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kaitak
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Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:21 pm

Hello everyone and welcome to a new thread. September was an interesting month with several positive developments:

- Aer Lingus launched DUB-CLE, 4w, from next year. No doubt there will be more to come, with DEN and BUF rumoured, as well as a return to BDL. possibly MSP as well.
- Vueling began its SNN-ORY route
- Hi Sky increases Romanian routes as Blue Air collapses (rumoured restart on 10 Oct now looks unlikely)
- MAN based EI A321 Neo returning to DUB; looks like the two MAN based A333s will also be returning and rumours of EI seeking more A330s from QR.
- 1.5m pax in August; second busiest month since 2019
- FR to add 2,000 jobs in Ireland
- QR to increase to 11 flights wkly during winter
- More ATRs for Emerald, with 'FAT and 'FAV returning
- EI IT issues in early September
- EI's new A320 Neos finally arrived and have started ops
- More FR Maxes arriving thick and fast
- ASL Aviation announces healthy profits for last financial year

Winter, as I said, is coming and with increased energy costs, the UK economy not doing terribly well, not to mention one Mr. V Putin causing continued strife in Ukraine, it is likely that rising costs (of energy, particularly) will hit discretionary spending. Let's hope not, but reality suggests that aviation will suffer and that 2023 will see recession. That said, it should not be as bad as the last one, back in the late noughties.

Here's a link to the last thread, should anyone want to refer back., viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1476247
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:30 pm

Thanks for a new thread.

CLE will be either hit or miss. The test will be if it is still around in 2 years time when the incentives run out.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:28 pm

I find it interesting and welcome that the Shannon-Boston flight remains through the winter, as it has before.
 
AMP44
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:47 pm

EI is closing down their Belfast crew base in November. Possible comeback in April if ‘paperwork’ is sorted (under Aer Lingus (U.K.) Limited?). Crew have been offered long haul flights from Dublin to allow them to commute from Belfast.

Emerald to remain unaffected but with the same issue of not having a UK AOC to be able to do Belfast to GB flights in the future.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:13 pm

Emerald took almost two yesrs to be formed and become operational. Why did.they.not apply for the UK AOC early in their set up period. For both EI and Emerald it all looks shoddy and second rate.
 
iRISH251
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:47 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Emerald took almost two yesrs to be formed and become operational. Why did.they.not apply for the UK AOC early in their set up period. For both EI and Emerald it all looks shoddy and second rate.


I am only an observer, but getting an Irish AOC was the primary objective, I imagine. Getting a UK one is more than a paper exercise. A new company has to be set up, compliant with UK company law and all other regulatory requirements there. Other than Ryanair and Aer Lingus, how many EU operators have considered it worthwhile to follow this route and become involved the UK domestic market, which has seen a multiplicity of operators come and go over the years? I can't think of any off the top of my head.
 
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shamrock350
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:16 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Emerald took almost two yesrs to be formed and become operational. Why did.they.not apply for the UK AOC early in their set up period. For both EI and Emerald it all looks shoddy and second rate.

This completely misrepresents the situation with regards to Emerald’s operations. Emerald was originally due to launch in January 2023 for Aer Lingus Regional and preparations were underway for that launch date when Stobart suddenly collapsed in Summer 2021. Under incredible circumstances, Emerald was able to accelerate its plans and launch in February 2022, almost a full year ahead of the previous plan.

Emerald *has* applied for a UK AOC, this was done late last year but is currently a much longer process. The airline has secured working solutions as a stopgap so can do nothing more than wait for the relevant authorities to complete their processes.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:15 pm

Stobart had no where to go once EI announced exclusive talks with Emerald. And I recognise that Stobart finances were a mess. I'm surprised at the suggestion that getting an Irish AOC is simply a paper exercise and Emerald talked about UK operatiins early on. ORK is a missed opportunity I think? It would be great, but just a dream, to see Emerald flying all over Ireland and the UK, even near Europe
Just a thought!
 
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AmricanShamrok
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:40 pm

Fliplot wrote:
ORK is a missed opportunity I think?

FR was very quick to step in and fill the gaps when RE collapsed, and they effectively replaced most, if not all, former RE routes at ORK, SNN and even KIR. I think FR will deploy their known aggressive tactics if EA tries to establish ops at any other Irish airport outside of DUB and BHD.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:01 am

Looks like Emerald have won in the battle on the BHD - SOU route. Eastern have cancelled flights from mid October onwards. While its a shame to see a small carrier like this
go they really did not offer a reliable or cost effective way to get from BHD-SOU and the public have voted with their feet it seems.

---

A PLANNING APPLICATION for Dublin’s Metrolink has been submitted.

https://www.thejournal.ie/planning-appl ... 0-Sep2022/

Paddy Power taking bets on when we will actually see DUB connected by rail. 2030 is optimistic.
 
nickya340
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:22 am

OA260 wrote:
Looks like Emerald have won in the battle on the BHD - SOU route. Eastern have cancelled flights from mid October onwards. While its a shame to see a small carrier like this
go they really did not offer a reliable or cost effective way to get from BHD-SOU and the public have voted with their feet it seems.


---

A PLANNING APPLICATION for Dublin’s Metrolink has been submitted.

https://www.thejournal.ie/planning-appl ... 0-Sep2022/

Paddy Power taking bets on when we will actually see DUB connected by rail. 2030 is optimistic.



Not surprised, anytime I’d look at eastern from BHD to SOU or CWL it would always be about £90+. Although new to the routes, EI would be maybe £40.
Flybe slightly more.
 
shamrock321
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:27 pm

Do we know for sure that the 321LR G-EIRH is returning to DUB? The MAN-JFK flight is still showing as being operated by this type next summer…
 
Avoation1091
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:56 pm

I doubt the website is updated now. Changes still to be made on it id say. DUB-EWR reportedly supposed to be going to 330 as well. From a reliable source.
 
Eitilt
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:57 pm

Manchester- JFK is supposed to upgrade to an A330 from April 2023 with 2x A330’s based at Manchester.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:32 pm

AMP44 wrote:
EI is closing down their Belfast crew base in November. Possible comeback in April if ‘paperwork’ is sorted (under Aer Lingus (U.K.) Limited?). Crew have been offered long haul flights from Dublin to allow them to commute from Belfast.

Emerald to remain unaffected but with the same issue of not having a UK AOC to be able to do Belfast to GB flights in the future.


Whilst to a certain degree there is an 'excuse' for Emerald (although a very weak one), there can be none for EI. They have been flying from Belfast for 14-odd years, and have known about Brexit since 2016 so why has this alleged 'paperwork' not been done?
 
iRISH251
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 4:31 pm

Vicenza wrote:
AMP44 wrote:
EI is closing down their Belfast crew base in November. Possible comeback in April if ‘paperwork’ is sorted (under Aer Lingus (U.K.) Limited?). Crew have been offered long haul flights from Dublin to allow them to commute from Belfast.

Emerald to remain unaffected but with the same issue of not having a UK AOC to be able to do Belfast to GB flights in the future.


Whilst to a certain degree there is an 'excuse' for Emerald (although a very weak one), there can be none for EI. They have been flying from Belfast for 14-odd years, and have known about Brexit since 2016 so why has this alleged 'paperwork' not been done?


Maybe it is not worth their while. However I doubt you will find anyone from EI spilling the beans on this forum in relation to commercial decisions.
 
Avoation1091
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:24 pm

Agree with the above poster maybe it wasnt worth there while having a base at BHD. They closed SNN base with 3 main routes and they kept the base at BHD with one route.

Hopefully both bases can be opened again in the future. Best of luck to BHD staff. Good oppurtunity for long haul at DUB
 
Vicenza
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:31 pm

iRISH251 wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
AMP44 wrote:
EI is closing down their Belfast crew base in November. Possible comeback in April if ‘paperwork’ is sorted (under Aer Lingus (U.K.) Limited?). Crew have been offered long haul flights from Dublin to allow them to commute from Belfast.

Emerald to remain unaffected but with the same issue of not having a UK AOC to be able to do Belfast to GB flights in the future.


Whilst to a certain degree there is an 'excuse' for Emerald (although a very weak one), there can be none for EI. They have been flying from Belfast for 14-odd years, and have known about Brexit since 2016 so why has this alleged 'paperwork' not been done?


Maybe it is not worth their while. However I doubt you will find anyone from EI spilling the beans on this forum in relation to commercial decisions.


Possibly indeed and a fair enough business decision. It allows many people from NI to also take a 'business decision', me included.
 
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shamrock350
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:18 pm

Aer Lingus already has its own UK AOC with Aer Lingus UK, which is actually based in Belfast. If they really wanted to or saw worth in it, they could quite easily move a couple of A320s to the British register and continue BHD-LHR uninterrupted for the foreseeable. The problem they face is that would limit those particular aircraft to a single route when under the current arrangement, and of course pre-Brexit, the aircraft could be regularly rotated throughout the network as is standard for the airline and its utilisation.

While the route is obviously a good performer, it would be difficult for any airline to justify the additional costs for such a small part of their business. Even Ryanair, with its much larger UK operation and much bigger scope for future growth, was incredibly reluctant to assign multiple aircraft to their newly created UK subsidiary.

It would be a shame to see it go but without a long term workable solution that doesn’t limit the aircraft in such a way moving them to the British register would, I don’t see how it can continue.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:57 pm

Pragmatic and informative comment - thank you. It also points to a business decision by EI. BA can take the slack.
Maybe its time to give EI some credit and see what happens iver the next 6 months.
 
Allanc1987
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:01 pm

I have noticed that EI-GZY on jethroseu is on UK AOC and is registered G-CMJN

on caa g-info G-CMJN was registered 30th Sep

looks possible that Emerald Airlines UK might start at the end of the month

as C of A Issue is 5th Oct




I think in future Emerald could fly UK to UK flights for BA? With ATR's Painted in Full BA Colours.
 
iRISH251
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:50 pm

Allanc1987 wrote:
I have noticed that EI-GZY on jethroseu is on UK AOC and is registered G-CMJN

on caa g-info G-CMJN was registered 30th Sep

looks possible that Emerald Airlines UK might start at the end of the month

as C of A Issue is 5th Oct




I think in future Emerald could fly UK to UK flights for BA? With ATR's Painted in Full BA Colours.


And note the operator:

"EMERALD AIRLINES UK LTD
6B UPPER WATER STREET
NEWRY"
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:00 am

iRISH251 wrote:
Allanc1987 wrote:
I have noticed that EI-GZY on jethroseu is on UK AOC and is registered G-CMJN

on caa g-info G-CMJN was registered 30th Sep

looks possible that Emerald Airlines UK might start at the end of the month

as C of A Issue is 5th Oct




I think in future Emerald could fly UK to UK flights for BA? With ATR's Painted in Full BA Colours.


And note the operator:

"EMERALD AIRLINES UK LTD
6B UPPER WATER STREET
NEWRY"


Thats Holdfast Ltd offices which handle company registrations. They have been doing a lot of work with Irish companies recently looking to have a base in NI / GB.
 
richcandy
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:28 am

Sorry..I am a bit out of touch with the industry news.

What happens with regards to EI's LHR-BHD services will they end until such times as EI gets a UK AOC?

Alex
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:16 am

shamrock350 wrote:
BHD-LHR ... While the route is obviously a good performer, it would be difficult for any airline to justify the additional costs for such a small part of their business.

It's a shame they never looked to grow beyond just one route at BHD (excluding Emerald) - there are still no links between Northern Ireland and a number of major European cities/hubs, like FCO, FRA, MAD, etc - and of course nothing to NYC, following UA's withdrawal. But it's understandable that, with limited resources, they've decided to re-prioritise.
 
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shamrock350
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:52 am

richcandy wrote:
Sorry..I am a bit out of touch with the industry news.

What happens with regards to EI's LHR-BHD services will they end until such times as EI gets a UK AOC?

Alex

Aer Lingus already has a UK AOC, it’s why they’re able to operate a transatlantic base from Manchester so could quite easily move A320s to it for BHD if they wished but this limits those aircraft to a small part of their business. Not ideal and something they’ve been avoiding.

Looks like the route will end over winter with BA taking over.
 
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AmricanShamrok
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:43 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
shamrock350 wrote:
BHD-LHR ... While the route is obviously a good performer, it would be difficult for any airline to justify the additional costs for such a small part of their business.

It's a shame they never looked to grow beyond just one route at BHD (excluding Emerald) - there are still no links between Northern Ireland and a number of major European cities/hubs, like FCO, FRA, MAD, etc - and of course nothing to NYC, following UA's withdrawal. But it's understandable that, with limited resources, they've decided to re-prioritise.

When EI set up the BFS base in 2008, they seemed focused on major European cities like AMS, BCN, FCO, GVA, BUD etc. but that strategy didn't seem to work for them. By the time they crossed over to BHD in 2012, their focus had changed to mainly sun destinations like LPA, ACE, AGP, ALC etc. Over time, their mainline ops reduced to BHD-LGW (long since terminated) and BHD-LHR. The slow demise of their Belfast venture is unfortunate, but good to see they'll still have a brand presence there in the form of EI Regional/EA.

--

On an unrelated note, I wonder would EI consider a seasonal 2x weekly SNN-ORD route using the existing-based 32Qs. This would mean both SNN-BOS and SNN-JFK would reduce to 6x weekly each (JFK certainly was 6x weekly before COVID). This would probably qualify for new route incentives from SNN also.
 
ddaly241
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:55 pm

Hello everyone, this is my first time on this thread. Is it possible that DUB should build a third terminal? I’ve seen proposals about it especially with the increase number of passengers over the last few months.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:46 pm

Should they.build an additional terminal or tidy up what they already have? Could they agg an affitional floor to terminal D? Could they turn Terminal D in to a T or L shape, or add an octagonal?
 
nickya340
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:37 pm

Yes, I think for now additional stands/ expansion at T2 are needed for morning and afternoon transatlantic flights as it gets very congested especially in peak summer.

I wonder what airlines would use the 3rd terminal? T1 is Ryanair+ euro carriers and T2 is EI and American carriers for pre-clearance. A third terminal would be nice for CTA and Irish arrivals so a domestic terminal.
 
HTCone
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:10 pm

I think the next step is to build a new hangar complex down abeam the 10L threshold, flatten hangars 1-5 and extend pier D eastward. Extending pier B was also on the cards before the decision to close 16/34 was reversed. The tunnel under 16/34 will increase the number of remote stands available.
 
ddaly241
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:14 pm

nickya340 wrote:
Yes, I think for now additional stands/ expansion at T2 are needed for morning and afternoon transatlantic flights as it gets very congested especially in peak summer.

I wonder what airlines would use the 3rd terminal? T1 is Ryanair+ euro carriers and T2 is EI and American carriers for pre-clearance. A third terminal would be nice for CTA and Irish arrivals so a domestic terminal.


Here’s the thing to compare DUB to my home airport, EWR. EWR has little space to expand unless they demolish everything, while DUB has expansion opportunities. My point is that with a few opportunities for expansion at DUB is easier than expanding at EWR, it’s best if they could, one, expand the terminals they have, two, they build a third terminal on the west side, or they can do both if passengers growth is crazily growing. Especially EI in my opinion should have their own terminal to grow, just like United has their own terminal C at EWR. This is my idea, I don’t know what you all think, but I guess will see what the Daa do in the next few years.
 
YUAND
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:38 pm

I'm open to being corrected here but would I be right in saying that DUB's issue is stand capacity rather than the terminals being too small? Obviously if relatively high growth continues for the next 10-20 years, terminal capacity would be an issue but I feel like stand capacity is the more immediate problem.

To that end, I feel like the cost of building a mid-field terminal complex would prevent that from happening immediately. Long-term I feel like a mid-field complex with a LHR style 'toast rack' layout should replace the current terminal area, but in the immediate future a 'Pier F' where the current Aer Lingus temporary structure is would make more sense in addition to extending Pier D eastwards as was noted above.

Hindsight is great but I would have agreed with views back in the 2000s that the DAA backed itself into a corner by putting T2 where it did. But when finances are considered I don't think they were necessarily left with much choice, especially with the crash happening shortly after the decision to build was made.
 
LH982
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:00 pm

The land west of 16/34 was originally tied up with the McEvaddy brothers, so this proposed terminal would not have been DAA managed. DAA went for T2 in it's present position because this was land they controlled. The shortcomings of the location were obvious at the time of the build.

Moving the hangars would be the most obvious next move, but I've no idea of the financial ramifications of such a move.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:50 pm

nickya340 wrote:
Yes, I think for now additional stands/ expansion at T2 are needed for morning and afternoon transatlantic flights as it gets very congested especially in peak summer.

I wonder what airlines would use the 3rd terminal? T1 is Ryanair+ euro carriers and T2 is EI and American carriers for pre-clearance. A third terminal would be nice for CTA and Irish arrivals so a domestic terminal.


I think a LCC terminal to be used by FR and other non interlining carriers might work but I think splitting CTA into a different terminal would be a pain especially compared to the current set up at T2 where a large amount of GB traffic connects to TATL . Better to keep it T2-T2 .
 
iRISH251
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:01 pm

LH982 wrote:
The land west of 16/34 was originally tied up with the McEvaddy brothers, so this proposed terminal would not have been DAA managed. DAA went for T2 in it's present position because this was land they controlled. The shortcomings of the location were obvious at the time of the build.

Moving the hangars would be the most obvious next move, but I've no idea of the financial ramifications of such a move.


Are the McEvaddys no longer in possession of those lands? I hadn't heard anything to the contrary.
 
JAmie2k9
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:45 pm

I see Aer Lingus website now allows you search for Cork/Shannon-Paris ORY and directs to Vueling. They also show other Vueling routes not originating in Ireland. Full list of routes via the below site.

Can only be a good thing for Cork/Shannon if they were ever to expand from either airport.

https://partners.aerlingus.com/#/
 
LH982
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:15 pm

iRISH251 wrote:
LH982 wrote:
The land west of 16/34 was originally tied up with the McEvaddy brothers, so this proposed terminal would not have been DAA managed. DAA went for T2 in it's present position because this was land they controlled. The shortcomings of the location were obvious at the time of the build.

Moving the hangars would be the most obvious next move, but I've no idea of the financial ramifications of such a move.


Are the McEvaddys no longer in possession of those lands? I hadn't heard anything to the contrary.


They still owned 130+ acres a few years ago, so I expect nothing has changed
 
ELBOB
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:41 pm

shamrock350 wrote:
Emerald was originally due to launch in January 2023 for Aer Lingus Regional and preparations were underway for that launch date when Stobart suddenly collapsed in Summer 2021. Under incredible circumstances, Emerald was able to accelerate its plans and launch in February 2022, almost a full year ahead of the previous plan.


Aer Lingus started negotiations with Emerald in April 2021; negotiations with an airline which was just a name, had no aircraft, no AOC and no crews but which was the heir apparent for a 10-year contract. Basically pulled the carpet out from under Stobart and left them with no options because they'd put all their eggs in the Aer Lingus basket. Stobart collapsed in June 2021 and Emerald was awarded a 10-year contract in August 2021, with no competitive tender.
 
Fliplot
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:43 pm

As I said at the time the whole Stobart had nothing to re-finance! Anyway water under the bridge.
FR have their own terminal, D, so better to expand that. Anything midfield will be expensive to build for sure.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:01 pm

Fliplot wrote:
Should they.build an additional terminal or tidy up what they already have?

And/or open Baldonnell to some commercial flights?
 
YUAND
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:32 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Fliplot wrote:
Should they.build an additional terminal or tidy up what they already have?

And/or open Baldonnell to some commercial flights?


For cost as well as aircraft noise reasons I think that is a non starter. It would more than likely involve a scenario where either EI or FR move pretty much all their ops which would require Baldonell to be significantly expanded. Since expansion is required anyway, why not just do it at DUB?

As for midfield vs tidying up what they already have, an issue I can see becoming a sticking point, particularly if EI does expand TATL ops significantly is the size of the area after US pre clearance and associated stand capacity. Is it sufficient to handle growth for the next 10+ years? What solutions could be found for this potential issue if they stick to tidying up what they already have?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:43 am

YUAND wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Fliplot wrote:
Should they.build an additional terminal or tidy up what they already have?

And/or open Baldonnell to some commercial flights?


For cost as well as aircraft noise reasons I think that is a non starter.

They could just limit it to prop flights if noise is an issue, and to UK/Common Travel Area flights to reduce infrastructure/service costs. It could develop from there.
 
LH982
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:59 am

planemanofnz wrote:
YUAND wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
And/or open Baldonnell to some commercial flights?


For cost as well as aircraft noise reasons I think that is a non starter.

They could just limit it to prop flights if noise is an issue, and to UK/Common Travel Area flights to reduce infrastructure/service costs. It could develop from there.


It makes no sense at all. EI would never use it, as they are trying to build a transfer hub at Dublin. For FR it's not big enough, has no facilities, a short runway, and would cause war with the residents of South Dublin.

Dublin has lots of space if it's needed. The only blocking points are politics and self interest.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:11 am

LH982 wrote:
EI would never use it, as they are trying to build a transfer hub at Dublin. For FR it's not big enough, has no facilities, a short runway ...

Perhaps it could first have potential for the likes of FlyBe, LoganAir, Aurigny, and a few Emerald flights.

Also, isn't one of the runways already 1,800m+ there (10/28), so capable of handling 737/320 flights?

It could spur competition with the DAA, and build longer-term resilience into Irish aviation infrastructure.

It's near a significant number of business parks (with time sensitive travellers), and is a greenfield area.

Countless similar-sized catchments have more than one commercial airport - GLA, WAW, BRU, etc.

Community concern could be managed with pax caps, aircraft restrictions, night curfews, etc - like BHD.
 
Jake801
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:43 pm

Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:34 am

AmricanShamrok wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
shamrock350 wrote:
BHD-LHR ... While the route is obviously a good performer, it would be difficult for any airline to justify the additional costs for such a small part of their business.

--
On an unrelated note, I wonder would EI consider a seasonal 2x weekly SNN-ORD route using the existing-based 32Qs. This would mean both SNN-BOS and SNN-JFK would reduce to 6x weekly each (JFK certainly was 6x weekly before COVID). This would probably qualify for new route incentives from SNN also.


The old SNN-ORD debate. Its a real pity UA couldn't make it work on their last outing, intuitively you would think its the natural 3rd city for Shannon (rather than EWR or PHL) but I often wonder is the additional sector length an overburden on the business case, particularly for a narrow body. I used to have access to PaxIS and the EI routes to JFK and BOS from SNN were overwhelmingly point to point demand maybe 80% to 85%, hard to justify reducing frequency on them to service ORD which could already be covered on the one-stop options from SNN or direct from DUB (EIx2, UA, AA).
 
BrianDromey
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 2:23 am

Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:19 am

Sad to see the loss of the BHD base, but I guess one A320 on the Aer Lingus UK operation would be an operational headache in a lot of ways. It would probably have to be 3-4 aircraft base, or be closed.
Ryanair UK have faces a similar issue, of course. The original plan was to have just one 737-800 on the UK certificate and wet-lease aircraft from Ireland (possibly Poland and Malta, but I haven’t seen that mentioned) to the entity. Apparently the UK CAA weren’t happy with the arrangement.

Fliplot wrote:
Stobart had no where to go once EI announced exclusive talks with Emerald. And I recognise that Stobart finances were a mess. I'm surprised at the suggestion that getting an Irish AOC is simply a paper exercise and Emerald talked about UK operatiins early on. ORK is a missed opportunity I think? It would be great, but just a dream, to see Emerald flying all over Ireland and the UK, even near Europe
Just a thought!


The story begins well before that though. EI and RE signed a franchise to 2022 in 2013, they also jointly funded the purchase of the -FAx sequence of ATRs. Ar the time RE wasn’t doing that well financially and over time EI sold off its leasing internet in the holding company for the ATRs.
There were a number of merger talks involving Aer Arann, I recall CityJet being one, which collapsed. Stobart entered the picture looking for an in-house operator for their SEN and their Carslaile airports. A flyBe franchise ensued for the SEN branding and RE found themselves lumbered with a trio of E-195s.
By the end of 2019 flyBe was probably already beyond the point of no return they consummated a marriage of convenience with Virgin, Stobart and Cyrus capital. At the time it was hinted on these boards that EI (and likely IAG) were not at all pleased that their regional partner was now partly owned by Virgin. The next EIR contract was awarded in November 2020, a year later, unsurprisingly that was not awarded to Stobart.
I think it’s fair to say that the loss of the EI flying meant Stobart Air was not a viable ongoing entity and that the pandemic was the straw that broke the camels back. But to lay the blame solely at EI/IAG’s door is a bit revisionist.

An interesting time to be alive, for sure!
 
Clydenairways
Posts: 1512
Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2007 8:27 am

Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:36 am

LH982 wrote:
The land west of 16/34 was originally tied up with the McEvaddy brothers, so this proposed terminal would not have been DAA managed. DAA went for T2 in it's present position because this was land they controlled. The shortcomings of the location were obvious at the time of the build.

Moving the hangars would be the most obvious next move, but I've no idea of the financial ramifications of such a move.


The McEvaddy's dont own all the land in that area, i understand the DAA own much more than they do. Anyway that independent terminal ship has sailed long ago and i dont see it ever seeing the light of day. Most likely expansion in the near future would be another pier down near the Ryanair pier, and the demolishing of one of the oldest hangars.
 
LH982
Posts: 305
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:28 pm

Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:48 am

Clydenairways wrote:
LH982 wrote:
The land west of 16/34 was originally tied up with the McEvaddy brothers, so this proposed terminal would not have been DAA managed. DAA went for T2 in it's present position because this was land they controlled. The shortcomings of the location were obvious at the time of the build.

Moving the hangars would be the most obvious next move, but I've no idea of the financial ramifications of such a move.


The McEvaddy's dont own all the land in that area, i understand the DAA own much more than they do. Anyway that independent terminal ship has sailed long ago and i dont see it ever seeing the light of day. Most likely expansion in the near future would be another pier down near the Ryanair pier, and the demolishing of one of the oldest hangars.



I didn't say the owned all the land, I said the owned 130 acres. I also said the moving the hangars would be the best solution, provided the numbers work.
 
EI321
Posts: 5126
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

Re: Irish 10/22: Winter is coming

Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:41 pm

The land that the McEvaddys and the DAA own is all interlocked so neither side would be able to build a terminal there unless land parcel is joined up. The DAA owns the land between the runways shown in grey and McEvaddys own much of the rest, at the below link.

https://www.thejournal.ie/dublin-airpor ... 5-Apr2016/

McEvaddys have no access to runways and neither are the daa obliged to give it to them. The DAA has made them undervalued low ball offer several times and were told to get lost. The Mcevaddys have claimed several times that they are about to go for planning for a terminal but never have, they are spoofers.



Even if they owned all the land between the runways, which they don't, the infrastructure just isn't there. It would all require a lot of joined up thinking and compromise between all stakeholders, something that we dont do very well in Ireland. The McEvaddys released images of a fantasy terminal design a few years ago that included development on land they dont even own, giving the impression the whole thing was ready to go ahead. Most of it seemed to be offices apartments weirdly. its been going on for a quarter of a century.

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish ... 85549.html

I think building an extension and possibly a small-medium sized terminal 3 next to pier d / where the hangers currently are and building up the multistory car parks is logical considering the location of the planned metro station. I think they would definetly need more jetbridges if long haul expansion is to continue, its silly that an airline like Air Canada have to board a 777W via air stars at pier D.
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