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jplatts
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Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 3:35 pm

Here are the remaining DL nonstop routes out of CVG to non-DL hub destinations:
CVG-AUS/DEN/FLL/RSW/LAS/EWR/MCO/CDG/TPA/DCA

CVG-AUS/EWR/DCA are also the only remaining DL Connection routes out of CVG that aren't to a DL hub.

Are any of the above nonstop routes out of CVG at risk of getting dropped by DL? If so, which of the above nonstop routes would most likely be dropped by DL out of CVG?

DL can likely remain relevant in the CVG market without DL nonstop service to Florida out of CVG with the connecting options that would still be there through the ATL hub to Florida from CVG on DL.

Here were the DL nonstop routes out of CVG that were completely dropped by DL during the last 3 years:
CVG-BWI/CLT/ORD/DFW/BDL/IAH/MCI/PHL/PHX/RDU/STL/SFO

Any possibility of DL resuming any of the above routes out of CVG? If so, which of the above routes would be most likely to see nonstop service re-added by DL?
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 3:57 pm

I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:12 pm

jplatts wrote:
Here are the remaining DL nonstop routes out of CVG to non-DL hub destinations:
CVG-AUS/DEN/FLL/RSW/LAS/EWR/MCO/CDG/TPA/DCA

CVG-AUS/EWR/DCA are also the only remaining DL Connection routes out of CVG that aren't to a DL hub.

Are any of the above nonstop routes out of CVG at risk of getting dropped by DL? If so, which of the above nonstop routes would most likely be dropped by DL out of CVG?

DL can likely remain relevant in the CVG market without DL nonstop service to Florida out of CVG with the connecting options that would still be there through the ATL hub to Florida from CVG on DL.

Here were the DL nonstop routes out of CVG that were completely dropped by DL during the last 3 years:
CVG-BWI/CLT/ORD/DFW/BDL/IAH/MCI/PHL/PHX/RDU/STL/SFO

Any possibility of DL resuming any of the above routes out of CVG? If so, which of the above routes would be most likely to see nonstop service re-added by DL?

Looking at what has been cut and what remains, I can't help but notice that the majority of the cuts are to other airline's hubs. Based on that, it would seem EWR and DEN could be at risk.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:22 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.

I wish airlines kept hubs open as a courtesy but unfortunately that's not the case. CDG is/was kept as a courtesy for P&G due to a lucrative contract.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:48 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.

I wish airlines kept hubs open as a courtesy but unfortunately that's not the case. CDG is/was kept as a courtesy for P&G due to a lucrative contract.

I don't think I would call that a courtesy.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:52 pm

CVG seems to be trending towards AA. They have almost the same # of flights but DL has significantly more mainline.
 
cv5880
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:05 pm

In the 1990's and early 2000's CVG was quite the operation. Comair had their separate terminal with then then new CRJ's providing service that complimented DL's hub. To me Cincinnati and the surrounding areas is a more economically vibrant than Detroit. Still a SMH mystery why Delta would discard CVG for DTW.
 
cv5880
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:12 pm

The merger with NW created what looks like DINO (Delta in name only). Northwest fleet management took over in ATL and DL switched from a reliable Boeing (Supporting US manufacturing) to Airbus. Northwest was only ordering Airbus before the merger and this bias transferred to Delta after the merger. Northwest MO was to update the interiors in their old DC-9's and DC-10's and fly them until the rivets fell out. Same thing today with very old A320's and 763's that have nice interiors but are ready for retirement. I still think not buying a fleet of 787's with GE engines will bite Delta one day.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:13 pm

cv5880 wrote:
In the 1990's and early 2000's CVG was quite the operation. Comair had their separate terminal with then then new CRJ's providing service that complimented DL's hub. To me Cincinnati and the surrounding areas is a more economically vibrant than Detroit. Still a SMH mystery why Delta would discard CVG for DTW.

It's no mystery. Detroit metro area is nearly twice the size of the Cincinnati metro area.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:15 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
CVG seems to be trending towards AA. They have almost the same # of flights but DL has significantly more mainline.


That just points to the weakness of using departures rather than ASMs as a measure of size.

Delta is farther along replacing regionals with mainline jets, and that's good for reliability and CASM.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:21 pm

cv5880 wrote:
The merger with NW created what looks like DINO (Delta in name only). Northwest fleet management took over in ATL and DL switched from a reliable Boeing (Supporting US manufacturing) to Airbus. Northwest was only ordering Airbus before the merger and this bias transferred to Delta after the merger. Northwest MO was to update the interiors in their old DC-9's and DC-10's and fly them until the rivets fell out. Same thing today with very old A320's and 763's that have nice interiors but are ready for retirement. I still think not buying a fleet of 787's with GE engines will bite Delta one day.

This post completely ignores the 260+ 737s DL has purchased along with the 717s they’ve picked up.

Big Boeing guy, but the bias in this is unreal. Airbus has been smoking the pants off Boeing the last decade, and this is the result
 
ScottB
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:28 pm

cv5880 wrote:
In the 1990's and early 2000's CVG was quite the operation. Comair had their separate terminal with then then new CRJ's providing service that complimented DL's hub. To me Cincinnati and the surrounding areas is a more economically vibrant than Detroit. Still a SMH mystery why Delta would discard CVG for DTW.


We'll take 2012 numbers since that's more relevant to when DL was scaling back CVG & MEM. 2012 real GDP for metro Cincinnati: $115 billion. 2012 real GDP for metro Detroit: $216 billion. Cincy has higher per capita GDP in its favor, but Detroit is still a key center in one of the most important industries globally. Detroit's GDP grew just a bit more quickly between 2012 and 2018 as well -- 24% vs 23% for Cincinnati.

CRJs were an enormous competitive advantage when no one else had them. Once the other legacy carriers had large fleets of regional jets and more attractive products like the E-Jets and even next generation CR9s entered the market, that huge fleet of CRJs became a liability. The run-up in fuel costs before the Great Recession didn't help, either. Plus DL management remembered the crippling Comair pilots' strike in 2001 as well as Comair's operational meltdown for Christmas 2004.

DTW also has a better terminal and airfield, FWIW.
 
yoshoward12
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:29 pm

jplatts wrote:
Here are the remaining DL nonstop routes out of CVG to non-DL hub destinations:
CVG-AUS/DEN/FLL/RSW/LAS/EWR/MCO/CDG/TPA/DCA

CVG-AUS/EWR/DCA are also the only remaining DL Connection routes out of CVG that aren't to a DL hub.

Are any of the above nonstop routes out of CVG at risk of getting dropped by DL? If so, which of the above nonstop routes would most likely be dropped by DL out of CVG?

DL can likely remain relevant in the CVG market without DL nonstop service to Florida out of CVG with the connecting options that would still be there through the ATL hub to Florida from CVG on DL.

Here were the DL nonstop routes out of CVG that were completely dropped by DL during the last 3 years:
CVG-BWI/CLT/ORD/DFW/BDL/IAH/MCI/PHL/PHX/RDU/STL/SFO

Any possibility of DL resuming any of the above routes out of CVG? If so, which of the above routes would be most likely to see nonstop service re-added by DL?


Cincinnati itself is a market, and Delta offering more premium service to the routes mentioned above, keep them relevant.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:34 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.

I wish airlines kept hubs open as a courtesy but unfortunately that's not the case. CDG is/was kept as a courtesy for P&G due to a lucrative contract.

I don't think I would call that a courtesy.

Hence the contract part. ;)
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:40 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
CVG seems to be trending towards AA. They have almost the same # of flights but DL has significantly more mainline.


That just points to the weakness of using departures rather than ASMs as a measure of size.

Delta is farther along replacing regionals with mainline jets, and that's good for reliability and CASM.


DL flies alot more leisure oriented routes like FL and LAS where the CASM of an RJ would never work.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:09 pm

DL coming out of the pandemic still is a "smaller airline". Both due to the decisions they made during the pandemic and now amplified by the staffing issues at the regional airlines.

CVG has not seem some of those resume two to the factors:
1) RJ routes that were heavily reliant upon business travel; that is still well off of what it was pre-pandemic
2) Utilization of scare resources to restore the network and gain marketshare in coastal hubs
3) Lack of RJ feed due to staffing

DL is a resourced constrained airline currently, and in Summer 2022 was only operating around 85% of pre-pandemic capacity.
They will eventually get back to 100% of capacity but its not going to be exactly how it was pre-pandemic.

DL obviously seems some value in maintaining non-hub service from CVG is certain markets.
Its always possible they could add back more as resources (aircraft, staffing) allow, but that remains to be seen.

DL has said they are going to start restoring more capacity in their core hubs in 2023. Once they do that they maybe they will revisit more capacity in prior focus city markets.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:04 pm

cv5880 wrote:
In the 1990's and early 2000's CVG was quite the operation. Comair had their separate terminal with then then new CRJ's providing service that complimented DL's hub. To me Cincinnati and the surrounding areas is a more economically vibrant than Detroit. Still a SMH mystery why Delta would discard CVG for DTW.


Well, Detroit is still a larger urban area with a much larger catchment area than Cincinnati, with more Fortune 500 companies, and some pretty wealthy suburbs. Operationally, DL inherited from NW a fairly new terminal and quite an efficient one, in DTW. Delta was, at one point, a 600 per day departure at CVG but an outsized amount of that was on inefficient, costly to fly CRJ-200s which were not amazing from a passenger service perspective and not very fuel efficient. The relative proximity of CVG to DTW and DTW's outsized operational scale compared to CVG, combined with corporate contracts, probably sealed the deal. The CVG terminals were upgraded but weren't as efficient as what DTW has. DL probably compared yields too and found DTW to be the winner over the two.
 
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STT757
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:16 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.


The two hubs Delta ditched, Cincinnati and Memphis, have large cargo/parcel/freight operations to support jobs. LCC and ULCC's have back filled into CVG to leisure destinations. CVG fared okay considering the loss of the hub, they still are growing jobs at the airport through the cargo operations and ULCCs have lowered fares for families and leisure travelers. Overall CVG has fared much better than MEM, STL, CLE and PIT.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:26 pm

I feel like the CVG vs DTW narrative gets beaten to death on a.net, but it wasn't necessarily just a one or the other. A lot of it was due to a significant restructuring of DL's post merger network across all its hubs. Rebalancing capacity, consolidating capacity, and upgauging from high cost RJs to lower CASM large narrowbodies across the board. A lot CVG connecting flows were redundant to ATL. Downsizing of CVG resulted in a backflow of a lot of RJ capacity in DTW (on capacity purchase agreements / contracts that didn't just end overnight) and a lot of mainline resources going to beef-up ATL. Back in day one could connect 2-3x per on ROC-CVG-JAX all on CR2s, or connect 8x+ per day on ROC-ATL-JAX all on 73N or 757 mainline equipment.

We are seeing the end game play out now as all but the at-risk & EAS Skywest operating CR2s will be out of the network completely in the next 6 months.
 
pmanni1
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:32 pm

STT757 wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.


The two hubs Delta ditched, Cincinnati and Memphis, have large cargo/parcel/freight operations to support jobs. LCC and ULCC's have back filled into CVG to leisure destinations. CVG fared okay considering the loss of the hub, they still are growing jobs at the airport through the cargo operations and ULCCs have lowered fares for families and leisure travelers. Overall CVG has fared much better than MEM, STL, CLE and PIT.

WN is up to 58 destinations at STL. This is miles ahead of CVG.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:41 pm

STT757 wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.


The two hubs Delta ditched, Cincinnati and Memphis, have large cargo/parcel/freight operations to support jobs. LCC and ULCC's have back filled into CVG to leisure destinations. CVG fared okay considering the loss of the hub, they still are growing jobs at the airport through the cargo operations and ULCCs have lowered fares for families and leisure travelers. Overall CVG has fared much better than MEM, STL, CLE and PIT.


ULCCs or LCCs have also filled back into MEM, STL, CLE and PIT. STL has a large WN operation. CLE has a decent sized ULCC presence despite UA not pulling back to a spoke completely.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:19 pm

cv5880 wrote:
Northwest fleet management took over in ATL and DL switched from a reliable Boeing (Supporting US manufacturing) to Airbus.

You mean the Airbus that actively employs US workers to manufacture aircraft in the US, from US materials, while paying US taxes... that Airbus? Or were you thinking of another one?
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:29 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like the CVG vs DTW narrative gets beaten to death on a.net, but it wasn't necessarily just a one or the other.


It gets beaten to death because the same users continue to ignore facts to push their narrative. CVG was a declining hub well before the merger; when it was emerging from bankruptcy, DL disclosed its intentions to grow its mainline fleet with secondhand aircraft + grow ATL, SLC and especially NYC while remaining "capacity neutral." This could only be accomplished via deep cuts at CVG. DL went from nearly 650 peak day departures in 2006, to 400 in late 2007, to 300 by late 2008. The merger and swelling fuel costs during 2008 may have been a catalyst in the pace of CVG's decline, but it was going to happen regardless.

DTW was obviously one of reasons DL acquired NW -- a large hub with nearly 2.3x the local traffic, 3x the local revenues, and local (traffic) support for international service that CVG was lacking. That there was a competition between DTW & CVG and DTW won because NW took over and DL became "DINO," or because NW/DL owned the airport, or for whatever B.S. reason manufactured on a.net is purely fan fiction. There hasn't been a month that's gone by since the merge that I've read similar remarks, or that DTW is "comparable" to CVG. The same arguments are perpetually repeated, largely by the same users, even when presented with facts.
 
Vctony
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:30 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.


The two hubs Delta ditched, Cincinnati and Memphis, have large cargo/parcel/freight operations to support jobs. LCC and ULCC's have back filled into CVG to leisure destinations. CVG fared okay considering the loss of the hub, they still are growing jobs at the airport through the cargo operations and ULCCs have lowered fares for families and leisure travelers. Overall CVG has fared much better than MEM, STL, CLE and PIT.

WN is up to 58 destinations at STL. This is miles ahead of CVG.


STL essentially went from a mainline hub to a decently large WN focus city. Unfortunately CLE, MEM and PIT are all smaller WN cities. I know at some point WN was making some rumblings about increasing the size of the PIT operation (which actually is decently sized at 32 daily departures) but WN doesn't really seem to care about the NE other than BWI.
 
Vctony
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:30 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.


The two hubs Delta ditched, Cincinnati and Memphis, have large cargo/parcel/freight operations to support jobs. LCC and ULCC's have back filled into CVG to leisure destinations. CVG fared okay considering the loss of the hub, they still are growing jobs at the airport through the cargo operations and ULCCs have lowered fares for families and leisure travelers. Overall CVG has fared much better than MEM, STL, CLE and PIT.

WN is up to 58 destinations at STL. This is miles ahead of CVG.


STL essentially went from a mainline hub to a decently large WN focus city. Unfortunately CLE, MEM and PIT are all smaller WN cities. I know at some point WN was making some rumblings about increasing the size of the PIT operation (which actually is decently sized at 32 daily departures) but WN doesn't really seem to care about the NE other than BWI.
 
a320flyer
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Wed Nov 30, 2022 11:32 pm

We will have to see what happens as the fleet/crew situation stabilizes and capacity recovers at the interior hubs. CVG-ORD/DFW/SFO stayed on the schedule for quite some time before being pulled down and CVG-RDU/PHX/CUN were there for some time as well. These seem like logical adds when fleet constraints are lessened.

The remainder really depend on how large the RJ fleet is going forward and whether business demand recovers enough. Routes like CVG-BDL/IAH/STL/RDU were already seeing CR7/9s and CVG-MCI/PHL/CLT/BWI/YYZ could likely maintain the same with frequency reductions. Business demand is unlikely to return sufficiently for the majority of these to return.

DL opened the 9E pilot base not long before COVID and talked about increasing capacity. They only added CR7/9 categories and it was already being discussed that the CR2s would be phased out of CVG in the next year or so. CVG-MEM/BNA/XNA/MKE were casualties of these changes and failed to get sufficient loads on larger RJ aircraft.

The mainline network from CVG is still largely the same as it was almost a decade ago. The majority of reductions were due to CR2 retirements.
 
kavok
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:31 am

I think what also gets overlooked in the whole CVG dehub discussion is that DTW never really became a significantly larger hub due to CVG’s demise. If anyone, ATL did. CVG’s “loss” was actually ATL’s gain, not DTW’s gain.
 
Yossarian22
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:35 am

Also, an argument can be made, that in its current situation CVG better serves the Cincinnati market than at the height of the hub.

20 years ago you could fly to nearly any decent sized American airport from CVG but CVG was consistently one of the most expensive airports in the country. Delta cares more about CVGs role of moving connecting traffic through their network than about Cincinnati’s market itself. You could fly non-stop to Syracuse, Richmond, or Rome but it was going to cost significantly more than if you flew to the same city from CMH or DAY.

Now, the airport maintains a fair amount of non-stops to top destinations for local passengers at competitive prices.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:14 am

cv5880 wrote:
In the 1990's and early 2000's CVG was quite the operation. Comair had their separate terminal with then then new CRJ's providing service that complimented DL's hub. To me Cincinnati and the surrounding areas is a more economically vibrant than Detroit. Still a SMH mystery why Delta would discard CVG for DTW.


It was well covered when they merged with NW. NW had the new terminals built & had long term commitments due to bonds. Delta would have had to pay off a big chunk if they cut service there. CVG being so close & not having to pay if routes were dropped left little choice but to reduce CVG. If CVG hub stayed both CVG & DTW would have feed off each other. 1 had to go & only one would have had the huge cost if closed. CVG lost.

I loved flying Delta at CVG for years. They worked with Shriners Hospital there a lot & treated patients flying in like family.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:19 am

cv5880 wrote:
The merger with NW created what looks like DINO (Delta in name only). Northwest fleet management took over in ATL and DL switched from a reliable Boeing (Supporting US manufacturing) to Airbus. Northwest was only ordering Airbus before the merger and this bias transferred to Delta after the merger. Northwest MO was to update the interiors in their old DC-9's and DC-10's and fly them until the rivets fell out. Same thing today with very old A320's and 763's that have nice interiors but are ready for retirement. I still think not buying a fleet of 787's with GE engines will bite Delta one day.


This has nothing to due with political slogan knockoffs or bias. And you forgot all those 737's & 717's not to mention the largest 757 fleet in the US & the 767's.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:29 am

STT757 wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.


The two hubs Delta ditched, Cincinnati and Memphis, have large cargo/parcel/freight operations to support jobs. LCC and ULCC's have back filled into CVG to leisure destinations. CVG fared okay considering the loss of the hub, they still are growing jobs at the airport through the cargo operations and ULCCs have lowered fares for families and leisure travelers. Overall CVG has fared much better than MEM, STL, CLE and PIT.


Everyone puts down STL. WN has a very large operation there and has added more gates over the years. The planse always seem to have high load factors as well. AA killed of TWA ops in STL after they claimed they would keep the hub. WN expanded and does great. Family back there does not like AA for the way they treated TWA employees.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:16 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL coming out of the pandemic still is a "smaller airline". Both due to the decisions they made during the pandemic and now amplified by the staffing issues at the regional airlines.

CVG has not seem some of those resume two to the factors:
1) RJ routes that were heavily reliant upon business travel; that is still well off of what it was pre-pandemic
2) Utilization of scare resources to restore the network and gain marketshare in coastal hubs
3) Lack of RJ feed due to staffing

DL is a resourced constrained airline currently, and in Summer 2022 was only operating around 85% of pre-pandemic capacity.
They will eventually get back to 100% of capacity but its not going to be exactly how it was pre-pandemic.

DL obviously seems some value in maintaining non-hub service from CVG is certain markets.
Its always possible they could add back more as resources (aircraft, staffing) allow, but that remains to be seen.

DL has said they are going to start restoring more capacity in their core hubs in 2023. Once they do that they maybe they will revisit more capacity in prior focus city markets.

Business travel is expected to recover between 2023 and 2025:
https://www.financialexpress.com/lifest ... w/2856547/

I personally see a slow recovery. For example, we're having a major workshop with a vendor on what I consider a good size contract with them (several hundred million USD) and instead of flying a team of 20 to 30 like we did in the past. Most will call into a Zoom call. We'll fly one person, myself as the technical lead only as there is some "hands on" stuff only for the technical people.

The rising pilot costs will kill RJs. In particular as RJs are stuck on prior generation aircraft while mainline narrowbodies advanced with the NEO, MAX, and in particular the A220. For DL at CVG, this means quite the contraction. It is my opinion CVG could only grow big again with a massive improvement in RJ economics (newer generation RJ) and I just do not see anything on the horizon.

We're talking about a once hub that has seen 9 constant years of decline before 2022:
https://www.wcpo.com/news/transportatio ... eos-vision

McGraw’s plan to turn around an airport that had seen nine consecutive years of passenger decline was complex.

Honestly, the link notes the airport has become an Amazon super-hub and that seems like the best role going forward. The greater Ohio Valley is being served by DTW, MSP, and to a lesser extent ATL.
https://www.flightconnections.com/route-map-delta-dl

Zoom in for the above link around Ohio and it really looks like CVG has just become a feeder to other DL hubs with some added flights to Florida (a big market for DL).

It will be slow growth for DL at CVG and with WN and NK dug in, very likely to remain with MEM, PIT, and STL as "once upon a time hubs." The only out is far lower cost 76 seat RJs and none have been launched and I personally am not a fan of turboprops.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 15011
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:05 pm

rbavfan wrote:
STT757 wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I always thought DL maintained a small base (including the CDG) flight almost as a courtesy to Cincinnati as to not entirely abandon the city. But as we see from the cuts, it's difficult to make it work and is rendered almost entirely redundant with DTW right to the north. The hub conflict arose because DTW was a NorthWest Airlines hub. Nearly identical situation to UA eliminating the legacy Continental CLE hub with ORD and EWR sandwiching it.
Poor Ohio. At least LCK has a huge cargo presence.


The two hubs Delta ditched, Cincinnati and Memphis, have large cargo/parcel/freight operations to support jobs. LCC and ULCC's have back filled into CVG to leisure destinations. CVG fared okay considering the loss of the hub, they still are growing jobs at the airport through the cargo operations and ULCCs have lowered fares for families and leisure travelers. Overall CVG has fared much better than MEM, STL, CLE and PIT.


Everyone puts down STL. WN has a very large operation there and has added more gates over the years. The planse always seem to have high load factors as well. AA killed of TWA ops in STL after they claimed they would keep the hub. WN expanded and does great. Family back there does not like AA for the way they treated TWA employees.


I think what works for STL for WN is its geographic location.
 
IND96
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:06 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:04 pm

It surprises me that CVG-EWR has held on as long as it has, considering that CVG is well connected to the DL hubs at LGA and JFK. Is there a contract/some other reason why this route stays while others like ORD, IAH, PHX, SFO have gone away?
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 15011
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:16 pm

IND96 wrote:
It surprises me that CVG-EWR has held on as long as it has, considering that CVG is well connected to the DL hubs at LGA and JFK. Is there a contract/some other reason why this route stays while others like ORD, IAH, PHX, SFO have gone away?


Proctor and Gamble has two facilities in Northern New Jersey, a Sales office and a production plant. Perhaps that's what's driving it?

https://www.pglocations.com/
 
User avatar
nbc7
Posts: 20
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:38 am

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:17 pm

That OP made my head spin. Lots of word repetition.

No longer even flying to Chicago is quite a big hole, wow. It seems like this operation will continue to slowly dwindle for Delta.
 
stlgph
Posts: 11876
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:21 pm

STT757 wrote:
IND96 wrote:
It surprises me that CVG-EWR has held on as long as it has, considering that CVG is well connected to the DL hubs at LGA and JFK. Is there a contract/some other reason why this route stays while others like ORD, IAH, PHX, SFO have gone away?


Proctor and Gamble has two facilities in Northern New Jersey, a Sales office and a production plant. Perhaps that's what's driving it?

https://www.pglocations.com/


Not just P&G- there's a number companies in the Cincinnati area with interests in the Jersey/Newark area and vice versa.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9914
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:55 pm

I like data......using BTS data with a proxy date in August, here is the count of mainline DL departures
I'm excluding the regional / DCI stuff since its a PITA to pull by the myriad of operating carriers over the year.

DL has been less than 100 mainline departures since 2005.
Secondly, the number of mainline departures hasn't materially changed since 2012.
(Ignore 2020 & 2021 as those are pandemic era schedules).


Row Labels Count of Carrier Code
1988 122
1989 126
1990 134
1991 152
1992 156
1993 157
1994 162
1995 199
1996 213
1997 210
1998 207
1999 200
2000 190
2001 174
2002 159
2003 150
2004 153
2005 128
2006 70
2007 59
2008 55
2009 34
2010 32
2011 32
2012 26
2013 24
2014 21
2015 15
2016 19
2017 22
2018 24
2019 25
2020 15
2021 18
2022 21
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9914
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:01 pm

Here is the number of mainline flights to non-hubs going back to 2009
Excludes BOS, LGA, JFK, ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, SEA, LAX

2009 17
DEN 2
FLL 1
LAS 2
MCO 4
PHX 1
RSW 2
SAN 1
SFO 2
TPA 2

2010 15
DCA 1
DEN 1
FLL 2
LAS 2
MCO 2
MIA 1
PHX 1
RSW 1
SAN 1
SFO 2
TPA 1

2011 15
DEN 1
FLL 2
LAS 2
MCO 3
MIA 1
PHX 1
RSW 1
SAN 1
SFO 2
TPA 1

2012 9
DEN 1
FLL 2
MCO 3
PHX 1
SFO 1
TPA 1

2013 11
DEN 1
FLL 1
LAS 1
MCO 3
RSW 1
SAN 1
SFO 1
TPA 2

2014 8
FLL 1
LAS 1
MCO 2
RSW 1
SAN 1
SFO 1
TPA 1

2015 5
FLL 1
LAS 1
MCO 2
TPA 1

2016 5
FLL 1
LAS 1
MCO 1
SFO 1
TPA 1

2017 5
DEN 1
FLL 1
LAS 1
MCO 1
SFO 1

2018 7
DEN 1
FLL 1
LAS 1
MCO 1
RSW 1
SFO 1
TPA 1

2019 8
DEN 1
FLL 1
LAS 1
MCO 2
RSW 1
SFO 1
TPA 1

2020 3
MCO 1
RSW 1
TPA 1

2021 7
DEN 1
FLL 1
LAS 1
MCO 2
RSW 1
TPA 1

2022 7
DEN 1
FLL 1
LAS 1
MCO 2
RSW 1
TPA 1
 
a320flyer
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 5:28 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
DL coming out of the pandemic still is a "smaller airline". Both due to the decisions they made during the pandemic and now amplified by the staffing issues at the regional airlines.

CVG has not seem some of those resume two to the factors:
1) RJ routes that were heavily reliant upon business travel; that is still well off of what it was pre-pandemic
2) Utilization of scare resources to restore the network and gain marketshare in coastal hubs
3) Lack of RJ feed due to staffing

DL is a resourced constrained airline currently, and in Summer 2022 was only operating around 85% of pre-pandemic capacity.
They will eventually get back to 100% of capacity but its not going to be exactly how it was pre-pandemic.

DL obviously seems some value in maintaining non-hub service from CVG is certain markets.
Its always possible they could add back more as resources (aircraft, staffing) allow, but that remains to be seen.

DL has said they are going to start restoring more capacity in their core hubs in 2023. Once they do that they maybe they will revisit more capacity in prior focus city markets.

Business travel is expected to recover between 2023 and 2025:
https://www.financialexpress.com/lifest ... w/2856547/

I personally see a slow recovery. For example, we're having a major workshop with a vendor on what I consider a good size contract with them (several hundred million USD) and instead of flying a team of 20 to 30 like we did in the past. Most will call into a Zoom call. We'll fly one person, myself as the technical lead only as there is some "hands on" stuff only for the technical people.

The rising pilot costs will kill RJs. In particular as RJs are stuck on prior generation aircraft while mainline narrowbodies advanced with the NEO, MAX, and in particular the A220. For DL at CVG, this means quite the contraction. It is my opinion CVG could only grow big again with a massive improvement in RJ economics (newer generation RJ) and I just do not see anything on the horizon.

We're talking about a once hub that has seen 9 constant years of decline before 2022:
https://www.wcpo.com/news/transportatio ... eos-vision

McGraw’s plan to turn around an airport that had seen nine consecutive years of passenger decline was complex.

Honestly, the link notes the airport has become an Amazon super-hub and that seems like the best role going forward. The greater Ohio Valley is being served by DTW, MSP, and to a lesser extent ATL.
https://www.flightconnections.com/route-map-delta-dl

Zoom in for the above link around Ohio and it really looks like CVG has just become a feeder to other DL hubs with some added flights to Florida (a big market for DL).

It will be slow growth for DL at CVG and with WN and NK dug in, very likely to remain with MEM, PIT, and STL as "once upon a time hubs." The only out is far lower cost 76 seat RJs and none have been launched and I personally am not a fan of turboprops.

Lightsaber

NK does not serve CVG and WN has very little service. Neither are of any concern to DL at CVG.

And the decline comments are irrelevant given that the operation had stabilized long before COVID and was growing quite rapidly at that time. No one is saying it would ever grown into a hub again, but restoring service to the top 20-30 markets for CVG could certainly be achieved once fleet/crew issues are resolved. That has been working quite well for them for a number of years, and they even added the 9E pilot base just a couple years ago.

There’s certainly more than just service to Florida and all of these routes came back quite early in the pandemic. DL itself has acknowledged that it cut too deep in the interior hubs and will restore some of this capacity. This likely takes priority over CVG adds, but they have many aircraft entering the fleet over the next several years. I think the routes that were in the schedules for months until it became clear they couldn’t staff the flights are strong candidates for returning (ORD/SFO/PHX/DFW/CUN/RDU).
 
User avatar
foxecho
Posts: 690
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2000 12:43 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:44 pm

cv5880 wrote:
The merger with NW created what looks like DINO (Delta in name only). Northwest fleet management took over in ATL and DL switched from a reliable Boeing (Supporting US manufacturing) to Airbus. Northwest was only ordering Airbus before the merger and this bias transferred to Delta after the merger. Northwest MO was to update the interiors in their old DC-9's and DC-10's and fly them until the rivets fell out. Same thing today with very old A320's and 763's that have nice interiors but are ready for retirement. I still think not buying a fleet of 787's with GE engines will bite Delta one day.


Very well put...(retired 22 years ACS)

Andrew
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 1005
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:12 pm

foxecho wrote:
cv5880 wrote:
The merger with NW created what looks like DINO (Delta in name only). Northwest fleet management took over in ATL and DL switched from a reliable Boeing (Supporting US manufacturing) to Airbus. Northwest was only ordering Airbus before the merger and this bias transferred to Delta after the merger. Northwest MO was to update the interiors in their old DC-9's and DC-10's and fly them until the rivets fell out. Same thing today with very old A320's and 763's that have nice interiors but are ready for retirement. I still think not buying a fleet of 787's with GE engines will bite Delta one day.


Very well put...(retired 22 years ACS)

Andrew


It's just a.net fan fiction. When it was emerging from bankruptcy, DL asserted that it was looking to add second-hand mainline aircraft, specifically MD-80, and reduce its 50-seat fleet. It also asserted that it intended on operating its aircraft for the long-term The DL management team that signed the exclusive Boeing contract... wasn't the team in change of the airline post bankruptcy. Let's not forget that NW management purchased the 787... and a team of mostly pre-merger DL management cancelled the order.

It's tough when reality isn't as elusive as fantasy, but that's life.
 
User avatar
diverdave
Posts: 781
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:00 am

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:16 pm

kavok wrote:
I think what also gets overlooked in the whole CVG dehub discussion is that DTW never really became a significantly larger hub due to CVG’s demise. If anyone, ATL did. CVG’s “loss” was actually ATL’s gain, not DTW’s gain.


An excellent point, which IMO also applies to MEM.

David
 
Vctony
Posts: 845
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 1999 10:51 am

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:25 pm

diverdave wrote:
kavok wrote:
I think what also gets overlooked in the whole CVG dehub discussion is that DTW never really became a significantly larger hub due to CVG’s demise. If anyone, ATL did. CVG’s “loss” was actually ATL’s gain, not DTW’s gain.


An excellent point, which IMO also applies to MEM.

David


Honestly while ATL benefitted somewhat the main beneficiaries of the CVG / MEM shutdown was JFK / LGA, BOS and SEA.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 1005
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:32 pm

Vctony wrote:
diverdave wrote:
kavok wrote:
I think what also gets overlooked in the whole CVG dehub discussion is that DTW never really became a significantly larger hub due to CVG’s demise. If anyone, ATL did. CVG’s “loss” was actually ATL’s gain, not DTW’s gain.


An excellent point, which IMO also applies to MEM.

David


Honestly while ATL benefitted somewhat the main beneficiaries of the CVG / MEM shutdown was JFK / LGA, BOS and SEA.


ATL was, by far, the biggest beneficiary. DL added more passengers at ATL in the 2010s, than JFK/LGA, BOS & SEA combined BOS & SEA were also largely based on new traffic flows, whereas much of ATL's growth was from cannibalizing CVG, MEM, MSP & DTW.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 2155
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Fri Dec 02, 2022 1:00 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Vctony wrote:
diverdave wrote:

An excellent point, which IMO also applies to MEM.

David


Honestly while ATL benefitted somewhat the main beneficiaries of the CVG / MEM shutdown was JFK / LGA, BOS and SEA.


ATL was, by far, the biggest beneficiary. DL added more passengers at ATL in the 2010s, than JFK/LGA, BOS & SEA combined BOS & SEA were also largely based on new traffic flows, whereas much of ATL's growth was from cannibalizing CVG, MEM, MSP & DTW.
Maybe, but they used a lot of the RJ’s from CVG to fund places like NY.
 
AWACSooner
Posts: 2722
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:35 am

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Fri Dec 02, 2022 1:33 am

cv5880 wrote:
The merger with NW created what looks like DINO (Delta in name only). Northwest fleet management took over in ATL and DL switched from a reliable Boeing (Supporting US manufacturing) to Airbus. Northwest was only ordering Airbus before the merger and this bias transferred to Delta after the merger. Northwest MO was to update the interiors in their old DC-9's and DC-10's and fly them until the rivets fell out. Same thing today with very old A320's and 763's that have nice interiors but are ready for retirement. I still think not buying a fleet of 787's with GE engines will bite Delta one day.

Been saying this for years...just like when the McD bean-counters took over Boeing after the merger, I think the worse management company ultimately won out
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 1005
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Fri Dec 02, 2022 1:48 am

AWACSooner wrote:
cv5880 wrote:
The merger with NW created what looks like DINO (Delta in name only). Northwest fleet management took over in ATL and DL switched from a reliable Boeing (Supporting US manufacturing) to Airbus. Northwest was only ordering Airbus before the merger and this bias transferred to Delta after the merger. Northwest MO was to update the interiors in their old DC-9's and DC-10's and fly them until the rivets fell out. Same thing today with very old A320's and 763's that have nice interiors but are ready for retirement. I still think not buying a fleet of 787's with GE engines will bite Delta one day.

Been saying this for years...just like when the McD bean-counters took over Boeing after the merger, I think the worse management company ultimately won out


One more time. Let's let go of the A.net Fantasy Delta That Never Existed and stick with facts.

- DL management made the decision to go with secondhand aircraft + operate aircraft for their full useful life long before the merger.
- NW management ordered the 787. Mostly PMDL management cancelled it.
 
User avatar
tlecam
Posts: 1875
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:38 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Fri Dec 02, 2022 1:49 am

LAX772LR wrote:
cv5880 wrote:
Northwest fleet management took over in ATL and DL switched from a reliable Boeing (Supporting US manufacturing) to Airbus.

You mean the Airbus that actively employs US workers to manufacture aircraft in the US, from US materials, while paying US taxes... that Airbus? Or were you thinking of another one?


Took the words right out of my month.
 
jplatts
Topic Author
Posts: 6385
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Future of DL presence at CVG

Fri Dec 02, 2022 2:21 am

cledaybuck wrote:
Looking at what has been cut and what remains, I can't help but notice that the majority of the cuts are to other airline's hubs. Based on that, it would seem EWR and DEN could be at risk.


DL also still serves DCA nonstop from CVG, but DL still has the GSA contract for CVG-DCA through at least 9/30/2023.

Is DL CVG-DCA nonstop service at risk of getting dropped if DL loses the CVG-DCA GSA contract after September 2023?

IND96 wrote:
It surprises me that CVG-EWR has held on as long as it has, considering that CVG is well connected to the DL hubs at LGA and JFK.


CVG can likely support upgauging of DL CVG-LGA/JFK nonstop flights to mainline aircraft if DL drops CVG-EWR nonstop service.

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