Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

qf002 · Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:24 am

One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

YSSYplanespoter · Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:50 am

qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Could see CNS being a popular route. Wonder if the demand is there though. CBR not so much lol

IndianicWorld · Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:23 am

qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

smi0006 · Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:34 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

SWZ could be an interesting one via SIN, if SWZ turns out to be a freight hub - or maybe just skycargo? Isn’t western Sydney a largish Middle Eastern diaspora? I’m sure QR may look closer, they seem to more a risk taker than EK….. I still think OOL has potential, cargo is a challenge but I’m sure QLD airport will be doing everything to entice carriers to use their new terminal. Perhaps DXB-SIN-OOL or DXB-OOL-AKL?

soyuz · Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:03 pm

Does anyone have any updates on the state of the BNE EK lounge and when it may re-open?

RyanairGuru · Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:33 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

SWZ seems very likely IMHO. People underestimate the size of Western Sydney, SWZ will be more convenient than SYD for something like 2.5 million people. While BNE’s catchment is larger overall, that is a larger market than ADL or PER. Of those, a disproportionately large number have Middle Eastern or Lebanese heritage. While the west is obviously less wealthy overall, there are still a lot of affluent people.

Moreover, from EK’s perspective, having EK414/415 avoid SYD curfew would really benefit their schedule. Departing DXB, EK414 is often prioritised by ATC if there is any chance of missing curfew (noting that you can easily have a 45 minute conga line for take off during an Emirates bank) and the flight will routinely not be held for delayed inbound flights, which also adds cost for hotels etc when other flights might be held 30 minutes or so if necessary. From SYD, not departing until 06:00 limits the number of possible connections, especially during AEST, as it arrives mid-way through their early afternoon bank. EK409, by comparison, departs MEL at 05:15 during AEST. Combined with the slightly shorter flight time, EK409 arrives in DXB an hour earlier than EK415. This allows more connecting flight options, while also reducing the chance of mis-connections in the event of a delay.

SWZ isn’t going to be a premium-heavy market for them, but sending a relatively premium-light/economy-heavy 77W at the back of the clock, while still sending 14F/72J A380s to SYD at more desirable times, would likely work quite well for them.

IndianicWorld · Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:37 pm

smi0006 wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

SWZ could be an interesting one via SIN, if SWZ turns out to be a freight hub - or maybe just skycargo? Isn’t western Sydney a largish Middle Eastern diaspora? I’m sure QR may look closer, they seem to more a risk taker than EK….. I still think OOL has potential, cargo is a challenge but I’m sure QLD airport will be doing everything to entice carriers to use their new terminal. Perhaps DXB-SIN-OOL or DXB-OOL-AKL?

It’s hard to see what SWZ will be yet, as SYD will continue to be closer to the premium pax market. I do tend to think SWZ will largely be a LCC focused airport in its initial stages, and will gradually find its feet and appeal for other services. SYD will be hard to ignore for carriers with premium seats to fill.

OOL doesn’t really offer EK much that BNE can’t already offer. It would offer less premium demand and volume, so even though it may have a local market to tap into, i feel they would be better suited to focusing on BNE as they are certainly not frequency limited into Australia’s major cities.

If anything, if QR didn’t get extra rights into Australia and it wanted to boost its services in South East Queensland, they may well see value in flying to OOL.

LTEN11 · Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:41 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

SWZ seems very likely IMHO. People underestimate the size of Western Sydney (SWZ will be more convenient than SYD for something like 2.5 million people), with a disproportionately large number of those having Middle Eastern or Lebanese heritage, While the west is obviously less wealthy overall, there are still a lot of affluent people.

Moreover, from EK’s perspective, having EK414/415 avoid SYD curfew would really benefit their schedule. Departing DXB, EK414 is often prioritised by ATC if there is any chance of missing curfew (noting that you can easily have a 45 minute conga line for take off during an Emirates bank) and the flight will routinely not be held for delayed inbound flights, which also adds cost for hotels etc when other flights might be held 30 minutes or so if necessary. From SYD, not departing until 06:00 limits the number of possible connections, especially during AEST, as it arrives mid-way through their early afternoon bank. EK409, by comparison, departs MEL at 05:15 during AEST. Combined with the slightly shorter flight time, EK409 arrives in DXB an hour earlier than EK415. This allows more connecting flight options, while also reducing the chance of mis-connections in the event of a delay.

SWZ isn’t going to be a premium-heavy market for them, but sending a relatively premium-light/economy-heavy 77W at the back of the clock, while still sending 14F/72J A380s to SYD at more desirable times, would likely work quite well for them.

EK could probably fill 2 premium heavy A380's out of SWZ everyday when it opens. There is a lot of cash circulating through western/south western Sydney.

IndianicWorld · Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:51 pm

LTEN11 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

SWZ seems very likely IMHO. People underestimate the size of Western Sydney (SWZ will be more convenient than SYD for something like 2.5 million people), with a disproportionately large number of those having Middle Eastern or Lebanese heritage, While the west is obviously less wealthy overall, there are still a lot of affluent people.

Moreover, from EK’s perspective, having EK414/415 avoid SYD curfew would really benefit their schedule. Departing DXB, EK414 is often prioritised by ATC if there is any chance of missing curfew (noting that you can easily have a 45 minute conga line for take off during an Emirates bank) and the flight will routinely not be held for delayed inbound flights, which also adds cost for hotels etc when other flights might be held 30 minutes or so if necessary. From SYD, not departing until 06:00 limits the number of possible connections, especially during AEST, as it arrives mid-way through their early afternoon bank. EK409, by comparison, departs MEL at 05:15 during AEST. Combined with the slightly shorter flight time, EK409 arrives in DXB an hour earlier than EK415. This allows more connecting flight options, while also reducing the chance of mis-connections in the event of a delay.

SWZ isn’t going to be a premium-heavy market for them, but sending a relatively premium-light/economy-heavy 77W at the back of the clock, while still sending 14F/72J A380s to SYD at more desirable times, would likely work quite well for them.

EK could probably fill 2 premium heavy A380's out of SWZ everyday when it opens. There is a lot of cash circulating through western/south western Sydney.

The lack of a curfew will certainly help so it may well look at a split operation if it stacks up as things rebuild over the next few years leading up to the opening. They will already be back up to 3 x daily into SYD in a couple of months afterall, and who knows what the market may be like in 3 years, but it will be hard to ignore focusing their attention on SYD.

Depending on the situation of frequencies allocations at that time, QR will also be an interesting one by then as they have been quite willing to open new network opportunities when possible. This will also likely play a part in the position that EK is in at that stage and what they can or will want to do.

oskarclare · Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:26 pm

YSSYplanespoter wrote:
qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Could see CNS being a popular route. Wonder if the demand is there though. CBR not so much lol

There was a few articles and talk a few years ago that suggested QLD gov, CNS and FNQ tourism were all trying to get EK to do a DXB-BNE-CNS-BNE-DXB flight and have a an additional 4x weekly flights into BNE. Obviously that never came to fruition with the whole corona crap but never know maybe one day.

Gangurru · Mon Jan 23, 2023 3:36 pm

YSSYplanespoter wrote:
qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Could see CNS being a popular route. Wonder if the demand is there though. CBR not so much lol

Pre COVID, CNS had the numbers to support more international flights. I used to live there and Cairns Airport stated over 1/3rd of its domestic passengers were international visitors. That was over 1m passengers from memory.

Cairns is a holiday destination, so I'd wonder about the size of the business class market?

As the UAE needs to import food, there would be plenty of agricultural freight from Cairns.

a19901213 · Mon Jan 23, 2023 5:33 pm

Once EK starts taking delivery of 787 then it seems like a good fit to start with 4x weekly CNS service

ClassicLover · Mon Jan 23, 2023 6:11 pm

LTEN11 wrote:
EK could probably fill 2 premium heavy A380's out of SWZ everyday when it opens. There is a lot of cash circulating through western/south western Sydney.

It's a real shame the people of Western Sydney don't have an airport now. How jealous they must feel of all the people in Eastern Sydney who can travel, while they are stuck where they are.

People will travel to whichever airport has the plane going to where they want to go. I imagine a bunch of airlines will relocate or co-locate to SWZ to take advantage of the curfew free status and it's also likely to be cheaper to operate from.

The airport operator will be doing their best to attract tenants and they're going to want someone big, so I'll be interested to see who moves all or some of their flights there. Other airlines have operations at two airports in a city (Aer Lingus at LHR and LGW, Ryanair at STN, LGW and LTN, Aer Lingus at JFK and EWR, and so on) so I daresay you might see a lot of carriers serve both, depending on the flight schedules they want to operate and the pricing being offered.

mrkerr7474 · Mon Jan 23, 2023 7:02 pm

Do you think, even further down the road, EK would look to do any tags to the new 77W BNE flight to NZ? For instance onto WLG seeing as NZ is the only carrier there as no QF or VA, or even to CHC instead?

Or aside from the A380 SYD-CHC tag, EK isn't really interested in tag on flights?

cpd · Mon Jan 23, 2023 7:16 pm

LTEN11 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

SWZ seems very likely IMHO. People underestimate the size of Western Sydney (SWZ will be more convenient than SYD for something like 2.5 million people), with a disproportionately large number of those having Middle Eastern or Lebanese heritage, While the west is obviously less wealthy overall, there are still a lot of affluent people.

Moreover, from EK’s perspective, having EK414/415 avoid SYD curfew would really benefit their schedule. Departing DXB, EK414 is often prioritised by ATC if there is any chance of missing curfew (noting that you can easily have a 45 minute conga line for take off during an Emirates bank) and the flight will routinely not be held for delayed inbound flights, which also adds cost for hotels etc when other flights might be held 30 minutes or so if necessary. From SYD, not departing until 06:00 limits the number of possible connections, especially during AEST, as it arrives mid-way through their early afternoon bank. EK409, by comparison, departs MEL at 05:15 during AEST. Combined with the slightly shorter flight time, EK409 arrives in DXB an hour earlier than EK415. This allows more connecting flight options, while also reducing the chance of mis-connections in the event of a delay.

SWZ isn’t going to be a premium-heavy market for them, but sending a relatively premium-light/economy-heavy 77W at the back of the clock, while still sending 14F/72J A380s to SYD at more desirable times, would likely work quite well for them.

EK could probably fill 2 premium heavy A380's out of SWZ everyday when it opens. There is a lot of cash circulating through western/south western Sydney.

Wow! I didn’t know that it wasn’t possible for people in South Western Sydney to travel by plane before the new SWZ airport comes along.

How did we ever fly previously? Maybe we just got on a train and went to YSSY instead, or had a transfer car…

NTLDaz · Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:09 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

SWZ seems very likely IMHO. People underestimate the size of Western Sydney, SWZ will be more convenient than SYD for something like 2.5 million people. While BNE’s catchment is larger overall, that is a larger market than ADL or PER. Of those, a disproportionately large number have Middle Eastern or Lebanese heritage. While the west is obviously less wealthy overall, there are still a lot of affluent people.

Moreover, from EK’s perspective, having EK414/415 avoid SYD curfew would really benefit their schedule. Departing DXB, EK414 is often prioritised by ATC if there is any chance of missing curfew (noting that you can easily have a 45 minute conga line for take off during an Emirates bank) and the flight will routinely not be held for delayed inbound flights, which also adds cost for hotels etc when other flights might be held 30 minutes or so if necessary. From SYD, not departing until 06:00 limits the number of possible connections, especially during AEST, as it arrives mid-way through their early afternoon bank. EK409, by comparison, departs MEL at 05:15 during AEST. Combined with the slightly shorter flight time, EK409 arrives in DXB an hour earlier than EK415. This allows more connecting flight options, while also reducing the chance of mis-connections in the event of a delay.

SWZ isn’t going to be a premium-heavy market for them, but sending a relatively premium-light/economy-heavy 77W at the back of the clock, while still sending 14F/72J A380s to SYD at more desirable times, would likely work quite well for them.

The largest Middle East diaspora is around the Canterbury - Bankstown area, which is much, much closer to SYD than SWZ.

I expect QR or EK to be early users of SWZ but mainly because of the curfew free operation.

Velocity7 · Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:47 pm

Since 15/01 EK430 DXB-BNE now an 0700 arrival (was previously 2240), must have been living under a rock! Nice to see an A380 in daylight hours! Wonder why it has changed?

tullamarine · Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:50 pm

YSSYplanespoter wrote:
Speaking of those A330 flights to Adelaide, the one to Perth had to return to Adelaide. Starting to question a few things about QF now.

No need to worry. GT was on the news last night and said everything is fine....particularly his Chairman's Lounge membership.

SInGAPORE_AIR · Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:52 pm

QF887 ADL-PER turned back to ADL: https://twitter.com/search?q=QF887&f=live

tullamarine · Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:55 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
qf002 wrote:
One has to wonder what EK's next play in Australia will be - it seems likely that DXB-SWZ will be on the cards in a few years but in the meantime it would be fun to see them try something like DXB-SIN-CNS/OOL or DXB-CBR-AKL.

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

In the next few years EK's fleet will be more flexible with the addition of both 789s and A359s. This will make routes currently assessed as marginal when all you have is A380s and 77Ws much more viable.

RyanairGuru · Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:12 pm

Velocity7 wrote:
Since 15/01 EK430 DXB-BNE now an 0700 arrival (was previously 2240), must have been living under a rock! Nice to see an A380 in daylight hours! Wonder why it has changed?

Using EK430/431 for the current flight is slightly peculiar, as it reverts to EK434/435 when the second service launches in June, but it’s probably not worth reading too much into actual flight numbers used, rather than the schedule.

The morning arrival (~06:00-07:00) and evening departure (~21:00) has always been the most convenient flight times and generally attract a fare premium over the other flights, across SYD/MEL/BNE. The only reason they didn’t relaunch with this schedule was that parking an aircraft outside of DXB for 23 hours was an easy way to manage the shortage of parking bays in DXB when aircraft were still in storage.

I assume they relaunched with the EK430/431 flight numbers as the arrival time in the late evening reflected the EK430 schedule before Covid, and then in turn adopted EK431 for the departure rather than EK435. Even though they have now reverted to the EK434/435 schedule in both directions, I would assume it was easier internally to not change the flight numbers around until they were adding the second daily flight anyway.

345tas · Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:18 pm

Tonight's (UK time) QF2 has been delayed almost 13 hours until 0900 tomorrow, although QF1 operated in as normal this morning (VH-OQH). Anyone know the reason? LHR has been messy the last two days due to mist, but I wouldn't think that's the reason for this, and also it's pretty much cleared I think.

DeltaB717 · Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:31 pm

From what I've read, QF887 returned to ADL due to a passenger's medical episode.

It's been said a number of times in the last week that air turn backs are common, as are diversions and even PANs. It's also been said many times that not every time one of these events happens is it 'cause for concern' or a reason to 'question things' about an airline. As part of the aviation community and a group of 'experts', surely we can do better...

qf2220 · Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:57 pm

IndianicWorld wrote:
I do tend to think SWZ will largely be a LCC focused airport in its initial stages, and will gradually find its feet and appeal for other services. SYD will be hard to ignore for carriers with premium seats to fill.

I think that the first part of this is definitely up for questioning. The west isnt as poor as we might think, and being closer to the Southern Highlands, Blue Mountains and in many respects, the Central Coast, which all have wealth that isnt worth sniffing at.

I think there will be more full service there than we think from the onset.

LTEN11 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:02 am

cpd wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

SWZ seems very likely IMHO. People underestimate the size of Western Sydney (SWZ will be more convenient than SYD for something like 2.5 million people), with a disproportionately large number of those having Middle Eastern or Lebanese heritage, While the west is obviously less wealthy overall, there are still a lot of affluent people.

Moreover, from EK’s perspective, having EK414/415 avoid SYD curfew would really benefit their schedule. Departing DXB, EK414 is often prioritised by ATC if there is any chance of missing curfew (noting that you can easily have a 45 minute conga line for take off during an Emirates bank) and the flight will routinely not be held for delayed inbound flights, which also adds cost for hotels etc when other flights might be held 30 minutes or so if necessary. From SYD, not departing until 06:00 limits the number of possible connections, especially during AEST, as it arrives mid-way through their early afternoon bank. EK409, by comparison, departs MEL at 05:15 during AEST. Combined with the slightly shorter flight time, EK409 arrives in DXB an hour earlier than EK415. This allows more connecting flight options, while also reducing the chance of mis-connections in the event of a delay.

SWZ isn’t going to be a premium-heavy market for them, but sending a relatively premium-light/economy-heavy 77W at the back of the clock, while still sending 14F/72J A380s to SYD at more desirable times, would likely work quite well for them.

EK could probably fill 2 premium heavy A380's out of SWZ everyday when it opens. There is a lot of cash circulating through western/south western Sydney.

Wow! I didn’t know that it wasn’t possible for people in South Western Sydney to travel by plane before the new SWZ airport comes along.

How did we ever fly previously? Maybe we just got on a train and went to YSSY instead, or had a transfer car…

Where did I say they're not travelling now ? So let's not put words up that weren't spoken.

I live in the area and the new airport will be far more convenient to a lot of people and if the airlines offer the right destinations and timings, there will be no shortage of patrons.

LTEN11 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:15 am

NTLDaz wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:

Unless it really wants to add a flight in what is the curfew period at SYD, I am not sure I see the need for them to fly into SWZ. SYD will still have capacity during the operating hours and will likely have more availability when SWZ opens.

As for next steps, the only market I see them potentially adding is resuming ADL in future. Other markets just don’t really have the volume they would likely need to make them work.

SWZ seems very likely IMHO. People underestimate the size of Western Sydney, SWZ will be more convenient than SYD for something like 2.5 million people. While BNE’s catchment is larger overall, that is a larger market than ADL or PER. Of those, a disproportionately large number have Middle Eastern or Lebanese heritage. While the west is obviously less wealthy overall, there are still a lot of affluent people.

Moreover, from EK’s perspective, having EK414/415 avoid SYD curfew would really benefit their schedule. Departing DXB, EK414 is often prioritised by ATC if there is any chance of missing curfew (noting that you can easily have a 45 minute conga line for take off during an Emirates bank) and the flight will routinely not be held for delayed inbound flights, which also adds cost for hotels etc when other flights might be held 30 minutes or so if necessary. From SYD, not departing until 06:00 limits the number of possible connections, especially during AEST, as it arrives mid-way through their early afternoon bank. EK409, by comparison, departs MEL at 05:15 during AEST. Combined with the slightly shorter flight time, EK409 arrives in DXB an hour earlier than EK415. This allows more connecting flight options, while also reducing the chance of mis-connections in the event of a delay.

SWZ isn’t going to be a premium-heavy market for them, but sending a relatively premium-light/economy-heavy 77W at the back of the clock, while still sending 14F/72J A380s to SYD at more desirable times, would likely work quite well for them.

The largest Middle East diaspora is around the Canterbury - Bankstown area, which is much, much closer to SYD than SWZ.

I expect QR or EK to be early users of SWZ but mainly because of the curfew free operation.

I'm in the Liverpool area and there is a large Indian, Bangladeshi and Pakistani population, but their total numbers would be about half of those of the Arabic population. Like the rest of Sydney, they are moving to where the is room and a million dollar house will get you something two to three times the size of something closer to the city and inner west.. There are lots of schools targeting this population, as well as numerous large mosques to cater for them. I know quite a few and they regularly travel back to the old countries and the vast majority of them will choose EK whenever possible.

a7ala · Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:19 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
Do you think, even further down the road, EK would look to do any tags to the new 77W BNE flight to NZ? For instance onto WLG seeing as NZ is the only carrier there as no QF or VA, or even to CHC instead?

Or aside from the A380 SYD-CHC tag, EK isn't really interested in tag on flights?

Whether EK expands further into Australia or New Zealand will depend on the partnership with QF. EK hasnt opened up any new ports since ADL in 2012 which I presume was timed with the partnership being agreed by the ACC and maybe a sweetner to get the deal with the regulator done?

Since then, any EK capacity increase has come through the gateway ports with QF providing connectivity to other potential EK destinations. Im sure QF wont be encouraging EK to open new ports, with one eye on the future if the partnership ever went sour.

jrfspa320 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:22 am

a7ala wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
Do you think, even further down the road, EK would look to do any tags to the new 77W BNE flight to NZ? For instance onto WLG seeing as NZ is the only carrier there as no QF or VA, or even to CHC instead?

Or aside from the A380 SYD-CHC tag, EK isn't really interested in tag on flights?

Whether EK expands further into Australia or New Zealand will depend on the partnership with QF. EK hasnt opened up any new ports since ADL in 2012 which I presume was timed with the partnership being agreed by the ACC and maybe a sweetner to get the deal with the regulator done?

Since then, any EK capacity increase has come through the gateway ports with QF providing connectivity to other potential EK destinations. Im sure QF wont be encouraging EK to open new ports, with one eye on the future if the partnership ever went sour.

QF fly into WLG, i cant see there being enough demand for EK to add a tag onto WLG, pax can easily be transferred onto QF

Even CNS is highly seasonal and most inbound tourism is from North Asia which is not where EK pax will originate from

SCFlyer · Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:23 am

Any EK expansion into regional ports e.g CBR, HBA, CNS, OOL, etc would likely be heavily reliant on incentives from the respective jurisdictions/states' "aviation fund in partnership with" the appropriate regional airport.

Without those incentives, EK will likely shy away from expanding into regional Australia without that funding.

NTLDaz · Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:10 am

LTEN11 wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:

SWZ seems very likely IMHO. People underestimate the size of Western Sydney, SWZ will be more convenient than SYD for something like 2.5 million people. While BNE’s catchment is larger overall, that is a larger market than ADL or PER. Of those, a disproportionately large number have Middle Eastern or Lebanese heritage. While the west is obviously less wealthy overall, there are still a lot of affluent people.

Moreover, from EK’s perspective, having EK414/415 avoid SYD curfew would really benefit their schedule. Departing DXB, EK414 is often prioritised by ATC if there is any chance of missing curfew (noting that you can easily have a 45 minute conga line for take off during an Emirates bank) and the flight will routinely not be held for delayed inbound flights, which also adds cost for hotels etc when other flights might be held 30 minutes or so if necessary. From SYD, not departing until 06:00 limits the number of possible connections, especially during AEST, as it arrives mid-way through their early afternoon bank. EK409, by comparison, departs MEL at 05:15 during AEST. Combined with the slightly shorter flight time, EK409 arrives in DXB an hour earlier than EK415. This allows more connecting flight options, while also reducing the chance of mis-connections in the event of a delay.

SWZ isn’t going to be a premium-heavy market for them, but sending a relatively premium-light/economy-heavy 77W at the back of the clock, while still sending 14F/72J A380s to SYD at more desirable times, would likely work quite well for them.

The largest Middle East diaspora is around the Canterbury - Bankstown area, which is much, much closer to SYD than SWZ.

I expect QR or EK to be early users of SWZ but mainly because of the curfew free operation.

I'm in the Liverpool area and there is a large Indian, Bangladeshi and Pakistani population, but their total numbers would be about half of those of the Arabic population. Like the rest of Sydney, they are moving to where the is room and a million dollar house will get you something two to three times the size of something closer to the city and inner west.. There are lots of schools targeting this population, as well as numerous large mosques to cater for them. I know quite a few and they regularly travel back to the old countries and the vast majority of them will choose EK whenever possible.

Indeed - Fairfield / Liverpool would have the highest amount of Middle Eastern heritage people after Canterbury -Bankstown.

The vast cultural diversity of Western Sydney may see SWZ get some flights not even being thought of by most. As also mentioned there is plenty of cash around ( although it is a big mortgage belt ).

The massive, and growing, sub continent population presents some interesting opportunities. I suspect SWZ will see more international growth than some imagine.

My guess is very shortly after opening we will see SQ/TR, NZ, QF/JQ, EK or QR ( or both ). I also think there is a big chance of Cebu Pacific and Air Asia.

tullamarine · Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:21 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Any EK expansion into regional ports e.g CBR, HBA, CNS, OOL, etc would likely be heavily reliant on incentives from the respective jurisdictions/states' "aviation fund in partnership with" the appropriate regional airport.

Without those incentives, EK will likely shy away from expanding into regional Australia without that funding.

Incentives may help and will cover initial costs and losses but the incentives are not forever so, if the route doesn't make economic sense in the medium term, it probably won't happen. EK tend not to be interested in low volume routes so unless it can run at least 4 or 5 days per week, it probably isn't viable for them.

As I said upthread, EK's modelling and hurdle rate calculations will change with the arrival of the 789s and A359s which will alter the demand point at which a route is deemed viable. In some respects, it will be a return to their earlier days where they launched new routes with A310s and gradually upscaled through to A343s then 777s.

ben175 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:45 am

Is EK still only 1 x daily into PER? Absolutely crazy how they went from having a complete stronghold on that market half a decade ago (was once 3 x daily) to this, especially with the absence of EY.

F100Flyer · Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:47 am

ben175 wrote:
Is EK still only 1 x daily into PER? Absolutely crazy how they went from having a complete stronghold on that market half a decade ago (was once 3 x daily) to this, especially with the absence of EY.

DXB-PER-AKL as its second daily... :duck:

RyanairGuru · Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:04 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Any EK expansion into regional ports e.g CBR, HBA, CNS, OOL, etc would likely be heavily reliant on incentives from the respective jurisdictions/states' "aviation fund in partnership with" the appropriate regional airport.

Without those incentives, EK will likely shy away from expanding into regional Australia without that funding.

Any of those, plus WLG, are simply too small to generate any meaningful levels of demand. OOL is close enough to BNE to not generate significant new demand that isn’t already served, while also not being a particularly large inbound market from points west of DXB. CNS doesn’t generate enough inbound demand from Europe, and much of what it does cater to is the backpacker market. SQ fly a 737 to CNS, which is probably a fairly good indication of the market. Other than Gold Coast, Canberra is by far the largest city on that list (roughly twice the size of Hobart and Wellington) and yet apparently had passenger numbers closer to 0 than 100 on QR.

Emirates doesn’t need to fly tag flights to regional Australia (such as the previous QR flight to CBR) to get around the bilateral, as the Aus-UAE has plenty of free capacity, and can rely on Qantas to serve provide such feed as exists.

jrfspa320 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:04 am

ben175 wrote:
Is EK still only 1 x daily into PER? Absolutely crazy how they went from having a complete stronghold on that market half a decade ago (was once 3 x daily) to this, especially with the absence of EY.

Recently reverted back to daily A380, but they seem to play second fiddle to QR out of PER these days. Anecdotally, EKs service is not what it once was, particularly as DOH and SIN are much nicer to transit. The QF9/10 is also popular as is SQ.

RyanairGuru · Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:07 am

a7ala wrote:

EK hasnt opened up any new ports since ADL in 2012 which I presume was timed with the partnership being agreed by the ACC and maybe a sweetner to get the deal with the regulator done?

ADL was launched because EK and EY had maxed out their bilateral capacity to the four main markets, which is also why QR launched ADL a few years later. The UAE bilateral was subsequently expanded and now has plenty of unused frequencies, although ADL has presumably performed well enough to justify its continued existence.

NZ516 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:42 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
a7ala wrote:

EK hasnt opened up any new ports since ADL in 2012 which I presume was timed with the partnership being agreed by the ACC and maybe a sweetner to get the deal with the regulator done?

ADL was launched because EK and EY had maxed out their bilateral capacity to the four main markets, which is also why QR launched ADL a few years later. The UAE bilateral was subsequently expanded and now has plenty of unused frequencies, although ADL has presumably performed well enough to justify its continued existence.

EK has dropped ADL back in 2020. They could possibly return using 787s when EK get them.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... Covid%2D19.

a7ala · Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:51 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Canberra is by far the largest city on that list (roughly twice the size of Hobart and Wellington) and yet apparently had passenger numbers closer to 0 than 100 on QR.

Huh? Population of ACT around 430k. Population of Wellington Region 540k (800k if you include Manawatu-Whanganui).

IndianicWorld · Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:17 am

qf2220 wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
I do tend to think SWZ will largely be a LCC focused airport in its initial stages, and will gradually find its feet and appeal for other services. SYD will be hard to ignore for carriers with premium seats to fill.

I think that the first part of this is definitely up for questioning. The west isnt as poor as we might think, and being closer to the Southern Highlands, Blue Mountains and in many respects, the Central Coast, which all have wealth that isnt worth sniffing at.

I think there will be more full service there than we think from the onset.

Airlines will look at what brings the maximum operational, cost and demand benefits that they need, so there will likely be full service carriers that will look at the option. Whether it stacks up is another story, but I am sure airline teams will work through that in the next few years.

It will be interesting to see what role SWZ plays in the QF and VA networks, as they will be wary of moving too much as that will free up capacity at SYD for competitors to potentially take advantage of. They will have to find the right balance.

But yes, my personal opinion is that the first moves will be largely driven by the LCC’s. Air Asia X, Scoot, Cebu Pacific, Jetstar and Bonza all come to mind, but can also see Air New Zealand splitting their operations too.

RyanairGuru · Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:34 am

a7ala wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
Canberra is by far the largest city on that list (roughly twice the size of Hobart and Wellington) and yet apparently had passenger numbers closer to 0 than 100 on QR.

Huh? Population of ACT around 430k. Population of Wellington Region 540k (800k if you include Manawatu-Whanganui).

Google tells me that the population of Wellington is 212,700 (or at least was in 2017). Having never been there or knowing nothing about the place, I had no reason to doubt that.

Edit: this source says that the ‘metro’ population was 422,000 in 2022. https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/2196 ... population
That’s still smaller than Canberra on a ‘metro’ basis, without over 50,000 people in Queanbeyan.

mrkerr7474 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:45 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
a7ala wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
Do you think, even further down the road, EK would look to do any tags to the new 77W BNE flight to NZ? For instance onto WLG seeing as NZ is the only carrier there as no QF or VA, or even to CHC instead?

Or aside from the A380 SYD-CHC tag, EK isn't really interested in tag on flights?

Whether EK expands further into Australia or New Zealand will depend on the partnership with QF. EK hasnt opened up any new ports since ADL in 2012 which I presume was timed with the partnership being agreed by the ACC and maybe a sweetner to get the deal with the regulator done?

Since then, any EK capacity increase has come through the gateway ports with QF providing connectivity to other potential EK destinations. Im sure QF wont be encouraging EK to open new ports, with one eye on the future if the partnership ever went sour.

QF fly into WLG, i cant see there being enough demand for EK to add a tag onto WLG, pax can easily be transferred onto QF

Even CNS is highly seasonal and most inbound tourism is from North Asia which is not where EK pax will originate from

QF fly to WLG via MEL and SYD only. Sorry if I was confusing but I was meaning a BNE to WLG tag with EK (even if not daily) as currently Air NZ are the only ones who fly it that route. I don't believe QF have ever flown it or if they have, it hasn't been flown for some time.

Kiwings · Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:03 am

The reality is that SQ could not make WLG work despite the airport subsidies. Can't see EK attempting it in the forseeable future.

a7ala · Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:53 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
a7ala wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
Canberra is by far the largest city on that list (roughly twice the size of Hobart and Wellington) and yet apparently had passenger numbers closer to 0 than 100 on QR.

Huh? Population of ACT around 430k. Population of Wellington Region 540k (800k if you include Manawatu-Whanganui).

Google tells me that the population of Wellington is 212,700 (or at least was in 2017). Having never been there or knowing nothing about the place, I had no reason to doubt that.

Edit: this source says that the ‘metro’ population was 422,000 in 2022. https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/2196 ... population
That’s still smaller than Canberra on a ‘metro’ basis, without over 50,000 people in Queanbeyan.

Wellington is made up of a number of local authorities including Wellington City (which is the 200k ish), Hutt City, Upper Hutt, Porirua, Kapiti, and Wairarapa. All apart from the Wairarapa (which is 1-1.5 hours) is within 1 hours drive of Airport. There has been talk on and off about amalgamating the authorities as Auckland did a few years ago. Manawatu is around 1-2 hours drive.

At the end of the day its all about airport catchment and CBR suffers from SYD up the road and a pretty small visitor market. WLG doesnt have an international airport within drive distance and gets far more visitors, in part due to New Zealand being a touring country and some people just want to tour the north island (or the South island). Before Covid in 2019, WLG was getting over 70 international return flights a week with almost 1m international pax - around the same number as ADL was in 2019.

a7ala · Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:56 am

Kiwings wrote:
The reality is that SQ could not make WLG work despite the airport subsidies. Can't see EK attempting it in the forseeable future.

What makes you think it didnt work? Increase in frequency and introduction of A350-900 just prior to Covid doesnt suggest it didnt work...

Agree on EK though - with QF providing access there is no need for them to do it. Unless something competitive in the market changes ;-)

RyanairGuru · Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:03 am

NZ516 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
a7ala wrote:

EK hasnt opened up any new ports since ADL in 2012 which I presume was timed with the partnership being agreed by the ACC and maybe a sweetner to get the deal with the regulator done?

ADL was launched because EK and EY had maxed out their bilateral capacity to the four main markets, which is also why QR launched ADL a few years later. The UAE bilateral was subsequently expanded and now has plenty of unused frequencies, although ADL has presumably performed well enough to justify its continued existence.

EK has dropped ADL back in 2020. They could possibly return using 787s when EK get them.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... Covid%2D19.

I didn’t realise that it hadn’t been reinstated after Covid, apologies for that oversight.

SInGAPORE_AIR · Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:08 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
From what I've read, QF887 returned to ADL due to a passenger's medical episode.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-24/ ... /101888324

RyanairGuru · Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:09 am

a7ala wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
a7ala wrote:

Huh? Population of ACT around 430k. Population of Wellington Region 540k (800k if you include Manawatu-Whanganui).

Google tells me that the population of Wellington is 212,700 (or at least was in 2017). Having never been there or knowing nothing about the place, I had no reason to doubt that.

Edit: this source says that the ‘metro’ population was 422,000 in 2022. https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/2196 ... population
That’s still smaller than Canberra on a ‘metro’ basis, without over 50,000 people in Queanbeyan.

Wellington is made up of a number of local authorities including Wellington City (which is the 200k ish), Hutt City, Upper Hutt, Porirua, Kapiti, and Wairarapa. All apart from the Wairarapa (which is 1-1.5 hours) is within 1 hours drive of Airport. There has been talk on and off about amalgamating the authorities as Auckland did a few years ago. Manawatu is around 1-2 hours drive.

At the end of the day its all about airport catchment and CBR suffers from SYD up the road and a pretty small visitor market. WLG doesnt have an international airport within drive distance and gets far more visitors, in part due to New Zealand being a touring country and some people just want to tour the north island (or the South island). Before Covid in 2019, WLG was getting over 70 international return flights a week with almost 1m international pax - around the same number as ADL was in 2019.

Fair enough about having more inbound demand, but as another poster said SQ haven’t restored WLG after Covid, which is firstly more likely than EK launching it, and secondly could indicate that the market isn’t really there. Even if we take a potential market of 800,000 people, that’s still significantly smaller than ADL (for example). Also, how much inbound international demand is there to WLG, other than Australia/South Pacific and government/diplomatic traffic? You talk about New Zealand being a touring market, which is definitely true, but inbound tourism from long haul markets is generally Auckland -> Christchurch, not just the North Island.

NPL8800 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:21 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
a7ala wrote:

Whether EK expands further into Australia or New Zealand will depend on the partnership with QF. EK hasnt opened up any new ports since ADL in 2012 which I presume was timed with the partnership being agreed by the ACC and maybe a sweetner to get the deal with the regulator done?

Since then, any EK capacity increase has come through the gateway ports with QF providing connectivity to other potential EK destinations. Im sure QF wont be encouraging EK to open new ports, with one eye on the future if the partnership ever went sour.

QF fly into WLG, i cant see there being enough demand for EK to add a tag onto WLG, pax can easily be transferred onto QF

Even CNS is highly seasonal and most inbound tourism is from North Asia which is not where EK pax will originate from

QF fly to WLG via MEL and SYD only. Sorry if I was confusing but I was meaning a BNE to WLG tag with EK (even if not daily) as currently Air NZ are the only ones who fly it that route. I don't believe QF have ever flown it or if they have, it hasn't been flown for some time.

QF have flown BNE-WLG as a summer seasonal, I recall the last period was around either 2018 or 2019.

Kiwings · Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:37 am

a7ala wrote:
Kiwings wrote:
The reality is that SQ could not make WLG work despite the airport subsidies. Can't see EK attempting it in the forseeable future.

What makes you think it didnt work? Increase in frequency and introduction of A350-900 just prior to Covid doesnt suggest it didnt work...

WLG City Council was subsidising to route heavily but refused to release the details. Yes, they operated a 350 but from memory the f/e product on the 777 was a regional SQ product. The fact that SQ have not cone back says it all.
The problem EK would face is they would only be able to sell transtasman to the niminated point (BNE) and then its M.E. UK and Europe. SQ had those markets plus all of Asia - alot more potential pax and still decided not to return.
I know Wellingtonians would love some more service but it simply can not sustain it year round day in, day out.

mrkerr7474 · Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:47 am

Kiwings wrote:
a7ala wrote:
Kiwings wrote:
The reality is that SQ could not make WLG work despite the airport subsidies. Can't see EK attempting it in the forseeable future.

What makes you think it didnt work? Increase in frequency and introduction of A350-900 just prior to Covid doesnt suggest it didnt work...

WLG City Council was subsidising to route heavily but refused to release the details. Yes, they operated a 350 but from memory the f/e product on the 777 was a regional SQ product. The fact that SQ have not cone back says it all.
The problem EK would face is they would only be able to sell transtasman to the niminated point (BNE) and then its M.E. UK and Europe. SQ had those markets plus all of Asia - alot more potential pax and still decided not to return.
I know Wellingtonians would love some more service but it simply can not sustain it year round day in, day out.

Whether SQ were able to make it work without the subsidies, no one will know as yes they most likely won't return, well not for a few more years at least. I think it was a good testament to them that they went from a regional 777 to the long haul configured A350 just prior to covid and they increased the flights quickly to 5 weekly and was talk of daily not long before covid came into it.

Ultimately SQ would have wanted to fly the route directly between SIN-WLG but probably couldn't make carrying no freight work for them. That part is my opinion but makes some sense

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