airbazar wrote:[
IMO, the reason why TATL LC service has failed in the past has more to do with how poorly managed the airlines were rather than the market itself.
This.
Using Norwegian as an example, they had totally undisciplined network and fleet strategies. Dozens of brand new 787s, flying all over the world, and even establishing a domestic airline subsidiary in Argentina all in a span of less than a decade. Same can be said with WOW.
And other long haul LCCs of past utilized wide-bodies with close to 400 seats. One of the things of airline travel is you still have to fill the seats. A 240 seat A321 on PHL-DUB or MIA-BOG is a lot easier to fill than, say, a Laker DC10. Plus, F9 is definitely doing their homework on all kinds of service the 321XLR can offer. If TATL is in the cards, they'll take in to account the weight of 240 people and may even have a less dense cabin, MAY.
For Frontier, this is the time to strike, but not nuclear like Norwegian, surgical. F9 has PHL to work from, arguable the best city in the US with a US3 hub at the moment to launch this service. AA still isn't at pre-pandemic levels in PHL so there totally is room for F9 to jump in, despite the BA/EI/IB JV.
F9 also has a sister airline in the same airline group with 2 hubs in London, Wizz in LGW and LTN; as well as JetSmart in Chile (albeit already partnered with AA). Partner/sister airline feed is something none of the long haul LCCs had, a huge leg up for F9. Hell, Wizz (or their vendor) can straight up be F9s ground service provider.
No one says the long haul service has to be hourly, most of it will more likely be seasonal like their current international service is, with possibly DUB/SNN and LGW/LTN probably being the only true year-round service, with a reduced schedule in of peak times of the year, crew hotel needs notwithstanding. The likes of BOG/UIO/LIM-MCO/MIA can pretty much be daily year round.
F9 has the ability to make this work, but they'll figure out their needs and what suits them best before a massive decision like this is made.