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VS11
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CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:42 pm

Cathay Eyes New Freighters, Medium-haul Aircraft

https://airwaysmag.com/cathay-freighter ... -aircraft/

"Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific (CX) announced that it was in talks with aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus about potential orders for its medium-haul fleet and cargo fleet.
...
In October, in an interview with Bloomberg, Mr. Lam mentioned that the carrier was open to new aircraft but that deliveries would have to wait until 2025, which is when Hong Kong International Airport’s (HKG) third runway will be fully operational.
...
Cathay’s long-haul fleet consists of Boeing 777-300ERs and Airbus A350s. The carrier also has orders for additional A350s and the new Boeing 777-9. The carrier’s medium-haul fleet is made up of Airbus A330-300s and Airbus A321neos.

While the A321neos are new and mostly operate the domestic and regional network the 31 A330s in the fleet are between seven and twenty-one years of age. The freighter fleet is operated by 20 Boeing 747F. This includes the older Boeing 747-400Fs (13.8 years old) and the newer Boeing 747-8F (9.7 years old)"

So time to make bets. ;) For cargo, 777-8 seems like a natural choice in view of their 777-9 order. For medium-haul, more 321N's seem a given. But the A330s replacement will be an interesting one.
 
jbs2886
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:02 pm

I think Boeing has the upper hand here because, unfortunately, CX can convert the 779X order to 778XF and 787-10. I think we were guessing CX's 779X order is in the ASC adjustments for Boeing already.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:02 pm

Hmm third runway equals more slots equals more 321Ns and to keep the fleet simple 10-15 350s in regional configuration. Freighter should be 777Fs.
 
StTim
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:08 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Hmm third runway equals more slots equals more 321Ns and to keep the fleet simple 10-15 350s in regional configuration. Freighter should be 777Fs.

They would need to be 778F's due to the global restrictions on emissions.

The A350F may make sense given they operate passenger versions.

I suspect it all comes down to the credits they may have on the 779 delays.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:09 pm

I don’t see why the 777F would be dramatically more favoured than the A350F. I could see a world where CX orders A350F and A350 regional with more A321neo for thinner routes. It could also be a split A350F and 777F order as there would be part and pilot commonality with passenger variants on both sides.

I doubt they’d go for 787, introducing a whole new type comes with its own set of complications.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:37 pm

Bets on 777X to 787 conversion...
77F is likely to replace the 74F, but I could see some P2F from their own 77W fleet.
Additional 321s are likely. If not now, at least down the line.
Subsidiary LD has experience with 330 P2F. If positive and if they are looking for more of a regional-sized freighter than the 74/77, their own fleet - which is due for retirement - could provide a good feedstock for conversions.
 
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Heavierthanair
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:03 pm

Hongkong is part of China now and thus Cathay Pacific is essentially a Chinese airline, thus I think we should also consider politics playing part in this future order. Both Airbus and Boeing have suitable aircraft for Cathay's requirements. So I guess this comes down to a combination of pricing and politics. Boeing is not exactly favored by the Chinese right now, however that could change overnight...

The outcome of that competition may also be an indication about the other Chinese airline procurement plans. Once again, interesting times ahead :twocents:
 
jbs2886
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:35 pm

Heavierthanair wrote:
Hongkong is part of China now and thus Cathay Pacific is essentially a Chinese airline, thus I think we should also consider politics playing part in this future order. Both Airbus and Boeing have suitable aircraft for Cathay's requirements. So I guess this comes down to a combination of pricing and politics. Boeing is not exactly favored by the Chinese right now, however that could change overnight...

The outcome of that competition may also be an indication about the other Chinese airline procurement plans. Once again, interesting times ahead :twocents:


Yes and no. We haven't seen any indication CAAC is controlling orders for CX (unless I missed it).
 
airbazar
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:43 pm

VS11 wrote:
So time to make bets. ;) For cargo, 777-8 seems like a natural choice in view of their 777-9 order. For medium-haul, more 321N's seem a given. But the A330s replacement will be an interesting one.


IMO it's highly debatable at this moment whether CX will ever take delivery of the 779's sue to a significant reduction in passenger traffic. More so in the current political environment. And when I see "medium haul" in the context of present day Cathay what that really means to me is that CX is looking to downsize.

jbs2886 wrote:
Yes and no. We haven't seen any indication CAAC is controlling orders for CX (unless I missed it).

You'll see that when it's time to pay.
 
jfk777
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:39 pm

The reason Cathay needs Medium Haul planes is their A330-300 fleet is old with some planes over 20 years old. The A330 has been around 30 years. 787-10 are better regional hauler than the A330-900, CX doesn't need all that range the A339 provides. Cathay's long haul is fine with their 777-300ER and A350-900/1000 fleets. It would be sad if the
777-9 never shows up and those planes are 777-8 freighters. The A350-10000 with no First Class is not the same.
 
HTCone
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:06 pm

Do Cathay pilots operate both the 330 & 350? If so that could play a factor. I remember the CAAC refused to allow them rate their pilots on 330, 340 and 350 concurrently which likely factored into the retirement of the 340. Based on that principle I can't see them rating pilots on 777 classic, 777X and 787 concurrently. Something would need to give there. Would 330ceo (for say p2fs) and 330Neo be considered 2 types by CAAC for licencing?
 
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PolarRoute
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:19 pm

jfk777 wrote:
The reason Cathay needs Medium Haul planes is their A330-300 fleet is old with some planes over 20 years old. The A330 has been around 30 years. 787-10 are better regional hauler than the A330-900, CX doesn't need all that range the A339 provides.


The same can be said about the 781's capacity at CX though, especially in the context of 333 replacement. The 781 might have an upper hand in CASM, but trip cost wise 339 wins out. I's say for 333 replacement purposes, the 339 is more suitable, with the extra range giving CX some flexibility; capacity can't be broken down into pieces to provide flexibility.

Re. the possible regionally configured 359. How does the aircraft fare against the 781? They burn about the same amount of fuel AFAIK, and since the 781 have more cabin floor space it'll also have lower CASM. But is the CASM gap large enough to warrant a whole new aircraft type?
We've seen JL deciding to 'abuse' the 359 for domestic operations and SQ going for both 359 and 781 in their regional network. So I have to wonder, what's the 359's performace like in short missions?
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:37 pm

Regarding the freighter order, CX flies 748Fs and 744Fs. This order round will be to replace the latter, plus or minus. They may not need 778F capability for that.

Airbus is targeting the 744F replacement market with the 350F.
 
Rogers99
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:43 pm

PolarRoute wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
The reason Cathay needs Medium Haul planes is their A330-300 fleet is old with some planes over 20 years old. The A330 has been around 30 years. 787-10 are better regional hauler than the A330-900, CX doesn't need all that range the A339 provides.


The same can be said about the 781's capacity at CX though, especially in the context of 333 replacement. The 781 might have an upper hand in CASM, but trip cost wise 339 wins out. I's say for 333 replacement purposes, the 339 is more suitable, with the extra range giving CX some flexibility; capacity can't be broken down into pieces to provide flexibility.

Re. the possible regionally configured 359. How does the aircraft fare against the 781? They burn about the same amount of fuel AFAIK, and since the 781 have more cabin floor space it'll also have lower CASM. But is the CASM gap large enough to warrant a whole new aircraft type?
We've seen JL deciding to 'abuse' the 359 for domestic operations and SQ going for both 359 and 781 in their regional network. So I have to wonder, what's the 359's performace like in short missions?

By the time look at compensation credits, the 787 package might look very attractive.

Then convert 779 to 778F. Lufthansa showed us earlier in the year what compensation credits can really do for you

You have 21 777Xs on order, you won’t need more than 14 really all of which will have first class. Use on major European cities. LHR, CDG, FRA the rest on North America: JFK, LAX etc

Convert the remaining to 778F.

Use your credits for 787-10. Is it bigger than the 330neo? Yes but also carries way more cargo which I imagine is big in the apac region. The fuel burn difference is tiny. If not 787-9, still has far more productivity with still better cargo capability than the 339 and more flexibility

Boeing will be very willing to do that if it means their order book can be more solid.
 
jfk777
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:47 pm

PolarRoute wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
The reason Cathay needs Medium Haul planes is their A330-300 fleet is old with some planes over 20 years old. The A330 has been around 30 years. 787-10 are better regional hauler than the A330-900, CX doesn't need all that range the A339 provides.


The same can be said about the 781's capacity at CX though, especially in the context of 333 replacement. The 781 might have an upper hand in CASM, but trip cost wise 339 wins out. I's say for 333 replacement purposes, the 339 is more suitable, with the extra range giving CX some flexibility; capacity can't be broken down into pieces to provide flexibility.

Re. the possible regionally configured 359. How does the aircraft fare against the 781? They burn about the same amount of fuel AFAIK, and since the 781 have more cabin floor space it'll also have lower CASM. But is the CASM gap large enough to warrant a whole new aircraft type?
We've seen JL deciding to 'abuse' the 359 for domestic operations and SQ going for both 359 and 781 in their regional network. So I have to wonder, what's the 359's performance like in short missions?



Regional in Asia and Japanese domestic are two different things, JAL's A350 domestic operation is often no more than two hours and often one hour from Haneda to Itami. Singapore does operate some very short sectors to Jakarta and KL, Regional in Asia is also a 5 hour flight to India or 7 hours to Korea and Japan.

Singapore's regional A350's and 787-10 probably have average sectors approaching 4 hours. Regional flying for Singapore is also secondary Australian cities. Only in the Pacific is a regional flight the same time as JFK to LHR.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:36 pm

What about 777/A330 conversions? They already have in-house feedstock.
 
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PolarRoute
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:19 am

Rogers99 wrote:
PolarRoute wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
The reason Cathay needs Medium Haul planes is their A330-300 fleet is old with some planes over 20 years old. The A330 has been around 30 years. 787-10 are better regional hauler than the A330-900, CX doesn't need all that range the A339 provides.


The same can be said about the 781's capacity at CX though, especially in the context of 333 replacement. The 781 might have an upper hand in CASM, but trip cost wise 339 wins out. I's say for 333 replacement purposes, the 339 is more suitable, with the extra range giving CX some flexibility; capacity can't be broken down into pieces to provide flexibility.

Re. the possible regionally configured 359. How does the aircraft fare against the 781? They burn about the same amount of fuel AFAIK, and since the 781 have more cabin floor space it'll also have lower CASM. But is the CASM gap large enough to warrant a whole new aircraft type?
We've seen JL deciding to 'abuse' the 359 for domestic operations and SQ going for both 359 and 781 in their regional network. So I have to wonder, what's the 359's performace like in short missions?

By the time look at compensation credits, the 787 package might look very attractive.

Then convert 779 to 778F. Lufthansa showed us earlier in the year what compensation credits can really do for you

You have 21 777Xs on order, you won’t need more than 14 really all of which will have first class. Use on major European cities. LHR, CDG, FRA the rest on North America: JFK, LAX etc

Convert the remaining to 778F.

Use your credits for 787-10. Is it bigger than the 330neo? Yes but also carries way more cargo which I imagine is big in the apac region. The fuel burn difference is tiny. If not 787-9, still has far more productivity with still better cargo capability than the 339 and more flexibility

Boeing will be very willing to do that if it means their order book can be more solid.

Sure, they do have that compensation credit, but I'd have thought their current predicament, which puts them in the position to consider exercising those credit toward swapping 777X orders to 781s' in the first place, was something temporary rather than permanent. In which case CX would need those 777Xs anyways, so why change orders and waste that credit and add a new type when they can order what they have a good amount of experience on, and infrastructure pertinent to the operation of such.

Just kick the can down the line for a bit and go for what you're familiar and confident with. Heck, the 777X has already been delayed beyond 2025. CX could have already recovered by that time and in need of such capacity.

jfk777 wrote:
Regional in Asia and Japanese domestic are two different things, JAL's A350 domestic operation is often no more than two hours and often one hour from Haneda to Itami. Singapore does operate some very short sectors to Jakarta and KL, Regional in Asia is also a 5 hour flight to India or 7 hours to Korea and Japan.


On which sectors the 781 is still the king of, no? I get that 'domestic' and 'regional' are two different things, but nevertheless both of them still fall short of the first kink on the 781's payload-range chart.
So what I'm intrigued by is that in a comparable sense, how does the 359 perform on those relatively short sectors? Because if the numbers are good enough, I also see CX topping up 359s for regional use as well.
 
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zkojq
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:30 am

TWA772LR wrote:
What about 777/A330 conversions? They already have in-house feedstock.


:checkmark: This was my first thought. With money tight and the need to reduce short/medium term CAPEX, converting some of their existing A333s and 77Ws to freighters seems like a prudent medium term solution.
 
CX Flyboy
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:37 am

jbs2886 wrote:
Heavierthanair wrote:
Hongkong is part of China now and thus Cathay Pacific is essentially a Chinese airline, thus I think we should also consider politics playing part in this future order. Both Airbus and Boeing have suitable aircraft for Cathay's requirements. So I guess this comes down to a combination of pricing and politics. Boeing is not exactly favored by the Chinese right now, however that could change overnight...

The outcome of that competition may also be an indication about the other Chinese airline procurement plans. Once again, interesting times ahead :twocents:


Yes and no. We haven't seen any indication CAAC is controlling orders for CX (unless I missed it).


CAAC do not have such power over CX yet.
 
CX Flyboy
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:45 am

airbazar wrote:
VS11 wrote:
So time to make bets. ;) For cargo, 777-8 seems like a natural choice in view of their 777-9 order. For medium-haul, more 321N's seem a given. But the A330s replacement will be an interesting one.


IMO it's highly debatable at this moment whether CX will ever take delivery of the 779's sue to a significant reduction in passenger traffic. More so in the current political environment. And when I see "medium haul" in the context of present day Cathay what that really means to me is that CX is looking to downsize.

jbs2886 wrote:
Yes and no. We haven't seen any indication CAAC is controlling orders for CX (unless I missed it).

You'll see that when it's time to pay.



CX have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to getting the 779. First class cabin studies are going full steam ahead and the simulators will be on their way before long. There is a potential for numbers to be changed but we would be very surprised to hear if the entire order is changed. It would be very short-sighted especially with a lack of other aircraft to take it's place. The A350-1000 isnt suited to having a large fancy first class cabin and retain enough carrying capacity. There is definitely a need for the 779 and as we are now super short of pilots, in the short term anyway, we will be having less frequency to our destination and thus filling a bigger plane is easier to do.
 
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flee
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:47 am

I think it is significant that CX will be looking at the freighter as well as medium haul at the same time. That means that cargo considerations also weigh heavily on the medium haul order. That may rule the A321N out.
 
behramjee
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 3:36 pm

flee wrote:
I think it is significant that CX will be looking at the freighter as well as medium haul at the same time. That means that cargo considerations also weigh heavily on the medium haul order. That may rule the A321N out.


Not at all as CX needs the A321 to serve many Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities across the ASEAN region plus on certain existing routes which are operated multiple daily but don’t need a WB for all flights.

zkojq wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
What about 777/A330 conversions? They already have in-house feedstock.


:checkmark: This was my first thought. With money tight and the need to reduce short/medium term CAPEX, converting some of their existing A333s and 77Ws to freighters seems like a prudent medium term solution.


100% agree

jfk777 wrote:
The reason Cathay needs Medium Haul planes is their A330-300 fleet is old with some planes over 20 years old. The A330 has been around 30 years. 787-10 are better regional hauler than the A330-900, CX doesn't need all that range the A339 provides. Cathay's long haul is fine with their 777-300ER and A350-900/1000 fleets. It would be sad if the
777-9 never shows up and those planes are 777-8 freighters. The A350-10000 with no First Class is not the same.


The B781 can fly 12-12.5 hours with a full payload of pax and luggage whilst the A339Neo can do so on a maximum 11:30 hours flight.

With consistent delays coming for the B77X program and with CX eager to upgrade its freighter fleet sooner rather than later, I feel the edge may lie with Airbus here with their known aggressive pricing tactics for a blue chip customer such as CX. If CX commits to a large bulk order of A321Neos + A359s for regional flying + 20 A35Fs to fully replace the B74Fs then for sure Airbus will offer them a financial package irresistible to turn down.

However, CX does not have a lot of pending Airbus orders to play around with like it does with the 21 B779s so this is where I feel they will drive a hard bargain with Boeing since they are not in the strong financial position they once were pre 2018 riots.

A scenario here can be CX exchanging the entire 21 B779 order for B778 freighters as a tit for tat replacement for its 20 B747Fs or order a mix of 10 B77Fs (for faster initial delivery to replace the B744Fs) + 10 B778Fs for delivery later on.
 
Sermons
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:02 pm

airbazar wrote:
VS11 wrote:
So time to make bets. ;) For cargo, 777-8 seems like a natural choice in view of their 777-9 order. For medium-haul, more 321N's seem a given. But the A330s replacement will be an interesting one.


IMO it's highly debatable at this moment whether CX will ever take delivery of the 779's sue to a significant reduction in passenger traffic. More so in the current political environment. And when I see "medium haul" in the context of present day Cathay what that really means to me is that CX is looking to downsize.

jbs2886 wrote:
Yes and no. We haven't seen any indication CAAC is controlling orders for CX (unless I missed it).

You'll see that when it's time to pay.



Well the first 779 is not arriving anytime soon , probably 3 to 4 years from now . That's alot of time , for passenger traffic to recover don't you think ?
 
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scbriml
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:14 pm

flee wrote:
That may rule the A321N out.


CX currently operates five of the 30 A321s they have on order, so I suspect they have a pretty good knowledge of exactly what it can do for them.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:22 pm

StTim wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Hmm third runway equals more slots equals more 321Ns and to keep the fleet simple 10-15 350s in regional configuration. Freighter should be 777Fs.

They would need to be 778F's due to the global restrictions on emissions.


Can you explain this please?
 
StTim
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:31 pm

New build 777F's are not able to be produced after 2026 as they do not meet new standards.

https://leehamnews.com/2022/06/16/faa-a ... 767f-777f/

There are bargains to be had for end of the run versions but I am not sure they could meet CX's plans.
 
jbs2886
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:57 pm

StTim wrote:
New build 777F's are not able to be produced after 2026 as they do not meet new standards.

https://leehamnews.com/2022/06/16/faa-a ... 767f-777f/

There are bargains to be had for end of the run versions but I am not sure they could meet CX's plans.


No, can't be produced starting in 2028, per the article. "The FAA’s move means that Boeing’s popular 767-300ERF and 777-200LRF can’t be produced from 2028."
 
StTim
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:27 pm

The article seems a little date confused. I agree with your statement but it also says “ to reduce emissions and noise in commercial jets and turboprops by 2027.” By 2027 implies the end of 2026.

But even end of 2027 means delivered by then. You cannot start production in December 2027 and then deliver in day 2028 or 2029. So I suspect Boeing will not actually want to have planned deliveries after June 2027.
 
jbs2886
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:59 pm

StTim wrote:
The article seems a little date confused. I agree with your statement but it also says “ to reduce emissions and noise in commercial jets and turboprops by 2027.” By 2027 implies the end of 2026.

But even end of 2027 means delivered by then. You cannot start production in December 2027 and then deliver in day 2028 or 2029. So I suspect Boeing will not actually want to have planned deliveries after June 2027.


Leeham tends to be extremely sloppy on editing and proofreading, so good point that the article is confusing.
 
CX Flyboy
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:08 am

I'll repeat myself in saying that CX has no intention to give up on the 779 despite what some of you are speculating. The numbers could be fine tuned however.

Freighterwise, ive not heard much internally about whether they are pro-350F or 778F.

As for the A321Neo, as they saw during the pandemic, they thought that it would be the saviour of the company because it was a smaller plane and with low demand it would have suited the operation but in reality because it doesn't carry cargo, it was pretty useless on the network. The handful of flights it did/does was to keep crew training going. Once the whole network is back on strong, then the Neo fleet will have it's purpose flying to small destinations where there is no cargo demand, or as a side-act to more than one daily flight alongside a widebody flight that carries the cargo. Cargo is an extremely big part of the CX business and this should not be underestimated. That said, there are rumours that as a CX group (including HKExpress), there would be space for around 50 of them in the fleet.

As for the A350/787/339, anyone's guess is as good as mine although I did hear a rumour that the 339 has been discounted but I dont know whether there is any truth in this.

Anyway, I've heard that the decision has been made already and they are just finishing details and waiting to organise an announcement at some point.
 
Rogers99
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:02 am

CX Flyboy wrote:
I'll repeat myself in saying that CX has no intention to give up on the 779 despite what some of you are speculating. The numbers could be fine tuned however.

Freighterwise, ive not heard much internally about whether they are pro-350F or 778F.

As for the A321Neo, as they saw during the pandemic, they thought that it would be the saviour of the company because it was a smaller plane and with low demand it would have suited the operation but in reality because it doesn't carry cargo, it was pretty useless on the network. The handful of flights it did/does was to keep crew training going. Once the whole network is back on strong, then the Neo fleet will have it's purpose flying to small destinations where there is no cargo demand, or as a side-act to more than one daily flight alongside a widebody flight that carries the cargo. Cargo is an extremely big part of the CX business and this should not be underestimated. That said, there are rumours that as a CX group (including HKExpress), there would be space for around 50 of them in the fleet.

As for the A350/787/339, anyone's guess is as good as mine although I did hear a rumour that the 339 has been discounted but I dont know whether there is any truth in this.

Anyway, I've heard that the decision has been made already and they are just finishing details and waiting to organise an announcement at some point.

If the 339 has been discounted that’s really sad. Given cathay has 40 330s

350 or 787. A battle we are all familiar with. Let’s see who wins

What I would say the 787-10 in cathay livery would just be gorgeous. But that’s just me anyway
 
VS11
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:13 am

Rogers99 wrote:
If the 339 has been discounted that’s really sad. Given cathay has 40 330s

350 or 787. A battle we are all familiar with. Let’s see who wins.


If it really comes down to this, I don’t see why they wouldn’t pick the A350, unless they are really unhappy with it. Why add a new type, if you can avoid it?
 
Rogers99
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Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:26 am

VS11 wrote:
Rogers99 wrote:
If the 339 has been discounted that’s really sad. Given cathay has 40 330s

350 or 787. A battle we are all familiar with. Let’s see who wins.


If it really comes down to this, I don’t see why they wouldn’t pick the A350, unless they are really unhappy with it. Why add a new type, if you can avoid it?

That is true. But we have to see, they may want more cargo space of the 787-10 vs the 359, the 787 package maybe cheaper. They may see the 359 as “too much plane” as some argue, All sorts of things but you are right it is the 359s order to lose.

I’d imagine they have a lot of compensation credits from Boeing that they have not used. So that may change the economic equation of both aircraft.

Remember Lufthansa during the second round of widbebody orders put the 787 v 350 and the 787 came out on top even though they had many 350s on order. I was surprised by that if I’m honest

So with these things you never know.
 
VS11
Topic Author
Posts: 2017
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:31 am

Rogers99 wrote:
VS11 wrote:
Rogers99 wrote:
If the 339 has been discounted that’s really sad. Given cathay has 40 330s

350 or 787. A battle we are all familiar with. Let’s see who wins.


If it really comes down to this, I don’t see why they wouldn’t pick the A350, unless they are really unhappy with it. Why add a new type, if you can avoid it?

That is true. But we have to see, they may want more cargo space of the 787-10 vs the 359, the 787 package maybe cheaper. They may see the 359 as “too much plane” as some argue, All sorts of things but you are right it is the 359s order to lose.

I’d imagine they have a lot of compensation credits from Boeing that they have not used. So that may change the economic equation of both aircraft.

Remember Lufthansa during the second round of widbebody orders put the 787 v 350 and the 787 came out on top even though they had many 350s on order. I was surprised by that if I’m honest

So with these things you never know.


LH's case is a bit different as they have LH Technik, which supports lots of types for many clients, so bringing a new type is less painful for LH. But it will be fun to see what CX does. Qantas is also in the market for A330 replacement....
 
LH779
Posts: 133
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:31 am

Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:43 am

Rogers99 wrote:

Remember Lufthansa during the second round of widbebody orders put the 787 v 350 and the 787 came out on top even though they had many 350s on order. I was surprised by that if I’m honest



The 787 coming out on top of a 787 v A350 "competition" leads to Lufthansa ordering 20 of both?

LH press release

To be fair: A part of that order was the sale of 6 A380s back to Airbus. But I still wouldn't say that the 787 "won" when LH ordered 20 789s and 20 A359s.
 
Rogers99
Posts: 126
Joined: Sat Oct 29, 2022 8:42 pm

Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:50 am

LH779 wrote:
Rogers99 wrote:

Remember Lufthansa during the second round of widbebody orders put the 787 v 350 and the 787 came out on top even though they had many 350s on order. I was surprised by that if I’m honest



The 787 coming out on top of a 787 v A350 "competition" leads to Lufthansa ordering 20 of both?

LH press release

To be fair: A part of that order was the sale of 6 A380s back to Airbus. But I still wouldn't say that the 787 "won" when LH ordered 20 789s and 20 A359s.

You are right. I forgot they ordered both in the end. I think it was just the shock that they ordered any 787s at all that made me think that way. My bad.

Yeah they ordered both. Which is even more weird. But my point is we really don’t know where these deals can go sometimes
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 21735
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:01 pm

Rogers99 wrote:
LH779 wrote:
Rogers99 wrote:

Remember Lufthansa during the second round of widbebody orders put the 787 v 350 and the 787 came out on top even though they had many 350s on order. I was surprised by that if I’m honest



The 787 coming out on top of a 787 v A350 "competition" leads to Lufthansa ordering 20 of both?

LH press release

To be fair: A part of that order was the sale of 6 A380s back to Airbus. But I still wouldn't say that the 787 "won" when LH ordered 20 789s and 20 A359s.

You are right. I forgot they ordered both in the end. I think it was just the shock that they ordered any 787s at all that made me think that way. My bad.

Yeah they ordered both. Which is even more weird. But my point is we really don’t know where these deals can go sometimes


Why is it weird? LH just joined a growing number of airlines that have ordered or already operate both the A350 and 787.
 
Breathe
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:06 pm

Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:40 pm

scbriml wrote:
Rogers99 wrote:
LH779 wrote:

The 787 coming out on top of a 787 v A350 "competition" leads to Lufthansa ordering 20 of both?

LH press release

To be fair: A part of that order was the sale of 6 A380s back to Airbus. But I still wouldn't say that the 787 "won" when LH ordered 20 789s and 20 A359s.

You are right. I forgot they ordered both in the end. I think it was just the shock that they ordered any 787s at all that made me think that way. My bad.

Yeah they ordered both. Which is even more weird. But my point is we really don’t know where these deals can go sometimes


Why is it weird? LH just joined a growing number of airlines that have ordered or already operate both the A350 and 787.

Indeed. Not to derail this thread as it is about CX. But it is quite a common sight to see large full service airline groups to have a mixed fleet from the two major manufacturures.Unfortunately to the corporate fanboi worshippers to the extent of 15 year old girls fanboi over boy bands, they can't fathom why this exists. It is actually quite cringing to see grown men actually fanboi over two manufacturing companies.
 
Rogers99
Posts: 126
Joined: Sat Oct 29, 2022 8:42 pm

Re: CX Cargo and Medium-haul Order

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:55 pm

Breathe wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Rogers99 wrote:
You are right. I forgot they ordered both in the end. I think it was just the shock that they ordered any 787s at all that made me think that way. My bad.

Yeah they ordered both. Which is even more weird. But my point is we really don’t know where these deals can go sometimes


Why is it weird? LH just joined a growing number of airlines that have ordered or already operate both the A350 and 787.

Indeed. Not to derail this thread as it is about CX. But it is quite a common sight to see large full service airline groups to have a mixed fleet from the two major manufacturures.Unfortunately to the corporate fanboi worshippers to the extent of 15 year old girls fanboi over boy bands, they can't fathom why this exists. It is actually quite cringing to see grown men actually fanboi over two manufacturing companies.

I just thought they’d go one way or the other (at the time) I.e I did not think the order would be a split order. That was just my personal thinking at the time. Nothing to do with the business sense of the deal. And I don’t think I had seen many split orders for the 787 and A350 in the same campaign. It mostly one or the other even though ultimately many large carriers end up having both

Moreover, LHs initial plan was to have the 787 split across airlines and not just within LH, now that i think about it.

People are getting distracted with irrelevancies. We are saying the same thing, with large groups you can have different fleets depending on the total economics of the package offered when airline request for RFPs

Like I’ve said airbus does seem to have inroad here if the 339 is discounted but my point was to show that sometimes it’s not that straightforward unless for example the airline is known for keeping its widebody fleet to just one OEM I.e United or American

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