NZ516 wrote:Looks like they did direct India with the A330 taken off PEK. And not enough slack in the 330 fleet for KIX to resume but ICN starting is needed first perhaps. They could easily make use of a fleet of 20 B789s to cover all existing and allow for a bit of growth eg more flying ex PER.
Why just 20? Why stop there? Why not add A350s for immediate delivery to the wishlist? Sarcasm aside, the aircraft are just not there, and not at the prices that make it worthwhile and viable, and the crew and interiors are just not available quickly enough. The further the window of analysis goes into the future, the broader the options become, and the greater uncertainty. QF are far more conservative with long haul capacity additions since the A380 and likely favour flexibility before capacity.
B787 deliveries from Boeing are at a trickle. Boeing's issues are far from resolved and they're struggling to deliver aircraft that were built two years ago, nevermind new builds. This means new orders have slowed to a trickle. Just to show the mess, in November so far, Boeing delivered 2x B787s to QR; October saw 1x to LH, 3x to AA, 1x to KL, 1x to NH, 1x to YP. Only one aircraft was actually a recent new build, the rest all from the backlog. September saw 1x to UA, 2x to AA, 1x to BA, 1x to WS. Only two aircraft in September were recent new builds, the rest from the backlog. This is why we've seen so few recent orders. Boeing are simply unable to deliver the existing order book at present. Other than existing options/rights being exercised, I only recall one order in the last few years. I don't expect any new order can be delivered before 2026 at the earliest (and that is assuming that Boeing resolve their issues immediately). There might be space for one or two white tails, but Boeing may prefer to use that elsewhere to entice a larger order.
In terms of the secondhand market, there doesn't seem much available. Assuming that QF will want the same engine type (GE), there are not many waiting for new owners. Maybe a handful of operators (e.g. VN, HU) that might be looking to move some on, but the aircraft would all require significant interior mods. QF have a particularly low density cabin and VN & HU a much higher density cabin that may involve more than just new seats.
There are a lot more RR engined versions available on the secondhand market (DY family). I'm not sure what it would take for QF to want to take on a new engine type, how big a fleet it would require, and what the broader economics would be. However, I'm pretty sure that everything was considered during the Project Sunrise selection process and that they have ongoing assessments of various short and long term options. The first A350-1000 is due in late 2025, meaning that if the delivery timeframe for any additional long haul capacity (from outside the group), they need not limit themselves to just the B787. The options could most certainly include A350-900 or even more -1000s.
