Following many enjoyable discussions across on the Air Cargo thread, it's time to start thinking about Peak 22/23, and contributitons/predictions/commentary/observations for the next few months. Some thought starters:

1 - Who will provide supplementary lift for Purple and Brown? Last year was a mixed bag, and folks like WGN ran a pretty shoddy operation with aircraft grounded all over the place, so perhaps they won't be invited back.

2 - Will NCR get their two newest 744 acquisitions in the air for peak? N663CA & N537CA have been at HHN & XMN respectively for the past month-ish getting some TLC.

3 - With the Ukrainian conflict and other regular DoD work, will we see less peak work from the likes of CKS & NCR who have been kept very busy in Eastern Europe? Maybe a greater opportunity for ABX, Amerijet and others?

4 - On domestic/short haul US/Latin America, what do we see from the likes of SkyBus Cargo, IFL Group, Kalitta II and others?

5 - The usual watching eye on the Classics: Aerostan, MyFreighter, Geosky (incl their new 752F), FlyPro.

Enjoy the ride!

Nothing unusual on property for FX to this point. Atlas birds N475MC and N476MC are still trading off SJU and HNL turns. And, to head off the popular misconception, they are not USPS flights, they are running mixed loads of USPS and FX freight. In the next couple of weeks any additional lift may be popping up, but I wouldn't be surprised to not see much more than this for Purple.

HPRamper wrote:

Nothing unusual on property for FX to this point. Atlas birds N475MC and N476MC are still trading off SJU and HNL turns. And, to head off the popular misconception, they are not USPS flights, they are running mixed loads of USPS and FX freight. In the next couple of weeks any additional lift may be popping up, but I wouldn't be surprised to not see much more than this for Purple.

Thanks for the update HPRamper. I think you're probably right, but do you see this as a demand-side issues relative to the last couple years, or a supply side challenge with less ACMI lift available, or more FX fleet inhouse?

DLNZ wrote:

HPRamper wrote:

Nothing unusual on property for FX to this point. Atlas birds N475MC and N476MC are still trading off SJU and HNL turns. And, to head off the popular misconception, they are not USPS flights, they are running mixed loads of USPS and FX freight. In the next couple of weeks any additional lift may be popping up, but I wouldn't be surprised to not see much more than this for Purple.

Thanks for the update HPRamper. I think you're probably right, but do you see this as a demand-side issues relative to the last couple years, or a supply side challenge with less ACMI lift available, or more FX fleet inhouse?

It's sort of a combination. Peak isn't what it used to be, with steadily increasing volumes and then a slam mid-December. Now people are buying gifts as early as summer and throughout the fall so the purchasing and shipping rush is a lot more spread out. The past failures of UPS and FX and especially FX Ground during Peak have pushed sellers into recommending buying and shipping much earlier. So what we have seen is summer and early fall volumes stay fairly steady instead of dropping off as they used to, at the expense of December pushes. There is also of course the Amazon effect - millions of people do their shopping almost exclusively on Amazon and that freight never touches the FX network.
Fleet-wise, FedEx probably has more domestic lift than we need. There are now 120 767s active with another one or two finishing up touchups to be put into service soon. We very recently took delivery of two in one day. Several of the MD-10s are being activated out of VCV for December, probably for fill-in capacity. No indication of Western Global on property this year at least up to this point - I believe last year they were already running in November.
Overall volumes are just looking a bit soft so no real need for ACMI lift. Weather events will likely be a much bigger factor in the operation than any sort of freight bottleneck.

DLNZ wrote:

2 - Will NCR get their two newest 744 acquisitions in the air for peak? N663CA & N537CA have been at HHN & XMN respectively for the past month-ish getting some TLC.

Great to see this thread pop up, will definitely be keeping a close eye on this one in the coming weeks.

Both (N537CA & N663CA) have exited maintenance at XMN & HHN respectively, ferrying to MCO.
Possibly for paint...a photo on a 'competing website' shows N537CA tail in all-white, contrary to what National posted on their Instagram a while back.
Currently unable to find a photo of N663CA...

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N537CA
N537CA rendering: https://www.instagram.com/p/CjUOyJLsdIJ/

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N663CA
N663CA rendering: https://www.instagram.com/p/Civ34LnMIPq/

VCVSpotter wrote:

DLNZ wrote:

2 - Will NCR get their two newest 744 acquisitions in the air for peak? N663CA & N537CA have been at HHN & XMN respectively for the past month-ish getting some TLC.

Great to see this thread pop up, will definitely be keeping a close eye on this one in the coming weeks.

Both (N537CA & N663CA) have exited maintenance at XMN & HHN respectively, ferrying to MCO.
Possibly for paint...a photo on a 'competing website' shows N537CA tail in all-white, contrary to what National posted on their Instagram a while back.
Currently unable to find a photo of N663CA...

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N537CA
N537CA rendering: https://www.instagram.com/p/CjUOyJLsdIJ/

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N663CA
N663CA rendering: https://www.instagram.com/p/Civ34LnMIPq/

According to a vid from A S Barrett Aviation, a YouTube spotter in MCO, N663CA is still in its full previous livery. They are both parked on the National ramp at MCO, unclear if they will be painted in time for peak.

HPRamper wrote:

Fleet-wise, FedEx probably has more domestic lift than we need. There are now 120 767s active with another one or two finishing up touchups to be put into service soon. We very recently took delivery of two in one day. Several of the MD-10s are being activated out of VCV for December, probably for fill-in capacity. No indication of Western Global on property this year at least up to this point - I believe last year they were already running in November. Overall volumes are just looking a bit soft so no real need for ACMI lift. Weather events will likely be a much bigger factor in the operation than any sort of freight bottleneck.

I find this interesting. How many tails are "several" and how recent were these retirements? I'm assuming that FedEx has not only continued to maintain these planes, but has also retained a number of MD10 qualified crews in reserve for such as undertaking? Considering the unreliability of particular ACMI contractors last season, as well having other business commitments, I suppose it's an understandable (but really surprising) remedy.

aaway wrote:

HPRamper wrote:

Fleet-wise, FedEx probably has more domestic lift than we need. There are now 120 767s active with another one or two finishing up touchups to be put into service soon. We very recently took delivery of two in one day. Several of the MD-10s are being activated out of VCV for December, probably for fill-in capacity. No indication of Western Global on property this year at least up to this point - I believe last year they were already running in November. Overall volumes are just looking a bit soft so no real need for ACMI lift. Weather events will likely be a much bigger factor in the operation than any sort of freight bottleneck.

I find this interesting. How many tails are "several" and how recent were these retirements? I'm assuming that FedEx has not only continued to maintain these planes, but has also retained a number of MD10 qualified crews in reserve for such as undertaking? Considering the unreliability of particular ACMI contractors last season, as well having other business commitments, I suppose it's an understandable (but really surprising) remedy.

That is correct, they retained crew currency on a small cadre of MD10/11 pilots to operate through peak. Come January everyone will be pure MD-11. MD-10 training ended in CYQ3.

aaway wrote:

HPRamper wrote:

Fleet-wise, FedEx probably has more domestic lift than we need. There are now 120 767s active with another one or two finishing up touchups to be put into service soon. We very recently took delivery of two in one day. Several of the MD-10s are being activated out of VCV for December, probably for fill-in capacity. No indication of Western Global on property this year at least up to this point - I believe last year they were already running in November. Overall volumes are just looking a bit soft so no real need for ACMI lift. Weather events will likely be a much bigger factor in the operation than any sort of freight bottleneck.

I find this interesting. How many tails are "several" and how recent were these retirements? I'm assuming that FedEx has not only continued to maintain these planes, but has also retained a number of MD10 qualified crews in reserve for such as undertaking? Considering the unreliability of particular ACMI contractors last season, as well having other business commitments, I suppose it's an understandable (but really surprising) remedy.

These aren't retirements, they were aircraft that were parked a few months ago with the intention of being ready to fly again for peak. We're talking maybe a dozen aircraft total, all MD-10-30s.

Do we know how many cycles they have left?.

Moosefire wrote:

That is correct, they retained crew currency on a small cadre of MD10/11 pilots to operate through peak. Come January everyone will be pure MD-11. MD-10 training ended in CYQ3.

Crew currency on the two fleets is combined, i.e. landings in one count towards the other. What ended was new hire training, so the actual number of MD-11 pilots who do not have MD-10 differences training is quite small.

bennett123 wrote:

Do we know how many cycles they have left?.

Probably plenty if some future owner wanted to push them through a heavy check.

FX was parking them with enough use left on them before the next HMV to soldier through peak. After that, it's a question of dollars.

Spacepope wrote:

bennett123 wrote:

Do we know how many cycles they have left?.

Probably plenty if some future owner wanted to push them through a heavy check.

FX was parking them with enough use left on them before the next HMV to soldier through peak. After that, it's a question of dollars.

Is them being MD10 rather than DC10 a plus or a minus??

It would be surprising if A) Fedex sells or leases them to another party or B) any party would want to try to spin up the fleet, with the exception of WGA, they would have to do from certification square one. The MD-10s are on the MD-11 type certificate, but do retain a large number of differences, enough for differences training and their own sim. The MD-11 itself is an airframe increasingly on borrowed time at both UPS and FX.

Likely the last MD-10 operating will be the ORBIS bird.

bennett123 wrote:

Spacepope wrote:

bennett123 wrote:

Do we know how many cycles they have left?.

Probably plenty if some future owner wanted to push them through a heavy check.

FX was parking them with enough use left on them before the next HMV to soldier through peak. After that, it's a question of dollars.

Is them being MD10 rather than DC10 a plus or a minus??

There’s really not any available DC-10s anyway since the only operators of that type now are the USAF, 10 Tanker and Omega. It’s pretty much MD or nothing.

Spacepope wrote:

aaway wrote:

HPRamper wrote:

Fleet-wise, FedEx probably has more domestic lift than we need. There are now 120 767s active with another one or two finishing up touchups to be put into service soon. We very recently took delivery of two in one day. Several of the MD-10s are being activated out of VCV for December, probably for fill-in capacity. No indication of Western Global on property this year at least up to this point - I believe last year they were already running in November. Overall volumes are just looking a bit soft so no real need for ACMI lift. Weather events will likely be a much bigger factor in the operation than any sort of freight bottleneck.

I find this interesting. How many tails are "several" and how recent were these retirements? I'm assuming that FedEx has not only continued to maintain these planes, but has also retained a number of MD10 qualified crews in reserve for such as undertaking? Considering the unreliability of particular ACMI contractors last season, as well having other business commitments, I suppose it's an understandable (but really surprising) remedy.

These aren't retirements, they were aircraft that were parked a few months ago with the intention of being ready to fly again for peak. We're talking maybe a dozen aircraft total, all MD-10-30s.

Thanks for the additional color. Is the MD-10 fleet slated for withdrawal from service once peak season is done?

Spacepope wrote:

I find this interesting. How many tails are "several" and how recent were these retirements? I'm assuming that FedEx has not only continued to maintain these planes, but has also retained a number of MD10 qualified crews in reserve for such as undertaking? Considering the unreliability of particular ACMI contractors last season, as well having other business commitments, I suppose it's an understandable (but really surprising) remedy.

These aren't retirements, they were aircraft that were parked a few months ago with the intention of being ready to fly again for peak. We're talking maybe a dozen aircraft total, all MD-10-30s.

Thanks for the additional color. I take it the MD-10 fleet slated for withdrawal from FX service once peak season is done, yes?

aaway wrote:

Spacepope wrote:

I find this interesting. How many tails are "several" and how recent were these retirements? I'm assuming that FedEx has not only continued to maintain these planes, but has also retained a number of MD10 qualified crews in reserve for such as undertaking? Considering the unreliability of particular ACMI contractors last season, as well having other business commitments, I suppose it's an understandable (but really surprising) remedy.

These aren't retirements, they were aircraft that were parked a few months ago with the intention of being ready to fly again for peak. We're talking maybe a dozen aircraft total, all MD-10-30s.

Thanks for the additional color. I take it the MD-10 fleet slated for withdrawal from FX service once peak season is done, yes?

Correct

Moosefire wrote:

aaway wrote:

Spacepope wrote:

I find this interesting. How many tails are "several" and how recent were these retirements? I'm assuming that FedEx has not only continued to maintain these planes, but has also retained a number of MD10 qualified crews in reserve for such as undertaking? Considering the unreliability of particular ACMI contractors last season, as well having other business commitments, I suppose it's an understandable (but really surprising) remedy.

These aren't retirements, they were aircraft that were parked a few months ago with the intention of being ready to fly again for peak. We're talking maybe a dozen aircraft total, all MD-10-30s.

Thanks for the additional color. I take it the MD-10 fleet slated for withdrawal from FX service once peak season is done, yes?

Correct

Thank you, sir.

On top a that , only the activation of the stored ex LH MD11F N649FE has been completed in 2022 (it took approx 8 months !)
The FedEx activation plans for N647FE and possibe one more (ship 646 or 648) before the 2022 peak, are canceled , due the predicted soft demand.

HotelSoap wrote:

It would be surprising if A) Fedex sells or leases them to another party or B) any party would want to try to spin up the fleet, with the exception of WGA, they would have to do from certification square one. The MD-10s are on the MD-11 type certificate, but do retain a large number of differences, enough for differences training and their own sim. The MD-11 itself is an airframe increasingly on borrowed time at both UPS and FX.

Likely the last MD-10 operating will be the ORBIS bird.

Another operator in South America has one

Just found this thread. Copy and paste from the Air Cargo thread.

Peak Season flying has started over here at 'Giant'

Currently, as of Nov 20th, we have two 744s operating for UPS on SDF/IAH and SDF/EWR. Should pick up more routes the closer we get to Christmas.

As for FedEx, only two 744s this year. But I don't know if I would consider it peak flying since these two aircraft have been doing MEM/SJU and MEM/HNL flights since the summer.

Spacepope wrote:

VCVSpotter wrote:

DLNZ wrote:

2 - Will NCR get their two newest 744 acquisitions in the air for peak? N663CA & N537CA have been at HHN & XMN respectively for the past month-ish getting some TLC.

Great to see this thread pop up, will definitely be keeping a close eye on this one in the coming weeks.

Both (N537CA & N663CA) have exited maintenance at XMN & HHN respectively, ferrying to MCO.
Possibly for paint...a photo on a 'competing website' shows N537CA tail in all-white, contrary to what National posted on their Instagram a while back.
Currently unable to find a photo of N663CA...

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N537CA
N537CA rendering: https://www.instagram.com/p/CjUOyJLsdIJ/

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N663CA
N663CA rendering: https://www.instagram.com/p/Civ34LnMIPq/

According to a vid from A S Barrett Aviation, a YouTube spotter in MCO, N663CA is still in its full previous livery. They are both parked on the National ramp at MCO, unclear if they will be painted in time for peak.

I again saw both yesterday 11/21 on the ramp at MCO,,,,One has Pharma titles on the fuselage and tail. neither has moved for the last 2 weeks..

UPS Peak Carriers 2022 (14 Nov - 25 Dec)
ABX - 763
ATN - 763
CKS - 744
GTI - 744/763
KYE - 744
TSU - 722
WGN -MD11

Looks like no Northern Air Cargo 737s from a few years ago and the Western Global 744 but a health schedule nonetheless.

My favorite thread of the year! Looks like the WGN fleet has deployed to UPS - five MD-11s have arrived at SDF November 27-28 - N412SN, N542KD, N546JN, N799JN and N415JN.

No Kalitta Charters 722’s either?

UPS757Pilot wrote:

UPS Peak Carriers 2022 (14 Nov - 25 Dec)
ABX - 763
ATN - 763
CKS - 744
GTI - 744/763
KYE - 744
TSU - 722
WGN -MD11

Looks like no Northern Air Cargo 737s from a few years ago and the Western Global 744 but a health schedule nonetheless.

ottergoose wrote:

My favorite thread of the year! Looks like the WGN fleet has deployed to UPS - five MD-11s have arrived at SDF November 27-28 - N412SN, N542KD, N546JN, N799JN and N415JN.

It’ll be good to have them break closer to home rather than in Asia and ANC! I look forward to see how they hold up over the next few weeks!

Atlas now has 4 747-400s running SDF to IAH/ONT/EWR/PHL. Later this week MSP and PDX get added.

And one 767-300, N1619A, doing SDF/OMA rounds.

To correct my previous post, there are four Western Global MD-11Fs assigned to UPS right now, not five as I said before. N412SN, N542KD, N799JN and N415JN are the correct tails.

N546JN is not in UPS service, at least of November 29.

ottergoose wrote:

To correct my previous post, there are four Western Global MD-11Fs assigned to UPS right now, not five as I said before. N412SN, N542KD, N799JN and N415JN are the correct tails.

N546JN is not in UPS service, at least of November 29.

There are only 3 KD MD-11s on the schedule; looks like N412SN is hanging out at SDF.

Also N281FL, N216WE and N395CM have started flying for UPS.

I’ve noticed in the last few days USAJET is sending most of their fleet around the country with 4-5 stopping at SDF on their way back to KYIP. Are they involved in peak this year? They’ve had 16 flights into Yip from SDF since Monday with more later today

Kalitta, SkyLease Cargo, and ABX will join the UPS fleet next week; looks like five from Kalitta, and a pair each from SkyLease Cargo and ABX. UPS will end up flying ~1,400 wet-lease flights this year.

A second ATI 767, N255CM, started for UPS on December 5.

dtw9 wrote:

I’ve noticed in the last few days USAJET is sending most of their fleet around the country with 4-5 stopping at SDF on their way back to KYIP. Are they involved in peak this year? They’ve had 16 flights into Yip from SDF since Monday with more later today

A lot of auto parts charters are tagging up at SDF lately, I would assume these flights are related to that industry and are not hauling parcels.

A "pair" of 744s from Skylease Cargo is their whole fleet. But they're extremely-reliable.

Never any dust under those wheels... You can look at their schedule: N903AR, N904AR.

That is a lot of extra lift for a "low" peak season this year.

jjbiv wrote:

That is a lot of extra lift for a "low" peak season this year.

We'll have actual data soon, but anecdotally I'm already seeing normal 2-day delivery get pushed out 4-5 days.

Spacepope wrote:

jjbiv wrote:

That is a lot of extra lift for a "low" peak season this year.

We'll have actual data soon, but anecdotally I'm already seeing normal 2-day delivery get pushed out 4-5 days.

Same here. This could be continued from Cyber Monday fulfillment, but it is interesting. I'm waiting for FedEx Ground to go kaplooie, as it does every year, in 3...2...1.... We'll see.

On the smaller side, does anyone know what Peak routes Ameriflight has picked up for the season? Remember we used to always get some oddball ones when I was there a few years ago.

‘Tis the best season!

jreeves96 wrote:

Atlas now has 4 747-400s running SDF to IAH/ONT/EWR/PHL. Later this week MSP and PDX get added.

And one 767-300, N1619A, doing SDF/OMA rounds.

Any idea if DEN will be getting UPS 747's this season??

xjetflyer2001 wrote:

jreeves96 wrote:

Atlas now has 4 747-400s running SDF to IAH/ONT/EWR/PHL. Later this week MSP and PDX get added.

And one 767-300, N1619A, doing SDF/OMA rounds.

Any idea if DEN will be getting UPS 747's this season??

Sorry no UPS or contracted 747s planned. UPS MD11s will be the largest jets we operate to DEN this peak.

xjetflyer2001 wrote:

jreeves96 wrote:

Atlas now has 4 747-400s running SDF to IAH/ONT/EWR/PHL. Later this week MSP and PDX get added.

And one 767-300, N1619A, doing SDF/OMA rounds.

Any idea if DEN will be getting UPS 747's this season??

I don't believe we'll be operating anything to DEN. Do know ATI has a route with their 767-200.

Spacepope wrote:

dtw9 wrote:

I’ve noticed in the last few days USAJET is sending most of their fleet around the country with 4-5 stopping at SDF on their way back to KYIP. Are they involved in peak this year? They’ve had 16 flights into Yip from SDF since Monday with more later today

A lot of auto parts charters are tagging up at SDF lately, I would assume these flights are related to that industry and are not hauling parcels.

Ford plant in spittin' distance of the airport.

UPS757Pilot wrote:

xjetflyer2001 wrote:

jreeves96 wrote:

Atlas now has 4 747-400s running SDF to IAH/ONT/EWR/PHL. Later this week MSP and PDX get added.

And one 767-300, N1619A, doing SDF/OMA rounds.

Any idea if DEN will be getting UPS 747's this season??

Sorry no UPS or contracted 747s planned. UPS MD11s will be the largest jets we operate to DEN this peak.

Thank You

jreeves96 wrote:

xjetflyer2001 wrote:

jreeves96 wrote:

Atlas now has 4 747-400s running SDF to IAH/ONT/EWR/PHL. Later this week MSP and PDX get added.

And one 767-300, N1619A, doing SDF/OMA rounds.

Any idea if DEN will be getting UPS 747's this season??

I don't believe we'll be operating anything to DEN. Do know ATI has a route with their 767-200.

Thank You

Since we like those 747s, a National flight on a military (but maybe peak military) mission left Guam a few days ago, presumably headed for ANC, then turned around about a half-hour later after cruising at FL310 for a while. It flew to a point east of Guam and circled for almost an hour, then came in and landed. Don't know what the issue was, but it's been on the ground for 6 days now. N952CA.

wjcandee wrote:

Since we like those 747s, a National flight on a military (but maybe peak military) mission left Guam a few days ago, presumably headed for ANC, then turned around about a half-hour later after cruising at FL310 for a while. It flew to a point east of Guam and circled for almost an hour, then came in and landed. Don't know what the issue was, but it's been on the ground for 6 days now. N952CA.

How interesting, an untimely air return as they are always flat out and still have the two new acquisitions undergoing confirmity. It got me thinking about other remote stations some of our 'regulars' have been grounded at. I think it was last year National had an extended period grounded at Agadir after a diversion, and they also had one grounded at that Jordanian allied air base for a while also.

wjcandee wrote:

Since we like those 747s, a National flight on a military (but maybe peak military) mission left Guam a few days ago, presumably headed for ANC, then turned around about a half-hour later after cruising at FL310 for a while. It flew to a point east of Guam and circled for almost an hour, then came in and landed. Don't know what the issue was, but it's been on the ground for 6 days now. N952CA.

I’m not sure if it means anything but I do know ANC had an absolute meltdown, at least on the Atlas side of things, a few days ago. I was home with Covid but kept tabs on our Teams Chat and looked like it was a parking issue mixed with weather. Multiple diversions to FAI and PDX.

Edit : Nevermind, looking at the route ANC had nothing to do with it. Aircraft is now on the ground in ANC after making a stop at PVG.

Australia Post chartering Atlas Air 747 flying to deliver parcels to Western Australia.

Prior to Covid, QF operated multiple widebody flights a day between Sydney, Melbourne and Perth but many of the flights have been replaced with smaller 737s, slashing cargo capacity leaving Australia Post with a backlog.

https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/australi ... -c-9143898

ABX's N317CM and N767AX have joined UPS this week, as have Kalitta's N705CK, N707CK, N709CK, N710CK, N713CK, and SkyLease Cargo's N903AR and N904AR. 27 wet-lease aircraft altogether, per my analysis.

Anyone know the story of the Kalitta 74s operating out of Memphis? FedEx is just supposed to be two atlas jets but kalitta appears to be there nearly daily (today had tow flights departing back to back). If they’re not operating for fedex any guesses?