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MLflyer
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Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:24 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:56 am

Any of these QF routes are likely to return next year?

BNE-SFO
BNE-HKG
MEL-SFO
SYD-KIX
SYD-CTS

Or are we likely to see other new routes instead?
 
A350OZ
Posts: 252
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:20 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:13 am

RobK wrote:
Any locals know what's happening with Bonza Airline? Are they dead now? All the ones that were being prepped in the US are seemingly cancelled, and getting repainted all white with fully assigned N registrations. I think there were 2 or 3 that made it to Australia - what's happened with those? Have they gone to the desert for resale?


No idea, but just remembered there was a Bonza 737 at CNS on 23 Nov. Looked like they were doing some kind of training/familiarisation with the Max for the ground crew, about a dozen Swissport staff assembled in front of it. But not sure, just observed it briefly as we disembarked our VA flight right next to it.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:48 am

MLflyer wrote:
Any of these QF routes are likely to return next year?

BNE-SFO
BNE-HKG
MEL-SFO
SYD-KIX
SYD-CTS

Or are we likely to see other new routes instead?


BNE-SFO: Unlikely with UA's BNE-SFO service being AAIF funded by BAC and the State of Queensland
BNE-HKG: Slim chance, but likely to be a medium-long term proposition (Late 2023 at the earliest)
MEL-SFO: APA (Melbourne) and State of Victoria were reported in the media to be in discussions about gradually increasing the frequency on the recently launched MEL-DFW, thus reducing the chance of SFO resuming.
SYD-KIX: Slim chance, most likely a medium-term proposition like BNE-HKG as the Japan traffic gradually builds up
SYD-CTS: Slim but I'd say unlikely as QF would probably want to concentrate on the two larger cities (TYO area airports and KIX)
 
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LamboAston
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:51 am

RobK wrote:
Any locals know what's happening with Bonza Airline? Are they dead now? All the ones that were being prepped in the US are seemingly cancelled, and getting repainted all white with fully assigned N registrations. I think there were 2 or 3 that made it to Australia - what's happened with those? Have they gone to the desert for resale?

Still doing CASA proving flights. Thats all I know
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 9469
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:59 am

SCFlyer wrote:
MLflyer wrote:
Any of these QF routes are likely to return next year?

BNE-SFO
BNE-HKG
MEL-SFO
SYD-KIX
SYD-CTS

Or are we likely to see other new routes instead?


BNE-SFO: Unlikely with UA's BNE-SFO service being AAIF funded by BAC and the State of Queensland
BNE-HKG: Slim chance, but likely to be a medium-long term proposition (Late 2023 at the earliest)
MEL-SFO: APA (Melbourne) and State of Victoria were reported in the media to be in discussions about gradually increasing the frequency on the recently launched MEL-DFW, thus reducing the chance of SFO resuming.
SYD-KIX: Slim chance, most likely a medium-term proposition like BNE-HKG as the Japan traffic gradually builds up
SYD-CTS: Slim but I'd say unlikely as QF would probably want to concentrate on the two larger cities (TYO area airports and KIX)


CTS would only be December to March seasonal, and if the Japan ski market was to rebound strongly this year then we might see it run next December, but I think it’s more likely that Japan opened too late this year to see the inbound ski market resume in a big way, so Qantas will see how the market recovers next year before deciding whether to relaunch for December 2024. So long as they have a spare A330 to cover the route, it’s fairly low risk.
 
Fuling
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:03 am

Speaking of CTS, anyone know what a QF A333 (QPE) was doing there on 11 Nov? Flew SYD-HND as the usual scheduled QF25 (10 Nov.), then QF6002 HND-CTS and QF302 CTS-SYD on 11 Nov.

Edit: Must have been a charter of some kind. VH-QPC did the opposite routing on 05 Nov (QF301 SYD-CTS, QF6001 CTS-HND, QF26 HND-SYD on 06 Nov).
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:32 am

Interesting that these charters and Antarctic flights are happening when other RPT routes are being pushed back. The yields must be pretty good on the charters.
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:41 am

MLflyer wrote:
Any of these QF routes are likely to return next year?

BNE-SFO
BNE-HKG
MEL-SFO
SYD-KIX
SYD-CTS

Or are we likely to see other new routes instead?


Not until QF get more aircraft.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 9355
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:54 am

vhebb wrote:
MLflyer wrote:
Any of these QF routes are likely to return next year?

BNE-SFO
BNE-HKG
MEL-SFO
SYD-KIX
SYD-CTS

Or are we likely to see other new routes instead?


Not until QF get more aircraft.


All of those can be done with A330s bar MEL-SFO which I am sure QF have some A330 capacity spare still.
 
vhebb
Posts: 429
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:48 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
vhebb wrote:
MLflyer wrote:
Any of these QF routes are likely to return next year?

BNE-SFO
BNE-HKG
MEL-SFO
SYD-KIX
SYD-CTS

Or are we likely to see other new routes instead?


Not until QF get more aircraft.


All of those can be done with A330s bar MEL-SFO which I am sure QF have some A330 capacity spare still.


SYD-HKG, SYD-PVG, SYD-ICN and MEL-HKG all start soon, add to that 2 A330 get converted to freighters. That's pretty much the A330s fully allocated.
 
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csturdiv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:09 am

Any idea why AA72 left LAX nearly 10 hours later than normal? I accidentally hit the Flightradar24 app on my phone and took a browse around SYD and saw this flight about 10 minutes out from arrival. I wondered if they changed flight times after restarting SYD, but when I tapped on the plane I saw how delayed it was out of LAX.
 
FL420FT
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:30 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:14 am

Fuling wrote:
Speaking of CTS, anyone know what a QF A333 (QPE) was doing there on 11 Nov? Flew SYD-HND as the usual scheduled QF25 (10 Nov.), then QF6002 HND-CTS and QF302 CTS-SYD on 11 Nov.

Edit: Must have been a charter of some kind. VH-QPC did the opposite routing on 05 Nov (QF301 SYD-CTS, QF6001 CTS-HND, QF26 HND-SYD on 06 Nov).


Yep, it was a charter for the Australian Mens baseball team ( less than 70 pax on board)
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:57 am

vhebb wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
vhebb wrote:

Not until QF get more aircraft.


All of those can be done with A330s bar MEL-SFO which I am sure QF have some A330 capacity spare still.


SYD-HKG, SYD-PVG, SYD-ICN and MEL-HKG all start soon, add to that 2 A330 get converted to freighters. That's pretty much the A330s fully allocated.


ICN and I think PVG ? (open to correction on PVG) may also be NSW AAIF funded in partnership with SACL (SYD) from memory. So there are some expenses underwritten per flight on those funded routes.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:50 pm

smi0006 wrote:
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-honolulu-lounge-refurbishment

QF opening refurbed HNL lounge - any idea why QF have a dedicated lounge for so few flights per week? Is it For JQ pax as well? Or to accommodate QF club? Why wouldn’t they just send them to Admirals clubs?


The only other oneworld lounge there is the Japan Airlines / American Airlines lounge. No idea why QF have decided to keep theirs. Maybe they have a long lease they can't get out of, or maybe they get enough other pax in there to justify the facility. Who knows! Not going to complain though! :)
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:31 pm

JQ’s latest toy -OFL enroute XFW-BLR

Flight JQ8992 from Hamburg to Bengaluru
https://fr24.com/JST8992/2e6f6302


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
blrBird
Posts: 537
Joined: Wed Apr 06, 2005 6:39 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:22 pm

EK413 wrote:
JQ’s latest toy -OFL enroute XFW-BLR

Flight JQ8992 from Hamburg to Bengaluru
https://fr24.com/JST8992/2e6f6302


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

From BLR where is this headed to PER/DRW or other?
 
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EK413
Posts: 5929
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:15 pm

blrBird wrote:
EK413 wrote:
JQ’s latest toy -OFL enroute XFW-BLR

Flight JQ8992 from Hamburg to Bengaluru
https://fr24.com/JST8992/2e6f6302


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

From BLR where is this headed to PER/DRW or other?

PER & onto MEL.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
smi0006
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Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:41 am

vhebb wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
vhebb wrote:

Not until QF get more aircraft.


All of those can be done with A330s bar MEL-SFO which I am sure QF have some A330 capacity spare still.


SYD-HKG, SYD-PVG, SYD-ICN and MEL-HKG all start soon, add to that 2 A330 get converted to freighters.
That's pretty much the A330s fully allocated.


Maybe the 321s will free up some 330s in the short term?

I hope we see a 350/789 order replacing the 330s and giving flexibility to rotate onto longhaul adding more flying into Asia, EU and US and simplify the fleet. How soon could they get the earliest 789 or 350 in property?
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:41 am

I think JQ is receiving three A321 deliveries across Dec/Jan.
all to be used on domestic and Bali flights.
 
smi0006
Posts: 3198
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:42 am

Obzerva wrote:
I think JQ is receiving three A321 deliveries across Dec/Jan.
all to be used on domestic and Bali flights.


Hopefully along with RAR we see some more international growth for some variety. Although 321 seems a no brainier for domestic growth too! Surprised they don’t use the current 321 CEOs on the Tasman tbh.
 
tullamarine
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Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:16 am

smi0006 wrote:
vhebb wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

All of those can be done with A330s bar MEL-SFO which I am sure QF have some A330 capacity spare still.


SYD-HKG, SYD-PVG, SYD-ICN and MEL-HKG all start soon, add to that 2 A330 get converted to freighters.
That's pretty much the A330s fully allocated.


Maybe the 321s will free up some 330s in the short term?

I hope we see a 350/789 order replacing the 330s and giving flexibility to rotate onto longhaul adding more flying into Asia, EU and US and simplify the fleet. How soon could they get the earliest 789 or 350 in property?

I would think they could probably receive A359/A35K fairly quickly were they to order given the slots that have opened up as part of the QR shenanigans.

With the current rework backlog on 787s, I would doubt any new order could be fulfilled for a couple of years at least. The rumoured order by UA of 100 787s will probably make their order backlog even longer unless Boeing can speed up their line a bit which is easier said than done given the large amount of outsourced componentry on the 787 line.

The current plan did not foresee the need for the A330s to begin to be replaced for about 5 years so it is probably unlikely they will bring the fleet renewal forward despite the current capacity issues.
Last edited by tullamarine on Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:24 am

QF have started looking at A330 replacements... But based on history the will probably order just 12 to replace the existing 28 A330s.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:33 am

tullamarine wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
vhebb wrote:

SYD-HKG, SYD-PVG, SYD-ICN and MEL-HKG all start soon, add to that 2 A330 get converted to freighters.
That's pretty much the A330s fully allocated.


Maybe the 321s will free up some 330s in the short term?

I hope we see a 350/789 order replacing the 330s and giving flexibility to rotate onto longhaul adding more flying into Asia, EU and US and simplify the fleet. How soon could they get the earliest 789 or 350 in property?

I would think they could probably receive A359/A35K fairly quickly were they to order given the slots that have opened up as part of the QR shenanigans.

With the current rework backlog on 787s, I would doubt any new order could be fulfilled for a couple of years at least. The rumoured order by UA of 100 787s will probably make their order backlog even longer unless Boeing can speed up their line a bit which is easier said than done given the large amount of outsourced componentry on the 787 line.

The current plan did not foresee the need for the A330s to begin to be replaced for about 5 years so it is probably unlikely they will bring the fleet renewal forward despite the current capacity issues.


Agreed - with UA placing a big order. I do wonder considering Boeing lost the narrow body order if they wouldn’t keep a few deliver slots spare for QF (and other carriers) to ensure they can win some business. Otherwise risk loosing some key business
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:27 am

Fuling wrote:
Qantas' inaugural MEL-DFW takes off today at 14:00 AEST, with VH-ZNB doing the honours.


Flight Aware listed the total travel time for this flight from MEL-DFW as 15:25 with 7879 NM. The return flight DFW-MEL on 12/5 has an estimated flight time of 17:16.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:17 am

vhebb wrote:
QF have started looking at A330 replacements... But based on history the will probably order just 12 to replace the existing 28 A330s.


Probably. I would see 789s, I wonder about A359s? So a fleet of 789/35K/359 which can do any route with the 35K on the very long routes. It seems a little surprising they haven’t exercised a few more 789s yet given the wait time.
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 234
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:39 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
vhebb wrote:
QF have started looking at A330 replacements... But based on history the will probably order just 12 to replace the existing 28 A330s.


Probably. I would see 789s, I wonder about A359s? So a fleet of 789/35K/359 which can do any route with the 35K on the very long routes. It seems a little surprising they haven’t exercised a few more 789s yet given the wait time.


It would make sense seeing more 789s or 350 to fit alongside 350K. I suppose aside from price it may come down to who could deliver them first more importantly
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:46 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
vhebb wrote:
QF have started looking at A330 replacements... But based on history the will probably order just 12 to replace the existing 28 A330s.


Probably. I would see 789s, I wonder about A359s? So a fleet of 789/35K/359 which can do any route with the 35K on the very long routes. It seems a little surprising they haven’t exercised a few more 789s yet given the wait time.


It would make sense seeing more 789s or 350 to fit alongside 350K. I suppose aside from price it may come down to who could deliver them first more importantly


I doubt that availability is a huge concern yet, as I doubt we will be seeing deliveries before 2026-2028. The oldest A333s will be around 25 years old and the oldest A332s around 20 years old (could be out by a year or two there).

On paper the 789 seems like the obvious replacement for the A332, with either the 78X or 359 as an A333 replacement. No doubt Qantas will play one against the other to get the best price.

The bigger question is what role an A330 sized aircraft would play in the future fleet. Having said that the 789 seems like the obvious A332 replacement on paper, I actually think the A321 could play a larger role in the future fleet. Qantas’ Asia network is smaller than it could be if they had a more dynamic fleet. Routes like MEL-CGK, PER-HKG, BNE-PVG might be viable with an A321 but would never be served by Qantas with an A330. Having to fill so many sears limits their ability to grow outside SYD and the main SIN/HKG/TYO trifecta ex-MEL/BNE.

There will definitely be a replacement in the 250-300 seat category, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they need 28 aircraft in that size just because that’s what they have at the moment.
 
LTEN11
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:44 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Probably. I would see 789s, I wonder about A359s? So a fleet of 789/35K/359 which can do any route with the 35K on the very long routes. It seems a little surprising they haven’t exercised a few more 789s yet given the wait time.


It would make sense seeing more 789s or 350 to fit alongside 350K. I suppose aside from price it may come down to who could deliver them first more importantly


I doubt that availability is a huge concern yet, as I doubt we will be seeing deliveries before 2026-2028. The oldest A333s will be around 25 years old and the oldest A332s around 20 years old (could be out by a year or two there).

On paper the 789 seems like the obvious replacement for the A332, with either the 78X or 359 as an A333 replacement. No doubt Qantas will play one against the other to get the best price.

The bigger question is what role an A330 sized aircraft would play in the future fleet. Having said that the 789 seems like the obvious A332 replacement on paper, I actually think the A321 could play a larger role in the future fleet. Qantas’ Asia network is smaller than it could be if they had a more dynamic fleet. Routes like MEL-CGK, PER-HKG, BNE-PVG might be viable with an A321 but would never be served by Qantas with an A330. Having to fill so many sears limits their ability to grow outside SYD and the main SIN/HKG/TYO trifecta ex-MEL/BNE.

There will definitely be a replacement in the 250-300 seat category, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they need 28 aircraft in that size just because that’s what they have at the moment.


The problem with sending a 321XLR to any cargo heavy airport like HKG and PVG is the near complete lack of any cargo carrying capability. If the market was there, QF would be better off sending a 330/787, carry 20 tonne of cargo and try and sell excess seats cheap. That would be a better use of a valuable slot, especially at those two ports.

QF will find a niche for the XLR, well actually they must have already, otherwise there would have been little point in ordering it, but I would highly doubt any port in China is on the list
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:11 pm

LTEN11 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:

It would make sense seeing more 789s or 350 to fit alongside 350K. I suppose aside from price it may come down to who could deliver them first more importantly


I doubt that availability is a huge concern yet, as I doubt we will be seeing deliveries before 2026-2028. The oldest A333s will be around 25 years old and the oldest A332s around 20 years old (could be out by a year or two there).

On paper the 789 seems like the obvious replacement for the A332, with either the 78X or 359 as an A333 replacement. No doubt Qantas will play one against the other to get the best price.

The bigger question is what role an A330 sized aircraft would play in the future fleet. Having said that the 789 seems like the obvious A332 replacement on paper, I actually think the A321 could play a larger role in the future fleet. Qantas’ Asia network is smaller than it could be if they had a more dynamic fleet. Routes like MEL-CGK, PER-HKG, BNE-PVG might be viable with an A321 but would never be served by Qantas with an A330. Having to fill so many sears limits their ability to grow outside SYD and the main SIN/HKG/TYO trifecta ex-MEL/BNE.

There will definitely be a replacement in the 250-300 seat category, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they need 28 aircraft in that size just because that’s what they have at the moment.


The problem with sending a 321XLR to any cargo heavy airport like HKG and PVG is the near complete lack of any cargo carrying capability. If the market was there, QF would be better off sending a 330/787, carry 20 tonne of cargo and try and sell excess seats cheap. That would be a better use of a valuable slot, especially at those two ports.

QF will find a niche for the XLR, well actually they must have already, otherwise there would have been little point in ordering it, but I would highly doubt any port in China is on the list


Would you think whatever the replacement may be for the 330 fleet, would QF go down the road of installing PE class on them so they have a bit more commonality with the longer haul side of their fleet?

Agree as good as the XLR is, cargo would play an important role to main destinations where XLR would probably head to the likes of Bali and other secondary markets where cargo isn't as important
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:22 pm

mrkerr7474 wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

I doubt that availability is a huge concern yet, as I doubt we will be seeing deliveries before 2026-2028. The oldest A333s will be around 25 years old and the oldest A332s around 20 years old (could be out by a year or two there).

On paper the 789 seems like the obvious replacement for the A332, with either the 78X or 359 as an A333 replacement. No doubt Qantas will play one against the other to get the best price.

The bigger question is what role an A330 sized aircraft would play in the future fleet. Having said that the 789 seems like the obvious A332 replacement on paper, I actually think the A321 could play a larger role in the future fleet. Qantas’ Asia network is smaller than it could be if they had a more dynamic fleet. Routes like MEL-CGK, PER-HKG, BNE-PVG might be viable with an A321 but would never be served by Qantas with an A330. Having to fill so many sears limits their ability to grow outside SYD and the main SIN/HKG/TYO trifecta ex-MEL/BNE.

There will definitely be a replacement in the 250-300 seat category, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they need 28 aircraft in that size just because that’s what they have at the moment.


The problem with sending a 321XLR to any cargo heavy airport like HKG and PVG is the near complete lack of any cargo carrying capability. If the market was there, QF would be better off sending a 330/787, carry 20 tonne of cargo and try and sell excess seats cheap. That would be a better use of a valuable slot, especially at those two ports.

QF will find a niche for the XLR, well actually they must have already, otherwise there would have been little point in ordering it, but I would highly doubt any port in China is on the list


Would you think whatever the replacement may be for the 330 fleet, would QF go down the road of installing PE class on them so they have a bit more commonality with the longer haul side of their fleet?

Agree as good as the XLR is, cargo would play an important role to main destinations where XLR would probably head to the likes of Bali and other secondary markets where cargo isn't as important


I think QF could have W on all widebodies, places like SIN/HKG/HND they could probably sell it. Unless they have a 2 class 789 sub fleet which they can still use on routes like India and BNE-LAX, though I’m sure they could sell W again on BNE-LAX.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:24 pm

I think the A321LR could do MEL-CGK while an A330 does SYD-CGK, MNL possibly the same.
 
JJWess
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:34 pm

I'd hope the A321XLR's expand QF's footprint in Asia though... even if it means coming at the expense of cargo.
But I'd imagine more 787's can simply help 'fill that void' on routes that warrant it - especially if they created a less premium-dense config (as suggested above).

On another note... why is the 788 frowned upon when compared to the 789/78X?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:27 pm

JJWess wrote:
I'd hope the A321XLR's expand QF's footprint in Asia though... even if it means coming at the expense of cargo.
But I'd imagine more 787's can simply help 'fill that void' on routes that warrant it - especially if they created a less premium-dense config (as suggested above).

On another note... why is the 788 frowned upon when compared to the 789/78X?

The 788, like lots of shrinks such as 762, A310 has efficiency limitations compared with the optimised base model which, for the 787, is the 789. The 788 is comparatively heavy lugging around a lot of weight and a big wing. Its operating cost tends to be not much less than the 789 even though it has less capacity and range. Maybe if the 783 had actually happened, it would have been a better outcome as Boeing would have a more natural successor to the 757 and 767.

The 788, for some reason, has an additional production headache in that it has a number of unique parts compared with its larger siblings. Maybe, now all 787 production is done at CHS, this will eventually be overcome.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:26 am

Philippine Airlines to start 3 weekly MNL-PER from 27 March 23

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/phi ... s-in-2023/
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:45 am

qf789 wrote:
Philippine Airlines to start 3 weekly MNL-PER from 27 March 23

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/phi ... s-in-2023/


I think this must be their third or fourth attempt at PER. They have previously operated 320s on PER-DRW-MNL.
 
Fuling
Posts: 605
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:10 am

What I'd like to see happen with the QF fleet is:

    - JQ replacing all B788 routes with A321XLR (except HNL - perhaps move to QF).
    - JQ's B788 move to QF.
    - QF refit the B787 fleet (with PE), similar to what AC has (B788 J20/C21/Y214 - B789 J30/C21/Y247) for consistency across international.
    - The now 25 B787 replace A330 fleet across Asia Pacific, maybe Africa too.
    - QF order additional A350 (perhaps a mix of -900 and -1000 for flexibility) for other flying to Europe and the Americas.

Obviously this is just my armchair CEO dream, not really taking anything else into consideration.
 
JJWess
Posts: 106
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:30 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:00 am

Fuling wrote:
What I'd like to see happen with the QF fleet is:

    - JQ replacing all B788 routes with A321XLR (except HNL - perhaps move to QF).
    - JQ's B788 move to QF.
    - QF refit the B787 fleet (with PE), similar to what AC has (B788 J20/C21/Y214 - B789 J30/C21/Y247) for consistency across international.
    - The now 25 B787 replace A330 fleet across Asia Pacific, maybe Africa too.
    - QF order additional A350 (perhaps a mix of -900 and -1000 for flexibility) for other flying to Europe and the Americas.

Obviously this is just my armchair CEO dream, not really taking anything else into consideration.


I definitely reckon QF could make 788's work (or at least just more 789's to replace A330's), but the 787 works well for JQ... so I'm not sure if it'd be worth moving them across to QF (like what they did to the ex JQ A330's)
Especially for flights to Bali where it's very popular for JQ's demographic, they definitely could use the extra capacity.
 
JJWess
Posts: 106
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:30 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:02 am

qf789 wrote:
Philippine Airlines to start 3 weekly MNL-PER from 27 March 23

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/phi ... s-in-2023/


Nice to see PER getting some love. I wonder if any EU carriers will ever make it there down the line... I know Virgin Atlantic flagged it in the past but I don't think any expansion west is on the horizon for them.
 
a320fan
Posts: 1155
Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 5:04 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:17 am

JJWess wrote:
Fuling wrote:
What I'd like to see happen with the QF fleet is:

    - JQ replacing all B788 routes with A321XLR (except HNL - perhaps move to QF).
    - JQ's B788 move to QF.
    - QF refit the B787 fleet (with PE), similar to what AC has (B788 J20/C21/Y214 - B789 J30/C21/Y247) for consistency across international.
    - The now 25 B787 replace A330 fleet across Asia Pacific, maybe Africa too.
    - QF order additional A350 (perhaps a mix of -900 and -1000 for flexibility) for other flying to Europe and the Americas.

Obviously this is just my armchair CEO dream, not really taking anything else into consideration.


I definitely reckon QF could make 788's work (or at least just more 789's to replace A330's), but the 787 works well for JQ... so I'm not sure if it'd be worth moving them across to QF (like what they did to the ex JQ A330's)
Especially for flights to Bali where it's very popular for JQ's demographic, they definitely could use the extra capacity.


Those JQ 788s with 335 seats are excellent people movers for low cost flights on bulk travel routes. They definitely have a place in the fleet. No way could the Japan routes work in a JQ config on an A321, Bali will take just about as much capacity as you want to dump at it, Thailand probably less so but having less flights with more seats at good casm works for a low cost carrier, Hawaii won’t work on a 321, though with the poor exchange rate this is not exactly a low cost holiday market currently. These all aren’t frequency minded markets, so flying 335 seats 4-5 times a week surely stacks up more than 7 times a week with 10-30 blocked seats in a 321. The 321 could be great for opening some newer and less volume holiday markets in Asia and the pacific though. See the recent Sydney-Rarotonga announcement.
 
Fuling
Posts: 605
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:24 am

a320fan wrote:
JJWess wrote:
Fuling wrote:
What I'd like to see happen with the QF fleet is:

    - JQ replacing all B788 routes with A321XLR (except HNL - perhaps move to QF).
    - JQ's B788 move to QF.
    - QF refit the B787 fleet (with PE), similar to what AC has (B788 J20/C21/Y214 - B789 J30/C21/Y247) for consistency across international.
    - The now 25 B787 replace A330 fleet across Asia Pacific, maybe Africa too.
    - QF order additional A350 (perhaps a mix of -900 and -1000 for flexibility) for other flying to Europe and the Americas.

Obviously this is just my armchair CEO dream, not really taking anything else into consideration.


I definitely reckon QF could make 788's work (or at least just more 789's to replace A330's), but the 787 works well for JQ... so I'm not sure if it'd be worth moving them across to QF (like what they did to the ex JQ A330's)
Especially for flights to Bali where it's very popular for JQ's demographic, they definitely could use the extra capacity.


Those JQ 788s with 335 seats are excellent people movers for low cost flights on bulk travel routes. They definitely have a place in the fleet. No way could the Japan routes work in a JQ config on an A321, Bali will take just about as much capacity as you want to dump at it, Thailand probably less so but having less flights with more seats at good casm works for a low cost carrier, Hawaii won’t work on a 321, though with the poor exchange rate this is not exactly a low cost holiday market currently. These all aren’t frequency minded markets, so flying 335 seats 4-5 times a week surely stacks up more than 7 times a week with 10-30 blocked seats in a 321. The 321 could be great for opening some newer and less volume holiday markets in Asia and the pacific though. See the recent Sydney-Rarotonga announcement.


I guess I've just lucked out with JQ B788 flights. Even on my several flights to/from Japan pre-covid during peak travel seasons, it's never been over 50% full for me.
 
ArtV
Posts: 194
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:41 am

Fuling wrote:

I guess I've just lucked out with JQ B788 flights. Even on my several flights to/from Japan pre-covid during peak travel seasons, it's never been over 50% full for me.


September BITRE data shows JQ international flights at 90.2% load factor outbound, and 87.6% inbound (which, coincidently, are the same as the industry average load factors for international flights for Australia across all airlines when consolidated!)

So, yes, likely you have been lucky.
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 1266
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:19 am

JJWess wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Philippine Airlines to start 3 weekly MNL-PER from 27 March 23

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/phi ... s-in-2023/


Nice to see PER getting some love. I wonder if any EU carriers will ever make it there down the line... I know Virgin Atlantic flagged it in the past but I don't think any expansion west is on the horizon for them.


VS is effectively DL UK post-COVID with some South African and South American destinations, even more so since the remaining Asian markets that VS served pre-COVID has largely collapsed for them.
 
Obzerva
Posts: 654
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:48 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:20 am

SCFlyer wrote:
JJWess wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Philippine Airlines to start 3 weekly MNL-PER from 27 March 23

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/phi ... s-in-2023/


Nice to see PER getting some love. I wonder if any EU carriers will ever make it there down the line... I know Virgin Atlantic flagged it in the past but I don't think any expansion west is on the horizon for them.


VS is effectively DL UK post-COVID with some South African and South American destinations, even more so since the remaining Asian markets that VS served pre-COVID has largely collapsed for them.


TLV too
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 9355
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:07 am

a320fan wrote:
JJWess wrote:
Fuling wrote:
What I'd like to see happen with the QF fleet is:

    - JQ replacing all B788 routes with A321XLR (except HNL - perhaps move to QF).
    - JQ's B788 move to QF.
    - QF refit the B787 fleet (with PE), similar to what AC has (B788 J20/C21/Y214 - B789 J30/C21/Y247) for consistency across international.
    - The now 25 B787 replace A330 fleet across Asia Pacific, maybe Africa too.
    - QF order additional A350 (perhaps a mix of -900 and -1000 for flexibility) for other flying to Europe and the Americas.

Obviously this is just my armchair CEO dream, not really taking anything else into consideration.


I definitely reckon QF could make 788's work (or at least just more 789's to replace A330's), but the 787 works well for JQ... so I'm not sure if it'd be worth moving them across to QF (like what they did to the ex JQ A330's)
Especially for flights to Bali where it's very popular for JQ's demographic, they definitely could use the extra capacity.


Those JQ 788s with 335 seats are excellent people movers for low cost flights on bulk travel routes. They definitely have a place in the fleet. No way could the Japan routes work in a JQ config on an A321, Bali will take just about as much capacity as you want to dump at it, Thailand probably less so but having less flights with more seats at good casm works for a low cost carrier, Hawaii won’t work on a 321, though with the poor exchange rate this is not exactly a low cost holiday market currently. These all aren’t frequency minded markets, so flying 335 seats 4-5 times a week surely stacks up more than 7 times a week with 10-30 blocked seats in a 321. The 321 could be great for opening some newer and less volume holiday markets in Asia and the pacific though. See the recent Sydney-Rarotonga announcement.


Why couldn’t the Japan routes work with an A321LR ex CNS?

I would think the operating cost of an A321 is significantly lower than a 788 that operating a daily A321 with 20-30 blocked seats would be feasible over a 4-5 weekly 788.
 
ArtV
Posts: 194
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:23 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Why couldn’t the Japan routes work with an A321LR ex CNS?

I would think the operating cost of an A321 is significantly lower than a 788 that operating a daily A321 with 20-30 blocked seats would be feasible over a 4-5 weekly 788.


JQ 321s have 220 seats in a 1 class config, versus 787 with 335 in a 2-class config. Assuming a 2-class A321 with blocked seats, you could be down to approx 170 revenue seats per flight. Even if the 321 has half the operating costs of a 787 (at half the capacity on this route), the 787 can also carry freight, which the 321 realistically can't here, which will be part of the economics.
 
smi0006
Posts: 3198
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:19 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Probably. I would see 789s, I wonder about A359s? So a fleet of 789/35K/359 which can do any route with the 35K on the very long routes. It seems a little surprising they haven’t exercised a few more 789s yet given the wait time.


It would make sense seeing more 789s or 350 to fit alongside 350K. I suppose aside from price it may come down to who could deliver them first more importantly


I doubt that availability is a huge concern yet, as I doubt we will be seeing deliveries before 2026-2028. The oldest A333s will be around 25 years old and the oldest A332s around 20 years old (could be out by a year or two there).

On paper the 789 seems like the obvious replacement for the A332, with either the 78X or 359 as an A333 replacement. No doubt Qantas will play one against the other to get the best price.

The bigger question is what role an A330 sized aircraft would play in the future fleet. Having said that the 789 seems like the obvious A332 replacement on paper, I actually think the A321 could play a larger role in the future fleet. Qantas’ Asia network is smaller than it could be if they had a more dynamic fleet. Routes like MEL-CGK, PER-HKG, BNE-PVG might be viable with an A321 but would never be served by Qantas with an A330. Having to fill so many sears limits their ability to grow outside SYD and the main SIN/HKG/TYO trifecta ex-MEL/BNE.

There will definitely be a replacement in the 250-300 seat category, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they need 28 aircraft in that size just because that’s what they have at the moment.


I think availability is a concern as I don’t see the new order being just for the 330s, but also for long haul expansion for which QF are critically short and unable to respond to competition. Not to mention upcoming Maintance. They don’t need to massively expand in the current economy, but they do need to keep up and ensure they stay relevant in the point to point market.

I think we are seeing all airlines move away from like for like replacements. More than likely 330 replacement will also compliment LH and ULH flying at the top end of capabilities, with 321 replacing the bottom end of Tasman/Domestic.
 
smi0006
Posts: 3198
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:23 am

JJWess wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Philippine Airlines to start 3 weekly MNL-PER from 27 March 23

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/phi ... s-in-2023/


Nice to see PER getting some love. I wonder if any EU carriers will ever make it there down the line... I know Virgin Atlantic flagged it in the past but I don't think any expansion west is on the horizon for them.


Agreed, great to see PER get some love. Wonder who we’ll see next, PAPL are bullish for international growth. Maybe AI? Or SA back? Maybe MU when China opens up? JQ 321LR seems good fit to NZ

Sadly can’t see VS - the aircraft could probs do two US sectors by the time it made it down to PER sadly.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 9355
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:41 am

ArtV wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Why couldn’t the Japan routes work with an A321LR ex CNS?

I would think the operating cost of an A321 is significantly lower than a 788 that operating a daily A321 with 20-30 blocked seats would be feasible over a 4-5 weekly 788.


JQ 321s have 220 seats in a 1 class config, versus 787 with 335 in a 2-class config. Assuming a 2-class A321 with blocked seats, you could be down to approx 170 revenue seats per flight. Even if the 321 has half the operating costs of a 787 (at half the capacity on this route), the 787 can also carry freight, which the 321 realistically can't here, which will be part of the economics.


How much freight is carried on Cairns-Japan? The A321LR is fairly capable around a 7.5hr flight CNS-NRT and within the planes operating range. There is more to it than that and it may depend on what happens to the 788 fleet?
 
User avatar
qf2220
Posts: 2304
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:16 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:59 am

LTEN11 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:

It would make sense seeing more 789s or 350 to fit alongside 350K. I suppose aside from price it may come down to who could deliver them first more importantly


I doubt that availability is a huge concern yet, as I doubt we will be seeing deliveries before 2026-2028. The oldest A333s will be around 25 years old and the oldest A332s around 20 years old (could be out by a year or two there).

On paper the 789 seems like the obvious replacement for the A332, with either the 78X or 359 as an A333 replacement. No doubt Qantas will play one against the other to get the best price.

The bigger question is what role an A330 sized aircraft would play in the future fleet. Having said that the 789 seems like the obvious A332 replacement on paper, I actually think the A321 could play a larger role in the future fleet. Qantas’ Asia network is smaller than it could be if they had a more dynamic fleet. Routes like MEL-CGK, PER-HKG, BNE-PVG might be viable with an A321 but would never be served by Qantas with an A330. Having to fill so many sears limits their ability to grow outside SYD and the main SIN/HKG/TYO trifecta ex-MEL/BNE.

There will definitely be a replacement in the 250-300 seat category, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they need 28 aircraft in that size just because that’s what they have at the moment.


The problem with sending a 321XLR to any cargo heavy airport like HKG and PVG is the near complete lack of any cargo carrying capability. If the market was there, QF would be better off sending a 330/787, carry 20 tonne of cargo and try and sell excess seats cheap. That would be a better use of a valuable slot, especially at those two ports.

QF will find a niche for the XLR, well actually they must have already, otherwise there would have been little point in ordering it, but I would highly doubt any port in China is on the list


For lots of those markets, is there any appreciable cargo volume that an XLR wont be able to lift? Given the density of the Asian networks, its pretty easy to get cargo around even if not on a direct routing (eg via SIA).
 
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cougar15
Posts: 1463
Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:10 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2022

Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:39 am

Old school stuff now, spent a lot of time in the freight industry (overseas) , never knew ECC was a BM. Tried Wiki, not much there, wow many of these did QF have, especially as she was RR powered? .
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