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a36001
Posts: 412
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:50 am

pusserchef wrote:
here is a clip from youtube........ I don't quite agree with the content creators methods, but it must work for him, nor do I agree with AJ's methods either. Nonetheless thought i'd share.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X_mfUQ ... sieCossack


Couldn't have said it any better! Good on Alan Joyce!

I think Alan has had enough of being CEO to be honest. Its all too personal and spiteful now and this type of stuff is just over the top!
What has that bloke ever done in his life compared to Alan Joyce (like him or not he is a successful person) besides creating 'content' and being a self important nobody.
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:42 am

tullamarine wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
https://australianaviation.com.au/2022/11/melbourne-airport-international-recovery-sluggish-in-october/

Unsurprisingly intl recovery has slowed to a trickle. I wouldn't be surprised if there is actually a decline next year as economics start to bite, Latest NAB report showed travel spend is already declining.

Inbound international tourism is slow to return but outbound and domestic tourism look to be doing very well over the Christmas/New Year period.

International airlines remain capacity constrained as they try to reactivate their fleets but there is no doubt that they could fill more planes out of Australia if they were available. I have to go to Asia in December for work. I may have to make it earlier than planned as there are basically no available seats to SIN or CGK from 12/12 onwards.


Agree. The key problem for Australia is capacity not demand. The lack of capacity means that prices are sky high so that's constraining things.
 
lsmi4126
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:43 pm

VH-OQA on her way back to Sydney after almost a
month at LAX as QF6023.
 
tristans
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:57 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:24 pm

lsmi4126 wrote:
VH-OQA on her way back to Sydney after almost a
month at LAX as QF6023.

FR24 showing to LHR, operating QF2 upon arrival?
 
evanb
Posts: 1346
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:52 pm

lsmi4126 wrote:
VH-OQA on her way back to Sydney after almost a
month at LAX as QF6023.


The dreaded wing spar checks ...

It is interesting that it's not operating as a revenue flight. Most repositions to/from LAX operate as revenue flights.
 
tullamarine
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Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:19 am

evanb wrote:
lsmi4126 wrote:
VH-OQA on her way back to Sydney after almost a
month at LAX as QF6023.


The dreaded wing spar checks ...

It is interesting that it's not operating as a revenue flight. Most repositions to/from LAX operate as revenue flights.

Has OQA had her interior refit. I flew on her shortly before COVID and it was still in the old configuration.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:39 am

tullamarine wrote:
evanb wrote:
lsmi4126 wrote:
VH-OQA on her way back to Sydney after almost a
month at LAX as QF6023.


The dreaded wing spar checks ...

It is interesting that it's not operating as a revenue flight. Most repositions to/from LAX operate as revenue flights.

Has OQA had her interior refit. I flew on her shortly before COVID and it was still in the old configuration.


Yes, I believe it has. As far as I'm aware, none are returning to service without the reconfiguration.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 4:07 am

tristans wrote:
lsmi4126 wrote:
VH-OQA on her way back to Sydney after almost a
month at LAX as QF6023.

FR24 showing to LHR, operating QF2 upon arrival?


Has OQD (current QF1) had its spar checks?
 
User avatar
a36001
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 5:09 am

When an aircraft is operating a flight such as OQA is doing now, how much does this cost the airline? I suppose its all factored into the business of operating an airline. Would it have some freight to offset the cost?
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 5:51 am

qf2220 wrote:
tristans wrote:
lsmi4126 wrote:
VH-OQA on her way back to Sydney after almost a
month at LAX as QF6023.

FR24 showing to LHR, operating QF2 upon arrival?


Has OQD (current QF1) had its spar checks?


VH-OQA: wing spar check complete; correction from earlier, I believe it has not had refurbishment yet, but is transiting through LHR to DRS or AUH for refurbishment.
VH-OQB: in service; wing spar check not yet completed
VH-OQC: wing spar check not completed; in AUH for refurbishment at present
VH-OQD: in service; wing spar check not yet completed
VH-OQE: storage in VCV
VH-OQF: scrapped at VCV
VH-OQG: wing spar check not completed; in AUH for refurbishment at present
VH-OQH: in service; wing spar check not yet completed
VH-OQI: storage in VCV
VH-OQJ: in service; wing spar check completed Sept/Oct.
VH-OQK: currently in maintenance receiving wing spar check in SYD.
VH-OQL: will position from VCV to LAX in coming days for maintenance (including wing spar)
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 5:53 am

a36001 wrote:
When an aircraft is operating a flight such as OQA is doing now, how much does this cost the airline? I suppose its all factored into the business of operating an airline. Would it have some freight to offset the cost?


Likely the reason why it's transiting through LHR on the way to AUH or DRS is that its carrying freight.
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:16 am

OQA is not positioning LHR to operate QF2, the aircraft is transiting via LHR on its way to AUH where it will enter heavy mx.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
lsmi4126
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:54 am

EK413 wrote:
OQA is not positioning LHR to operate QF2, the aircraft is transiting via LHR on its way to AUH where it will enter heavy mx.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


So can we expect OQC or OQH to exit soon?
 
JJWess
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:40 pm

I’m *really* sorry if this is already somewhere on the forums but I did a quick search and couldn’t find it.

Just wanted to know if anyone had a schedule for Qantas’ intl services come June/July next year?

I’m interested to see how they’re juggling multiple new routes (i.e. MEL-DFW, AKL-JFK, PER-FCO) with their current aircraft, and how long it may be before we see the introduction of flights suggested pre-2020 like Sydney to Seattle, Brisbane to Chicago or Perth to Paris.

I know more A380’s are yet to come online, and the A350’s are supposedly due 2025, but even then aren’t they slated for new Project Sunrise routes, and not so much to service the existing network?
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:43 pm

Sometimes I wonder if QF regret palming off the 744s now. Obviously they didn’t anticipate 3 787s still stuck in the desert come 2023 and the A380 wing crack checks.

Having the 744s to take care of SYD-JNB, SYD-SCL and maybe SYD-HND would’ve given them alot more wriggle room.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Sun Nov 20, 2022 9:00 am

ben175 wrote:
Sometimes I wonder if QF regret palming off the 744s now. Obviously they didn’t anticipate 3 787s still stuck in the desert come 2023 and the A380 wing crack checks.

Having the 744s to take care of SYD-JNB, SYD-SCL and maybe SYD-HND would’ve given them alot more wriggle room.

I doubt it. QF will have made significant savings removing a type from the fleet in areas such as maintenance and spares. Even if they had kept the 747s, they would have the same issues of reactivating the fleet which would have been stored in the US deserts. With fuel prices as they are, the 747s would be an expensive option anyway.
 
freshwater
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Sun Nov 20, 2022 10:13 pm

ben175 wrote:
Sometimes I wonder if QF regret palming off the 744s now. Obviously they didn’t anticipate 3 787s still stuck in the desert come 2023 and the A380 wing crack checks.

Having the 744s to take care of SYD-JNB, SYD-SCL and maybe SYD-HND would’ve given them alot more wriggle room.


Maybe moreso scrapping A380s early.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Sun Nov 20, 2022 10:27 pm

I wonder why QF don’t look at a wet/dry lease for JNB to free up a frame, no competition on the routine so long as hard product was similar most pax would be happy. Just looking at what NZ do with AKl-PER with Wamos, seems a good if not better product than Nz.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Sun Nov 20, 2022 10:30 pm

freshwater wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Sometimes I wonder if QF regret palming off the 744s now. Obviously they didn’t anticipate 3 787s still stuck in the desert come 2023 and the A380 wing crack checks.

Having the 744s to take care of SYD-JNB, SYD-SCL and maybe SYD-HND would’ve given them alot more wriggle room.


Maybe moreso scrapping A380s early.


I even wonder about 330s - isn’t the first off for P2F conversion now. Hopefully cargo revenue and demand is holding up above pax.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:00 am

freshwater wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Sometimes I wonder if QF regret palming off the 744s now. Obviously they didn’t anticipate 3 787s still stuck in the desert come 2023 and the A380 wing crack checks.

Having the 744s to take care of SYD-JNB, SYD-SCL and maybe SYD-HND would’ve given them alot more wriggle room.


Maybe moreso scrapping A380s early.
Probably not. Even pre-Covid they struggled to fully utilise all 12.
And with China/HK pursuing it's Covid stance, more 787s providing direct flights to the US, and the coming 35Ks, probably even less need in the future.
 
NZ516
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 2:42 am

moa999 wrote:
freshwater wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Sometimes I wonder if QF regret palming off the 744s now. Obviously they didn’t anticipate 3 787s still stuck in the desert come 2023 and the A380 wing crack checks.

Having the 744s to take care of SYD-JNB, SYD-SCL and maybe SYD-HND would’ve given them alot more wriggle room.


Maybe moreso scrapping A380s early.
Probably not. Even pre-Covid they struggled to fully utilise all 12.
And with China/HK pursuing it's Covid stance, more 787s providing direct flights to the US, and the coming 35Ks, probably even less need in the future.


Qantas could really lease in a few more 787s they seem the most versatile aircraft around. Even with the new 3 coming soon it's barely enough to restart all the previous services. With a lot of former routes keep getting their restart pushed back.
 
JJWess
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 3:45 am

NZ516 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
freshwater wrote:

Maybe moreso scrapping A380s early.
Probably not. Even pre-Covid they struggled to fully utilise all 12.
And with China/HK pursuing it's Covid stance, more 787s providing direct flights to the US, and the coming 35Ks, probably even less need in the future.


Qantas could really lease in a few more 787s they seem the most versatile aircraft around. Even with the new 3 coming soon it's barely enough to restart all the previous services. With a lot of former routes keep getting their restart pushed back.


Are there many 787's even available to lease? Compared to let's say an A330, I would've thought that they'd be in high demand and not as readily available?

But yes, if possible then I 100% agree. San Fran has been pushed back like what... 3-4 times already? And BNE/MEL-SFO have vanished into the abyss till further notice. Qantas is still operating A330's on the BNE-LAX run till further notice... and we all know how that's fairing with the crew rest situation...
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:10 am

HKG restarts next year from SYD and MEL but no talk of BNE-HKG returning (was daily pre covid)

SYD-KIX has never been mentioned since covid, it was up to 5x weekly pre covid.

QF will be down 6 B744, 2 A380, and 2x A330 compared with pre covid so I can't see how they can ever return to 100% pre covid international.

They do have 3x 789s coming but remember they were close to delivery pre covid and some were already loaded into the schedules. BNE-ORD and daily SYD-SCL were scheduled and being sold.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:18 am

JJWess wrote:
Are there many 787's even available to lease? Compared to let's say an A330, I would've thought that they'd be in high demand and not as readily available?


Anything is available for a price. I'd argue that the situation doesn't necessitate paying unreasonable costs or taking on significant risks.

I don't think there are B787s available quickly or on short term leases. None of the traditionally ACMI providers use B787s. Capital costs of newer aircraft make them uncompetitive in the low utilisation business model.

There are a few available if QF are interested in a longer term dry lease but they also won't be delivered instantly. Furthermore, they would want to reconfigure the interiors since operating a non-standard interior on one or two frames would be operationally difficult, if not impossible. The timeline for this is not short given global shortages of interiors and interiors are usually ordered well in advance. Add to that, crewing would take some time too. So all in, it would take maybe 6 to 12 months at best to get it up and running, and even then, at a fairly considerable cost.
 
NZ516
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 6:02 am

vhebb wrote:
HKG restarts next year from SYD and MEL but no talk of BNE-HKG returning (was daily pre covid)

SYD-KIX has never been mentioned since covid, it was up to 5x weekly pre covid.

QF will be down 6 B744, 2 A380, and 2x A330 compared with pre covid so I can't see how they can ever return to 100% pre covid international.

They do have 3x 789s coming but remember they were close to delivery pre covid and some were already loaded into the schedules. BNE-ORD and daily SYD-SCL were scheduled and being sold.


Wow that's a huge reduction in fleet capability 10 wide bodies. This is before the last 3 787s turn up on deck. No wonder why Qantas is really struggling to get back on so many routes.
 
Flyerqf
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Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:57 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 7:19 am

The 6 B744 were always being retired at end of 2020 and replaced by the remaining B789 deliveries on order (3).

Therefore the net COVID change is -2 A388 and -2 A332 and temporarily -3 B789.
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 7:27 am

How were 3 remaining 789s going to cover the already published 4x weekly BNE-ORD, daily SYD-SCL, plus the remaining B744 routes which would have been daily SYD-HND, daily SYD-JNB, daily and 5x weekly SYD-HNL.

Not much slack in the A330 fleet either back then.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 7:32 am

vhebb wrote:
How were 3 remaining 789s going to cover the already published 4x weekly BNE-ORD, daily SYD-SCL, plus the remaining B744 routes which would have been daily SYD-HND, daily SYD-JNB, daily and 5x weekly SYD-HNL.

Not much slack in the A330 fleet either back then.


SYD-HND and SYD-HNL would have been A330s which would have been freed up from elsewhere.
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 7:36 am

So that would have taken around 3 A330 frames, where would they have come from? And with the flight duration times to both HND, and HNL only international A333 or A332 could be used.

The fleet at the time was highly utilised, even the 737 fleet.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:04 am

vhebb wrote:
So that would have taken around 3 A330 frames, where would they have come from? And with the flight duration times to both HND, and HNL only international A333 or A332 could be used.

The fleet at the time was highly utilised, even the 737 fleet.


Possibly several Tasman and PER turns. PEK was dropped around that time wasn’t it, early 2020 ?
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:56 am

vhebb wrote:
How were 3 remaining 789s going to cover the already published 4x weekly BNE-ORD, daily SYD-SCL, plus the remaining B744 routes.


You've got to consider which schedule as well as other long term maintenance (like the refit of the A380

If you go back over the 787 introduction they typically came into service late one year, with the 747s early the next providing extra slack over the busy Xmas period.

I'm sure it was all well planned out before Covid mixed everything up.
 
JJWess
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 10:56 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
vhebb wrote:
So that would have taken around 3 A330 frames, where would they have come from? And with the flight duration times to both HND, and HNL only international A333 or A332 could be used.

The fleet at the time was highly utilised, even the 737 fleet.


Possibly several Tasman and PER turns. PEK was dropped around that time wasn’t it, early 2020 ?


Yeah it was… and I think Osaka was too? Or at least some other city in Asia. Could be wrong.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 11:02 am

Am I alone in thinking for QF to do what they want to do (and should be doing) they probably need about 10-12 more widebody jets within the next 12 months? Excluding the 3 already preferred 789s? Or will it have to wait until there’s a new CEO?
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:34 pm

PEK was dropped which was 5x weekly.

KIX wasn't dropped it was actually increased over the years from the original 3x weekly to 5x weekly.

PEK was rumoured to be replaced by another Asian destination which was apparently either ICN, TPE or direct India.

And yes QF need more frames. An additional 6 B789s would fit very nicely.
 
JJWess
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 1:11 pm

Could they convert some domestic A330’s into Intl configurations if need be…? Not sure what that would involve though. My understanding is just more galley space?
 
NZ516
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:16 pm

vhebb wrote:
PEK was dropped which was 5x weekly.

KIX wasn't dropped it was actually increased over the years from the original 3x weekly to 5x weekly.

PEK was rumoured to be replaced by another Asian destination which was apparently either ICN, TPE or direct India.

And yes QF need more frames. An additional 6 B789s would fit very nicely.


Looks like they did direct India with the A330 taken off PEK. And not enough slack in the 330 fleet for KIX to resume but ICN starting is needed first perhaps. They could easily make use of a fleet of 20 B789s to cover all existing and allow for a bit of growth eg more flying ex PER.
 
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QuayWeeAir
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Mon Nov 21, 2022 11:57 pm

Absolute Scenes This Morning At The International Terminal At Sydney Airport...
The Arrivals Hall Was Bathed In Red And Blue By The Awaiting Fans As The Toa Samoa Rugby League Team Arrived Off QF2 From London..
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 12:53 am

JJWess wrote:
Could they convert some domestic A330’s into Intl configurations if need be…? Not sure what that would involve though. My understanding is just more galley space?

The "domestic" A332s already do a number of international routes into Asia (SIN, CGK, DPS, MNL). I assume the larger galley only becomes necessary when 2 full heated meals are required on a route. With A332s doing less domestic flying compared with a few years ago (particularly trans-continental), the A332s are already doing more international flights.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 12:55 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
need about 10-12 more widebody jets within the next 12 months? Excluding the 3 already preferred 789s? Or will it have to wait until there’s a new CEO?


New CEO or not.. you simply won't get frames in the next 12 months.

Still those 787s, and multiple 380s to come back into service over 2023.

Agree though there is a gap before the first Sunrise 35Ks arrive in late 2025 and I can only think that increase the likelihood of some silver 788s being repainted as they receive more 321LR deliveries.
 
smi0006
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Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:08 am

moa999 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
need about 10-12 more widebody jets within the next 12 months? Excluding the 3 already preferred 789s? Or will it have to wait until there’s a new CEO?


New CEO or not.. you simply won't get frames in the next 12 months.

Still those 787s, and multiple 380s to come back into service over 2023.

Agree though there is a gap before the first Sunrise 35Ks arrive in late 2025 and I can only think that increase the likelihood of some silver 788s being repainted as they receive more 321LR deliveries.


Or a complete shift of 330s to Asia being replaced by 321s on Tasman and Transcon? When is the first due 2024? Wonder if that could be brought forward if some 321LR are reallocated from JQ? Although they will still be down 2x330s due to P2F conversion.

It is interesting- really surprised with current yields the 788 make more money at JQ than they do at QF. HNL and Japan remain the outliers. J seats are probably hard to source now also due to supply chain issues.
 
kriskim
Posts: 569
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 1:21 am

smi0006 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
need about 10-12 more widebody jets within the next 12 months? Excluding the 3 already preferred 789s? Or will it have to wait until there’s a new CEO?


New CEO or not.. you simply won't get frames in the next 12 months.

Still those 787s, and multiple 380s to come back into service over 2023.

Agree though there is a gap before the first Sunrise 35Ks arrive in late 2025 and I can only think that increase the likelihood of some silver 788s being repainted as they receive more 321LR deliveries.


Or a complete shift of 330s to Asia being replaced by 321s on Tasman and Transcon? When is the first due 2024? Wonder if that could be brought forward if some 321LR are reallocated from JQ? Although they will still be down 2x330s due to P2F conversion.

It is interesting- really surprised with current yields the 788 make more money at JQ than they do at QF. HNL and Japan remain the outliers. J seats are probably hard to source now also due to supply chain issues.


JQ is actually getting good use of their 787’s and have added additional flights on MEL-DPS with the A321LR to compliment and not replace. So there’s a lot of demand to warrant a 787 on those routes.

As DPS is a leisure orientated route, would it be better to run full 787’s twice a day rather than 4 A321LR flights?
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 2:35 am

NZ516 wrote:
Looks like they did direct India with the A330 taken off PEK. And not enough slack in the 330 fleet for KIX to resume but ICN starting is needed first perhaps. They could easily make use of a fleet of 20 B789s to cover all existing and allow for a bit of growth eg more flying ex PER.


Why just 20? Why stop there? Why not add A350s for immediate delivery to the wishlist? Sarcasm aside, the aircraft are just not there, and not at the prices that make it worthwhile and viable, and the crew and interiors are just not available quickly enough. The further the window of analysis goes into the future, the broader the options become, and the greater uncertainty. QF are far more conservative with long haul capacity additions since the A380 and likely favour flexibility before capacity.

B787 deliveries from Boeing are at a trickle. Boeing's issues are far from resolved and they're struggling to deliver aircraft that were built two years ago, nevermind new builds. This means new orders have slowed to a trickle. Just to show the mess, in November so far, Boeing delivered 2x B787s to QR; October saw 1x to LH, 3x to AA, 1x to KL, 1x to NH, 1x to YP. Only one aircraft was actually a recent new build, the rest all from the backlog. September saw 1x to UA, 2x to AA, 1x to BA, 1x to WS. Only two aircraft in September were recent new builds, the rest from the backlog. This is why we've seen so few recent orders. Boeing are simply unable to deliver the existing order book at present. Other than existing options/rights being exercised, I only recall one order in the last few years. I don't expect any new order can be delivered before 2026 at the earliest (and that is assuming that Boeing resolve their issues immediately). There might be space for one or two white tails, but Boeing may prefer to use that elsewhere to entice a larger order.

In terms of the secondhand market, there doesn't seem much available. Assuming that QF will want the same engine type (GE), there are not many waiting for new owners. Maybe a handful of operators (e.g. VN, HU) that might be looking to move some on, but the aircraft would all require significant interior mods. QF have a particularly low density cabin and VN & HU a much higher density cabin that may involve more than just new seats.

There are a lot more RR engined versions available on the secondhand market (DY family). I'm not sure what it would take for QF to want to take on a new engine type, how big a fleet it would require, and what the broader economics would be. However, I'm pretty sure that everything was considered during the Project Sunrise selection process and that they have ongoing assessments of various short and long term options. The first A350-1000 is due in late 2025, meaning that if the delivery timeframe for any additional long haul capacity (from outside the group), they need not limit themselves to just the B787. The options could most certainly include A350-900 or even more -1000s.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 2:43 am

smi0006 wrote:
Or a complete shift of 330s to Asia being replaced by 321s on Tasman and Transcon? When is the first due 2024? Wonder if that could be brought forward if some 321LR are reallocated from JQ? Although they will still be down 2x330s due to P2F conversion.

It is interesting- really surprised with current yields the 788 make more money at JQ than they do at QF. HNL and Japan remain the outliers. J seats are probably hard to source now also due to supply chain issues.


What is the opportunity cost?

The A330s given them more than just capacity on Tasman and Transcon. It gives them a long better hard product that attracts higher yields, promotes connecting traffic onto the long haul network, and a lot more cargo capacity. It's not that an A330s would earn them more on an Asian route, it's whether it earns more when netted off what they might have to give up elsewhere. They're certainly having to run fewer A330s on Transcon since VA pulled their A330s, but it's likely the opposite on Tasman routes.

And the same for the B788s with JQ. Sure, they may earn more wearing QF colours than JQ colours, but is the marginal gain for QF greater than the marginal cost to JQ? And not just on some routes, but the operation as a whole? I think QF have answered the question for us, but that also will evolve going forward with the A321XLR.
 
ArtV
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 2:50 am

I get why everyone wants more capacity NOW at QF, but they are creaming it with yields on current fleet/schedules, and as their competitors are also grappling with capacity restrictions (tried booking an international flight at short notice....prices are insane compared to pre-covid levels!), QF has plenty of time to sort out their longer term plans.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 2:57 am

kriskim wrote:
JQ is actually getting good use of their 787’s and have added additional flights on MEL-DPS with the A321LR to compliment and not replace. So there’s a lot of demand to warrant a 787 on those routes.

As DPS is a leisure orientated route, would it be better to run full 787’s twice a day rather than 4 A321LR flights?


Australia-Indonesia is limited by fixed capacity caps, so they can't add more seats at will. At present, Australian designated airlines may operate up to 25,000 seats per week of passenger capacity to and from Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and/or Perth, to and from points in Indonesia. VA holds 4,924 seats, and QF/JQ hold 20,076 seats per week in each direction. So they can't simply add more capacity or scale up whenever they want unless they take from elsewhere in the system.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 3:00 am

ArtV wrote:
I get why everyone wants more capacity NOW at QF, but they are creaming it with yields on current fleet/schedules, and as their competitors are also grappling with capacity restrictions (tried booking an international flight at short notice....prices are insane compared to pre-covid levels!), QF has plenty of time to sort out their longer term plans.


I'm not sure I get the narrative that they're all creaming it?! Yes, yields are good, but fuel is at astonishingly high levels (look at prices in AUD and the currencies they sell a lot of their tickets in), interest rates are rising rapidly, the AUD is weak meaning that many USD related costs like maintenance inputs are much more expensive, and general inflation that is affecting many other cost inputs is rising rapidly. Yes, prices are high and rising, but that shouldn't be read to mean that they are creaming it!
 
F100Flyer
Posts: 114
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:50 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 3:01 am

ArtV wrote:
I get why everyone wants more capacity NOW at QF, but they are creaming it with yields on current fleet/schedules, and as their competitors are also grappling with capacity restrictions (tried booking an international flight at short notice....prices are insane compared to pre-covid levels!), QF has plenty of time to sort out their longer term plans.


I think with a softening economy on the horizon, tighter wallets will sort the capacity out on its own. Would be foolish of any airline to drastically increase capacity just to wind it back again.
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 3:32 am

The other option potentially could have been taking up those QR A350s that have become available but the same issue still arises for most airlines who could take them. You'd still need interiors and crew to fly them and there isn't a quick resolution to even that
 
User avatar
Goodbye
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 4:05 am

QuayWeeAir wrote:
Absolute Scenes This Morning At The International Terminal At Sydney Airport...
The Arrivals Hall Was Bathed In Red And Blue By The Awaiting Fans As The Toa Samoa Rugby League Team Arrived Off QF2 From London..


Doesn't it take so much longer to capitalise the start of every word? Why do people do this!?
 
evanb
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Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2022

Tue Nov 22, 2022 4:38 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
The other option potentially could have been taking up those QR A350s that have become available but the same issue still arises for most airlines who could take them. You'd still need interiors and crew to fly them and there isn't a quick resolution to even that


That's not going anywhere anytime soon. There are court proceedings and neither party can really move on the aircraft at this moment. Airbus have remarketed the remaining Aeroflot A350s pretty swiftly, yet not the Qatar which says all we need to know.

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