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docmtl
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A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:49 pm

Hi, folks

Last year we ran a topic on the market battle between Airbus and Embraer for the 100-135 passenger segment, and Airbus seemed to have the upper hand.

How's this (business) battle going on in 2022 and beyond as far as orders, potential clients and future trends ?

Some major airlines are still looking for the best match for their fleet:

JAL
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-06-21/

Ethiopian
https://simpleflying.com/ethiopian-airl ... r-e195-e2/

Turkish
https://www.airlinerwatch.com/2022/09/t ... w.html?m=1

LOT
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... m-coverage

Your thoughts ?

docmtl
 
cloudboy
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:25 pm

There are two offerings in this market. And it's potentially a big one. What is America's obsession that there is a winner and looser? Both are going to do quite well. There's eough business to go around.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:42 pm

I'm guessing the OP is Canadian, actually.

If neither firm is making a market return on cost of capital (and Airbus is clear they are not), nobody is winning.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:46 pm

cloudboy wrote:
There are two offerings in this market. And it's potentially a big one. What is America's obsession that there is a winner and looser? Both are going to do quite well. There's eough business to go around.

Both doing quite well? The A220 sold 774 units, the E2 241; that's over 3:1...

Now, the A220 and E2 are only really overlapping (in terms of pax capacity) with the A220-100 and E195-E2; in this case, the E2 has the lead (221 E195-E2s vs 104 A220-100s). But, in the single aisle market, the bigger variant is the one that sells more, so it's not surprising.

Honestly, I do not believe the E2 and the A220 are competing head-to-head: the E2 is a smaller shorter range frame than the A220. I think they both have a place and a market; but that market is different; one of the reason is also the 4-ab vs 5-ab seating.
 
SEA
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:53 pm

There doesn't have to be a winner and loser... they both can be successful or unsuccessful. As the 737 and A320 families have shown us quite well, there is plenty of room for two big players, and they can actually compliment each other within the same fleet, if managed properly. (and the market is right)..
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:16 pm

docmtl wrote:
Hi, folks

Last year we ran a topic on the market battle between Airbus and Embraer for the 100-135 passenger segment, and Airbus seemed to have the upper hand.

How's this (business) battle going on in 2022 and beyond as far as orders, potential clients and future trends ?

Some major airlines are still looking for the best match for their fleet:

JAL
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-06-21/

Ethiopian
https://simpleflying.com/ethiopian-airl ... r-e195-e2/

Turkish
https://www.airlinerwatch.com/2022/09/t ... w.html?m=1

LOT
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... m-coverage

Your thoughts ?

docmtl


For JAL it'll be interesting as the original plan was to replaced all the E-Jets with the MRJ/SpaceJet. Now that the program is in hiatus...

Their E190 are fairly new so those will stayed for awhile. Their oldest E170 was built in 2008, though, and definitely will be phrased out first. E2 can still have an upper hand as I doubt JAL/J-Air will use them in non-domestic routes.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:16 pm

agree... the whole 'battle'.... 'winners' and 'losers'... it gets old. you see it everywhere... Intel vs AMD... (blah blah blah.. the R9-7950X is going to mop the floor with the i9-13900K)... In reality, everyone is building pretty good stuff these days. we pick the features, capabilities, price points, availability and financing options that are right for us.

Just enjoy aviation. competition keeps each manufacturer on their toes and gives us new things to look at. a plane that is selling 250 copies is just as viable as a plane that is selling 750 copies if they both can turn a profit for the manufacturer and be supported for the customer.

From a poorly selfish standpoint, I hope the E2-195 finds it's place in US airlines... I love the 2+2 seating... but some of the early E175s that I've been flying on lately are a little worn out on the insides... Would love to see those get replaced with new E2 metal! I have not had the priviledge to fly on an A220 yet... I hope to...
 
N766UA
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:07 pm

The biggest reason to buy an E2 is availability. A220 production is backed up pretty severely, so if you need a jet now, the E2 might be your only choice.

Otherwise the E2's are still just big RJ's. Narrow cabins, small galleys, cramped cockpits. The E2 that makes the most sense, the 175, is too big for the US market, which is by far its biggest potential application. Having flown both 190s and 220s as a passenger and a pilot, they're not even in the same league.
 
LPL74
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:43 pm

Airbus is supposedly losing up to $5 Million on every A220 sold. That doesn’t seem like winning to me.

Embraer hasn’t got such deep pockets, so I doubt they’re willing to accept such a loss to gain a sale.

It would be interesting to know if E2s are being sold above cost price. Being an updated product, built on the same production line as the E1, they won’t have had the same ramp up costs faced by Bombardier and then Airbus.

If winning is selling 700 items at a loss, and losing is selling 250 items at a profit, I’d personally pick the 2nd option.
 
Jomar777
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:09 am

There's so many angles & premises you can apply to this which makes one or another a winner.
Firstly, in regards to the project per se, Embraer won. The CS Project (as originally created) sent BBD to the ropes and nearly finished the company (even though it received so many subsidies from everywhere...).
But then, as an Airbus project, you could say that, hands down, Airbus won on this one since it acquired by a nominal fee a project where it did not spend any significant R&D and which, with their infrastructure from production to sales, could very successfuly be commercialized everywhere. The amount of orders overall speak for itself.
Yet, whilst most of the E2s that leave the factory are profit making (Embraer has no way in acquiring such losses for a program as Airbus - it would go BBD way if it even tried to sell at cost in such large scale), neither BBD (before...) nor Airbus (now...) are making any profit on the sales. Soo many orders with no profit whatsoever! No need to discuss the winner here if you take this view.
But then, if you consider performance and capacity, the A223 is nothing else but a direct competitor to the A319 as much as a soo dreamed of A225 would be to the A320. It is the A221 which competes direclty with the E2 and it is only against the E2-195, the biggest of the project. Compared, the E2 has more orders than the A221 and ALL of them are profitable ones contrary to Airbus' ones. So, whilst the A223 simply put a nail in the coffin of the A319, the A221 did not manage to finish with the E2 project. In surmise, Airbus killed one of it is own portfolio item instead of killing a competitor.
Yet, you may argue that Airbus strategy made a successful case in making airlines like Qantas and Air France, for example, to upgauge their regional fleets so that it could pitch the A223 more successfully rather than risk having the A221 exposed to the E2-195. Note that most of the E2 tender losses were against the A223 (not the A221) which seems to prove this. Note also that KLM did not select the A221/A223 for their Cityhooper fleet keeping the E2 for those and the A320neo for the replacement of their B737s (which are bigger).. Air France, also certianly was lobbed heavily to take the A223 given its ties, together with Airbus, to the French Government - but it is a good order for them regardless.
Overall you could argue either way.
Personally, I feel the E2 is a solid product with a good market share. The A220 killed BBD but it is a great platform for Airbus to develop further as a base for a replacement of the A320 family (A319 & A320)
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:21 pm

The 140 bizjets BBD delivered last year would disagree that they’re dead. But, yes, the CS killed the airliner side, ,the collapse of RJ deliveries didn’t help. BBD problem now, caused by the near bankruptcy, is lack of capital to delvelop and bring to market replacements for the Challenger side product. They need to design a new FBW Global 6500 and a clean sheet Chalkenger 650 sized plane.
 
docmtl
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:48 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
There's so many angles & premises you can apply to this which makes one or another a winner.
Firstly, in regards to the project per se, Embraer won. The CS Project (as originally created) sent BBD to the ropes and nearly finished the company (even though it received so many subsidies from everywhere...).
But then, as an Airbus project, you could say that, hands down, Airbus won on this one since it acquired by a nominal fee a project where it did not spend any significant R&D and which, with their infrastructure from production to sales, could very successfuly be commercialized everywhere. The amount of orders overall speak for itself.
Yet, whilst most of the E2s that leave the factory are profit making (Embraer has no way in acquiring such losses for a program as Airbus - it would go BBD way if it even tried to sell at cost in such large scale), neither BBD (before...) nor Airbus (now...) are making any profit on the sales. Soo many orders with no profit whatsoever! No need to discuss the winner here if you take this view.
But then, if you consider performance and capacity, the A223 is nothing else but a direct competitor to the A319 as much as a soo dreamed of A225 would be to the A320. It is the A221 which competes direclty with the E2 and it is only against the E2-195, the biggest of the project. Compared, the E2 has more orders than the A221 and ALL of them are profitable ones contrary to Airbus' ones. So, whilst the A223 simply put a nail in the coffin of the A319, the A221 did not manage to finish with the E2 project. In surmise, Airbus killed one of it is own portfolio item instead of killing a competitor.
Yet, you may argue that Airbus strategy made a successful case in making airlines like Qantas and Air France, for example, to upgauge their regional fleets so that it could pitch the A223 more successfully rather than risk having the A221 exposed to the E2-195. Note that most of the E2 tender losses were against the A223 (not the A221) which seems to prove this. Note also that KLM did not select the A221/A223 for their Cityhooper fleet keeping the E2 for those and the A320neo for the replacement of their B737s (which are bigger).. Air France, also certianly was lobbed heavily to take the A223 given its ties, together with Airbus, to the French Government - but it is a good order for them regardless.
Overall you could argue either way.
Personally, I feel the E2 is a solid product with a good market share. The A220 killed BBD but it is a great platform for Airbus to develop further as a base for a replacement of the A320 family (A319 & A320)


Thank you, sir, nice analysis of the business side of things, which was the original intention of this topic.

I can see Embraer going back to their core business and avoiding going head to head against A and B: a new regional turboprop, a line of hybrid-electric airplanes for the smal capacity market, investing in eVTOL, drones and the likes.
 
Jetport
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:10 pm

N766UA wrote:
The biggest reason to buy an E2 is availability. A220 production is backed up pretty severely, so if you need a jet now, the E2 might be your only choice.

Otherwise the E2's are still just big RJ's. Narrow cabins, small galleys, cramped cockpits. The E2 that makes the most sense, the 175, is too big for the US market, which is by far its biggest potential application. Having flown both 190s and 220s as a passenger and a pilot, they're not even in the same league.


You are correct, there is no middle seat that is ever better than a window or aisle seat, so the A220 is not in the E190's league from a passenger's perspective. The universally dreaded middle seat, the worst possible way to travel on a commercial aircraft.
 
tullamarine
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:55 pm

The A220 must give Boeing nightmares every time they hear the name. Boeing could have acquired the program from Bombardier but decided on the "nuclear" option attempting to kill off the program. In the end, Airbus acquired the program at peppercorn prices, Boeing had a cancelled engagement with Embraer and is still stuck trying to work out a narrowbody strategy going forward.
 
Opus99
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:06 pm

tullamarine wrote:
The A220 must give Boeing nightmares every time they hear the name. Boeing could have acquired the program from Bombardier but decided on the "nuclear" option attempting to kill off the program. In the end, Airbus acquired the program at peppercorn prices, Boeing had a cancelled engagement with Embraer and is still stuck trying to work out a narrowbody strategy going forward.

I don’t really think it’s giving them nightmares. Great a plane it is. I’d have agreed had you said 321NEO but please.
The 220 or E2 will NOT have solved Boeings narrowbody strategy anyway, Unless you want a 2x2 to be as long as a 787 before you get to the seat count of an a321
 
Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:49 am

Since 2004 1700 E-Jets have been delivered.
 
Jomar777
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:20 am

tullamarine wrote:
The A220 must give Boeing nightmares every time they hear the name. Boeing could have acquired the program from Bombardier but decided on the "nuclear" option attempting to kill off the program. In the end, Airbus acquired the program at peppercorn prices, Boeing had a cancelled engagement with Embraer and is still stuck trying to work out a narrowbody strategy going forward.


Sorry but it does not. What gave (and actually gives) Boeing nightmares are the shortcomings on their production which hampered the B787 and the issues with the B737 MAX MCAS which grounded the aircraft for a long period and tarnished its image. There are a.Neters here that would not set a foot on a MAX (I am not one of them but understand their views).

The A220 needs to generate profit. No point flooding the market with a loss making product. Besides, there's space for both projects since the A220 really is eating away on the A320 product (literally killed the A319 and nobody ever speaks about the A318). Boeing has already moved on from this by concentrating on the MAX 8, MAX 9 and MAX10 with the MAX 7 barely being advertised.

If Boeing gets their act together in regards to their production and standards, they will be fine.

As for Airbus, the main cherry on the A220 is to use the knowhow towards creating ther next product which will ultimately replace the A320 family.
 
JonesNL
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:17 am

Opus99 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
The A220 must give Boeing nightmares every time they hear the name. Boeing could have acquired the program from Bombardier but decided on the "nuclear" option attempting to kill off the program. In the end, Airbus acquired the program at peppercorn prices, Boeing had a cancelled engagement with Embraer and is still stuck trying to work out a narrowbody strategy going forward.

I don’t really think it’s giving them nightmares. Great a plane it is. I’d have agreed had you said 321NEO but please.
The 220 or E2 will NOT have solved Boeings narrowbody strategy anyway, Unless you want a 2x2 to be as long as a 787 before you get to the seat count of an a321


Indeed, volumes are to low to take seriously at the moment. It becomes a "nightmare" if in 2030 the production volumes are at 300-400 per year. And even then it is in the lower end of the market.

The biggest headache is the A321neo and the continued delays with the 737-10...
 
StTim
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:59 am

I love how people here pronounce on the profitability of various products. There are so many ways to measure that so called profitability that it is actually more opaque than most government statistics.

I suspect that Airbus makes no such statements is intended for two audiences. Firstly suppliers - this is why you need to find a way to reduce what you charge. Secondly airlines in that we already give you a good price compared to our costs so we can’t go lower.

I suspect they need to reduce costs and increase production rates (without to much increase in overheads) in order to become a good net contributor to the Airbus company.

Oh and there is probably a third audience - the state of Ottawa (I could have the wrong province - sorry if I do) who are still a major investor.
 
SEU
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:40 am

Does Embraer make any profit per sale on its E2 jets? It was a huge outlay and small number of deliveries?
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:38 pm

SEU wrote:
Does Embraer make any profit per sale on its E2 jets? It was a huge outlay and small number of deliveries?


US$ 1.7bi for three models huge outlay?

Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E-Jet_E2_family
 
M564038
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:01 pm

Jomar777 wrote:

The A220 needs to generate profit. No point flooding the market with a loss making product..


That’s too shallow. If it fits in an eventual strategy that keeps the company strong, it is a success for Airbus.

Meanwhile, even when making losses for Airbus, it makes profits for suppliers, workers, it makes passengers and pilots happy, helps the airlines turn a profit and a million other things. These successes needs to be counted too.

Why do we keep on with this shallow americanized analysis that only count short-term loss or profit for the manufacturer? There’s more to it.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:15 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
SEU wrote:
Does Embraer make any profit per sale on its E2 jets? It was a huge outlay and small number of deliveries?


US$ 1.7bi for three models huge outlay?

Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E-Jet_E2_family

Per Wikipedia, 242 orders:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E-Jet_E2_family


$1.7*10^9/242=$7 million per airframe sold

Now, no doubt Bombardier lost money on the development of the C-series. Both are sunk costs and Bombardier had to sell off the program. We can agree the A220/C-series killed off Bombardier's commercial aviation.

However, what matters is economy of scale. While the E2 has some economy of scale thanks to commonality with the E-jets, Embraer has yet to sell enough E2s for the specific subsystems that are limited to the upgrade (engines, avionics, flight control system) will need more sales for good aftermarket support.

The A220 has it made for economies of scale. Production is high enough production rate (already 30 delivered this year and we are still in the 3rd quarter per Wikipedia, link below) and sales of 774 ensures long term parts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries

Unfortunately, this is a market that cannot support two aircraft above 100 seats but below 150. With Airbus reforming the A220, it does seem like it has already won the battle.


Lightsaber
 
cledaybuck
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:28 pm

StTim wrote:
Oh and there is probably a third audience - the state of Ottawa (I could have the wrong province - sorry if I do) who are still a major investor.

Ottawa is a city (the capital of Canada), which is located in the province of Ontario (barely).
 
cledaybuck
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:32 pm

M564038 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
Why do we keep on with this shallow americanized analysis that only count short-term loss or profit for the manufacturer? There’s more to it.

The long term view is this plane knocked it's first manufacturer out of the commercial airliner market and has never made a profit for it's second owner. It could be a winner down the road in the Airbus product lineup in somewhat the same way as the 787 is for Boeing.
 
StTim
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:49 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
StTim wrote:
Oh and there is probably a third audience - the state of Ottawa (I could have the wrong province - sorry if I do) who are still a major investor.

Ottawa is a city (the capital of Canada), which is located in the province of Ontario (barely).


Thanks - I have a very poor understanding of Canadian geography. :(
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:59 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
StTim wrote:
Oh and there is probably a third audience - the state of Ottawa (I could have the wrong province - sorry if I do) who are still a major investor.

Ottawa is a city (the capital of Canada), which is located in the province of Ontario (barely).

And it's neither that have invested in what is currently known as the A220: Investissement Québec (which is a company of the Government of Quebec) holds 25% of the program (through C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership - CSLAP which became Airbus Canada Limited Partnership).
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:05 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
The A220 must give Boeing nightmares every time they hear the name. Boeing could have acquired the program from Bombardier but decided on the "nuclear" option attempting to kill off the program. In the end, Airbus acquired the program at peppercorn prices, Boeing had a cancelled engagement with Embraer and is still stuck trying to work out a narrowbody strategy going forward.


Sorry but it does not. What gave (and actually gives) Boeing nightmares are the shortcomings on their production which hampered the B787 and the issues with the B737 MAX MCAS which grounded the aircraft for a long period and tarnished its image. There are a.Neters here that would not set a foot on a MAX (I am not one of them but understand their views).

The A220 needs to generate profit. No point flooding the market with a loss making product. Besides, there's space for both projects since the A220 really is eating away on the A320 product (literally killed the A319 and nobody ever speaks about the A318). Boeing has already moved on from this by concentrating on the MAX 8, MAX 9 and MAX10 with the MAX 7 barely being advertised.

If Boeing gets their act together in regards to their production and standards, they will be fine.

As for Airbus, the main cherry on the A220 is to use the knowhow towards creating ther next product which will ultimately replace the A320 family.

The A318 died in the same way the 737-600 did: it was an overweight shrunk variant of an otherwise popular family.
The A319neo sold 87 frames, a drop in the 8,500+ A320neoFamily; but the 737-7 can also be considered a dud, selling 286 frames to only 3 operators, one of which ordered 234 (Southwest Airlines). Neither are successful.
The A220 might have participated in the poor sale of both the A319neo and the 737-7; but it's mainly the fact that, with the new engines, the cost trip of the smaller variants is not much less than the bigger variants all the while offering less revenue.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:10 pm

StTim wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
StTim wrote:
Oh and there is probably a third audience - the state of Ottawa (I could have the wrong province - sorry if I do) who are still a major investor.

Ottawa is a city (the capital of Canada), which is located in the province of Ontario (barely).


Thanks - I have a very poor understanding of Canadian geography. :(



And it’s the Canadian government and the Quebec government and pension fund that “invested” or “subsidized”, depending your spin the program.

Vendor, airline or passenger satisfaction don’t show up on the Airbus P&L for the program. Accounting matters. I still say the C-Series won’t exceed 1,000 deliveries.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:11 pm

Nean1 wrote:
Since 2004 1700 E-Jets have been delivered.

The E2 is quite a change from the E-Jet (redesigned wing, new engines and pylons, landing gear, horizontal stabilizers, a lot of systems and especially the FBW); basically, the fuselage remains and most everything else was changed.
That's a bigger redesign than what Boeing did when they switched from the 737 Classic to the 737NG; do you count them together too?
 
TonyClifton
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:34 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
StTim wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Ottawa is a city (the capital of Canada), which is located in the province of Ontario (barely).


Thanks - I have a very poor understanding of Canadian geography. :(



And it’s the Canadian government and the Quebec government and pension fund that “invested” or “subsidized”, depending your spin the program.

Vendor, airline or passenger satisfaction don’t show up on the Airbus P&L for the program. Accounting matters. I still say the C-Series won’t exceed 1,000 deliveries.

I’m not sure I totally agree. As of now they have “774” orders. Assume a few of the smaller/Russian orders drop out, they are still buoyed with major orders from DL, JB, AF, AC and the like. I don’t think it’s impossible for another 200-300 orders over the lifespan. Add in a -500 and you’ll very closely get those numbers from current customers I bet (I see DL, JB, AF all ordering the -500).
 
LH707330
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:51 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
Since 2004 1700 E-Jets have been delivered.

The E2 is quite a change from the E-Jet (redesigned wing, new engines and pylons, landing gear, horizontal stabilizers, a lot of systems and especially the FBW); basically, the fuselage remains and most everything else was changed.
That's a bigger redesign than what Boeing did when they switched from the 737 Classic to the 737NG; do you count them together too?

Sounds analogous to the 777X: keep the tube, change the rest. Even then, Boeing fiddled with the tube a bit (windows, internal widening). Those are still counted as 777s, no?
 
stratable
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:06 pm

I would think there is enough of a market for both the E2 and the A220. As a Canadian, I am obviously biased toward the A220 from a personal preference standpoint.
It is the more modern platform of the two, and if Airbus can sort out supply chain and production, areas they are experts in, the A220 has a bright future ahead.
The A320 has been around since the late 1980s. Let's see what improvements can be churned out for the A220 over time. There have been updates on the drawing board for a while now,
be it new winglets, landing gear doors, the A220-500. Airbus seems convinced there is a lot of potential in the platform, and who knows how they might leverage A220 designs for the A320 updates or an eventual successor. Demand for new aircraft will continue to grow in the future, and if they can get the A220 as a volume item, lower purchase prices will make the aircraft even more attractive.
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:21 pm

StTim wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
StTim wrote:
Oh and there is probably a third audience - the state of Ottawa (I could have the wrong province - sorry if I do) who are still a major investor.

Ottawa is a city (the capital of Canada), which is located in the province of Ontario (barely).


Thanks - I have a very poor understanding of Canadian geography. :(


The Investor is the Province of Quebec (and Ottawa is on the border between Ontario and Quebec, so you were closer than you think!)
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:29 pm

Otherwise the E2's are still just big RJ's


What's wrong with that. Last time I was on it, wife and I enjoyed enjoined 2 seats, plenty comfortable for a 2-3 hour flight, and nice to board without another 179 fellow travelers.
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:21 pm

LH707330 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
Since 2004 1700 E-Jets have been delivered.

The E2 is quite a change from the E-Jet (redesigned wing, new engines and pylons, landing gear, horizontal stabilizers, a lot of systems and especially the FBW); basically, the fuselage remains and most everything else was changed.
That's a bigger redesign than what Boeing did when they switched from the 737 Classic to the 737NG; do you count them together too?

Sounds analogous to the 777X: keep the tube, change the rest. Even then, Boeing fiddled with the tube a bit (windows, internal widening). Those are still counted as 777s, no?

Both are extensions of the same family. But the vendors for the vast majority of the value of the aircraft have either new product or changed. So from a pilot point of view, the same aircraft. From a maintenance support point of view, it is a new aircraft, but related to the old aircraft (e.g,, how every Airbus or Boeing has some related subsystems).

e.g., original E-jets used Liebherr landing gear: https://www.gopaa.com/wp-content/upload ... -21-15.pdf

new E2 use Embraer landing gear (ELEB), just as the 777 switched landing gear vendors (from Raytheon, was UTC, to tiny little Héroux-Devtek for the 777X):
https://www.gopaa.com/wp-content/upload ... -21-15.pdf
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ding-gear/

But more, now Pratt engines with much more modern FADACs, Collins Avionics, and others have listed other subsystem changes. From a maintenance economy of scale, only hand over parts (e.g., window seals) have commonality and a global distribution of parts. e.g., every nacelle has a custom anti-ice subsystem as well as the e17 ngine will have different features for cabin pressurization and wing anti-ice. This results in a new certification required for the engine overhaul shop.

We had a thread on how engine MRO costs drop DL to accelerate MD-90 retirments:
viewtopic.php?t=1420155

The need for economy of scale has grown. Vendors still need a minimum batch of 25 parts to build or overhaul as the paperwork is so much of the cost of the first 25 it just isn't worth doing a smaller batch each year. I don't have a link, but the 717 survived by the airlines having to buy extra spare parts and just wait until each vendor had enough parts in stock to do overhauls as there just wan't enough in service to schedule an annual (or more, say with the CFM-56 they must do multiple batches per year because of the enormous volume). This is cost.

Wikipedia has 241 orders for the E2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E ... deliveries

Most stuff on an aircraft has two (two engines, backup pumps, that sort of thing). So 482 items (or more, we don't worry about the items that have more) with an overhaul every 7 to 10 years. That is good, 48 per year. But what about solo items (e.g., the infamous "doggie warmer" of the MD-80)? Not quite enough for a batch per year, so the vendor will go to every 15 months. So one spare part needed per about 7 aircraft.

Compare that to the A220. 774 orders or 1548 overhauls over 7 to 10 years or call it 155 overhauls a year. You will do a batch annually. but that is it. So one spare part needed for every 10 aircraft.

The CFM-56 has two overhauls per year, so an airline only needs one spare part for every 20 aircraft. For small airlines, it becomes cheaper to rent spare parts instead of buying them. While not a huge overall cost, this is a cost savings that is going to inhibit sales. This is why airlines like to see sales of over a thousand for a type, ideally over 2000, the minimum for twice per year overhauls.

At this point, servicing the E2 jets is only viable because they remain in production due to the mere 55 delivered so far (per Wikipedia, small changes in numbers do not matter). Embraer must sell another 159 E2-190/195 to give customers confidence in long term spare parts costs and availability at a minimum level. Airbus must sell another 1,229 to obligate vendors to a twice per year overhaul schedule as spare parts will be in enough demand after year 2025 deliveries of already ordered aircraft. :spin:

Personally, I am sad how few orders for this size range happened this year. I speculate Pratt's inability to deliver engines to Airbus, in a spat that has gone public, is hurting A220 sales. Note: It might also hurt a large E2 sale, but I am not aware of any likely large E2 order.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstor ... r-AA129m4g

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Nean1
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:56 pm

Embraer has already shown that it is a survivor and that it can produce economically even if the production rate of the E1 and E2 lines combined is only 5 units per month. By the way, both families are produced in the same factory, where the future EMB TP E3 will also be produced.

Having 1700 aircraft producing with a large part still flying helps a lot in terms of using manpower, whether in maintenance or in terms of the number of trained pilots.

The E2 family has proven to be reliable and economical and the engine technology chosen (PW) was an obvious hit, although it was not happy in the case of the 175E2.

Let's see how the future competitiveness of European industry will look. An impartial observer should not be at ease.
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:50 pm

It will be interesting to see.
Embraer peaked at 14 E-jets per month back in 2007: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military ... emb170.htm
I agree they would be doing well if the delivery rate increased. They only delivered 11 commercial aircraft in 2Q2022: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military ... emb170.htm
Only six in the first quarter of 2022: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-release ... 34953.html
Total commercial in 2021 of 48 commercial aircraft.
https://esg.embraer.com/global/en/asset ... 021_EN.pdf

The A220 delivered 50 A220 in 2021 (1st link).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries

A220 production is supposed to be at rate 6 now, but that Wikipedia link isn't showing the rate I expected. 30 in 9 months is very shy of expectations. I would have expected 40+ with a 4th quarter surge. Cest la vie.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-57266090

But what matters is parts commonality for maintenance. Production matters for sales price. But vendors are overloaded right now. They really do not want smaller than 25 orders. For long term maintenance, Embraer must sell more. I hope they do. However, at this time the A220 has enough orders for long term maintenance of the fleet and the E2s just do not (please see my prior post).

The E2-175, like the MRJ (which had other issues, like ignoring wiring regulations) both ignored the 86,000lb MTOW rule of scope clause.
Of the 820 active E170/175, 692 are under scope (some a little higher scope, but not much). 84% of the market needs scope compliance. Not designing for that by stretching the wing and fusalage is, in my opinion, not the engine's fault. I believe Embraer could have made a scope compliant E2-175 with the Pratts. Not doing so is on them. (Same with Mitsubishi not going early with scope compliant and listening to experts on wiring.)
Link on active E-jets:
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-e170.htm


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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:59 pm

Porter's order for at least 50 E2s is definitely a huge boost and may prompt others to follow suit, but many big E90/E95 customers are already lost to the A220 (e.g., AC, B6). Embraer are so lucky the E1 will sell for as long as the scope weight limits don't change = lucky for the E2 that shares a lot of commonality.
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:55 am

M564038 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:

The A220 needs to generate profit. No point flooding the market with a loss making product..


That’s too shallow. If it fits in an eventual strategy that keeps the company strong, it is a success for Airbus.

Meanwhile, even when making losses for Airbus, it makes profits for suppliers, workers, it makes passengers and pilots happy, helps the airlines turn a profit and a million other things. These successes needs to be counted too.

Why do we keep on with this shallow americanized analysis that only count short-term loss or profit for the manufacturer? There’s more to it.


It is not shallow. It is a FACT. Why do you think the B717 is no more? And the Concorde? Obviously Airbus bought the program because it was cheap for them and it is a very good starting point on planning for a replacement of the A320 family. If that was not the case, you might argue that Airbus would pass this over too and the CS Project would be dead in the water.

As much as a project might do well for their customers, if it is not ultimately profitable, it is bound to go down in the end.
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:03 am

Jomar777 wrote:
M564038 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:

The A220 needs to generate profit. No point flooding the market with a loss making product..


That’s too shallow. If it fits in an eventual strategy that keeps the company strong, it is a success for Airbus.

Meanwhile, even when making losses for Airbus, it makes profits for suppliers, workers, it makes passengers and pilots happy, helps the airlines turn a profit and a million other things. These successes needs to be counted too.

Why do we keep on with this shallow americanized analysis that only count short-term loss or profit for the manufacturer? There’s more to it.


It is not shallow. It is a FACT. Why do you think the B717 is no more? And the Concorde? Obviously Airbus bought the program because it was cheap for them and it is a very good starting point on planning for a replacement of the A320 family. If that was not the case, you might argue that Airbus would pass this over too and the CS Project would be dead in the water.

As much as a project might do well for their customers, if it is not ultimately profitable, it is bound to go down in the end.



I would like to hear why B717(MD95)/Concorde are no more. Tell us. Tell us how they compare to the A220. I'm in for a good laugh
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:07 pm

godsbeloved wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
M564038 wrote:

That’s too shallow. If it fits in an eventual strategy that keeps the company strong, it is a success for Airbus.

Meanwhile, even when making losses for Airbus, it makes profits for suppliers, workers, it makes passengers and pilots happy, helps the airlines turn a profit and a million other things. These successes needs to be counted too.

Why do we keep on with this shallow americanized analysis that only count short-term loss or profit for the manufacturer? There’s more to it.


It is not shallow. It is a FACT. Why do you think the B717 is no more? And the Concorde? Obviously Airbus bought the program because it was cheap for them and it is a very good starting point on planning for a replacement of the A320 family. If that was not the case, you might argue that Airbus would pass this over too and the CS Project would be dead in the water.

As much as a project might do well for their customers, if it is not ultimately profitable, it is bound to go down in the end.



I would like to hear why B717(MD95)/Concorde are no more. Tell us. Tell us how they compare to the A220. I'm in for a good laugh


Actually if you think about it the 100-130 seat market sucks.

The 128 seat Concorde was too expensive, the cseries offered range nobody needed for that capacity, the 717 offered insufficient range but the cycle capability, the short performance versions of the 320/737 are no longer needed so it’s best to go 321/739/73M. The E Jet is more attractive outsourced which requires scope compliance. I swear any United hub is full of those jets and I’ll take them any day over a CRJ or 221.

Nobody got that market right. They all just poked at it from different directions.
Last edited by Babyshark on Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Babyshark
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:14 pm

also the 220 is not a replacement for the 320.

Why would airbus use a too narrow 2008 design with unreliable systems to replace the popular and profitable 320neo?

I’m sure the people who designed and built the 320/330/340/350/380 have their own ideas of what they want to do next in the massive 320/321 market.
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:54 pm

From Turkish Airlines' point of view, I see the A220-300 as a much better fit for the fleet. One mustn't forget that TK is primarily looking for a model for building a new regional fleet. But at the same time, there will be 6 A319-132 and 11 A320-232 to be replaced in the foreseeable future, so the A220 is a better fit for the fleet.

And if you consider the desired model of some airlines, the A220-500, the solution from Airbus results in a far more interesting solution for supplementing or replacing the TK fleet. (in particular, some 737-800 and the mentioned A319/A320).
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:24 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
There's so many angles & premises you can apply to this which makes one or another a winner.
Firstly, in regards to the project per se, Embraer won. The CS Project (as originally created) sent BBD to the ropes and nearly finished the company (even though it received so many subsidies from everywhere...).
But then, as an Airbus project, you could say that, hands down, Airbus won on this one since it acquired by a nominal fee a project where it did not spend any significant R&D and which, with their infrastructure from production to sales, could very successfuly be commercialized everywhere. The amount of orders overall speak for itself.
Yet, whilst most of the E2s that leave the factory are profit making (Embraer has no way in acquiring such losses for a program as Airbus - it would go BBD way if it even tried to sell at cost in such large scale), neither BBD (before...) nor Airbus (now...) are making any profit on the sales. Soo many orders with no profit whatsoever! No need to discuss the winner here if you take this view.
But then, if you consider performance and capacity, the A223 is nothing else but a direct competitor to the A319 as much as a soo dreamed of A225 would be to the A320. It is the A221 which competes direclty with the E2 and it is only against the E2-195, the biggest of the project. Compared, the E2 has more orders than the A221 and ALL of them are profitable ones contrary to Airbus' ones. So, whilst the A223 simply put a nail in the coffin of the A319, the A221 did not manage to finish with the E2 project. In surmise, Airbus killed one of it is own portfolio item instead of killing a competitor.
Yet, you may argue that Airbus strategy made a successful case in making airlines like Qantas and Air France, for example, to upgauge their regional fleets so that it could pitch the A223 more successfully rather than risk having the A221 exposed to the E2-195. Note that most of the E2 tender losses were against the A223 (not the A221) which seems to prove this. Note also that KLM did not select the A221/A223 for their Cityhooper fleet keeping the E2 for those and the A320neo for the replacement of their B737s (which are bigger).. Air France, also certianly was lobbed heavily to take the A223 given its ties, together with Airbus, to the French Government - but it is a good order for them regardless.
Overall you could argue either way.
Personally, I feel the E2 is a solid product with a good market share. The A220 killed BBD but it is a great platform for Airbus to develop further as a base for a replacement of the A320 family (A319 & A320)


A lot of things in commercial aviation are like that.

To me the A220 is one of the most beautiful airplanes ever. The E-170 platform is a good concept, but like the A340, I consider the revision to be a failure. It is very true that sometimes, a product like L-1011 can be an engineering and design triumph while being an industrial failure. I think the 737 is an example of something that’s an industrial success but a lazy piece of engineering. Which I respect, when it is done right.

So you are right that “greatest airplane” is not the same thing as “best profit for manufacturer.”
 
docmtl
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:10 pm

Last August, Lehman News Analysis discussed the issue of profitability for the A-220 line. Airbus would've raised the sales price of the A-220 from $33 million to around $40 million due to difficulties in renegotiating cost with suppliers (especially Raytheon and P&W). It as assumed Airbus would need to sell 1,200 frames to reach break-even (would that figure include sunk cost already shed by Bombardier in the past ? not stated...).

https://leehamnews.com/2022/08/15/airbu ... -continue/

Due to the success of the A-220 and the size of the 100-150 seat market, I'm wondering what percentage of this market would the E2 family grab (20%, 30%) in order to remain competitive in the long run.

docmtl
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:33 pm

docmtl wrote:
Last August, Lehman News Analysis discussed the issue of profitability for the A-220 line. Airbus would've raised the sales price of the A-220 from $33 million to around $40 million due to difficulties in renegotiating cost with suppliers (especially Raytheon and P&W). It as assumed Airbus would need to sell 1,200 frames to reach break-even (would that figure include sunk cost already shed by Bombardier in the past ? not stated...).

https://leehamnews.com/2022/08/15/airbu ... -continue/

Due to the success of the A-220 and the size of the 100-150 seat market, I'm wondering what percentage of this market would the E2 family grab (20%, 30%) in order to remain competitive in the long run.

docmtl

I wonder how accurate the numbers are. I noted in the link, the cost of the A220 is $24 million. The cost with corporate overhead is $33 million.

Airbus might try for $40 million, but this is negotiating. I'm certain Raytheon will lower pricing with volume. I estimate the cost to develop a competing engine in the billions, so I do not expect it to happen.

Airbus just sold 6 more A220, so it is possible to sell (to Croatian). Link to discussion thread:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468483

Since that link, 112 orders in 2022 for the A220 (Croatia hasn't made wiki, yet). So somehow the A220 keeps selling. To Delta, Qantas, Croatian,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... deliveries

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3163 ... %20engines.

If the E2 sold 112 this year, we would be ecstatic. As to what sales, it is establishing economy of scale.

Croatia is looking to become a single type opperator by 2026. To myself that implies also taking on leased A220s.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/c ... 22.article

The next big competition is from Ethiopian. While the link is quoting favoring the A220, I consider it still a competition.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/e ... r-AA12kmy2

Lightsaber
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:41 pm

According to Turkish media, it is reported that tomorrow at the Istanbul Airshow Embraer will announce two orders for the Embraer E195-E2. The first new customer for the E2 is Royal Jordanian.
The second, which is wildly speculated, but the signs are very clear, Turkish Airlines (to my chagrin).

I still have hope that Embraer could announce the second order for LOT Polish Airlines.

A ray of hope, alongside the Embraer E195-E2, the Airbus A220-300 will be on display at the Istanbul Airshow, which starts tomorrow.
Last edited by TKflyer on Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:45 pm

Wow, pulling Turkish to the E2 would be a huge get.
 
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Re: A220 vs E-195E2 2022 update: Market battle already won by Airbus ?

Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:01 pm

TKflyer wrote:
From Turkish Airlines' point of view, I see the A220-300 as a much better fit for the fleet. One mustn't forget that TK is primarily looking for a model for building a new regional fleet. But at the same time, there will be 6 A319-132 and 11 A320-232 to be replaced in the foreseeable future, so the A220 is a better fit for the fleet.

And if you consider the desired model of some airlines, the A220-500, the solution from Airbus results in a far more interesting solution for supplementing or replacing the TK fleet. (in particular, some 737-800 and the mentioned A319/A320).


IF an A220-500 ever gets build, I start to not believe it ... The A320 and 737-800 can be easily replaced by A320neo and/or MAX8, the A319 can be replaced by the E195E2 or both E2 and A319neo or MAX7, if a 1:1 replacement is even needed.
If they search for a Regional Jet the A220 clearly is too big. Only the smaller, not very popular A220-100 could be considered a (big) Regional Jet. The E2 on the other hand has a much better range of capacity perfectly fitting below the A32X and 737, also available in sizes where the A220 is not available, where THY would have to add yet another aircraft Type if they, for example, need a 100 seater or even a 80 seater. The E2 covers all that.

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