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scbriml
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:15 am

CALTECH wrote:
All you Russia bashers are hilarious, you act like Russia is incapable of producing anything.
IL-96-300 proves you deniers wrong, might take them a few years but they can build new aircraft.
"features supercritical wings fitted with winglets, a glass cockpit, and a fly-by-wire control system. The basic Il-96-300 is equipped with modern Russian avionics integrating six multi-function colour LCD displays, inertial and satellite navigation systems, and a Traffic Collision Avoidance System (including mode "S")."


Today, reality is somewhere between “Russia is brilliant” and “Russia is rubbish”, but closer to the latter IMHO.

All the Il-96 proves is that Russia can build an airliner that nobody wants or operates (excepting the Russian Government and Cuba). Let’s not forget it was grounded for using uncertified or unlicensed parts. First flight in 1988 and just 30 delivered, hardly a great example of Russian aerospace capability.
 
2175301
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:12 pm

kjeld0d wrote:
Must be planning to replace with paper airplanes.


Russia is a lot smarter and more capable than that.

It would not surprise me to see a wood frame and canvas small prop driven passenger aircraft (say seating 6-10). That would be fairly easy to do and Russia most certainly has the capability for that.

Of course, they might upgrade the skin to fiberglass on a wood frame. But, I think you get the idea.

As for Russia producing even modest quantities of a passenger jet in the size range of the A320 series or B737 series. I just don't see it. Their manufacturing base for many things (electronics, hydraulics, brakes, etc.) was largely dismantled because 'western' parts were far cheaper. It would likely take most of a decade to rebuild just the mechanical part of that manufacturing base, and likely 15 - 20 years to rebuild a reasonable microchip manufacturing base again.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:05 pm

argentinevol98 wrote:
CALTECH wrote:
All you Russia bashers are hilarious, you act like Russia is incapable of producing anything.
IL-96-300 proves you deniers wrong, might take them a few years but they can build new aircraft.


Does it? An aircraft that debuted 30 years ago yet still needs a 3-person flight crew? (all Western widebodies debuted in the decade+ before the the Il-96 already had two-person flight crews). Of which Russia has managed to build only 30 of? 1 per year production rate. They managed to sell it to exactly 1 foreign customer, an airline owned by a state which purchased the aircraft solely due to political reasons.


They don't need to worry about pilot counts - they can draft pilots. They don't need to worry about fuel efficiency. They don't need to worry (not too much) about safety. They don't need to worry about exporting jets. they don't need to compete with Western jets. Autocrats with money and time get what they want. Sometimes they demand - and get - an entirely new capital city hundreds of miles away. They can build an industrial city of a million people in the middle of Siberia a thousand miles from anywhere. They work to an entirely different set of rules -- and they know that.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:05 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
argentinevol98 wrote:
CALTECH wrote:
All you Russia bashers are hilarious, you act like Russia is incapable of producing anything.
IL-96-300 proves you deniers wrong, might take them a few years but they can build new aircraft.


Does it? An aircraft that debuted 30 years ago yet still needs a 3-person flight crew? (all Western widebodies debuted in the decade+ before the the Il-96 already had two-person flight crews). Of which Russia has managed to build only 30 of? 1 per year production rate. They managed to sell it to exactly 1 foreign customer, an airline owned by a state which purchased the aircraft solely due to political reasons.


They don't need to worry about pilot counts - they can draft pilots. They don't need to worry about fuel efficiency. They don't need to worry (not too much) about safety. They don't need to worry about exporting jets. they don't need to compete with Western jets. Autocrats with money and time get what they want. Sometimes they demand - and get - an entirely new capital city hundreds of miles away. They can build an industrial city of a million people in the middle of Siberia a thousand miles from anywhere. They work to an entirely different set of rules -- and they know that.

This is why autocrats often break an economy. Russia only has a population of 146 million people. To support what they did pre-invasion, they will have to become more efficient. In this thread others have already posted how Russia must sell oil at a discount and there are not enough tankers to make up for the pipelines.

So now Russia must accelerate the development. When competing against the rest of the world, Russia will be less efficient in air transport. That means businesses will be less efficient. What eventually drove the USSR into bankruptcy.


Link on population
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:10 pm

One of the bigger successes for Russian aircraft - the SSJ-100 hasn't been exactly stellar. It's being Russified to source the parts not in the west. Can a better example be noted, I am unaware. It has already 3 hull losses in 2 million flight hours and 172 built.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Superjet_100
 
dcajet
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:37 pm

I wonder how does Russia plan to pay for all the expenses that pretty much restarting its airliner production will cost. While not exactly a poor country, Russia is not swimming in cash. Isolated from 75% of the world's economy, bleeding US$1B (yes, billion) every 2 days Putin's imperial delusions go on in Ukraine, it is looking at a financial abyss in the not too distant future. Yes, the oil and gas are there, but with the rest of the world moving away from them, how many more decades can Russia expect to use them as an ATM? We bankrupted the USSR in the 80s, coupled with a political system that was exhausted. The same will happen to Putin's regime eventually once they are broke or the oligarchs that support him stop doing so, tired of living in a cage, sanctioned up to their eyeballs.

Let's not forget that the stone age ended not because we ran out of stones. Technology had moved on.
 
744SPX
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:48 am

Russia (and China's) biggest problem is gas turbine technology. To quote a P&W engineer from a few years back: "The Russian's are 20 years ahead of us in liquid fueled rocket engines and we are 20 years ahead of them in gas turbines" Fast forward to the SpaceX Raptor and we have caught up to and surpassed the Russian's best LP rocket engine, the magnificent RD-270 (from 1970) and are still 20 years ahead of them and the Chinese in gas turbines.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:23 am

Sancho99504 wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
They will simply reverse engineer the planes they seized.

They should ask their friends in China how well that's going for the ARJ-717(Douglas frame with what appears to be a CRJ wing and E75 engines) or the C919-320. The Chinese are struggling mightily with both programs and the Russians will too.

the Russians can already build engines. but they can't reverse engineer everything. and unfortunately? Many components come from the West or the USA that cannot be copied in either China or Russia. and I predict the Tech flow might even shift to somewhere like India if they get too strident.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:25 am

dcajet wrote:
I wonder how does Russia plan to pay for all the expenses that pretty much restarting its airliner production will cost. While not exactly a poor country, Russia is not swimming in cash. Isolated from 75% of the world's economy, bleeding US$1B (yes, billion) every 2 days Putin's imperial delusions go on in Ukraine, it is looking at a financial abyss in the not too distant future. Yes, the oil and gas are there, but with the rest of the world moving away from them, how many more decades can Russia expect to use them as an ATM? We bankrupted the USSR in the 80s, coupled with a political system that was exhausted. The same will happen to Putin's regime eventually once they are broke or the oligarchs that support him stop doing so, tired of living in a cage, sanctioned up to their eyeballs.

Let's not forget that the stone age ended not because we ran out of stones. Technology had moved on.

is Russia Bleeding $2B ? Or? Just not taking it IN?
 
dcajet
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:36 am

strfyr51 wrote:
dcajet wrote:
I wonder how does Russia plan to pay for all the expenses that pretty much restarting its airliner production will cost. While not exactly a poor country, Russia is not swimming in cash. Isolated from 75% of the world's economy, bleeding US$1B (yes, billion) every 2 days Putin's imperial delusions go on in Ukraine, it is looking at a financial abyss in the not too distant future. Yes, the oil and gas are there, but with the rest of the world moving away from them, how many more decades can Russia expect to use them as an ATM? We bankrupted the USSR in the 80s, coupled with a political system that was exhausted. The same will happen to Putin's regime eventually once they are broke or the oligarchs that support him stop doing so, tired of living in a cage, sanctioned up to their eyeballs.

Let's not forget that the stone age ended not because we ran out of stones. Technology had moved on.

is Russia Bleeding $2B ? Or? Just not taking it IN?


That is the estimated cost of the Ukraine "Special Operation" to Russia: $500 millions/day.
 
cuban8
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:48 am

Vicenza wrote:
cuban8 wrote:
With that said, as long as the west is turning a blind eye to Turkey’s sanction busting in aviation, spare parts accessibility to Russia will only be a matter of time.


I'm afraid you are deluding yourself . As much as you seem to want to think so, there is no 'sanction-busting' by Turkey. Turkey has never joined any sanctions in the first place and, as a sovereign country they are perfectly entitled to make whatever choice they wish. There is no requirement for them, or any country for that matter to blindly follow western sanctions. To believe so is a complete delusion.


Of course every sovereign country is allowed to make their own decisions, but you seem to ignore the fact that Turkey is a NATO member and very much dependent on the west. Already now, Turkish banks are stopping payments from Russia due possible sanction repercussions, presumably they are deluded too.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 022-09-22/

As for the Russian aviation industry, they are several decades away from anything resembling a modern airplane. Their only short term solution is to try to keep the current models (both Russian and Western) up and running…….which they already do.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:16 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
They don't need to worry about pilot counts - they can draft pilots.


Well, how ironic is that?

Aeroflot pilots (and presumably pilots from other airlines) will likely be drafted into the Russian military. A further nail in the coffin of Russian civil aviation.
https://news.yahoo.com/half-workers-rus ... 05548.html
 
Noshow
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:31 am

Or sort of planning for the new reality that they won't be needed in the old numbers for some time? If you cannot use your A and B fleets anymore due to lack of parts you don't need the mechanics and staff.
 
LJ
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:30 pm

scbriml wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
They don't need to worry about pilot counts - they can draft pilots.


Well, how ironic is that?

Aeroflot pilots (and presumably pilots from other airlines) will likely be drafted into the Russian military. A further nail in the coffin of Russian civil aviation.
https://news.yahoo.com/half-workers-rus ... 05548.html


According to news articles they're requesting an exemption just like air traffic controlers (which are more important than pilots as a shortage of traffic controlers would not only impact airline, but all airlines currently flying to/from/over Russia). The same applies to mechanics and other staff needed (groundhandlers etc).
 
ikramerica
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:42 pm

2175301 wrote:
kjeld0d wrote:
Must be planning to replace with paper airplanes.


Russia is a lot smarter and more capable than that.

It would not surprise me to see a wood frame and canvas small prop driven passenger aircraft (say seating 6-10). That would be fairly easy to do and Russia most certainly has the capability for that.

Of course, they might upgrade the skin to fiberglass on a wood frame. But, I think you get the idea.

As for Russia producing even modest quantities of a passenger jet in the size range of the A320 series or B737 series. I just don't see it. Their manufacturing base for many things (electronics, hydraulics, brakes, etc.) was largely dismantled because 'western' parts were far cheaper. It would likely take most of a decade to rebuild just the mechanical part of that manufacturing base, and likely 15 - 20 years to rebuild a reasonable microchip manufacturing base again.

Except they don’t have to.

The BRICS alliance has all of the raw materials, chip manufacturing and manufacturing know how to build jets from 50-350 seats. They may not be as competitive in terms of efficiency compared to Boeing and Airbus, but they also won’t have anti-oil governments as a monkey on their backs.

Russia isn’t claiming they will go it alone. Just they are done with relying on the west.
 
FatAmy
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:11 pm

wow..okay.. well lets see how that will work out for them !!
 
MLIAA
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:52 pm

ikramerica wrote:
2175301 wrote:
kjeld0d wrote:
Must be planning to replace with paper airplanes.


Russia is a lot smarter and more capable than that.

It would not surprise me to see a wood frame and canvas small prop driven passenger aircraft (say seating 6-10). That would be fairly easy to do and Russia most certainly has the capability for that.

Of course, they might upgrade the skin to fiberglass on a wood frame. But, I think you get the idea.

As for Russia producing even modest quantities of a passenger jet in the size range of the A320 series or B737 series. I just don't see it. Their manufacturing base for many things (electronics, hydraulics, brakes, etc.) was largely dismantled because 'western' parts were far cheaper. It would likely take most of a decade to rebuild just the mechanical part of that manufacturing base, and likely 15 - 20 years to rebuild a reasonable microchip manufacturing base again.

Except they don’t have to.

The BRICS alliance has all of the raw materials, chip manufacturing and manufacturing know how to build jets from 50-350 seats. They may not be as competitive in terms of efficiency compared to Boeing and Airbus, but they also won’t have anti-oil governments as a monkey on their backs.

Russia isn’t claiming they will go it alone. Just they are done with relying on the west.


Nobody is hitching their wagons to Russia, especially anyone neutral with a proven commercial aircraft track record (Brazil).

This is a time where the west is saying “are you with us or Russia” and if it’s the latter, your economy is as good as dead too.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:03 pm

Nothing lasts for ever. One day the war will be over. One day there will be a different government in Russia. The next day western countries will be falling over themselves to re-integrate Russia into the global economy. The day after that western aerospace contacts will be signed once again.
 
luckyone
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:36 pm

ikramerica wrote:
2175301 wrote:
kjeld0d wrote:
Must be planning to replace with paper airplanes.


Russia is a lot smarter and more capable than that.

It would not surprise me to see a wood frame and canvas small prop driven passenger aircraft (say seating 6-10). That would be fairly easy to do and Russia most certainly has the capability for that.

Of course, they might upgrade the skin to fiberglass on a wood frame. But, I think you get the idea.

As for Russia producing even modest quantities of a passenger jet in the size range of the A320 series or B737 series. I just don't see it. Their manufacturing base for many things (electronics, hydraulics, brakes, etc.) was largely dismantled because 'western' parts were far cheaper. It would likely take most of a decade to rebuild just the mechanical part of that manufacturing base, and likely 15 - 20 years to rebuild a reasonable microchip manufacturing base again.

Except they don’t have to.

The BRICS alliance has all of the raw materials, chip manufacturing and manufacturing know how to build jets from 50-350 seats. They may not be as competitive in terms of efficiency compared to Boeing and Airbus, but they also won’t have anti-oil governments as a monkey on their backs.

Russia isn’t claiming they will go it alone. Just they are done with relying on the west.

The only one of the BRICS that has fielded a successful commercial airliner of any appreciable production capacity has been Embraer. And those aircraft are chock full of American components. The Brazilians haven’t demonstrated any skill in avionics or engines. I’m not convinced that Brazil is going to go out on a limb for Russia, as their economy is very intertwined with the US and Western Europe. India, possibly but they don’t have any appreciable aviation industry. China is already attempting to make their aviation industry sanction-proof but aren’t there yet. It’s for a separate thread but I’d love to see what the Chinese do with their economy if/when the West suddenly realizes we don’t mind paying a little more for cheap crap.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:55 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Nothing lasts for ever. One day the war will be over. One day there will be a different government in Russia. The next day western countries will be falling over themselves to re-integrate Russia into the global economy. The day after that western aerospace contacts will be signed once again.


I'm not so sure. That's what happened in the 1990s and it got us here. Russia will have to make amends and pay reparations to Ukraine before all sanctions are lifted.

And western companies might be able to sell stuff to Russia again, but not do things like partnerships, joint ventures etc. So difficult to relaunch a mostly Russian industry.

The most logical thing by then is to use Boeing and Airbus aircraft again (and maybe restart the projects with China).
 
Vicenza
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:33 pm

MLIAA wrote:

This is a time where the west is saying “are you with us or Russia” and if it’s the latter, your economy is as good as dead too.


Enlighten me how the economies of China, India, Turkey for example are "as good as dead"? I'll wait.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:55 pm

Vicenza wrote:
MLIAA wrote:

This is a time where the west is saying “are you with us or Russia” and if it’s the latter, your economy is as good as dead too.


Enlighten me how the economies of China, India, Turkey for example are "as good as dead"? I'll wait.

You’re right. 80% annual inflation like in turkey is totally healthy economic status.
 
gloom
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:02 pm

ikramerica wrote:
The BRICS alliance has all of the raw materials, chip manufacturing and manufacturing know how to build jets from 50-350 seats. They may not be as competitive in terms of efficiency compared to Boeing and Airbus, but they also won’t have anti-oil governments as a monkey on their backs.

Russia isn’t claiming they will go it alone. Just they are done with relying on the west.


There is a major flaw in all those "we'll build our own planes" supporting posts.

While I agree that Russians can build anything flying, and try to omit any modern technology (including, but not restricted to electronics, alloys and CRFP, high bypass gas turbines etc), and get something flying, you forget two major factors.

One is being able to put them in any reliable design. It's not useful to have a plane that is falling out of sky every year. And Russian planes (USSR built) have been known to fall quite often. Certainly even more so since they've not built anything new from the scratch and russian components.

Furthermore, I agree the problem will be tooling. They have hardly any manufacturing plants experience nowadays, since they were coming from West, ith advanced electronic components (soon to be dead), don't have technologies and would need to do most of the work with handworkers. Plus, limited resources will need to be shared between different machines/products (what is your priority, tanks, or cars, planes or ships, manufacturing plants for bricks or steel milss, military or civil?). While I fully agree they would be able to design an aircraft, I doubt they would be able to get it running into numbers for a reasonable time. There will be nothing but shortages between markets, certainly. And other markets will have prioirty to access whatever components are required.

So, for me it's all clear: while we can argue it can be designed/built, it will not be taking over the work from western airliners, period. That's just impossible, even with "friendly support". It wasn't possible to build all necessary extra (additional) capabilities, since it was easier to buy these western, and any remaining would not be spared on new planes, and everything Russia would need. Higher priorities are down the queue, and resources are limited for quite a time.

That's my 2 cents.

Cheers,
Adam
 
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william
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:09 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Nothing lasts for ever. One day the war will be over. One day there will be a different government in Russia. The next day western countries will be falling over themselves to re-integrate Russia into the global economy. The day after that western aerospace contacts will be signed once again.


Ding ding ding ding, we have a winner.

For the mythical China aviation sector that has been talked about for the last two decades, may finally have an external customer to ship too..............When they come up with a viable product.
 
Noshow
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:22 pm

Where did you prove that Russia can produce all those aircraft needed fast? By adding Soviet Union total production figures from tens of years away?
And Western Europe is producing quite a few airliners. More in a month than Russia does in a year.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:37 pm

FatAmy wrote:
wow..okay.. well lets see how that will work out for them !!


Prior to the first sanctions in 2014 Russian shipyards relied on imported hi speed diesel engines, marine gas turbines and gearboxes, they now make all these products in Russia. If there's a will a way will be found to supply whats necessary.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:03 pm

For Russia to establish an independent air liner industry is going to involve the old engineering milieu of choose two: price, time, quality. Most of us think 10 years to even get a good start at it. The war will end. Russia will want trade relations with the west. No one, especially The Ukraine will be made whole, Russia will not do much better.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:14 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
FatAmy wrote:
wow..okay.. well lets see how that will work out for them !!


Prior to the first sanctions in 2014 Russian shipyards relied on imported hi speed diesel engines, marine gas turbines and gearboxes, they now make all these products in Russia. If there's a will a way will be found to supply whats necessary.

For sure; but those parts you mentioned do not need to be hi-tech, unlike what safe and efficient commercial aviation needs to be.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:13 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
FatAmy wrote:
wow..okay.. well lets see how that will work out for them !!


Prior to the first sanctions in 2014 Russian shipyards relied on imported hi speed diesel engines, marine gas turbines and gearboxes, they now make all these products in Russia. If there's a will a way will be found to supply whats necessary.

For sure; but those parts you mentioned do not need to be hi-tech, unlike what safe and efficient commercial aviation needs to be.


Of course these are high tech parts.
 
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totesen
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:23 pm

phlswaflyer wrote:
https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/russia-swearing-off-boeing-airbus-products/

"Russia doesn’t exactly have a sterling track record of aviation successes in commercial airliners. See the site https://www.rbth.com

Included on the list are:
1. The AN-2 single engine/fabric covered biplane/crop duster–first produced in 1947
2. Il-18 turboprop–looks like a Lockheed Electra from the 50s/60s
3. Il-62–4 aft-mounted engines, like a Jetstar–from 1963
4. The Yak-40 30-40-seat trijet from the early 60s.
5. The TU-144 Supersonic airliner–dubbed “Concordski”. Only 2 were built. While not a commercial success, NASA used one for research purposes.
6.TU-154–Most produced airliner in Russia, with 1026 units–though only one remains in service.
7. IL-86–an attempt at a wide-body aircraft to challenge the 747. 106 built.
8. IL-96–didn’t enter commercial service, but one does serve as the Russian “Air Force One.”
9. SSJ-100–an attempt for design of a regional airliner. Outside of Russia, Mexico is the only foreign operator, with 22.
10. MC-21–latest attempt at airliner production. First flight in 2017–production not yet started.

Not exactly a sterling record of commercial successes! (Much like Russian-built automobiles!) I don’t think the rest of the worlds airframers have much to fear from Russia’s withdrawal from non-Russian manufacturers."


Interjet was the only operator, the airline is currently under bankruptcy and suspended operations since 2020. A lot of blame on performance of the SSJ has been done. Even do they where a lot of issues with the airline (Their business model to start with) before its demise a lot of people blame it on the SSJ.

So currently No western operators, Brussels Airlines did operate a few of them. But got rid of them early due to issues:

While the contract had the aircraft flying with Brussels Airlines until March 2019, Airport Spotting reports that the carrier had to suspend its SSJ100 operations a few months early, following a series of serviceability and reliability issues. Brussels Airlines wasn't the only carrier burned by its decision to operate the jet. Mexican carrier Interjet had ordered 22 SSJ100s but was only operating a fraction of its fleet due to an inability to obtain spare parts.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:47 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
For sure; but those parts you mentioned do not need to be hi-tech, unlike what safe and efficient commercial aviation needs to be.


Aviation existed for multiple decades worldwide without being "Hi-Tech" in the context you mean. But those mentioned are most certainly High Tech, so I'm curious to know what you consider the term to be.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:50 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:

Prior to the first sanctions in 2014 Russian shipyards relied on imported hi speed diesel engines, marine gas turbines and gearboxes, they now make all these products in Russia. If there's a will a way will be found to supply whats necessary.

For sure; but those parts you mentioned do not need to be hi-tech, unlike what safe and efficient commercial aviation needs to be.


Of course these are high tech parts.

No. Diesel engines can be old tech and still run perfectly, gearboxes can be designed oversized (low tech) and still run perfectly, marine gas turbine engines can be designed with heavier material (low tech) and still run as intended.

Most nations can design and build an aircraft (even a low pax count airliner); but, without high tech, they will be much less efficient than what's currently available on the free market, much less reliable and potentially much less safe.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:53 pm

Vicenza wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
For sure; but those parts you mentioned do not need to be hi-tech, unlike what safe and efficient commercial aviation needs to be.


Aviation existed for multiple decades worldwide without being "Hi-Tech" in the context you mean. But those mentioned are most certainly High Tech, so I'm curious to know what you consider the term to be.

And the low tech aviation of decades ago is no longer financially viable given the high tech alternatives available today on the market.
Road vehicles can be made very low tech, so can ships, aircraft, etc; but are they competitive in today's market given the newer higher tech models available? Usually no.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:31 pm

Reuters has got an article

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-09-28/

Where it says they want to build 1036 aircraft until 2030.

"From 2022 to 2030 Russia plans to deliver 1,036 passenger planes. That includes 142 Superjet-New and 270 MS-21, as well as 70 turboprop Il-114, 70 medium-haul Tu-214, and 12 wide-body Il-96, designed locally, according to government documents."

But if you add the list up it only comes to 564 aircraft.
Are the rest going to be AN-2 or what else would there be??

Oddly earlier it also states "72 new medium-haul MS-21 from 2029, beginning with six in 2024" so they'll need to build about 200 in 4 years from 2025.

But I'd agree with Aboulafia here that it's "basically impossible".

But it's good to set your goals high.
Perhaps the budget will be there for the 1000 and the difference will disappear into Poutines cronies pockets.
 
TonyClifton
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:32 pm

They’ve built 89 Tu-204 since 1989…
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:12 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
For sure; but those parts you mentioned do not need to be hi-tech, unlike what safe and efficient commercial aviation needs to be.


Of course these are high tech parts.

No. Diesel engines can be old tech and still run perfectly, gearboxes can be designed oversized (low tech) and still run perfectly, marine gas turbine engines can be designed with heavier material (low tech) and still run as intended.

Most nations can design and build an aircraft (even a low pax count airliner); but, without high tech, they will be much less efficient than what's currently available on the free market, much less reliable and potentially much less safe.


A good example is the 737: Compare the performance of the classic, the NG, and the MAX. The classic's performance is so far off the MAX it hardly flies freight anymore, only special cases is the classic still in passenger service. This is due both to fuel efficiency but also maintenance and reliability. Building without high tech will get them a classic at best, no where near a NEO.
 
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Heavierthanair
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:59 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
They’ve built 89 Tu-204 since 1989…


Holy mackerel, that's a plane every quarter, an unreal achievement in the UDSSR! :bigthumbsup:
 
mortkork
Posts: 22
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:47 pm

They are going to need western planes for international routes for many years. I don't see any designs flying through the FAA and EASA approval process for carrying passengers through their airspaces.
 
LJ
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:15 am

mortkork wrote:
They are going to need western planes for international routes for many years. I don't see any designs flying through the FAA and EASA approval process for carrying passengers through their airspaces.


Isn't the IL96 already certified by FAA and EASA? AFAIK the avionics for the IL96-400M is certified for Europe and US.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:59 am

TonyClifton wrote:
They’ve built 89 Tu-204 since 1989…


To expand on this...

Sukhoi Superjet - 230 built since 2007, but 60 of those are parked (incl two w/o).
MS-21 - 6 built since 2017, still not certified.
Il-96 - 32 built in over 30 years, only 14 in service (12 Russian Government and agencies, two with Cubana).
Il-114 - production started in 1992, paused in 2012 and restarted in 2016. 22 built, none in airline service.

Sources: Wiki, online aviation databases.
 
Noshow
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:05 am

The most modern thing they can build alone and right away might be the Il-76 with new engines. Versatile and can be used as passenger transport. The military even had high density double-deck seating platforms to mount in the cargo deck. Not sure what their suppliers think about rate hikes?

https://feitoffake.files.wordpress.com/ ... aapmxc.jpg
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:29 am

Passenger transport as in you can transport people in it. Not in any way remotely similar to a regular passenger airline operation.
 
Noshow
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Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Russia Swearing Off Boeing, Airbus Products

Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:37 am

It's no nonsense logistics. But in a country sized like theirs, you should take what is possible? More realistic than hoping for hundreds of MS-21s soon.

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