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SYD330
Topic Author
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu May 26, 2016 1:12 am

Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:45 am

Does anyone know any fleet renewal plans coming up for CX or new orders soon?
 
NZ321
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Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sat Sep 03, 2022 12:19 pm

Its being discussed in another thread - the regular CX thread I think
 
jfk777
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Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:19 pm

Cathay Pacific has always had a very robust fleet renewal program because they don't keep planes forever. Their A350 fleet is new and more are coming. Their A330-300 fleet & regional 777-300(no ER) are the ones needing. The 777-300ER has been the flagship before the pandemic and some have come off lease during the pandemic so that fleet is smaller today than in 2019. They have 21 777-9 on order if Boeing ever gets the plane certified, which seems more important than the 737-10. Cathay will be fine with A350's & 777-9 plus whatever replaces the A330 regional fleet.

They do have some new A321neo since they absorbed Hong Kong Express.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 12:36 am

I think the 78J or A330neo is their next regional widebody.
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1992
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Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 3:11 am

jfk777 wrote:

They do have some new A321neo since they absorbed Hong Kong Express.

Hong Kong Express' A321neo still belong to HKE. CX's A321neo came from its own order that were originally destined for Dragonair (Cathay Dragon).

I think this topic just came up a couple weeks ago. Nothing changes really.

Michael
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 3:20 am

jfk777 wrote:
Their A350 fleet is new and more are coming. Their A330-300 fleet & regional 777-300(no ER) are the ones needing. The 777-300ER has been the flagship before the pandemic and some have come off lease during the pandemic so that fleet is smaller today than in 2019. They have 21 777-9 on order if Boeing ever gets the plane certified... Cathay will be fine with A350's & 777-9 plus whatever replaces the A330 regional fleet. They do have some new A321neo since they absorbed Hong Kong Express.


TWA772LR wrote:
I think the 78J or A330neo is their next regional widebody.


While the A330NEO might be a great aircraft here, I do wonder what missions Cathay (or associated/potential brand) will need these aircraft on, and what the best platform will be for them in the short/medium and long-term goals in a way that are truly and dynamically 'interesting' for not only Hong Kong, but also Cathay (as a Nation, and as a business) as they weather numerous challenges. In the past (and I will admit that this was from time prior to the brand marriage of Cathay and DragonAir) the main issue was that of costs. Cathay was well able to command a premium and so did, however this was still a challenge. The carrier has (admittedly, due to many challenges) had to limit costs, and via COVID has not been able to rebound as well as others (and thus, had to respond to the pivots and shifts in business foci - towards premium economy and towards new realities in business and 'first' services where and when able).

I offer this, because I could see them further focusing on costs - and thus, can't see adding a new fleet type as needed (despite, perhaps the 787-10 having been a great contender for a contract here). As you have said, the 777-9 will/may arrive when it will, and so won't directly affect this space, save for a planned delay in EIS. For the purposes of serving those routes though (albeit with a smaller aircraft), the A350 can be substituted as a short-term, or sort-of, bridge until then (and/or until new cabins/offerings/services become available). The A330NEO will shine in a key envelope, and on trunk routes. The aircraft can, impressively, grow to operate on some longer legs, and so is a great platform for short and medium term growth. Leasing would be attractive. That said, a strategic move would be to potentially focus on further A350s in this space.

Since Covid, many of these legacy carrier (and certainly within OneWorld) have become comfortable with less-than-daily frequencies, and this advantageously would allow Cathay to operate at HKG (which was previously slot constrained) to offer/expand/return to more markets, potentially at/when the costs best benefit them. 'Eating' it at A350 costs may be an interestingly costing option, especially as it may well allow them to expand their cabin offerings a bit more (larger premium economy, perhaps new/further business class/premium cabin upgrades/offerings, and with enough expansion in coach to support those moves if other cabins cannot always). This has an added bonus of better focusing when and where the A321s are purposed. I would offer (without judgement, as these are independent markets and cases) JL's use of A350s for Domestic purposes (and/or how the A330NEO could have been a great choice here as well) as well as QF's consideration for their own A330CEO replacements (along some of the same lines). Surely, Cathay does not offer a direct substitute to these partners, however it is interesting to consider how Cathay will respond to new challenges, costs and opportunities - now, and well into the future.
 
S0Y
Posts: 191
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:25 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 3:28 am

One would think that CX leadership would be conservative in terms of capital investment until there is more clarity on the path forward. Even before Covid, there were questions on if HKG could continue to operate at the same level
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 4:00 am

Outside of cargo business I think CX is just trying to hang on and survive. Fleet renewal is probably the least of their concerns.
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1933
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 4:35 am

Will China even let CX continue to exist? Only a matter of time until the CCP nationalizes it.
 
smi0006
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Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 5:46 am

9w748capt wrote:
Will China even let CX continue to exist? Only a matter of time until the CCP nationalizes it.


Agree with this and the last three posts - CX is on life support, I question if HKG will be allowed to function as a hub without Beijings political influence/meddling. I’d suggest CX being part owned by Swire is a red flag to a bull for the Chinese and we’ll see CX gobbled up by Air China who already hold 28%. I wonder how long beforeCAAC bundles CXs orders into their mega orders…
 
MikeSYR
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Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:39 am

Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 1:55 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
I think the 78J or A330neo is their next regional widebody.

I hope so. The 78J would be a great 773 replacement while A330neo as the A330 replacement.
 
Scanorama
Posts: 162
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Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 2:39 pm

The last thing on CX mind is fleet renewal. When HK/China eventually opens its border (and who knows how far away that will be), CX will be a much smaller airline than pre-2019. Right now, their priority is survival and conserving cash. Their older A333s and 77Ws are already parked, moving forward, their fleet will consist of A321neo, A350 and 77W. I don’t think the A333s will stay for long. I am doubtful if the 779s will ever join CX.

HKG as a hub will also be greatly diminished due to geopolitical issues, which was already happening in early 2020.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 2:56 pm

MikeSYR wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
I think the 78J or A330neo is their next regional widebody.

I hope so. The 78J would be a great 773 replacement while A330neo as the A330 replacement.


No way the order both imo
 
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Antaras
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Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 4:33 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
MikeSYR wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
I think the 78J or A330neo is their next regional widebody.

I hope so. The 78J would be a great 773 replacement while A330neo as the A330 replacement.


No way the order both imo

78X itself is already a relatively fine replacement for both the A333 and B773.
 
BHRN
Posts: 53
Joined: Fri May 08, 2020 11:16 am

Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sun Sep 04, 2022 6:14 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Outside of cargo business I think CX is just trying to hang on and survive. Fleet renewal is probably the least of their concerns.


In the real world, companies don't stop planning ahead just because their accounts are in red or the outlook is dim.

You can have different scenarios (optimistic/baseline/pessimistic) in your planning but you don't sit there to wait.

This is especially true to airlines as their plans (capital investment, route development, manpower) all takes a long lead-time to execute.
 
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zeke
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Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:20 am

Scanorama wrote:
I don’t think the A333s will stay for long.


Read into these tea leave as you wish, a relatively new A330 sim was bought off skymark, and another A330 sim has within the last month just finished a major upgrade.

One of the older A330/340 sims was removed and an A350 put in its place, and another is just used as a fixed base trainer.
 
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hongkongflyer
Posts: 993
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:23 am

Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Tue Sep 06, 2022 7:27 am

smi0006 wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
Will China even let CX continue to exist? Only a matter of time until the CCP nationalizes it.


Agree with this and the last three posts - CX is on life support, I question if HKG will be allowed to function as a hub without Beijings political influence/meddling. I’d suggest CX being part owned by Swire is a red flag to a bull for the Chinese and we’ll see CX gobbled up by Air China who already hold 28%. I wonder how long beforeCAAC bundles CXs orders into their mega orders…


Even HX (much more influence from CAAC)'s order are not bundles with CAAC's order...
 
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DanielsBrawley
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:02 pm

Re: Cathay Pacific fleet renewal plans?

Sat Sep 10, 2022 4:51 pm

It’s bloody laughable thinking of CX’s “fleet renewal” when they’ll be lucky to survive the quarantine quagmire created by the HK gov. Some of those still working at the company feel the rules are meant to force Spire out by making such crippling operational conditions that nobody (except mainland carriers) could survive. Check out the latest nonsense of “science based” guidelines.

I wish my former colleagues all the luck in the world. They’re going to need it.

https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202 ... 900649.htm

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