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dfwfanboy
Posts: 158
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:41 pm

Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:01 pm

codc10 wrote:
dfwfanboy wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

Boom and VTOL have nothing to do with it. They are totally posturing for free slots and who wouldn’t do that if it had a chance of working? Delta was a squatter at Love Field for years and it ended up working for them. Don’t hate the player.

Boom and VTOL were just examples of United having cash to buy slots. You're absolutely right that they have plenty of cash besides their investment money.

Delta was fighting eviction from Love Field due to lack of gates. United is choosing to leave JFK since the FAA doesn't want to give them incremental free slots. There doesn't seem to be anything about eviction in the United memo -- "Unfortunately, we have not been successful in gaining additional permanent slots.". It's just that the FAA won't give them new incremental free slots above what they currently got for free.
But, I don't disagree about your overall point, if you can get them for free, why pay? But UA put themselves in a weird place saying they'll leave if they don't get free slots, it's not like they're getting kicked out of JFK.


You’re completely missing the point.

United has the cash to buy slots. They would buy slots if anyone was selling. To date, nobody has been selling. That might change soon, but in the meantime it makes perfect sense for United to make this argument.


To be blunt, you don't know that unless you work in UA negotiating slot purchases/leases which, for your sake, I hope you don't.

Norse Atlantic & NZ have managed to do it to name two.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5663
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Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:10 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
This is just a power play to get more slots due to the NEA soon going to litigation. imo.

So? Even if it IS? Can you Blame them? After the merger with CO the CO based management team wanted to consolidate much of the NY
c flying to at EWR because that was their Hub. and they got their way (since they were running the show). Many people said it was a bad idea but those us of us who were at United didn't have a say. JUST because CO management was running the show. Later on? it came to light that we actually made a mistake in ending JFK service and present management agrees with that idea. EWR is OK for now but we ALL the Hub at EWR is still; PANYNJ. But it's NOT Kennedy'1 Present Management is looking to grow and expand the brand and serving kennedy would grow an expand United's international reach and the reach of Star Alliance. It's business as Business should be Done! there ain't no game playing. this is serious business and I agree with Management on this. I don't personally like JFK because of the stupid setup of the Airport and having actually worked there? I know "firsthand" how it looks and is. But? It's not about my personal taste. this is "Rough Dog Business"! and in rough Dog business? you're liable to get Bitten and Badly! If JFK is saving slots? I ask? For Whom? and For What?
 
Judge1310
Posts: 497
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Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:34 pm

codc10 wrote:
floridaflyboy wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
This is just a power play to get more slots due to the NEA soon going to litigation. imo.


Sure could be. And not a bad time to make a play, I suppose. I'm just surprised by their stated timeline that they'd leave JFK by the end of October if they don't get more slots. That's only a month and a half away. I can't imagine any court or government agency moving that quickly.


Slots are allocated based on IATA seasons: northern summer is March-October, winter is October-March. The FAA slot usage exemption for JFK is due to expire at the end of October. Also note the DOJ case against the AA/B6 NEA is going to a bench trial in about 3 weeks.

ScottB wrote:
If the flights are performing as well as hoped, there would be no reason to leave JFK again. Even if United can't pick up more slots quickly to improve frequency, it would still make sense to play the long game and continue to operate the flights if they were performing reasonably well.


Right now, United is using slots sourced from other carriers who have opted out due to FAA-authorized exemptions from usage requirements. These are not United-held slots. When those exemptions expire at the end of S22, the incumbent slot holders are again subject to the same "use-it-or-lose-it" requirements as before. Apparently, those operators wish to return to their prior slot holdings. If the incumbent carrier wants back in at JFK, United has no right to those slots, so they cannot "play the long game and continue to operate the flights," as you say.

I believe there is some ulterior PR motive here, given the AA/B6 dispute with the DOJ and impending B6/NK merger, as United is jockeying to benefit from a slot divestiture. But at its root, there is truth to the notion that United's return to JFK was always temporary subject to the reacquisition of permanent slots, which hasn't happened.

ScottB wrote:
Strategically, United should be on the same page as Delta if they want more slots at JFK. The worst-case scenario for UA with respect to JFK (and EWR as well) would be for AA and B6 to be permitted to continue with the NEA with no concessions. DL is unlikely to be the beneficiary of any potential concessions by AA & B6 since they are the largest carrier at LGA and neck-and-neck with B6 for largest at JFK. Slot/gate concessions at JFK would go to new/limited entrants at the airport, and with only four slot pairs, UA falls into that category. If the NEA is voided by the courts, UA benefits as well: AA's market position in NYC isn't viable, so it's likely they would seek to reduce their slot holdings at JFK and LGA.


So, you get the picture. There is strategic advantage to United publicly painting AA/B6 as anti-consumer and serving as an effective obstacle to competiton. If this was to be an "internal" memorandum, it would not have nearly the wide release (including newswires like Reuters) it's garnered. And there is more to come over the next few weeks. United sees itself as the best-positioned US carrier to benefit from an AA/B6 divestiture at JFK. NK has to take a back seat due to the B6 merger. Southwest doesn't want in; they cut bait at Newark for reasons that would also be huge factors at Kennedy. JFK really isn't a fit for any of the ULCCs. Who's left?

Delta, on the other hand, already has incumbent positions at BOS and JFK/LGA, and doesn't stand to gain slots, so there's no reason for it to take an activist position.

MIflyer12 wrote:
floridaflyboy wrote:

Sure could be. And not a bad time to make a play, I suppose. I'm just surprised by their stated timeline that they'd leave JFK by the end of October if they don't get more slots. That's only a month and a half away. I can't imagine any court or government agency moving that quickly.


This is the 'We tried. They wouldn't let us succeed.' corporate communications cover strategy. I second the suggestion that the downgauging suggests that load factors and yields aren't what they wanted. This might also suggest that people fly UA out of EWR more because they like the convenience of EWR than because they like UA's product(s). That will give the people in HQ something to think on.


It *suggests* it, but you really don't know. Loads are good, yields are mediocre, but that's the story with mostly all transcons right now. There is more to the story than perceived underperformance.

United has always been willing to take on considerable losses if it means rebuilding its JFK franchise, which it views to be a long-term strategic play. Scott Kirby has basically said as much in investor calls, and United absolutely does not want to leave. If it is forced to do so, there will be kicking, screaming, lawsuits and every conceivable measure undertaken to retain service. They will not cut and run at JFK just because a few flights aren't "performing well"... that's the small-ball philosophy that led to previous management closing JFK in the first place. JFK hemorrhaged money early on, in the midst of the pandemic, when United re-entered with 767 service, but the company knew that was going to be the case all along, and was ready to absorb whatever losses came. That's still the case today.

There are more forces at play here, stay tuned.


Omg, THANK YOU, for such an excellent break down and explanation of the various points at play in this situation. UA has said from the very beginning that those slots were temporary and that everything would be done to maintain and eventually increase slot access.

And the aviation climate of the early to mid 2010s are **vastly** different from that in the early 2020s -- to conflate the two is an exercise in futility.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: United Threatens to End JFK Airport Service Without More Flights

Thu Sep 08, 2022 1:24 am

Times sure have changed. It wasn't all that long ago that UA was flying to the likes of CCS, EZE, GRU, HKG, LHR, NRT, SEA and SJU nonstop from JFK - in addition to the obvious LAX and SFO. I guess certain individuals could be blamed for completely abandoning one of the largest and most prestigious airports in the world, but this airline had all kinds of JFK slots and friends in high places before.. Are their friends and allies already all retired now?!?
 
Pinto
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Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:40 am

codc10 wrote:
dfwfanboy wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

Boom and VTOL have nothing to do with it. They are totally posturing for free slots and who wouldn’t do that if it had a chance of working? Delta was a squatter at Love Field for years and it ended up working for them. Don’t hate the player.

Boom and VTOL were just examples of United having cash to buy slots. You're absolutely right that they have plenty of cash besides their investment money.

Delta was fighting eviction from Love Field due to lack of gates. United is choosing to leave JFK since the FAA doesn't want to give them incremental free slots. There doesn't seem to be anything about eviction in the United memo -- "Unfortunately, we have not been successful in gaining additional permanent slots.". It's just that the FAA won't give them new incremental free slots above what they currently got for free.
But, I don't disagree about your overall point, if you can get them for free, why pay? But UA put themselves in a weird place saying they'll leave if they don't get free slots, it's not like they're getting kicked out of JFK.


You’re completely missing the point.

United has the cash to buy slots. They would buy slots if anyone was selling. To date, nobody has been selling. That might change soon, but in the meantime it makes perfect sense for United to make this argument.


In the US airlinew can't buy slots like they can at LHR. Slots are can be leased however they can't be sold. So UA buying slots is out of the question.
 
codc10
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Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:54 am

Pinto wrote:
codc10 wrote:
dfwfanboy wrote:
Boom and VTOL were just examples of United having cash to buy slots. You're absolutely right that they have plenty of cash besides their investment money.

Delta was fighting eviction from Love Field due to lack of gates. United is choosing to leave JFK since the FAA doesn't want to give them incremental free slots. There doesn't seem to be anything about eviction in the United memo -- "Unfortunately, we have not been successful in gaining additional permanent slots.". It's just that the FAA won't give them new incremental free slots above what they currently got for free.
But, I don't disagree about your overall point, if you can get them for free, why pay? But UA put themselves in a weird place saying they'll leave if they don't get free slots, it's not like they're getting kicked out of JFK.


You’re completely missing the point.

United has the cash to buy slots. They would buy slots if anyone was selling. To date, nobody has been selling. That might change soon, but in the meantime it makes perfect sense for United to make this argument.


In the US airlinew can't buy slots like they can at LHR. Slots are can be leased however they can't be sold. So UA buying slots is out of the question.


Fundamentally the transactions are structured as long-term leases, but in some cases with very limited rights of the slotholder to step back in and use the slots. Such an arrangement comes at a premium price. The implication with the term "lease" (such as United's lease of slots to DL at JFK) is the holder can reacquire the ability to use the asset, which is substantially not the case in that example. A shorter term slot lease, or one in which the holder has the option, after a period of time, not to renew, will be less expensive in general. Use the term "sell" is meant to convey essentially permanence, but should not be read to suggest the slots are equivalent to real property.

LHR slot transactions, in practice, have a wrinkle as slots "purchased" are actually traded between entities.
 
HunterATL
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Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:44 am

Pinto wrote:
codc10 wrote:
dfwfanboy wrote:
Boom and VTOL were just examples of United having cash to buy slots. You're absolutely right that they have plenty of cash besides their investment money.

Delta was fighting eviction from Love Field due to lack of gates. United is choosing to leave JFK since the FAA doesn't want to give them incremental free slots. There doesn't seem to be anything about eviction in the United memo -- "Unfortunately, we have not been successful in gaining additional permanent slots.". It's just that the FAA won't give them new incremental free slots above what they currently got for free.
But, I don't disagree about your overall point, if you can get them for free, why pay? But UA put themselves in a weird place saying they'll leave if they don't get free slots, it's not like they're getting kicked out of JFK.


You’re completely missing the point.

United has the cash to buy slots. They would buy slots if anyone was selling. To date, nobody has been selling. That might change soon, but in the meantime it makes perfect sense for United to make this argument.


In the US airlinew can't buy slots like they can at LHR. Slots are can be leased however they can't be sold. So UA buying slots is out of the question.


Airlines can most definitely sell their slots at LGA, JFK, and DCA. How do you think DL got all those LGA slots from US? Federal slots confer property rights and can be bought, sold, leased, used as collateral, etc.
 
dmstorm22
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Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:47 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
BoeingG wrote:
leader1 wrote:

You do realize that EWR was built long before JFK and LGA were.


It's served its purpose.


Oddly enough, there is a world on the other side of the Hudson. If EWR did not exist then PHL would be the preferred choice over JFK for large parts of New Jersey.


Thank you for mentioning this.
I honestly think a.net should just have a standing mega-thread for EWR v JFK v LGA and scrub any discussions of one vs the other in other threads. Admittedly it is somewhat relevant here, but still it gets tiresome to explain over and over again why EWR does have tremendous value.

Forget even the fact that depending on where you are in Manhattan, and time of day, it easily could be quicker to taxi over to EWR than LGA.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: United Threatens to End JFK Airport Service Without More Flights

Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:17 am

If the "defector merger" between AA/B6 is allowed to go through, Delta, not United, has the stronger case for additional JFK slots. They would be the only major airline to compete effectively against the price-undercutting by one of its arch rivals (AA) harnessing the lower-cost of a LCC-hybrid (B6) to do such dirty work! United has Newark, which is definitely within the NYC catchment area as far as route proceedings/divestitures are concerned. More JFK for United has to coincide with more room at Newark for others.
 
jfk777
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Re: United Threatens to End JFK Airport Service Without More Flights

Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:44 am

United is just bitter they abandoned their transcon flights to LAX & SFO in 2015 and is crying to the FAA. They didn't want duplicative LAX and SFO flights to Newark and JFK at the time so they moved the JFK flights to EWR.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:33 am

HunterATL wrote:
Pinto wrote:
codc10 wrote:

You’re completely missing the point.

United has the cash to buy slots. They would buy slots if anyone was selling. To date, nobody has been selling. That might change soon, but in the meantime it makes perfect sense for United to make this argument.


In the US airlinew can't buy slots like they can at LHR. Slots are can be leased however they can't be sold. So UA buying slots is out of the question.


Airlines can most definitely sell their slots at LGA, JFK, and DCA. How do you think DL got all those LGA slots from US? Federal slots confer property rights and can be bought, sold, leased, used as collateral, etc.


That was a “slot swap” with Delta giving US a number (albeit not equal number) of DCA slots, which is what solidified US Airways’ dominance of DCA. It’s worth noting that transaction also came with a number of divestures to get it past DOJ.
 
BoeingG
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Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Thu Sep 08, 2022 12:44 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
BoeingG wrote:
leader1 wrote:

You do realize that EWR was built long before JFK and LGA were.


It's served its purpose.


Oddly enough, there is a world on the other side of the Hudson. If EWR did not exist then PHL would be the preferred choice over JFK for large parts of New Jersey.


I don't see an issue. Raze EWR and provide HSR service to Newark. And the latter goes for JFK as well.
 
codc10
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Re: United Threatens to End JFK Airport Service Without More Flights

Thu Sep 08, 2022 1:31 pm

jfk777 wrote:
United is just bitter they abandoned their transcon flights to LAX & SFO in 2015 and is crying to the FAA. They didn't want duplicative LAX and SFO flights to Newark and JFK at the time so they moved the JFK flights to EWR.


From about the time of the merger onward, EWR-LAX/SFO outperformed JFK-LAX/SFO for United. Not terribly surprising for hub-hub markets. UA leadership in 2015 took a very narrow view and looked at JFK as a standalone entity, considering its P&L in a vacuum without regard to the network effect of a JFK presence in the key transcon markets. I'm sure some middle manager, in the midst of a "cut costs at all costs" ethos that was pervasive at United during the period, looked at United's facility leases at JFK, high labor costs, relatively low passenger revenue generation and concluded UA was better off closing JFK and consolidating operations at EWR. At the same time, UA made a bet that West Coast accounts would remain exclusive and follow to EWR; they did not. Here we are.

I am not sure why it's so hard to fathom that an entirely new management team (coming from a carrier that valued a JFK transcon presence, and probably benefit from United's departure from the market) might adopt a different strategy than their failed predecessors?
 
IADCA
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Re: United Threatens to End JFK Airport Service Without More Flights

Thu Sep 08, 2022 1:39 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
If the "defector merger" between AA/B6 is allowed to go through, Delta, not United, has the stronger case for additional JFK slots. They would be the only major airline to compete effectively against the price-undercutting by one of its arch rivals (AA) harnessing the lower-cost of a LCC-hybrid (B6) to do such dirty work! United has Newark, which is definitely within the NYC catchment area as far as route proceedings/divestitures are concerned. More JFK for United has to coincide with more room at Newark for others.


No. DL would not have the stronger case for additional slots. In fact, they would have the worst case for additional slots of any US carrier. They already have a 30%-ish market share at JFK. Adding to that would massively increase the HHI (the main index used to judge market concentration) in a way that adding to any other competitor's portfolio would not. Adding to DL's share would effectively create an unbreakable duopoly between AA/B6 and DL. What you have posited is the diametric opposite of how antitrust agencies and courts view competition.

Further, the inclusion of Newark in the geographic market is not how the agencies and courts - and antitrust law in general - view geographic markets for airline service in New York.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: United Threatens to End JFK Airport Service Without More Flights

Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:01 pm

IADCA wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
If the "defector merger" between AA/B6 is allowed to go through, Delta, not United, has the stronger case for additional JFK slots. They would be the only major airline to compete effectively against the price-undercutting by one of its arch rivals (AA) harnessing the lower-cost of a LCC-hybrid (B6) to do such dirty work! United has Newark, which is definitely within the NYC catchment area as far as route proceedings/divestitures are concerned. More JFK for United has to coincide with more room at Newark for others.


No. DL would not have the stronger case for additional slots. In fact, they would have the worst case for additional slots of any US carrier. They already have a 30%-ish market share at JFK. Adding to that would massively increase the HHI (the main index used to judge market concentration) in a way that adding to any other competitor's portfolio would not. Adding to DL's share would effectively create an unbreakable duopoly between AA/B6 and DL. What you have posited is the diametric opposite of how antitrust agencies and courts view competition.

Further, the inclusion of Newark in the geographic market is not how the agencies and courts - and antitrust law in general - view geographic markets for airline service in New York.


I am not disagreeing. However, when you have a large legacy with adequate NYC service history as AA has instead opt to utilize a lower cost-model airline to do its bidding, the dynamic changes. Delta may very well hold their own, but it won't be without pressure on costs as product pricing pressure will be applied downward to meet B6's take on a living NY wage; This gives AA/B6 a distinct advantage that should be factored in (but won't be). In addition, at this present time, I highly doubt Delta can grow EWR due to capacity constraints there. If United wants in on JFK, Newark needs to first level the playing field for competitive responses. I am a bit skeptical that Newark/United was never compared to JFK (AA/DL) in airline route case awards.
 
PITFlyer330
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United suspending JFK

Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:18 pm

Just in https://twitter.com/benmutzabaugh/statu ... slt4gsEvVg

Last JFK flight end of October when united loses its slots

JFK Employees can move to nearby airports
 
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DL757NYC
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United Ending Service At JFK

Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:00 pm

Apparently this was was just announced 25 mins ago

https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/u ... 97.article
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:02 pm

BoeingG wrote:
I don't see an issue. Raze EWR and provide HSR service to Newark. And the latter goes for JFK as well.


That isn't happening in our lifetimes.
 
B6SpiritofEWR
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Re: United Ending Service At JFK

Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:27 pm

I mean I can’t really blame them. The only thing that they probably could have done without paying an arm and a leg for a ton of slots would have been to give up some EWR real estate but we know they didn’t want to do that.
 
sfojvjets
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Re: United Ending Service At JFK

Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:41 pm

I wonder if this could be used as a reason against the NEA, whose Court proceedings are currently ongoing... Because UA was not able to gain enough slots organically to be competitive (without paying their way)–meanwhile B6 plans on increasing JFK service to 200+ flights/day, from what I remember.

Should be interesting to see how this announcement affects that, if at all, and whether UA purposefully announced this during the Court proceedings.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: United Ending Service At JFK

Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:48 pm

sfojvjets wrote:
I wonder if this could be used as a reason against the NEA, whose Court proceedings are currently ongoing... Because UA was not able to gain enough slots organically to be competitive (without paying their way)–meanwhile B6 plans on increasing JFK service to 200+ flights/day, from what I remember.

Should be interesting to see how this announcement affects that, if at all, and whether UA purposefully announced this during the Court proceedings.


United would no doubt make sure they’re at the front of the line for slot divestures, if any.

This announcement could be somewhat strategic. They’re once again a ‘new entrant’, and therefore prioritized for divested slots, wheras if they hung around with 1 or 2 flights per day then they wouldn’t be.
 
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Chasensfo
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Re: United Ending Service At JFK

Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:08 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
This announcement could be somewhat strategic. They’re once again a ‘new entrant’, and therefore prioritized for divested slots, wheras if they hung around with 1 or 2 flights per day then they wouldn’t be.

I'd bet this is exactly it, knowing UA. Lol.
 
SurlyBonds
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Re: United Threatens to End JFK Airport Service Without More Flights

Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:53 pm

Um, the article expressly says that United is "temporarily" ending service to JFK, adding, "United says it has been having 'constructive' discussions with the Federal Aviation Administration about additional slots at JFK that would enable it to return."
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Threatens to End JFK Airport Service Without More Flights

Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:22 pm

SurlyBonds wrote:
Um, the article expressly says that United is "temporarily" ending service to JFK, adding, "United says it has been having 'constructive' discussions with the Federal Aviation Administration about additional slots at JFK that would enable it to return."


That's just face-saving happy spin. UA is not a disadvantaged new entrant in NYC. If it wants JFK slots it can buy them.
 
hbernal1
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Re: United Ending Service At JFK

Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:39 pm

B6SpiritofEWR wrote:
I mean I can’t really blame them. The only thing that they probably could have done without paying an arm and a leg for a ton of slots would have been to give up some EWR real estate but we know they didn’t want to do that.

Yep... just not worth it. And UA can't really start operating the slots "leased" out to DL anytime soon either. So the best play for now is to acquiesce: lose the slots and leave.
 
incitatus
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Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:09 am

Before United pulled out of JFK, its operation was limping along. The only truly strong route it had was to SFO. It was not a mistake to pull out. It was a mistake to try again with such a strong hub down the road. Smisek was right.
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:21 am

I've read varying articles that report Delta leased slots from United in a long-term agreement, while other articles say that United sold them to Delta. Does anyone have the specifics on whether they were either leased or sold?
 
jfk777
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Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:52 am

If United wants JFK slots so badly they should trade some of their Chicago O'Hare slots. Unlikely to happen but stranger things have happened.

Maybe Delta would give up a few precious JFK slots for slots at an airport UA has a ton of whose slots are more valuable than JFK, Heathrow. This could happen many ways if the parties get creative.
 
NYCVIE
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Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:13 am

jfk777 wrote:
If United wants JFK slots so badly they should trade some of their Chicago O'Hare slots. Unlikely to happen but stranger things have happened.

Maybe Delta would give up a few precious JFK slots for slots at an airport UA has a ton of whose slots are more valuable than JFK, Heathrow. This could happen many ways if the parties get creative.


Is ORD even slot controlled??

If it is how would ORD slots be more valuable than JFK or LHR(!!) slots? For DL of all players?
 
IND96
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Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:34 am

I can't help but wonder if attempting JFK-LAX was a bit of a vanity project or "keeping up with the Joneses". Obviously, I am not behind the scenes at UA and don't know the specifics of the business case for this route, but it certainly seems like it was doomed from the beginning with the important high-yield traffic opting for the vastly superior product on AA, B6, and DL. However, I'm shocked JFK-SFO couldn't be made to work just based on it being a UA hub with a large FF base, not to mention the one step connectivity to many small or midsize cities on the Pacific coast that AA definitely can't offer and DL sort of offers. I'd be curious to see if UA is leaking FFs from SFO on other premium-heavy routes, or if they simply self-cannibalize JFK too much with the EWR hub and a solid operation at LGA as well.

I wonder if UA ever considered JFK-IAH or even DEN - perhaps it would have stimulated some demand to provide a link to their Central/South America gateway from JFK.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:23 am

jfk777 wrote:
If United wants JFK slots so badly they should trade some of their Chicago O'Hare slots. Unlikely to happen but stranger things have happened.

Maybe Delta would give up a few precious JFK slots for slots at an airport UA has a ton of whose slots are more valuable than JFK, Heathrow. This could happen many ways if the parties get creative.


What? ORD doesn't have slots. lolz
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5663
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:15 am

BoeingG wrote:
EWR was a mistake. Too many conflicts with other area traffic. It should be leveled and JFK expanded into Jamaica Bay towhat in HEALL was I thinking form one mega airport (LGA can remain to serve domestic travel).

the EWR move came right after the UA CO merger with CO's management team in place. CO was big into EWR and at the time? It wasn't that bad of an . In retrospect? It might have looked bad NOW? But back then? It did make business sense since they were NOT going to end EWR flying in favor of JFK. Heck! All of us have made decisions that later we said "What in HELL was I thinking of"? Heck! I'm glad United didn't close the IAD hub as that was also what the CO management group wanted to do also. They just weren't in command long enough to do it! Right after the merger? they proposed all kinds of stuff. moving WHQ to Houston, Closing the SFO Maintenance base. Selling off the Turbine shop and Hangars because they didn't do overhauls. the list was LONG. And? Being the senior group from United? Didn't seem to matter to them. thanbk goodness they only got to mess up at JFK, because Smisek wasn't around long enough to do much more damage. I'm surprised they wound up buying so many more A-319's with the pilots agreeing to fly the shorter hops to replace a lot of UAX flying. Something I never thought I would see. So? United S amaking some changes. whether it all works out? I sure hope so. I am proud to have for United, Retired from United,and proud to fly United.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5663
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:31 am

IND96 wrote:
I can't help but wonder if attempting JFK-LAX was a bit of a vanity project or "keeping up with the Joneses". Obviously, I am not behind the scenes at UA and don't know the specifics of the business case for this route, but it certainly seems like it was doomed from the beginning with the important high-yield traffic opting for the vastly superior product on AA, B6, and DL. However, I'm shocked JFK-SFO couldn't be made to work just based on it being a UA hub with a large FF base, not to mention the one step connectivity to many small or midsize cities on the Pacific coast that AA definitely can't offer and DL sort of offers. I'd be curious to see if UA is leaking FFs from SFO on other premium-heavy routes, or if they simply self-cannibalize JFK too much with the EWR hub and a solid operation at LGA as well.

I wonder if UA ever considered JFK-IAH or even DEN - perhaps it would have stimulated some demand to provide a link to their Central/South America gateway from JFK.

Once the Management team cycled away from CO centric and United got managers who were former AA, NW, and Delta. they saw things a LOT differently than the previous management group and they seemed to manage with an attitude of we're going in to "Kick Butt and take names" They did well enough that American wanted one of the senior execs to leave United and return to American. And I was actually surprised when he refused. So? United can thank the other airlines for letting them go because they now manage like a bunch of PIRATES. And? I'm happy they got an "Attitude" because even before bankruptcy United management was pretty "Wimpy"
And now they're more like Marines. or Seals.. Aggresive!
 
jfk777
Posts: 7732
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:19 am

NYCVIE wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
If United wants JFK slots so badly they should trade some of their Chicago O'Hare slots. Unlikely to happen but stranger things have happened.

Maybe Delta would give up a few precious JFK slots for slots at an airport UA has a ton of whose slots are more valuable than JFK, Heathrow. This could happen many ways if the parties get creative.


Is ORD even slot controlled??

If it is how would ORD slots be more valuable than JFK or LHR(!!) slots? For DL of all players?


Its not a question of one ORD slot being equal to one LHR slot. Its about what slots United has, ORD is their biggest hub, and what they want, JFK slots.
 
User avatar
bluefltspecial
Posts: 596
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:27 pm

Re: United Threatens to End JFK Airport Service Without More Flights

Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:58 pm

flybry wrote:
When will Delta’s lease of United’s slots expire at JFK? Won’t United get a bunch of JFK slots back when the lease expires for Delta using them?


I'm curious to know about this, too.

We're these the slot from when UA abandoned JFK? When do does the agreement end?
 
wjcandee
Posts: 11705
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:37 pm

flyfresno wrote:
I'd almost say EWR should stay and LGA should go. If there was a PVG-type maglev train from JFK to Manhattan (or even just JFK-Atlantic Terminal or JFK-Long Island City), LGA's location would become significantly less advantageous.


Yeah, no. The catchment area for LGA covers part of Connecticut, Westchester County, and all of long island,, as well as boroughs other than manhattan,, like Querns and the Bronx. Manhattan traffic comes from all over manhattan, and having to make your way to some maglev station somewhere in Manhattan only to go back in the other direction to JFK makes little sense. This is why helicopters also aren't that popular and never were, because you could be driving towards the airport while you're fighting traffic over to the heliport. Don't get me wrong, I've taken the helicopter to JFK many times, and it was always cool, but not practical and not significantly better than a nice car ride.
 
lpdal
Posts: 2001
Joined: Sat Mar 24, 2012 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:15 am

They’ve had so many comebacks at JFK that nobody can keep up.

They’ll be back.
 
Italianflyer
Posts: 867
Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:06 pm

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:45 pm

Does anyone know if JFK-LAX/SFO was even break-even, much less profitable, for UA?? Even if the front end was full on a daily basis with full fare customers (which I doubt) I can't see how 4 flights a day could cover the high operating costs associated with JFK and a handful of tenured mainline ground staff.

It seems to me that stepping back & letting AA, DL & B6 brawl it out (and bleed $$) may be a blessing in disguise. Revisit the viability of having a market presence after the dust settles.
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1766
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:48 pm

Italianflyer wrote:
Does anyone know if JFK-LAX/SFO was even break-even, much less profitable, for UA?? Even if the front end was full on a daily basis with full fare customers (which I doubt) I can't see how 4 flights a day could cover the high operating costs associated with JFK and a handful of tenured mainline ground staff.

It seems to me that stepping back & letting AA, DL & B6 brawl it out (and bleed $$) may be a blessing in disguise. Revisit the viability of having a market presence after the dust settles.


It sounded like important West Coast FFers were really upset with the loss of access to JFK - to be sure, EWR is not going to be a great option for those headed to Brooklyn or the Hamptons. It's one thing to cut service to COS, DTW, MSN and STL (especially when those places can still be reached via other hubs); it's quite another to lose a primary gateway not just to New York City itself but also extensive connectivity beyond. After all, JFK hosts far more foreign flag carriers, Star Alliance and otherwise, than EWR does.

When did AS stop flying LAX-JFK? Pretty crazy to think that this popular route is now down to just AA, B6 and DL.
 
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mga707
Posts: 697
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Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:50 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
When did AS stop flying LAX-JFK? Pretty crazy to think that this popular route is now down to just AA, B6 and DL.


Reminds me of the period from 1953, when the DC-7 and L-1049G made nonstop both ways coast-to-coast service possible, until the dawn of deregulation at the end of 1978, when the American, TWA, and United were the carriers on this prestige route.
Once deregulation began, I think Pan Am, finally allowed to carry domestic passengers in the 'lower 48', and Eastern were the first two to challenge the long-running 'three-opoly' on the route.
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 664
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:05 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
Italianflyer wrote:
Does anyone know if JFK-LAX/SFO was even break-even, much less profitable, for UA?? Even if the front end was full on a daily basis with full fare customers (which I doubt) I can't see how 4 flights a day could cover the high operating costs associated with JFK and a handful of tenured mainline ground staff.

It seems to me that stepping back & letting AA, DL & B6 brawl it out (and bleed $$) may be a blessing in disguise. Revisit the viability of having a market presence after the dust settles.


It sounded like important West Coast FFers were really upset with the loss of access to JFK - to be sure, EWR is not going to be a great option for those headed to Brooklyn or the Hamptons. It's one thing to cut service to COS, DTW, MSN and STL (especially when those places can still be reached via other hubs); it's quite another to lose a primary gateway not just to New York City itself but also extensive connectivity beyond. After all, JFK hosts far more foreign flag carriers, Star Alliance and otherwise, than EWR does.

When did AS stop flying LAX-JFK? Pretty crazy to think that this popular route is now down to just AA, B6 and DL.


I don’t know about these theories.

United isn’t worried about those going to the Hamptons or Brooklyn. The business dollars are in Manhattan and North Jersey. For that, Newark is a fairly effective substitute.

As far as Europe and Star connectivity, United offers service to all of the major European business and leisure destinations and then some through Newark and Dulles. There’s little a west coast United loyal can’t do through Newark or one of United’s other hubs to Europe or any Star connection that can be done through JFK.

While I think it was unwise for United to give up their slots at JFK, not having service there isn’t the end of the world. With the newer aircraft and megahubs that connect the western and interior US nonstop to the world, not to mention European alliance hubs on the other side of the pond from which one can go to almost anywhere, JFK just isn't as important as it was in the past.
 
jplatts
Posts: 6385
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:07 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
It's one thing to cut service to COS, DTW, MSN and STL (especially when those places can still be reached via other hubs); it's quite another to lose a primary gateway not just to New York City itself but also extensive connectivity beyond. After all, JFK hosts far more foreign flag carriers, Star Alliance and otherwise, than EWR does.


Of the Star Alliance carriers serving the NYC market:
  • UA will still be serving EWR, LGA, and HPN in the NYC metro area after UA pulls out of JFK
  • AC serves EWR and LGA
  • AI, OS, LO, LH, SQ, LX, TP, and TK serve both EWR and JFK
  • EWR is the only airport in the NYC metro area that is served by SK
  • JFK is the only airport in the NYC metro area that is served by NZ, NH, OZ, AV, LR, 2K, TA, SN, CM, MS, and BR

UA already has nonstop service out of EWR on its own metal to BOG/BRU/PTY/SJO/NRT.

LAX/SFO will also still have 1-stop connectivity onto MS IAD-CAI flights from UA LAX/SFO-IAD flights after UA pulls out of JFK.

The New England region also still has connectivity to Asia, Oceania, and Latin America on Star Alliance through other UA and AC hubs, even though some of the connections to Asia/Oceania/Latin America from New England on Star Alliance require 2 or more connections.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 5751
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:55 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
Italianflyer wrote:
Does anyone know if JFK-LAX/SFO was even break-even, much less profitable, for UA?? Even if the front end was full on a daily basis with full fare customers (which I doubt) I can't see how 4 flights a day could cover the high operating costs associated with JFK and a handful of tenured mainline ground staff.

It seems to me that stepping back & letting AA, DL & B6 brawl it out (and bleed $$) may be a blessing in disguise. Revisit the viability of having a market presence after the dust settles.


It sounded like important West Coast FFers were really upset with the loss of access to JFK - to be sure, EWR is not going to be a great option for those headed to Brooklyn or the Hamptons. It's one thing to cut service to COS, DTW, MSN and STL (especially when those places can still be reached via other hubs); it's quite another to lose a primary gateway not just to New York City itself but also extensive connectivity beyond. After all, JFK hosts far more foreign flag carriers, Star Alliance and otherwise, than EWR does.

When did AS stop flying LAX-JFK? Pretty crazy to think that this popular route is now down to just AA, B6 and DL.


AS dropped LAX from JFK in October 2021. The schedule from JFK is now SEA, SFO, SAN, and PDX.
 
WA707atMSP
Posts: 2302
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:16 pm

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:12 pm

mga707 wrote:
SurfandSnow wrote:
When did AS stop flying LAX-JFK? Pretty crazy to think that this popular route is now down to just AA, B6 and DL.


Reminds me of the period from 1953, when the DC-7 and L-1049G made nonstop both ways coast-to-coast service possible, until the dawn of deregulation at the end of 1978, when the American, TWA, and United were the carriers on this prestige route.
Once deregulation began, I think Pan Am, finally allowed to carry domestic passengers in the 'lower 48', and Eastern were the first two to challenge the long-running 'three-opoly' on the route.


World and Capitol also added flights from LAX to New York City right after deregulation.

World had wanted to offer low fare transcontinental flights for many years. In the mid 1970s, when AA proposed low "Super Saver" fares on transcontinental routes, World opposed AA's plans, because World knew most passengers would choose AA over World.
 
trueblew
Posts: 488
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:40 pm

codc10 wrote:
dfwfanboy wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

Boom and VTOL have nothing to do with it. They are totally posturing for free slots and who wouldn’t do that if it had a chance of working? Delta was a squatter at Love Field for years and it ended up working for them. Don’t hate the player.

Boom and VTOL were just examples of United having cash to buy slots. You're absolutely right that they have plenty of cash besides their investment money.

Delta was fighting eviction from Love Field due to lack of gates. United is choosing to leave JFK since the FAA doesn't want to give them incremental free slots. There doesn't seem to be anything about eviction in the United memo -- "Unfortunately, we have not been successful in gaining additional permanent slots.". It's just that the FAA won't give them new incremental free slots above what they currently got for free.
But, I don't disagree about your overall point, if you can get them for free, why pay? But UA put themselves in a weird place saying they'll leave if they don't get free slots, it's not like they're getting kicked out of JFK.


You’re completely missing the point.

United has the cash to buy slots. They would buy slots if anyone was selling. To date, nobody has been selling. That might change soon, but in the meantime it makes perfect sense for United to make this argument.


It makes perfect sense?

In summary:

~United decide not to serve JFK anymore and lease their slots to Delta.
~United decide they made the wrong decision and want to return to JFK.
~United say they deserve B6/AA slots because they leased theirs to Delta and can't use them.

This doesn't make perfect sense. If new slots become available United are welcome to acquire them; however, United are not entitled to other airlines' slots because they decided to lease off their own and now want slots again.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 7233
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Updated: United ends JFK service October 2022

Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:29 pm

jfk777 wrote:
NYCVIE wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
If United wants JFK slots so badly they should trade some of their Chicago O'Hare slots. Unlikely to happen but stranger things have happened.

Maybe Delta would give up a few precious JFK slots for slots at an airport UA has a ton of whose slots are more valuable than JFK, Heathrow. This could happen many ways if the parties get creative.


Is ORD even slot controlled??

If it is how would ORD slots be more valuable than JFK or LHR(!!) slots? For DL of all players?


Its not a question of one ORD slot being equal to one LHR slot. Its about what slots United has, ORD is their biggest hub, and what they want, JFK slots.


ORD isn’t slot controlled so that isn’t a valid argument.
 
codc10
Posts: 3622
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:49 pm

trueblew wrote:
codc10 wrote:
dfwfanboy wrote:
Boom and VTOL were just examples of United having cash to buy slots. You're absolutely right that they have plenty of cash besides their investment money.

Delta was fighting eviction from Love Field due to lack of gates. United is choosing to leave JFK since the FAA doesn't want to give them incremental free slots. There doesn't seem to be anything about eviction in the United memo -- "Unfortunately, we have not been successful in gaining additional permanent slots.". It's just that the FAA won't give them new incremental free slots above what they currently got for free.
But, I don't disagree about your overall point, if you can get them for free, why pay? But UA put themselves in a weird place saying they'll leave if they don't get free slots, it's not like they're getting kicked out of JFK.


You’re completely missing the point.

United has the cash to buy slots. They would buy slots if anyone was selling. To date, nobody has been selling. That might change soon, but in the meantime it makes perfect sense for United to make this argument.


It makes perfect sense?

In summary:

~United decide not to serve JFK anymore and lease their slots to Delta.
~United decide they made the wrong decision and want to return to JFK.
~United say they deserve B6/AA slots because they leased theirs to Delta and can't use them.

This doesn't make perfect sense. If new slots become available United are welcome to acquire them; however, United are not entitled to other airlines' slots because they decided to lease off their own and now want slots again.


Looks like you’ve also missed the point… United certainly isn’t entitled to anything, and this is part of a public campaign (with the backdrop of the NEA trial) to attempt to leverage JFK slots on the basis of “encouraging competition”. It might not work, and to date it hasn’t, but United doesn’t have many options.
 
onwFan
Posts: 874
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:59 pm

trueblew wrote:
codc10 wrote:
dfwfanboy wrote:
Boom and VTOL were just examples of United having cash to buy slots. You're absolutely right that they have plenty of cash besides their investment money.

Delta was fighting eviction from Love Field due to lack of gates. United is choosing to leave JFK since the FAA doesn't want to give them incremental free slots. There doesn't seem to be anything about eviction in the United memo -- "Unfortunately, we have not been successful in gaining additional permanent slots.". It's just that the FAA won't give them new incremental free slots above what they currently got for free.
But, I don't disagree about your overall point, if you can get them for free, why pay? But UA put themselves in a weird place saying they'll leave if they don't get free slots, it's not like they're getting kicked out of JFK.


You’re completely missing the point.

United has the cash to buy slots. They would buy slots if anyone was selling. To date, nobody has been selling. That might change soon, but in the meantime it makes perfect sense for United to make this argument.


It makes perfect sense?

In summary:

~United decide not to serve JFK anymore and lease their slots to Delta.
~United decide they made the wrong decision and want to return to JFK.
~United say they deserve B6/AA slots because they leased theirs to Delta and can't use them.

This doesn't make perfect sense. If new slots become available United are welcome to acquire them; however, United are not entitled to other airlines' slots because they decided to lease off their own and now want slots again.

That is a good point. Along the same lines, it also makes no sense to count UA as a ‘new entrant’.
 
dfwfanboy
Posts: 158
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:41 pm

Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:41 pm

codc10 wrote:
trueblew wrote:
codc10 wrote:

You’re completely missing the point.

United has the cash to buy slots. They would buy slots if anyone was selling. To date, nobody has been selling. That might change soon, but in the meantime it makes perfect sense for United to make this argument.


It makes perfect sense?

In summary:

~United decide not to serve JFK anymore and lease their slots to Delta.
~United decide they made the wrong decision and want to return to JFK.
~United say they deserve B6/AA slots because they leased theirs to Delta and can't use them.

This doesn't make perfect sense. If new slots become available United are welcome to acquire them; however, United are not entitled to other airlines' slots because they decided to lease off their own and now want slots again.


Looks like you’ve also missed the point… United certainly isn’t entitled to anything, and this is part of a public campaign (with the backdrop of the NEA trial) to attempt to leverage JFK slots on the basis of “encouraging competition”. It might not work, and to date it hasn’t, but United doesn’t have many options.

United has plenty of options but is choosing not to use them.

At least, Two new carriers have come to JFK with purchased slots during United’s “search” and united has valuable slots and gates elsewhere that are easily tradable for jfk slots. I don’t think United should trade for jfk slots when they have the only real hub in NYC, but it’s a bit simple to say United doesn’t have options. They do.
 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 3225
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: United Considering Leaving JFK Again

Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:16 pm

flyfresno wrote:
BoeingG wrote:
EWR was a mistake. Too many conflicts with other area traffic. It should be leveled and JFK expanded into Jamaica Bay to form one mega airport (LGA can remain to serve domestic travel).


I'd almost say EWR should stay and LGA should go. If there was a PVG-type maglev train from JFK to Manhattan (or even just JFK-Atlantic Terminal or JFK-Long Island City), LGA's location would become significantly less advantageous.


There's no need for a maglev. This physical distance isn't that far. What's needed is a train using existing conventional tracks with a terminal at JFK so passengers can board with all their baggage and then go nonstop to Penn Station. I think it was a waste of money to build new terminals at LGA when it still doesn't have one ride connectivity to Manhattan. What really needs to happen is to expand HPN to be another NYC airport and connect it with nonstop and local commuter trains to Penn Station. Without transit connections, an expanded HPN would just be another Mirabel. LGA could have been sold for lots of money to real estate developers.

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