might get a lot more interesting but then an 789/338/339 starts to make more sense - there has to be a crossover point where the big wing small widebodies start burning a lot less fuel per seat. Sending one per day vs two starts making a lot more sense, plus you save on pilots as well and possibly landing/nav costs.

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/


If the savings/advantages of widebodies were really there, narrow bodies would not be dominating the US domestic market. Last 70 years commercial aviation reality is that a NB will take over a route if it has the range and efficiency…

Commercial aviation reality in the US and some other places.

Japan and Australia have long been outliers.

As for the XLR being over specified, QF has long switched capability into shorter routes in the name of fleet flexibility. A332 (and before that B763ER) on SYD-MEL being the most stark example.
 
aaaaandrew
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 1:07 am

Morning all, long time lurker here who has decided to have several opinions:

This is a weird order, so lets keep in mind the strength of each replacement candidate:
A339 -> 7h optimal, can stretch to US west coast
788 -> 7-12h optimal, maximum ~MEL-DFW
789 -> 7-12h optimal, can stretch to PER-LHR
78J -> 7h optimal, can stretch to US west coast
A359 -> 12h optimal, may stretch to sunrise routes

I think this RFP is unique for QF because its the only one without a direct replacement, leaving these assumptions that I reckon are probably going around between lines at HQ at the moment...
First, the A321XLR is capable of flying a majority of JQ international routes, and QF is able to pick up any remaining slack. Give this assumption a 7/10, we don't quite have a full picture of what the frame is capable off. Second, that it is in JQs interest to offload the 788s to QF in the first place... again, probably a 8/10 assumption, especially if the A321XLR can actually make flights like MEL-NRT/HNL. Therefore, all A332 capacity can be replaced with the 788/9 for longer flights and A321XLR for shorter ones, leaving the A333 as the main liability to replace. That frame flies in (for QF) a high density layout and on relatively short flights, considering the capacity losses dealt by the departure of the 744 fleet, I think up-gauging their replacements 1-for-1 into 78Js likely provides the lowest CASM, and therefore a good idea. In total, this leaves an order for ~10 78Js on the table, and a transfer of JQs 11 788s as a minimum.

Proposed by more or less everyone, the 78J is a natural fit to replace much of the A333 fleet, if the HGW version ordered by NZ turns out to be competent (read, full pax load MEL-US west coast), I would suggest its use there as well to boost capacity, especially as many current 789 routes are downgauges' of previous 744 missions (i.e, MEL-LAX, SYD-SCL). This allows existing 788/9s to work on growing routes like MEL-SFO, MEL-KIX, among other long-ish routes. Range abetting, A359s could duplicate shorter sunrise routes (e.g, BNE-JFK, FCO, MCO, ATL, YYZ, etc) and 789s from routes like PER-LHR, FCO, AKL-JFK, SYD-DFW, freeing more of those frames for growth (i.e, SYD-YVR, PEK, DEL, ICN, BOM). I know many of these routes sound untenable, but a flexible order of low-risk and efficient frames would enable QF to become more aggressive without much consequence (and as a side-note, many of the longer ones would still work with a HGW 789, so its not out of the running).

Remember, this is an order that isn't direct replacing the A330, a peak off QFs PR track-record shows that a desire for "new-tech" frames (i.e, rule out A330neo - they're phasing A330 out anyway and whatever type they choose it'll end up flying routes beyond its optimal mission profile), positive publicity and competitive pricing. Having this as a shoe-in order for the 78J makes sense, I think this is QFs attempt at generating a reasonable sale price for not only more 787s, but also A359s (or apply some reverse-psychology and lower the required outload for 787s). The outcome of the 789 remaining in its current ULH role long-term in the long term, imo, depends entire on the fate of this order. Ultimately, A359 can carry more people further and with less penalty (CASM, load restrictions, etc), but airbus generally likes to make money, so as a bargaining chip, QF is engineering an order to benefit the 787 in the hope of driving down A350 pricing. If successful, QF would stand to benefit from these additional A350s (potentially in addition to 78Js) to bolster commonality with the frames already on order. If unsuccessful, QF probably got a reasonable deal for more 789s/78Js, which still leaves them in a good position regardless.

That potentially leaves QF with the following long-haul fleet types:
A332 (18), A333 (10), 744 --> 788 (11), 789 (14), 78J (10+10)
744, A380 (10) --> A359 (8+12), A35K (12 + potential future order to replace A380)

QF probably doesn't need this many frames, count these numbers are maximums.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 1:50 am

flee wrote:

I doubt the A321XLR will be ordered as one of the options for the A330 replacement - this RFP is going to be a mix of Boeing and Airbus widebodies.


The 321XLR won’t be announced as a direct replacement for the 332/333, but it will eventually take over a lot of the transcon domestic routes and South East Asian flying the 330 currently does.

Whatever aircraft is chosen to replace the A330 will probably do some very peak domestic and peak SE Asian flying (like SYD/MEL-SIN) but mostly routes beyond the range of the 321XLR like NRT. They have 25 A330’s at the moment but my suspicion is only about 12 or so “replacement” aircraft will be obtained, my guess on the frontrunner is the 788 or 781. The rest of the current 330 flying is covered by the 321XLR. And some of the 330 fleet has a lot of life left in it, there are 10 330’s with less than 10 years service that could easy fly until the early 2030’s.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 1:58 am

flee wrote:
I doubt the A321XLR will be ordered as one of the options for the A330 replacement - this RFP is going to be a mix of Boeing and Airbus widebodies.


20 A321XLRs have already been ordered, and I highly doubt QF will use them principally for domestic/transcon/trans-Tasman routes since they have much more range than necessary for this (standard A321neos can do all of those routes easily, and QF have a lot of options for future A321neos).

As I see it the A321XLRs are earmarked as part of the A330 replacement already... in particular serving South-East Asia. The capacity drop can be compensated for through frequency increases and additional routes from different Australian cities.

If Qantas needs a jet bigger than the A321XLR as part of replacing the A330, I don't see why QF wouldn't just order more 787-9s in a less premium configuration. Such a low-premium 787-9 would also be good for doing additional Transpac routes to North America during tourist season.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:12 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
The 321XLR won’t be announced as a direct replacement for the 332/333, but it will eventually take over a lot of the transcon domestic routes and South East Asian flying the 330 currently does.

Exactly.

Also the A321XLR has already been ordered with 90+ additional purchase rights. So if the A321XLR is selected as a 332/333 replacement we will probably hear nothing. If no official contest is run then that means the A321XLR has already won.

Qantas is already in the queue for additional A321XLR. I find that when a new aircraft type is selected an airline might order the replacement say 4 years before the planned delivery date. However if it's just options being confirmed for an existing order they might only order the aircraft 2 years before the planned delivery date.

So if we hear nothing this year or next that means the A321XLR options will probably get confirmed.
 
sibibom
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:59 am

This seems to be in the bag for the B787(especially after project sunrise and narrowbody losses), unless 10 abreast A350 somehow becomes the norm...then I wonder how the numbers would stack, considering A350 too have one foot in already with project sunrise?

ps : I concer with this almost reality TV like spectacle to order some airplanes being a farce. But that's what's selling these days. Sigh.
 
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flee
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:08 am

RJMAZ wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
The 321XLR won’t be announced as a direct replacement for the 332/333, but it will eventually take over a lot of the transcon domestic routes and South East Asian flying the 330 currently does.

Exactly.

Also the A321XLR has already been ordered with 90+ additional purchase rights. So if the A321XLR is selected as a 332/333 replacement we will probably hear nothing. If no official contest is run then that means the A321XLR has already won.

Qantas is already in the queue for additional A321XLR. I find that when a new aircraft type is selected an airline might order the replacement say 4 years before the planned delivery date. However if it's just options being confirmed for an existing order they might only order the aircraft 2 years before the planned delivery date.

So if we hear nothing this year or next that means the A321XLR options will probably get confirmed.

I don't think we disagree - I am strictly looking at the A330 RFP and have already assumed that existing firm orders for aircraft (e.g. A321XLR) will be carrying out QF's earlier plans for it. The lower end requirements are already taken care of and the RFP will look at the more demanding routes that the A330 replacement will be doing. It will also point further into QF's future operations.

I think the A330ceo replacement is more like an A330 transition - some of their A330ceo's won't be leaving the fleet anytime soon and will carry on for maybe another 10 years. The delivery schedule of this RFP will be a slow one and will bleed into the A380 replacement. QF may also be looking at an opportunity for early A380 retirement as fuel prices may be too high for the remainder of the A380''s life. As such, the RFP aircraft will also be the leading wave of aircraft spearheading the early days of the A380 replacement.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:47 am

To me the perfect A333 replacement is the 787-10. Its sweet spot is roughly 4000-4500 nmi which is virtually every intra-Asian route in QF's network.

ICN is 4498 nmi to HKG which is 3982 nmi. Everything else is between those two in terms of distance. Plus, QF can go out at or close to MTOW on virtually all of these routes if they need heavy cargo lift. I do not see the A321XLR flying any of these routes as they cannot carry any cargo.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 4:21 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
To me the perfect A333 replacement is the 787-10. Its sweet spot is roughly 4000-4500 nmi which is virtually every intra-Asian route in QF's network.

ICN is 4498 nmi to HKG which is 3982 nmi. Everything else is between those two in terms of distance. Plus, QF can go out at or close to MTOW on virtually all of these routes if they need heavy cargo lift. I do not see the A321XLR flying any of these routes as they cannot carry any cargo.


The 787-10 is a nice jet, but surely the 787-9 can do those same routes at perfectly acceptable economics, with great cargo capacity. Not to mention, the long-term trend towards smaller jets making more frequent flights favors a combo of A321XLRs and 787-9s over 787-10s (and in addition, the 787-9s could also do TPAC frequencies when necessary to increase capacity).

I agree ICN won't be served by A321XLRs. But Manila, Osaka, Jakarta, Bali, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and Taipei are different stories (Hong Kong is probably going to end up becoming much less popular among Australian travellers over time due to the geopolitical situation). Not to mention, QF could also serve more Asian cities from smaller Australian cities like Adelaide and Perth.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:12 am

sibibom wrote:

ps : I concer with this almost reality TV like spectacle to order some airplanes being a farce. But that's what's selling these days. Sigh.


Well the good news is they haven’t given the decision to purchase an A330 replacement a name like “Project Sunrise” or “Project Winton”. It looks like they’re just going to do what every other airline manages to do, make a decision to purchase aircraft without it needing to be a media spectacle.
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:20 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
To me the perfect A333 replacement is the 787-10. Its sweet spot is roughly 4000-4500 nmi which is virtually every intra-Asian route in QF's network.

ICN is 4498 nmi to HKG which is 3982 nmi. Everything else is between those two in terms of distance. Plus, QF can go out at or close to MTOW on virtually all of these routes if they need heavy cargo lift. I do not see the A321XLR flying any of these routes as they cannot carry any cargo.


The 787-10 is a nice jet, but surely the 787-9 can do those same routes at perfectly acceptable economics, with great cargo capacity. Not to mention, the long-term trend towards smaller jets making more frequent flights favors a combo of A321XLRs and 787-9s over 787-10s (and in addition, the 787-9s could also do TPAC frequencies when necessary to increase capacity).

I agree ICN won't be served by A321XLRs. But Manila, Osaka, Jakarta, Bali, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and Taipei are different stories (Hong Kong is probably going to end up becoming much less popular among Australian travellers over time due to the geopolitical situation). Not to mention, QF could also serve more Asian cities from smaller Australian cities like Adelaide and Perth.


I do agree the 789 is a great fit. However given a lot constraints in some ports (peak time both SYD/MEL are slot constraints + Asia), and the stage length at some point frequency doesn’t matter.

To me the 787-10 would slot in nicely supplementing 380s or where more than frequency has never been important.
SYD-HND
SYD-HKG*
SYD-HNL

MEL-SIN
MEL-HKG
MEL-HND

If the ER is developed, which should be in scope but the time of the orders:
BNE-LAX
SYD-SFO

*big if HKG market recovers in the mid term.

I think there is scope for further 789 for the rest of Asia. And perhaps even lower premium for SCL,JNB.

321XLR and adding frequency have their place but can’t fulfil all needs to Asia.
 
morrisond
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 5:32 am

JonesNL wrote:
morrisond wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Does anyone notice a trend with the distances of the following major routes?

Sydney - Tokyo = 4227 nautical miles
Sydney - Bangkok = 4,069 nautical miles
Sydney - Hong Kong = 3,982 nautical miles
Sydney - Honolulu = 4,410 nautical miles
Sydney - Shanghai = 4,257 nautical miles
Sydney - Seoul = 4,498 nautical miles

All of these routes are currently served by widebody aircraft by either Qantas or someone else. All of these routes are now capable of being flown by a lower density A321XLR. This is a slam dunk decision in my opinion. Qantas is in a perfect position.

Instead of Qantas flying one widebody flight out of Sydney to these destinations they can now have two A321XLR flights leaving from both Melbourne and Sydney.

Instead of Qantas doing 3-4 flights a week with a widebody to these destinations they can now do daily flights with a A321XLR.

Destinations such as Seoul, Tapei, Osaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Guangzhou couldn't support a Qantas widebody and had to be do a connection on the Asian end. These routes could stand on their own with non stops from Australia with a narrowbody.

I am sure Qantas will have a lower density cabin for these international A321XLR. Their domestic A321XLR will have 180 economy and 20 business class recliners for 200 seats. The 787-9 has double the cabin area and only 36 more seats. So it would not be surprised if Qantas had A321XLR aircraft with less than 150 seats. With that seating density it really allows the A321XLR to fly 4,500nm routes.

I haven't seen many widebody style J seats fitted to narrowbody aircraft before. I'm not sure what a 3 class long haul cabin would look like on a A321XLR.


A lot of those routes may be a stretch. You have to account for headwinds.

This article has some pretty good detail including densities at 150 seats, where it seems 4,200NM is more realistic.

Although if you did get it down to 120-130 seats then it might get a lot more interesting but then an 789/338/339 starts to make more sense - there has to be a crossover point where the big wing small widebodies start burning a lot less fuel per seat. Sending one per day vs two starts making a lot more sense, plus you save on pilots as well and possibly landing/nav costs.

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/


If the savings/advantages of widebodies were really there, narrow bodies would not be dominating the US domestic market. Last 70 years commercial aviation reality is that a NB will take over a route if it has the range and efficiency…


However in this case it does not have the range and the last time I checked they are not that many highways or train tracks between Australia and any of those destinations for cargo. There also happens to be a very large dedicated freighter network in the states that seems to have stolen the market from the airlines.
 
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vhqpa
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 8:54 am

RE. 787-10

I’m not so sure about these joining the QF fleet. My opinion is that between this and the A350-900. The Airbus is more versatile and offers a better intermediate step between the 787-9 and A350-1000XLR. For example if MEL-DFW does well it can be upgauged from 787-9 without stepping all the way up to an A350-1000. And even for routes that are within range for the 787-10, the A350 would be able to use it’s higher weights for additional cargo payload. But the thing is QF have gone out of their way to simplify their fleet and even having varying configurations. (Gone are the days of having three distinct configs for the 747-400, the 767s). QF could very well decide introducing either the 787-10, or A350-900 complicates the fleet too much and out weighs the versatility it provides.

Also with the A330neo, while I wouldn’t 100% count it out I think Airbus would have to do a bloody good deal to get them into the QF fleet. If QF were unhappy with the 787-9 maybe there’s a chance, but everything from QF so far seems to indicate they are very happy with the aircraft.

If I were to make a prediction I’d go

787-8 -> transferred from JQ to QF. 2 class Asia flying, too big/too far for a A321XLR. Maybe not all?
787-9 -> reconfigure in a denser config 2 class, for mostly Asia flying and maybe thinner North America ie. BNE-SFO/DFW
A350-900 -> 3 class for Asia with W and cargo demand and other long haul flights not requiring a -1000. Ie. SYD-JNB, MEL-DFW
A350-1000XLR -> 4 class for project Sunrise and other routes with F demand, maybe F sold as J for busy routes with insufficient F demand.
 
harshanajay
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 9:56 am

If they are looking for a 330 replacement,

Their
333 (233 MTOW) has 297 seats and the longest flight is 10 hrs (HNL-SYD)
332 (233 MTOW) has 271 & 251 seats (251 version blocks 17 seats for long haul) longest is 14 hrs (LAX-BNE)

There is news QF is reactivating A380 from 2023. When 380s relieve 789s from some long haul routes, they also could do 332's roles. If all QF 35K & 789 are 238, 236 seats, there is a gap between them and 484 seat A380. Again this is the QF that said it replaced 744 with 789. Capacity wise how has this played out? For example on SYD-LAX route DAL operates 359 (306 seat), UAL 789 with 250+ seats. QF does 789 with 236 seats. QF might be needing the 300-350 seat aircraft for long haul; a role that could played by either 35K or 359 may be also by 78X with the proposed HGW. Could this 78X HGW do 14 hour flights with 300-350 seats? EVA 78X were seen doing flights close to 13 hrs. DAL 339 can be seen doing 12 hour flights. Risk management wise, going all 787 could pose operational issues. Therefore it may be sensible to go 339 or 359. CAPEX wise and crew wise 339 might be better. Operational flexibility wise 359.

A330's current domestic and short hauls/mediums can certainly be replaced by 321 XLR.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:05 am

harshanajay wrote:

There is news QF is reactivating A380 from 2023. When 380s relieve 789s from some long haul routes, they also could do 332's roles.

The A380s won’t relieve 789s from long haul routes. Even when all the A380s are reactivated QF will be down 8 long haul planes (6 744ERs, 2 A380) compared to precovid. Still down 5 when you factor the 3 789s to be delivered. That’s why they have bumped up the MTOW of some A332s and are operating them long haul.

Technically with 11 (eventually 14) planes the 787 is QF’s primary long haul aircraft.

Risk management wise, going all 787 could pose operational issues.


But they are not…it would be a 787/A350 fleet. Not sure why going all 787 is an operational issue but going all A350 isn’t.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:33 am

harshanajay wrote:
If they are looking for a 330 replacement,

Their
333 (233 MTOW) has 297 seats and the longest flight is 10 hrs (HNL-SYD)
332 (233 MTOW) has 271 & 251 seats (251 version blocks 17 seats for long haul) longest is 14 hrs (LAX-BNE)

There is news QF is reactivating A380 from 2023. When 380s relieve 789s from some long haul routes, they also could do 332's roles. If all QF 35K & 789 are 238, 236 seats, there is a gap between them and 484 seat A380. Again this is the QF that said it replaced 744 with 789. Capacity wise how has this played out? For example on SYD-LAX route DAL operates 359 (306 seat), UAL 789 with 250+ seats. QF does 789 with 236 seats. QF might be needing the 300-350 seat aircraft for long haul; a role that could played by either 35K or 359 may be also by 78X with the proposed HGW. Could this 78X HGW do 14 hour flights with 300-350 seats? EVA 78X were seen doing flights close to 13 hrs. DAL 339 can be seen doing 12 hour flights. Risk management wise, going all 787 could pose operational issues. Therefore it may be sensible to go 339 or 359. CAPEX wise and crew wise 339 might be better. Operational flexibility wise 359.

A330's current domestic and short hauls/mediums can certainly be replaced by 321 XLR.


OTOH the newer QF A332s are 238MTOW and have been bumped to 242?

QF will likely end up with something between the A35K and A388 capacity wise, in either the A359 which will be capable of some very long flights or the 781 which if if of gets an MTOW increase will probably do routes like LAX-BNE at least, but the A359 will give more flexibility I think.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:38 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
OTOH the newer QF A332s are 238MTOW and have been bumped to 242?


I believe the newer QF A332s were at a lower MTOW and bumped up to 238t. QF’s newest A332 was delivered (late 2012) long before the 242t A332 was certified and delivered (early 2016) and as far as I am aware that MTOW upgrade is not retrofittable.

There are not a lot of 242t A332s out there, it’s a pretty rare plane.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:48 am

harshanajay wrote:
If they are looking for a 330 replacement,

Their
333 (233 MTOW) has 297 seats and the longest flight is 10 hrs (HNL-SYD)
332 (233 MTOW) has 271 & 251 seats (251 version blocks 17 seats for long haul) longest is 14 hrs (LAX-BNE)

There is news QF is reactivating A380 from 2023. When 380s relieve 789s from some long haul routes, they also could do 332's roles. If all QF 35K & 789 are 238, 236 seats, there is a gap between them and 484 seat A380. Again this is the QF that said it replaced 744 with 789. Capacity wise how has this played out? For example on SYD-LAX route DAL operates 359 (306 seat), UAL 789 with 250+ seats. QF does 789 with 236 seats. QF might be needing the 300-350 seat aircraft for long haul; a role that could played by either 35K or 359 may be also by 78X with the proposed HGW. Could this 78X HGW do 14 hour flights with 300-350 seats? EVA 78X were seen doing flights close to 13 hrs. DAL 339 can be seen doing 12 hour flights. Risk management wise, going all 787 could pose operational issues. Therefore it may be sensible to go 339 or 359. CAPEX wise and crew wise 339 might be better. Operational flexibility wise 359.

A330's current domestic and short hauls/mediums can certainly be replaced by 321 XLR.


I'm pretty sure QF has already activated A380s, QF1/2 (SYD-SIN-LHR) and around half of QF11/12 (SYD-LAX) are currently flown by A380s.
 
redroo
Posts: 648
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:50 am

QF will never do it as they love complexity in aircraft configuration but if it was me I’d stick to a fleet of 789 in a single config and a fleet of A350 in a single config. Maximum operational flexibility.

The 321 will pick up the domestic and some Asian flying (Perth!) and the 789 can be rotated through all the ports serving HKG one day and LAX the next.
 
harshanajay
Posts: 9
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:55 am

Polot wrote:
harshanajay wrote:

There is news QF is reactivating A380 from 2023. When 380s relieve 789s from some long haul routes, they also could do 332's roles.

The A380s won’t relieve 789s from long haul routes. Even when all the A380s are reactivated QF will be down 8 long haul planes (6 744ERs, 2 A380) compared to precovid. Still down 5 when you factor the 3 789s to be delivered. That’s why they have bumped up the MTOW of some A332s and are operating them long haul.

Technically with 11 (eventually 14) planes the 787 is QF’s primary long haul aircraft.

Risk management wise, going all 787 could pose operational issues.


But they are not…it would be a 787/A350 fleet. Not sure why going all 787 is an operational issue but going all A350 isn’t.


Agreed. 388 are currently only doing QF1 & 12. QF12 LAX is done by both 789 & 388, so they might prefer a larger aircraft than 789 for long haul but they are short of one. (UAL does a 350 seat 77W on SYD-SFO. I'm not very informed on why QF doesn't fly SYD-SFO.)

What I meant about 787 was, by going all 787 (332/333 replaced by 789 & 78X) if there was a grounding or sort of the type, there will be a disruption. This could be averted by going for either 339 or 359 since they have a mix of 789/359/35K then.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:04 am

harshanajay wrote:
Polot wrote:
harshanajay wrote:

There is news QF is reactivating A380 from 2023. When 380s relieve 789s from some long haul routes, they also could do 332's roles.

The A380s won’t relieve 789s from long haul routes. Even when all the A380s are reactivated QF will be down 8 long haul planes (6 744ERs, 2 A380) compared to precovid. Still down 5 when you factor the 3 789s to be delivered. That’s why they have bumped up the MTOW of some A332s and are operating them long haul.

Technically with 11 (eventually 14) planes the 787 is QF’s primary long haul aircraft.

Risk management wise, going all 787 could pose operational issues.


But they are not…it would be a 787/A350 fleet. Not sure why going all 787 is an operational issue but going all A350 isn’t.


Agreed. 388 are currently only doing QF1 & 12. QF12 LAX is done by both 789 & 388, so they might prefer a larger aircraft than 789 for long haul but they are short of one. (UAL does a 350 seat 77W on SYD-SFO. I'm not very informed on why QF doesn't fly SYD-SFO.)

What I meant about 787 was, by going all 787 (332/333 replaced by 789 & 78X) if there was a grounding or sort of the type, there will be a disruption. This could be averted by going for either 339 or 359 since they have a mix of 789/359/35K then.

And if there is a A330 or A350 grounding QF would be still be disrupted, not sure why it is assumed only the 787 is susceptible to a grounding. It’s impossible to not be disrupted by a grounding unless the fleet is tiny (in which case you are probably disrupted by delayed deliveries).
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:22 am

Polot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
OTOH the newer QF A332s are 238MTOW and have been bumped to 242?


I believe the newer QF A332s were at a lower MTOW and bumped up to 238t. QF’s newest A332 was delivered (late 2012) long before the 242t A332 was certified and delivered (early 2016) and as far as I am aware that MTOW upgrade is not retrofittable.

There are not a lot of 242t A332s out there, it’s a pretty rare plane.


You are probably right, thank you.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 9096
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:28 am

harshanajay wrote:
Polot wrote:
harshanajay wrote:

There is news QF is reactivating A380 from 2023. When 380s relieve 789s from some long haul routes, they also could do 332's roles.

The A380s won’t relieve 789s from long haul routes. Even when all the A380s are reactivated QF will be down 8 long haul planes (6 744ERs, 2 A380) compared to precovid. Still down 5 when you factor the 3 789s to be delivered. That’s why they have bumped up the MTOW of some A332s and are operating them long haul.

Technically with 11 (eventually 14) planes the 787 is QF’s primary long haul aircraft.

Risk management wise, going all 787 could pose operational issues.


But they are not…it would be a 787/A350 fleet. Not sure why going all 787 is an operational issue but going all A350 isn’t.


Agreed. 388 are currently only doing QF1 & 12. QF12 LAX is done by both 789 & 388, so they might prefer a larger aircraft than 789 for long haul but they are short of one. (UAL does a 350 seat 77W on SYD-SFO. I'm not very informed on why QF doesn't fly SYD-SFO.)

What I meant about 787 was, by going all 787 (332/333 replaced by 789 & 78X) if there was a grounding or sort of the type, there will be a disruption. This could be averted by going for either 339 or 359 since they have a mix of 789/359/35K then.



QF have pushed SYD-SFO back several times, now March 2023 it is due to resume 4x weekly. Pre covid they had added BNE and MEL-SFO, there hasn’t been any public talk that I’m aware of for these to return, BNE would likely be an A332 while they will launch MEL-DFW in December with the 789.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas Launches Contest for A330 Replacement

Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:33 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
20 A321XLRs have already been ordered, and I highly doubt QF will use them principally for domestic/transcon/trans-Tasman routes since they have much more range than necessary for this .


But the range is about future fleet commonality.

It's been suggested that the first 20 will be fitted out as 20J/ 180Y, which is very much a domestic config with likely recliner business seats (versus the 738 at 12/162)
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -max-order

Obviously this can change, but suggests the first 321XLRs will be to replace the domestic fleet.

Remember there are 21 737s in the VXx series (2002/2003 deliveries) and 4 332s EBA-EBD of similar age.

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