Hurricane Ian

MohawkWeekend · Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:18 am

Any news on airline preparations for the storm?

MrBretz · Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:31 am

I imagine TPA is getting ready. When I lived in Orlando and these things were on the way, I recall watching the last couple airplanes leaving the airport before they closed. It’s not comforting.

SRQLOT · Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:37 am

Yeah I’m flying Wednesday from SRQ. I wonder. From what I’m hearing it’s moving further west.

DLASFlyer · Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:52 am

ATL might get the aftermath late in the week.

NightMaher · Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:00 am

DLASFlyer wrote:
ATL might get the aftermath late in the week.

I'm supposed to fly Delta into Atlanta Friday afternoon. I wonder what the odds are of that happening????? :confused:

FlyingElvii · Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:41 am

Just a “Typical” hurricane…

It all depends on which way the storm wobbles coming over Cuba.

Sooner787 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:55 am

I'm watching to see if/when we might see planes bugging out from Tyndall & Eglin AFB 's
as well as NAS ???

MY sister's family own a beach home near KECP

BTVB6Flyer · Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:59 am

Was supposed to fly back into TPA Wednesday 2pm on UA, cancelled the whole trip as I didn't want to get stuck in Vermont. Riding whatever out here in Tampa.

reednavy · Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:04 am

SRQLOT wrote:
Yeah I’m flying Wednesday from SRQ. I wonder. From what I’m hearing it’s moving further west.

What you were hearing was the trend the previous day or two, now everything is strongly coming back east. Tropical Storm Watch up for SW FL coast Englewood to Chokoloskee. Likely will see a Hurricane Watch from Englewood to at least St. Marks, FL later tomorrow. Airlines will start making their cancellations probably midday/afternoon tomorrow.

The angle of approach will follow up the coast & Peninsula, so that's going to really constrict flow even into the MIA-FLL-PBI side.

Fixinthe757 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:33 am

gonna go with-dont fly into it. wherever it ends up going

LAXintl · Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:24 am

Forecast path as of Sunday 11pm Eastern

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdjQCIiX0AA ... name=small

SRQLOT · Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:30 am

reednavy wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
Yeah I’m flying Wednesday from SRQ. I wonder. From what I’m hearing it’s moving further west.

What you were hearing was the trend the previous day or two, now everything is strongly coming back east. Tropical Storm Watch up for SW FL coast Englewood to Chokoloskee. Likely will see a Hurricane Watch from Englewood to at least St. Marks, FL later tomorrow. Airlines will start making their cancellations probably midday/afternoon tomorrow.

The angle of approach will follow up the coast & Peninsula, so that's going to really constrict flow even into the MIA-FLL-PBI side.

Well I’m hoping and I mean we, lol. We are driving back down from Gatlinburg TN Tuesday and Im hoping that if Southwest cancels FT Myers Sarasota and Tampa this Wednesday and on , that I could get on a flight on our drive back from Atlanta.

SaabFA71 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:06 am

We're supposed to be flying down from MDT to SFB on Friday. Looks like that 'aint going to happen now. Maybe Sunday at the earliest, but we'll wait and see and hope for the best.

tjwgrr · Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:27 am

New forecast track as of 5am EDT Monday 26-Sept much further east:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

atcsundevil · Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:46 am

Aside from the obvious (meaning Florida), there will be significant impacts to the east coast up to the northeast from Saturday through Monday night. I would anticipate a lot of flights being canceled through Monday and maybe even into Tuesday. Just because the storm will weaken into a post tropical low by the time it gets to New York doesn't mean there won't be major impacts, so I fully expect airlines to be planning on that eventuality.

krsw757 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:12 pm

Based off the current track as of this morning and what I’ve seen in the past, southeast Florida airports will probably run close to normal ops with probably minimal cancellations. As it approaches the west coast, all flights will shift to the east coast arrivals and then shift again to the AR arrivals as it gets closer to the Jax area. While most don’t in case of an emergency most planes are capable of flying over it as well as they’re typically not as tall as the afternoon thunderstorms we get on a daily basis. Definitely more do it than you would think though. I would expect most flights into west Florida will be affected as well as MCO. MCO also stated that the remaining airlines yet to be moved to C are on hold until after the storm passes. Not sure about Miami center but Jax is starting to prepare to go into hurricane ops.

WayexTDI · Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:29 pm

NightMaher wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
ATL might get the aftermath late in the week.

I'm supposed to fly Delta into Atlanta Friday afternoon. I wonder what the odds are of that happening?????

Right now, ATL's region is not supposed to get strong winds, maybe 20-ish MPH. Shouldn't cause real disruption.

tjwgrr · Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:41 pm

krsw757 wrote:
Based off the current track as of this morning and what I’ve seen in the past, southeast Florida airports will probably run close to normal ops with probably minimal cancellations....

Forecasters are talking about a "nor'easter" type impact for the east coast of FL with higher winds and heavy rains as Ian rotates off to the west. I would expect some delays will occur, plus ATC will have their hand's full vectoring everyone around cells.

miami123 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:55 pm

I suspect that SE Florida and maybe SW Florida airports will remain open with flights but there will be delays, particularly out of MIA and FLL. Impacted areas seem to be more TPA, central FL and NE Florida.

krsw757 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:19 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
krsw757 wrote:
Based off the current track as of this morning and what I’ve seen in the past, southeast Florida airports will probably run close to normal ops with probably minimal cancellations....

Forecasters are talking about a "nor'easter" type impact for the east coast of FL with higher winds and heavy rains as Ian rotates off to the west. I would expect some delays will occur, plus ATC will have their hand's full vectoring everyone around cells.

Delays yes, but they’ll push to keep it running. I’ll be one of the ones with my hands full. I’ve seen what they try to get in and out right up until the last minute.

Dldiamondboy · Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:30 pm

NightMaher wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
ATL might get the aftermath late in the week.

I'm supposed to fly Delta into Atlanta Friday afternoon. I wonder what the odds are of that happening?????

I live 60 miles due north of Hartsfield. Weather forecast this morning was indicating 3.65" of rain from Ian. If its only rain its one thing. If Ian retains tropical storm strength that's a different ball game.

PI4EVER · Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:56 pm

I'm in Tampa and would assume TPA/PIE and SRQ may shut down operations Tuesday evening or maybe an early RON departure Wednesday morning and then shut down.
We've been advised this morning of flood zone evacuations beginning this afternoon and tidal surge to range from 7-9 feet so with the wind and rain forecast flights will be suspended until most likely Thursday evening or Friday. At the least a Tropical Storm wind advisory can exceed 74MPH so with embedded convection and tornado activity, you don't want to be bouncing around up there. Fly safe.

BTVB6Flyer · Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:20 pm

Well TPA is in evac zone A, which was ordered to EVAC effective 9/26 2pm. So surely an airport closure will come soon-ish

T5towbar · Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:21 pm

NightMaher wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
ATL might get the aftermath late in the week.

I'm supposed to fly Delta into Atlanta Friday afternoon. I wonder what the odds are of that happening?????

There's a big series happening this weekend between the Braves and the Mets. MLB is talking about possibly moving the series to a neutral site, depending on how Atlanta is affected by Ian. So far, I haven't heard about any cancellations on either DL or UA (out of EWR) this weekend. But it is too early to tell. But I hear there are prepping for weather in TPA and SRQ.

LAXintl · Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:01 pm

Forecast as of 12noon Monday.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdmX3iCWQAA ... name=small

graham697 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:16 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Well TPA is in evac zone A, which was ordered to EVAC effective 9/26 2pm. So surely an airport closure will come soon-ish

TPA is actually exempted from the order as critical infrastructure, but they are closing parts of the airfield and I'd probably ferry any airworthy planes out. Storm surge will definitely hit parts of the field.

maverick4002 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:16 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
krsw757 wrote:
Based off the current track as of this morning and what I’ve seen in the past, southeast Florida airports will probably run close to normal ops with probably minimal cancellations....

Forecasters are talking about a "nor'easter" type impact for the east coast of FL with higher winds and heavy rains as Ian rotates off to the west. I would expect some delays will occur, plus ATC will have their hand's full vectoring everyone around cells.

What's a nor'easter type impact mean? A hurricane...is a hurricane. A nor'easter...is a winter storm. So what exactly do they mean? Are they expecting snow and ice?

reednavy · Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:37 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
tjwgrr wrote:
krsw757 wrote:
Based off the current track as of this morning and what I’ve seen in the past, southeast Florida airports will probably run close to normal ops with probably minimal cancellations....

Forecasters are talking about a "nor'easter" type impact for the east coast of FL with higher winds and heavy rains as Ian rotates off to the west. I would expect some delays will occur, plus ATC will have their hand's full vectoring everyone around cells.

What's a nor'easter type impact mean? A hurricane...is a hurricane. A nor'easter...is a winter storm. So what exactly do they mean? Are they expecting snow and ice?

NE Florida has a local nor'easter that is relatively common in late fall to early spring with low pressure systems riding up off the coast or strong N-NE winds behind strong cold fronts that can last for several days with strong winds at/near the coast, high surf, high tides, and heavy rainfall. Some of the stronger events can produce winds sustained at 30-40kts at the coast and minor storm surge flooding. If you're from or a frequent visitor to the First Coast, you know.

reednavy · Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:40 pm

graham697 wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
Well TPA is in evac zone A, which was ordered to EVAC effective 9/26 2pm. So surely an airport closure will come soon-ish

TPA is actually exempted from the order as critical infrastructure, but they are closing parts of the airfield and I'd probably ferry any airworthy planes out. Storm surge will definitely hit parts of the field.

Access into the airport will get submerged anyways, especially where 275 & FL 60/589 intertwine along with Bean Pkwy. Being at the head of Old Tampa Bay, it's northeast side at that, surge will be locally enhanced even further in areas like this.

NightMaher · Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:11 pm

Dldiamondboy wrote:
NightMaher wrote:
DLASFlyer wrote:
ATL might get the aftermath late in the week.

I'm supposed to fly Delta into Atlanta Friday afternoon. I wonder what the odds are of that happening?????

I live 60 miles due north of Hartsfield. Weather forecast this morning was indicating 3.65" of rain from Ian. If its only rain its one thing. If Ian retains tropical storm strength that's a different ball game.

I landed up cancelling the trip. It was just a weekend trip, and it just sounds like it will be way too soggy to enjoy. :raincloud:

NolaMD88fan · Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:44 pm

PIE will be closing at 1 PM tomorrow due to being in Evacuation zone A for Pinellas County. Surge maps indicate up to 6 feet of water above ground level over portions of the airfield. TPA is a bit better off, but could still have between 3 and 6 feet of water above ground level in the southwest quarter of the airfield including parts of RWY 1L-19R and RWY 10-28. Fingers crossed it won't be as bad as feared.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/163741.shtml?inundation#contents

atcsundevil · Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:58 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
What's a nor'easter type impact mean? A hurricane...is a hurricane. A nor'easter...is a winter storm. So what exactly do they mean? Are they expecting snow and ice?

A nor'easter has nothing to do with the type of precipitation — it's the weather pattern. It relates to wind direction that blows from the northeast, although as an extratropical cyclone. In this case, this is a hurricane, which is a tropical cyclone, but it will cause nor'easter type impact due to the wind direction and movement of the low pressure area.

FLALEFTY · Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:13 pm

Here's a GIF of a GOES15-GM-02 Satellite imagery of the Gulf of Mexico and the western half of the Caribbean Sea. Ian now has 85kts sustained winds (still a CAT 1) and a very large circulation of the outer bands. The storm has turned more to the North as it heads towards Cuba. Strengthening is expected overnight.

(this GIF takes a bit to load, so be patient)

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

jco613 · Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:59 pm

My best guess for airports other than TPA, expect RSW to close tomorrow at some point, SRQ as well, I'd say you could safely get planes out of TPA Wednesday morning, but not much later than noon. So far, the airlines don't seem to be reacting too crazy but I did see a few changes:
Tomorrow DL2577 757-->753 TPA-ATL
Tomorrow DL2896 757-->763 TPA-ATL
Tomorrow AA is flying 2 TPA-ORD (just 1 today), but I don't know if that is scheduled as normal...
Tomorrow AA is upping TPA-DCA to 4 flights from 3, again don't know if that is normal for Tuesday

SoCalPilot · Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:08 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
Here's a GIF of a GOES15-GM-02 Satellite imagery of the Gulf of Mexico and the western half of the Caribbean Sea. Ian now has 85kts sustained winds (still a CAT 1) and a very large circulation of the outer bands. The storm has turned more to the North as it heads towards Cuba. Strengthening is expected overnight.

(this GIF takes a bit to load, so be patient)

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

85 knots is a Cat 2. Ian has sustained winds of 100 MPH now.

MrBretz · Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:08 pm

The latest track looks like it may make landfall in Tampa. I know these things change.

MohawkWeekend · Mon Sep 26, 2022 10:39 pm

Was looking on the gas price website for what prices were in Tampa. Still rather low but many stations show they are out of fuel. Anyone if Florida able to confirm?

SRQLOT · Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:41 pm

Well my flight got pushed to Thursday out of SRQ. I just don’t think until it goes thru Cuba should they have made a change.

FLALEFTY · Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:09 am

SoCalPilot wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
Here's a GIF of a GOES15-GM-02 Satellite imagery of the Gulf of Mexico and the western half of the Caribbean Sea. Ian now has 85kts sustained winds (still a CAT 1) and a very large circulation of the outer bands. The storm has turned more to the North as it heads towards Cuba. Strengthening is expected overnight.

(this GIF takes a bit to load, so be patient)

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

85 knots is a Cat 2. Ian has sustained winds of 100 MPH now.

My bad. I meant to put 85 mph, not knots. That's a Category 1.

Still at 100 mph, which is at the lower end of the Category 2 Saffir-Simpson scale. It is 130 mi SE of the western tip of Cuba and probably will cross 111 mph sustained winds to become a Category 3 overnight. At this point it will be considered a major hurricane.

Here's the 8 p.m. advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2359.shtml

smokeybandit · Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:14 am

TPA shutting down at 5pm tomorrow

CRJ200flyer · Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:36 am

I see in the Delta app DL9895 TPA-ATL at 1130 and DL9986 TPA-ATL at 1645, both 717-200s. Are these extra sections or for something else?

BTVB6Flyer · Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:38 am

Will be interesting to see the outbound of flyable AC that are in TPA. A handful of Breeze's A220's have been sitting here and PEMCO has a lot of A321's that have been sitting outside of the hangers.

gdavis003 · Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:40 am

CRJ200flyer wrote:
I see in the Delta app DL9895 TPA-ATL at 1130 and DL9986 TPA-ATL at 1645, both 717-200s. Are these extra sections or for something else?

Extra sections, added today I believe. For abnormal DL flight numbers, this tends to be the rule: 8800-8960 (approximately) are sports charters or sports related ferry flights, 8950 (approx.) - 8999 is usually military, 97** or 98** is usually an extra section, 99** is maintenance or ferry.

CRJ200flyer · Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:41 am

smokeybandit wrote:
TPA shutting down at 5pm tomorrow

“Tampa International Airport will suspend all operations beginning at 5 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 27 due to Hurricane Ian, which continues to threaten the Tampa Bay region with strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge.

The 5 p.m. closure will allow the Airport to prepare the airfield and terminals, including the securing of jet bridges, ground equipment, and any remaining aircraft. The Airport, including the Main Terminal, Airsides, and parking garages will be closed to all visitors at that time.”

https://news.tampaairport.com/tampa-international-airport-prepares-for-potential-severe-impacts-from-hurricane-ian/

——————

“St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (PIE)
Hurricane Ian Update 9-26-22 3:15 pm

Beginning at 1:00 pm Tuesday, September 27th, the airport terminal building will close due to Pinellas County Evacuation mandates and will remain closed until the mandatory evacuation has been lifted for Zone A, at a minimum.”

https://fly2pie.com/newsroom/pie-hurricane-ian-update

jco613 · Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:49 am

CRJ200flyer wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
TPA shutting down at 5pm tomorrow

“Tampa International Airport will suspend all operations beginning at 5 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 27 due to Hurricane Ian, which continues to threaten the Tampa Bay region with strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge.

The 5 p.m. closure will allow the Airport to prepare the airfield and terminals, including the securing of jet bridges, ground equipment, and any remaining aircraft. The Airport, including the Main Terminal, Airsides, and parking garages will be closed to all visitors at that time.”

https://news.tampaairport.com/tampa-international-airport-prepares-for-potential-severe-impacts-from-hurricane-ian/

The two flights I listed for DL that were upgauges departed after 5pm, so I guess that explains the extra sections added instead.

tcfc424 · Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:01 am

Anyone know if N757AG, which is a VIP 757 is in airworthy condition? It's listed for sale on Controller and looks beautiful inside. Flight aware shows it's last flight last year into Sarasota. Doesn't seem that it would fare very well against this storm. Just curious.

asuflyer · Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:19 am

KX flew their entire fleet out of GCM during the storm. VP-CIY was flown to TPA, it will be interesting to see if it gets flown out.

jco613 · Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:24 am

TPA update:
Looks like the last scheduled departure tomorrow for DL is a 5:05 pm to ATL.
United is operating all flights and has moved up its 6:15 to EWR to 4:45. Their 5:35 to IAH now leaves at 4:00
WN will wrap with their 4:05 to MKE
Alaska’s SEA flight will be stopping in ATL presumably for fuel
B6 still has a 5:25 to LGA scheduled to go.
Air Canada will fly 1 flight tomorrow
Avelo does not have a scheduled departure tomorrow
AA has canceled all departures after 5:00
Breeze has two A220s scheduled to go out to ORF tomorrow morning, they do not appear to be for sale, though.
Cayman is sending it's 738 back to GCM tomorrow and it has 58 seats available for as low as $253 for those who want to rough it out down there...business class is also wide open at $503 for those who want a little luxury in their evacuation!
F9 will finish with a 1:10 to ATL
Silver will only fly its 8:05 to FLL tomorrow
Sun Country will fly its MSP flight as scheduled
NK last flight will be to SJU at 4:05

MohawkWeekend · Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:29 am

”When I look at this storm, I feel like I felt when Andrew was approaching Miami and when Katrina was approaching New Orleans,” said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections and a former hurricane hunter. “We have a potential historic catastrophe in the making."
https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2022 ... tampa-bay/

jco613 · Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:06 am

jco613 wrote:
TPA update:
Looks like the last scheduled departure tomorrow for DL is a 5:05 pm to ATL.
United is operating all flights and has moved up its 6:15 to EWR to 4:45. Their 5:35 to IAH now leaves at 4:00
WN will wrap with their 4:05 to MKE
Alaska’s SEA flight will be stopping in ATL presumably for fuel
B6 still has a 5:25 to LGA scheduled to go.
Air Canada will fly 1 flight tomorrow
Avelo does not have a scheduled departure tomorrow
AA has canceled all departures after 5:00
Breeze has two A220s scheduled to go out to ORF tomorrow morning, they do not appear to be for sale, though.
Cayman is sending it's 738 back to GCM tomorrow and it has 58 seats available for as low as $253 for those who want to rough it out down there...business class is also wide open at $503 for those who want a little luxury in their evacuation!
F9 will finish with a 1:10 to ATL
Silver will only fly its 8:05 to FLL tomorrow
Sun Country will fly its MSP flight as scheduled
NK last flight will be to SJU at 4:05

For PIE the only flight is G4 1424 to TYS at 11:32am
SRQ remains open, as does RSW and PGD, as well as MCO and SFB...for now

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