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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:20 pm

aerohottie wrote:
qf789 wrote:
evanb wrote:

QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years.

An option reserves a specific place in the production chain and a price. Each option has a fixed date before a decision must be made which is defined by the contract. Options are limited to a relatively shorter timeframe from the order. Generally as a good rule of thumb, options follow a similar pattern and timeframe to the original order. For example, if the original order was 10 plus 5 options and then original 10 are delivered one per quarter of 2.5 years, then the 5 options are likely following the original order on a similar continuing timeline, i.e. each quarter for and additional 1.25 years. Purchase right only fix the price, or the model for which the price is determined. Purchase rights often have a slightly longer timeframe, but even then if the delivery book is longer when the airline wants to use them they may be moot since the the purchase rights link to delivery date rather than order date.

However, when Qantas restructured the order in 2012, the options and rights were maintained but brought forward in terms of date, available from 2016 (delivery slots). The options would have expired by about 2020 or thereabouts (simply looking at the delivery timeframes at that time). In 2015, the order of the B787-9s was likely exploiting purchase rights, as was the 9th. Given the time since that, it's almost certain that they've now expired.


Making claims such as "QF have no remaining options or purchase rights for B787s, and have not for years." without providing supporting evidence is grounds for deletion of your post. If you are going to make such comments at least back them up.

Qantas still does have purchase rights that they can use.

On 20 August 2015 when Qantas announced the order for the first 8 787-9's, 15 options and 30 purchase rights were included in their own press release

Qantas will retain 15 further options and 30 purchase rights for additional B787s, with significant flexibility over the timing of delivery should they be exercised.


https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... Dreamliner.

The options were through to 2020 while the purchase rights were through to 2025. It is also known one of those 15 options lapsed of which was reported in February 2018, again reiterating that they purchase rights went out to 2025

According to Reuters, chief executive Alan Joyce told a media gathering in Singapore this week that Qantas was still considering whether it needed more B787s to add to the eight already on order and which are due to arrive by the end of this year. Aside from the fifteen options for B787s deliverable by 2020, Qantas also has purchase rights for thirty more Dreamliners due to deliver through 2025.


https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... rder-shift

Of course this was all before Covid and when QF wanted to delay the 3 787's they are currently waiting for it is possible that these purchase rights could have either lapsed or a new agreement could have been made


Very interesting that QF possibly have 30 purchase rights for 787's to 2025, while initiating an evaluation to replace their 28 A330's.
Boeing's to lose perhaps???

QF are keen to reduce the number of types in its fleet so it makes sense that the A330 fleet be replaced by the 789 above and the A321XLR below.

In 10 years you'd think the QF fleet would be just 4 types A220, A321, B789 and A35K. It is possible that they will broaden within these types such as A225s (when it happens), A322 (if it happens), B78X and A359 (won't be both A359 and 78X) but there is realistically no likelihood of other types such as 737MAX, A330NEO or 779.
 
Sylus
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:55 am

Bonza flights now finally on sale - and yes only via the app! I've just booked MCY-TSV one way for $65 for April... let's see how they go
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:12 am

Sylus wrote:
Bonza flights now finally on sale - and yes only via the app! I've just booked MCY-TSV one way for $65 for April... let's see how they go


$320 return for AVV-MCY with checked bags in March, not bad value in the current climate. Frequencies not the best for a short trip, but it's fine if you're doing a longer trip of a week or so.

ABX-MCY for a week in April with checked bags, $190 return - almost worth it to drive up to Albury from Melbourne, long-term parking would certainly be a lot cheaper!!
Last edited by melpax on Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:15 am

melpax wrote:
Sylus wrote:
Bonza flights now finally on sale - and yes only via the app! I've just booked MCY-TSV one way for $65 for April... let's see how they go


$320 return for AVV-MCY with checked bags in March, not bad value in the current climate. Frequencies not the best for a short trip, but it's fine if you're doing a longer trip of a week or so.

It will be interesting to see how Jetstar responds. Of all the existing airlines, it is Jetstar's core market most targeted by Bonza.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:24 am

tullamarine wrote:
melpax wrote:
Sylus wrote:
Bonza flights now finally on sale - and yes only via the app! I've just booked MCY-TSV one way for $65 for April... let's see how they go


$320 return for AVV-MCY with checked bags in March, not bad value in the current climate. Frequencies not the best for a short trip, but it's fine if you're doing a longer trip of a week or so.

It will be interesting to see how Jetstar responds. Of all the existing airlines, it is Jetstar's core market most targeted by Bonza.


Although JQ isn't competing on most routes by Bonza.

Most JQ could do is sell budget fares on 'through' itineraries (2 flights) on similar routings (although it's time consuming with the required baggage collection and then re-checking in bags at the connecting airport for some passengers).
 
tullamarine
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Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:57 am

SCFlyer wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
melpax wrote:

$320 return for AVV-MCY with checked bags in March, not bad value in the current climate. Frequencies not the best for a short trip, but it's fine if you're doing a longer trip of a week or so.

It will be interesting to see how Jetstar responds. Of all the existing airlines, it is Jetstar's core market most targeted by Bonza.


Although JQ isn't competing on most routes by Bonza.

Most JQ could do is sell budget fares on 'through' itineraries (2 flights) on similar routings (although it's time consuming with the required baggage collection and then re-checking in bags at the connecting airport for some passengers).

At this stage you are correct; there isn't a lot, if any, direct crossover but when it comes to price conscious leisure travellers, MEL-MCY and AVV-MCY are very much competing routes. The bigger threat of Bonza would be if it launches a route like AVV-OOL which could take some yield from MEL-AVV where JQ, VA and ZL have all done very well in the past year.

Bonza has launched a route to MKY from MEL on the back of generous airport fees from Mackay City Council. Mackay has languished in recent years despite its location at the southern end of the Whitsunday Passage. It will be interesting to see what Bonza can do with the local council to make it a competitive destination against its most logical competitor Proserpine. HTI is a theoretical competitor but due to its location can get away with much higher fares.
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 5:39 am

a7ala wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:

Whether SQ were able to make it work without the subsidies, no one will know as yes they most likely won't return, well not for a few more years at least. I think it was a good testament to them that they went from a regional 777 to the long haul configured A350 just prior to covid and they increased the flights quickly to 5 weekly and was talk of daily not long before covid came into it.

Ultimately SQ would have wanted to fly the route directly between SIN-WLG but probably couldn't make carrying no freight work for them. That part is my opinion but makes some sense


I'm speculating why WLG got the 3-class A350 is due to having to pass through MEL which is a very high yielding market without the WLG tag. At the time MEL would've been scheduled the premium-configured aircraft on the majority (if not all) of services prior to the COVID shutdowns.

Had SQ operated it through another Australian city that wasn't SYD or MEL, could they have used the regional A350s, that is another question to ask.


Look at it this way, to get the A350 into WLG a significant amount of money was spent for Airbus to bring their test aircraft down to WLG and have it certified for the runway. We dont know who paid for it, but its a lot of effort on the part of Airbus, SQ and WLG for the route and even further strengthens the case for the importance of WLG (other airports you wouldnt need to go through this effort).

If it wasnt going well for them they would have just introduced the A350 to SIN-MEL and then cut WLG off.


Spot on, fully agree with this.
 
TG788
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:40 am

I can’t recall seeing this mentioned before, apologies if it has come up. Tim Clark in this article suggests he is interested in DRW with the A350.
 
LTEN11
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:01 am

TG788 wrote:
I can’t recall seeing this mentioned before, apologies if it has come up. Tim Clark in this article suggests he is interested in DRW with the A350.


DRW, he might be interested in it, but the bean counters won't be. Pretty much everything in DRW is focused towards Asia and whilst the mining industry has grown exponentially in recent times, that would not be enough to draw a carrier such as EK with an aircraft such as the A350. You just need to look at how SQ serve DRW, with a 737 3 x weekly in the low season and 5 x weekly in the high, too see that there is very little premium demand and not a lot of low yielding either.
 
a7ala
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:15 am

LTEN11 wrote:
TG788 wrote:
I can’t recall seeing this mentioned before, apologies if it has come up. Tim Clark in this article suggests he is interested in DRW with the A350.


DRW, he might be interested in it, but the bean counters won't be. Pretty much everything in DRW is focused towards Asia and whilst the mining industry has grown exponentially in recent times, that would not be enough to draw a carrier such as EK with an aircraft such as the A350. You just need to look at how SQ serve DRW, with a 737 3 x weekly in the low season and 5 x weekly in the high, too see that there is very little premium demand and not a lot of low yielding either.


QF and EK have applied for extension of their JV. I can only imagine hes talking it up for the regulators. Surely a return to ADL and starting CBR would be smarter moves (not saying CBR is a smart move).
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 9:28 am

a7ala wrote:
QF and EK have applied for extension of their JV. I can only imagine hes talking it up for the regulators. Surely a return to ADL and starting CBR would be smarter moves (not saying CBR is a smart move).


I'm sure QR are going to be delighted by that, Al Baker doesn't seem to like this one bit! :)
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 9:40 am

Appears -VQW will be the 1st A320 to sport the revised JQ colour scheme.

Hopefully the revised scheme improves their OTP.

Flight JQ7992 from Melbourne to Townsville
https://fr24.com/JST7992/2efc7408


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 9:54 am

ClassicLover wrote:
a7ala wrote:
QF and EK have applied for extension of their JV. I can only imagine hes talking it up for the regulators. Surely a return to ADL and starting CBR would be smarter moves (not saying CBR is a smart move).


I'm sure QR are going to be delighted by that, Al Baker doesn't seem to like this one bit! :)


Would not surprise me if QR surprises the AusAv community and ends up with small stake in VA once Bain gets their first IPO up later in the year..
 
YSSYplanespoter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:51 pm

EK413 wrote:
Appears -VQW will be the 1st A320 to sport the revised JQ colour scheme.

Hopefully the revised scheme improves their OTP.

Flight JQ7992 from Melbourne to Townsville
https://fr24.com/JST7992/2efc7408


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Considering it arrived 2 hours late, I'll say it's already on the mend!
 
QF744ER
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:33 pm

EK413 wrote:
Appears -VQW will be the 1st A320 to sport the revised JQ colour scheme.

Hopefully the revised scheme improves their OTP.

Flight JQ7992 from Melbourne to Townsville
https://fr24.com/JST7992/2efc7408


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I need to double check but VQW might be transferring across to NWK.
 
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vhqpa
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:13 pm

Sylus wrote:
Bonza flights now finally on sale - and yes only via the app! I've just booked MCY-TSV one way for $65 for April... let's see how they go


I’m planning on travelling down to the Sunshine Coast to visit my sister mid year, I was initially planning on driving down, but if the operating days line up well, flying TSV-MCY seems compelling. I’m tempted to try them out. But then again I’m quite sceptical on their how sustainable their business plan is, a lot can happen in six months.
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 5:58 pm

QF744ER wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Appears -VQW will be the 1st A320 to sport the revised JQ colour scheme.

Hopefully the revised scheme improves their OTP.

Flight JQ7992 from Melbourne to Townsville
https://fr24.com/JST7992/2efc7408


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I need to double check but VQW might be transferring across to NWK.

-VQW is an 18yr old frame & based on age I’d say you are most likely on the mark.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
lsmi4126
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:14 pm

QF A380 VH-OQI is on its way from VCV to LAX. This is the last QF A380 to leave VCV and rejoin the fleet (excluding the ill-fated OQE and OQF).

QF6023 from Victorville to Los Angeles https://fr24.com/QFA6023/2efe2e3a
 
QF744ER
Posts: 518
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2004 7:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:36 am

EK413 wrote:
QF744ER wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Appears -VQW will be the 1st A320 to sport the revised JQ colour scheme.

Hopefully the revised scheme improves their OTP.

Flight JQ7992 from Melbourne to Townsville
https://fr24.com/JST7992/2efc7408


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I need to double check but VQW might be transferring across to NWK.

-VQW is an 18yr old frame & based on age I’d say you are most likely on the mark.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Confirmed there’s another 3-4 transferring across from JQ to NWK.
 
JJWess
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:13 am

lsmi4126 wrote:
QF A380 VH-OQI is on its way from VCV to LAX. This is the last QF A380 to leave VCV and rejoin the fleet (excluding the ill-fated OQE and OQF).

QF6023 from Victorville to Los Angeles https://fr24.com/QFA6023/2efe2e3a


So those last two A380’s have 0 chance of ever coming back correct?
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:14 am

lsmi4126 wrote:
QF A380 VH-OQI is on its way from VCV to LAX. This is the last QF A380 to leave VCV and rejoin the fleet (excluding the ill-fated OQE and OQF).

QF6023 from Victorville to Los Angeles https://fr24.com/QFA6023/2efe2e3a


Does anyone think QF will regret getting rid of both or at least 1 of these frames?

What was the reasoning again they got rid of OQE and OQF instead of the older frames?
 
a320fan
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:27 am

So Bonzas flights are on sale, and it wasn’t a misreading or miscommunication of their pre launch press releases, flights are only for sale through the app. Seems like such a shortsighted and stupid business decision. I’m 100% of the smart phone generation but I’m not going to be booking flights or holidays on an app, that’s something I’m going to be jumping on a computer for. Then there’s the older generation who on their regional to MCY routes wouldn’t be an insignificant portion, who are likely to either be not confident in using their smartphones capabilities or maybe even don’t own one at all. Seems silly to make it harder to buy your product.
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:27 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
Does anyone think QF will regret getting rid of both or at least 1 of these frames?

What was the reasoning again they got rid of OQE and OQF instead of the older frames?


I'd say they most likely would be. Remember though that when COVID first hit, the A380 fleet was planned to be in storage for at least 3 years, given that no one knew how things would pan out. And a fair chunk of the senior A380 flight crew took redundancy packages at the time as well.
 
Kiwiandrew
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:39 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
lsmi4126 wrote:
QF A380 VH-OQI is on its way from VCV to LAX. This is the last QF A380 to leave VCV and rejoin the fleet (excluding the ill-fated OQE and OQF).

QF6023 from Victorville to Los Angeles https://fr24.com/QFA6023/2efe2e3a


Does anyone think QF will regret getting rid of both or at least 1 of these frames?

What was the reasoning again they got rid of OQE and OQF instead of the older frames?


If I have understood correctly , they were the only two aircraft which had not already undergone an expensive replacement of the landing gear ( if I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will be quick to let me know :-) )
 
YSSYplanespoter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:49 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
lsmi4126 wrote:
Does anyone think QF will regret getting rid of both or at least 1 of these frames?


I also believe so too. It appears to me that this is just a knee-jerk reaction in believe that COVID was going to last forever (clearly that's not the case, and was never going to be the case)
 
Deano969
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:08 am

YSSYplanespoter wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
lsmi4126 wrote:
Does anyone think QF will regret getting rid of both or at least 1 of these frames?


I also believe so too. It appears to me that this is just a knee-jerk reaction in believe that COVID was going to last forever (clearly that's not the case, and was never going to be the case)


Couldn't they score a bargain by picking up a few on the second hand market ?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:33 am

Deano969 wrote:
YSSYplanespoter wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:


I also believe so too. It appears to me that this is just a knee-jerk reaction in believe that COVID was going to last forever (clearly that's not the case, and was never going to be the case)


Couldn't they score a bargain by picking up a few on the second hand market ?

Given the different layout each airline has, it is often very expensive to bring such an aircraft into your fleet. These differences typically revolve around BSE (Buyer Supplied Equipment) and includes things such as galleys, toilets, IFE systems etc. Bringing an odd layout means seat configurations are different even if you upgrade so the same seat design is used. It can also mean the trolleys in the galley are different so the catering arrangements can be further complicated.

This is why, despite booming demand, no one took the opportunity to acquire the lightly used and, apparently, well maintained MH A380s.
 
lsmi4126
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:53 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:50 am

[photoid][/photoid]
JJWess wrote:
lsmi4126 wrote:
QF A380 VH-OQI is on its way from VCV to LAX. This is the last QF A380 to leave VCV and rejoin the fleet (excluding the ill-fated OQE and OQF).

QF6023 from Victorville to Los Angeles https://fr24.com/QFA6023/2efe2e3a


So those last two A380’s have 0 chance of ever coming back correct?


OQF has already started to be stripped, presumably for spares.

There're photos on this thread from a few months ago with her missing her radome, an engine or two and a few belly panels (I assume to access packs).
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:20 am

lsmi4126 wrote:
QF A380 VH-OQI is on its way from VCV to LAX. This is the last QF A380 to leave VCV and rejoin the fleet (excluding the ill-fated OQE and OQF).

QF6023 from Victorville to Los Angeles https://fr24.com/QFA6023/2efe2e3a


What will be done on it in LAX and how long until its ready for revenue service?
 
NZ801
Posts: 235
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:31 am

a320fan wrote:
So Bonzas flights are on sale, and it wasn’t a misreading or miscommunication of their pre launch press releases, flights are only for sale through the app. Seems like such a shortsighted and stupid business decision. I’m 100% of the smart phone generation but I’m not going to be booking flights or holidays on an app, that’s something I’m going to be jumping on a computer for. Then there’s the older generation who on their regional to MCY routes wouldn’t be an insignificant portion, who are likely to either be not confident in using their smartphones capabilities or maybe even don’t own one at all. Seems silly to make it harder to buy your product.


Wow! Writing off an entire approach by a business simply because their approach doesn’t fit your preferences or ageist views. :roll:
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 335
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:45 am

tullamarine wrote:
Deano969 wrote:
YSSYplanespoter wrote:

I also believe so too. It appears to me that this is just a knee-jerk reaction in believe that COVID was going to last forever (clearly that's not the case, and was never going to be the case)


Couldn't they score a bargain by picking up a few on the second hand market ?

Given the different layout each airline has, it is often very expensive to bring such an aircraft into your fleet. These differences typically revolve around BSE (Buyer Supplied Equipment) and includes things such as galleys, toilets, IFE systems etc. Bringing an odd layout means seat configurations are different even if you upgrade so the same seat design is used. It can also mean the trolleys in the galley are different so the catering arrangements can be further complicated.

This is why, despite booming demand, no one took the opportunity to acquire the lightly used and, apparently, well maintained MH A380s.


Would it have been possible to reinstate 1 of the aircraft? Or had parts been removed from both since they made the decision?

Personally they almost could have just used one for parts and kept the other flying. Hopefully it'll all work out with their decision!
 
tullamarine
Posts: 3835
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:46 am

qf2220 wrote:
lsmi4126 wrote:
QF A380 VH-OQI is on its way from VCV to LAX. This is the last QF A380 to leave VCV and rejoin the fleet (excluding the ill-fated OQE and OQF).

QF6023 from Victorville to Los Angeles https://fr24.com/QFA6023/2efe2e3a


What will be done on it in LAX and how long until its ready for revenue service?

I believe basic airworthy checks are done in LAX including a landing gear swing. Once these are completed, it will relocate to Abu Dhabi for a more major maintenance check as well as refitting with the updated cabin layout (new J & W, updated F & Y) as well as a repaint if required.

It will probably be 3-4 months at least before it returns to service.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:15 am

tullamarine wrote:
I believe basic airworthy checks are done in LAX including a landing gear swing. Once these are completed, it will relocate to Abu Dhabi for a more major maintenance check as well as refitting with the updated cabin layout (new J & W, updated F & Y) as well as a repaint if required.

It will probably be 3-4 months at least before it returns to service.


And the wing spar checks.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:20 am

tullamarine wrote:
QF are keen to reduce the number of types in its fleet so it makes sense that the A330 fleet be replaced by the 789 above and the A321XLR below.

In 10 years you'd think the QF fleet would be just 4 types A220, A321, B789 and A35K. It is possible that they will broaden within these types such as A225s (when it happens), A322 (if it happens), B78X and A359 (won't be both A359 and 78X) but there is realistically no likelihood of other types such as 737MAX, A330NEO or 779.


I guess 10 years is a long time in this business these days, but the A330 freighters are getting a fair bit of capital investment with their conversions. Given that freighters typically fly low cycles as well as the capital investment in them, it's likely that they'll still be in service in a decade.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:31 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
Does anyone think QF will regret getting rid of both or at least 1 of these frames?


Personally doubt it. They were always trying to find routes for the last two frames.

It never really worked on DFW-SYD due to limitations (and that effectively used two frames).
Using dual 787s on SYD/MEL-DFW is much better.

And I'm not sure if HKG will develop the need for holiday 380 services ever again.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 5:59 am

evanb wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
QF are keen to reduce the number of types in its fleet so it makes sense that the A330 fleet be replaced by the 789 above and the A321XLR below.

In 10 years you'd think the QF fleet would be just 4 types A220, A321, B789 and A35K. It is possible that they will broaden within these types such as A225s (when it happens), A322 (if it happens), B78X and A359 (won't be both A359 and 78X) but there is realistically no likelihood of other types such as 737MAX, A330NEO or 779.


I guess 10 years is a long time in this business these days, but the A330 freighters are getting a fair bit of capital investment with their conversions. Given that freighters typically fly low cycles as well as the capital investment in them, it's likely that they'll still be in service in a decade.

Yes, you are correct about the A330 freighters which will probably still be around but I was more speculating about the passenger fleet just as I don't think many think of the 763F when assessing the current fleet. With cross-crew certification possible with the A350 or A32X, it is probably less hassle keeping the A330F than the 767F which is a crewing orphan in the current fleet. Maintenance and rotables are a hassle but freighters are often older types than mainline fleet.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:01 am

moa999 wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
Does anyone think QF will regret getting rid of both or at least 1 of these frames?


Personally doubt it. They were always trying to find routes for the last two frames.

It never really worked on DFW-SYD due to limitations (and that effectively used two frames).
Using dual 787s on SYD/MEL-DFW is much better.

And I'm not sure if HKG will develop the need for holiday 380 services ever again.


I suspect that had DFW not had restrictions on the westbound we could have seen the whale stick around. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll see it anywhere other than MEL/SYD-LHR/LAX. I can see MEL-SIN coming back but agreed HKG sounds better served with dreamliners. Maybe we’ll see more SYD-LAX flights at subdaily frequencies.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:41 am

tullamarine wrote:
Yes, you are correct about the A330 freighters which will probably still be around but I was more speculating about the passenger fleet just as I don't think many think of the 763F when assessing the current fleet. With cross-crew certification possible with the A350 or A32X, it is probably less hassle keeping the A330F than the 767F which is a crewing orphan in the current fleet. Maintenance and rotables are a hassle but freighters are often older types than mainline fleet.


Cross Crew Qualification is possible across all (or maybe just most) contemporary Airbus products. The A350 has the Cross Crew Qualification approval to both A330 and A320 from EASA, but I'm not sure if CASA have allowed it. CASA are traditionally quite conservative so I wouldn't be surprised.

However, it's not a cross certification, but allows much quicker and cheaper transitions with only Operator Difference Requirements training. But I think the point you're making is that crew can hold multiple certifications relatively easily. That said, knowing Qantas, they might not likely exploit this and may still operate seperate crews for different types. Many operators don't employ it for a number of reasons, for example many airlines pay pilots different rates based on aircraft size and thus may have a seperate pool as a result, however it's pretty quick and easy to switch. One airline that did employ the multiple certification was SAA and many of the pilot pool flew the whole A319/A320/A330-200/A330-300/A340-300/A340-600 fleet!

It won't be an orphan though. At this stage, they have plans for two and I wouldn't be surprised to see this grow. I'm not sure how Qantas currently crew the freighter aircraft. Are they seperate pilot pools?
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:42 am

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
moa999 wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
Does anyone think QF will regret getting rid of both or at least 1 of these frames?


Personally doubt it. They were always trying to find routes for the last two frames.

It never really worked on DFW-SYD due to limitations (and that effectively used two frames).
Using dual 787s on SYD/MEL-DFW is much better.

And I'm not sure if HKG will develop the need for holiday 380 services ever again.


I suspect that had DFW not had restrictions on the westbound we could have seen the whale stick around. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll see it anywhere other than MEL/SYD-LHR/LAX. I can see MEL-SIN coming back but agreed HKG sounds better served with dreamliners. Maybe we’ll see more SYD-LAX flights at subdaily frequencies.

I’d say the A380 will continue to be the backbone serving SYD/MEL-LAX, SYD-SIN-LHR,MEL-SIN until A350’s are introduced.

As many already mention QF will most likely top-up their A350 order book with at least 8 frames to serve SYD/MEL-HKG (once it recovers), SYD-HND unless QF manage to to secure additional slot to serve MEL/BNE-HND daily, SYD-JNB, MEL-PER-LHR.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:54 am

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
I suspect that had DFW not had restrictions on the westbound we could have seen the whale stick around. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll see it anywhere other than MEL/SYD-LHR/LAX. I can see MEL-SIN coming back but agreed HKG sounds better served with dreamliners. Maybe we’ll see more SYD-LAX flights at subdaily frequencies.


It's difficult to compare since QF have rejigged their whole North American operation quite a bit. Certainly a big loss of capacity going from daily A380 to daily B789 on SYD-DFW, but somewhat made up by the new 3x weekly MEL-DFW. While they loose F-class, and a lot of Y-class capacity, C-class is down less than Y-class capacity (both absolute and relative) when you take SYD/MEL-DFW together (now 10x weekly).

Obviously DFW works well for them as a hub with possibly better feed than they had or have at SFO or LAX (ostensibly, MEL-DFW is replacing MEL-SFO). What may be interesting is to see them increase MEL-DFW to daily. At that point C-class will be higher than the daily A380 (although same as combined F- and C-class) and Y-class broadly similar. So the daily SYD-DFW and MEL-DFW can replace the daily A380 while connecting both SYD and MEL non-stop. At the same time, they eliminate the operational challenges of the A380 on the route, freeing it up for routes more within its operational envelop.
 
evanb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:08 am

EK413 wrote:
I’d say the A380 will continue to be the backbone serving SYD/MEL-LAX, SYD-SIN-LHR,MEL-SIN until A350’s are introduced.

As many already mention QF will most likely top-up their A350 order book with at least 8 frames to serve SYD/MEL-HKG (once it recovers), SYD-HND unless QF manage to to secure additional slot to serve MEL/BNE-HND daily, SYD-JNB, MEL-PER-LHR.


Agreed. Once all 10 are back in the fleet we'll vert likely see SYD-SIN-LHR, SYD-LAX and MEL-LAX return to daily A380. However, that is only 7 frames. There are so many options where the other 3 may be used.

BNE-LAX is a possibilty (2 aircraft), and then the 10th goes to either MEL-SIN and/or SYD-HKG, or both MEL-SIN and SYD-HKG go A380 and they run the fleet under utilised (not a crazy idea seeing how they are getting older).

SYD-JNB could also go A380 part of the year, or even the whole year at lower frequency. The lack of non-stop competition means that frequency advantage isn't as important. The capacity reduction from the B744 retirement, combined with SAA's exit and the challenges with PER-JNB means that the capacity of the A380 could come in handy, nevermind the operational advantage of a quad at JNB. Scheduling is also a good fit turning around from/to SYD-SIN-LHR-SIN-SYD.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:51 am

HKG will take a long while to recover before there's any form of F demand. Unless if there's any F demand out of the BNE-LAX, I'd say QF will sell the F seats as J on the route. Thus HKG or BNE-LAX will likely be a 3-class service (with F seats sold as J) if both routes were to be up-gauged to a A380.

But I also have my doubts on the HKG recovery, going to take a while longer before justifying up-gauges. I think QF would bring BNE-HKG back at less than daily before up-gauging any of the existing HKG routes to A380s.
 
Gangurru
Posts: 160
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:30 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:53 am

a320fan wrote:
So Bonzas flights are on sale, and it wasn’t a misreading or miscommunication of their pre launch press releases, flights are only for sale through the app. Seems like such a shortsighted and stupid business decision. I’m 100% of the smart phone generation but I’m not going to be booking flights or holidays on an app, that’s something I’m going to be jumping on a computer for. Then there’s the older generation who on their regional to MCY routes wouldn’t be an insignificant portion, who are likely to either be not confident in using their smartphones capabilities or maybe even don’t own one at all. Seems silly to make it harder to buy your product.


Hmmm. I’m of the rotary phone generation. Booking travel used to involve quite a few steps, including getting to a travel agent, remembering to get to the bank before weekend closing to pay said agent, phoning up to reconfirm flights and not losing paper tickets before you travelled. We also had to get to the airport early so we didn’t get stuck with seats in the smoking section.

Maybe we’d embrace the simplicity of booking via an app?
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 335
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:54 am

EK413 wrote:
FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
moa999 wrote:

Personally doubt it. They were always trying to find routes for the last two frames.

It never really worked on DFW-SYD due to limitations (and that effectively used two frames).
Using dual 787s on SYD/MEL-DFW is much better.

And I'm not sure if HKG will develop the need for holiday 380 services ever again.


I suspect that had DFW not had restrictions on the westbound we could have seen the whale stick around. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll see it anywhere other than MEL/SYD-LHR/LAX. I can see MEL-SIN coming back but agreed HKG sounds better served with dreamliners. Maybe we’ll see more SYD-LAX flights at subdaily frequencies.

I’d say the A380 will continue to be the backbone serving SYD/MEL-LAX, SYD-SIN-LHR,MEL-SIN until A350’s are introduced.

As many already mention QF will most likely top-up their A350 order book with at least 8 frames to serve SYD/MEL-HKG (once it recovers), SYD-HND unless QF manage to to secure additional slot to serve MEL/BNE-HND daily, SYD-JNB, MEL-PER-LHR.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


This makes a lot of sense. As the current A350 order if they're replacing the A380s one for one, that's surely not allowing to cover all the routes and growth so another 8 top up makes sense
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3649
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:27 am

Interesting that I just noticed that at least one of Bonza’s aircraft still have a LOT logo on one of the walls at the front door. Yes the plane was originally going to LOT but one would have expected that to be removed by now.

With only a few days before launching, Bonza will be interesting to watch.
 
evanb
Posts: 1397
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:48 am

SCFlyer wrote:
HKG will take a long while to recover before there's any form of F demand. Unless if there's any F demand out of the BNE-LAX, I'd say QF will sell the F seats as J on the route. Thus HKG or BNE-LAX will likely be a 3-class service (with F seats sold as J) if both routes were to be up-gauged to a A380.

But I also have my doubts on the HKG recovery, going to take a while longer before justifying up-gauges. I think QF would bring BNE-HKG back at less than daily before up-gauging any of the existing HKG routes to A380s.


Agreed. QF have a history of selling F as C. For example, they sold F as C on SYD-JNB for many years. It'll still be a while until all 10 A380s are back in service so it gives QF a fair bit of time. Based on the previous aircraft, with VH-OQI not yet even in AUH, it could be closed to the end of the year until all 10 are back and that isn't even accounting for wing spar checks and/or C-checks on the aircraft currently in service in the coming months.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
Posts: 730
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:39 am

Even for the HKG seasonal A380 upgauge, F was sold as J for the longest time.

Interesting point on JNB, I still think a 3-4 weekly additional frequency to LAX would help make up for the lost F capacity to the US. The question is can the market soak up the capacity with UA greatly upping flights, even DL has added capacity and that was at the expense of VA.

QF will definitely order more, if the 12 orders are for SYD/MEL-JFK/LHR plus the announced PER-LHR upgauge, probably followed by SYD-CDG. Theres a list of routes that would be top contenders for the A35K. I can see SYD-DFW and SYD-HND shifting over for example. There will be a much greater need than for the A380 fleet.

Regarding the A330 replacement, I’m very surprised nothing has been announced yet. But with an established fleet of 787 I don’t see how it can go any other way, it just doesn’t make sense to not simplify it further. I’m sure there is an alternate universe where QF went for A330neo/A350 for their regional and longhaul needs but we’re not in said universe.
 
YSSYplanespoter
Posts: 66
Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:39 am

I can also see a need for an A35K to Singapore as well, as business returns to pre-COVID levels and beyond.

As for the A330 replacement, I wonder how QF's competition is going. I agree that the airline will probably just order some more 787s.
 
JJWess
Posts: 211
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:30 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:46 am

I had doubts about QF going with the 787 to replace the A330’s due to delivery issues etc, but after just reading an article on Boeing and how they plan to hire thousands into their manufacturing plants… I have new hope.

But it’ll come down to who has the best deal I reckon. Isn’t the CFO heading the A330 replacement project anyway?
 
evanb
Posts: 1397
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - January 2023

Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:12 pm

JJWess wrote:
I had doubts about QF going with the 787 to replace the A330’s due to delivery issues etc, but after just reading an article on Boeing and how they plan to hire thousands into their manufacturing plants… I have new hope.

But it’ll come down to who has the best deal I reckon. Isn’t the CFO heading the A330 replacement project anyway?


The delivery issues are down to certification/regulatory challenges, not productivity.

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