NPL8800 wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

QF fly into WLG, i cant see there being enough demand for EK to add a tag onto WLG, pax can easily be transferred onto QF

Even CNS is highly seasonal and most inbound tourism is from North Asia which is not where EK pax will originate from

QF fly to WLG via MEL and SYD only. Sorry if I was confusing but I was meaning a BNE to WLG tag with EK (even if not daily) as currently Air NZ are the only ones who fly it that route. I don't believe QF have ever flown it or if they have, it hasn't been flown for some time.

QF have flown BNE-WLG as a summer seasonal, I recall the last period was around either 2018 or 2019.

I don’t recall that. They have flown it in the distant past, a little surprised they haven’t returned myself.

ZK-NBT wrote:

NPL8800 wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

QF fly to WLG via MEL and SYD only. Sorry if I was confusing but I was meaning a BNE to WLG tag with EK (even if not daily) as currently Air NZ are the only ones who fly it that route. I don't believe QF have ever flown it or if they have, it hasn't been flown for some time.

QF have flown BNE-WLG as a summer seasonal, I recall the last period was around either 2018 or 2019.

I don’t recall that. They have flown it in the distant past, a little surprised they haven’t returned myself.

I was working at the airport at the time and distinctly remember them, MEL and SYD also had extra flights around the same period beyond their usual daily and double daily frequencies.

ZK-NBT wrote:

NPL8800 wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

QF fly to WLG via MEL and SYD only. Sorry if I was confusing but I was meaning a BNE to WLG tag with EK (even if not daily) as currently Air NZ are the only ones who fly it that route. I don't believe QF have ever flown it or if they have, it hasn't been flown for some time.

QF have flown BNE-WLG as a summer seasonal, I recall the last period was around either 2018 or 2019.

I don’t recall that. They have flown it in the distant past, a little surprised they haven’t returned myself.

They capture some of the low yield stuff with JQ from OOL. Even NZ is only daily A320 so clearly not a huge market

VA was also flying daily BNE-WLG daily pre-covid. As none of the carriers are in a rush to fill the VA capacity on this route suggests the yields aren't that flash.

tullamarine wrote:

YSSYplanespoter wrote:

Speaking of those A330 flights to Adelaide, the one to Perth had to return to Adelaide. Starting to question a few things about QF now.

No need to worry. GT was on the news last night and said everything is fine....particularly his Chairman's Lounge membership.

Ah! Why of course!

WLG certainly seems to be in a bit of a shadow of AKL and CHC when looking at international services. Having an airport capable of operating longer haul flights would be good, but not sure that would really unlock much.

Both of those other cities serve as hubs for their respective islands, and although WLG has the government and some corporate demand, when thinking of visiting New Zealand many may well overlook it.

The comparisons to some cities in Australia is certainly interesting in terms of catchment zones though. When comparing Canberra to Wellington for instance, the latter certainly performs far stronger in terms of international service. Having larger cities in Australia like SYD, MEL and BNE helps WLG though, but would still expect that AKL should be able to work from CBR.

QF Perth-Kalgoorlie returned to Perth after mechanical issue

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101889308

mrkerr7474 wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

a7ala wrote:

Whether EK expands further into Australia or New Zealand will depend on the partnership with QF. EK hasnt opened up any new ports since ADL in 2012 which I presume was timed with the partnership being agreed by the ACC and maybe a sweetner to get the deal with the regulator done?

Since then, any EK capacity increase has come through the gateway ports with QF providing connectivity to other potential EK destinations. Im sure QF wont be encouraging EK to open new ports, with one eye on the future if the partnership ever went sour.

QF fly into WLG, i cant see there being enough demand for EK to add a tag onto WLG, pax can easily be transferred onto QF

Even CNS is highly seasonal and most inbound tourism is from North Asia which is not where EK pax will originate from

QF fly to WLG via MEL and SYD only. Sorry if I was confusing but I was meaning a BNE to WLG tag with EK (even if not daily) as currently Air NZ are the only ones who fly it that route. I don't believe QF have ever flown it or if they have, it hasn't been flown for some time.

Previously QF flew 767s BNE to WLG for over 20 years. Not sure why it got dropped but it's been gone for a long time.

waoz1 wrote:

QF Perth-Kalgoorlie returned to Perth after mechanical issue

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101889308

The QF spokesperson did say however that the flight could have landed at Kalgoolie, but it would have had to be grounded until engineering fixed whatever the issue was. In saying that, there's no maintenance support there. What I will say however is that it's becoming comedic at this point.

NZ516 wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

QF fly into WLG, i cant see there being enough demand for EK to add a tag onto WLG, pax can easily be transferred onto QF

Even CNS is highly seasonal and most inbound tourism is from North Asia which is not where EK pax will originate from

QF fly to WLG via MEL and SYD only. Sorry if I was confusing but I was meaning a BNE to WLG tag with EK (even if not daily) as currently Air NZ are the only ones who fly it that route. I don't believe QF have ever flown it or if they have, it hasn't been flown for some time.

Previously QF flew 767s BNE to WLG for over 20 years. Not sure why it got dropped but it's been gone for a long time.

For a period of time QF was the only international flight out of Wellington - on a 747SP no less.

NTLDaz wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

QF fly to WLG via MEL and SYD only. Sorry if I was confusing but I was meaning a BNE to WLG tag with EK (even if not daily) as currently Air NZ are the only ones who fly it that route. I don't believe QF have ever flown it or if they have, it hasn't been flown for some time.

Previously QF flew 767s BNE to WLG for over 20 years. Not sure why it got dropped but it's been gone for a long time.

For a period of time QF was the only international flight out of Wellington - on a 747SP no less.

While not the 747SP (was such a cool airplane) in future, I do see the 321XLR of QF doing SYD-WLG and the A220 doing MEL-WLG. The A220 might be the right size aircraft for QF to look at BNE-WLG, even if that is probably 10 years away

Otherwise I do see VA eventually jumping back on this route (BNE-WLG) at some point in the future

mrkerr7474 wrote:

NTLDaz wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

Previously QF flew 767s BNE to WLG for over 20 years. Not sure why it got dropped but it's been gone for a long time.

For a period of time QF was the only international flight out of Wellington - on a 747SP no less.

While not the 747SP (was such a cool airplane) in future, I do see the 321XLR of QF doing SYD-WLG and the A220 doing MEL-WLG. The A220 might be the right size aircraft for QF to look at BNE-WLG, even if that is probably 10 years away

Otherwise I do see VA eventually jumping back on this route (BNE-WLG) at some point in the future

Given the huge number of Kiwis in Queensland it certainly seems a hole in the network.

SInGAPORE_AIR wrote:

DeltaB717 wrote:

From what I've read, QF887 returned to ADL due to a passenger's medical episode.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-24/ ... /101888324

Well, indeed... you can't see me, but I am eating my words. Big time!

Question - In 2005 Boeing and Qantas announced an agreement for 45 Dreamliners, with 20 options, plus purchase rights for an additional 50 aircraft. Totally 155 potential aircraft.
Considering Qantas Group are only operating 22 787's (11 788's with Jetstar and 11 789's with QF), with only 3 more on order. Does QF still have 90 odd aircraft available to order, or have these purchase rights and options expired?

Also aware QF has chosen the A350 for Project Sunrise. But wanted to ask specifically about the original 787 order.

mrkerr7474 wrote:

NTLDaz wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

Previously QF flew 767s BNE to WLG for over 20 years. Not sure why it got dropped but it's been gone for a long time.

For a period of time QF was the only international flight out of Wellington - on a 747SP no less.

While not the 747SP (was such a cool airplane) in future, I do see the 321XLR of QF doing SYD-WLG and the A220 doing MEL-WLG. The A220 might be the right size aircraft for QF to look at BNE-WLG, even if that is probably 10 years away

Otherwise I do see VA eventually jumping back on this route (BNE-WLG) at some point in the future

Well there was speculation going around that VA may be returning to BNE-DUD. BNE-WLG on the other hand, I do wonder if that qualifies as a 'leisure' route on VA's watch. WLG (and DUD for that matter) may have potential to even pick up a few codeshare passengers from SQ and QR to help/inflate the loads with 'low yield' connections end.

aerohottie wrote:

Question - In 2005 Boeing and Qantas announced an agreement for 45 Dreamliners, with 20 options, plus purchase rights for an additional 50 aircraft. Totally 155 potential aircraft.
Considering Qantas Group are only operating 22 787's (11 788's with Jetstar and 11 789's with QF), with only 3 more on order. Does QF still have 90 odd aircraft available to order, or have these purchase rights and options expired?

Also aware QF has chosen the A350 for Project Sunrise. But wanted to ask specifically about the original 787 order.

Not all of them. Quite a few of the purchase rights and options will have lapsed. Obviously, Boeing aren't going to allow a customer to access launch pricing forever.

SCFlyer wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

NTLDaz wrote:

For a period of time QF was the only international flight out of Wellington - on a 747SP no less.

While not the 747SP (was such a cool airplane) in future, I do see the 321XLR of QF doing SYD-WLG and the A220 doing MEL-WLG. The A220 might be the right size aircraft for QF to look at BNE-WLG, even if that is probably 10 years away

Otherwise I do see VA eventually jumping back on this route (BNE-WLG) at some point in the future

Well there was speculation going around that VA may be returning to BNE-DUD. BNE-WLG on the other hand, I do wonder if that qualifies as a 'leisure' route on VA's watch. WLG (and DUD for that matter) may have potential to even pick up a few codeshare passengers from SQ and QR to help/inflate the loads with 'low yield' connections end.

VA hasn't given any indication that they are interested in re-entering NZ routes except leisure routes aimed at Australian population such as ZQN.

I'm no expert in revenue management but my understanding is the revenue VA would receive from SQ or QR etc for an end of line codeshare route like SYD-WLG is fairly pathetic.

VA will assess trans-Tasman routes on how viable they are as a standalone prospect. They are keenly aware that they will always be a minnow on trans-Tasman so they will have to be a price-taker. To be competitive and attract higher yielding business traffic, involves significant investment in both maintenance and crew bases on the other side of the Tasman. So far, they are much keener to invest in their core domestic franchise which probably makes more sense in the short to medium term.

tullamarine wrote:

SCFlyer wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

While not the 747SP (was such a cool airplane) in future, I do see the 321XLR of QF doing SYD-WLG and the A220 doing MEL-WLG. The A220 might be the right size aircraft for QF to look at BNE-WLG, even if that is probably 10 years away

Otherwise I do see VA eventually jumping back on this route (BNE-WLG) at some point in the future

Well there was speculation going around that VA may be returning to BNE-DUD. BNE-WLG on the other hand, I do wonder if that qualifies as a 'leisure' route on VA's watch. WLG (and DUD for that matter) may have potential to even pick up a few codeshare passengers from SQ and QR to help/inflate the loads with 'low yield' connections end.

VA hasn't given any indication that they are interested in re-entering NZ routes except leisure routes aimed at Australian population such as ZQN.

I'm no expert in revenue management but my understanding is the revenue VA would receive from SQ or QR etc for an end of line codeshare route like SYD-WLG is fairly pathetic.

VA will assess trans-Tasman routes on how viable they are as a standalone prospect. They are keenly aware that they will always be a minnow on trans-Tasman so they will have to be a price-taker. To be competitive and attract higher yielding business traffic, involves significant investment in both maintenance and crew bases on the other side of the Tasman. So far, they are much keener to invest in their core domestic franchise which probably makes more sense in the short to medium term.

DUD is largely considered as a leisure route, and there was speculation the Dunedin City Council and the local airport may offer incentives (subsidies) to VA to restart the route. It's a matter of wait and see on this one.

As for WLG, considering none of NZ or JQ out of OOL are rushing to fill the VA capacity on Queensland to WLG suggests that (as mentioned upthread), WLG's yields aren't really that flash to be considered a 'business' type route.

tullamarine wrote:

aerohottie wrote:

Question - In 2005 Boeing and Qantas announced an agreement for 45 Dreamliners, with 20 options, plus purchase rights for an additional 50 aircraft. Totally 155 potential aircraft.
Considering Qantas Group are only operating 22 787's (11 788's with Jetstar and 11 789's with QF), with only 3 more on order. Does QF still have 90 odd aircraft available to order, or have these purchase rights and options expired?

Also aware QF has chosen the A350 for Project Sunrise. But wanted to ask specifically about the original 787 order.

Not all of them. Quite a few of the purchase rights and options will have lapsed. Obviously, Boeing aren't going to allow a customer to access launch pricing forever.

Interesting. I think in the context that QF has 30 odd A330's eventually needing replacement. Doesn't QF already have the replacement aircraft available with really sharp pricing through the original order?

SCFlyer wrote:

As for WLG, considering none of NZ or JQ out of OOL are rushing to fill the VA capacity on Queensland to WLG suggests that (as mentioned upthread), WLG's yields aren't really that flash to be considered a 'business' type route.

NZ has just recently announced an increase in WLG-BNE to 9x weekly, the largest number of flights I can recall them ever having on the route. Having said that, when VA and NZ were in partnership, VA operated the route 14x weekly and NZ kept off the route altogether.

I do find it interesting that while OOL is up to 9x weekly on NZ from AKL, and 4x weekly from CHC, NZ has never (in recent times, anyway) operated WLG-OOL. Back in the days when SJ operated on the Tasman, they operated HLZ-OOL, PMR-OOL and DUD-OOL.

aerohottie wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

aerohottie wrote:

Question - In 2005 Boeing and Qantas announced an agreement for 45 Dreamliners, with 20 options, plus purchase rights for an additional 50 aircraft. Totally 155 potential aircraft.
Considering Qantas Group are only operating 22 787's (11 788's with Jetstar and 11 789's with QF), with only 3 more on order. Does QF still have 90 odd aircraft available to order, or have these purchase rights and options expired?

Also aware QF has chosen the A350 for Project Sunrise. But wanted to ask specifically about the original 787 order.

Not all of them. Quite a few of the purchase rights and options will have lapsed. Obviously, Boeing aren't going to allow a customer to access launch pricing forever.

Interesting. I think in the context that QF has 30 odd A330's eventually needing replacement. Doesn't QF already have the replacement aircraft available with really sharp pricing through the original order?

Obviously not. Their initial 787 pricing was supposedly amazingly good. If it was still available to them, I wouldn't expect they'd bother with a bid process as the original pricing would be unbeatable even if the 787 wasn't judged the perfect candidate.

tullamarine wrote:

aerohottie wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

Not all of them. Quite a few of the purchase rights and options will have lapsed. Obviously, Boeing aren't going to allow a customer to access launch pricing forever.

Interesting. I think in the context that QF has 30 odd A330's eventually needing replacement. Doesn't QF already have the replacement aircraft available with really sharp pricing through the original order?

Obviously not. Their initial 787 pricing was supposedly amazingly good. If it was still available to them, I wouldn't expect they'd bother with a bid process as the original pricing would be unbeatable even if the 787 wasn't judged the perfect candidate.

In regards to the a330 replacement, I think the order of the a321XLR is a partial replacement, which will allow some of the older aircraft to be retired, but since their widebodies don't have the same cycles as their narrow bodies I'm kind of not expecting a lot of retirements until later in the decade.

I do see them ordering more 787s to replace the rest of the a330s, as the current layout of the 789s are setup for long haul flights, whereas they need a less premium setup with about 300 seats to directly replace the a330s, which mostly fly into Asia.

SCFlyer wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

SCFlyer wrote:

Well there was speculation going around that VA may be returning to BNE-DUD. BNE-WLG on the other hand, I do wonder if that qualifies as a 'leisure' route on VA's watch. WLG (and DUD for that matter) may have potential to even pick up a few codeshare passengers from SQ and QR to help/inflate the loads with 'low yield' connections end.

VA hasn't given any indication that they are interested in re-entering NZ routes except leisure routes aimed at Australian population such as ZQN.

I'm no expert in revenue management but my understanding is the revenue VA would receive from SQ or QR etc for an end of line codeshare route like SYD-WLG is fairly pathetic.

VA will assess trans-Tasman routes on how viable they are as a standalone prospect. They are keenly aware that they will always be a minnow on trans-Tasman so they will have to be a price-taker. To be competitive and attract higher yielding business traffic, involves significant investment in both maintenance and crew bases on the other side of the Tasman. So far, they are much keener to invest in their core domestic franchise which probably makes more sense in the short to medium term.

DUD is largely considered as a leisure route, and there was speculation the Dunedin City Council and the local airport may offer incentives (subsidies) to VA to restart the route. It's a matter of wait and see on this one.

As for WLG, considering none of NZ or JQ out of OOL are rushing to fill the VA capacity on Queensland to WLG suggests that (as mentioned upthread), WLG's yields aren't really that flash to be considered a 'business' type route.

Well JQ is beginning to ramp up to x6 weekly on WLG-OOL that was supposed to happen in 2020 so they must see demand and a strategic need to be there. They'll be splitting the schedule as well doing an evening arrival and departure from WLG on top of the lunchtime flights.

Pcoder wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

aerohottie wrote:

Interesting. I think in the context that QF has 30 odd A330's eventually needing replacement. Doesn't QF already have the replacement aircraft available with really sharp pricing through the original order?

Obviously not. Their initial 787 pricing was supposedly amazingly good. If it was still available to them, I wouldn't expect they'd bother with a bid process as the original pricing would be unbeatable even if the 787 wasn't judged the perfect candidate.

In regards to the a330 replacement, I think the order of the a321XLR is a partial replacement, which will allow some of the older aircraft to be retired, but since their widebodies don't have the same cycles as their narrow bodies I'm kind of not expecting a lot of retirements until later in the decade.

I do see them ordering more 787s to replace the rest of the a330s, as the current layout of the 789s are setup for long haul flights, whereas they need a less premium setup with about 300 seats to directly replace the a330s, which mostly fly into Asia.

I personally see some more 789 in the same config for LH ex-MEL/BNE and parts of Asia maybe 5-8 and a smaller fleet 5-10 787-10 for denser Asia - HKG, SIN, HND and if Boeing delivers on the HGW - BNE-LAX, SYD-YVR, SYD-JNB. The 321 fleet picks up the rest. I dont think there will be a like for like replacement for the 330s when either side of the fleet there is a more flexible option. A little like the 738 replacement - I’m not sure we’ll see a 320 replacing 738 just A220s and 321s squeezing out the middle.

Sidenote is the Japan-AU bilateral seat constrained at all? 787-10 seems a great fit in the long term ex-MEL/SYD.

QF2544, BNE-BKQ, returned to Brisbane this morning, although it couldn't have been that serious as the aircraft flew again this afternoon. The tide on the media front seems to be turning a bit as the media hasn't picked up on this, yet...

YSSYplanespoter wrote:

QF2544, BNE-BKQ, returned to Brisbane this morning, although it couldn't have been that serious as the aircraft flew again this afternoon. The tide on the media front seems to be turning a bit as the media hasn't picked up on this, yet...

... as they shouldn't. Every airline flying to, from and within Australia has delays, turnbacks, medical diversions. Time for them to move on unless it actually is newsworthy.

myki wrote:

YSSYplanespoter wrote:

QF2544, BNE-BKQ, returned to Brisbane this morning, although it couldn't have been that serious as the aircraft flew again this afternoon. The tide on the media front seems to be turning a bit as the media hasn't picked up on this, yet...

... as they shouldn't. Every airline flying to, from and within Australia has delays, turnbacks, medical diversions. Time for them to move on unless it actually is newsworthy.

I agree with you, that's exactly right.

myki wrote:

YSSYplanespoter wrote:

QF2544, BNE-BKQ, returned to Brisbane this morning, although it couldn't have been that serious as the aircraft flew again this afternoon. The tide on the media front seems to be turning a bit as the media hasn't picked up on this, yet...

... as they shouldn't. Every airline flying to, from and within Australia has delays, turnbacks, medical diversions. Time for them to move on unless it actually is newsworthy.

I agree with you, but who gets to determine what's newsworthy ?

smi0006 wrote:

Sidenote is the Japan-AU bilateral seat constrained at all? 787-10 seems a great fit in the long term ex-MEL/SYD.

Australia-Japan is Open Skies apart from HND

smi0006 wrote:

Pcoder wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

Obviously not. Their initial 787 pricing was supposedly amazingly good. If it was still available to them, I wouldn't expect they'd bother with a bid process as the original pricing would be unbeatable even if the 787 wasn't judged the perfect candidate.

In regards to the a330 replacement, I think the order of the a321XLR is a partial replacement, which will allow some of the older aircraft to be retired, but since their widebodies don't have the same cycles as their narrow bodies I'm kind of not expecting a lot of retirements until later in the decade.

I do see them ordering more 787s to replace the rest of the a330s, as the current layout of the 789s are setup for long haul flights, whereas they need a less premium setup with about 300 seats to directly replace the a330s, which mostly fly into Asia.

I personally see some more 789 in the same config for LH ex-MEL/BNE and parts of Asia maybe 5-8 and a smaller fleet 5-10 787-10 for denser Asia - HKG, SIN, HND and if Boeing delivers on the HGW - BNE-LAX, SYD-YVR, SYD-JNB. The 321 fleet picks up the rest. I dont think there will be a like for like replacement for the 330s when either side of the fleet there is a more flexible option. A little like the 738 replacement - I’m not sure we’ll see a 320 replacing 738 just A220s and 321s squeezing out the middle.

Sidenote is the Japan-AU bilateral seat constrained at all? 787-10 seems a great fit in the long term ex-MEL/SYD.

Well my wishful thinking is they get more 787’s to not only replace the A330’s, but to also grow the fleet in size (the 787’s just open up so many routes not economically viable in the past when QF could only fly the mammoth A380’s/747’s to LH destinations).

However, I think it’s going to boil down to price and who can deliver. QF could probably get the A330neo for a significantly cheaper price and for a much quicker turn-round time re delivery so I wouldn’t rule it out.

tullamarine wrote:

aerohottie wrote:

Question - In 2005 Boeing and Qantas announced an agreement for 45 Dreamliners, with 20 options, plus purchase rights for an additional 50 aircraft. Totally 155 potential aircraft.
Considering Qantas Group are only operating 22 787's (11 788's with Jetstar and 11 789's with QF), with only 3 more on order. Does QF still have 90 odd aircraft available to order, or have these purchase rights and options expired?

Also aware QF has chosen the A350 for Project Sunrise. But wanted to ask specifically about the original 787 order.

Not all of them. Quite a few of the purchase rights and options will have lapsed. Obviously, Boeing aren't going to allow a customer to access launch pricing forever.

QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years.

An option reserves a specific place in the production chain and a price. Each option has a fixed date before a decision must be made which is defined by the contract. Options are limited to a relatively shorter timeframe from the order. Generally as a good rule of thumb, options follow a similar pattern and timeframe to the original order. For example, if the original order was 10 plus 5 options and then original 10 are delivered one per quarter of 2.5 years, then the 5 options are likely following the original order on a similar continuing timeline, i.e. each quarter for and additional 1.25 years. Purchase right only fix the price, or the model for which the price is determined. Purchase rights often have a slightly longer timeframe, but even then if the delivery book is longer when the airline wants to use them they may be moot since the the purchase rights link to delivery date rather than order date.

However, when Qantas restructured the order in 2012, the options and rights were maintained but brought forward in terms of date, available from 2016 (delivery slots). The options would have expired by about 2020 or thereabouts (simply looking at the delivery timeframes at that time). In 2015, the order of the B787-9s was likely exploiting purchase rights, as was the 9th. Given the time since that, it's almost certain that they've now expired.

evanb wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

aerohottie wrote:

Question - In 2005 Boeing and Qantas announced an agreement for 45 Dreamliners, with 20 options, plus purchase rights for an additional 50 aircraft. Totally 155 potential aircraft.
Considering Qantas Group are only operating 22 787's (11 788's with Jetstar and 11 789's with QF), with only 3 more on order. Does QF still have 90 odd aircraft available to order, or have these purchase rights and options expired?

Also aware QF has chosen the A350 for Project Sunrise. But wanted to ask specifically about the original 787 order.

Not all of them. Quite a few of the purchase rights and options will have lapsed. Obviously, Boeing aren't going to allow a customer to access launch pricing forever.

QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years.

An option reserves a specific place in the production chain and a price. Each option has a fixed date before a decision must be made which is defined by the contract. Options are limited to a relatively shorter timeframe from the order. Generally as a good rule of thumb, options follow a similar pattern and timeframe to the original order. For example, if the original order was 10 plus 5 options and then original 10 are delivered one per quarter of 2.5 years, then the 5 options are likely following the original order on a similar continuing timeline, i.e. each quarter for and additional 1.25 years. Purchase right only fix the price, or the model for which the price is determined. Purchase rights often have a slightly longer timeframe, but even then if the delivery book is longer when the airline wants to use them they may be moot since the the purchase rights link to delivery date rather than order date.

However, when Qantas restructured the order in 2012, the options and rights were maintained but brought forward in terms of date, available from 2016 (delivery slots). The options would have expired by about 2020 or thereabouts (simply looking at the delivery timeframes at that time). In 2015, the order of the B787-9s was likely exploiting purchase rights, as was the 9th. Given the time since that, it's almost certain that they've now expired.

Thanks for the detailed explanation Evanb. It's interesting to know what all of the aspects are for options and purchase rights. Cheers

For Qantas when they get more 380s back into service they will be in a better position to open new routes. If all of the MEL LAX flying is all switched to 380 it will free up two 787s. So with the other 3 787s coming from Boeing it's equivalent of 5 787s joining the fleet this year. Perhaps DFW could see more flights added from both SYD and MEL.

Odds on NZ resuming seasonal PER-CHC?

ben175 wrote:

Odds on NZ resuming seasonal PER-CHC?

With what aircraft? NZ can't even operate AKL-PER with their own fleet it's that tight. Maybe eventually for CHC-PER, but most likely not within the year.

Fuling wrote:

ben175 wrote:

Odds on NZ resuming seasonal PER-CHC?

With what aircraft? NZ can't even operate AKL-PER with their own fleet it's that tight. Maybe eventually for CHC-PER, but most likely not within the year.

Maybe if they order a second batch of a321NEO’s, that are either the XLR or XLR models.

Both of NZ’s a321NEO fleet are the standard model for International and the Domestic ones are de-ratted. Both configurations are all Y, the international ones would push it to make CHC-PER.

NZ516 wrote:

For Qantas when they get more 380s back into service they will be in a better position to open new routes. If all of the MEL LAX flying is all switched to 380 it will free up two 787s. So with the other 3 787s coming from Boeing it's equivalent of 5 787s joining the fleet this year. Perhaps DFW could see more flights added from both SYD and MEL.

I can see MEL-DFW going daily (MEL airport wants it to afterall).
Perhaps SYD-DFW will go back to A380? That’ll free up more 787’s

JJWess wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

For Qantas when they get more 380s back into service they will be in a better position to open new routes. If all of the MEL LAX flying is all switched to 380 it will free up two 787s. So with the other 3 787s coming from Boeing it's equivalent of 5 787s joining the fleet this year. Perhaps DFW could see more flights added from both SYD and MEL.

I can see MEL-DFW going daily (MEL airport wants it to afterall).
Perhaps SYD-DFW will go back to A380? That’ll free up more 787’s

Would the x10 A380 be able to cover SYD-LAX/LHR/DFW and MEL-LAX/DFW?

mrkerr7474 wrote:

JJWess wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

For Qantas when they get more 380s back into service they will be in a better position to open new routes. If all of the MEL LAX flying is all switched to 380 it will free up two 787s. So with the other 3 787s coming from Boeing it's equivalent of 5 787s joining the fleet this year. Perhaps DFW could see more flights added from both SYD and MEL.

I can see MEL-DFW going daily (MEL airport wants it to afterall).
Perhaps SYD-DFW will go back to A380? That’ll free up more 787’s

Would the x10 A380 be able to cover SYD-LAX/LHR/DFW and MEL-LAX/DFW?

No, SYD will remain B789 with MEL-DFW now operating doesn’t warrant A380 equipment on the route.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

EK413 wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

JJWess wrote:

I can see MEL-DFW going daily (MEL airport wants it to afterall).
Perhaps SYD-DFW will go back to A380? That’ll free up more 787’s

Would the x10 A380 be able to cover SYD-LAX/LHR/DFW and MEL-LAX/DFW?

No, SYD will remain B789 with MEL-DFW now operating doesn’t warrant A380 equipment on the route.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The above would need 11 to run all daily. I agree DFW probably won’t see the A380 again with MEL now running. I would think MEL-SIN and then something out of JNB/SCL/YVR/SFO none of which strike me as needing likely a less than daily A380. Maybe just 8 will be used with a spare and another in maintenance but that seems poor, even additional LAX there is AA but QF do run some extra peak flights.

ZK-NBT wrote:

EK413 wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

Would the x10 A380 be able to cover SYD-LAX/LHR/DFW and MEL-LAX/DFW?

No, SYD will remain B789 with MEL-DFW now operating doesn’t warrant A380 equipment on the route.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The above would need 11 to run all daily. I agree DFW probably won’t see the A380 again with MEL now running. I would think MEL-SIN and then something out of JNB/SCL/YVR/SFO none of which strike me as needing likely a less than daily A380. Maybe just 8 will be used with a spare and another in maintenance but that seems poor, even additional LAX there is AA but QF do run some extra peak flights.

MEL-SIN I could see returning, perhaps once things get a little more normal in HKG, it will return to SYD-HKG but otherwise hard to see where else it is needed so a spare / maintenance is most likely which as you say, seems poor use

(Please correct this if it's wrong)
I've drafted up a 'list' of where all the QF 787's are currently utilised with their respective schedules (as per the QF website for July 2023).
Just wanted to get an idea on where they're all being used, and how things will pan out once the additional 3 787's come in and more A380's are re-activated.
All of the schedules are respective of the days they depart Aus, not when they return (i.e. the FCO service departs PER on M, W and Sat but departs FCO Tu, Thur, Sun)
This is also assuming the fact that QF receive the remaining 3 787's by June this year.

SYD-DFW - Daily - 2 Frames
SYD-JNB - Daily - 2 Frames
MEL/PER-LHR - Daily - 2 Frames
MEL-LAX - Daily - 2 Frames (Will be back to A380 eventually)
SYD-LAX "ADHOC" - 1 Weekly (Monday) - 1 Frame
SYD-YVR - 3 Weekly (Monday, Wednesday, Saturday) - 1 Frame
SYD/PER-FCO - 3 Weekly (Monday, Wednesday, Saturday) - 1 Frame
SYD-SCL - 4 Weekly (Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, Sunday) - 1/2 Frames (depending on the day)
SYD-SFO - 3 Weekly (Monday, Thursday, Saturday) - 1 Frame
SYD/AKL-JFK - 3 Weekly (Wednesday, Friday, Sunday) - 1 Frame

(Obviously the list doesn't 'add up' to 14 frames... but this is A.net so I don't think I really need to explain that lol)

Some comments:
* SFO is a shadow of it's former pre-covid self. Operating 3 weekly ex SYD compared to the services from BNE/MEL/SYD back in early 2020. I wonder if QF will consider launching BNE-SFO with A330's sometime soon as they seem to have spare's + the range necessary. BNE-USA capacity is way down
* As per the QF schedule available on their site, MEL-LAX no longer has an "adhoc" service scheduled in. I assume with MEL-DFW now operating, they've shifted that capacity onto that new route
* The SYD-LAX adhoc flight is also down to only once a week - used to operate I believe on Tuesday's and Thursday's pre-covid? Correct me if I'm wrong. (QF17)
* Once the A380's return to MEL-LAX, my 'prediction' is that MEL-DFW will go daily. This will thus provide 1 spare 787. Either SFO capacity will be increased, or a new EU route launched, which brings me to my next point...
* With the Paris Olympics approaching in 2024, what are the chances QF launch PER-CDG in time for that? (Or even a SIN-CDG service on an A330 or spare A380 if plausible?). I know PER-CDG was heavily discussed pre-covid
* As pointed out above, it's highly unlikely that SYD-DFW will see the A380 again - so out of the current 787 routes, which would be the most likely to see it replaced with an A380? Does JNB have the demand? (I know HKG/SIN were mentioned to probably see the A380 again... but as QF could really use more 787's, what's their best 'action' to free some of them up?)

Anyway I just wanted more insight/opinion. I've become increasingly interested in route planning/fleet management, and I had some spare time today that I was happy to kill lol

DeltaB717 wrote:

SInGAPORE_AIR wrote:

DeltaB717 wrote:

From what I've read, QF887 returned to ADL due to a passenger's medical episode.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-24/ ... /101888324

Well, indeed... you can't see me, but I am eating my words. Big time!

Don't let QF off the hook so easily, it could have been the fish they served...

Speedy recover the to passenger!

EK413 wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

JJWess wrote:

I can see MEL-DFW going daily (MEL airport wants it to afterall).
Perhaps SYD-DFW will go back to A380? That’ll free up more 787’s

Would the x10 A380 be able to cover SYD-LAX/LHR/DFW and MEL-LAX/DFW?

No, SYD will remain B789 with MEL-DFW now operating doesn’t warrant A380 equipment on the route.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The AKL - JFK flight will likely take away some DFW passengers as well.

evanb wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

aerohottie wrote:

Question - In 2005 Boeing and Qantas announced an agreement for 45 Dreamliners, with 20 options, plus purchase rights for an additional 50 aircraft. Totally 155 potential aircraft.
Considering Qantas Group are only operating 22 787's (11 788's with Jetstar and 11 789's with QF), with only 3 more on order. Does QF still have 90 odd aircraft available to order, or have these purchase rights and options expired?

Also aware QF has chosen the A350 for Project Sunrise. But wanted to ask specifically about the original 787 order.

Not all of them. Quite a few of the purchase rights and options will have lapsed. Obviously, Boeing aren't going to allow a customer to access launch pricing forever.

QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years.

An option reserves a specific place in the production chain and a price. Each option has a fixed date before a decision must be made which is defined by the contract. Options are limited to a relatively shorter timeframe from the order. Generally as a good rule of thumb, options follow a similar pattern and timeframe to the original order. For example, if the original order was 10 plus 5 options and then original 10 are delivered one per quarter of 2.5 years, then the 5 options are likely following the original order on a similar continuing timeline, i.e. each quarter for and additional 1.25 years. Purchase right only fix the price, or the model for which the price is determined. Purchase rights often have a slightly longer timeframe, but even then if the delivery book is longer when the airline wants to use them they may be moot since the the purchase rights link to delivery date rather than order date.

However, when Qantas restructured the order in 2012, the options and rights were maintained but brought forward in terms of date, available from 2016 (delivery slots). The options would have expired by about 2020 or thereabouts (simply looking at the delivery timeframes at that time). In 2015, the order of the B787-9s was likely exploiting purchase rights, as was the 9th. Given the time since that, it's almost certain that they've now expired.

Making claims such as "QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years." without providing supporting evidence is grounds for deletion of your post. If you are going to make such comments at least back them up.

Qantas still does have purchase rights that they can use.

On 20 August 2015 when Qantas announced the order for the first 8 787-9's, 15 options and 30 purchase rights were included in their own press release

Qantas will retain 15 further options and 30 purchase rights for additional B787s, with significant flexibility over the timing of delivery should they be exercised.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... Dreamliner.

The options were through to 2020 while the purchase rights were through to 2025. It is also known one of those 15 options lapsed of which was reported in February 2018, again reiterating that they purchase rights went out to 2025

According to Reuters, chief executive Alan Joyce told a media gathering in Singapore this week that Qantas was still considering whether it needed more B787s to add to the eight already on order and which are due to arrive by the end of this year. Aside from the fifteen options for B787s deliverable by 2020, Qantas also has purchase rights for thirty more Dreamliners due to deliver through 2025.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... rder-shift

Of course this was all before Covid and when QF wanted to delay the 3 787's they are currently waiting for it is possible that these purchase rights could have either lapsed or a new agreement could have been made

mrkerr7474 wrote:

Kiwings wrote:

a7ala wrote:

What makes you think it didnt work? Increase in frequency and introduction of A350-900 just prior to Covid doesnt suggest it didnt work...

WLG City Council was subsidising to route heavily but refused to release the details. Yes, they operated a 350 but from memory the f/e product on the 777 was a regional SQ product. The fact that SQ have not cone back says it all.
The problem EK would face is they would only be able to sell transtasman to the niminated point (BNE) and then its M.E. UK and Europe. SQ had those markets plus all of Asia - alot more potential pax and still decided not to return.
I know Wellingtonians would love some more service but it simply can not sustain it year round day in, day out.

Whether SQ were able to make it work without the subsidies, no one will know as yes they most likely won't return, well not for a few more years at least. I think it was a good testament to them that they went from a regional 777 to the long haul configured A350 just prior to covid and they increased the flights quickly to 5 weekly and was talk of daily not long before covid came into it.

Ultimately SQ would have wanted to fly the route directly between SIN-WLG but probably couldn't make carrying no freight work for them. That part is my opinion but makes some sense

I'm speculating why WLG got the 3-class A350 is due to having to pass through MEL which is a very high yielding market without the WLG tag. At the time MEL would've been scheduled the premium-configured aircraft on the majority (if not all) of services prior to the COVID shutdowns.

Had SQ operated it through another Australian city that wasn't SYD or MEL, could they have used the regional A350s, that is another question to ask.

SCFlyer wrote:

mrkerr7474 wrote:

Kiwings wrote:

WLG City Council was subsidising to route heavily but refused to release the details. Yes, they operated a 350 but from memory the f/e product on the 777 was a regional SQ product. The fact that SQ have not cone back says it all.
The problem EK would face is they would only be able to sell transtasman to the niminated point (BNE) and then its M.E. UK and Europe. SQ had those markets plus all of Asia - alot more potential pax and still decided not to return.
I know Wellingtonians would love some more service but it simply can not sustain it year round day in, day out.

Whether SQ were able to make it work without the subsidies, no one will know as yes they most likely won't return, well not for a few more years at least. I think it was a good testament to them that they went from a regional 777 to the long haul configured A350 just prior to covid and they increased the flights quickly to 5 weekly and was talk of daily not long before covid came into it.

Ultimately SQ would have wanted to fly the route directly between SIN-WLG but probably couldn't make carrying no freight work for them. That part is my opinion but makes some sense

I'm speculating why WLG got the 3-class A350 is due to having to pass through MEL which is a very high yielding market without the WLG tag. At the time MEL would've been scheduled the premium-configured aircraft on the majority (if not all) of services prior to the COVID shutdowns.

Had SQ operated it through another Australian city that wasn't SYD or MEL, could they have used the regional A350s, that is another question to ask.

Look at it this way, to get the A350 into WLG a significant amount of money was spent for Airbus to bring their test aircraft down to WLG and have it certified for the runway. We dont know who paid for it, but its a lot of effort on the part of Airbus, SQ and WLG for the route and even further strengthens the case for the importance of WLG (other airports you wouldnt need to go through this effort).

If it wasnt going well for them they would have just introduced the A350 to SIN-MEL and then cut WLG off.

Random piece of miscellany #23:

I was curious to know how much traffic a nonstop Tasman flight could capture of the whole market between those points, and thought to use the BITRE stats coupled with the material published in another publication re the number of indirect passengers on key Tasman sectors. I chose two sectors, AKL-PER and AKL-ADL, because in the year in question (2018) both had nonstop flights operated by just one operator (NZ), and both figured highly in the list of indirect passengers. The stats revealed the following (numbers rounded):

AKL-PER :
Total pax 220,000
Nonstop pax: 182,000 (82%)
Indirect pax: 38,000 (18%)

AKL-ADL
Total pax: 120,000
Nonstop pax: 87,000 (72%)
Indirect pax: 33,000 (28%)

In other words, on AKL-PER, where NZ had a monopoly and was operating daily, it took 82% of the available traffic.
On AKL-ADL, where NZ (then) had a monopoly and was operating only 4x weekly, it still took 72% of the available traffic.

Of course, there are many, many variables, not least whether the route is frequented by time-critical business travellers, or less demanding (in terms of schedule) tourists and VFR travellers, and the extent to which a nonstop connection actually generates new traffic. But it does give me hope that if NZ expands its Transtasman offering with routes such as AKL-CBR, then even a few flights a week could nevertheless capture a very decent portion of the traffic. Logical, I guess, but it's interesting to see the logic confirmed by stats.

qf789 wrote:

evanb wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

Not all of them. Quite a few of the purchase rights and options will have lapsed. Obviously, Boeing aren't going to allow a customer to access launch pricing forever.

QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years.

An option reserves a specific place in the production chain and a price. Each option has a fixed date before a decision must be made which is defined by the contract. Options are limited to a relatively shorter timeframe from the order. Generally as a good rule of thumb, options follow a similar pattern and timeframe to the original order. For example, if the original order was 10 plus 5 options and then original 10 are delivered one per quarter of 2.5 years, then the 5 options are likely following the original order on a similar continuing timeline, i.e. each quarter for and additional 1.25 years. Purchase right only fix the price, or the model for which the price is determined. Purchase rights often have a slightly longer timeframe, but even then if the delivery book is longer when the airline wants to use them they may be moot since the the purchase rights link to delivery date rather than order date.

However, when Qantas restructured the order in 2012, the options and rights were maintained but brought forward in terms of date, available from 2016 (delivery slots). The options would have expired by about 2020 or thereabouts (simply looking at the delivery timeframes at that time). In 2015, the order of the B787-9s was likely exploiting purchase rights, as was the 9th. Given the time since that, it's almost certain that they've now expired.

Making claims such as "QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years." without providing supporting evidence is grounds for deletion of your post. If you are going to make such comments at least back them up.

Qantas still does have purchase rights that they can use.

On 20 August 2015 when Qantas announced the order for the first 8 787-9's, 15 options and 30 purchase rights were included in their own press release

Qantas will retain 15 further options and 30 purchase rights for additional B787s, with significant flexibility over the timing of delivery should they be exercised.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... Dreamliner.

The options were through to 2020 while the purchase rights were through to 2025. It is also known one of those 15 options lapsed of which was reported in February 2018, again reiterating that they purchase rights went out to 2025

According to Reuters, chief executive Alan Joyce told a media gathering in Singapore this week that Qantas was still considering whether it needed more B787s to add to the eight already on order and which are due to arrive by the end of this year. Aside from the fifteen options for B787s deliverable by 2020, Qantas also has purchase rights for thirty more Dreamliners due to deliver through 2025.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... rder-shift

Of course this was all before Covid and when QF wanted to delay the 3 787's they are currently waiting for it is possible that these purchase rights could have either lapsed or a new agreement could have been made

Very interesting that QF possibly have 30 purchase rights for 787's to 2025, while initiating an evaluation to replace their 28 A330's.
Boeing's to lose perhaps???

aerohottie wrote:

qf789 wrote:

evanb wrote:

QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years.

An option reserves a specific place in the production chain and a price. Each option has a fixed date before a decision must be made which is defined by the contract. Options are limited to a relatively shorter timeframe from the order. Generally as a good rule of thumb, options follow a similar pattern and timeframe to the original order. For example, if the original order was 10 plus 5 options and then original 10 are delivered one per quarter of 2.5 years, then the 5 options are likely following the original order on a similar continuing timeline, i.e. each quarter for and additional 1.25 years. Purchase right only fix the price, or the model for which the price is determined. Purchase rights often have a slightly longer timeframe, but even then if the delivery book is longer when the airline wants to use them they may be moot since the the purchase rights link to delivery date rather than order date.

However, when Qantas restructured the order in 2012, the options and rights were maintained but brought forward in terms of date, available from 2016 (delivery slots). The options would have expired by about 2020 or thereabouts (simply looking at the delivery timeframes at that time). In 2015, the order of the B787-9s was likely exploiting purchase rights, as was the 9th. Given the time since that, it's almost certain that they've now expired.

Making claims such as "QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years." without providing supporting evidence is grounds for deletion of your post. If you are going to make such comments at least back them up.

Qantas still does have purchase rights that they can use.

On 20 August 2015 when Qantas announced the order for the first 8 787-9's, 15 options and 30 purchase rights were included in their own press release

Qantas will retain 15 further options and 30 purchase rights for additional B787s, with significant flexibility over the timing of delivery should they be exercised.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... Dreamliner.

The options were through to 2020 while the purchase rights were through to 2025. It is also known one of those 15 options lapsed of which was reported in February 2018, again reiterating that they purchase rights went out to 2025

According to Reuters, chief executive Alan Joyce told a media gathering in Singapore this week that Qantas was still considering whether it needed more B787s to add to the eight already on order and which are due to arrive by the end of this year. Aside from the fifteen options for B787s deliverable by 2020, Qantas also has purchase rights for thirty more Dreamliners due to deliver through 2025.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... rder-shift

Of course this was all before Covid and when QF wanted to delay the 3 787's they are currently waiting for it is possible that these purchase rights could have either lapsed or a new agreement could have been made

Very interesting that QF possibly have 30 purchase rights for 787's to 2025, while initiating an evaluation to replace their 28 A330's.
Boeing's to lose perhaps???

I would say so too. Just as when the time comes for the 380 replacement I’d imagine it’s Airbus and the 35K to loose….