https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-10-13/


What is the final mix likely to be?

I'd say:

30 77x
40 787X with new increased MTOW "ER" model
30 789

I feel they will finally ditch the A350 order.

Wide body NMA or 767MAX. You heard it here first.

Although more likely 787s to replace the 767 once and for all and the A350 to start chipping away at the 777s, maybe even launch the neo with the UltraFan.

It'll probably be something like 50 dreamliners and 50 options for a "100 widebody" order.

Could be a number of things:

Likely
1. All Dreamliners
2. Reaffirming their commitment to the A350s, along with a top up order of 787s

Not as likely
1. Something with the 777x. I just don’t think they have a need for something that big.

Wildcard
1. Launch order for NMA

Bunch of 787-10s is a safe bet

Assuming 787-10ER to start replacing 77E routes?

My guess is UA will purchase a significant number of 787-10s with the increased MTOW and some 787-9s with the increased MTOW Boeing has spoken about. UA could then shift their older 787-10s to replace their 777-200 (non-ER). The newer 787-10ERs would replace older 777-200ERs. The 787-9ERs would provide some flexibility on longer routes.

My guess is 787-10ER and more 787-9. My guess would be the A350s will never happen. My dream would be a DC-10 MAX

BAorAB wrote:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/united-airlines-nears-order-over-100-widebody-jets-bloomberg-news-2022-10-13/


What is the final mix likely to be?

I'd say:

30 77x
40 787X with new increased MTOW "ER" model
30 789

I feel they will finally ditch the A350 order.

I doubt any 777X right now and DEFINITELY not 30 of them. If they need something to replace the 777-300ER in the future they can just take the A350s that they keep deferring. Most logical would be a mix of 787-9 and 787-10 (possibly "ER") to gradually replace the 767s, 777-200s and 777-200ERs. If you add the current quantity of all those up it is 127.

Ok, I’ll bite. UA finally says “no” to the A350 order. How do they get out of it? From what I’ve read, the issue is that the A350s they’ve orders have RR engines so even if they converted the 350s into more 321neos or XLRs, they’d still need a way out of the RR engines.

Do we think UA is willing to pay whatever price is necessary to ditch the 350s altogether?

amtravels wrote:

Ok, I’ll bite. UA finally says “no” to the A350 order. How do they get out of it? From what I’ve read, the issue is that the A350s they’ve orders have RR engines so even if they converted the 350s into more 321neos or XLRs, they’d still need a way out of the RR engines.

Do we think UA is willing to pay whatever price is necessary to ditch the 350s altogether?

Anybody have an idea of how big 'whatever price' might be? Avoiding another widebody type over the next 25 years is easily worth more than $1Billion. Look at the impairment charge DL took to make 18 777/77L go away.

MIflyer12 wrote:

amtravels wrote:

Ok, I’ll bite. UA finally says “no” to the A350 order. How do they get out of it? From what I’ve read, the issue is that the A350s they’ve orders have RR engines so even if they converted the 350s into more 321neos or XLRs, they’d still need a way out of the RR engines.

Do we think UA is willing to pay whatever price is necessary to ditch the 350s altogether?

Anybody have an idea of how big 'whatever price' might be? Avoiding another widebody type over the next 25 years is easily worth more than $1Billion. Look at the impairment charge DL took to make 18 777/77L go away.

I find it strange that UA increased the A350 order and then deferred it. Although the B787 is favourite to win this order, I think UA may have approached some deadline on the A350 order. Airbus commercial has been rather aggressive tidying up their order book and may be pressing UA for some definitive answer.

amtravels wrote:

Ok, I’ll bite. UA finally says “no” to the A350 order. How do they get out of it? From what I’ve read, the issue is that the A350s they’ve orders have RR engines so even if they converted the 350s into more 321neos or XLRs, they’d still need a way out of the RR engines.

Do we think UA is willing to pay whatever price is necessary to ditch the 350s altogether?

I bet the A350 question got answered with the XLR order.

My two cents is that they’ll convert the A350s to A321/320s and this order will be a mix of 787-9s and 787-10s to replace their 777-200s. Im thinking theyll also include 15 777–9 for the heavier Far East and Frankfurt routes.

amtravels wrote:

Ok, I’ll bite. UA finally says “no” to the A350 order. How do they get out of it? From what I’ve read, the issue is that the A350s they’ve orders have RR engines so even if they converted the 350s into more 321neos or XLRs, they’d still need a way out of the RR engines.

Do we think UA is willing to pay whatever price is necessary to ditch the 350s altogether?

Scott Kirby clearly stated in an interview a little while ago that the penalty for cancelling the RR engine order is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, especially compared to the cost of having another fleet type.

Incidentally, in that same interview, he also said UA would wind up buying either 100 A350s, or 0 (go to the 30-minute mark in this video for the details: https://youtu.be/3c5XYgheK04 )

BAorAB wrote:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/united-airlines-nears-order-over-100-widebody-jets-bloomberg-news-2022-10-13/


What is the final mix likely to be?

I'd say:

30 77x
40 787X with new increased MTOW "ER" model
30 789

I feel they will finally ditch the A350 order.

YES!
well said, I agree.

Addition of another fleet type is cost prohibitive.

Goodbye 350...

Hello Boeing

hOMSaR wrote:

amtravels wrote:

Ok, I’ll bite. UA finally says “no” to the A350 order. How do they get out of it? From what I’ve read, the issue is that the A350s they’ve orders have RR engines so even if they converted the 350s into more 321neos or XLRs, they’d still need a way out of the RR engines.

Do we think UA is willing to pay whatever price is necessary to ditch the 350s altogether?

Scott Kirby clearly stated in an interview a little while ago that the penalty for cancelling the RR engine order is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, especially compared to the cost of having another fleet type.

Incidentally, in that same interview, he also said UA would wind up buying either 100 A350s, or 0 (go to the 30-minute mark in this video for the details: https://youtu.be/3c5XYgheK04 )

I’m betting on 0 A350s. Why buy a new fleet type…..unless you buy a bunch at a great price.

[twoid][/twoid]

MDC862 wrote:

Addition of another fleet type is cost prohibitive.

Goodbye 350...

Hello Boeing

It’s not cost prohibitive. There are so many factors. Sure, UA may find the benefits of all 787s to be best, but it’s not “cost prohibitive” ipso facto.

Also pretty sure there’s already a thread on this and it’s extensively discussed in the UA fleet thread. Same old comments being rehashed.

jbs2886 wrote:

[twoid][/twoid]

MDC862 wrote:

Addition of another fleet type is cost prohibitive.

Goodbye 350...

Hello Boeing

It’s not cost prohibitive. There are so many factors. Sure, UA may find the benefits of all 787s to be best, but it’s not “cost prohibitive” ipso facto.

Also pretty sure there’s already a thread on this and it’s extensively discussed in the UA fleet thread. Same old comments being rehashed.

Genuine question, because I don’t know the answer. What can an A350 do that a 787 can’t?

To the same end, what can a 777x do than an A350 or
787 can’t?

If I’m UA, what’s my value prop for going anything other than 100% 787?

The 787 is the perfect aircraft for United. Its a no brainer! And I consider myself an Airbus-lover but the 787 is a masterpiece.

amtravels wrote:

If I’m UA, what’s my value prop for going anything other than 100% 787?

My amateur risk assessment says they will not put every egg in the 787 basket. Early 787 groundings were lesson number 1. The MAX groundings were lesson number 2. 777PW groundings 25 years after EIS were lesson number 3.

My bet is we’ll see either a mixed 359/35K updated order or a new 779 order for 30-40 frames total with the rest being 789/78J.
My preference is for the 350 order to remain, but I’m not an accountant so I await the news.

Wildest of wild cards would be some 339s instead of 350s, but I think the chance of that is near absolute 0. I’m of the opinion they add nothing to a fleet that doesn’t already have 330s in it, and its sales numbers reflect that.

panam330 wrote:

amtravels wrote:

If I’m UA, what’s my value prop for going anything other than 100% 787?

Risk assessment says they will not put every egg in the 787 basket. Early 787 groundings were lesson number 1. The MAX groundings were lesson number 2. 777PW groundings 25 years after EIS was lesson number 3.
My bet is we’ll see either a mixed 359/35K updated order or a new 779 order for 30-40 frames total with the rest being 789/78J.
My preference is for the 350 order to remain, but I’m not an accountant so I await the news.

I think the priority for UA now is to replace the B767s and the B777s. It looks very much like a B787 order.

amtravels wrote:

What can an A350 do that a 787 can’t?

To the same end, what can a 777x do than an A350 or
787 can’t?

If I’m UA, what’s my value prop for going anything other than 100% 787?

http://www.aviatorjoe.net/go/compare/A350-900/787-9/

Probably not a 100% accurate source but you can plug in any commercial aircraft combination and compare size, range, speed etc.

amtravels wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

[twoid][/twoid]

MDC862 wrote:

Addition of another fleet type is cost prohibitive.

Goodbye 350...

Hello Boeing

It’s not cost prohibitive. There are so many factors. Sure, UA may find the benefits of all 787s to be best, but it’s not “cost prohibitive” ipso facto.

Also pretty sure there’s already a thread on this and it’s extensively discussed in the UA fleet thread. Same old comments being rehashed.

Genuine question, because I don’t know the answer. What can an A350 do that a 787 can’t?

To the same end, what can a 777x do than an A350 or
787 can’t?

If I’m UA, what’s my value prop for going anything other than 100% 787?

UA had a lot of cargo heavy Pacfic routes pre COVID.. Assuming they eventually come back, a 283t A350 could lift more on those routes especially out of EWR and ORD...

amtravels wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

[twoid][/twoid]

MDC862 wrote:

Addition of another fleet type is cost prohibitive.

Goodbye 350...

Hello Boeing

It’s not cost prohibitive. There are so many factors. Sure, UA may find the benefits of all 787s to be best, but it’s not “cost prohibitive” ipso facto.

Also pretty sure there’s already a thread on this and it’s extensively discussed in the UA fleet thread. Same old comments being rehashed.

Genuine question, because I don’t know the answer. What can an A350 do that a 787 can’t?

To the same end, what can a 777x do than an A350 or
787 can’t?

If I’m UA, what’s my value prop for going anything other than 100% 787?

From the point of view of already having a 787/777 fleet, not a huge amount, but they do have A359s on order (for now!), and they'd possibly have to give compensation to Airbus and RR. All the indications are that the aircraft itself is a good fit for UA, just not as an additional fleet. With the 283T MTOW for the A359 and the Project Sunrise spec A35K, they'd be able to lift more than current fleet, and UA does have a comparatively large focus on long haul (TPAC) flying compared to rivals.

With fuel prices sky high, slots open on the production line, and fleet commonslity, I just think the 787 has got to be pretty hard to beat in UA’s eyes.

United could have a nice sized A350 fleet but the idea they would have A330-900 is wild, not going to happen. What would these planes do others in the fleet don't ?

panam330 wrote:

amtravels wrote:

If I’m UA, what’s my value prop for going anything other than 100% 787?

My amateur risk assessment says they will not put every egg in the 787 basket. Early 787 groundings were lesson number 1. The MAX groundings were lesson number 2. 777PW groundings 25 years after EIS were lesson number 3.

My bet is we’ll see either a mixed 359/35K updated order or a new 779 order for 30-40 frames total with the rest being 789/78J.
My preference is for the 350 order to remain, but I’m not an accountant so I await the news.

Wildest of wild cards would be some 339s instead of 350s, but I think the chance of that is near absolute 0. I’m of the opinion they add nothing to a fleet that doesn’t already have 330s in it, and its sales numbers reflect that.

I think this is a great point. Having a fleet of almost entirely 787s (plus a marginal number of remaining 777s) a decade or so down the line could leave UA In a vulnerable position. The order could still all go to Boeing, but I don't think it's a runaway. Airbus is definitely in the mix here, and when you look at the A359, it's a pretty ideal match for the 77E in terms of capacity and range.

SFOtoORD wrote:

It seems like the widebody sales market has been weak so I’m sure they’re looking for deals.

If they're trying to get rid of the A350 order, UA is in perfect position. They'll probably have Boeing buy them out of it with a substancial discount on an all Boeing three figure wide body order. Win for UA and a PR and shareholder-confidence win for Boeing.

JonesNL wrote:

hOMSaR wrote:

amtravels wrote:

Ok, I’ll bite. UA finally says “no” to the A350 order. How do they get out of it? From what I’ve read, the issue is that the A350s they’ve orders have RR engines so even if they converted the 350s into more 321neos or XLRs, they’d still need a way out of the RR engines.

Do we think UA is willing to pay whatever price is necessary to ditch the 350s altogether?

Scott Kirby clearly stated in an interview a little while ago that the penalty for cancelling the RR engine order is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, especially compared to the cost of having another fleet type.

Incidentally, in that same interview, he also said UA would wind up buying either 100 A350s, or 0 (go to the 30-minute mark in this video for the details: https://youtu.be/3c5XYgheK04 )

Some interesting details from the interview:
1. He likes the A350, not the price;
2. He said that new fleet is couple $100 mil yearly;
3. With upcoming retirement of 777 they are going to have a "bake off" between A and B for 100+ planes.

787 is the easiest choice. A330 and 777x are not in the running I believe.
Although the A350 is a hard call, the order for 100 WB planes is so significant that it can shift economics quite substantially. Even for the OEM, so it al depends on who provides the biggest discounts...

To 1. - I think his remark in the interview, that there was a dramatic difference to the price he saw at US Airways (even after adjustment for inflation) is an important point to him. I think he had the price for the first itteration in mind, where it was more of an a330 remake, but I could be mistaken. The pricing is something that rumors also say about the 787-10, that Boeing is asking too much
To 2. - well, that is what he will say to Airbus, and tell Boeing that if he goes to Airbus, for x,y,z reasons the Airbus offer is better, and that the difference is not so dramatic. Normal commercial negotiation to extract good prices from both, however total cost of ownership, revenue and (what others have said with avoiding all eggs in one basket) cost of risk will be factored.
IMHO the couple $100 mil yearly is overstated, if other airlines say that after roughly 50 frames, the difference for operating an additional type is negligable. Couple $100 million over the lifetime of a fleet sounds more reasonable to me. The additional costs will have to be outweighed by additional revenue potential (Example: Is the volumetric advantage of the 787-10 over shorter routes or the payload advantage of the a350 over longer routes more beneficial for United over 20-30 years?. They will certainly look at a lot more metrics and future developments - I just picked that as it is easy to illustrate)
To 3 - honestly, I doubt anybody can predict this, as it also depends on how much A and/or B are prepared to lower their bids vs. the other factors

They currently have 3 widebody fleets 767, 777 and 787 and it’s the first two of these that need replacing first except for the 777-300ER fleet which is relatively new.

I see two issues:
- A330NEO, 787 are too large to replace most of the 767 fleet (and A330 is unlikely to be ordered and the 788 is also a bit of a problem child), so unless Boeing has a new offer here they may go with the A321XLR short term and wait for new offers from A/B over the next 5 years
- 777X looks too large based on current fleet, so unless UA want larger planes the 777-300ER fleet covers it for now

Given the above and the assumption that UA don’t want to go all 787, I can see a split of 787-9/10 and A350-900. That would remove the 777-200 and part of the 767 fleet and grow the A350 order to the 100 mark as said in the video. Longer term the 767 may go altogether and A350-1000 replace the 300ER fleet, leaving only 787 and A350. That would be a great fleet for the future and would allow UA to pick the best NEO versions as announced and keep Boeing/Airbus honest on pricing for decades to come.

The relative strength of dollar this year is going to make it difficult for Airbus to offer much discounts compared to Boeing..

Even Air India has been complaining about A350's costs, especially now there is a beefed up 787 available.

This maybe a perfect time to split the order. Considering higher fuel prices and the obvious long term closure of Russian airspace, I would guess:

30 A350K
30 A350-900
20 78X-ER
20 789-ER

My guesses in order of likelihood:

1) All 787 (various versions).
2) Mixed 787 & A350
3) All A350.

777X an outsider, A330Neo virtually no chance.

Any ideas when they expect to finalised/announce an order?

sibibom wrote:

The relative strength of dollar this year is going to make it difficult for Airbus to offer much discounts compared to Boeing..

Even Air India has been complaining about A350's costs, especially now there is a beefed up 787 available.

The strong $ will penalise Airbus on procurment with supplyers they pay in $, but the strong $ will also help Airbus lower their saleprice in $ ... both effect considered and the fact that Airbus manpower is mostly in €, the balance $/€ is in favor of Airbus.

sibibom wrote:

The relative strength of dollar this year is going to make it difficult for Airbus to offer much discounts compared to Boeing..

I tend to disagree.
A strong USD compared to the Euro where most Airbus cost occur would put Airbus in a better
position. Previously a USD customer would have to pay 1.3 USD per Euro, now its basically 1 to 1, so a significant discount in USD pricing should be possible, of course mostly eaten up by inflation.

ORDLHR787 wrote:

My two cents is that they’ll convert the A350s to A321/320s and this order will be a mix of 787-9s and 787-10s to replace their 777-200s. Im thinking theyll also include 15 777–9 for the heavier Far East and Frankfurt routes.

Converting to A320/321 may depend on what happens to the Max-10 certification

HTCone wrote:

My guesses in order of likelihood:

1) All 787 (various versions).
2) Mixed 787 & A350
3) All A350.

777X an outsider, A330Neo virtually no chance.

Any ideas when they expect to finalised/announce an order?

I would say all 3 are as likely.
Both aircraft family are "close" considering United replacement needs.
Both aircraft family are bringing in technical improvement (higher mtow, lower oew, sidewalls, engine pip, ...) coincidental to this bid.
Both OEM have an ongoing business relation with United with negociation tokens (max/787 compensations, A350 already on order, retro credits, single fleet, ...).
Both OEM are not so keen on discounting to much their current best seller/star widebody, but United is hooking them with a 100 copies upfront. It should be a must win for both OEM.

In the end, it will come down to who gives the best deal.

There is about 0.5% chance they will go with A350. Not only is 787 the pragmatic choice but UA had so many opportunities to order the 350 and yet they didn't. Meanwhile, they ordered the 321 XLR...it is a pretty obvious line of reasoning.

VS11 wrote:

There is about 0.5% chance they will go with A350. Not only is 787 the pragmatic choice but UA had so many opportunities to order the 350 and yet they didn't. Meanwhile, they ordered the 321 XLR...it is a pretty obvious line of reasoning.

Do they not have firm orders for 45 x A359 outstanding? Initially 25 x A359, converted to 35 x A3510,convetrted to 45 x A359.

JerseyFlyer wrote:

VS11 wrote:

There is about 0.5% chance they will go with A350. Not only is 787 the pragmatic choice but UA had so many opportunities to order the 350 and yet they didn't. Meanwhile, they ordered the 321 XLR...it is a pretty obvious line of reasoning.

Do they not have firm orders for 45 x A359 outstanding? Initially 25 x A359, converted to 35 x A3510,convetrted to 45 x A359.

Those I believe were made long time ago. Not sure what happened to them but the A350 is still not with UA. If UA believed it was a compelling choice for them, they would have gotten the A350 by now.

JFKalumni wrote:

This maybe a perfect time to split the order. Considering higher fuel prices and the obvious long term closure of Russian airspace, I would guess:

30 A350K
30 A350-900
20 78X-ER
20 789-ER

Splitting the fleet locks in all the costs of a split fleet for a generation. Those costs are non-trivial. More 787s is an easy choice unless there are specific capabilities they seek that 787s lack.

MaxiAir wrote:

sibibom wrote:

The relative strength of dollar this year is going to make it difficult for Airbus to offer much discounts compared to Boeing..

I tend to disagree.
A strong USD compared to the Euro where most Airbus cost occur would put Airbus in a better
position. Previously a USD customer would have to pay 1.3 USD per Euro, now its basically 1 to 1, so a significant discount in USD pricing should be possible, of course mostly eaten up by inflation.

Both manufacturers have global supply chains and the forex translations are necessarily complex. However, aircraft prices are usually quoted in USD and I tend to believe that both manufacturers can look at their costs and offer discounts as are necessary. Somehow, I think the strong dollar will affect the buyer (to differing degrees) more than Airbus or Boeing.

The strong dollar helps Airbus as they would not have to raise their prices in USD while Boeing might need to per US inflation.

MIflyer12 wrote:

JFKalumni wrote:

This maybe a perfect time to split the order. Considering higher fuel prices and the obvious long term closure of Russian airspace, I would guess:

30 A350K
30 A350-900
20 78X-ER
20 789-ER

Splitting the fleet locks in all the costs of a split fleet for a generation. Those costs are non-trivial. More 787s is an easy choice unless there are specific capabilities they seek that 787s lack.

I agree. UA has been the most loyal Boeing customer. They've ordered every single Boeing product dating back before the 707, United is one of the first airlines Boeing approaches when a new plane is being developed or contemplated.

United going Airbus with the A320 and the A350 was a shock to many here and in the industry, not to mention for Boeing. However, we are living a different world and Airbus is now the world's largest commercial aircraft manufacturer. And the A350 has become the replacement for the 777 ERs.

I'm willing to bet the technical decision has been made, and all that UA is doing now is negotiating terms and conditions. I put my money a split order, unless the 78XER can operate all current and future 777 routes, the A350 will have a place at UA. I would be shocked to see the 777X included in this deal, if that happens the A350 is out.

For those who are interested, one of my favourite aviation docs covers the UA 777 negotiations and order.

https://youtu.be/0oyWZjdXxlw?t=532


KrisYYZ

MIflyer12 wrote:

JFKalumni wrote:

This maybe a perfect time to split the order. Considering higher fuel prices and the obvious long term closure of Russian airspace, I would guess:

30 A350K
30 A350-900
20 78X-ER
20 789-ER

Splitting the fleet locks in all the costs of a split fleet for a generation. Those costs are non-trivial. More 787s is an easy choice unless there are specific capabilities they seek that 787s lack.

Yes you’re correct

It would lock in split fleet costs. I would love to see how SQ, LH, BA, VN, JL and TK are doing to control these costs. My thought process was focused on range, lift and current conditions. The current A350 lineup could help support current routes or even restore some service currently grounded such as BOM

EWR:
CPT, JNB, BOM, HKG, PVG, PEK, DXB

SFO:
SIN, HKG, SYD, MEL, BOM, BLR

LAX:
SIN, HKG, SYD, MEL

I agree the A350 is not needed for everything. The current 787 fleet does an excellent job. I just can’t see walking away from the A350 unless the 787 upgrades truly equal the lift and performance.

If the cost of the RR engines on the A350 is so high as to offset savings from a less diversified fleet, unless the RR contract is not amenable, what UA could do is to order 787-XX with RR engines, RR get's its engine contract and UA continues to minimize its fleet type. The A350 order can then be resolved if, as some posters are suggesting, the engine contract is the main sticking point.
Unlike the A350, there is a choice of engines on the 787, which is to RR benefit, they are in a win win situation.