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redroo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:41 am

Any news qf789 on what's happening with the virgin A330 that is STILL parked at Perth? I saw it over the weekend and couldn't believe it was still there. Is that two years now its been sitting there baking in the Perth sun?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:50 am

qf789 wrote:
According to the AviationWA Facebook page Malindo has applied for and has been granted rights to operate KUL-PER-AKL and KUL-MEL-AKL

KUL-SYD to also go non stop

Not sure how reliable that is, considering the Malindo brand doesn't exist anymore and it's now Batik Air.

https://simpleflying.com/batik-air-mala ... r-737-max/

But if true, it would be very interesting, and would hopefully bring down super high trans-Tasman fares.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:04 am

redroo wrote:
Any news qf789 on what's happening with the virgin A330 that is STILL parked at Perth? I saw it over the weekend and couldn't believe it was still there. Is that two years now its been sitting there baking in the Perth sun?


XFE went out of service early in 2020 prior to covid hitting so it’s pushing 3 years now

Apparently the lessor had tried to get permission to fly it to SIN for repairs but wasn’t successful
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:05 am

planemanofnz wrote:
qf789 wrote:
According to the AviationWA Facebook page Malindo has applied for and has been granted rights to operate KUL-PER-AKL and KUL-MEL-AKL

KUL-SYD to also go non stop

Not sure how reliable that is, considering the Malindo brand doesn't exist anymore and it's now Batik Air.

https://simpleflying.com/batik-air-mala ... r-737-max/

But if true, it would be very interesting, and would hopefully bring down super high trans-Tasman fares.


I still refer to it as Malindo, on the post it was worded as Batik Air (Malindo)
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:53 pm

South African planning on returning to long haul in the near future, could include flights from both JNB and CPT

Routes include

PER-JNB
PER/SYD-CPT (could be one of the 2 or both)

https://www-hello--senegal-com.translat ... r_pto=wapp
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:00 pm

While on the subject of Batik Air Malaysia, they have started flights between PER and DPS today
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:05 pm

Being greedy, I kind of hope that MEL can get a South Africa flight again. The VA attempt was with an aircraft that was too big and with ETOPS restrictions that made it unviable, but still think the potential is there.

Looking at PER, will be even more challenging for SA with QF launching their flights to JNB. SA used to have that route to themselves afterall, and even though there is a significant potential market, having them both flying the route will be interesting.
 
redroo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:59 pm

qf789 wrote:
redroo wrote:
Any news qf789 on what's happening with the virgin A330 that is STILL parked at Perth? I saw it over the weekend and couldn't believe it was still there. Is that two years now its been sitting there baking in the Perth sun?


XFE went out of service early in 2020 prior to covid hitting so it’s pushing 3 years now

Apparently the lessor had tried to get permission to fly it to SIN for repairs but wasn’t successful


Wowsers. Thanks.
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:16 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
Being greedy, I kind of hope that MEL can get a South Africa flight again. The VA attempt was with an aircraft that was too big and with ETOPS restrictions that made it unviable, but still think the potential is there.

Looking at PER, will be even more challenging for SA with QF launching their flights to JNB. SA used to have that route to themselves afterall, and even though there is a significant potential market, having them both flying the route will be interesting.


ET flying to MEL would be more likely than SA re-starting MEL flights......
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:32 am

melpax wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
Being greedy, I kind of hope that MEL can get a South Africa flight again. The VA attempt was with an aircraft that was too big and with ETOPS restrictions that made it unviable, but still think the potential is there.

Looking at PER, will be even more challenging for SA with QF launching their flights to JNB. SA used to have that route to themselves afterall, and even though there is a significant potential market, having them both flying the route will be interesting.


ET flying to MEL would be more likely than SA re-starting MEL flights......


SA never flew to MEL, assume you meant VA. ET more likely to MEL than VA to JNB for sure, not really sure how likely that is, maybe an ADD-PER flight?

Not sure who would serve MEL-JNB, I wouldn’t see QF doing it.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:15 am

Unlikely VA will be returning to long haul anytime soon for the foreseeable future, so let's rule them out for now. The longstanding HND slot held by VA is likely to lapse by October (I'm assuming this date hasn't been extended).

Unlikely a MEL-Southern Africa will occur for the foreseeable future, can't see QF being interested and SA's resumption into Long Haul ex-JNB is also a while off and they have a medium term date (within 2 years).
 
kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:14 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Unlikely VA will be returning to long haul anytime soon for the foreseeable future, so let's rule them out for now. The longstanding HND slot held by VA is likely to lapse by October (I'm assuming this date hasn't been extended).

Unlikely a MEL-Southern Africa will occur for the foreseeable future, can't see QF being interested and SA's resumption into Long Haul ex-JNB is also a while off and they have a medium term date (within 2 years).


In the medium term I think in MEL’s case atleast there will be a few interesting routes pop up and I don’t think JNB is one of them.

MEL-SCL: LA to resume next year
MEL-ADD: ET seems interested in operating the route
MEL-TLV: LY seems quite adamant to launch the route
MEL-LHR: Project sunrise route with QF

But then you get your head scratching, with routes like MEL-ICN not operating and no one seems interested to operate it.

Then there’s routes that have been dropped due to COVID:

MEL-YVR: Maybe back seasonally with AC next year?
MEL-CGK: A ripe route for JQ with their A321LR’s
MEL-NOU: It took awhile for SB to launch MEL, but it could be back on once they expand again
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sun Sep 18, 2022 1:19 pm

I haven’t checked recently, but from memory the cities with the largest South Africa/Southern Africa populations are Perth, largish gap, Sydney, very large gap, Brisbane, smaller gap, Melbourne. There is relatively little diaspora travel from Melbourne compared to Sydney or Perth. I think Melbourne is still fourth, but even if it’s third the gap between MEL/BNE and SYD/PER is substantial. This is just one of many reasons why VA’s MEL-JNB route made so little sense outside of one month for the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Melbourne would have better luck with a hypothetical ET route given the relatively large Eastern Africa/Horn of Africa diaspora, which is the largest in the country.
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sun Sep 18, 2022 2:53 pm

kriskim wrote:


With LY looking to start MEL-TLV, Emirates have been running radio ads in Melbourne pushing their TLV flights. Remember that with CX largely out of play at the moment, EK is probably doing a fair share of the Australia-Israel traffic ATM.
 
myki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:24 pm

kriskim wrote:
MEL-CGK: A ripe route for JQ with their A321LR’s

With GA stripping back the majority of international routes and no sign of returning to MEL, then yep, a couple of days a week for JQ or QF on the MEL-CGK route should be doable.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:29 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
I haven’t checked recently, but from memory the cities with the largest South Africa/Southern Africa populations are Perth, largish gap, Sydney, very large gap, Brisbane, smaller gap, Melbourne. There is relatively little diaspora travel from Melbourne compared to Sydney or Perth. I think Melbourne is still fourth, but even if it’s third the gap between MEL/BNE and SYD/PER is substantial. This is just one of many reasons why VA’s MEL-JNB route made so little sense outside of one month for the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Melbourne would have better luck with a hypothetical ET route given the relatively large Eastern Africa/Horn of Africa diaspora, which is the largest in the country.


As a South African in Melbourne, I can confirm that it's a far smaller community than Sydney, although I'd suspect it's larger than Brisbane.

Something that people forget about the PER-JNB flights is that they are as much about the strong mining links between Western Australia and Africa in general, and not just about the South African community in Perth. SA carried a lot of connecting traffic through their regional network. With QF taking over the route they won't quite have the same connecting opportunities since JNB's regional network is much smaller, but also QF's flight isn't well timed for connections in JNB without an overnight stop. It would certainly open the door a little more for ET.

I don't think VA were entirely focussed on the O&D market to/from MEL, but they thought that at least flying from MEL would give then some unique selling proposition. At the time, they were on a hiding to nothing competing with QF and SA who had a bilateral codeshare (until 2014). I do wonder how it would have been different had they been able to partner with SA at that time rather than going it alone.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:42 pm

kriskim wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Unlikely VA will be returning to long haul anytime soon for the foreseeable future, so let's rule them out for now. The longstanding HND slot held by VA is likely to lapse by October (I'm assuming this date hasn't been extended).

Unlikely a MEL-Southern Africa will occur for the foreseeable future, can't see QF being interested and SA's resumption into Long Haul ex-JNB is also a while off and they have a medium term date (within 2 years).


In the medium term I think in MEL’s case atleast there will be a few interesting routes pop up and I don’t think JNB is one of them.

MEL-SCL: LA to resume next year
MEL-ADD: ET seems interested in operating the route
MEL-TLV: LY seems quite adamant to launch the route
MEL-LHR: Project sunrise route with QF

But then you get your head scratching, with routes like MEL-ICN not operating and no one seems interested to operate it.

Then there’s routes that have been dropped due to COVID:

MEL-YVR: Maybe back seasonally with AC next year?
MEL-CGK: A ripe route for JQ with their A321LR’s
MEL-NOU: It took awhile for SB to launch MEL, but it could be back on once they expand again


Be interesting if QF ever return to MEL-SFO also. I’m sure one day we will see TK IST-MEL, but not sure they have the fleet for it atm, or they could deploy them elsewhere more profitably.

I do hope we see QF add PER-CPT some day, even seasonally would get decent feed from the east coast.
 
An767
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:07 am

melpax wrote:
kriskim wrote:


With LY looking to start MEL-TLV, Emirates have been running radio ads in Melbourne pushing their TLV flights. Remember that with CX largely out of play at the moment, EK is probably doing a fair share of the Australia-Israel traffic ATM.


A lot of pax ex LY are jumping on QF24 from BKK at the moment. I flew back a few weeks ago and cabin crew mentioned a lot jump on as its a quick connection, J cabin is very popular with them.
AN767
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:34 am

I think MEL-SFO will come back, once the airlines has totally recovered from covid and they are running at 100% I think United had started SFO from Melbourne before covid hit Qantas had a night time departure to SFO from Melbourne. Once the airlines recover fully, you will see Qantas back to SFO once they activate all their 787s, not sure about Garuda Indonesia have they dropped Melbourne altogether, I checked on their webb site and it said 2 of their Jakarta flights go via Sydney, once they get their house in order, they will return to most of Australia, El AL is interesting started MEL covid hit, then that was it for them, seen from these forums that they have said they will come back, but I think it will take a long time for them to return. VA to South Africa just did not work and got pulled very quickly just like they pulled Phuket quickly, SA have never flown to Melbourne, Qantas has never flown a service to South Africa, I dont think we will see ET at Melbourne, if they do come to Australia, it will be Perth they serve. Just my thoughts.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:58 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
I think MEL-SFO will come back, once the airlines has totally recovered from covid and they are running at 100% I think United had started SFO from Melbourne before covid hit Qantas had a night time departure to SFO from Melbourne. Once the airlines recover fully, you will see Qantas back to SFO once they activate all their 787s, not sure about Garuda Indonesia have they dropped Melbourne altogether, I checked on their webb site and it said 2 of their Jakarta flights go via Sydney, once they get their house in order, they will return to most of Australia.


UA has already returned to MEL-SFO long ago, I think QF on the same route ex-MEL is a long while (medium term) off considering QF had deferred SYD-SFO yet again until the end of March for the IATA NS season.

Garuda IMO is a long while off, considering they're taking the downsize to be primarily a 'domestic carrier' with a few nearby international destinations like Virgin Australia has done. SYD-CGK on GA may be the only route for GA for the foreseeable future, although one point recently GA had operated the route as a CGK-DPS-SYD-CGK triangle (or was it DPS-SYD-CGK-DPS)?.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:18 am

Agree that JNB is a long shot from MEL, but hey I was just being greedy.

MEL-CGK on JQ would make sense given that GA is unlikely to return.

ET’s strongest potential market would likely be MEL, but ADD’s elevation and the length of the route make that a very hard one to achieve non-stop.

LY and TK have MEL on their radars, with the former being talked about far more lately. TK need an aircraft to operate the route non-stop to really make it a viable one from MEL/SYD.

It seems that MEL’s network is filled with quite a few destinations with multiple airlines either currently operating or scheduled to restart, including DPS, NAN, AKL, WLG, CHC, ZQN, SIN, KUL, BKK, LAX, HKG, MNL, SGN, DEL and HND/NRT. It would be nice to see more variety in destinations offered, but once again, that’s just me being greedy.
Last edited by IndianicWorld on Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:19 am

duplicate post
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:38 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
I think MEL-SFO will come back, once the airlines has totally recovered from covid and they are running at 100% I think United had started SFO from Melbourne before covid hit Qantas had a night time departure to SFO from Melbourne. Once the airlines recover fully, you will see Qantas back to SFO once they activate all their 787s.


I'm not convinced. I think too many people analyse transpacific routes on a point-to-point basis when it's more about total capacity, and particularly on the US side of things where a far greater proportion of passengers are connecting from/onto flights in SFO, LAX, DFW, YVR and IAH. Probably only JFK is a real terminator flight. Airlines are going to push capacity through the hubs that offer them the most connecting options, capacity and efficiency.

UA's big push on SFO-Australia flights is primarily because they're making a play for the VA market share. SFO is their largest West Coast hub and thus their best point to replace the VA capacity which was funnelled through LAX. QF are shifting capacity from SFO to DFW since they have a much stronger feed (connecting option, capacity and more efficiency) at DFW than SFO. They're not dropping SFO entirely, but I don't expect we'll see the same frequency/capacity for QF at SFO. The reason for the timing is likely a function of the aircraft now being available to do it and that UA's scale-up probably sucks into the remaining local O&D market a little too much. Also, QF are at a disadvantage in the local the SFO O&D market since AA have underwhelming scale at SFO and UA are able to provide a better POS presence in the market.

Flyingsottsman wrote:
VA to South Africa just did not work and got pulled very quickly just like they pulled Phuket quickly, SA have never flown to Melbourne, Qantas has never flown a service to South Africa, I dont think we will see ET at Melbourne, if they do come to Australia, it will be Perth they serve. Just my thoughts.


I know it's probably not relevant to this discussion, but Qantas flights to South Africa in the 1960s did fly via Melbourne. The routing was SYD-MEL-PER-CCK-MRU-JNB on the B707.
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:44 am

QF flew direct MEL-JNB B744 20+ years ago
 
freshwater
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:45 am

evanb wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
I think MEL-SFO will come back, once the airlines has totally recovered from covid and they are running at 100% I think United had started SFO from Melbourne before covid hit Qantas had a night time departure to SFO from Melbourne. Once the airlines recover fully, you will see Qantas back to SFO once they activate all their 787s.


I'm not convinced. I think too many people analyse transpacific routes on a point-to-point basis when it's more about total capacity, and particularly on the US side of things where a far greater proportion of passengers are connecting from/onto flights in SFO, LAX, DFW, YVR and IAH. Probably only JFK is a real terminator flight. Airlines are going to push capacity through the hubs that offer them the most connecting options, capacity and efficiency.

UA's big push on SFO-Australia flights is primarily because they're making a play for the VA market share. SFO is their largest West Coast hub and thus their best point to replace the VA capacity which was funnelled through LAX. QF are shifting capacity from SFO to DFW since they have a much stronger feed (connecting option, capacity and more efficiency) at DFW than SFO. They're not dropping SFO entirely, but I don't expect we'll see the same frequency/capacity for QF at SFO. The reason for the timing is likely a function of the aircraft now being available to do it and that UA's scale-up probably sucks into the remaining local O&D market a little too much. Also, QF are at a disadvantage in the local the SFO O&D market since AA have underwhelming scale at SFO and UA are able to provide a better POS presence in the market.
.


Don't forget QF tap into the OW AS feed at SFO and potentially SEA in the future, which could be leveraged far more than already is.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:48 am

vhebb wrote:
QF flew direct MEL-JNB B744 20+ years ago


http://www.departedflights.com/MEL96intro.html

October 96 schedules has 1 weekly JNB-MEL one way, did they at some point fly MEL-JNB as well?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:51 am

freshwater wrote:
evanb wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
I think MEL-SFO will come back, once the airlines has totally recovered from covid and they are running at 100% I think United had started SFO from Melbourne before covid hit Qantas had a night time departure to SFO from Melbourne. Once the airlines recover fully, you will see Qantas back to SFO once they activate all their 787s.


I'm not convinced. I think too many people analyse transpacific routes on a point-to-point basis when it's more about total capacity, and particularly on the US side of things where a far greater proportion of passengers are connecting from/onto flights in SFO, LAX, DFW, YVR and IAH. Probably only JFK is a real terminator flight. Airlines are going to push capacity through the hubs that offer them the most connecting options, capacity and efficiency.

UA's big push on SFO-Australia flights is primarily because they're making a play for the VA market share. SFO is their largest West Coast hub and thus their best point to replace the VA capacity which was funnelled through LAX. QF are shifting capacity from SFO to DFW since they have a much stronger feed (connecting option, capacity and more efficiency) at DFW than SFO. They're not dropping SFO entirely, but I don't expect we'll see the same frequency/capacity for QF at SFO. The reason for the timing is likely a function of the aircraft now being available to do it and that UA's scale-up probably sucks into the remaining local O&D market a little too much. Also, QF are at a disadvantage in the local the SFO O&D market since AA have underwhelming scale at SFO and UA are able to provide a better POS presence in the market.
.


Don't forget QF tap into the OW AS feed at SFO and potentially SEA in the future, which could be leveraged far more than already is.


I would still have thought we would see MEL-SFO again. Maybe BNE before MEL? Not sure QF need 2 BNE-LAX flights everyday? Move a few a week back to SFO?
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:55 am

evanb wrote:
I know it's probably not relevant to this discussion, but Qantas flights to South Africa in the 1960s did fly via Melbourne. The routing was SYD-MEL-PER-CCK-MRU-JNB on the B707.

That was the routing in the days of the Lockheed Electra. IIRC when the 707s came in CCK was dropped, and possibly also MRU - others may recall re MRU. I think MEL was dropped then too.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:02 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
freshwater wrote:
evanb wrote:

I'm not convinced. I think too many people analyse transpacific routes on a point-to-point basis when it's more about total capacity, and particularly on the US side of things where a far greater proportion of passengers are connecting from/onto flights in SFO, LAX, DFW, YVR and IAH. Probably only JFK is a real terminator flight. Airlines are going to push capacity through the hubs that offer them the most connecting options, capacity and efficiency.

UA's big push on SFO-Australia flights is primarily because they're making a play for the VA market share. SFO is their largest West Coast hub and thus their best point to replace the VA capacity which was funnelled through LAX. QF are shifting capacity from SFO to DFW since they have a much stronger feed (connecting option, capacity and more efficiency) at DFW than SFO. They're not dropping SFO entirely, but I don't expect we'll see the same frequency/capacity for QF at SFO. The reason for the timing is likely a function of the aircraft now being available to do it and that UA's scale-up probably sucks into the remaining local O&D market a little too much. Also, QF are at a disadvantage in the local the SFO O&D market since AA have underwhelming scale at SFO and UA are able to provide a better POS presence in the market.
.


Don't forget QF tap into the OW AS feed at SFO and potentially SEA in the future, which could be leveraged far more than already is.


I would still have thought we would see MEL-SFO again. Maybe BNE before MEL? Not sure QF need 2 BNE-LAX flights everyday? Move a few a week back to SFO?


Can't see QF restating BNE-SFO for the foreseeable future when there is the Queensland Government and BAC funding the 3x weekly UA BNE-SFO service under the Attracting Aviation Investment Fund (AAIF) for any given period between 12 and 24 months (the funding term length is undisclosed, iirc).
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:49 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
I would still have thought we would see MEL-SFO again. Maybe BNE before MEL? Not sure QF need 2 BNE-LAX flights everyday? Move a few a week back to SFO?


QF is reducing BNE-LAX to once a daily only at the end of October. They had planned twice daily but that got quickly reduced. I think right now they are 10 weekly.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:00 am

Challenge with all of this is of course QF don’t have the frames for all this flying. And even with the 380s returning, and new 789s - with all their route announcements, they are still pretty tight - especially if HKG, PVG, and PEK return. They have returned to HND from SYD haven't they, but not MEL?

Will they be able to add back BNE/SYD/MEL-HKG with 330s?

Fascinated to see if the 330 replacement also allows flexibility for more long-haul flying.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:16 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I would still have thought we would see MEL-SFO again. Maybe BNE before MEL? Not sure QF need 2 BNE-LAX flights everyday? Move a few a week back to SFO?


QF is reducing BNE-LAX to once a daily only at the end of October. They had planned twice daily but that got quickly reduced. I think right now they are 10 weekly.



That’s interesting I wasn’t aware of that. Big drop in capacity from 4 years ago when it was a daily 744.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:23 am

smi0006 wrote:
Challenge with all of this is of course QF don’t have the frames for all this flying. And even with the 380s returning, and new 789s - with all their route announcements, they are still pretty tight - especially if HKG, PVG, and PEK return. They have returned to HND from SYD haven't they, but not MEL?

Will they be able to add back BNE/SYD/MEL-HKG with 330s?

Fascinated to see if the 330 replacement also allows flexibility for more long-haul flying.


Yes SYD-HND has restarted, nothing on MEL.

There is quite a bit of slack in the A330 fleet I think atm with several routes not restarted yet. And less domestic flying than before. Quite a few adhoc A330s on the Tasman to upgauge from 738s.

The A330 replacement will surely allow flexibility of more long haul flying, the exact mix of aircraft will be varied I think but certainly some long haul configured aircraft in there that go to Asia and the US etc, I would likely pick 789s but maybe some 359s in the mix?
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:37 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I would still have thought we would see MEL-SFO again. Maybe BNE before MEL? Not sure QF need 2 BNE-LAX flights everyday? Move a few a week back to SFO?


QF is reducing BNE-LAX to once a daily only at the end of October. They had planned twice daily but that got quickly reduced. I think right now they are 10 weekly.


IIRC QF filed for double daily BNE-LAX but they never fully utilised the capacity, usually peaking to 10x weekly at times but drops back to daily.

The frame currently used for the extra 3x weekly BNE-LAX may be required elsewhere for the NW season. I don't think SFO was ever considered, especially when SYD was deferred again to NS season from March 2023, and the State of Queensland/BAC directly approaching UA a few months ago with AAIF funding incentives to fill the SFO gap from QF's absence, hence the new QLD-SFO service.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1992
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:56 pm

smi0006 wrote:
Challenge with all of this is of course QF don’t have the frames for all this flying. And even with the 380s returning, and new 789s - with all their route announcements, they are still pretty tight - especially if HKG, PVG, and PEK return. They have returned to HND from SYD haven't they, but not MEL?

Will they be able to add back BNE/SYD/MEL-HKG with 330s?

Fascinated to see if the 330 replacement also allows flexibility for more long-haul flying.

They dropped PEK pre-Covid and that was the second time they dropped the route. Doubt it'll come back anytime soon.

IIRC QF is (re?)starting MEL-HND 3x weekly in NW22.

Michael
 
evanb
Posts: 1285
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:54 pm

freshwater wrote:
Don't forget QF tap into the OW AS feed at SFO and potentially SEA in the future, which could be leveraged far more than already is.


I'm not forgetting this feed at all. However, AS is not part of the transpacific joint venture which QF have with AA. It provides very different access including number of connections, capacity, revenue management and sales coordination. Furthermore, the scope and scale of AA's POS presence in the US is vastly superior to anything AS can offer.

To put scale in perspective, AA carries more passengers to/from SFO than AS, even though it's a hub for AS and not for AA. But that isn't really the important element in this which is that QF-AA run their transpacific routes as a joint venture and it's in their mutual interest to evolve capacity towards each others' hubs.
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 868
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:18 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
vhebb wrote:
QF flew direct MEL-JNB B744 20+ years ago


http://www.departedflights.com/MEL96intro.html

October 96 schedules has 1 weekly JNB-MEL one way, did they at some point fly MEL-JNB as well?


:o wow I did not know that. how long did that flight last for and did they get good loads from MEL?
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 868
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:57 pm

smi0006 wrote:
Challenge with all of this is of course QF don’t have the frames for all this flying. And even with the 380s returning, and new 789s - with all their route announcements, they are still pretty tight - especially if HKG, PVG, and PEK return. They have returned to HND from SYD haven't they, but not MEL?

Will they be able to add back BNE/SYD/MEL-HKG with 330s?

Fascinated to see if the 330 replacement also allows flexibility for more long-haul flying.


Do you think they were in to much of a hurry to get rid of the 744, how many 787's do they have at the moment? Seems like the A330's are really becoming a work house for QF. Not sure if PVG or PEK will return any time soon, they will ramp up HKG before they return back to the mainland China. How long is it until the A350s' come into Qantas, sounds like they could do with them right now.
 
evanb
Posts: 1285
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:34 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
Do you think they were in to much of a hurry to get rid of the 744, how many 787's do they have at the moment? Seems like the A330's are really becoming a work house for QF. Not sure if PVG or PEK will return any time soon, they will ramp up HKG before they return back to the mainland China. How long is it until the A350s' come into Qantas, sounds like they could do with them right now.


Probably not. While it may seem shortsighted, the original retirement schedule (end 2020/early 2021) was influenced by maintenance schedules. The final B744s were likely approaching some significant heavy maintenance checks which would have been pretty expensive for an older aircraft. The check would only have been worth it if they could make a case to operate the aircraft for a number of years, which seemed unlikely.
 
vhebb
Posts: 407
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:44 am

I think QF are wishing they never retired the 2 A380s, plus a few yrs ago ended the leases on the 2 A332s EBH and EBI, both those could be very handy over the next 2yrs.
Last edited by vhebb on Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2573
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:44 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
Challenge with all of this is of course QF don’t have the frames for all this flying. And even with the 380s returning, and new 789s - with all their route announcements, they are still pretty tight - especially if HKG, PVG, and PEK return. They have returned to HND from SYD haven't they, but not MEL?

Will they be able to add back BNE/SYD/MEL-HKG with 330s?

Fascinated to see if the 330 replacement also allows flexibility for more long-haul flying.


Do you think they were in to much of a hurry to get rid of the 744, how many 787's do they have at the moment? Seems like the A330's are really becoming a work house for QF. Not sure if PVG or PEK will return any time soon, they will ramp up HKG before they return back to the mainland China. How long is it until the A350s' come into Qantas, sounds like they could do with them right now.


The A350s aren't scheduled to arrive until 2025. Getting the remaining 5 A380s back into service is the current prioroty, along with working through Boeing's 787 woes to get the 3x789 out of the desert and delivered.

When Covid hit, only 4x744ER were still in service, and were already planned to exit within 12 months or so.
 
vhebb
Posts: 407
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:51 am

QF had 6 B744s (the ERs) flying and active up until covid. They were operating:

Daily SYD-JNB
Daily SYD-HND
5x SYD-HNL
4x SYD-SCL

The 3x 789s that were due delivery were already loaded into the advance schedules:

4x weekly BNE-ORD
Daily SYD-SCL (Replacing the 4x weeky B744)

So even after the remaing 3 789s arrived the B744s were still flying SYD-JNB, HND, and HNL with no sign of replacement aircraft.
Last edited by vhebb on Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 1163
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:51 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
Challenge with all of this is of course QF don’t have the frames for all this flying. And even with the 380s returning, and new 789s - with all their route announcements, they are still pretty tight - especially if HKG, PVG, and PEK return. They have returned to HND from SYD haven't they, but not MEL?

Will they be able to add back BNE/SYD/MEL-HKG with 330s?

Fascinated to see if the 330 replacement also allows flexibility for more long-haul flying.


Do you think they were in to much of a hurry to get rid of the 744, how many 787's do they have at the moment? Seems like the A330's are really becoming a work house for QF. Not sure if PVG or PEK will return any time soon, they will ramp up HKG before they return back to the mainland China. How long is it until the A350s' come into Qantas, sounds like they could do with them right now.


As mentioned by other users in this thread, not sure if PEK will be coming back online for QF anytime soon, if ever.
QF failed to make PEK work the first time and they were struggling on their second PEK run just before Covid shut everything down.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 9354
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:29 am

vhebb wrote:
QF had 6 B744s (the ERs) flying and active up until covid. They were operating:

Daily SYD-JNB
Daily SYD-HND
5x SYD-HNL
4x SYD-SCL

The 3x 789s that were due delivery were already loaded into the advance schedules:

4x weekly BNE-ORD
Daily SYD-SCL (Replacing the 4x weeky B744)

So even after the remaing 3 789s arrived the B744s were still flying SYD-JNB, HND, and HNL with no sign of replacement aircraft.


This is testing my memory, but did QF ever make it to 2 daily BNE-USA? I think it peaked at 11x BNE-LAX and then 7x BNE-LAX/3x BNE-SFO right before Covid, but can’t remember if the increased LAX frequency continued after SFO started?
 
vhebb
Posts: 407
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:33 am

Pretty tight for 3x 789s to do BNE-ORD as well as SYD-JNB and SCL.

QF didn't have spare A330s to do HND and HNL.

Prior to covid the QF wide body fleet was highly utilised.
 
vhebb
Posts: 407
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:36 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
vhebb wrote:
QF had 6 B744s (the ERs) flying and active up until covid. They were operating:

Daily SYD-JNB
Daily SYD-HND
5x SYD-HNL
4x SYD-SCL

The 3x 789s that were due delivery were already loaded into the advance schedules:

4x weekly BNE-ORD
Daily SYD-SCL (Replacing the 4x weeky B744)

So even after the remaing 3 789s arrived the B744s were still flying SYD-JNB, HND, and HNL with no sign of replacement aircraft.


This is testing my memory, but did QF ever make it to 2 daily BNE-USA? I think it peaked at 11x BNE-LAX and then 7x BNE-LAX/3x BNE-SFO right before Covid, but can’t remember if the increased LAX frequency continued after SFO started?


Double daily 789s BNE-USA was scheduled but never eventuated due covid.

7x BNE-LAX
3x SFO and 4x ORD
 
freshwater
Posts: 55
Joined: Mon May 04, 2020 10:24 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:52 am

vhebb wrote:
Pretty tight for 3x 789s to do BNE-ORD as well as SYD-JNB and SCL.

QF didn't have spare A330s to do HND and HNL.

Prior to covid the QF wide body fleet was highly utilised.


I flew the seasonal SYD-CTS return in March 2020 just as COVID restrictions were biting, the A330 for which must have come from some NW slack somewhere in the system. I don't recall the loads being particularly good in either direction but the return was one of the last QF Japan flights before the borders were closed and passenger anxiety was high. As fun a journey as it was with everyone on ski holidays (Niseko was incredible), I'm not holding my breath for it's return with the current state of QF and the Japanese travel industry.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 9354
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:54 am

vhebb wrote:
Pretty tight for 3x 789s to do BNE-ORD as well as SYD-JNB and SCL.

QF didn't have spare A330s to do HND and HNL.

Prior to covid the QF wide body fleet was highly utilised.


You’re right about the 3x 787s, I actually edited that out before you posted as I realised I was wrong. Regardless, the 744s were due to be retired by December 2020, so there would have been an internal plan to cover this. They obviously thought it was possible, at least before the 787 delays.
 
freshwater
Posts: 55
Joined: Mon May 04, 2020 10:24 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:54 am

evanb wrote:
freshwater wrote:
Don't forget QF tap into the OW AS feed at SFO and potentially SEA in the future, which could be leveraged far more than already is.


I'm not forgetting this feed at all. However, AS is not part of the transpacific joint venture which QF have with AA. It provides very different access including number of connections, capacity, revenue management and sales coordination. Furthermore, the scope and scale of AA's POS presence in the US is vastly superior to anything AS can offer.

To put scale in perspective, AA carries more passengers to/from SFO than AS, even though it's a hub for AS and not for AA. But that isn't really the important element in this which is that QF-AA run their transpacific routes as a joint venture and it's in their mutual interest to evolve capacity towards each others' hubs.


Interesting that AA is bigger at SFO than AS, I did not know that. Completely agree with the joint venture being a higher priority for obvious reasons but I would like to see QF leverage AS further than they currently do... particularly to the Pacific Northwest.
 
Obzerva
Posts: 637
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:48 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2022

Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:58 am

QF failed to make PEK work twice, and that was when Australia-China relations were a lot friendlier, I doubt they'd be mad enough to have a third go
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